Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Mar 19, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 19 16:36:25 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 191636
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
Valid 201200Z – 211200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not
expected.
…Synopsis…
A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper
trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold
front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by
marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints).
Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may
encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid
Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow
just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a
few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust
coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this
time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may
be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold
temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote
enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms.
..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025
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