MIL-OSI Europe: Written question – Is the 2040 intermediate climate target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 90 % legally and economically feasible? – E-001551/2025

Question for written answer  E-001551/2025
to the Commission
Rule 144
Sander Smit (PPE)

Recent studies indicate that the impact of ‘carbon leakage’ resulting from strict EU climate policies has long been underestimated[1][2][3][4]. Meanwhile, Eurostat data suggest that the EU’s carbon footprint has returned to 2016 levels[5] – implying that net annual CO₂ emissions have not decreased. The withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement further increases the risk of carbon leakage and a growing EU carbon footprint.

Under the European Climate Law[6], the Commission is required to consider competitiveness, cost-effectiveness, environmental impact and the actions of other major economies before proposing intermediate targets.This includes assessing whether the policy leads to a measurable reduction in emissions, whether the cost – estimated at 9.2 %[7] of the EU’s GDP annually – is justified, and whether key trading partners, such as the United States, are taking comparable steps.

Despite these concerns, the Commission recently reaffirmed its commitment to a 90 % reduction by 2040 under the Clean Industrial Deal.

• 1.Does an unchanged carbon footprint imply that climate policies are ineffective?
• 2.Will the US exit from the Paris Agreement prompt a new impact assessment?
• 3.Can the 2040 target face legal challenges under Article 4 of the European Climate Law if its full impacts are not assessed?

Submitted: 16.4.2025

• [1] https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-04941-7.
• [2] https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107556.
• [3] https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106240.
• [4] https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107786.
• [5] Eurostat, 2025.
• [6] Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 June 2021 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality and amending Regulations (EC) No 401/2009 and (EU) 2018/1999 (‘European Climate Law’) (OJ L 243, 9.7.2021, p. 1, ELI: http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2021/1119/oj).
• [7] https://doi.org/10.2866/820840.