Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 5, 2025
Updated: Sat Apr 5 08:50:03 UTC 2025
.
D4
Tue, Apr 08, 2025 – Wed, Apr 09, 2025
D7
Fri, Apr 11, 2025 – Sat, Apr 12, 2025
D5
Wed, Apr 09, 2025 – Thu, Apr 10, 2025
D8
Sat, Apr 12, 2025 – Sun, Apr 13, 2025
D6
Thu, Apr 10, 2025 – Fri, Apr 11, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050848
SPC AC 050848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025
Valid 081200Z – 131200Z
…DISCUSSION…
A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Atlantic Coastal
states on Tuesday, as a dry airmass moves across the eastern and
southern U.S. From Wednesday to Friday, a mid-level trough is
forecast move southeastward from the central states into the eastern
U.S., becoming increasingly amplified with time. Ahead of this
feature, instability is forecast to remain weak. Isolated severe
storms would be possible ahead of the trough in the lower Missouri
and mid Mississippi Valleys Wednesday night. The severe threat is
forecast to shift eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on
Thursday, and to the Carolinas on Friday. One of these days could be
a potentially more active severe weather day, but predictability
remains low concerning trough timing, magnitude of instability and
convective mode. In the Great Plains from Friday into Saturday,
model forecasts suggest a moist airmass will advect northward across
the southern and central Plains. At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast
to move eastward across the central U.S. from Friday into Saturday.
Isolated severe storms that develop in the vicinity of the ridge
should be marginalized due to a lack of large-scale ascent.
..Broyles.. 04/05/2025
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