Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Mesoscale Discussion 1775
Mesoscale Discussion 1775
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
Areas affected…portions of northeast Missouri into west-central
Illinois
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 250113Z – 250245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…A couple of damaging gusts may occur with a
cold-pool-driven MCS over the next few hours. A WW issuance is not
expected.
DISCUSSION…A cold-pool-driven MCS has recently organized into a
quasi-bowing structure oriented roughly normal to the 20-30 kt
effective bulk shear vectors. Surface observations suggest 10-20 F
surface temperature deficits behind the main line. Given modest
forward propagation of the MCS noted into a favorable airmass
characterized by 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, a couple of damaging gusts
cannot be ruled out along locally stronger surges of the cold
pool/convective leading line. Nonetheless, the severe threat will be
isolated at best, so a WW issuance is not expected.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/25/2025
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ILX…LSX…
LAT…LON 40029196 40149090 39838994 39348977 39039008 38939041
38969103 38989145 38989182 39059223 40029196
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST…UP TO 60 MPH
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