MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Ministry of Defence analyses future global strategic trends

• Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2055 describes key drivers of change.
• Long-term document forms seventh edition of strategic foresight analysis.
• Analysis highlights possible future opportunities and challenges.

Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2055 describes key drivers of change and illustrates alternative future worlds to test planning assumptions and help decision-makers prepare for an uncertain world.

The findings and deductions do not represent the official policy of the UK government or that of the MOD, but the findings will be considered as part of the Strategic Defence Review, which will make sure our Armed Forces are bolstered and that our country has the capabilities needed to ensure the UK’s resilience for the long term.

The document indicates an abundance of opportunities, alongside new and existing challenges in the global outlook. Notable areas of potential future trends for Defence include: 

• A highly uncertain future for Russia, with the outcome of its war in Ukraine and the implications of this being key to its future power and status.
• China will continue to use economic interdependencies, underpinned by military strength, as core means to achieve its objectives.
• In an age of increasing uncertainty, the need to build resilience, agility and new forms of deterrence will be paramount.
• An expansion in the number of nuclear-armed states fielding more powerful weapons, combined with new weapons of mass effect, could create new challenges.
• Military shaping power will remain one of the ultimate levers of power. Space and cyberspace will increasingly be a key factor in battlefield success.

This edition marks more than 20 years of strategic foresight analysis conducted by the MOD’s internal think tank. The authors gathered a diverse range of insights and research to present a global view of the long-term future, focusing on key areas such as social, economic, environmental and security factors.

Chief of the Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, said:

The need to examine the implications of these future trends in a more openly contested and volatile world, as well as the possible shocks that may emerge, is a crucial task to assist policy makers and senior leaders.

Commander Strategic Command, General Sir Jim Hockenhull, said:

I am delighted to release this latest edition of Global Strategic Trends. All seven publications, over the last 20 years, have promoted an open-minded approach to understanding the context and conduct of Defence and Security.

This rich and diverse programme of work, by Strategic Command, deliberately does not represent UK policy, instead it provides policymakers with a future strategic context to aid long-term decision-making, capability planning and strategy development.

Its key conclusions indicate an abundance of opportunities but also highlight the combination of new and existing challenges that will redefine the contours of economies, societal structures, governance and defence.

The work identifies six key interconnected drivers of change that are most likely to determine what the future might look like. These are: global power competition; demographic pressures; climate change and pressure on the environment; technological advances and connectivity; economic transformation and energy transition; and inequality and pressure on governance.

‘Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2055’ has been produced with cross-government support and international collaboration. Thousands of individuals were engaged during the research and writing process along with numerous national governments and several multilateral organisations, including NATO.

Background

• The first edition of GST, published in 2003, was designed to support the development of the MOD’s Future Strategic Context for Defence and subsequent White Papers. Since then, each edition has served to inform the various iterations of top-level strategic documents.