Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 2, 2025
Updated: Fri May 2 08:46:02 UTC 2025
.
D4
Mon, May 05, 2025 – Tue, May 06, 2025
D7
Thu, May 08, 2025 – Fri, May 09, 2025
D5
Tue, May 06, 2025 – Wed, May 07, 2025
D8
Fri, May 09, 2025 – Sat, May 10, 2025
D6
Wed, May 07, 2025 – Thu, May 08, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020844
SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025
Valid 051200Z – 101200Z
…DISCUSSION…
…Day 4/Monday – Southern High Plains…
Lee cyclogenesis will strengthen on Monday in the southern High
Plains as a mid-level trough advects eastward. As this occurs, rich
low-level moisture will advect into West Texas which will result in
strong instability as temperatures continue to cool aloft. Expect
scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline during the
afternoon/evening. However, more widespread storm development is
likely after 00Z as the low-level jet strengthens across West Texas.
Initial supercells will have a threat for all severe weather hazards
before eventual upscale growth into a MCS likely results in a
greater severe wind threat.
…Day 5/Tuesday – Central/East Texas into Louisiana…
Day 4 thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the
period along a frontal zone across central/East Texas and persist
eastward through the day. Destabilization remains questionable as
strong high pressure and the low-latitude nature of the mid-level
trough may limit northward movement of the warm front. The potential
for this front to be stationary, in addition to widespread
convection/cloud cover concerns along the front, preclude severe
weather probabilities at this time. However, there will likely be a
corridor along the frontal zone with some greater severe weather
threat which may become more clear as the event draws closer.
Additional severe storms will be possible Day 6 and 7 along the
frontal zone/composite outflow in Texas, but the location of this
feature and degree of destabilization along it will be highly
dependent on prior days convective activity. For these reasons, no
probabilities have been added at this time.
..Bentley.. 05/02/2025
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