Translation. Region: Russian Federal
Source: State University Higher School of Economics – State University Higher School of Economics –
Jose Luis Cordeiro
© Higher School of Economics
Leading Russian and Western scientists gathered at the anniversary XXV Yasin (April) International Scientific Conference. One of the guests at the special foresight session was Doctor of Philosophy Jose Luis Cordeiro, member of the World Academy of Art and Science, chairman of the Venezuelan node of the Millennium Project, former professor at MIPT and HSE, author of the book Death Must Die.
— Dear Jose Luis, we are glad that you accepted our invitation to participate in the foresight session dedicated to the future of AI. This is not your first visit to HSE. How would you rate your experience of cooperation with our university?
— I am always happy to return to HSE, which, by the way, many call the Russian Harvard, because I sincerely believe that it is one of the best universities in Russia, in Europe and in the world. All research and all academic work here is conducted at the highest level. And so I am inspired and happy to collaborate in any way possible.
— Which areas of research and topics covered during the foresight session seem most relevant today?
— I am interested in following the path from narrow AI to general AI and going even further, looking into the area of artificial superintelligence. Because this will be a level of AI that surpasses human in everything. I think this is inevitable and we need to be prepared for it.
— Artificial intelligence causes both fear and excitement in society. What does this new technology generate more — threats or opportunities?
— Every technology can be used for good and for bad, starting with one of the first human technologies, fire, which was probably developed by humans about half a million years ago. Obviously, it could be used for many good things, like cooking, heating, and so on. But it could also be used to kill, destroy, and burn cities. Same with nuclear energy. It can be used to make electricity or to make nuclear weapons. So all technologies can be used for good or for bad. But again, in general, technologies are used for good purposes. They are developed by people for people in cooperation with other people. So I am actually very inspired by the incredible capabilities of artificial intelligence.
Maybe I’m not so afraid of AI because I’m more worried about human stupidity. Human stupidity is really my main concern! And so if we can become smarter with AI, I’ll be very happy about it.
— Each person draws a certain image of the future, preferable, possible or undesirable, clear or vague, a certain picture where he places himself. What place does artificial intelligence occupy in your image of the future?
— AI will be everywhere, it will assist us in everything constantly and continuously. It will be as natural as mobile phones are now, or earlier — the Internet, and even earlier — just ordinary landline phones.
So AI will be everywhere. It is a general purpose technology, like electricity, which is everywhere today.
— What, in your opinion, are the most important challenges facing humanity today? Have they changed much in recent years?
— Look, there are different challenges in different historical periods. This is reasonable. Once, you know, fire was a big challenge. And a few thousand years later, nuclear weapons became a challenge. For a long time after World War II, humanity lived in fear of the constant threat of nuclear destruction. Until biochemical weapons were added to it. And now there are two challenges. But today, it seems to me, in terms of the greatest threat, environmental challenges are in the foreground. I believe that they are the main modern problem for humanity.
But AI, like all technology, is actually more of a help than a problem. So I’m very optimistic about AI and I’m looking forward to AI finally helping us solve previous problems and challenges before it becomes a problem itself.
— During the foresight session, some speakers criticized foresight, claiming that it is experiencing a decline in public interest because it is too old-fashioned. Do you agree with this statement?
— I think that foresight and future studies in general, on the contrary, are becoming more and more relevant, because the world is changing faster and faster. When things, ways of life and technologies had not changed for centuries, when everything happened very slowly, then foresight was not so important. But now, when everything happens almost instantly, we need more, not less foresight.
So no, I don’t think it’s old-fashioned. In fact, I think foresight is coming into fashion and it should become even more common in the future. Well, look, it’s like saying that mathematics is old-fashioned or physics is outdated. Well, they’re not, they’re not old-fashioned. We need mathematics, we need physics, and we need foresight. And I repeat: we need it more than ever.
— You were one of the founders of the Millennium Project, which unites futurologists from all over the world. HSE Foresight Center is also active in futures research. In what areas do you see the greatest synergy from collaboration?
— In many. If you remember, I already mentioned that HSE, ISSEK, Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge. — Ed.) and the Foresight Center are at the forefront of modern scientific forecasting. They have achieved incredible success in the field of technological and scientific foresight. I like their forecasting tool for processing big data (iFORA. — Ed.). By the way, iFORA is something we could collaborate on, we could help promote it on the market, already at the international level. iFORA is just one example.
Now, as part of the Millennium Project, we are working on developing State of the Future Indexes. We are creating indices of the future states of companies, cities, countries, industrial sectors and the world as a whole. So, since HSE is very strong in statistics, we could collaborate on state of the future indices. Choose a direction and create an index.
Or a third example: we are assembling a navigator for Futures Research Methodologies. And a Foresight Center that develops such methodologies and has most of the foresight methods in its arsenal would be indispensable in our work.
And finally, we conduct international Delphi surveys annually, now online surveys. And of course, we want to involve Russian scientists in our expert circle. Russia is one of those countries in the world where a lot of expertise has been collected in various technological areas, and we will be very happy to include it in our Delphi surveys.
So, a lot, a lot of things. The future is open, and foresight and future research are the future.
— Could you tell us about your current research interests?
— Right now I am mainly interested in three areas. The first is space. Space is an important part of the history and future of humanity. And in the next decade we will have space colonies on the Moon and Mars. Life on other planets will radically change the attitude and view of our own tiny planet Earth. So space is very important. And of course, Russia, remaining one of the leading countries in space research, will participate in this space expansion.
The second area that interests me is artificial intelligence and the transition to superintelligence. As soon as we create a new machine-human civilization, the world around us will change radically. For this, we will need a lot of intelligence, both natural and artificial. I really want to look into the future, in which superintelligence operates.
And the third area of my interest is biotechnology, health and longevity. Now with new medical technologies we have the ability to increase the life expectancy of people, and soon we will be able to rejuvenate people. It seems incredible, but the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2012 was awarded to Shinyo Yamanaka, who discovered a way to reprogram cells to change their biological age. After that, other scientists began to do this at the organ level, in 12 years we moved from cells to organs. And now many people are working on the transition from organs to whole organisms, to animals. Of course, they usually start with simpler and smaller animals, and then move on to more complex and larger ones, so that eventually we can try it on people. I believe that in the next 20 years we will stop aging. We will take control of the aging process and begin to rejuvenate people. This was the first dream of mankind – immortality. And now we are very close to making it come true thanks to biotechnology. And so I’m very excited about this. So, three areas: space, artificial intelligence and longevity.
The interview was prepared by Sergey Sychev, leading expert of the Department of Science Statistics ISSEK HSE
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