Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments
Scientists comment on the UK heatwave.
Prof Richard Allan, Professor of Climate Science, University of Reading, said:
“The UK is on the edge of a large dome of heat encompassing continental Europe which is briefly causing heatwave conditions to affect southern Britain as June turns to July. Ocean temperatures are also up to 2 degrees Celsius above average across the waters to the southwest of the UK and hotter still in the western Mediterranean. The ebb and flow of gigantic atmospheric waves have generated the stable, cloud-free conditions for heat to build up across Western Europe. But rising greenhouse gas levels due to human activities are making it more difficult for Earth to lose excess heat to space and the warmer, thirstier atmosphere is more effective at drying soils, meaning heatwaves are intensifying, with moderate heat events now becoming extreme. The severity of summer heatwaves, but also extremes of dry as well as wet weather events, will continue to worsen until we rein in our greenhouse gas emissions and stabilise our warming climate.”
Dr Radhika Khosla, Associate Professor at the Smith School of Enterprise and Environment, University of Oxford, said:
“Populations in urban areas like London are particularly susceptible to extreme heat as the concrete and asphalt absorb and re-emit the sun’s radiation, amplifying its impact on our bodies. For this reason, outdoor workers are particularly at risk and should take regular breaks to hydrate in the shade.
“Soaring temperatures will see a corresponding rise in demand for cooling systems like air conditioning, which can put a strain on our energy infrastructure. Air conditioning and other cooling systems become crucial to maintaining health, productivity and quality of life amidst rising temperatures. However, access to cooling is unfortunately rarely equal even in developed countries, and the UK’s most disadvantaged people will bear the brunt of this heatwave.”
“Over-reliance on air conditioning creates a negative feedback loop: more fossil fuels are burnt to power more air-con units, which in turn worsens climate change and raises global temperatures. Use of fans, shade, green spaces and natural ventilation can all help to reduce air conditioning usage. When we have to rely on air-con, it is important to make sure the systems we are using are the most energy efficient.”
Dr Laurence Wainwright, Departmental Lecturer at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, said:
“While news coverage of hot weather usually includes images of sunbathing and ice creams, an often-overlooked consequence of heatwaves is their negative impact on our mental health and behaviour. Violent incidents increase, depression worsens and the effect of psychiatric medications on our body can be altered. For every 1°C increase in monthly average temperature, mental health-related deaths increase by around 2.2%. Spikes in relative humidity also result in a higher occurrence of suicide. Learning to adapt to the increasing frequency of heatwaves brought by climate change will mean taking account of all its impacts – including on our state of mind.”
Dr Chloe Brimicombe, Climate Scientist, Royal Meteorological Society, said:
“We are yet to have an attribution study, the heatwave earlier in June in the UK was 100 times more likely with Climate Change. In general we can say the heatwaves and hot spells in the summer are increasing in duration, how often they occur and intensity, how hot temperatures get to. We also think they are growing in area so more people are exposed every time they occur.
“Beyond heat killing people. They cause a rise in hospitalisations especially in the vulnerable groups to heat. In some parts of Europe it has been shown that exposure to extreme heat can raise the likelihood of preterm births and also lower birth weight babies with developmental delay. It can change how long people breastfeed for. In the long term instances of kidney disease also rise.
“We know it can cause a rise in psychosis and suicides. And an increase in small level crime.
“It puts pressure on power grids. Roads melts, railway tracks can overheat, there are signal failures. It puts pressure on the food supply chain and refrigerated lorries. It also can cause a reduction with dry conditions in crops and sunburn in apple and grapes.
“It can reduce appetites, it also can reduce productivity if proper work-rest schedules aren’t in place.
“Shopping patterns change. With less people going shopping or shopping for different products at different times.
“It impacts every part of our society. It will continue to increase unless we transition to net zero and how fast we do this also impacts how much worse these events will get.
“I think it is important that proper early warning systems that save lives are designed to be supported by other policy areas such as urban design and improving critical infrastructure. They should be integrated into our societal system better.”
Dr Friederike Otto, Associate Professor, Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, said:
“We absolutely do not need to do an attribution study to know that this heatwave is hotter than it would have been without our continued burning of oil, coal and gas. Countless studies have shown that climate change is an absolute game-changer when it comes to heat in Europe, making heatwaves much more frequent, especially the hottest ones, and more intense. Heatwaves are called the silent killer, for a reason, every year thousands of people in Europe die due to extreme heat, particularly those that live in poorly insulated homes, on busy, polluted roads, and that have already health problems. But extreme heat also leads to agricultural losses, infrastructure failure and puts a big strain on plants and animals. To stop people from dying in ever larger numbers we need to stop burning fossil fuels, but we also need to adapt.”
Dr Michael Byrne, Reader in Climate Science, University of St Andrews, said:
“Heat domes – the cause of this week’s European heatwave – are nothing new. They have always happened and always will happen. Heat domes occur when high pressure weather systems, normally lasting a few days, get stuck in place for a week or more. When this atmospheric ‘blocking’ happens in summertime, heatwaves occur. But what is new are the temperatures heat domes deliver: Europe is more than 2 degrees Celsius warmer than in pre-industrial times, so when a heat dome occurs it drives a hotter heatwave.
“Some research suggests heat domes will become more common as climate warms, with more frequent heatwaves as a result. There is large uncertainty regarding the future of heat domes, with no scientific consensus yet. But what is crystal clear is that climate change is loading the dice such that when a heat dome does occur, it brings hotter and more dangerous temperatures.”
Dr Leslie Mabon, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Systems, The Open University, said:
“The extreme high temperatures we are seeing in the UK are being exacerbated by the same phenomenon that is causing the heat dome across Europe. The ‘heat dome’ happens when an area of high pressure air stays over the same area for days or weeks, trapping hot air below it which then expands outwards like a dome.
“In the UK, heat-related illnesses, greater risk for this with pre-existing conditions, and wildfires can all come about because of heatwaves. This is another reminder that climate change makes extremes like this more frequent or intense.”
Declared interests
Prof Richard Allan: No conflicting interests
Dr Radhika Khosla: No declarations
Dr Laurence Wainwright: No declarations
Dr Chloe Brimicombe: No declarations
Dr Friederike Otto: No declarations
Dr Michael Byrne: No declarations
Dr Leslie Mabon: Leslie Mabon is an Ambassador for Scotland’s National Centre for Resilience. This is a voluntary position, committed to ensuring that government, industry and society are able to make decisions about resilience that are informed by the best available evidence.
For all other experts, no reply to our request for DOIs was received.