Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
For best viewing experience, please enable browser JavaScript support.
Apr 25, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 25 05:51:25 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 250551
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Valid 261200Z – 271200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE…
…SUMMARY…
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle.
…Synopsis…
An mid-level low will move across southern California and into the
southern Great Basin on Saturday. As this trough advances east,
mid-level ridging across the central CONUS will start to shift east
through the day. A mid-level trough will amplify across Ontario and
into the Northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. Surface high
pressure will move into the Great Lakes in the wake of this trough.
As low-pressure develops across the Rockies in response to the
eastward advancing mid-level low, the pressure gradient will tighten
across the Plains with strengthening southerly flow and northward
moisture transport.
…Southern High Plains…
As low-pressure develops in the west, a southerly low-level jet will
strengthen Friday night and early Saturday morning which will likely
lead to widespread storm coverage in the vicinity of a surface front
from the Texas Panhandle/southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This
ongoing convection could have significant impacts on northward
moisture recovery, and any remnant boundaries could also be a focus
for severe weather later in the day Saturday, particularly across
the Texas Panhandle and vicinity. Details remain uncertain at this
time due to ongoing MCSs this morning and the potential for several
additional convective systems Friday and Friday night. However,
there is relatively higher confidence in some severe weather threat
across far eastern New Mexico, parts of the Texas Panhandle, and
adjacent areas. This zone is where the greatest overlap in buoyancy
and shear is expected, with some potential for outflow boundaries to
be an additional focus for storms on Saturday. A few supercells may
be possible with a threat for isolated large hail or wind gusts, and
perhaps a tornado.
..Bentley.. 04/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today’s Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home