Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Mesoscale Discussion 1615
Mesoscale Discussion 1615
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025
Areas affected…South Carolina into far eastern Georgia
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 091726Z – 091930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Scattered thunderstorms are developing in an environment
supportive of strong to severe downburst winds. This threat should
remain relatively brief/isolated; watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Deep convection is rapidly developing from
south-central GA into portions of SC within a weak low-level
confluence zone and along a strengthening sea-breeze boundary. This
comes as temperatures quickly warm into the low 90s within a very
moist environment. Morning guidance has largely displayed a 3-5 F
cool and dry bias across the region so far today, which has resulted
in initiation slightly earlier than anticipated as well as SBCAPE
values upwards of 4000-5000 J/kg. Observed dewpoint depressions on
the order of 15 F suggest that LCLs are likely at around 1 km AGL
with near-surface lapse rates on the order of 7-8 C/km. This
combination of extreme buoyancy atop a shallow low-level
dry-adiabatic layer should promote strong, water-loaded downdrafts
capable of damaging/severe downburst winds (most likely between
40-60 mph) through late afternoon. Very weak flow over the region
(generally less than 15 knots per regional VWPs) will favor
disorganized multicells with limited duration. Consequently, the
short-range predictability and coverage of damaging winds will
remain limited and precludes watch issuance.
..Moore/Mosier.. 07/09/2025
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ILM…CHS…CAE…GSP…JAX…FFC…TAE…
LAT…LON 32198060 31918100 31548123 31228136 30958153 30868198
31008235 31238274 31468310 31768330 32318335 33318296
34278211 34468175 34508139 34348035 34218002 34077982
33907972 33757972 32198060
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST…UP TO 60 MPH
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