Source: UNISDR Disaster Risk Reduction
Future earthquake risk
Making sound investments to build resilience is highly effective in countering seismic risk. But in key sectors such as infrastructure this is still not happening enough, meaning more people and assets are being left in harm’s way.
The Dominican Republic in 2015 had a baseline average annual loss figure of 1.55 deaths per 100,000 habitants from earthquakes. According to analysis by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) team, without stepped up risk reduction action, this is projected to increase to 1.69 deaths per 100,000 people by 2030 and 1.82 deaths per 100,000 people by 2050, mainly due to demographic growth, urbanization and policy choices. While the Dominican Republic has already invested in developing strong seismic codes, it faces challenges in enforcing them and in retrofitting existing housing stock. However, these future impacts could be significantly reduced with stepped-up action on seismic risk management.
Solutions vary across locations, but in this case, code enforcement was identified as the most effective long-term mitigation action at the national level: with this option, the number of deaths could fall to 1.40 fatalities per 100,000 habitants by 2030 (a drop of 17 percent, compared to no action being taken) and 1.33 by 2050 (a reduction of 26 percent). However, a retrofitting campaign, would also have significant impact, leading to a 4 percent reduction compared to the baseline scenario by 2030 and a 7 percent reduction by 2050. The investment would be particularly effective in rapidly growing cities with high concentrations of informal construction, such as Santiago de los Caballeros and Puerto Plata.
Across the whole of Central America, the same opportunities to reduce seismic risk are evident. Without increased investment in seismic resilience, earthquake-induced economic losses across Central America are projected to double by 2050, reaching up to USD 4.4 billion. If code enforcement, building quality and urban planning remain inadequate, seismic risk is expected to rise significantly in the years to come, especially in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. On the other hand, countries such as Panama and Costa Rica are expected to see lower increases in risk, as they have already begun enforcing building codes and have lower population growth projections.