Translation. Region: Russian Federation –
Source: State University Higher School of Economics – State University Higher School of Economics –
Joint research of associate professor Faculty of Economic Sciences, National Research University Higher School of EconomicsSergey Stepanov, experts from the INSEAD business school and New York University in Shanghai showed that for tasks with a high level of uncertainty, when there is no certainty which of the decisions taken is better, consultation with individual experts will be more useful than with a whole group. The study was published in the journalGamez and Economic Benavior.
In real life, decision makers often face the choice of whether to use the opinions of several independent experts or a collective discussion. Individual expert assessments are common in science and medicine. For example, when reviewing articles in academic journals, several reviewers evaluate the work independently and do not know who else is checking it. Collective assessments are meetings of directors, think tanks, commissions, and councils where the decision is discussed together.
To understand when it is better to rely on the opinions of individual experts and when to listen to a collective assessment, the researchers developed a model that involved two hypothetical experts. They received information about a situation, but could interpret it differently. Their task was to convince the decision maker of their competence, that is, to give the most accurate forecast possible. The model included two scenarios: an independent assessment, in which the experts were unaware of each other’s participation, and a joint assessment, in which they could discuss the information before presenting a unified conclusion.
In the model, the honesty of experts’ conclusions is influenced by their desire to preserve their reputation. When a certain decision is considered the most probable in the community, an expert may be reluctant to contradict this opinion. And in groups, employees can share doubts with each other without fearing for the reputation of the team, so groups can give a more accurate answer in such a situation. Where individual experts are reluctant to speak out, groups can persuade management to accept a different point of view if it seems more correct to them.
The results of the study showed that the effectiveness of one or another approach depends on the level of certainty of the situation. In conditions of certainty, where the probability of success of each option is approximately known, a collective approach allows collecting more data and making a common decision. By discussing and processing information together, a group of specialists can come to more accurate conclusions and minimize disagreements.
However, when the situation is complex and unpredictable, independent assessment works better. Due to the lack of consensus, an individual expert is not afraid of pressure and can express any point of view. This approach also helps to avoid the influence of groupthink, when pressure on experts forces them to accept the opinion of the majority.
By high uncertainty, scientists mean situations where there is no obvious and widely accepted understanding of the outcome. These may include unconventional economic forecasts, unstable political situations, unfamiliar medical cases, and other examples where assessment requires flexibility and an unconventional approach.
“The results of the study change our understanding of what advice is better – collective or individual. For the decision maker, this choice does not depend on the problem itself that he needs to solve, nor on his preferences,” comments Associate Professor of the Faculty of Economic Sciences Sergey Stepanov.
When there is no single correct answer, individual experts are able to give a more objective assessment. This is observed, for example, when polling economists to forecast inflation or GDP growth, where the complexity of economic processes does not allow one to identify the “correct” point of view in advance. The media, analytical agencies and government services involve different specialists in such polls in order to obtain a multifaceted assessment of the situation.
“In some cases, we can really choose whether to interview an individual specialist or seek advice from a group,” says Sergey Stepanov. “For example, when making a complex diagnosis, you can consult several doctors individually or organize a medical consultation. Each of these approaches will be effective.”
Thus, according to scientists, the choice between individual and collective assessment depends on the specific situation, its complexity and the available data.
Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.