Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 18, 2025
Updated: Fri Apr 18 07:36:03 UTC 2025
.
D4
Mon, Apr 21, 2025 – Tue, Apr 22, 2025
D7
Thu, Apr 24, 2025 – Fri, Apr 25, 2025
D5
Tue, Apr 22, 2025 – Wed, Apr 23, 2025
D8
Fri, Apr 25, 2025 – Sat, Apr 26, 2025
D6
Wed, Apr 23, 2025 – Thu, Apr 24, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180734
SPC AC 180734
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
Valid 211200Z – 261200Z
…DISCUSSION…
An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spreads east/northeast
from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Lower Great Lakes on Day 4/Mon.
The associated surface low will likewise shift northeast from
eastern IA/IL into Ontario, while a trailing cold front moves across
much of the Midwest. Modest boundary-layer moisture will aid in weak
destabilization and some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could
develop across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity.
The southern extent of this front will stall across the Mid-South
and Sabine Valley. Richer low-level moisture ahead of the surface
boundary across parts of the South could support some thunderstorm
risk as well, but nebulous forcing and weak vertical shear will
limit severe potential.
On Days 5-8/Tue-Fri, a low-amplitude, weak flow pattern is forecast.
Southerly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will
allow for northward moisture transport across OK/TX and vicinity.
Diurnal thunderstorm activity could be possible each day given
modest west/southwest flow atop a moist warm sector. However, a
rather nondescript surface pattern amid weak large-scale forcing
will likely preclude widespread severe potential, though localized
areas of severe storms could still occur given favorable
moisture/instability, particularly along any dryline features.
..Leitman.. 04/18/2025
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