January 2025 was the hottest on record – a whole 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels. If many climate-watchers expected the world to cool slightly this year thanks to the natural “La Niña” phenomena, the climate itself didn’t seem to get the memo. In fact, January 2025’s record heat highlights how human-driven ocean warming is increasingly overwhelming these natural climate patterns.
La Niña is a part of the El Niño southern oscillation, a climate fluctuation that slowly sloshes vast bodies of water and heat between different ocean basins and disrupts weather patterns around the world. El Niño was first identified and christened by Peruvian fishermen who noticed a dismal drop in their catch of sardines that coincided with much warmer than usual coastal waters.
El Niño is now well known to be part of a grander climate reorganisation that also has a reverse cool phase, La Niña. As vast swathes of the eastern Pacific cool down during La Niña, this has knock on effects for atmospheric weather patterns, shifting the most vigorous storms from the central Pacific to the west and disrupting the prevailing winds across the globe.
This atmospheric reaction also helps to amplify the sea surface temperature changes. Typically, La Niña will lower the global temperature by a couple of tenths of a degree Celsius.
In 2024 the Pacific swung from moderate El Niño conditions to a weak La Niña. However, this time around, it’s apparently not enough to stop the world warming – even temporarily. So what’s different this time?
Each La Niña cycle is unique
Scientists aren’t entirely surprised. Each El Niño and La Niña cycle is unique. Following an surprisingly lengthy “triple dip” La Niña starting in 2020, the El Niño that developed in 2023 was also unusual, struggling to stand out against globally warm seas. The switch to a weak La Niña has only slightly cooled a narrow band along the equatorial Pacific, while surrounding waters have remained unusually hot.
Recent research shows human caused warming of the ocean is accelerating – so a year on year rise in temperature is itself getting bigger – and this is dominating to an ever greater extent over El Niño and other natural oscillations in the climate. This means that even during La Niña – when equatorial eastern Pacific waters are cooler than normal – the rest of the world’s oceans have remained remarkably warm.
More carbon, less reflection
There is also a sense of inevitability as greenhouse gas levels continue to grow, even despite the demise of El Niño. During El Niño years, the land tends to absorb less carbon from the atmosphere as large continental areas, such as parts of South America, temporarily dry out causing less plant growth and more carbon-emitting plant decay.
La Niña tends to have the opposite effect. In the strong La Niña of 2011, so much extra rain fell on the normally dry lands of Australia and parts of South America and southeast Asia that sea levels dropped as the land held on to this excess moisture borrowed temporarily from the ocean. This meant more carbon was taken from the atmosphere to feed extra plant growth. But despite the switch to La Niña, the rate of rise in atmospheric carbon in 2024 and January 2025 remains above the already high levels of previous years.
To this we can also add the diminishing effects of particle pollution from industry, big ships and other sources of “aerosols”, which in some regions had added a reflective haze in the atmosphere meaning the world absorbed less sunlight. Clean air policies introduced over time have made the world less smoggy, but they also seem to have caused clouds to reflect less sunlight back to space, adding to global heating.
As industrial activity continues to spew greenhouse gases into the air, while air cleansed of particle pollution causes more sunlight to reach the ground, this growing heating effect is beginning to drown out natural fluctuations, tipping the balance toward record warmth and worsening hot, dry and wet extremes.
The long-term trend is clear
But, just as one swallow doesn’t make a summer, a single month is not reflective of the overall trajectory of climate change. Changing weather patterns from week to week can rapidly shift temperatures especially over big landmasses, which warm up and cool down more quickly than the oceans (it takes a long time to boil up water for your vegetables but not long to super heat an empty pan).
Large areas of Europe, Canada and Siberia experienced much less cold weather than is normal for January (by up to about 7°C). Parts of South America, Africa, Australia and Antarctica also experienced above average temperatures. Along with the balmy oceans, this all contributed to an unexpectedly warm start to 2025.
While this particular warm January isn’t necessarily cause for immediate alarm, it suggests natural cooling phases may become less effective at temporarily offsetting the impact of rising greenhouse gas levels on global temperatures. And to limit the scale of the inevitable, ensuing climate change, there is a clear, urgent need to rapidly and massively cut greenhouse gas emissions and to properly account for the true cost of our lifestyles on societies and the ecosystems that underpin them.
Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?
Richard P. Allan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Following Donald Trump’s repeated claims that the US needs to “take back” the Panama canal from Chinese control, the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, visited Panama to demand the country reduce China’s influence. On the surface, it seems Rubio has succeeded.
On February 3, the Panamanian authorities withdrew from the China’s international infrastructure programme, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This makes Panama the first Latin American country both to endorse and to end cooperation with the BRI.
On February 4, local lawyers urged the country’s supreme court to cancel the concession given to Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Port Holdings which allows it to operate two ports at either end of the Panama canal. They say it violates the country’s constitution since it contains excessive tax breaks and cedes significant land areas to the port company. The Panamanian authorities are reportedly still considering this.
But what is the reality of China’s presence in the canal, and what does increased US scrutiny mean for Xi Jinping’s signature project?
The Panama canal is a key passage for US trade and military. The US accounts for 74% of canal cargo. However, while Trump’s fears of losing the canal may be understandable, his assertions about China’s influence are exaggerated.
The Panamanian government administers the canal through the Panama Canal Authority. Since 1997, CK Hutchison Port Holdings Limited, a Hong Kong-listed conglomerate with interests in over 53 ports in 24 countries, has operated the Port of Balboa and Port of Cristobal on either end of the canal. These are two out of five ports in the vicinity.
CK Hutchison Holdings Limited is one of the world’s leading port investors and is owned by billionaire Li Ka-shing. The company and projects have no direct ties with the BRI.
The primary risks concerning China’s influence over the canal, as outlined by the US, are the potential for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to control the canal and “shut it down”.
Washington has also expressed concerns that the CCP’s access to dual-use port technology allows it to gather intelligence about US ships, such as transshipment patterns and naval routes. It also fears that China can exert an “economic chokehold” on the US in terms of the imposition of rate hikes on transit fees.
The first two points encompass the potential for China to use ports for naval purposes. But while the People’s Liberation Army navy has access to Chinese-owned ports under domestic laws and policies, they require host country permission to use Chinese-operated foreign ports. These ports are also often ill-suited for military support and operations.
So the most probable risk concerns intelligence. If the CCP deems it necessary to national security, it may use the 2020 national security law to gather sensitive data from Hong Kong-based companies.
As for rate hikes, there have been recent increases in response to droughts, maintenance investments and demand. Following Rubio’s visit, the US has claimed it is allowed to transit without paying fees.
This has been denied by Panama’s President, José Raúl Mulino. The fees are equally imposed due to neutrality principles initiated in 1977. There is no evidence that China has played any role in these rate hikes.
Panama’s ‘BRI-xit’ and Trump’s geopolitical gamble
In the unlikely event that CK Hutchison’s concession is cancelled, what would that mean for China’s presence in Panama? China’s investments in Panama precede the BRI, even if they have increased since the initiative’s launch.
The country holds geostrategic importance due to its location and role in international trade. So it’s a critical link for China’s establishment of a regional gateway for its economic and political influence.
This includes securing raw material and energy resource imports and enhancing export capabilities. China’s engagements in Panama include foreign direct investments (FDI), which amounted to around 0.8% in 2023 (compared to 3.6% by Spain and 19.6% by the US), primarily in the logistics, infrastructure, energy and construction sectors.
Most have been promoted as part of the BRI and faced renegotiation or cancellation for various – often geopolitical – reasons.
Since BRI projects in the canal are already quite limited, withdrawing from the initiative is unlikely to result in significant short-term changes. CK Hutchison will only be “slightly affected” in case of a contract cancellation.
What’s more, as the case of Brazil shows, a country can remain unaffiliated with the BRI and still receive Chinese investments.
Therefore, Chinese engagements will probably resume outside the BRI framework. Still, even though China has shown restrained disappointment and argued that Panama has made a “regrettable decision,” Sino-Panamanian relations may cool until Trump’s attention has turned elsewhere.
Trump’s rhetoric over the Panama canal may be exaggerated to appease a domestic audience rooting for a “strongman president”. But it also reflects decades of US concerns about China’s growing clout.
So the administration’s focus on containing China is hardly surprising. Instead, it demonstrates Trump’s broader “make America great again 2.0” strategy. Therefore, Panama’s “BRI-xit” may bolster US resolve on “reclaiming” the Americas.
The Panamanian authorities seem caught between US pressure to limit China’s influence and the economic boost provided by Chinese “pragmatic” investments. So like other BRI countries, they face tough choices in the coming years.
As the largest provider of FDI – US$3.8 billion (£3.05 billion) per annum – and the canal’s biggest customer, US influence and economic leverage over Panama is substantial. Conversely, China’s interests and engagements in the country have increased, and the CCP has made it clear that it is patient and wants to continue cooperation and “resist external interruption”.
Protests have erupted in Panama over Trump’s “muscular approach”, and residents have expressed strong reluctance to return to US rule. Therefore, the question remains whether this is the “great step forward” for Panama’s ties with the US that Rubio suggests or whether Trump’s actions will ultimately push Panama closer to Beijing.
Tabita Rosendal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
“Here they are, my lost people, in need of strongmen and simple ideas,” says Benito Mussolini to the camera. It is March 23 1919, and all that we know will happen in Italy and all that we know this man will become is only just being set in motion. Mussolini: Son of the Century, a new Italian-language Sky Atlantic TV series, tells the story of this beginning, of the rise of Italian fascism and its consolidation in power from 1919 to 1925.
Set out in eight parts, it’s a striking and powerful piece of TV. Italian actor Luca Marinelli performs indomitably as the 35-year-old soon-to-be dictator, Benito Mussolini. Our reviewer, expert in Italian history John Foot, has spent countless hours studying and watching Mussolini. He was blown away by the precision with which Marinelli expels torrents of words – many of which have been drawn directly from Mussolini’s journalism and speeches.
The series is coming at a moment when far-right leaders are winning elections all over the world and its director, Joe Wright, is keenly aware. This series is clearly a warning. Democracy is fragile. Yes, this series is about the man who would become “Il Duce” (the Duke) but it shows, as Foot notes, how he was enabled and how easily his incendiary language and the violence of his supporters were ignored.
Mussolini: Son of the Century is available on Sky Atlantic now
If you’re looking to learn about another bit of global history through brilliant storytelling let me recommend the director Tim Fehlbaum’s new film September 5. The film recounts the Black September attack on the Israeli team at the 1972 Munich Olympics.
As our reviewer, film expert Barry Langford writes, this incident arguably introduced the term “terrorist” to many viewers for the first time. The story has been told many times but the focus here is on the American sports broadcasting crew tasked with covering the hostage crisis. The drama unfolds almost entirely within the confines of the control room.
It is a tense and tightly-packed 94 minutes that does this story justice and shows that big topics can be handled well in short (for these days) films.
Another historical fiction recommendation is the new book from the Nobel literature prize-winning South Korean author Han Kang, We Do Not Part. First published in 2021 and now translated into English, it takes on the memories and lasting shadow of Jeju 4.3 (1947 to 1948) on the families who survived.
The official figure of how many people died is still not known, and it’s assumed that around 10% of the population of Jeju island was killed during this US-backed operation by the Korean government to eradicate communists and their sympathisers. The incident was suppressed by the government until 2000 when it was officially recognised.
In this book, Kang bears witness to the horror through Kyungha, who is snowed in at her friend Inseon’s compound in Jeju. There, she discovers Inseon’s lifelong investigation into her family’s experiences of the massacres.
It is told in a sort of dizzying, fragmentary style where excerpts of interviews, descriptions of pictures and passages of memories intersect with Kyungha’s present. Haunting and harrowing at times, it features Han Kang’s typical precise language and brilliantly unnerving and dreamlike storytelling.
Film’s fascination with the possibility of sexy female robots goes back to Fritz Lang’s Metropolis in 1927. Men lust after these robots, but also fear them – and often rightly so. Some of my favourites in this genre are Ridley Scott’s Blade Runner (1982), Alex Garland’s Ex Machina (2014) and now Drew Hancock’s Companion (2025).
Companion follows Iris and Josh, a seemingly average couple bound in their driverless car for a weekend away with Josh’s friends. Iris, like many girlfriends in this scenario, is eager to be a success. But, she isn’t a normal girl, she’s a sophisticated humanoid companion bot – something she doesn’t know about herself … yet. What begins with dinner parties and dancing soon devolves into violence as something in her programming goes wrong.
As our reviewer Sarah Artt notes: “What makes Companion unsettling is not so much its depiction of cyborgs but rather its portrayal of misogyny.” This glossy film asks what makes someone a good partner to anyone, sophisticated robot or otherwise. Does our treatment and respect of humanoid bots and AI matter? I saw this film last week and am still thinking about it.
Finally, if you are in or happen to be going to Winchester this month, pop by the cathedral to gawp in awe at three huge sculptures of sperm whales hanging from the ceiling in the nave. The immersive exhibition Whales is by artist Tessa Campbell Fraser and asks visitors to stare up at the majesty of these almighty creatures and contemplate humankind’s increasing ecological impact on the world’s climate.
Whales is on at Winchester Cathedral until February 26.
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Source: United States Senator for Nevada Cortez Masto
Washington, D.C. – U.S. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) joined Senator Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) in reintroducing the bipartisan Filipino Veterans Family Reunification Act, a bill that would speed up the visa process for the children of Filipino veterans who served in the United States military during World War II.
“The Filipino veterans who fought for our country in World War II deserve our gratitude and respect, and that should extend to their families as well,” said Senator Cortez Masto. “Our bipartisan legislation would provide certainty to the hundreds of Filipino veterans whose children have been caught up in the complicated, drawn-out process of receiving their green cards.”
During World War II, more than 260,000 Filipinos served in the United States Armed Forces. In 1990, President George H. W. Bush granted U.S. citizenship to 26,000 of those Filipino veterans, but not their children. As a result, those children have had to apply for green cards in a lengthy, delayed process that has left them in limbo for years. The Filipino Veterans Family Reunification Act would amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to exempt the sons and daughters of those Filipino veterans and allow them to receive their green cards on an expedited timeline.
Senator Cortez Masto has been a consistent advocate for the Filipino veteran community. Last year, she successfully included a provision in the National Defense Authorization Act ensuring Filipino veterans who fought alongside U.S. troops in World War II and the Vietnam War can be buried in state veterans’ cemeteries. Through her Brian Neuman Act, Senator Cortez Masto was able to remove roadblocks for disabled veterans accessing their benefits. She also helped pass the PACTAct to ensure veterans suffering from toxic exposure in the line of duty get the medical care they need and worked across the aisle to get legislation helping veterans exposed to Agent Orange and expanding benefits for women veterans signed into law.
Source: United States Senator Ben Ray Luján (D-New Mexico)
Washington, D.C. – U.S. Senators Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) and Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) joined U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-LA) and 25 of their colleagues in calling for the immediate implementation of the Social Security Fairness Act to provide full Social Security benefits for millions of public servants impacted by Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO). The Social Security Fairness Act, which Senators Heinrich and Luján cosponsored, fully repeals the two unfair Social Security provisions, WEP and GPO. The Social Security Fairness Act was signed into law on January 5, 2024 after Senators Heinrich and Luján voted to advance legislation on the Senate floor.
“The Social Security Fairness Act restores full Social Security benefits for the millions of teachers, police officers, firefighters, and other public servants who are unfairly penalized by the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO),” wrote the senators.
“The Social Security Administration’s website currently states, ‘SSA expects that it could take more than one year to adjust benefits and pay all retroactive benefits’ owed under the Social Security Fairness Act. We call for the immediate implementation of this legislation to provide prompt relief to the millions of Americans impacted by WEP and GPO,” continued the senators.
Senators Heinrich, Luján, and Cassidy were joined by Senators Dan Sullivan (R-AK), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Jerry Moran (R-KS), Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), Deb Fischer (R-NE), Susan Collins (R-ME), Pete Ricketts (R-NE), John Fetterman (D-PA), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), Alex Padilla (D-CA), John Hickenlooper (D-CO), Angus King (I-ME), Jon Ossoff (D-GA), Jack Reed (D-RI), Dick Durbin (D-IL), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Tim Kaine (D-VA), Cory Booker (D-NJ), Mark Warner (D-VA), Peter Welch (D-VT), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI).
Read the full letter here or below:
Dear Acting Commissioner King,
We write to you concerning the implementation of the Social Security Fairness Act (Public Law No: 118-273). This legislation passed Congress on an overwhelmingly bipartisan basis on December 21st, 2024 and was signed into law on January 5th, 2025. The Social Security Fairness Act restores full Social Security benefits for the millions of teachers, police officers, firefighters, and other public servants who are unfairly penalized by the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO).
The Social Security Administration’s website currently states, “SSA expects that it could take more than one year to adjust benefits and pay all retroactive benefits” owed under the Social Security Fairness Act. We call for the immediate implementation of this legislation to provide prompt relief to the millions of Americans impacted by WEP and GPO. In the interim, we request monthly updates and briefings regarding the status of the Social Security Administration’s progress towards implementing the Social Security Fairness Act.
Thank you for your prompt attention to this important matter. We look forward to your response.
Montpelier, Vt. – Governor Phil Scott today announced Commissioner of Health Mark A. Levine MD will be retiring at the end of March 2025.
“Dr Levine has been a tremendous asset, to not only me, but the entire State of Vermont. I know this decision weighed heavily on him, as he deeply loves helping others, which was apparent throughout his career in medicine as well as his last eight years in public service,” said Governor Phil Scott. “I will be forever grateful for his advice and counsel over the years, but especially during the pandemic, as he appeared with me daily at press conferences during those difficult days, giving much comfort to Vermonters as our very own “Country Doc.” I wish him well in the next chapter of his life.”
Dr. Levine, 71, of Shelburne was first appointed by Governor Scott in 2017 and is currently one of the Administration’s longest-tenured commissioners. He led his department through the COVID-19 pandemic and has served as a key advisor on public health matters.
“The opportunity to serve Vermonters has been truly career and life-changing for me,” said Dr. Levine. “The work we do is so meaningful, challenging, necessary, and gratifying. While proud of our accomplishments, none of them would have been possible without the professional, dedicated, resilient, and passionate team at the Department of Health. They join me each day in enthusiastically getting up for work and striving to honor and accomplish the mission of the department.”
“Dr. Levine was a steady, reassuring voice through the pandemic, and in the months of recovery that followed,” said Secretary of Human Services Jenney Samuelson. “Each week, during marathon press conferences, he calmly tackled complex topics in epidemiology and public health. I am incredibly grateful for the service and partnership of my friend and colleague, and I wish him all the best in a well-deserved change of pace.”
Key Accomplishments at the Department of Health
Under Commissioner Levine’s leadership, the Department focused on critical public health initiatives including: protecting children’s health through nurse home visiting programs for newborn children, lead exposure reduction, and prevention of adolescent drug, alcohol and tobacco use and vaping; opioid overdose and suicide deaths; health equity; and better emergency preparedness for infectious diseases, natural disasters, and potential biological threats.
About Doctor Mark Levine
Prior to joining the Health Department, Commissioner Levine had an active practice in general internal medicine and served as a Professor and Associate Dean for Graduate Medical Education at UVM’s Larner College of Medicine, where he continues to teach medical students and residents. He served on the American College of Physicians Board of Regents, and as vice president and president-elect of the Vermont Medical Society. Commissioner Levine holds a Bachelor of Arts in biology from the University of Connecticut and an M.D. from the University of Rochester. He completed his residency in internal medicine at UVM, where he served as chief resident, before a fellowship at the University of North Carolina.
Vice Adm. Mike Vernazza, Commander of Naval Information Forces (NAVIFOR) and the Navy’s IBoss, played a central role in the event, delivering the keynote address at the Information Warfare Pavilion and participating in a high-profile plenary panel on the conference’s opening day. His remarks underscored the increasing demand for IW capabilities in today’s rapidly evolving maritime security environment.
“In today’s battlespace, information is not just an enabler—it is a decisive warfighting tool,” said Vernazza. “Superiority at sea requires superiority in the information domain, and that means leveraging our capabilities across intelligence, cyber warfare, electronic warfare, and battlespace awareness.”
The IW Pavilion served as a focal point for discussions and demonstrations, drawing in military leaders, industry partners, and academia to explore the latest advancements in cyber warfare, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and secure communications. The pavilion provided an immersive experience showcasing how NAVIFOR is delivering cutting-edge IW capabilities to the fleet.
“The presence of the IW Pavilion at WEST is invaluable,” said IBoss. “It allows us to not only demonstrate our operational capabilities but also engage in meaningful discussions with the brightest minds in industry and academia. These conversations directly impact our ability to stay ahead of adversaries in the information domain.”
Having a strong IW presence at the largest maritime conference on the West Coast also reinforced the Navy’s emphasis on integrating IW across all warfare areas. Throughout the event, NAVIFOR leaders met with stakeholders to discuss critical topics such as strengthening cyber resilience, improving electromagnetic spectrum operations, and enhancing battlespace awareness for decision superiority.
“Our adversaries are rapidly advancing their own information warfare capabilities,” said Vernazza during the plenary panel discussion. “If we are not continuously innovating and refining our approach, we risk losing the advantage. Events like WEST allow us to collaborate, share knowledge, and accelerate the development of solutions that keep us ahead.”
NAVIFOR Sailors and civilians were also actively engaged throughout the conference, providing firsthand perspectives on how IW is applied in real-world operations. Panel discussions and breakout sessions focused on the evolving role of cyber warfare in naval operations, data-driven decision-making, and the challenges of securing networks in contested environments.
One of the key takeaways from WEST 2025 was the importance of partnerships. By fostering relationships between the military, industry, and academia, NAVIFOR continues to ensure the Navy has the tools and talent necessary to meet future challenges.
“We cannot do this alone,” Vernazza emphasized. “Our partnerships are essential to developing the cutting-edge technologies and strategies we need to maintain information dominance. The conversations we have here at WEST help shape the future of naval operations.”
As NAVIFOR looks to the future, its commitment to warfighter readiness and information warfare excellence remains steadfast. WEST 2025 served as both a showcase of capabilities and a reminder of the ever-growing importance of information warfare in achieving maritime superiority.
NAVIFOR’s mission is to generate, directly and through our leadership of the IW Enterprise, agile and technically superior manned, trained, equipped, and certified combat-ready IW forces to ensure our Navy will decisively DETER, COMPETE, and WIN.
For more information on NAVIFOR, visit the command Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/NavalInformationForces/ or the public web page at https://www.navifor.usff.navy.mil.
Manchester Crane survey from Deloitte measures the scale of developments and their impact across Manchester and Salford city centres.
Report covers residential, office, hotel, retail and leisure, student accommodation, education and research facilities and healthcare.
Salford growth being driven by residential sector.
The 2025 Manchester Crane Survey, the latest report which records the levels of development taking place across Manchester and Salford has been released. Published on 4 February, the report provides an update on ongoing activity across the construction sector from the past 12 months.
Once again there’s positivity across the sector on both sides of the Irwell, with the report highlighting that “Manchester and Salford continue to demonstrate remarkable resilience in the face of economic headwinds, solidifying their position as a thriving hub in the UK.
“This enduring strength is evident in the cities’ diversified economy, commitment to social equity, and focus on sustainability. While the construction sector faces challenges, Manchester’s skyline remains active with cranes, reflecting ongoing investment in its future.”
Paul Dennett, Salford City Mayor said: “We have clearly highlighted our strategic approach of delivering growth through regeneration and our commitment to promoting inclusive growth through our This is Our Salford Corporate Plan.
“Our goal is focused on providing all Salford residents with the opportunity to benefit from the city’s economic prosperity. A key component to this is rooted in improving the quality, range, and affordability of homes in the city, as well as increasing the number of homes across the city. Appropriate and sustainable residential growth is vital to creating a fairer, greener, healthier, and more inclusive city for all our residents.
These latest figures are positive, showing our approach and commitment in action as we continue to enable residential growth in a key and attractive area of the city.”
Produced by Deloitte, the international professional services company, the annual findings are seen as a key reflection of progress and growth for both cities. It records the volume and impact of development projects taking place across both cities. The focus is on Manchester and Salford city centres, which Deloitte classifies as the area which closely borders Manchester city centre.
The report focuses on four key themes: the resilience of Manchester and Salford’s economy; the commitment to inclusive growth, connecting residents to opportunity; the factors driving its success as a thriving city centre; and its strategic focus on innovation as a catalyst for continued prosperity.
Salford key highlights from the past year with projects either completed or under construction include:
100 affordable homes being constructed as part of a housing scheme at Peru Street, with new homes designed to Passivhaus standards
250 residential units at Berkeley Square Phase 1
376 residential units at Bridgewater Wharf
196 residential units at Merchants Wharf
178 residential units at The Dye Works
160 residential units at Silkbank Wharf
433 residential units at CityView Salford (Regent Plaza)
189 residential units at The Railings
296 residential units at Oldfield Wharf
196 residential units at Novella Phase 2
96 residential units at Greenhaus
250 residential units at Obsidian
542 residential units at Waterloo Place
300 residential units at The Embankment
444 residential units at Bankside
156 residential units at Uptown
Plus 175,000sqft of new office space at Four New Bailey – office 175,000sq ft completed 2024 and the new Maldron Hotel Chapel Street with 188 rooms.
Home » Latest News » Candidates confirmed for upcoming by-elections
Nominations have closed for the by-elections in Herne and Broomfield, St Stephen’s and Gorrell wards on Thursday 6 March and we can now confirm the candidates who are standing for election in each ward.
Gorrell:
Stuart Heaver (Green Party) Valerie Kenny (Labour Party) Janet Newcombe (Conservative Party) Nick Parry (Liberal Democrats) Babychan Thomas (Reform UK)
Herne and Broomfield:
Peter Campbell (Green Party) Lawrence Coomber (Labour Party) Derek Maslin (Liberal Democrats) Mark Mulvihill (Reform UK) Grace Paget (Conservative Party)
St Stephen’s:
Beth Forrester (Labour Party) Jessie Millner (Green Party) Christopher Palmer (Liberal Democrats) Colin Spooner (Reform UK) Arjan Taylor (Conservative Party)
The website also has all the important information voters in these wards need to know, such as key deadline dates for registering to vote if you are not already registered, postal/proxy vote applications and voter authority certificate applications.
Authorised voter identification will be required for anyone voting in person at a polling station.
Polling stations will be open between the normal hours of 7am and 10pm on Thursday 6 March.
The counts will then take place on Friday 7 March.
Drivers are reminded of traffic-pattern changes on Highway 99 at Steveston Highway over three weekends, beginning tonight, Friday, Feb. 7, 2025.
These changes are necessary as crews dismantle and remove the old Steveston Highway crossing.
Highway 99 will be closed in both directions overnight Friday, Saturday and Sunday from 9 p.m. until 8 a.m. (until 5 a.m. on Monday). During these overnight closures, Highway 99 travellers will detour using the highway on/off ramps.
From 8 a.m. until 9 p.m. Saturday and Sunday, Highway 99 will be open with two lanes in each direction. However, lanes may be shifted to allow crews and heavy equipment to dismantle and remove the old structure. Drivers are asked to use caution through any detours and obey the construction zone speed limit.
The traffic-pattern changes will also be in effect over the weekends of Feb. 21-24 and Feb. 28-March 3. There will be no impact to traffic during the week or over the Family Day long weekend.
During these weekend overnight lane closures and daytime traffic-pattern changes, drivers can expect delays and should consider an alternative route. Check DriveBC for updates: https://www.drivebc.ca/
Details about the traffic-pattern changes can be found here: https://www.highway99tunnel.ca/current-work/
CFTC Announces Crypto CEO Forum to Launch Digital Asset Markets Pilot | CFTC
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February 07, 2025
WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will hold a CEO Forum of industry-leading firms to discuss the launch of the CFTC’s digital asset markets pilot program for tokenized non-cash collateral such as stablecoins. Participants will include Circle, Coinbase, Crypto.com and Ripple. Further information on the CEO Forum will be released once details are finalized.
“I’m excited to announce this groundbreaking initiative for U.S. digital asset markets,” said Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham. “The CFTC is committed to responsible innovation. I look forward to engaging with market participants to deliver on the Trump Administration’s promise of ensuring that America leads the way on economic opportunity.”
Acting Chairman Pham has previously proposed a CFTC pilot program as a U.S. regulatory sandbox to provide regulatory clarity for digital asset markets and ensure that robust guardrails are in place. The CFTC has had success with pilot programs dating back to the 1990s.
The CFTC’s Global Markets Advisory Committee, sponsored by Acting Chairman Pham, released a recommendation last year by its Digital Asset Markets Subcommittee on expanding the use of non-cash collateral through distributed ledger technology.
”My and the entire Government’s warmest congratulations to Princess Sofia, Prince Carl Philip and their sons Prince Alexander, Prince Gabriel and Prince Julian, on the addition of a new family member today. We wish the family all the best,” says Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.
PITTSBURGH, Pa. – A resident of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, pleaded guilty in federal court on February 6, 2025, to a charge of child exploitation, Acting United States Attorney Troy Rivetti announced today.
Michael J. Close Jr., 53, of the Beechview neighborhood of Pittsburgh pleaded guilty to one count before United States District Judge Cathy Bissoon.
In connection with the guilty plea, the Court was advised that, on at least four occasions from May 16, 2022, through July 6, 2022, Close purchased and received from an online Russian vendor compressed and encrypted video and still image collections depicting the sexual exploitation of minors, some of whom were prepubescent. Close created a cryptocurrency account and, using a cryptocurrency exchange platform, transferred payment to the vendor in bitcoin. Once payment was received, the vendor provided Close with a password to access and view the encrypted videos and still images.
Judge Bissoon scheduled sentencing for May 28, 2025. The law provides for a maximum total sentence of not less than five years and up to 20 years in prison, a fine of up to $250,000, or both. Under the federal Sentencing Guidelines, the actual sentence imposed is based upon the seriousness of the offense and the prior criminal history, if any, of the defendant. Pending sentencing, the Court remanded Close to the custody of the United States Marshals Service.
Assistant United States Attorney Carolyn J. Bloch is prosecuting this case on behalf of the government.
Homeland Security Investigations in Pittsburgh and Portland, Maine, conducted the investigation that led to the prosecution of Close.
This case was brought as part of Project Safe Childhood, a nationwide initiative launched in May 2006 by the Department of Justice to combat the growing epidemic of child sexual exploitation and abuse. Led by the United States Attorneys’ Offices and the Criminal Division’s Child Exploitation and Obscenity Section, Project Safe Childhood marshals federal, state, and local resources to locate, apprehend, and prosecute individuals who sexually exploit children, and to identify and rescue victims. For more information about Project Safe Childhood, please visit www.justice.gov/psc.
JOHNSTOWN, Pa. – A resident of Johnstown, Pennsylvania, pleaded guilty in federal court on February 6, 2025, to charges of violating federal narcotics laws, Acting United States Attorney Troy Rivetti announced today.
Daniel Culmer, 57, pleaded guilty before United States District Judge Marilyn J. Horan to Count One of the Superseding Indictment and to violating conditions of his supervised release from a prior federal conviction.
In connection with the guilty plea, the Court was advised that, from in and around April 2021 to July 2021, in the Western District of Pennsylvania, Culmer conspired to distribute and possessed with intent to distribute a quantity of a mixture and substance containing cocaine base, in the form commonly known as crack. Culmer was intercepted on a federal wiretap obtaining quantities of the drug that he distributed to others. At the time of the offense, Culmer was on supervised release from a prior federal conviction in 2018 in the Western District of Pennsylvania for distributing heroin.
Judge Horan scheduled sentencing for May 29, 2025. The law provides for a maximum total sentence of up to 30 years in prison, a fine of up to $2 million, or both. Under the federal Sentencing Guidelines, the actual sentence imposed would be based upon the seriousness of the offense and the prior criminal history of the defendant.
Assistant United States Attorney Maureen Sheehan-Balchon is prosecuting this case on behalf of the government.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Laurel Highlands Resident Agency and Homeland Security Investigations conducted the investigation that led to the prosecution of Culmer. Additional agencies participating in this investigation include the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, Internal Revenue Service – Criminal Investigation, United States Postal Inspection Service, Pennsylvania Office of Attorney General, Pennsylvania State Police, Cambria County District Attorney’s Office, Indiana County District Attorney’s Office, Cambria County Sheriff’s Office, Cambria Township Police Department, Indiana Borough Police Department, Johnstown Police Department, Upper Yoder Township Police Department, Richland Police Department, Ferndale Police Department, and other local law enforcement agencies.
This prosecution is part of an Organized Crime Drug Enforcement Task Forces (OCDETF) investigation. OCDETF identifies, disrupts, and dismantles the highest-level drug traffickers, money launderers, gangs, and transnational criminal organizations that threaten the United States by using a prosecutor-led, intelligence-driven, multi-agency approach that leverages the strengths of federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies against criminal networks.
Marc H. Silverman, Acting United States Attorney for the District of Connecticut, and Michael J. Krol, Special Agent in Charge of Homeland Security Investigations (HSI), New England, today announced that the U.S. Attorney’s Office has returned approximately $328,573 to the victim of a computer support scam.
A computer support scam is a type of fraud scheme where an alert appears on the victim’s computer imitating a customer support alert, tricking the victim into contacting the bad actors. When the victim contacts the scammers, the scammers then take remote control of the computer and either directly transfer money from the victim to the scammers or trick the victim into sending money to the scammers.
According to the complaint (3:24cv840), in February 2024, an elderly woman who was tricked by a computer support scheme that mimicked Microsoft customer support transferred approximately $550,000 to the scammers in two wire transfers. Within two days of the transfers, the victim and a family member reported the incident to the Simsbury Police Department, who then partnered with HSI to investigate the crime. Fortunately, one of the wire transfers, in the amount of $221,000, was reversed by the bank and returned to the victim. HSI traced the remaining money, totaling approximately $328,573, and seized it. The U.S. Attorney’s Office then filed a civil asset forfeiture action to forfeit the money to the government, and the U.S. Attorney’s Office and HSI then worked with the Department of Justice’s Money Laundering and Asset Recovery Section (MLARS) to return the money to the victim. MLARS initiated the return of the money on February 4, 2025.
Generally, the U.S. Attorney’s Office first forfeits the money, then returns it to the crime victims, so that the crime victims have clear title to the property without risk of further litigation.
“The U.S. Attorney’s Office is committed to helping victims of crime, and civil asset forfeiture is a powerful tool that allows the government to return money to victims of fraud schemes,” said Acting U.S. Attorney Silverman. “As we continue to pursue criminal prosecution of the individuals responsible for this and other computer crimes, it is equally important to ensure that the government uses all of its tools to minimize, and in this case, undo, the financial impact these crimes have on victims. This case represents the best case scenario, where nearly every dollar taken from the victim was returned to her. While it can be difficult to come forward and admit that you have been victimized by online scammers, know that federal law enforcement and our state and local partners stand ready to help you to the fullest extent possible.”
“Cyber scams run by foreign malign actors are becoming more common and more sophisticated every day,” said HSI New England Special Agent in Charge Krol. “The victim in this case contacted authorities quickly resulting in the recovery of most of her money by the bank and by HSI – a best case scenario and rare result. It is essential for victims of these kinds of cybercrimes to come forward as soon as possible. We want the public to know that help is available and to reach out immediately if they’ve been victimized by international scammers.”
If you think you have been a victim of a computer support scam, immediately contact your bank or financial institution to request a recall or reversal as well as a Hold Harmless Letter or Letter of Indemnity, and contact local law enforcement. Additionally, file a detailed complaint with the Internet Crime Complaint Center at www.ic3.gov. The Internet Crime Complaint Center is run by the FBI and serves as the country’s hub for reporting cybercrime. Visit www.ic3.gov for updated information regarding cyber fraud schemes.
This case is being prosecuted by Assistant U.S. Attorney David C. Nelson.
CAMDEN, N.J. – A Mexican national admitted on Tuesday to trafficking cocaine and illegally re-entering the United States after previously sustaining an aggravated felony conviction, Acting U.S. Attorney Vikas Khanna announced.
Anastacio Santiago Chaparro, aka Arnoldo Urquidez, 41 of Mexico pleaded guilty to an indictment charging him with possession with intent to distribute cocaine and illegal reentry by a convicted felon before U.S. District Judge Edward S. Kiel in Camden federal court.
According to documents filed in this case and statements made in court:
On November 6, 2023, Santiago Chaparro was caught by law enforcement transporting a backpack that contained over 10 kilograms of cocaine. Santiago Chaparro admitted that the cocaine was intended for distribution. Additionally, Santiago Chaparro had been deported from the United States to Mexico three times and previously sustained a conviction for being an illegal alien in possession of a firearm, an aggravated felony.
The charge of possession with intent to distribute cocaine carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison and a fine of up to $1,000,000. The charge of illegal reentry by a convicted felon carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison and a fine of up to $250,000.
Acting U.S. Attorney Khanna credited special agents of Homeland Security Investigations Newark, under the direction of Special Agent in Charge Ricky Patel, and from the Drug Enforcement Administration New York, under the direction of Frank A. Tarentino, with the investigation.
The government is represented by Assistant U.S. Attorney Chana Y. Zuckier of the Bank Integrity, Money Laundering and Recovery Unit in Newark. Sentencing is scheduled for June 9, 2025, at 11:00 a.m.
Montgomery, Ala. – On February 6. 2025, a federal judge ordered 41-year-old Clifford Lane Brown, from Roanoke, Alabama, to serve 228 months in prison for possessing methamphetamine with the intent to distribute the illegal drug, announced Acting United States Attorney Kevin Davidson. The judge also ordered that Brown remain on supervised release for five years following his prison term. There is no parole in the federal system.
According to Brown’s plea agreement and other court records, on June 3, 2021, deputies with the Randolph County Sheriff’s Office went to a home in Roanoke to make contact with an individual residing there concerning an investigation unrelated to Brown. When deputies arrived, they observed a vehicle parked near the home’s front porch. There were two occupants inside the vehicle — one was a female, the other was Brown. As officers approached the vehicle, deputies saw that Brown was holding a handgun. Deputies ordered Brown to put the firearm down, and Brown complied. Investigators searched the vehicle and found a backpack containing six plastic bags of methamphetamine, a small glass jar of marijuana, a hypodermic needle, and multiple rounds of ammunition. Brown has previous felony convictions and is prohibited from possessing a firearm or ammunition.
The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) analyzed and weighed the methamphetamine. The DEA lab determined that there was a total of 76 grams of methamphetamine seized with a purity level of 98 percent. On October 28, 2024, Brown pleaded guilty to possessing more than 50 grams of methamphetamine with the intent to distribute the illegal drug.
The Randolph County Sheriff’s Office and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) investigated this case, with assistance from DEA. Assistant United States Attorney Justin L. Jones prosecuted the case.
The Lucy Letby case is the latest in a number of UK criminal medical cases that, beyond the rights and wrongs of each verdict, raise serious questions around how such cases are tried – especially when the evidence is limited, complex, and circumstantial. These cases often rely heavily on expert witnesses, whose testimony is crucial yet can be open to interpretation.
As an expert in the intersection of criminal and medical law, I am particularly concerned with how prosecution teams gather expert evidence in such cases – and how it is then communicated to juries through expert witnesses.
Generally speaking, in complex medical cases, police and prosecutors may risk becoming overly reliant on a small pool of experts when dealing with highly technical issues beyond their expertise. This dependence can inadvertently lead to “cherry-picking” – selectively presenting evidence that supports a particular narrative, while overlooking alternative perspectives that could provide a more comprehensive or balanced view.
In the Letby case, the prosecution’s selection and interpretation of evidence has now been challenged by an independent panel of 14 neonatal and paediatric experts. Letby is serving 15 whole-life prison terms after being convicted of murdering seven babies and attempting to kill another seven at the Countess of Chester hospital in north-west England. The chair of the panel, retired Canadian neonatologist Dr Shoo Lee, was co-author of a 1989 academic paper on air embolism in babies that was used in the prosecution’s case, but now says this evidence was misinterpreted by the prosecution.
In complex medical cases, I’m concerned that prosecutors – who may lack the medical expertise needed to fully grasp these complexities – may gravitate toward experts whose opinions align with a prosecutorial narrative, whether consciously or not. This can result in a narrowing of expert perspectives which might tend to focus only on those that bolster the case for conviction, while alternative views that could provide a more balanced assessment are excluded or marginalised.
In trials where juries hear only a limited number of expert voices, there’s a risk they may not receive a sufficiently balanced understanding of the case. In addition, rare diagnoses may lack the robust scientific literature typically needed to validate medical opinions in court.
Medical experts, like professionals in any field, can have differing opinions, especially in cases involving judgment calls or grey areas in medical practice. Without exposure to a range of viewpoints, jurors may miss alternative interpretations of the same evidence, which could be crucial for fair deliberation.
Of course, the defence also has the opportunity to call its own experts, potentially offering counter-arguments to prosecution evidence. But decisions by a defence team not to call certain experts may be based on legal strategy, resource constraints, or concerns about how the testimony will withstand cross-examination. When this happens, it can amplify the weight of the prosecution’s selected experts, potentially skewing the jury’s understanding.
Jurors naturally place a high level of trust in experts, assuming their testimony is both accurate and confined to their area of expertise. So, when experts venture beyond their remit, jurors may accept these statements uncritically, unaware that such testimony may lack the depth required in such complex medical cases. This issue is particularly concerning in circumstantial prosecutions where the case often hinges more on expert interpretation than on direct evidence, increasing the risk of misunderstanding or misjudgment.
Expert overreach
Testimony from experts unfamiliar with the practical pressures of certain clinical settings may lead to distorted interpretations of what a “reasonable” course of action would have been under the circumstances. This can result in unfair judgments, particularly when the nuances of clinical decision-making aren’t fully explored.
Experts also sometimes “overreach” their duties in court, offering opinions that extend beyond their remit. In the case of surgeon David Sellu, who was jailed for gross negligence manslaughter in November 2013 before being freed three years later, having spent 15 months in prison, the court of appeal noted that expert witnesses had repeatedly expressed opinions on whether Sellu’s conduct amounted to gross negligence – an assessment the court said should have been left to the jury.
In that case, the experts directly addressed the “ultimate issue” of whether Sellu’s actions were grossly negligent. But that was for the jury to decide, not the experts, and I believe the trial judge should have intervened. A key change needed by the UK legal system, in my view, is to establish clearer guidelines to ensure experts do not exceed their role – whether in a complex financial fraud or criminal medical trial.
Incidentally, while the judge in the Sellu trial didn’t give the jury correct direction (this was a key finding by the court of appeal that made the conviction unsafe), I don’t think it was entirely the judge’s fault. The law surrounding gross negligence manslaughter, particularly when applied to doctors unintentionally causing a patient’s death, is fraught with ambiguity. The lack of clear guidelines on what constitutes “gross” negligence, coupled with inconsistent application of the law, has sparked widespread concerns about its fairness and appropriateness in the medical context..
Make-up of a jury
Letby’s trial also highlights the limitations of the current jury system in such complex medical cases. The original trial was one of the longest in UK legal history, lasting ten months. The idea of jury trials is you’re tried by your peers, but if you’re a healthcare professional, you’re arguably not really being tried by your peers.
In England, jury service is compulsory and jurors are chosen randomly from the electoral register, but there are some exemptions and deferrals available in specific circumstances, such as serious illness, disability, or full-time caregiving. Additionally, people can apply for deferral if serving would cause significant hardship due to work commitments, including shift work or conflicts with important public duties. This is particularly relevant for professionals who cannot easily take extended time away from their roles.
This adds to the question of whether a jury, composed of 12 lay people with no specialised medical knowledge, can effectively assess intricate, often conflicting medical evidence. As Rebecca Helm highlights in her book How Juries Work (2024), while expert testimony aims to enhance jury understanding of complex evidence, jurors often lack the necessary background knowledge to fully grasp or critically assess it. This can lead to challenges in properly weighing competing expert opinions, especially in adversarial systems where experts present differing views.
In the Letby case, the vast amount of medical evidence presented for each baby likely made it challenging for a lay jury to fully comprehend. Additionally, they may have felt intimidated or hesitant to ask the judge questions, further complicating their ability to critically engage with the evidence.
Of course, it’s important to understand the backdrop for cases like this. I’m very aware of how overstretched, understaffed and under-resourced our hospitals are. And in the Letby case, we know that severely premature babies who are born on the cusp of viability often have a lot of comorbidities. It’s vital that jurors have a clear understanding of such specific context – which is outside the normal experience of most of us – when they come to make their decisions.
The jury’s role is to assess expert evidence independently, yet this can be difficult without clear guidance. In the Sellu trial, the absence of a “route to verdict” document was another significant issue. While not always mandatory, such a document is often used in complex cases to help jurors separate medical facts from legal conclusions.
Without it, the jury was left without clear guidance, increasing the risk of confusion and misapplication of the law. While the court of appeal did not say a route to verdict was strictly required, it strongly indicated that its omission contributed to an unfair trial process.
Expert advisors for juries
In complex criminal cases, like fraud or medical trials, where a large amount of expert evidence is presented, it can be challenging for lay jurors to fully understand and assess the evidence. Elsewhere in Europe – including in Italy, Spain and France – expert judges or advisers are often involved in complex cases to help guide the jury and clarify professional standards relevant to the case.
Given the complexity of cases like Sellu and Letby, it’s worth considering whether jury reform is needed in the UK to ensure fair trials. A potential solution is the inclusion of an expert, such as a medico-legal advisor, who can assist juries in understanding and weighing medical evidence. This would provide clarity on complex issues and help jurors navigate the case more effectively. It would be a practical, cost-effective step that maintains the integrity of jury trials, while addressing challenges specific to complex medical manslaughter and murder cases.
This medico-legal expert would serve solely to assist the jury in understanding complex issues presented during the trial, and would have no role in the deliberation or decision-making process. They are separate to the judge who oversees the trial, and their precise expertise would be dependent on the particular nature of the case.
Of course, everything would have to be confidential in accordance with jury rules – their introduction would simply be to facilitate decision-making and explain complex matters to the jury.
I believe it’s in the interests of both parties, the defendant and the prosecution, that the jury fully understands the evidence presented in court. An impartial medico-legal expert could help ensure this understanding, without influencing the case’s outcome. Their role would be beneficial for clarity, helping both parties ensure the jury comprehends the complex evidence before them.
Further, it may also be worth considering specialist medical juries for certain complex criminal cases, such as the Letby trial, where the evidence is highly technical. The sheer volume of complex medical information presented for each baby in this case suggests that a jury without specialised medical knowledge could struggle to fully grasp the evidence.
Appeals process
One of the Letby appeal grounds involved an application to admit fresh evidence from Lee, challenging the conclusions reached from the 1989 study he co-authored. The court of appeal denied this, noting it did not meet the standards for fresh evidence. Refusals such as this highlights an essential aspect of public debate: the need for transparency about how the court of appeal evaluates new evidence, especially in cases that receive significant media attention.
While it remains to be seen whether the court grants a new appeal for Letby, after the criminal cases review commission reviews the latest evidence provided by Lee’s panel, the Thirlwall inquiry has been sitting since September 2023, looking at events at the Countess of Chester Hospital on the basis that Letby is guilty. It will ultimately make recommendations about different aspects of this wider medical ecosystem, but it’s got no legal authority. Inquiries can make valuable recommendations, but they are advisory in nature and cannot enforce legal changes or compel action.
There are numerous other examples where criminal trials have not led to the systemic-level changes that they highlight are urgently needed, beyond the individual verdict. During the trial of Hadiza Bawa-Garba – a junior doctor found guilty of manslaughter in November 2015 on the grounds of gross negligence manslaughter following the death of a six-year-old boy in her care – it was revealed that the Leicester NHS trust’s serious incident report had identified 93 failures, only six of which were attributable to the doctor herself.
Ultimately, while holding individuals accountable is essential, we must also shift our focus towards long-term, systemic reform. Only by addressing the root causes and strengthening oversight within healthcare institutions can we ensure that tragedies are never repeated. The criminal justice system, though necessary in cases of clear criminal conduct, should be complemented by proactive, preventative measures that foster a culture of safety, accountability and transparency in healthcare.
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Amel Alghrani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mark Middling, Assistant Professor of Accounting, Northumbria University, Newcastle
When billionaire Jim Ratcliffe took a 27.7% stake in Manchester United back in February 2024, he had big plans. He would, he said, take the club “back to the top of English, European and world football, with world-class facilities for our fans”.
A year later, those ambitions remain a distant dream. Results have not been great, and for many fans, the 2024-25 season is looking like one to forget.
But while the club has been far from ruthless on the pitch, it has been fairly ruthless off it. Cost-cutting measures led to the loss of 250 jobs in a bid to save £10 million a year
And now there is fresh tension between the club and its fan base after supporters were warned of a possible rise in ticket prices to prevent the club breaching the Premier League’s “profit and sustainability rules” (PSR).
These rules were put in place in 2011, with the aim of getting clubs to balance their spending against income. This includes an allowance for an “acceptable” loss level set at a cumulative £105 million over a rolling three-year period.
And some well-established clubs have been close to the limits of PSR, with both Nottingham Forest and Everton receiving point deductions in 2024 for spending breaches.
In their defence, football clubs are not immune from cost pressures, such as rising wages and energy bills, leading to price increases. Nor is Manchester United alone in raising ticket prices.
Fulham was criticised for its “completely misguided” ticket pricing strategy in 2023, and in 2016 Liverpool fans staged a stadium walk out against price hikes. Issues such as these have led to the Football Supporters’ Association’s “Stop Exploiting Loyalty” campaign.
But asking fans to help foot the bill to support the club’s PSR position raises a wider question around the “social contract” between a club and its supporters – and the responsibilities on each side.
Our research suggests that Manchester United’s planned price rise would probably break this social contract.
We found that two of a club’s key responsibilities were fair ticket pricing and maintaining financial sustainability (which PSR aim to control). By suggesting ticket price rises to cover the PSR position, Manchester United would be in breach of both those aspects, essentially using one to deal with the other.
There’s nothing illegal about this approach, but it’s a tactic that might backfire. Our research suggests that a relationship between the club and its supporters should involve everybody pulling in the same direction. However, United have already seen some fans turn away from the club, and further ticket price hikes (they already went up to £66 at the end of 2024) may alienate others.
Clarity
Transparency between club and fans is another issue. For it is difficult for fans to know how close the club are to a potential PSR breach – and how much a ticket price increase would alleviate any pressure.
Although Manchester United file detailed accounts, they do not include clear numbers on PSR calculations. These are only provided privately to Premier League officials.
And while it is understandable that internal club finances would be considered commercially sensitive or private, clubs could do more in terms of being transparent with their fan base. This could be through a broad explanation of PSR in their accounts, or in communication with supporters’ groups.
PSR may be a concern for the club, but should the fans have to help foot the bill for financial issues? Again, our social contract model would suggest not. We advocate that clubs are ultimately responsible for their own financial sustainability, and that they should be as transparent as possible, involving fans in decision-making wherever they can.
That said, our research also shows that fans do have a role to play in contributing to a club’s income, supporting its financial sustainability – but not to the extent that the cost to fans is excessive. Yet a recent BBC poll found that most fans were willing to pay “slightly” or “significantly more” for their tickets next season.
This may provide clubs with a sense of justification for ticket price increases, but they need to be aware of tipping points. Our research found that fans should hold clubs to account, with many well practised at this.
So club owners should take heed of the social contract when thinking about putting more financial pressure on their supporters. If, of course, they sympathise with the view that football without the fans “is nothing”.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
US Drug Enforcement Administration images accompanying a warning about the emergence of nitazenes in Washington DC, June 2022USDEA
In the early hours of September 14 2021, three men parked in a quiet car park in the southern English market town of Abingdon-on-Thames. The men, returning from a night out, had pulled over to smoke heroin.
Unknown to them, the drug had been fortified with a nitazene compound called isotonitazene, a highly potent new synthetic opioid. Two of the men, Peter Haslam and Adrian Davies, overdosed and went into cardiac arrest. The third, Michael Parsons, tried to save them and himself by injecting naloxone, an opioid overdose antidote. Despite paramedics also trying to resuscitate Haslam and Davies, both died at the scene.
Their deaths were among at least 27 fatalities linked to nitazenes that year in the UK. Since then, nitazenes – otherwise known as 2-benzylbenzimidazole opioids – have become more prevalent in the UK’s illegal drug supply, leading some experts to warn that they are a major new threat because of their extreme potency.
In June 2023, the UK’s most recent outbreak of deaths linked to synthetic opioids emerged in the West Midlands when drug dealers used nitazenes to fortify low-purity heroin. By August, there were 21 nitazene-related fatalities in Birmingham alone. In some cases, dealers also added xylazine (colloquially known as “tranq”), a non-opioid sedative used by vets.
The increasing availability of these and other synthetic drugs led the UK’s National Crime Agency (NCA) to warn in August 2024 that “there has never been a more dangerous time to take drugs”. Like Haslam and Davies, many heroin users are unaware they might also be consuming nitazenes, which significantly increase the risk of overdose.
Given their potency, only a small amount of nitazene is required to produce a fatal dose. While some studies have concluded that nitazenes are even more potent than the synthetic opioid fentanyl, which causes many thousands of deaths in the US, the NCA judges it a “realistic possibility” that the potency of both substances are “broadly equivalent” – making them roughly 50 times more potent than heroin.
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Officially, more than 400 deaths plus many non-fatal overdoses were linked to nitazenes in the UK between June 2023 and January 2025. But this is likely to be an underestimate because of gaps within forensic and toxicology reporting. These figures come amid record levels of drug-related deaths in England and Wales. In 2023, there were 5,448 deaths related to drug poisoning, an 11% increase on the previous year and the highest total since records began in 1993.
This is of particular concern given that the UK has the largest heroin market in Europe, comprising around 300,000 users in England alone. While nitazene-related deaths are still relatively low (although by no means insignificant) compared with those from heroin and other opioids, these new synthetic opioids are cheap and easy to buy, and offer dealers multiple advantages over traditional plant-based drugs.
Unlike opium, nitazenes and other synthetic opioids can be produced anywhere in the world using precursor chemicals that are often uncontrolled and widely available. Producer countries including China and India have not yet banned all nitazene compounds, meaning they are sold legally – mostly online. Chemical manufacturing companies in these countries can synthesise nitazenes at scale using a comparatively easy three or four-step process.
Opioid use death rates around the world:
Estimated deaths from opioid use disorders per 100,000 people in 2021. Our World In Data, CC BY
For the past 15 years, I have researched and advised on the international narcotics industry, especially the Afghan drug trade, as an academic, UK Home Office official and consultant. I’ve observed many shifts within global drug markets, and I believe the increasing availability of synthetic drugs in the UK and Europe may represent a new chapter in illicit drug use here – with the emergence of nitazenes only adding to these concerns.
A brief history of synthetic opioids
New synthetic opioids (NSOs) are one of the fastest-growing groups of new psychoactive substances around the world. The EU Drugs Agency (EUDA) currently monitors 81 NSOs – the fourth-largest group of drugs under observation.
NSOs largely fall into two broad groups: fentanyl and its analogues, and non-fentanyl-structured compounds – these include nitazenes, among many other substances.
Many of these “new” synthetic opioids have, in fact, existed for decades. Nitazenes were first synthesised in the 1950s by the Swiss pharmaceutical company, Ciba Aktiengesellschaft, as pain-relieving analgesics, although they were never approved for medical use.
Prior to 2019, there had only been limited reports of nitazenes in the illegal drug supply – including a “brownish looking powder” found in Italy in 1966; the discovery of a lab in Germany in 1987; several nitazene-related deaths in Moscow in 1998; and a US chemist illegally producing the drug for personal use in 2003. But since nitazenes re-emerged at the end of the last decade, over 20 variants have been discovered.
Paul Janssen, the Belgian chemist who first made fentanyl. Johnson & Johnson
The most common NSO in the illegal drug market, fentanyl, was first synthesised by Belgian chemist Paul Janssen in 1960. Fentanyl, which is roughly 100 times more potent than morphine, was approved in the US in 1968 for pharmaceutical use as an analgesic.
Over the next four decades, however, illegally produced fentanyl resulted in three relatively small outbreaks of deaths in the US. A fourth, larger fentanyl outbreak in Chicago, Detroit and Philadelphia resulted in about 1,000 deaths between 2005 and 2007.
The current US fentanyl crisis started in 2013, expanding to affect much of the country. Between 2014 and 2019, Chinese companies were the main manufacturers of finished fentanyl substances in the US – to combat this, both the Obama and Trump administrations lobbied Beijing to curtail the fentanyl industry.
The Chinese government responded by controlling specific fentanyl analogues. However, every time an analogue was banned, chemists there would slightly adjust the formula to produce a new compound that mirrored the banned substance.
China finally banned all fentanyl-related substances in May 2019, prompting two significant changes in the drug’s supply: a slowdown in the development of new fentanyl analogues, and a reduction in their direct sale to the US from China. Instead, Chinese companies increasingly sent fentanyl precursors to Mexican drug cartels who would synthesise fentanyl (or counterfeit medication) in clandestine labs, before smuggling it across the US border. Consequently, Mexico is now the primary source of fentanyl in the US.
But these supply changes led to another shift in the global drugs arena, as China’s chemical and pharmaceutical businesses – keen to develop new markets – adjusted their focus to producing uncontrolled synthetic substances, including nitazenes. At the same time, they expanded their geographical focus from North America to include Europe and the UK.
The nitazene supply chain
Producing nitazenes is a relatively low-cost exercise. They are largely manufactured in laboratories – both legal and illegal – in China, before being smuggled to the UK and Europe via fast parcel and post networks.
Nitazenes’ high potency means only small quantities are required, making them easier to transport and harder for border officials to detect. Some Chinese vendors have reportedly been offering to hide nitazenes in legitimate goods such as dog food and catering supplies, to circumvent custom controls. All of this decreases the risk to sellers, and lessens the price of doing business.
In March 2024, two China-based sellers operating on the dark web were selling a kilo of nitazene for between €10,000 and €17,000 (£12,000-£20,000). During roughly the same period, a kilo of heroin at the wholesale level in the UK was selling for between £23,000 and £26,000. Once bought, nitazenes are largely used to fortify low-purity heroin, although the drug can also be made into pills.
Video by The Guardian.
Nitazenes are not limited to the dark web. They are widely and openly advertised on the internet, social media and music streaming platforms. In February 2024, one China-based e-commerce site displayed 85 advertisements for nitazenes. Such sites also sell a range of other synthetic drugs, including fentanyl analogues and precursors, xylazines, cannabinoids and methamphetamine.
This means drug dealers in the UK and across the world no longer need to have established connections to underworld figures to source illegal drugs. With a click of a mouse, they can have them delivered to their home address. In this sense, the internet has democratised the drug trade by widening access beyond “traditional” criminals.
In the UK, while the supply of nitazenes is currently assessed as “low”, a number of smaller-scale organised crime groups are importing them to fortify low-purity heroin, before largely dealing it at the “county lines” level. This involves organised crime groups moving drugs – primarily heroin and crack cocaine – across towns, cities and county borders within the UK, using mobile phones or another form of “deal line” to sell to customers.
In November 2023, Leon Brown from West Bromwich was imprisoned for seven years for dealing drugs containing nitazenes – a verdict described as “a great result in our ongoing efforts to tackle county lines drug dealing” by detective sergeant Luke Papps of the South Worcestershire county lines team.
A few larger UK criminal networks have also been involved in nitazene distribution. In October 2023, the police and Border Force conducted raids across north London, arresting 11 people. They dismantled a drug processing site and seized 150,000 tablets containing nitazene – the UK’s largest ever seizure of synthetic opioids – as well as a pill-pressing machine, a firearm, more than £60,000 in cash and £8,000 in cryptocurrency. The police suspected the group had been selling the tablets on the dark web.
Anecdotal reports suggest there have been mixed reactions to the introduction of nitazenes into the illegal drug supply. Richard, a recovering heroin user from Bristol, told Vice magazine that, given their potency, some “people are scared of [nitazenes]” while others are “actively seeking” them.
As has been the case with fentanyl in the US, users build up tolerance and therefore seek stronger doses. Manny, a heroin user from Bristol, told Vice: “I smoked [heroin cut with nitazenes] and it felt like the first time I’d ever taken drugs.”
Video by Vice.
UK-based criminals also use the dark web to export nitazenes abroad. In October 2023, the Australian Border Force identified 22 nitazene discoveries in packages shipped to the country via mail cargo from the UK. British criminals have also trafficked counterfeit medicines containing nitazenes to Ireland and Norway.
Use of nitazenes is now being detected all over the world. Within Europe, Ireland experienced several nitazene outbreaks in 2023-24 while in Estonia, nitazenes now account for a large share of overdose deaths – a trend also seen (to a lesser extent) in Latvia. Preliminary data suggests at least 150 deaths were linked to nitazenes in Europe in 2023.
Nitazenes have also been discovered in fake pain medication such as benzodiazepines, oxycodone and diazepam, which widens the number of people at risk to include those with no opioid tolerance. The death in July 2023 of Alex Harpum, a 23-year-old British student who was preparing for a career as an opera singer, was a stark reminder of the danger of buying fake medicine online that may have been contaminated with nitazenes.
The nitazene ‘boom’ and the global heroin trade
For decades, Afghanistan was the world’s largest opium producer and the source of most of Europe’s heroin. Then in April 2022, the ruling Taliban announced a comprehensive prohibition on the use, trade, transport, production, import and export of all drugs. As a result, poppy cultivation has fallen to historically low levels for a second consecutive year.
While this has not, as yet, translated into a shortage of heroin on European streets, including in the UK and Germany, some indicators suggest a slowdown in heroin supplies to the UK. In the year March 2023-24, the quantity of heroin seized in the UK fell by 54%, from 950kg to 441kg. This is the lowest quantity of heroin seized since 1989, when about 350kg was intercepted.
The NCA assesses that the Taliban ban has created market “uncertainty”. The wholesale price of heroin has increased from roughly £16,000 per kilo prior to the COVID-19 pandemic to about £26,000, while anecdotal reports suggest average heroin purity for users dropped to under 30% (often to 10-20%) in 2024, compared with around 35% in 2023 and 45% in 2022.
Video by UN Story.
Even without the Taliban’s ban, heroin is not easy to produce and supply. Cultivating opium poppy is labour-intensive, taking five or six months. The static nature of opium fields means they are visible and susceptible to eradication; poppy crops can also be negatively affected by blight or drought.
Converting opium into heroin base is also a labour-intensive process that can involve (depending on the production method) at least 17 steps. Acetic anhydride, the main chemical used to convert morphine into heroin, is relatively expensive compared with synthetic precursors. Moreover, heroin is a bulky product, which means it is harder to move in large volumes.
While the relationship between events in opiate-producer countries and the introduction of synthetic opioids to consumer markets should not be overstated, this new type of drug offers economic advantages to criminals whose “sole motivation is greed”.
For decades, Turkish, Kurdish and Pakistani criminal networks have been responsible for importing heroin into the UK. Once in the UK, both Turkish and British groups largely control its wholesale supply, with some participation of Albanian gangs.
To date, there is little evidence to suggest these groups have transitioned to supplying NSOs, including nitazenes. The shifting dynamics in the global drug supply chain, however, could upend traditional markets and the gangs who profit from them.
America’s synthetic drug crisis
The synthetic opioid fentanyl has devastated the US, having been linked to about 75,000 deaths in 2023 alone. It is the primary cause of death for Americans aged 18-49. Canada, too, has experienced a wave of deaths: between January 2016 and June 2024, there were 49,105 apparent opioid deaths there, with fentanyl implicated in a large proportion.
More than 4,300 reports of nitazenes have reached the US National Forensic Laboratory Information System since 2019. They are typically used to fortify fentanyl and other opioids, which can produce a fatal concoction.
Efforts to stem the flow of NSOs, including nitazenes, from China to the US and elsewhere will prove challenging. And even if China does implement stricter controls, other countries could step in to fill the void. According to the Commission on Combating Synthetic Opioid Trafficking:
The overall sizes of these industries, limited oversight efforts and political incentives contribute to an atmosphere of impunity among firms and individuals associated with those industries.
While US and Chinese counter-narcotics cooperation ended in 2022 amid increasing geopolitical tensions, the following November’s summit in Woodside, California, between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping saw them agree to recommence collaboration.
As a result, China recently closed several chemical companies that were shipping fentanyl precursors and nitazenes to the US. These vendors used encrypted platforms and cryptocurrency to conduct the deals, and mislabelled the consignments to try to ensure the substances evaded border controls. China has also outlawed more chemicals and substances, including several nitazene variants.
But President Trump’s imposition of tariffs on imports from China – which sit alongside proposed taxes on imports from Canada and Mexico, in part for supposedly not doing enough to curb the trafficking of fentanyl and its precursors to the US – threatens this counter-narcotics cooperation.
While nitazenes are not yet widely available in the US, their presence within some fentanyl batches is complicating the US opioid crisis – and according to some experts, has the potential to further increase the already shocking number of synthetic opioid-related deaths.
The UK response to nitazenes
Successive UK governments have made tackling NSOs a high priority. Shortly after the most recent nitazene-related deaths were discovered in the UK in summer 2023, the NCA launched Project Housebuilder to lead and coordinate the law enforcement and public health response.
This was soon followed by the establishment of a government-wide Synthetic Opioids Taskforce “to improve…understanding, preparedness and mitigation against this evolving threat”. Chris Philp, then the UK’s combatting drugs minister, stated that “synthetic opioids are at the top of [this government’s] list because of the harm they cause”.
The taskforce has taken a range of measures, such as controlling more NSOs as class A drugs, conducting more intelligence operations at UK borders, widening access to naloxone, and enhancing the UK’s real-time, multi-source drug surveillance system. The government also worked with the US and Canada to learn from their experiences.
Recently, the current UK government banned a further six synthetic opioids and introduced a generic definition of nitazenes as class A drugs. And the UK’s current government, unlike its Conservative predecessor, has also indicated its willingness to consider evidence from the UK’s first drug consumption facility, which recently opened in Glasgow.
Other policy measures worthy of consideration include expanding drug checking services whereby drug users submit drugs to a lab to test what is in them, then are provided with information about the sample. These services offer vital information to the public and authorities about current drug trends.
While there is high uncertainty about what is going to happen next in the UK regarding illicit drug trends, the evolution of the US drug landscape over generations provides some important lessons.
Lessons from the US
The US fentanyl crisis shows drug markets can change quickly with long-lasting consequences. Most heroin on US streets contains – or has been replaced by – fentanyl. According to DEA seizure data, US heroin seizures declined by nearly 70% between 2019 and 2023, whereas fentanyl seizures have increased by 451%.
However, illegal drug markets evolve in different ways and at different paces. In May 1989, Douglas Hogg, a UK Home Office minister, travelled to the US and the Bahamas on a fact-finding mission about crack cocaine, a drug that was predicted to spread from the US to the UK. Upon his return, Hogg noted:
The ethnic, social and economic characters of many of our big cities are very similar to those in the US. If they have a crack problem, why should not we? … The use of crack in Great Britain is likely to develop very substantially over the next few years.
But this “crack invasion”, as some called it, did not materialise in the UK to the extent it had in the US – and the same was true about a predicted wave of methamphetamine use in the UK, which remains low compared with the US.
It is also unlikely the UK and Europe will experience a synthetic opioid crisis on the same scale as the US. The first wave of the US crisis was driven by extensive overprescription of opioids for pain relief. This increased the number of people addicted to opioids, some of whom later turned to heroin, before transitioning to fentanyl. In contrast, large-scale opioid prescriptions have not been a major issue in the UK or Europe, although there is some diversion of legal fentanyl into the illegal drug market in Europe.
Video by The Brookings Institution.
According to Alex Stevens, professor of criminology at the University of Sheffield, another factor differentiating the US and Europe is the provision of drug treatment and harm reduction programmes. Opioid users in Europe, and to a lesser extent in the UK, are much more likely to be in medication-assisted treatment than their US counterparts, thus reducing the number of people at risk. These interventions are reinforced by different socioeconomic factors in much of Europe, such as lower economic inequality, stronger social protections, and better healthcare systems.
None of this, though, means the nitazene threat in the UK and Europe should be underestimated, nor that use and supply of these drugs (and other NSOs) will not increase from its current relatively low base. As the NCA recently warned:
While a zero-tolerance approach from law enforcement, plus advice to users on the heightened dangers, may contain or slow the current uptake, we must prepare for these substances to become widely available, both unadvertised in fortified mixes and in response to user demand as a more potent high.
The future of new synthetic opioids
Predicting the future of NSO use and trafficking is a challenging task. Projections for Europe range from existing opiate stockpiles ensuring that heroin consumer markets remain serviced (assuming the Taliban ban is short-lived), to a heroin shortage which results in more drug dealers turning to NSOs to plug the shortfall, which in turn could lead to lasting changes in European drug markets (as happened in a few countries following the Taliban’s first opium ban in 2000-01).
In such a scenario, it is possible that Turkish criminal networks may exploit their links with Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel to source NSOs. Mexican criminal gangs also operate in Europe, which may increase the likelihood of them trying to open a new NSO market on the continent.
There is also evidence that some Italian criminal organisations have entered the NSO marketplace. In November 2023, Italian authorities announced the seizure of 100,000 doses of synthetic drugs, including fentanyl, as part of operation Painkiller, a joint Italian-American initiative.
Given the many advantages for criminal groups of NSOs, it seems likely they are here to stay. A key question is whether nitazenes (or other NSOs) will supplant traditional heroin as the opioid of choice, as they have done in the US, or remain at relatively low levels in Europe, co-existing with or mixed into the heroin supply.
In December 2023, Paul Griffiths, the EUDA’s scientific director, told Vice: “We’re not seeing much new initiation of heroin use in Europe. So in five to ten years … as heroin users get older and more vulnerable, we’re not going to have much of an opiate problem left.”
But he warned that if heroin use does dry up: “You might then see opioids appearing in other forms and preparations, such as pills, that could potentially become popular among younger age groups who currently do not appear attracted to injecting heroin.”
While previous NSO outbreaks in the UK were relatively short-lived and limited in scale, the most recent nitazene outbreak, which started in summer of 2023, has been more sustained, covered more parts of the UK, and involved more fatalities. The broader trend in Europe also suggests the prevalence and variations of NSOs are increasing at a faster pace than in previous years.
Notwithstanding, nitazene use and supply in the UK currently remains relatively low. In fact, the rate of nitazene-linked deaths – at least those officially reported – decreased between spring 2024 and the end of the year.
In the short term, then, it seems unlikely there will be a nitazene “explosion”. Rather, criminal groups will probably try to increasingly embed nitazenes into the UK drug market at a similar pace to the last 18 months.
However, this situation could change rapidly in future, especially if larger criminal networks involved in heroin importation switch to smuggling NSOs, and there is a genuine shortage of Afghan heroin. This problem would be compounded if drug users start seeking nitazenes, thus creating demand for them.
Either way, the UK government, along with its European partners, should continue to reinforce the whole drug system, to prepare for the worst-case scenario.
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Philip A. Berry does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Donald Trump has hit the 30-day pause button on imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but is proceeding with slapping 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, and tariffs on the EU are still on his agenda.
Trump has declared that “tariff” is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”. Yet as the president weighs up the sweeping consequences of his tariff fixation, he may want to throw out the dictionary and pick up a history book.
The magnitude and scale of the proposed tariffs hark back to the US Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act enacted in 1930.
For example, Nobel Laureate economist Paul Krugman told Bloomberg that “we’re really talking about tariffs on a scale that we … have not seen,” adding that “we’re talking about a reversal of really 90 years of US policy”.
The Smoot-Hawley tariffs were initially intended to provide support to the deeply indebted US agricultural sector at the end of the 1920s, and protect them from foreign competition – all familiar themes to the anti-free-trade rhetoric peddled by Trumpists today.
The advent of the Great Depression had generated widespread, albeit not universal, demands for protection from imports, and Smoot-Hawley increased already significant tariffs on overseas goods. Members of Congress were eager to provide protection, trading votes in exchange for support for their constituents’ industries.
Although at the time more than 1,000 economists implored President Herbert Hoover to veto Smoot-Hawley, the bill was signed into law. The resulting tariff act led to taxes averaging nearly 40% on 20,000 or so different types of imported goods.
The history of trade tariffs in the US.
The culmination led to a dramatic decline in US trade with other countries, particularly among those that retaliated, and is widely acknowledge as severely worsening the Great Depression. According to one estimate, the sum of US imports plummeted by nearly half.
What’s more, the impacts were felt globally. Protectionist policies are believed to have accounted for about half of the 25% decline in world trade, and indirectly helped create economic factors that led to the second world war.
The blowback against Capitol Hill was immense as well: the optics of vote trading over the tariff act resulted in Congress delegating control over trade policy to the president just four years later because the behaviour was regarded as so reckless.
All of this came against the backdrop of diplomatic American isolationism in the 1930s, which were not unlike many of Trump’s current efforts to retreat from – or even attack – multilateral institutions.
Despite President Woodrow Wilson winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 1919 for his work initiating the League of Nations (a forerunner of the United Nations), for example, the US never became a member. The term “America first” was also used widely in this period to refer to a focus on domestic policy and high tariffs.
Fast forward to present day
Trump has said that his tariffs will cause “some pain” but are “worth the price that must be paid.” Based on recent estimates from the non-partisan Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump’s tariffs could drive up costs for the average US household more than US$1,200 (£963) per year.
Whether US voters will still stand behind Trump when actual prices begin to rise is still to be determined.
However, many Republicans on Capitol Hill have rushed to Trump’s defence. Congresswoman Claudia Tenney of New York told Fox News that she’s glad the US is “projecting strength for once on the world stage”. Senator Eric Schmitt of Missouri insisted that tariffs were “not a surprise,” emphasising that Trump had relentlessly campaigned on “improving our standing in the world.”
Perhaps the sharpest Republican rebuke came from Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who labelled the tariffs simply a “bad idea”.
Public opinion data show that tariffs are hotly contested, with partisanship shaping both general views toward tariffs and views on specific national targets.
According to a January 2025 Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, 52% of Americans overall approve of placing new tariffs on China, with 74% of Republicans in favour, but just 34% of Democrats.
Support is more modest for imposing tariffs on America’s neighbours. Only 40% of voters think tariffs on Canada and Mexico are a good idea, including 59% of Republicans and 24% of Democrats.
Tariffs rank low on a list of national priorities. A mere 3% of Americans think tariffs on Canada and Mexico should be a top priority for Trump in his first 100 days, while just 11% rank tariffs on China as a top priority.
Prospect of a broader trade war
What seems clear is that Trump’s proposed tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China could be just the opening salvos in a broader tit-for-tat that may extend to Europe, and beyond.
At home, the political challenge for Trump is to keep intact what increasingly looks like a fragile coalition – balancing the interests of hardline Maga supporters who reject free trade and tech titans who see tariffs as disrupting vital supply chains, especially to Asia.
After Trump’s election, former adviser and populist nationalist Steve Bannon warned that America would no longer be “abused” by “unbalanced trade deals.” “Yes, tariffs are coming,” he said. “You will have to pay to have access to the US market. It is no longer free, the free market is over.”
Meanwhile, Silicon Valley has been mostly silent on the tariffs. While tech moguls are doubtlessly trying to curry favour for tariff exemptions or the reduction of tariffs altogether, it’s possible that they have been assured that the tariffs are about leverage and will be gone soon enough.
Regardless, Trump is showing that tariffs are a crucial part of his “America first” foreign policy, a kind of belligerent unilateralism that treats allies and adversaries alike as pieces to be moved around a chessboard.
Under Trump, the “art of the deal” means throwing America’s weight around as the world’s economic superpower, and waiting for the leaders of other nations to fold. Whether American voters will endure the economic costs necessary for his plans could determine his resolve.
Trump may think that tariff is a beautiful word now. But if even a glimmer of the 1930s repeats itself, its economic shadow could soon look grim.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
An international panel of medical experts have thrust Lucy Letby back into the spotlight. At a press conference convened by Letby’s legal team, the experts cast doubt over the former nurse’s conviction. Letby was given 15 whole-life sentences for murdering seven babies and attempting to murder seven more.
Speaking at the press conference in London, retired neonatologist Dr Shoo Lee told the assembled reporters: “In all cases death or injury were due to natural causes or just bad medical care.”
Why should we take Dr Lee’s word for it? Well, in part, because he is the author of a key paper on air embolisms, one of the methods that Letby was accused of using to kill babies, which formed a key part of the prosecution’s evidence at the trial.
He also claims that the paper’s findings were misinterpreted at the trial and that a newly updated version of the article would help exonerate Letby rather than convict her.
The Letby conviction has always attracted critical attention because there were no witnesses who could confirm they saw her attacking any of the babies she was convicted of murdering. Nor did anyone see her perform actions that could have constituted the attempted murders of seven others.
Consequently, the prosecution used statistics alongside the medical evidence the expert panel has now cast doubt upon. So how solid is that statistical evidence?
A key piece of statistical evidence is a chart which showed that Lucy Letby was on duty every time one of the crimes of which she was accused occurred, but that none of the other nursing staff were.
On the face of it, it seems quite damning. But when you think about it, it’s unsurprising that Letby’s column is the only one full of crosses. Any of the events at which she was not present she would not have been charged with and consequently wouldn’t appear on the chart.
This is an example of what is known in statistics as the Texas sharpshooter fallacy.
The fallacy is named for a story about a Texan cowboy who likes to head out to his barn after a few drinks for target practice. Invariably, the barn wall gets peppered with random bullet holes during the inebriated exercise, and purely by chance some of these holes are clustered.
One morning the savvy “sharpshooter” gets out his paint cans and daubs a target around this cluster of holes to give the impression of accuracy to anyone who didn’t see the process by which they were made and to draw attention away from the other more dispersed bullet holes.
The sharpshooter fallacy occurs when a conclusion is drawn based only on data consistent with a given hypothesis, ignoring data that doesn’t support the proposed conclusion.
Imagine, for example, you made a chart similar to the one used to convict Letby, this time including only those deaths at which a different member of the nursing staff was present. It’s entirely possible – for example, if they were present for deaths at which Letby was not – that their name would be above the only column full of crosses and not Letby’s.
Indeed, it later transpired that the table did not include six other deaths that occurred during the same period and with which Letby was not charged. The jury was not told about these other deaths.
As Jane Hutton, a professor of medical statistics at the University of Warwick argues: “If you want to find out what went wrong, you need to consider all deaths, not just a subset of them.”
The probability of so many deaths on a neonatal unit in such a short period should be quite low. At first glance, this might seem to make the alternative explanation of murder seem more likely. But this is a classic statistical error.
This mistake is so common in courtrooms that it is known as the prosecutor’s fallacy. The argument starts by showing that, if the suspect is innocent, seeing a particular piece of evidence is extremely unlikely.
For Letby, this is the assertion that if she was innocent of killing these babies, the probability of them dying due to other causes is extremely low. The prosecutor then deduces, incorrectly, that an alternative explanation – the suspect’s guilt – is extremely likely.
The argument neglects to take into account any other possible alternative explanations, in which the suspect is innocent, such as the death of these babies due to inadequate care. It also neglects the possibility that the explanation that the prosecution is proposing, in which the suspect is guilty, may be just as uncommon as the alternative explanations, if not more so.
By just presenting the low probability of these seven babies dying naturally, the inference that an untrained jury is invited to draw runs something along these lines: “The deaths of these babies from natural causes is extremely rare, so the odds that the deaths are the result of murder is correspondingly extremely high.”
However, it must also be taken into account, when weighing up the evidence, that multiple infant murders are also extremely uncommon. What really matters is the relative likelihoods of the different explanations. Weighing these very unusual events against each other is not an easy thing to do.
Criminal cases review
Other statistical issues with the case also deserve more attention: the high number of deaths at the Countess of Chester, even excluding the babies that Letby has been convicted of murdering. Or the possibility of false positive medical identifications of murder, for example.
Whether Letby’s team’s appeal to the Criminal Cases Review Commission will be successful or not remains to be seen. The statistical issues over the case, when taken alongside the doubts about the medical evidence, mean that there is certainly a possibility.
Throughout all this, it’s important to remember the families affected by the events at the Countess of Chester Hospital. Whatever the ultimate truth of the matter, this ongoing case will undoubtedly make dealing with their grief more difficult.
Christian Yates does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments
Scientists comment on the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) report on Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage (CCUS) technologies.
Prof Hannah Chalmers, Personal Chair of Sustainable Energy Systems, Institute for Energy Systems, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh, said:
“CCUS technologies can play a unique role in tackling carbon dioxide emissions. They can be used at large industrial sites to ensure that most of the carbon dioxide produced by activities like iron and steel production is not emitted to the atmosphere. Instead, the carbon dioxide is permanently stored in geological formations (rocks). In the UK, CCUS projects are developing plans to store carbon dioxide in layers of rock that are deep underneath the sea.
“There is also ongoing work to develop and deploy cost-effective approaches to remove carbon dioxide directly from the air. This provides an important option to respond to the widely reported increases in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere that are causing significant concern.
“There is significant evidence that including CCUS in a mix of technologies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions will be the most cost-effective way to address climate change. Several large-scale projects have been operating in other countries for many years. Experience from these projects is being used to ensure that the CCUS projects that are being developed in the UK are designed to be reliable and cost-effective.”
Dr Stuart Gilfillan, Reader in Geochemistry, University of Edinburgh, said:
What is CCUS technology, how does it work, does it have limitations?
“CCUS stands for Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage, which is a developing technology which reduces the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) released into the atmosphere. It works by capturing CO2 at the point source, transporting it and then burying it for safe storage in rocks over a kilometre below the ground surface. Like any technology, it has pros and cons, and costs more than simply releasing the CO2 directly to the atmosphere, which is currently free. CCUS is the only currently available technology that can directly reduce CO2 emissions from sources like power plants and industrial processes. Given that global temperature records are now being broken on an almost daily basis and yesterday’s announcement of the hottest January on record, it is essential tool in the urgent fight against runaway climate change.
What is the existing evidence around the efficacy of CCUS?
“CO2 capture technology has proven successful in capturing up to 90-95% of CO2 emissions from point of sources from power stations and industrial facilities. Successful examples include the Boundary Dam power station in Saskatchewan, Canada, where a large-scale CCUS unit has been operational since 2014, capturing about 1 million tonnes of CO2 per year.
“The long-term storage of CO2 is proven by natural CO2 reservoirs around the world and engineered projects like Sleipner in the North Sea, which have been injecting CO2 beneath the seabed since 1996 without significant issues. Research over the past two decades has developed monitoring technologies that can detect and mitigate potential leakage and to ensure that CO2 remains securely buried in rocks deep underground.
What more evidence may be needed to be confident in its applications?
“No more evidence is required, as exemplified by the UK’s Climate Change Committee (CCC), which is an independent body established under the Climate Change Act who advise the government on emissions targets and report to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The CCC is clear that CCUS is a critical technology for the decarbonisation of the UK economy, particularly in sectors that are hard to decarbonize directly, such as heavy industry (steel, cement, chemicals) and power generation.
“CCUS is not only as a standalone technology but is an essential part of a broader strategy to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. It compliments energy efficiency, renewable energy deployment, and electrification. CCUS is a clear driver for regional economic development, particularly in regions with suitable geological storage sites and industrial bases, such as the East Coast of Scotland, the Humber region, and North East England, areas that have been ‘left behind’ in recent times.”
Dr Tim Dixon, IEA Greenhouse Gas, Director and General Manager, said:
“Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a necessary technology for the UK and other countries to achieve net-zero, and we need all low-carbon energy technologies. The science case for the role of CCS is provided by the UK’s Climate Change Committee, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) and cannot be disputed if climate change is to be taken seriously. The key aspect of CCS is the secure long-term retention of CO2 in deep geological formations, and we have decades of experience in this from around the world. With over 40 large scale projects in operation injecting millions of tonnes every year and many pilot-scale projects, this has allowed us to test the science, the monitoring and the practicalities of geological storage of CO2. Hence CO2 geological storage is a proven technology and the regulations to enable and to ensure that it is safe and secure are based upon this sound science and experience. ”
Professor Paul Fennell FIchemE, Professor of Clean Energy, Imperial College London, said:
“The idea that Carbon Capture and Storage is an unproven technology is simply untrue. There are projects ongoing around the world, and millions of tonnes of CO2 have been safely stored over the last couple of decades. This has not happened in the U.K. because of our sclerotic inability to develop public infrastructure, not because the technology is unproven.”
Dr Greg Mutch, Researcher in Carbon Capture and Storage, Newcastle University, said:
“Carbon capture and storage is a technology that prevents carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere, by capturing it and storing it underground in ‘empty’ oil & gas reservoirs or saline aquifers. According to the world’s foremost experts on the subject, gathered to contribute the International Panel on Climate Change, carbon capture and storage processes are necessary to achieve climate change mitigation goals at lowest cost. Without scalable CCS technologies by the end of the century, climate change mitigation will cost between 29 and 297% (mean value 138%) more.[1] Moreover, CCS is predicted to provide tens of thousands of jobs in the UK, add several billion pounds in terms of gross value added per year by 2050,[2] and enable other important technologies (hydrogen production etc) that will come with further jobs and economic value.”
[1] IPCC, 2018: Global Warming of 1.5 °C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, ed. V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H.-O. Portner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Pean, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield, Cambridge University Press, 2018.
[2] Energy Innovation Needs Assessment Sub-theme report: Carbon capture, utilisation, and storage, Vivid Economics, Carbon Trust, E4tech, Imperial College London, Frazer-Nash Consultancy, Energy Systems Catapult. Commissioned by the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, 2019.
Professor Peter Styring, Director of the UK Centre for Carbon Dioxide Utilization, Professor of Chemical Engineering & Chemistry, University of Sheffield, said:
What is CCUS technology, how does it work, does it have limitations?
“CCUS is carbon capture and storage. This has been primarily focused on CCS as the main driver. It aims to capture carbon dioxide from emitters such as power stations and industries. The current technology temperature swing absorption (TSA) using a chemical reaction with an aqueous amine solvent to capture the CO2 from the mixed waste gas and then to release it in a purified form by increased temperature chemical desorption and then further drying and purification to get a gas that can be in theory transported to a site where the gas can be stored underground. It works but at a high energy cost and the production of amine decomposition products that need to be removed and more amine added. It costs a lot!
“Limitations are the energy and financial costs, permitting regulations on solvent disclosure and the large physical footprint. Full system lifecycle analysis is required but this is not always reported.”
What is the existing evidence around the efficacy of CCUS?
“This is not proven using current technologies. The problem is that the current government funded projects use old technologies to achieve CCS and what is actually needed is a step change to new, lower cost more efficient processes such as solid based pressure swing adsorption (PSA). The whole system tends to be simpler and the energy costs and land use is significantly reduced.”
What more evidence may be needed to be confident in its applications?
“Full evaluation of new technologies and rapid acceleration from proof of concept to capture at scale. The Innovate UK funded Flue2Chem project is a good example of how this is being addressed using mid-TRL technologies. The UK also needs to move away from a single minded storage approach to adding value through the use of CO2 in the production of chemicals that would otherwise be sourced from virgin fossil carbon. SUSTAIN project is making synthetic fuels from captured CO2 and Flue2Chem is making FMCG components, including surfactants and precursors from the CO2.”
Dr Stuart Jenkins, Net Zero Fossil Fuel Fellow, University of Oxford, said:
“The Public Accounts Committee are wrong to have labelled CCUS as ‘unproven’, there are many commercial scale projects around the world, but they are right to question the current model for funding it. We need to make sure the CCUS industry becomes self-sustaining, without the need for major taxpayer funding. One option — asking fossil fuel suppliers to contribute to these costs via a carbon storage mandate — is a fair and responsible approach going forward.
In a recent report we published working with researchers at the University of Oxford and Carbon Balance Initiative [1] we looked at the use of Carbon Storage Mandates, which place an obligation on fossil fuel producers to capture and store a rising fraction of the CO2 they produce, to support the UK’s CCUS industry.
Carbon storage mandates, in tandem with carbon pricing and other mechanisms, could deliver subsidy-free CCUS to the UK and provide investment certainty for companies.”
Dr Stuart Jenkins Our report was funded by the Carbon Capture and Storage Association, and consulted regulators, fossil fuel companies, capture and storage entities, UK Government, and academics on models for CCUS sector support packages.
Professor Paul Fennell: No conflicts other than being involved in CCs research.
Dr Tim Dixon: “Tim is a Director of IEA Environmental Projects Ltd (UK), a Non-Executive Director on the Board for The International CCS Knowledge Centre (Canada). He is also proud to be an Honorary Senior Research Fellow at the Bureau of Economic Geology, University of Texas in Austin, and an Honorary Lecturer at the School of Geosciences at University of Edinburgh. He was an original Board Member of the UK CCS Research Centre. Previously he worked in CCS, emissions trading, clean energy technologies and related areas for AEA Technology (ETSU), for the UK Government‘s Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and for the Global CCS Institute. He was the EU’s Lead Negotiator for getting CCS in the CDM in UNFCCC in 2011, and a UK negotiator for getting CCS in the London Convention 2004-7, in OSPAR 2006-7, in the EU Emission Trading Scheme 2004-8, and inputting to the EU CCS Directive 2007-8. He gives talks on climate and CCS to schools and public organisations and supported the start of Oxford Climate Society at the University of Oxford. He is a Fellow of the UK Energy Institute, and member of the UK Institute of Physics and the UK Environmental Law Association.”
Dr Stuart Gilfillan “I have received funding from TotalEnergies in the past, for research related to CO2 origins in the subsurface and reservoir connectivity and Equinor on CO2 dissolution in natural CO2 reservoirs. I currently receive funding from the Natural Environment Research Council and Carbfix on CO2 mineralisation.”
Prof Hannah Chalmers “I work collaboratively with industrial partners who are developing CCUS projects in the UK (e.g. as a member of the Advisory Board for the Industrial Decarbonisation Research and Innovation Centre). I currently receive no funding from industry, but have received funding from industrial partners who are actively developing CCUS projects in the UK in the past (e.g. SSE plc).”
Professor Peter Styring: Peter is Professor of Chemical Engineering and Chemistry at the University of Sheffield (an investigator on Flue2Chem and SUSTAIN) and a Co-founder and Director of CCU International.
For all other experts, no response to our request for DOIs was received.
Premier Scott Moe will travel to Washington D.C. this week for meetings with U.S. elected representatives, industry organizations and to participate in the premier’s Council of the Federation (COF) joint-mission to Washington.
Prior to the COF mission, Premier Moe will meet with U.S. elected representatives and businesses to emphasize the strong trade relationship between Canada and the U.S, and the role Saskatchewan plays in supplying the continent with energy and food security.
“It’s important in the current economic environment that we engage with our counterparts in the United States to emphasize the shared benefit of trade between our two countries and turn the conversation toward building on those strengths rather than jeopardizing them with tariffs,” said Moe.
The U.S. is Saskatchewan’s largest and most important trading partner. About $40 billion worth of imports and exports cross the border every year. The current tariff-free border allows businesses to add value to products and economies, whether flowing from north to south or vice versa.
Premier Moe’s meetings will focus on maintaining strong Canada-U.S. relations by addressing shared issues such as the economy, energy, supply chains and the impacts of the Trump Administration’s proposed tariffs.
Premier Moe will also express Saskatchewan’s support for strong measures to secure the Canada-U.S. border.
“Strengthening border security and preventing the flow of illicit drugs like Fentanyl is a concern that has been identified by the U.S. and one that I share,” Moe added. “We are already taking action as a province through our Border Security Plan to ensure we have more officers and law enforcement presence at the Saskatchewan-U.S. border.”
The Council of the Federation’s joint-mission to Washington will allow all thirteen premiers to present a united voice on the important benefits that free-trade brings to Canada and the U.S. and the concern over the negative impact of tariffs to consumers and businesses on both sides of the border.
The COF program will take place on Feb 12 and will include meetings with U.S. elected representatives, business leaders and the Canada American Business Council.
Following the COF mission Premier Moe will travel to Mexico to engage with business and elected officials to advance relationships with this key trading partner.
Over the course of the next few weeks, Premier Moe and multiple cabinet Ministers will be travelling within Canada and beyond to advocate for Saskatchewan’s interests. These engagement efforts will focus on promoting the province as a global supplier of food and energy security, while strengthening relationships with our key international trading partners.
CALGARY, Alberta, Feb. 07, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Canoe Financial LP (“Canoe Financial”) is recognized with three 2024 FundGrade A+® Awards for outstanding performance.
Canoe Financial 2024 FundGrade A+ Award winning funds:
FundGrade calculation date 12/31/2024.
The FundGrade A+® rating recognizes the best performing funds that deliver the most consistent risk-adjusted returns. It is a yearly award that honours the “best of the best” among Canadian investment funds that have maintained a high FundGrade rating throughout a calendar year.
“These awards are a testament to the strength of our investment philosophy and the dedication of our team. At Canoe Financial, we’re committed to helping Canadians build lasting wealth through disciplined, active management and a focus on delivering consistent, long-term performance,” said Darcy Hulston, President and Chief Executive Officer, Canoe Financial.
About Canoe Financial Canoe Financial is one of Canada’s fastest growing independent mutual fund companies managing $20 billion in assets across a diversified range of award-winning investment solutions. Founded in 2008, Canoe Financial is an employee-owned investment management firm focused on building financial wealth for Canadians. Canoe Financial has a significant presence across Canada, including offices in Calgary, Toronto and Montreal.
About FundGrade A+ Awards FundGrade A+® is used with permission from Fundata Canada Inc., all rights reserved. The annual FundGrade A+® Awards are presented by Fundata Canada Inc. to recognize the “best of the best” among Canadian investment funds. The FundGrade A+® calculation is supplemental to the monthly FundGrade ratings and is calculated at the end of each calendar year. The FundGrade rating system evaluates funds based on their risk-adjusted performance, measured by Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, and Information Ratio. The score for each ratio is calculated individually, covering all time periods from 2 to 10 years. The scores are then weighted equally in calculating a monthly FundGrade. The top 10% of funds earn an A Grade; the next 20% of funds earn a B Grade; the next 40% of funds earn a C Grade; the next 20% of funds receive a D Grade; and the lowest 10% of funds receive an E Grade. To be eligible, a fund must have received a FundGrade rating every month in the previous year. The FundGrade A+® uses a GPA-style calculation, where each monthly FundGrade from “A” to “E” receives a score from 4 to 0, respectively. A fund’s average score for the year determines its GPA. Any fund with a GPA of 3.5 or greater is awarded a FundGrade A+® Award. For more information, see www.FundGradeAwards.com. Although Fundata makes every effort to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data contained herein, the accuracy is not guaranteed by Fundata.
Canoe Equity Portfolio Class Series, Canadian Focused Equity category out of a total of 70 funds: 20.20% (1 year), 9.46% (3 years), 14.48% (5 years), 10.16% (10 years) and 8.02% (since inception-February 2011); Canoe Asset Allocation Portfolio Class, Tactical Balanced category out of a total of 56 funds: 14.65% (1 year), 6.35% (3 years), 10.46% (5 years), 7.36% (10 years) and 5.85% (since inception-February 2011); Canoe North American Monthly Income Portfolio Class, Global Neutral Balanced category out of a total of 224 funds: 13.40% (1 year), 6.22% (3 years), 8.25% (5 years), 6.47% (10 years) and 7.25% (since inception- December 2012).
Further information Investor Relations Canoe Financial LP 1–877–434–2796 info@canoefinancial.com
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.
NAPERVILLE, Ill., Feb. 07, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Track Group, Inc. (OTCQB: TRCK), a global leader in offender tracking and monitoring services, today announced financial results for its fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2024 (“Q1 FY25”). In Q1 FY25, the Company posted (i) total revenue of $8.7 Million (“M”), a decrease of approximately 3.3% over total revenue of $9.0M for the quarter ended December 31, 2023 (“Q1 FY24”); (ii) Q1 FY25 operating income of $0.1M compared to Q1 FY24 operating loss of ($0.2M); and (iii) net loss attributable to common shareholders of ($2.0M) in Q1 FY25 compared to net income attributable to common shareholders of $0.1M in Q1 FY24.
“The quarter ending December 31, 2024 showed increases in gross profit, operating income and Adjusted EBITDA. This progress reflects the increased use of our products and services in legacy programs and continued expansion through newly awarded contracts domestically and abroad. With a strong pipeline and a commitment to delivering value, we are poised for continued success in fiscal year 2025,” said Derek Cassell, Track Group’s CEO.
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Total Q1 FY25 revenue of $8.7M decreased approximately 3.3% compared to Q1 FY24 revenue of $9.0M. The decrease in revenue was driven principally by a decrease in people assigned to monitoring for clients in Michigan and Virginia, and our recently sold Chilean subsidiary. This decrease was partially offset by revenue increases for clients in Illinois, Puerto Rico and the Bahamas who experienced increases in the number of people assigned to monitoring.
Gross profit of $4.4M in Q1 FY25 increased approximately 5.2% compared to Q1 FY24 gross profit of $4.2M due to a decrease in monitoring center costs, partially offset by a decrease in revenue.
Operating income in Q1 FY25 of $0.1M increased compared to the operating loss of ($0.2M) in Q1 FY24. The increase in net income in Q1 FY25 is primarily due to a decrease in cost of revenue and a decrease in operating expense.
Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 FY25 of $1.2M, increased compared to $1.1M for Q1 FY24 due to an increase in operating income and gross profit. Adjusted EBITDA in Q1 FY25 as a percentage of revenue increased to 14.4%, compared to 11.8% for Q1 FY24 for the same reasons.
Unrestricted cash balance of $3.7M for Q1 FY25 increased compared to $3.6M for Q1 FY24. The change in cash position was principally due to the sale of our Chilean subsidiary.
Net loss attributable to shareholders in FY24 was ($2,010,849) compared to net income of $461 in FY23, a change principally attributable to lower revenue and a foreign currency exchange rate loss.
Business Outlook
Growth in gross profit and operating income in Q1 FY25 reinforces our confidence in the strategic reinvestment in technology and the implementation of new programs initiated in late FY23. These endeavors position us well for sustained growth throughout FY25. As a result, the Company’s preliminary outlook for FY25 is as follows:
Actual
Outlook
FY 2023
FY 2024
FY 2025
Revenue:
$34.5
M
$36.9
M
$35M – $36M
Adjusted EBITDA Margin:
11.1
%
14.6
%
14% – 15%
About Track Group, Inc. Track Group designs, manufactures, and markets location tracking devices; as well as develops and sells a variety of related software, services, and accessories, networking solutions, and monitoring applications. The Company’s products and services are designed to empower professionals in security, law enforcement, corrections, and rehabilitation organizations worldwide with single-sourced offender management solutions that integrate reliable intervention technologies to support re-socialization and monitoring initiatives.
The Company currently trades under the ticker symbol “TRCK” on the OTCQB exchange. For more information, visit www.trackgrp.com.
Forward-Looking Statements Any statements contained in this document that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements as defined in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect,” “forecast,” “intend,” “may,” “plan,” “project,” “predict,” “if”, “should” and “will” and similar expressions as they relate to Track Group, Inc., and subsidiaries (“Track Group”) are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These statements are only predictions and reflect Track Group’s current beliefs and expectations with respect to future events and are based on assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties and subject to change at any time. Track Group may from time-to-time update these publicly announced projections, but it is not obligated to do so. Any projections of future results of operations should not be construed in any manner as a guarantee that such results will in fact occur. These projections are subject to change and could differ materially from final reported results. For a discussion of such risks and uncertainties, see “Risk Factors” in Track Group’s annual report on Form 10-K, its quarterly report on Form 10-Q, and its other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. New risks emerge from time to time. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures This release includes financial measures defined as “non-GAAP financial measures” by the Securities and Exchange Commission including non-GAAP EBITDA. These measures may be different from non-GAAP financial measures used by other companies. The presentation of this financial information, which is not prepared under any comprehensive set of accounting rules or principles, is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information prepared and presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures are based on the financial figures for the respective period.
Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA excludes items included but not limited to interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, impairment charges, gains and losses, currency effects, one-time charges or benefits that are not indicative of operations, charges to consolidate, integrate or consider recently acquired businesses, costs of closing facilities, stock based or other non-cash compensation or other stated cash and non-cash charges (the “Adjustments”).
The Company believes the non-GAAP measures provide useful information to both management and investors when factoring in the Adjustments. Specific disclosure regarding the Company’s financial results, including management’s analysis of results from operations and financial condition, are contained in the Company’s annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2023, and other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Investors are encouraged to carefully read and consider such disclosure and analysis contained in the Company’s Form 10-K and other reports, including the risk factors contained in such Form 10-K.
TRACK GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
(Unaudited)
December 31,
September 30,
2024
2024
Assets
Current assets:
Cash
$
3,740,043
$
3,574,215
Accounts receivable, net of allowance for credit losses of $525,141 and $432,904 respectively
5,319,041
4,428,535
Prepaid expense and deposits
420,680
638,293
Inventory, net of reserves of $99,041 and $82,848, respectively
811,992
582,481
Assets held for sale
–
969,481
Total current assets
10,291,756
10,193,005
Property and equipment, net of accumulated depreciation of $293,419 and $430,003, respectively
351,353
317,206
Monitoring equipment, net of accumulated depreciation of $5,145,204 and $5,982,972, respectively
4,550,033
4,598,864
Intangible assets, net of accumulated amortization of $19,954,086 and $19,699,966, respectively
13,415,776
13,959,571
Goodwill
7,913,369
7,941,190
Other assets, net
1,238,608
660,170
Total assets
$
37,760,895
$
37,670,006
Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity (Deficit)
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable
$
3,336,084
$
3,082,467
Accrued liabilities
2,542,932
2,639,318
Liabilities held for sale
–
732,028
Total current liabilities
5,879,016
6,453,813
Long-term debt, net of current portion
42,659,634
42,639,197
Long-term liabilities
679,823
186,407
Total liabilities
49,218,473
49,279,417
Stockholders’ equity (deficit):
Common stock, $0.0001 par value: 30,000,000 shares authorized; 11,863,758 and 11,863,758 shares outstanding, respectively
Series A Convertible Preferred stock, $0.0001 par value: 1,200,000 shares authorized; 0 shares outstanding
–
–
Paid in capital
302,600,546
302,600,546
Accumulated deficit
(315,274,178
)
(312,691,811
)
Accumulated other comprehensive loss
1,214,868
(1,519,332
)
Total equity (deficit)
(11,457,578
)
(11,609,411
)
Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity (deficit)
$
37,760,895
$
37,670,006
TRACK GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME/(LOSS) (Unaudited)
Three Months Ended December 31,
2024
2023
Revenue:
Monitoring and other related services
$
8,441,307
$
8,674,485
Product sales and other
227,021
292,487
Total revenue
8,668,328
8,966,972
Cost of revenue:
Monitoring, products and other related services
3,508,762
3,973,989
Depreciation and amortization included in cost of revenue
735,224
789,463
Total cost of revenue
4,243,986
4,763,452
Gross profit
4,424,342
4,203,520
Operating expense:
General & administrative
2,431,118
2,757,887
Selling & marketing
901,189
706,531
Research & development
669,391
682,463
Depreciation & amortization
227,553
239,760
Loss on sale of subsidiary
66,483
–
Total operating expense
4,295,734
4,386,641
Operating income (loss)
128,608
(183,121
)
Other income (expense):
Interest income
2,839
48,162
Interest expense
(571,798
)
(486,084
)
Currency exchange rate gain (loss)
(1,499,262
)
538,945
Total other income (expense)
(2,068,221
)
101,023
Net income (loss) before income taxes
(1,939,613
)
(82,098
)
Income tax expense (benefit)
71,236
(82,559
)
Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders
(2,010,849
)
461
Release of cumulative translation adjustment for sale of subsidiary
1,390,913
–
Equity adjustment for sale of subsidiary
571,518
–
Foreign currency translation adjustments
771,769
(106,702
)
Comprehensive income (loss)
$
723,351
$
(106,241
)
Net income (loss) per share – basic:
Net income (loss) per common share
$
(0.17
)
$
0.00
Weighted average common shares outstanding
11,863,758
11,863,758
Net income (loss) per share – diluted:
Net income (loss) per common share
$
(0.17
)
$
0.00
Weighted average common shares outstanding
11,863,758
11,863,758
TRACK GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES NON-GAAP ADJUSTED EBITDA DECEMBER 31 (UNAUDITED) (amounts in thousands, except share and per share data)
Three Months Ended December 31,
2024
2023
Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA
Net income (loss) attributable to common shareholders
$
(2,011
)
$
–
Interest expense, net
569
438
Depreciation and amortization
963
1,029
Income taxes (1)
71
(83
)
Board compensation and stock-based compensation
75
53
Foreign exchange expense (gain)
1,499
(539
)
Loss on sale of subsidiary
66
–
Other charges (2)
18
164
Total Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA
$
1,250
$
1,062
Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA, percent of revenue
14.4
%
11.8
%
Non-GAAP earnings per share – basic:
Weighted average common shares outstanding
11,863,758
11,863,758
Non-GAAP earnings per share
$
0.11
$
0.09
Non-GAAP earnings per share – diluted:
Weighted average common shares outstanding
11,863,758
11,863,758
Non-GAAP earnings per share
$
0.11
$
0.09
(1
)
Currently, the Company has significant U.S. tax loss carryforwards that may be used to offset future taxable income, subject to IRS limitations. However, the Company is still subject to certain state, commonwealth, and other foreign based taxes.
(2
)
Other charges are expenses related to the board of directors, severance, and other Chile monitoring center costs for our recently sold subsidiary.
James Berg Chief Financial Officer jim.berg@trackgrp.com
NORFOLK, Va. — On February 5, 2025, a multi-agency exercise simulating an active shooter scenario and improvised explosive device (IED) threat took place in Naval Support Activity (NSA) Hampton Roads Iowa Estates. The drill was designed to test the readiness and coordination of various local and federal agencies, enhancing their ability to respond to complex, high-stress situations. The exercise was a collaborative effort involving Navy Police, Norfolk Police, Norfolk Fire, Navy Region Mid-Atlantic Fire, Naval Criminal Investigative Service (NCIS), and Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD).
“Exercises like this are critical in ensuring our personnel are prepared for real-world threats. The collaboration between multiple agencies strengthens our ability to respond effectively and keep our communities safe,” said Captain Mathew Olson, NSA Hampton Roads Commanding Officer.
The exercise began with a simulated active shooter incident at Iowa Estates. The scenario unfolded when a suspect entered the area and began firing shots. Navy Police quickly responded, pursuing the suspect into the residential area. During the pursuit, officers encountered a suspected IED, adding an additional layer of urgency and complexity to the situation. The discovery prompted an immediate shift in tactics, requiring coordination with EOD specialists to assess and neutralize the threat while law enforcement continued their response.
Following a brief chase, the suspect barricaded himself in his vehicle, prompting a tactical response from the involved agencies. In response to the evolving situation, NCIS took charge of negotiations with the suspect in an attempt to resolve the standoff peacefully. The standoff lasted just under two hours, allowing participants to refine and assess their protocols for crisis management, communication, and the coordination of multiple teams.
The primary aim of the exercise was to provide participating agencies with an opportunity to experience “real-world” training, enabling them to sharpen their response times, improve tactical strategies, and ensure the safety of both law enforcement personnel and the public.
“The more we train together, the better prepared we are. These scenarios push us to refine our strategies and ensure that when a real crisis occurs, we’re ready to respond with precision and professionalism,” said Lieutenant Shawn Watkins, NSA Hampton Roads Security Officer.
The scenarios emphasized the importance of clear communication between the agencies involved, allowing for effective coordination. Fire departments were also instrumental, responding to potential hazards and ensuring the safety of all responders, while EOD teams worked swiftly to evaluate and neutralize the IED threat, preventing further escalation.
This training allowed personnel to practice both offensive and defensive tactics, developing their ability to work together under high pressure. The simulation also tested the agencies’ capacity to maintain situational awareness, handle negotiations, and defuse a dangerous situation in a timely manner.
The exercise underscored the importance of a unified approach when responding to critical incidents. With a combination of law enforcement, fire, medical, and military personnel, the agencies worked seamlessly to bring the exercise to a successful conclusion. The integration of different units—from police negotiators to fire response teams—demonstrated the value of multi-agency collaboration in safeguarding public safety during complex emergencies.
“At the end of the day, everything we do is about protecting lives. This exercise allowed us to test and improve our skills so that if the worst happens, we can respond swiftly and effectively,” said Captain Olson.
Moving forward, the lessons learned during this event will serve as a foundation for future training exercises and real-world responses, ensuring that all participants remain prepared to protect and serve with the highest level of professionalism and efficiency.
The MAKO series is designed to provide Reserve Sailors hands-on experience within the operational level of war (OLW) environment including a maritime operations center (MOC) scenario.
Rear Adm. Kenneth Blackmon, Vice Commander of USFF, describes this MAKO Challenge as aligning to, “the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)’s ‘Project 33 target’ to ‘Fight from the MOC’ by affording Reserve Component Sailors new to MOC units basic reps and sets to be better prepared to add value on day one.”
Fighting from the MOC is one of the seven targets that make up CNO Adm. Lisa Franchetti’s Project 33, a set of targets that will allow the U.S. Navy to make strategic gains in the fastest time with the resources we influence. In the Navigation Plan for America’s Warfighting Navy, the CNO states that, “through ready MOCs, the Navy will expand information and decision advantage to retain the initiative in crisis or conflict.”
The document adds that, “by 2027, all fleet headquarters, starting in the Pacific Fleet, will have ready MOCs certified and proficient in command and control, information, intelligence, fires, movement and maneuver, protection, and sustainment functions as assessed by our MOC Training Teams.”
“This investment in our Reserve Component MOC training is critical for CNO’s Fight From the MOC priority and is informed by the active component’s experiences on the watch floors around the globe,” according to Blackmon.
With limited time and high operational expectations, the Navy Reserve prioritizes training to increase warfighting readiness. This is especially important given the many geopolitical challenges the U.S. currently faces. Accordingly, evolutions like MAKO are designed to give Reserve Sailors in the fleet the most realistic training they can receive without standing on the active watch floor. MAKO also prepares participants for when they are called on orders for future exercises or to fill in for active duty gaps.
Reserve Sailors who attended MAKO make a direct impact on the readiness of the Navy through realistic training, and the MOC and other OLW lines of effort are priorities of Navy leadership.
Senior leaders visited the watch floor and spoke with Reserve Sailors and mentors in order to better understand the training taking place and witness the active and Reserve integration firsthand.
