Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 3, 2024
Updated: Sun Nov 3 09:41:03 UTC 2024
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D4
Wed, Nov 06, 2024 – Thu, Nov 07, 2024
D7
Sat, Nov 09, 2024 – Sun, Nov 10, 2024
D5
Thu, Nov 07, 2024 – Fri, Nov 08, 2024
D8
Sun, Nov 10, 2024 – Mon, Nov 11, 2024
D6
Fri, Nov 08, 2024 – Sat, Nov 09, 2024
(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030939
SPC AC 030939
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024
Valid 061200Z – 111200Z
…DISCUSSION…
NHC is forecasting a high probability of TC formation in the
Caribbean by D2. Predictability is low along the FL Gulf Coast
vicinity regarding downstream tornado potential during D4-5, with
large spread in guidance at this time frame and beyond.
Meanwhile, modified moisture return will ensue on D4-5 over the
southern High Plains, in advance of a shortwave trough evolving into
a cutoff low across the Southwest. Given an initially inverted
surface trough, severe potential should be limited/mesoscale-focused
on D5/Thursday. With an emerging consensus of ensemble guidance
suggesting acceleration of the upper low onto the Great Plains,
severe potential may increase next weekend with broadening of the
warm-moist sector in the central states. Predictability is far too
low to warrant consideration of greater than 15 percent areas yet.
..Grams.. 11/03/2024
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