Translartion. Region: Russians Fedetion –
Source: State University Higher School of Economics – State University Higher School of Economics –
The future is now more difficult for researchers to predict, and events that are less predictable are becoming increasingly important. But there is good news: scientists are convinced that humanity will adapt to any changes. This was discussed at the conference that was launched as part of XXV Yasinsky (April) International Scientific Conference International Symposium “Foresight in a rapidly changing world“.
Rapid technological progress, alarming climate change, rapid digitalization, rising inflation and stagflation are causing major changes. “The world is becoming more complex and less predictable,” said a leading expert Foresight Center ISSEK HSE University Yulia Milshina. According to her, rapid changes cause nervousness and depression among the population. Some researchers associate their emergence with the development of digital technologies and a sense of insecurity.
“The digital transformation of education and labor systems is not keeping up with the times, creating a mismatch between human capital and market demands,” says Yulia Milshina. Demographic statistics are also alarming. “The increase in the age of the population, in contrast to its size, in developed countries poses a threat to the pension and health care systems,” she adds.
At the same time, there has been an exponential growth in the number of scientific publications devoted to the so-called wild cards (random factors) recently. These include poorly predictable events that may prove to be extremely important. An early warning system for such random events is important in order to formulate approaches to reducing the negative consequences of the implementation of wild cards, explained Yulia Milshina. If in 2022 there were more than 50 such events, then in 2025 there will be more than 300.
The global financial crisis has served as a trigger for the research community to take low-probability, high-impact events more seriously, she stressed. Unpredictability makes traditional forecasting difficult. “Despite increased awareness, we remain vulnerable to unforeseen circumstances,” the expert notes. The new social world requires integrated strategies that can adapt to rapid developments. Therefore, more sophisticated tools are being developed “to anticipate, assimilate and adapt to such disruptive changes.”
Senior Research Fellow Laboratories of Innovation Economy HSE ISSEK Alena Nefedova spoke about the system ifora — an intelligent platform for analyzing big data and megatrends, developed by the HSE Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge.
Among the megatrends that will influence the future, Alena Nefedova named climate change, increased attention to the physical and psycho-emotional state of a person, the transformation of the education system, and global changes in the labor market. At the same time, the development of interdisciplinary research is becoming very important in science itself, she emphasized.
“Universities began interdisciplinary research in the mid-20th century in collaboration with industry. By the 1970s, interdisciplinarity was recognized as vital to strengthening universities as key players in innovation ecosystems,” Alena Nefedova noted. Digitalization is also increasingly influencing scientific activity. “We have virtual forums, we have virtual labs, we have international projects, we have an open science project, and this helps to exchange scientific data and developments,” she added.
Fabienne Goux-Bodiment from the Research Center for the Future (France) noted that the world has changed dramatically. “One of the catalysts for these changes is carbon. We see that large-scale use of carbon leads to global warming and climate change. Another catalyst is silicon. Thanks to silicon, we have generative artificial intelligence, and it can compete with humans,” she said. And finally, the third important trend that is currently observed, according to Fabienne Goux-Bodiment, is general chaos. In particular, it is noticeable in the economy and geopolitics. But change is “not some kind of anomaly, it is a natural process of human evolution and, in fact, life in general,” she reassured. Society is thus evolving, and technology accelerates this evolution. We can move, “make a quantum leap into a completely new state,” the researcher is sure. “One world essentially dies, and a new world appears, albeit not immediately,” says Fabienne Goux-Bodiment. But because we have resistance to change, this process slows down. However, we are still entering an era of acceleration.
The world will not be as we know it now, but this transition does not mean the end of humanity, says the futurologist. “First, it is not the first time that humanity has gone through major changes. Second, the human race as a whole adapts quickly. In addition, this time we know what is happening. We are aware of it. This means that we can do something,” Fabienne Goux-Bodiment reassured.
Now, according to the researcher, a new mentality is being formed. “More and more people recognize that the way we think, manage and produce goods no longer meets the requirements of the times. This is not just some unnoticeable change. The younger generation is not just asking themselves what they want to do, but thinking about what kind of world they would like to create together with their like-minded people. “Pessimism is not a solution. We must experiment, create new formats,” Fabienne Goux-Bodiment is sure.
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