Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Mar 17, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 17 00:37:02 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 170037
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Valid 170100Z – 171200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS…
…SUMMARY…
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.
…01Z Update…
Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across
ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into
Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift
south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a
low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the
long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal
surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level
flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic
front will be the primary demarcation for organized
convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few
hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in
convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This
activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared
environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado
risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell
structures.
..Darrow.. 03/17/2025
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