Source: European Parliament
EU climate policies have been highly effective, with EU net territorial emissions meeting the 2020 target already in 2019 ahead of 2020 and being 37% below 1990 levels in 2023[1].
Consumption-based emissions can be beyond the EU legislator’s jurisdiction. Still, this footprint as estimated by the Directorate-General for Statistics (ESTAT) declined by 14% between 2010 and 2022 while the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 19%[2].
The EU is implementing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)[3] to address carbon leakage and actively engages with partners to support them in creating effective policies to reduce their territorial emissions, including through effective carbon pricing mechanisms.
The Impact Assessment[4] accompanying the communication on the 2040 target[5]. provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the recommended target in accordance with the Better Regulation requirements[6] and considers all the elements listed in the article 4(5) of the European Climate Law[7].
As highlighted in the communication, investments in the energy system are estimated at about 3.2% of the GDP in 2031-2050, the majority of which would be needed in any case to modernise the EU’s energy system.
In addition, it shows that decarbonisation of the economy will generate major co-benefits, including sharp cuts in fossil fuels imports, significantly improved economic resilience and strategic autonomy, and reduced healthcare costs and mortality due to air pollution. The cost of inaction and corresponding damages have also been assessed.
The impact assessment also considered different global climate policy contexts depending on the evolution of climate policy by major relevant players.
- [1] 2024 Climate Action Progress Report, COM(2024) 498 final.
- [2] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nama_10_gdp/default/table?lang=en&category=na10.nama10.nama_10_ma.
- [3] Regulation (EU) 2023/956.
- [4] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52024SC0063.
- [5] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2024%3A63%3AFIN.
- [6] https://commission.europa.eu/law/law-making-process/better-regulation_en.
- [7] Regulation (EU) 2021/1119.