Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephen Hall, Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Russian and Post-Soviet Politics, University of Bath
The acclamation of Alexander Lukashenko as Belarus president for a seventh straight term was confirmed on January 26. The electoral authorities announced that the man known as “Europe’s last dictator” – the only president the country has had since it held its first “democratic” election in 1994 – had won 87% of the vote.
Most western leaders have dismissed the result as a “sham”. Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, posted on X that “the people of Belarus had no choice”, while the Polish foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, commented that he was surprised “only” 87.6% of the electorate had voted for Lukashenko: “Will the rest fit inside the prisons?” he asked.
But the result was never really in doubt. Sikorski’s barb about jailing opponent figures is right on the money. Many of Belarus’s main opposition figures are already behind bars and the rest are in exile. And, just to make sure of things, well before the campaign started – in January 2024 – Lukashenko changed the law so that only those people who were had lived permanently in Belarus for 20 years could stand for the presidency. This meant that the most prominent opposition leader not now in prison in Belarus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, was ineligible.
Tsikhanouskaya fled after the election to avoid the fate of her husband, Sergei Tsikhanouski, who was arrested in 2020, two days after declaring his candidacy for the election. He has since been jailed for 18 years on charges of “preparation of mass disorder” and “incitement to hatred”. Tsikhanouskaya was herself tried in absentia and sentenced to 15 years for high treason, inciting social hatred, attempts to seize power, forming an “extremist” group and harming national security.
So with no real opposition allowed to stand, Lukashenko’s reelection was pretty much a foregone conclusion. A survey conducted by the think tank Chatham House at the end of 2024 found that about one-third of Belarusians said they supported Lukashenko – and most of these people also commented they thought the country was going in the right direction.
Keeping Belarus out of the war was a major factor for these voters. A further 41% professed to be neutral. When it came to electoral integrity, 36% agreed or somewhat agreed that the result was predetermined. Among pro-democracy voters that number rose to 77%.
Government in exile
Tsikhanouskaya leads a government in exile from Lithuania, heading what her team has called a “united transitional cabinet”, tasked with “ensuring the transition of power from dictatorship to democracy, and promoting fair and free elections”. The cabinet is supported by a national coordinating council of 70 members which is elected on a two-yearly basis and who main function is to establish the ground rules for a “ democratic and rule-of-law-based state”.
Tsikhanouskaya’s efforts have been supported by a range of countries, including the US which, in August 2020, urged the Lukashanko regime to “actively engage Belarusian society, including through the newly established National Coordination Council, in a way that reflects what the Belarusian people are demanding, for the sake of Belarus’ future, and for a successful Belarus”.
But being a leader in exile means it is difficult to bridge the barrier to Belarusians at home.
Political prisoners
Other opposition figures are mainly still in prison. Sergei Tsikhanouski was recently was charged with violating prison rules, which will increase his existing 18-year sentence.
His fellow opposition leader, Viktar Babaryka – who was also arrested in the run-up to the 2020 election – was given 14 years on trumped-up up charges. His assistant Maria Kolesnikova, who took over from him as a protest leader, was jailed after publicly destroying her passport so she could not be forcibly exiled by the authorities.
Although not part of the political opposition another prominent figure, Ales Bialiatski, a human rights activist who won the Nobel peace prize in 2022 was sentenced to ten years in jail in 2023 for smuggling and allegedly financing the 2020 protests.
Overtures to the west
Since the summer of 2024, 200 political prisoners have been released, a possible sign that Lukashenko wants to reset relations with the west. He did something similar in 2015, the year after Russia annexed Crimea.
At the time his release of six opposition activists was seen as a possible sign the Belarus leader was concerned his country could be at risk from Russian aggression and he was looking to keep with the EU and the US.
Kolesnikova was recently allowed a prison visit from her father for the first time in nearly two years. Meanwhile a journalist was given access to Babaryka in jail and allowed to record a video of the jailed dissident for his daughter.
If the release of prisoners and reappearance of the two jailed dissidents are indeed an attempt to reset relations with the west, the fact he still has more than 1,000 political prisoners behind bars will give Lukashenko plenty of diplomatic leeway.
But given Lukashenko’s close alignment with Russian president Vladimir Putin and the fact that he allowed Belarus to be used as a launch pad for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is unlikely that many western countries will be won over.
Lukashenko has shown himself to be an irritant many times over the years. In 2021, the year before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Belarus leader was roundly criticised for trying to spark a migrant crisis in neighbouring Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Belarus was reportedly flying Iraqi and Afghan migrants from the Middle East and bussing them to the border where Belarusian troops were trying to push them across.
As far as armed resistance to Lukashenko is concerned, the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, a group of Belarusian volunteers has been fighting as part of Ukraine’s armed forces since March 2022. The regiment’s stated aim is to help Ukraine fight off Russia and become part of the EU and Nato and to strive for Belarus to do the same.
The next election is due to be held in 2030. Alexander Lukashenko will be 75.
Stephen Hall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
– ref. Belarus election: how ‘Europe’s last dictator’ held onto power as his opponents were jailed or exiled – https://theconversation.com/belarus-election-how-europes-last-dictator-held-onto-power-as-his-opponents-were-jailed-or-exiled-248962