Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 26, 2024
Updated: Thu Sep 26 08:18:02 UTC 2024
.
D4
Sun, Sep 29, 2024 – Mon, Sep 30, 2024
D7
Wed, Oct 02, 2024 – Thu, Oct 03, 2024
D5
Mon, Sep 30, 2024 – Tue, Oct 01, 2024
D8
Thu, Oct 03, 2024 – Fri, Oct 04, 2024
D6
Tue, Oct 01, 2024 – Wed, Oct 02, 2024
(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260816
SPC AC 260816
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024
Valid 291200Z – 041200Z
…DISCUSSION…
The upper low over the OH Valley will weaken and become an open wave
early next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing across the east will be
reinforced through midweek by a shortwave trough developing
east/southeast across the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will
develop east/southeast across much of the Plains and Midwest through
Day 6/Tue. However stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced
well to the north and behind the front. Meanwhile, low-amplitude
upper ridging will prevail across the Southwest/Four Corner, while a
series of shortwave troughs migrate through more progressive
northern stream flow near the international border in the vicinity
of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Overall severe
thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period.
..Leitman.. 09/26/2024
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