Source: The Conversation – UK – By Julia Young, Associate Professor, History, Catholic University of America
For many observers of the 2024 US presidential election, Donald Trump’s ability to harness so much of the Latino vote remains one of the more puzzling issues. Latino voters – men in particular – swung decisively towards Trump last November: increasing by 16 points from 2016 to 42% of the bloc in 2024.
This despite Trump’s consistent history of antagonistic remarks about Latino immigrants. It also appears to fly in the face of the fact that his policies on tariffs, border militarisation and mass deportations will likely affect Mexico, Panama and several other Latin American countries.
Clearly, Latinos swung towards Trump for the same reason many other voters did. Many were unhappy with the economy (particularly inflation). There was also widespread anxiety about a marked increase in immigration at the southern border.
But there are more profound reasons driving the dramatic shift in the Latino vote. A closer look at some of the historical dynamics that have shaped the Latino electorate gives a clue for the reason behind this seeming paradox.
The Latino vote comprises about 14.7% of all eligible US voters. Yet it is far from a monolith. It is a heterogeneous group of people who trace their roots to Mexico, Cuba, Puerto Rico and the rest of the 21 Spanish-speaking countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Each of these countries has a different political landscape. They are made up of vastly different people with a different background and distinct cultures. And these differences shape disparate Latino identities in the United States. The term “Latino” itself is a blanket term. It can include extremely different populations: Afro-Dominicans in the Bronx, white Cubans in Miami, indigenous Mexicans in Los Angeles, mestizo Salvadorans in Washington DC and a vast array of others.
Even within these national groups, there are also significant divisions. Partly, this is based on a person’s time of arrival in the US. Mexican-Americans whose families immigrated to California from border cities like Chihuahua and Ciudad Juárez in the early 1940s as seasonal (and legal) agricultural workers will have different experiences and priorities than Mexicans who arrived more recently from the southern states of Chiapas and Oaxaca and settled in New York City without any legal pathway to citizenship. Meanwhile, Nicaraguan-American families who arrived in Miami in the 1980s fleeing the Sandinista revolution will have a different economic outlook from those escaping Daniel Ortega’s current dictatorship.
There’s no such thing as a generic “Latino” voter. The Latino population in the US needs to be understood as a heterogeneous one, made up of people with different experiences, priorities and preferences.
Latino conservatism
For many decades, Latinos were reliable Democratic voters – and many pundits predicted that they would stay that way, tipping the political scales decisively away from the Republican Party. But there has always been a strong strain of Latino conservatives voting Republican.
Religion plays a key role here. The majority of people of Latino heritage are Catholic. But there is a growing population of Evangelicals and other Christian denominations, reflecting a growth of those groups in some Latin American countries.
In El Salvador, for example, the rise of Evangelical religions has produced an increasingly culturally conservative population, who support the “mano dura” (strong hand) policies of Nayib Bukele. A similar trend can be found among Latino communities in the US, where Latino Evangelicals strongly supported Trump in 2024.
The political history of many Latin American countries is a clue to the make-up for migrants to the US. Mexico’s Cristero War in the 1920s prompted thousands of Catholics to flee the country’s anti-clerical government by migrating northwards. Three decades later, the Cuban revolution of 1959 produced large refugee flows of conservative and anticommunist migrants. These exiled groups – most notably, Cubans in South Florida – would ally with Republicans based on their punitive policies towards Cuba. This has helped turn Florida into a Republican stronghold.
More recently, 7 million Venezuelans fled the left-wing government of Nicolás Maduro. This has led to a more general antipathy among many Latino voters towards left-wing politics and politicians. Trump’s condemnation of Maduro and Venezuela has endeared him to politically conservative Latino voters of all national backgrounds.
Race, class, and immigration
Interestingly, it was also clear that some Latino voters are suspicious and resentful of newer waves of migrants, particularly recent asylum-seekers from Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba.
This dynamic between earlier arrivals and new immigrants is nothing new in the US. Earlier waves of immigrants and their descendants, such as Irish or Italian immigrants, also adopted nativist attitudes towards newer arrivals. In some ways, each generation of immigrants has tried to “pull up the bridge” to the generation that comes after them.
Yet these negative reactions also relate to racial and class hierarchies both within and between Latin American countries. Like the US, Latin American countries have a long history of racism and colour discrimination, as well as deep class divides and very high rates of income inequality.
New immigrants who have arrived in recent years from places such as Venezuela, Honduras, Cuba and Nicaragua are poorer than earlier generations of immigrants – and often have darker skin. As a result, cultural divides may impede a strong sense of solidarity between earlier generations of Latino immigrants and recent arrivals.
This is not to suggest that racism and classism are the dominant drivers behind Latino support for Trump. But it may help explain why Trump’s campaign comments about recent Latino immigrants were not a dealbreaker for every Latino voter.
Ultimately, the Latino Trump supporter may not represent such a paradox after all. The so-called “Latino voter” is really a multiethnic, diverse bloc of people. While they share common linguistic and cultural features, Latinos are also motivated by a wide variety of religious, political and cultural factors that can be traced back to their own or their families’ experiences in Latin America.
The Latino vote is complex. Politicians who want to win their support would do well to understand how these complicated identities inform their political decisions and allegiances. It appears at the moment the Republicans are doing this better than their Democratic rivals.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
– ref. Why so many Latino voters supported Donald Trump – https://theconversation.com/why-so-many-latino-voters-supported-donald-trump-248806
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