Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 209
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Alabama
East Central Arkansas
Southern Kentucky
Northern Mississippi
Western and Middle Tennessee
* Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 1000 AM until
500 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include…
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY…Multiple lines and clusters of thunderstorms will track
across the watch area through the afternoon. A very moist and
unstable air mass will promote a risk of damaging winds and large
hail in the stronger storms.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest of
Memphis TN to 75 miles east southeast of Bowling Green KY. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION…A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25035.
…Hart
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 209 SEVERE TSTM AL AR KY MS TN 021500Z – 022200Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
55SW MEM/MEMPHIS TN/ – 75ESE BWG/BOWLING GREEN KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /49SW MEM – 58WSW LOZ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT…LON 35499066 37568517 35538517 33469066
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 209 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low (5%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.