Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Apr 14, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Apr 14 17:04:18 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 141704
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025
Valid 151200Z – 161200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
…Northeast…
A post-frontal regime will be in place across the Northeast Tuesday.
Flow aloft will remain modest with mid-level cooling through the
day. This will support potential for redevelopment of scattered
thunderstorm activity by the afternoon. Given post-frontal drying
conditions and weak buoyancy, this should yield primarily sub-severe
low-topped convection, though occasional gusty winds will be
possible.
…Southwest…
A mid-level low will approach the West Coast, with a belt of
mid-level flow overspreading southern California into southern
Nevada. Ahead of this feature, a weak shortwave trough will move
across the Lower Colorado Valley towards the southern Rockies.
Enough mid-level moisture in place with large-scale ascent will
allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity across the
northern Sierra and across the Four Corners region. As shear
profiles will be weak, storms are not expected to be severe.
..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025
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