Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
SPC AC 161710
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
Valid 171200Z – 181200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
…SUMMARY…
A few thunderstorms may occur over parts of southern Florida and the
Keys on Monday.
…Synopsis…
As upper short-wave troughing departs the Northeast Monday, briefly
zonal/westerly flow aloft will prevail. Later in the period,
however, gradual amplification of the flow field will begin over the
West, as a short-wave trough digs southeastward out of the Pacific
Northwest across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region.
At the surface, a cold front moving eastward across the western
Atlantic will trail southwestward into southern Florida early in the
period. Meanwhile, a broad area of lee-side low pressure will
prevail over the central/southern High Plains, as strong westerlies
aloft persist ahead of the gradually amplifying western trough. A
resulting, broad zone of low-level warm advection will remain across
the central and southern Plains region through the period.
…South Florida and the Keys…
As the trailing portion of the cold front drifts slowly southward
across southern Florida and the Florida Keys through the first half
of the period, showers and isolated thunderstorms appear likely.
The convection should shift southward with time in tandem with the
progression of the front, with any lingering lightning overnight
likely to have moved south of the Florida mainland.
…Elsewhere…
Showers — and a few sporadic lightning flashes — are expected to
occur with a diurnally driven peak in activity, from the Pacific
Northwest east-southeastward into the Wyoming/Colorado vicinity, in
tandem with progression of the short-wave trough. Any lightning
activity should remain sparse, thus precluding the need for a 10%
thunder area.
..Goss.. 02/16/2025
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