Translation. Region: Russian Federal
Source: State University Higher School of Economics – State University Higher School of Economics –
Higher School of Economics launches new DPO program “The State and Business in the Age of Sanctions: Strategies for Successful Development”, where training is provided by leading experts in the field of analysis of sanctions risks and trends from relevant government agencies, businesses, and academies. Its students will be able to study in detail the risks for Russian companies and their foreign partners, including those related to export restrictions.
The additional professional education program “State and Business in the Age of Sanctions: Strategies for Successful Development” was presented during the scientific and practical seminar “State and Business in the Age of Sanctions: Trends and Risks of 2025”, organized within the framework of the HSE Academic Personnel Reserve project “New World Order”.
Seminar moderator, leading research fellow at the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS) at the National Research University Higher School of Economics Leo Sokolshchik said that it is intended for those who work with foreign counterparties and are interested in forming customized strategies for successful development. The program will study key sanctions trends and risks of 2025, their impact on business, the economy and political strategy of states.
Leo Sokolshchik
The training program includes a survival guide for Russian businesses, information on legal ways to work with foreign partners and the formation of sustainable international business partnerships in the context of sanctions risks. The sanctions policies of the US, EU and China, as well as Russia’s response measures, will be examined in detail.
At the same time, the program is practice-oriented: the training structure involves immersion in real cases and situations that one may encounter in professional activities. Studying on the course will not only increase the level of professional competencies, but will also allow you to expand your network of professional contacts.
The teachers of the continuing education program include leading experts and practitioners in the field of international restrictions and export control: Ivan Timofeev, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council; Dmitry Kiku, Deputy Director of the Department for Control over External Restrictions of the Ministry of Finance of Russia; Maria Roskoshnaya, Head of Export Control and Support of Foreign Economic Activity at Yandex; Vladimir Morozov, Leading Advisor of the Department of International and Regional Cooperation of the Accounts Chamber; Vasily Kashin, Director of the Center for Cemistry and International Studies, an expert on China and its relations with foreign partners; Yegor Prokhin, a visiting lecturer at HSE and a practitioner who has worked in international business with China and the countries of Southeast Asia for over 10 years; Inna Yanikeyeva, a lecturer at the National Research University Higher School of Economics and a specialist in cyber sanctions.
At the seminar, the program’s teachers held their master classes. RIAC Director General Ivan Timofeev presented a master class on the topic “Trends in Anti-Russian Sanctions in 2025: the Split of the West and New Risks.” He noted that it should be remembered that sanctions are a foreign policy instrument that is implemented non-linearly; escalation and normalization do not mean their immediate strengthening and weakening. Now, for the first time in three years, a window of opportunity has opened, allowing us to talk about a probable easing of sanctions, but risks remain. In his opinion, one should be cautious about forecasts about a possible agreement, since the negotiations are taking place behind closed doors. If they fail, escalation is possible.
Ivan Timofeev noted: currently, most of the bills on sanctions in the US Congress are aimed against China and Iran, but if any of the initiatives against Russia is adopted, this will strengthen the regime of anti-Russian sanctions. Escalation is also possible along the EU line, but most likely, it will be accompanied by seizures and quotas on some types of products.
At the same time, voluntary control or self-regulation in advanced industries is increasing. Thus, in recent years, there has been a noticeable rapprochement between representatives of the regulator and business. The Alliance of AI Companies, together with the FSTEC of Russia, created and signed the Declaration on the Responsible Export of Artificial Intelligence Technologies and Software Based on Them. The Declaration establishes ethical principles and standards of conduct that developers should follow when exporting their own civil AI solutions. The standards include general principles and rules and specific recommendations on interactions with foreign counterparties and authorized government agencies.
Maria Roskoshnaya drew attention to changes in the work of specialists. Previously, it was enough for them to know their niche and work algorithm, but now, due to the frequent emergence of new challenges, they have to regularly monitor changes in the export control of key partners. For example, when implementing a deal with China or the UAE, it is mandatory for experts to analyze the export control legislation of these countries. In addition, it is important to monitor innovations in counter-sanction regulation, including bans on the purchase of certain products, as well as on making payments in certain countries.
“We are facing changes in sanctions and counter-sanction procedures. It is important to expand the range of knowledge, not limited to technical details and knowledge of the final recipients and final destination of the goods. For businesses, this means finding optimal logistics routes, opportunities for making payments without restrictions, combining the interests of logisticians, lawyers and financiers,” the expert said.
She noted that difficulties may arise when continuing to interact with companies that left Russia after 2022. These aspects are currently monitored by counter-sanction compliance services, when it is necessary to justify and argue for continued cooperation with companies from unfriendly jurisdictions.
At the master class “EU Sanctions in 2025: Strategies for Russia”, Vladimir Morozov explained that the possibility of using sanctions as a tool for achieving foreign policy goals is embedded in the legal foundations of the EU. They can be used for a wide range of reasons – from accusations of violating international law to the goals of protecting human rights. He called an important feature of EU sanctions their adoption at the supranational level with national supervision of their implementation, which gives rise to contradictions and certain difficulties in their implementation. The diversity of regimes, as well as national legislation and law enforcement practices, makes it difficult to navigate EU sanctions.
Europe often seeks to counteract secondary sanctions from other countries, including the United States, by allowing restrictions against third countries, individuals and companies to be ignored. However, European companies often seek to take into account sanctions risks and implement “overcompliance” in this area, not wanting to lose the American market and the ability to make payments in dollars.
Photo: iStock
Since 2022, the European Commission has been playing an increasingly important role in introducing restrictions, and national institutions are experiencing increasing pressure from supranational institutions, including in tightening penalties for violating sanctions. If administrative liability was previously possible, now it is regarded as a criminal offense. The expert drew attention to the difference in approaches to punishments and investigations. The largest number of them is noted in Poland. The largest number of prison sentences is in the Netherlands, but for a short or suspended term. In Germany, the number of sentences is small, but the terms reach 7 years, and in Finland there are many successful investigations, but the punishments are mainly limited to a fine of 11,000 to 15,000 euros.
The current stage of the EU sanctions policy development is characterized by gradual de-targeting of sanctions, i.e. the desire to inflict maximum damage, as well as active coordination of its own measures with partners, primarily with the United States. If in 2014-16 the EU measures lagged behind the American ones, then since 2022 they have been mostly synchronized. Another trend in European policy has been the active use of the secondary sanctions mechanism. In particular, in 2024 an amendment was adopted, according to which restrictions are imposed against companies and individuals from third countries who worked with Russian sanctioned persons and companies.
Vladimir Morozov named the EU’s readiness to maintain the priority of political goals over economic feasibility as key factors and risks of the continuation, strengthening and, on the contrary, easing of sanctions, given that Europe has suffered greater losses than the US during the sanctions war with Russia.
Egor Prokhin, in his master class “Formation of Sustainable Business Partnerships in the Context of Sanction Risks,” noted that over the past decades, sanctions have achieved their goals in about one third of cases. According to him, the greatest success was achieved against small states with insufficiently diversified and import-dependent economies.
Sanctions, along with challenges, also open up new opportunities, noted Yegor Prokhin. The loss of sales markets in Europe and other Western countries has become an incentive to reorient towards developing markets in Asia.
In conclusion, he emphasized that in order to establish successful cooperation with foreign companies on the Russian market, it is necessary to adapt business strategies taking into account the current sanctions restrictions. In his opinion, such an approach should be comprehensive and include: analysis of companies, their beneficiaries and legal relations for sanctions risks; assessment of industry and territorial sanctions applicable to the planned cooperation; development of solutions and tools for optimizing commercial interactions under restrictions.
Additionally, he recommended creating “road maps” for partners to manage sanctions risks and developing alternative action scenarios aimed at minimizing the potential negative impact on business partnerships.
If the parties manage to reach a truce, American businesses will influence the administration to soften the sanctions, without officially lifting them, but introducing certain exceptions for transportation restrictions and bans on bank transactions.
“For a number of industries, the easing of sanctions will have a positive effect on their development, while for others, on the contrary, it will have a negative effect,” Ivan Timofeev noted. He is confident that if the negotiations are successful, the process of easing sanctions will be long and may take more than a decade. Lev Sokolshchik emphasized that the lifting of sanctions may turn into a risk for certain sectors of the domestic economy.
Maria Roskoshnaya held a master class “Export control: instructions for use. How not to break the rules and not lose markets.” She noted that export control is now considered more broadly than in the traditional sense – in particular, advanced industrial developments and even luxury goods are now subject to special supervision. The range of transactions subject to regulation is also growing – in addition to the usual tangible exports, experts often deal with supervision of the export of technology and software. The share of intangible exports is also growing, especially in high-tech industries, and the forms of transactions are also unusual. For example, it is often necessary to identify open source software or software, access to which is provided under the SaaS model. The state can regulate and restrict, and sometimes prohibit the export and international exchange of know-how, industrial products or raw materials, the lack of which can negatively affect the domestic market.
Russia continues to participate in the development and modification of framework legislation at the international level, since it is a member state of all regimes except the Australian Group (our country has observer status there). It should be understood that each member state of the international export control regime forms a national control system, harmonizing it with the international base. Now we can observe a tendency to strengthen non-proliferation control precisely in the area of finalizing national legislative measures and initiatives.
At the same time, voluntary control or self-regulation in advanced industries is increasing. Thus, in recent years, there has been a noticeable rapprochement between representatives of the regulator and business. The Alliance of AI Companies, together with the FSTEC of Russia, created and signed the Declaration on the Responsible Export of Artificial Intelligence Technologies and Software Based on Them. The Declaration establishes ethical principles and standards of conduct that developers should follow when exporting their own civil AI solutions. The standards include general principles and rules and specific recommendations on interactions with foreign counterparties and authorized government agencies.
Photo: iStock
Maria Roskoshnaya drew attention to changes in the work of specialists. Previously, it was enough for them to know their niche and work algorithm, but now, due to the frequent emergence of new challenges, they have to regularly monitor changes in the export control of key partners. For example, when implementing a deal with China or the UAE, it is mandatory for experts to analyze the export control legislation of these countries. In addition, it is important to monitor innovations in counter-sanction regulation, including bans on the purchase of certain products, as well as on making payments in certain countries.
“We are facing changes in sanctions and counter-sanction procedures. It is important to expand the range of knowledge, not limited to technical details and knowledge of the final recipients and final destination of the goods. For businesses, this means finding optimal logistics routes, opportunities for making payments without restrictions, combining the interests of logisticians, lawyers and financiers,” the expert said.
She noted that difficulties may arise when continuing to interact with companies that left Russia after 2022. These aspects are currently monitored by counter-sanction compliance services, when it is necessary to justify and argue for continued cooperation with companies from unfriendly jurisdictions.
At the master class “EU Sanctions in 2025: Strategies for Russia”, Vladimir Morozov explained that the possibility of using sanctions as a tool for achieving foreign policy goals is embedded in the legal foundations of the EU. They can be used for a wide range of reasons – from accusations of violating international law to the goals of protecting human rights. He called an important feature of EU sanctions their adoption at the supranational level with national supervision of their implementation, which gives rise to contradictions and certain difficulties in their implementation. The diversity of regimes, as well as national legislation and law enforcement practices, makes it difficult to navigate EU sanctions.
Europe often seeks to counteract secondary sanctions from other countries, including the United States, by allowing restrictions against third countries, individuals, and firms to be ignored. However, European companies often seek to take into account sanctions risks and implement “overcompliance” in this area, not wanting to lose the American market and the ability to make payments in dollars.
Since 2022, the European Commission has been playing an increasingly important role in introducing restrictions, and national institutions are experiencing increasing pressure from supranational institutions, including in tightening penalties for violating sanctions. If administrative liability was previously possible, now it is regarded as a criminal offense. The expert drew attention to the difference in approaches to punishments and investigations. The largest number of them is noted in Poland. The largest number of prison sentences is in the Netherlands, but for a short or suspended term. In Germany, the number of sentences is small, but the terms reach 7 years, and in Finland there are many successful investigations, but the punishments are mainly limited to a fine of 11,000 to 15,000 euros.
Photo: iStock
The current stage of the EU sanctions policy development is characterized by gradual de-targeting of sanctions, i.e. the desire to inflict maximum damage, as well as active coordination of its own measures with partners, primarily with the United States. If in 2014-16 the EU measures lagged behind the American ones, then since 2022 they have been mostly synchronized. Another trend in European policy has been the active use of the secondary sanctions mechanism. In particular, in 2024 an amendment was adopted, according to which restrictions are imposed against companies and individuals from third countries who worked with Russian sanctioned persons and companies.
Vladimir Morozov named the EU’s readiness to maintain the priority of political goals over economic feasibility as key factors and risks of the continuation, strengthening and, on the contrary, easing of sanctions, given that Europe has suffered greater losses than the US during the sanctions war with Russia.
Egor Prokhin, in his master class “Formation of Sustainable Business Partnerships in the Context of Sanction Risks,” noted that over the past decades, sanctions have achieved their goals in about one-third of cases. According to him, the greatest success was achieved against small states with insufficiently diversified and import-dependent economies.
Sanctions, along with challenges, also open up new opportunities, noted Yegor Prokhin. The loss of sales markets in Europe and other Western countries has become an incentive to reorient towards developing markets in Asia.
In conclusion, he emphasized that in order to establish successful cooperation with foreign companies on the Russian market, it is necessary to adapt business strategies taking into account the current sanctions restrictions. In his opinion, such an approach should be comprehensive and include: analysis of companies, their beneficiaries and legal relations for sanctions risks; assessment of industry and territorial sanctions applicable to the planned cooperation; development of solutions and tools for optimizing commercial interaction in the context of restrictions.
Additionally, he recommended creating “road maps” for partners to manage sanctions risks and developing alternative action scenarios aimed at minimizing the potential negative impact on business partnerships.
All opinions presented in the material are exclusively the personal position of the seminar participants and the author.
Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.