Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
SPC AC 180554
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025
Valid 191200Z – 201200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA…
…SUMMARY…
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday
from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.
…Synopsis…
A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from
the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on
Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the
day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New
England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast.
An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of
northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified
mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the
western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern
Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this
trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High
Plains.
…New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast…
Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of
the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the
day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as
northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization
farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast.
The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from
PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will
be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing
segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the
strongest storms in this area.
Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas,
deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but
still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of
producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in
areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs.
Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but
the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively
large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing
isolated strong/damaging gusts.
…Southwest MT and vicinity…
Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of
western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the
approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain
limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm
development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong
midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts
during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward.
…Upper Midwest…
Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving
midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday
from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few
stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging
wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later
Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a
nocturnally strengthening low-level jet.
…Northern Plains…
Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in
moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by
Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for
organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly
uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a
building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out
through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm
coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a
strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and
localized strong gusts.
..Dean.. 06/18/2025
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