Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Jun 8, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 8 05:47:20 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 080547
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Valid 091200Z – 101200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY…
…SUMMARY…
Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe
hail are possible across the Southeast into the Upper Ohio Valley on
Monday into Monday evening.
…Southeast…
Below-average confidence exists for this forecast with large spread
across D2 guidance in the handling of an early-morning MCS and
attendant MCV in the MS vicinity, amid modest background wind fields
outside of the MCV influence. Most guidance indicates convection
should intensify towards midday, along and downstream of the
large-scale outflow as the boundary layer destabilizes across the
Deep South. Some guidance indicates convection may redevelop behind
it and become the primary corridor for damaging winds during the
afternoon. For now, have maintained a broad level 2-SLGT risk for
scattered damaging winds to the South Atlantic Coast.
…Upper OH Valley…
A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great
Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should generally remain along to
the cool side of a weak cold front shifting east. Most guidance has
trended up with the degree of boundary-layer heating ahead of the
front, which will be required to boost buoyancy amid marginal
mid-level lapse rates. A corridor of primarily scattered damaging
winds, along with a tornado and isolated severe hail, may develop
amid modest MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. With a confined buoyancy plume,
convection should weaken as it spreads towards the northern
Appalachians on Monday evening.
…NM/TX…
An intense and large MCS on Sunday should drive a composite
outflow/cold front into central/south TX, with a meridional arc over
central to western NM. Scattered to numerous afternoon storms will
probably remain tied to the higher terrain of northern/central NM
with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer
shear. Isolated storms are also possible near the front from the
southern Trans-Pecos through southeast TX with a severe hail/wind
threat. Isolated elevated convection may form with weak low-level
warm theta-e advection north of the front on Monday evening/night.
Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy may exist for
a few storms capable of severe hail.
..Grams.. 06/08/2025
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