Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Mesoscale Discussion 515
Mesoscale Discussion 0515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Areas affected…the South Carolina and North Carolina Piedmont
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 221914Z – 222145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Widely scattered thunderstorm activity may continue to
gradually develop and strengthen through 5-7 PM EDT, accompanied by
at least some risk for marginally severe hail and potentially
damaging surface gusts. This may remain fairly localized and a
severe weather watch is not anticipated, but trends will continue to
be monitored.
DISCUSSION…Widely scattered thunderstorm development appears
underway, perhaps supported by subtle mid-level cooling on the
northwestern periphery of deep-layer ridging centered off the south
Atlantic coast. Based on forecast soundings, destabilization for a
modestly moist and warming boundary layer remains inhibited by weak
high-level lapse rates. However, CAPE within the mixed-phase layer
might still be sufficient to support small to marginally severe
hail, aided by favorable shear beneath a 40 kt southwesterly jet
streak around 500 mb.
Lower-level wind fields will remain more modest, but with at least
some further boundary-layer destabilization through peak daytime
heating, scattered thunderstorm activity will probably continue to
intensify. And downward mixing of momentum may lead to a few
potentially damaging wind gusts, before storms weaken this evening.
..Kerr/Hart.. 04/22/2025
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…AKQ…MHX…RAH…ILM…RNK…CAE…GSP…
LAT…LON 35098137 36287916 36537783 36447688 35667752 34977936
34078076 34028224 35098137
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST…55-70 MPH
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