Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Jun 3, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 3 05:43:07 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 030543
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 041200Z – 051200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND EASTERN MIDWEST…
…SUMMARY…
Isolated severe hail and wind are possible from mid-afternoon
Wednesday through early morning Thursday in parts of the Southwest.
Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail may occur across
the eastern Midwest from mid-afternoon to evening.
…NM to southern CO and west TX…
A lower-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough will accelerate
from the Lower CO Valley, shifting across the southern Rockies onto
the south-central High Plains by 12Z Thursday. Widespread
thunderstorm coverage is likely Wednesday afternoon ahead of this
trough, centered on the Four Corners region. Despite weak buoyancy
owing to a surface ridge at 12Z Wednesday across the southern High
Plains, a belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies to the
east-southeast of the trough should yield a few weak supercells.
These should be focused across northern NM into southern CO during
the mid-afternoon to early evening. A lone supercell may also
develop over the Trans-Pecos. Isolated severe hail/wind may occur.
Low-level moisture return and attendant MUCAPE will increase
Wednesday night across west TX into far eastern NM. With
strengthening large-scale ascent as the shortwave trough approaches,
regenerative thunderstorm development is anticipated. Strong
effective bulk shear may foster a corridor of early-morning
supercells with a primary hazard of isolated large hail. South of
this corridor, capping will probably inhibit sustained storm
development. Confidence in reliably highlighting a mesoscale
corridor is too low to warrant a categorical upgrade.
..IL to OH/lower MI…
Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the
central Great Lakes at 12Z Wednesday will become confined to ON/QC
as a low-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south
of this, a residual belt of at least moderate 700-500 mb winds will
persist into Wednesday afternoon, along and ahead of a
weakening/stalling cold front. While mid-level lapse rates will
remain weak and limit buoyancy, sufficient boundary-layer heating
will exist for scattered thunderstorms. Marginally severe hail will
be possible with initial cells, but clusters should dominate given
the nearly parallel orientation of the front/shear vector. Sporadic
strong gusts capable of isolated damaging winds may persist into the
early/mid-evening, before convection wanes after dusk.
..Grams.. 06/03/2025
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