Translation. Region: Russian Federal
Source: Rosneft – Rosneft – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
Oil production in the US at current prices has probably reached its peak, said Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin at the Energy Panel of the XXVIII St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
In his keynote address, the Company’s CEO called the energy policy initially announced by the new US administration promising. However, most of these goals have not yet been achieved: tariff wars have led to a drop in oil prices, while taxes for the oil industry remain at the same level and interest rates are not decreasing. Against this background, the number of active drilling rigs has fallen by 9% to 439 units over the past two months and oil production growth has stopped. In less than a year, the US Department of Energy has reduced its forecast for oil production in the US by the end of 2025 by 400 thousand barrels per day.
“At current prices, oil production in the US has apparently peaked,” Sechin said, noting that Diamondback Energy and ConocoPhillips recently voiced this opinion. And Liberty Energy, an oilfield services company founded by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, expects drilling activity to slow significantly in the second half of this year, which should lead to a reduction in the US drilling fleet by about another 10%. “It is not surprising that against this backdrop, many shale players have already begun to reduce investments,” the head of Rosneft believes.
He noted that the sharp decline in oil prices this year has already led to a revision of investment plans. According to the latest IEA estimate, global investment in oil exploration and production will fall by 6% this year for the first time in five years, with the drop in the US being around 10%. “I think this is just the beginning,” the head of Rosneft noted.
“The new US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has repeatedly stated that for Trump’s second presidential term to be successful, oil production in the country must increase by three million barrels per day. This is part of the so-called “3-3-3 Plan,” which also implies reducing the US budget deficit to 3% of GDP and achieving three percent GDP growth,” Igor Sechin recalled.
The head of the Company also wonders what difference it makes for the American market where these barrels come from? “It is quite possible that these could be barrels produced in OPEC member countries. The Alliance has consistently, since the end of last year, stated the need to increase production in connection with changes in consumption,” Sechin said.
The CEO also noted that in addition to the interests of states, it is necessary to take into account the interests of shareholders. Low oil prices in the current period do not allow many companies to maintain the previous level of dividend payments and share buybacks, the head of Rosneft said. According to the assessment of Rystad Energy experts, cited by Sechin, if oil majors maintain payments to shareholders, then already this year they will have to almost completely abandon investments or significantly increase their debt.
“The price decline has already started to affect the major players, with BP and Chevron cutting their share buybacks by nearly 60% and 30%, respectively, and Aramco having to increase its debt to be able to pay dividends,” the CEO said.
Department of Information and Advertising of PJSC NK Rosneft June 21, 2025
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