Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
For best viewing experience, please enable browser JavaScript support.
Apr 6, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 6 19:32:45 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 061932
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025
Valid 062000Z – 071200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST…
…SUMMARY…
Scattered damaging winds and isolated tornadoes remain possible
through this evening across parts of the Southeast. Marginally
severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of
the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia.
…20Z Update…
The only appreciable change with this update was to trim severe
probabilities behind multiple ongoing convective clusters across the
Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will remain the
primary severe concerns with this activity through about mid
evening, after which thunderstorms should tend to weaken.
..Gleason.. 04/06/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/
…Southeast…
A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some
preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak
supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border
vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into
east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am
CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby
warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near
70F) and some additional heating will lead to further
destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur
northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to
differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm
front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will
lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but
sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support
organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and
line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist
through at least early/mid-evening.
…Southern Appalachians/Piedmont…
Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these
regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon,
convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear
across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce
isolated wind damage.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
.html”>Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today’s Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home