Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 191
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Northern New York
Western and Central Pennsylvania
Northern West Virginia
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include…
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY…Multiple lines and clusters of thunderstorms will traverse
the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. The
strongest storms will pose a risk of damaging winds gusts and some
hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west northwest
of Pittsburgh PA to 60 miles south southeast of Massena NY. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 187…WW 188…WW
189…WW 190…
AVIATION…A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
…Hart
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 191 SEVERE TSTM NY PA WV LE LO 291930Z – 300200Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
15WNW PIT/PITTSBURGH PA/ – 60SSE MSS/MASSENA NY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /20SW EWC – 49SSE MSS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT…LON 41748049 45287437 42977437 39418049
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 191 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low (5%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (20%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.