MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Future climate scenarios

We have supplied advice and recommendations to the Scottish Government, as it looks to develop a climate scenario decision tool for the public sector.

The tool will provide guidance and support around the implementation of climate scenario analysis. This will enable consistent analysis of future climate-related risks across the public sector in Scotland.

Research and engagement

Our report, Using future climate scenarios to support today’s decision making (PDF, 890 KB) forms the basis for the guidance. It was commissioned on behalf of the Scottish Government by ClimateXChange, Scotland’s centre of expertise on climate change.

After extensive research and stakeholder engagement, GAD’s team of climate risk experts set out recommendations on the:

• climate change emissions pathways or temperature scenarios
• time frames
• climate hazards

GAD undertook a review of existing policy, guidance, and stakeholder practice on the use of future climate scenarios and hazard data.

As a result, we spoke to a broad range of stakeholders across Scotland including:

• Scottish Environmental and Protection Agency (SEPA)
• Scottish Water
• Scottish Government
• Transport Scotland
• NatureScot

Consistent approach

We developed options for setting national-level guidance to support the consideration of future climate change and help drive a consistent approach to adaptation planning across the public sector in Scotland.

Among GAD’s main recommendations are that:

• the scenario analysis should cover both chronic and acute physical climate hazards
• organisations should consider at least 2 degrees Celsius and 4 degrees Celsius temperature scenarios
• scenario analysis should be updated every 3 to 5 years

Knowledge exchange

ClimateXChange project manager, Kay White, said: “ClimateXChange facilitates knowledge exchange between researchers and the Scottish Government, and this report has addressed a knowledge gap in the importance of scenario analysis in assessing and understanding uncertainty in future climate risk.

“We hope that the findings from this report further guide the development of a practical scenario analysis tool for the Scottish public sector and enable a more robust understanding of climate change for future decision making.”