The Global Barometers record a small increase in October, largely offsetting the previous month’s decline. The Coincident Barometer continues to signal economic development below the medium-term average, while the leading barometer continues to point to a normalisation of growth in the coming months.
The Coincident Global Economic Barometer increases by 2.1 points in October, to reach 93.8 points, while the Leading Barometer gains 1.9 points, to 102.5 points. The rise in both indicators is mainly driven by the results of the Asia, Pacific & Africa region.
“Since December 2022, the leading global barometer has been more positive or less negative than the coincident global barometer. For some time now, both indicators have been moving more or less sideways. This is historically quite unique and suggests that general expectations of economic normalisation seem to be repeatedly disappointed. At present, the situation in the Middle East seems to be preventing a real recovery in the global economy. We remain hopeful that solutions will be found that will allow us to move forward and that the assessment of the situation will improve significantly in the near future”, evaluates Jan-Egbert Sturm, Director of KOF Swiss Economic Institute.
Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors
The gain in the Coincident Barometer in October is the result of a 2.2-point positive contribution of the coincident indicator for the Asia, Pacific & Africa region, while Europe remains stable, and the Western Hemisphere contributes slightly negatively with -0.1 points. After losing ground between February and July of this year, the indicator for the Asia, Pacific & Africa region has stopped falling, and now fluctuates between 88 and 92 points, signalling the difficulty of the region to regain the increasing tendency observed in 2023.
All the Coincident sector indicators increase in October, with Construction standing out. Economy (aggregated business and consumer evaluations) remains at the lowest level among the sector indicators.
Leading Barometer – regions and sectors
The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average. In October, the Asia, Pacific & Africa region and the Western Hemisphere contribute positively to the aggregate result with 1.7 and 0.4 points, respectively, while Europe contributes in the opposite direction with -0.2 points.
In October, all the Leading sector indicators increase, with Construction standing out for a gain of over 10 points, reaching a level that reflects a positive outlook.