Translartion. Region: Russians Fedetion –
Source: State University Higher School of Economics – State University Higher School of Economics –
The Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge at the National Research University Higher School of Economics has assessed the potential economic impact of the introduction and use of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in sectors of the Russian economy until 2035, as well as the amount of resources that organizations will need to master this class of technologies.
For reference: the calculations were made based on the results obtained during the implementation in 2024 of the event “Monitoring the creation and results of the application of artificial intelligence technologies in order to assess the level of implementation of these technologies in the sectors of the economy and social sphere” of the federal project “Artificial Intelligence”.
Despite the rapid development of AI technologies, only a relatively small number of enterprises successfully use them in business processes. The mass implementation of AI technologies in the Russian economy should be expected on the horizon up to 2035. Experts from the ISSEK HSE estimated what economic effect (increase in added value of industries) this may lead to in the next decade. According to forecast estimates, the total contribution from the use of AI technologies in all sectors of the economy to Russia’s GDP will amount to 11.6 trillion rubles in 2030, and will reach 46.5 trillion rubles in 2035 (Fig. 1).
The main contribution to the creation of the economic effect from the use of AI in 2035 will come from six industries: manufacturing (RUB 7.7 trillion), construction (RUB 4 trillion), professional, scientific and technical activities (RUB 3.7 trillion), transportation and storage (RUB 2.6 trillion), finance and insurance (RUB 2.5 trillion), and healthcare and social services (RUB 1.7 trillion). It is noteworthy that in the ICT1 sector, which plays a key role in the development of AI technologies, the economic effect from their use will be relatively small (RUB 2.2 trillion in 2035).
The mass implementation of AI technologies in the Russian economy in the next ten years depends, among other things, on the ability of enterprises to significantly (approximately 12 times) increase their total annual spending on AI. In terms of industry, the ICT sector will remain among the leaders in terms of investment in AI (a significant portion of Russian companies will continue to purchase ready-made solutions created by organizations in this sector), while its share in the structure of the analyzed costs may decrease slightly (from 19% in 2023 to 14% in 2035) against the background of an increase in spending on AI by organizations in other industries (from 118.5 billion in 2023 to 1.6 trillion rubles in 2035) (Table 1).
One of the key resources required for the effective implementation and use of AI is qualified workers. According to forecast estimates, over the period 2023–2035, the total number of AI specialists in Russia may grow from 48.3 to 463.5 thousand people (Table 2).
By the end of the forecast period, the share of AI specialists employed in the ICT sector may decrease significantly (from 41% in 2023 to 23% in 2035); since most jobs for specialists in this field will be created in other sectors of the economy. In 2035, more than a quarter (26%) of AI specialists may be employed in the manufacturing industry, another 29% in five sectors of the economy: professional, scientific and technical activities (12%), finance and insurance (5%), transportation and storage (5%), healthcare and social services (4%), construction (4%).
The publication was prepared within the framework of the project “Monitoring of artificial intelligence technologies and digital transformation of the economy and society” of the thematic plan of research work provided for by the State Assignment of the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
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Suggested citation:
Dranev Yu. Ya., Kuchin I. I., Miryakov M. I. (2025) Economic effect from the implementation of artificial intelligence technologies in Russia. Moscow – ISSEK HSE. Access mode: https://issek.hse.ru/news/1022068478.html.
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