Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Mesoscale Discussion 336
Mesoscale Discussion 0336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025
Areas affected…Western into central Oklahoma and western North
Texas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 012017Z – 012215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Cumulus activity is increasing on the dryline in western
Oklahoma. This area is being monitored for storm initiation.
Supercells capable of large/very-large hail, tornadoes (possibly
strong), and severe gusts are possible.
DISCUSSION…Moisture return continues in the southern Plains this
afternoon. Low 60s F dewpoints have reached the Red River/southern
Oklahoma. Mid 60s F dewpoints lag farther south in the DFW
Metroplex. Cumulus have become more numerous in southwest Oklahoma
and recent Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery shows a few towers
occasionally deepening. While this activity is currently developing
within upper 50s F dewpoints, greater moisture resides to the east.
Storm initiation timing is a bit uncertain, especially given the
filtered insolation through a cirrus canopy. However, most guidance
has shown initiation after 22-23Z. Storm coverage remains a
question. These uncertainties are primarily driven by the
late-arriving moisture return. Mid-level ascent will remain quite
modest until after dark. However, the wind profile strongly supports
discrete supercells with an attendant risk for large/very-large hail
and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible in this
environment and would become more likely if a mature storm moves
into increasing low-level moisture to the east. Low-level theta-e
advection should slow/offset the increase in nocturnal CIN.
Once there is more clarity on initiation timing and storm coverage,
a watch will be needed later this afternoon/early evening.
..Wendt/Smith.. 04/01/2025
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FWD…OUN…
LAT…LON 35289729 33809795 33509873 33569950 33669990 34099982
34569970 35389946 36799922 36939853 36939788 36489750
35289729
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY…120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST…65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE…2.00-3.50 IN
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