Source: UNISDR Disaster Risk Reduction
The Arab region is at a critical juncture, facing an increasingly complex and interconnected risk landscape. Climate change, urbanization, and socio-economic disparities are exacerbating these challenges, requiring urgent and cohesive action. The need for an integrated approach to disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA), and sustainable development has never been greater. Achieving this requires strong regional collaboration because the challenges we face do not respect borders.
The 2024 Regional Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (RAR) in the Arab Region sheds light on the complex interactions between different risks that have been made worse by systemic instability, conflict, and climate change. It also underscores the necessity for innovative strategies that address the multifaceted risks affecting our communities. Leading innovations that leverage technology and accelerate resilience-building are highlighted as key opportunities to enhance the region’s collective adaptive capacity.
This report was officially launched at the 6th Arab Regional Platform for DRR, themed ‘Building Resilient Arab Communities: From Understanding to Action.’ Hosted by the State of Kuwait and organized by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, in partnership with the League of Arab States.
“This report serves as a vital resource for governments, policymakers, practitioners, and stakeholders committed to DRR and sustainable development. It calls for collaborative efforts to transform our understanding of risk into actionable strategies that prioritize community well-being and environmental sustainability. With strategic investments in early warning systems, risk-informed development, and climate adaptation, the Arab region has the potential to build a future where resilience and sustainability go hand in hand.”
— Kamal Kishore, Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction, and Head of UNDRR
Key findings
Risk landscape in the Arab states
The Arab region is facing escalating climate-related risks, with temperature increases accelerating at +0.5 °C/decade, exacerbating water scarcity, heat-related deaths, crop failures and extreme flooding. The principal risk drivers of the region are related to natural resources and institutional domains. Improved governance and rule of law are critical to mitigating these impacts and addressing the region’s interconnected risk landscape.
Progress in Disaster Risk Reduction at the mid of the Sendai Framework implementation
The Arab region has made progress in DRR since adopting the Sendai Framework in 2015, but efforts must be stepped up to address gaps in risk governance, preparedness and investment. To accelerate progress, the region needs to strengthen institutional frameworks, invest in DRR and promote climate resilience, gender-responsive DRR and inclusive governance.
The impact of changing climate on systemic risk drivers: Drought as a Systemic Risk Driver
The Arab region is highly vulnerable to drought, exacerbated by climate change, population growth and unsustainable water management practices. Droughts are projected to increase in frequency and intensity, threatening food security, social stability and economic development, highlighting the need for urgent action and proactive measures to build resilience. To address this challenge, governments and stakeholders must adopt data-driven decision-making, invest in innovative technologies, and promote collaborative water management practices.
The impact of changing climate on systemic risk drivers: Weak Capacity for Governance of Systemic Risk
The Arab region’s capacity to govern systemic risks is weakened by fragile institutions, corruption and lack of trust in governments, exacerbating the impacts of climate change and disasters. Strengthening governance, transparency and accountability is critical to building resilience and effectively managing risks, and can be achieved through a holistic and integrated approach to climate change and DRR policies.
Climate Change-Disaster-Human Mobility Nexus
Climate change is exacerbating displacement and human mobility concerns across the Arab region, where fragile contexts and conflict intersect with disasters and environmental degradation. A climate security perspective is crucial to understanding these intertwined risks, and regional efforts must prioritize immediate disaster response, long-term resilience and sustainable development. Effective policies and strategies must address the root causes of vulnerability and prioritize the safety, dignity, and rights of affected populations.
Gender Inequality and Women’s Empowerment: Addressing the Gap
Somalia’s women face disproportionate impacts from climate change, conflict and migration, exacerbating existing gender inequalities. To address these challenges, it is critical to adopt a transformative and intersectional approach, integrating women’s priorities into policy and programming, and promoting women’s leadership, capacity building and access to resources, to build resilient and inclusive communities.
Emerging Health Challenges and Related Systemic Risks
Climate change poses an urgent public health emergency, threatening human health and wellbeing globally and in the Arab region in particular. To mitigate these impacts, collaborative efforts are necessary, including strengthening healthcare infrastructure, establishing early warning systems, and promoting climate-resilient health systems. International cooperation and targeted actions are crucial to addressing the health impacts of climate change.
Rural – Agricultural Risk with Rising Water Scarcity and Food Insecurity
The Arab region’s agrifood systems face multiple, interconnected risks, including droughts, floods, sand and dust storms, transboundary plant and animal pests and diseases, conflicts, and economic shocks, which threaten food security and undermine development efforts. To address these challenges, an integrated multi-risk management approach is necessary, incorporating risk-informed planning, DRR and CCA. This requires coordinated efforts from policymakers, researchers and practitioners to enhance the resilience of farmers and agriculture-dependent communities.
Implementation Considerations: People Centred Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems
Effective disaster management requires people-centred multi-hazard early warning systems (PCMHEWS) that prioritize community needs and engagement. The Arab region is vulnerable to climate-related hazards, and PCMHEWS can help reduce disaster risks. Leveraging digital technologies, community participation and inclusive communication channels is crucial for the success of PCMHEWS, ensuring timely and accurate warnings reach vulnerable populations.
Implementation Considerations: Comprehensive risk management to tackle systemic risks
Effective management of systemic risks requires comprehensive risk management (CRM) approaches that integrate DRR and CCA. The Arab region can foster policy coherence by enhancing strategic, conceptual, institutional, operational and financial coherence, ultimately driving sustainable development and inclusive growth.
Implementation Considerations: Financing and de-risking investment
Despite its natural advantages as a commerce hub, the region struggles to attract foreign investment. The League of Arab Nations (LAS) MA’AN Initiative towards DErisking investment offers a promising solution, promoting sustainable development and investment through regional cooperation. By addressing common challenges and promoting knowledge sharing, this initiative can help drive growth, job creation and energy transformation in the region.
Conclusion and way forward
- The focus of this RAR is on DRR in the context of climate change impact on systemic risks in the Arab region.
- The Arab region may be on the brink of catastrophe, beset by a perfect storm of risks that imperil its very foundations, jeopardizing stability, development and the future of its people.
- The principal drivers of risk in the Arab region are related to natural resources and institutions. Climate change increases the risk in both these areas, especially through rising water scarcity and a demanding need for institutions that can effectively tackle climate impacts.
- These drivers are not isolated, but highly interwoven, thus increasing, cascading and compounding risks, which may lead to systemic failures in the Arab region.
- Effective governance, characterized by transparency, accountability and inclusivity, is paramount in addressing these challenges and enhancing resilience across the Arab region.
- Many cities and other areas in the Middle East might become uninhabitable before the century’s end.
- The findings emphasize the need for innovative solutions and the adoption of multi-hazard, multi-sectoral approaches to resilience-building. This includes investing in risk-informed planning, enhancing data collection and analysis and harnessing cutting-edge technologies like artificial intelligence to drive predictive analytics, optimize decision-making and foster proactive resilience.
- The path forward requires a collective commitment to addressing the root causes of vulnerability in the Arab region and fostering resilience in the face of uncertainty.
- The recommendations of this report serve as a roadmap for policymakers and stakeholders to navigate the complexities of the region’s risk landscape.