The Next Decade Will be About India’s Per Capita Income Rise

Source: Government of India

Source: Government of India (4)

Comfortably seated in the world’s top five economies, India is now inviting the envious ire of several economists, who are questioning its per-capita income. The bears expect India not to celebrate its triumph, for its per capita income continues to trail many Western nations.

Their numbers might be sound, but their rationale remains incomplete. In the last decade, our per capita income has gone from Rs. 80,000-odd to more than Rs. 200,000, and much of this increase has been driven by the overall rural transformation.

The decades until 2014 were about deadlock. Policymakers in the power corridors realised the need for a change in India’s villages, but were unable to drive any significant change on the ground. The pursuit of food, clothing, and shelter was known to all, but beyond political philosophy, no visible action was taken. Even the self-admission of the lost 85 per cent did not result in any change for the next three decades, until 2014.

The policies of the Narendra Modi government have been straightforward. Fix the problem. Address the gaps. There are no delays. Implementation is swift, and without leakages. While the previous government saw discontinuation of its pilot DBT programme because of lack of banking penetration, the Modi government facilitated transfer of welfare benefits amounting to more than Rs. 43 Lakh Crore.

Beyond the DBTs, powered by the JAM trinity (Jan Dhan-Aadhar-Mobile), the villages of India, housing almost 100 Crore people, have witnessed all-round development. From the decades of deadlock, India witnessed the decade of driving change.

The first big push came in the healthcare sector. Initiated in 2014, the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan focused on improving sanitation and cleanliness, particularly for India’s poor, who are most vulnerable to diseases caused by poor hygiene.

The program has constructed over 12 crore household toilets, achieving 100 per cent open-defecation-free status in rural areas by 2019. This has enhanced the dignity and health of low-income families, especially women, while reducing waterborne diseases. Improved sanitation access has empowered poor communities with safer living environments and better public health infrastructure. As per studies, infant mortality has been progressively reduced through the Swachh Bharat Abhiyaan.

While toilets were being built across the country, the Modi Government then launched the biggest healthcare programme in the world, encompassing over 500 million people, almost 1.6 times the population of the United States of America.

Ayushman Bharat is a transformative healthcare initiative aimed at providing affordable medical access to India’s poor. Through its Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PM-JAY), it offers up to ₹5 lakh per family annually for secondary and tertiary hospital care.

The Ayushman Bharat programme has enabled the poor to access critical treatments, reducing out-of-pocket expenses that often push families into debt. By 2024, over 34 crore hospital admissions have been covered, significantly improving health outcomes for marginalized communities.

To supplement healthcare and hygiene, the Modi Government also improved the coverage of the Jan Aushadi Kendras. Less than 100 in 2014, the pharmacy stores have increased to more than 15,000.

Jan Aushadhi Kendras provide generic medicines at prices up to 50-90 per cent lower than branded alternatives. This initiative has reduced healthcare costs, enabling low-income families to manage medical expenses without financial distress. It has also created entrepreneurial opportunities for small-scale operators in underserved areas.

The second big push came through the guarantee of food. This rendered the traditional chase for food futile. The first big change came to the ration cards. The One Nation One Ration Card (ONORC) scheme, fully implemented by 2024, allows beneficiaries to access rations anywhere in India, benefiting migrant workers. These upgrades have streamlined access, reduced fake beneficiaries, and ensured equitable distribution for the poor.

Launched in 2020, the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana was extended to December 2028, providing 5 kg of free food grains per person monthly to 81.35 crore beneficiaries, alongside National Food Security Act (NFSA) subsidies. The additional guarantee of foodgrains allows a surplus ration for India’s economic majority.

The third big push came in the form of infrastructure. While the capex increased to more than Rs. 10 Lakh Crore in the last few budgets, the last-mile infrastructure has benefited the people in the villages.

Initiated in 2019, Jal Jeevan Mission seeks to provide safe drinking water through household tap connections to all rural households in India. Over 18 crore rural households now have tap water, up from 3.27 crore in 2019, saving millions of hours daily, especially for women, and improving health outcomes.

By integrating Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) with Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana and Swachh Bharat Mission, and focusing on community-driven water management, JJM has alleviated water scarcity for the poor, enhancing their quality of life. The endless pursuits for water for women have to come to an end, leaving them with more productivity hours each day.

Launched in 2015, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana aims to provide affordable housing to the urban and rural poor. PMAY-Gramin has sanctioned more than 3.5 crore houses, with around 2.8 crore completed, benefiting nearly 15 crore individuals with pucca houses equipped with amenities like toilets and water connections.

The fourth big push came in the form of boosting entrepreneurship amongst the people in the villages. People who did not have bank accounts a decade ago are today active stakeholders in India’s economy.

Launched in 2015, the Pradhan Mantri MUDRA Yojana provides collateral-free loans up to ₹20 lakh to micro and small enterprises, with over 52 crore loans sanctioned worth more than Rs. 33 Lakh Crore by 2025, 68 per cent benefiting women and 50 per cent supporting SC/ST/OBC communities.

It has empowered poor entrepreneurs, particularly in manufacturing, trading, and services, by enabling access to formal credit without guarantees, fostering self-employment and small business growth. The scheme’s focus on marginalized groups has enhanced financial inclusion, with average loan sizes rising from ₹38,000 in 2016 to ₹1.02 lakh in 2025.

Similarly, PM SVANidhi Scheme: Introduced in 2020 to support street vendors during the COVID-19 crisis, PM SVANidhi offers collateral-free loans up to ₹50,000, with interest subsidies for timely repayments, benefiting over 79.55 lakh vendors with ₹10,978 crore disbursed by 2024.

The scheme, linked to eight welfare programs via SVANidhi Se Samriddhi, helps urban poor access health, housing, and food security benefits, uplifting their socio-economic status. It has enabled vendors, especially in aspirational districts, to sustain and expand their businesses, fostering financial independence.

The Modi government has strengthened SHGs (Self-Help Groups) through the Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana-National Rural Livelihoods Mission (DAY-NRLM). SHGs empower poor women by providing microfinance, skill training, and market linkages, enabling income-generating activities like handicrafts and agriculture.

Initiatives like Lakhpati Didi aim to make 3 crore SHG women earn ₹1 lakh annually, boosting economic self-reliance and community development.

In isolation, these are welfare programmes, but when viewed together, these are going to be an economic launchpad for India’s majority population residing in the non-urban areas. The early signs are already there, in the changing consumption patterns driven by more disposable income.

To view these welfare programmes only from the prism of development is an incomplete exercise, and their role in enabling 100 crore people of India, to chase their dreams, wherever they are across the country, must be applauded. In another decade, India will go from becoming a $4 trillion economy to an $8 trillion economy, but the story is going to be about India’s per capita rise. It’s inevitable.