Source: International Monetary Fund
Summary
Over three years of Russia’s war in Ukraine have taken a staggering social, humanitarian, and economic toll. Despite efforts for a ceasefire, the evolution of the war remains subject to exceptionally high uncertainty. Nevertheless, the authorities’ commitment to reforms and fulfillment of all necessary Fund policies support completion of the review. First, despite some structural reform delays, the authorities have met all quantitative conditionality for this review and remain committed to the overall program objectives of restoring sustainability. Second, the program remains fully financed. Looking ahead, despite the authorities’ program implementation and the large-scale external support, the program has limited space to absorb any further shocks, including from a more prolonged and intense war, while achieving the restoration of external viability by the end of the program.