Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 9, 2024
Updated: Wed Oct 9 08:32:03 UTC 2024
.
D4
Sat, Oct 12, 2024 – Sun, Oct 13, 2024
D7
Tue, Oct 15, 2024 – Wed, Oct 16, 2024
D5
Sun, Oct 13, 2024 – Mon, Oct 14, 2024
D8
Wed, Oct 16, 2024 – Thu, Oct 17, 2024
D6
Mon, Oct 14, 2024 – Tue, Oct 15, 2024
(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 090830
SPC AC 090830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024
Valid 121200Z – 171200Z
…DISCUSSION…
Overall upper pattern across the central and eastern CONUS is
expected to undergo significant amplification from D4/Saturday into
D7/Tuesday as a series of shortwave troughs move through
progressively deeper troughing. By early D7/Tuesday, upper troughing
is expected to extend from the primary cyclone over the Canadian
Maritimes into the central Plains.
A cold front is expected to accompany the first shortwave trough,
moving across the eastern CONUS on D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday.
Limited buoyancy should keep the thunderstorm potential along this
front low. Strong ridging will follow in the wake of this front,
with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorms across the
majority of the CONUS. The only exception is along the Gulf
Coast/Florida, where enough low-level moisture may be in place to
support some thunderstorms.
..Mosier.. 10/09/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT