Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Apr 19, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 19 17:29:41 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 191729
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
Valid 201200Z – 211200Z
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
MISSOURI…NORTHERN ARKANSAS…AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS…
…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the
lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging
wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern
Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois.
…MO…AR…Portions of surrounding states…
A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX
Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading
speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over
OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it
develops northward out of OK and into IA as well.
The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR
and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and
extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate
southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with
low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front.
Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and
IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating
will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold
front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing.
Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with
an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO
border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as
the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the
most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO
where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel
temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support
supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability.
The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening
as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least
isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and
southward along the MS River.
..Jewell.. 04/19/2025
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