Source: International Monetary Fund
January 31, 2025
Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with Samoa on January 16, 2025 and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.[2]
Samoa’s economic recovery has been remarkable. Following a 15 percent contraction over 3 years during the pandemic, GDP growth rebounded to 9.2 percent in FY2023 and accelerated further to 9.4 percent in FY2024, driven by a quick recovery in the tourism sector. Inflation has declined from double digit levels in FY2023 to 2.9 percent year-on-year in October 2024. The fiscal surplus increased further to 10.1 percent of GDP in FY2024, supported by robust grant flows, buoyant tax revenues, and restrained expenditures, including low capital spending amid capacity constraints. The current account moved to a surplus in FY2024 which, combined with continued strong grant inflows, supported a significant increase in foreign reserves.
GDP growth is projected to remain robust at 5.5 percent in FY2025, driven by an anticipated pickup in public investment and the preparations and hosting of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM). Inflation is expected to rise moderately amid the ongoing economic recovery. While the near-term outlook remains favorable, growth is expected to slow to the historical average of around 2 percent in the medium term. Furthermore, risks to the outlook are skewed to the downside amid heightened global uncertainties and potential pressures on inflation, including from significant excess liquidity in the banking system.
Executive Board Assessment
In concluding the 2024 Article IV consultation with Samoa, Executive Directors endorsed the staff’s appraisal, as follows:
Samoa’s near-term economic outlook remains favorable. GDP growth in FY2025 is projected to remain well above pre-pandemic levels, supported by the preparations and hosting of CHOGM and the envisaged expansionary fiscal stance. Inflation is expected to rise moderately as the economic recovery continues. GDP growth is expected to converge towards the historical average of about 2 percent over the medium-term. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, including from a slowdown in key trading partners amid heightened global uncertainty, as well as upside risks to inflation from external and domestic sources.
Samoa’s recent policy mix has helped build significant economic buffers but has also presented challenges. Large fiscal surpluses have improved debt dynamics, resulting in an upgrade to Samoa’s debt distress rating from high to moderate in the IMF-WB DSA, but low capital spending is undermining the economy’s productive capacity. The tight fiscal stance, coupled with high grants and remittance inflows and the exchange rate peg, has resulted in the emergence of a large current account surplus with the external sector assessed to be substantially stronger than the level implied by fundamentals and desired policy settings. The resulting large build up in foreign reserves has also created excess liquidity in the banking system.
An expansionary fiscal stance will support the economy, while fiscal reforms can improve the effectiveness of policy and mitigate risks. The focus in the near term should be overcoming capacity constraints to execute much needed public investment, including climate-related projects.
Maintaining PFM controls over the DDP, including through the election cycle, remains a priority. Improving fiscal data and implementing further PFM reforms can also help improve policy formulation, implementation, and credibility. Fully reversing the pandemic-era utility tariff cuts, while implementing any support for low-income households transparently through the budget, can help address lingering weakness in some SOEs while protecting the vulnerable.
Monetary policy normalization should continue, with an aim to guide interest rates higher. The exchange rate peg remains the appropriate nominal anchor. However, to guard against domestic inflation risks, monetary policy should aim to reduce excess liquidity to reasonable levels and push real short-term rates to positive territory.
Further strengthening financial supervision and regulation, including for PFIs, should be a priority. Financial sector risks have declined relative to the pandemic but require continued monitoring. Priorities for the banking system include operationalizing the emergency liquidity assistance framework and enhancing prudential standards. Upgrading governance and prudential regulations for PFIs is also needed to contain potential risks. Establishing an online credit registry will help advance financial inclusion.
A multi-pronged approach can help mitigate CBR pressures. Strengthening the AML/CFT legal framework and implementing effective risk-based supervision will help prepare Samoa for its APG mutual evaluation in 2027. Ensuring the timely rollout of the e-KYC facility and the National Digital ID will help improve customer due diligence. Given low ML/TF risks from remittance payments, effort should be made to streamline regulatory and supervisory requirements on both sides of main remittance corridors.
Overcoming significant structural challenges which impede the medium-term growth potential will require concerted reform efforts. Key priorities include attracting foreign investment, reducing trade facilitation costs, and mitigating the impact of the pickup in the seasonal workers program, including by enhancing human capital and raising labor force participation rates.
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Table 1. Samoa: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators 1/ |
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|
Proj. |
|||||||||
|
2020/21 |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
2026/27 |
2027/28 |
2028/29 |
|
|
Output |
(12-month percent change) |
||||||||
|
Real GDP |
-7.0 |
-5.4 |
9.2 |
9.4 |
5.5 |
2.8 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
|
Nominal GDP |
-7.5 |
0.0 |
18.0 |
14.9 |
8.7 |
6.0 |
5.2 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
|
Consumer price |
4.1 |
10.8 |
10.7 |
0.8 |
3.5 |
2.6 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
|
Consumer price |
-3.0 |
8.7 |
12.0 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
|
Central Government Finances |
(In percent of GDP) |
||||||||
|
Revenue |
36.5 |
38.5 |
34.1 |
36.0 |
33.0 |
32.0 |
31.5 |
31.5 |
31.4 |
|
Of which: Grants |
6.8 |
9.4 |
4.5 |
6.2 |
4.2 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
|
Expenditure |
34.7 |
33.1 |
31.0 |
25.9 |
33.1 |
33.5 |
33.4 |
33.5 |
33.6 |
|
Of which: Expense |
31.3 |
32.2 |
27.5 |
25.7 |
27.9 |
28.3 |
28.2 |
28.3 |
28.2 |
|
Of which: Net acquisition |
3.4 |
0.9 |
3.5 |
0.3 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.4 |
|
Overall balance |
1.7 |
5.4 |
3.0 |
10.1 |
-0.1 |
-1.5 |
-1.9 |
-2.0 |
-2.2 |
|
Gross debt outstanding |
46.3 |
43.7 |
33.3 |
27.7 |
22.5 |
19.3 |
20.4 |
21.5 |
22.6 |
|
Money |
(12-month percent change) |
||||||||
|
Broad |
8.1 |
2.2 |
16.3 |
7.7 |
7.5 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
|
Private |
1.5 |
0.2 |
-2.6 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
|
Private |
-0.9 |
4.9 |
2.9 |
8.2 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
|
Private |
2.0 |
0.6 |
-0.1 |
3.7 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
|
Private Sector Credit |
(In percent of GDP) |
||||||||
|
Commercial banks |
53.1 |
53.2 |
43.9 |
39.5 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
|
Total financial system |
94.0 |
94.6 |
80.1 |
72.3 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
|
Bank Financial Soundness |
|||||||||
|
Regulatory capital to risk- |
28.1 |
28.8 |
33.2 |
29.0 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
|
Non-performing loans to |
3.7 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
|
Balance of Payments |
(In percent of GDP) |
||||||||
|
Current account balance |
-14.5 |
-11.3 |
-3.3 |
4.0 |
-0.5 |
-1.2 |
-1.3 |
-1.6 |
-2.0 |
|
Merchandise exports, |
4.1 |
3.8 |
4.6 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
|
Merchandise imports, f.o.b. |
37.8 |
41.4 |
47.1 |
41.3 |
43.0 |
42.9 |
42.7 |
42.5 |
42.5 |
|
Services |
-3.9 |
-2.9 |
10.8 |
17.6 |
16.4 |
16.0 |
16.0 |
16.0 |
16.0 |
|
Of which: Tourism receipts |
0.0 |
0.0 |
16.4 |
21.0 |
21.9 |
21.5 |
21.5 |
21.5 |
21.5 |
|
Income |
-1.7 |
-2.6 |
-1.3 |
-2.3 |
-2.7 |
-2.8 |
-2.8 |
-2.8 |
-2.8 |
|
Current transfers |
24.8 |
31.7 |
29.6 |
26.4 |
25.4 |
25.1 |
24.6 |
24.1 |
23.7 |
|
External Reserves and Debt |
|||||||||
|
Gross |
288.5 |
303.2 |
401.7 |
494.3 |
503.8 |
506.2 |
523.9 |
542.9 |
557.5 |
|
(in months |
7.9 |
6.4 |
8.3 |
9.0 |
8.8 |
8.5 |
8.5 |
8.3 |
8.2 |
|
External |
46.1 |
43.6 |
33.3 |
25.9 |
20.9 |
17.8 |
19.0 |
20.3 |
21.5 |
|
Exchange Rates |
|||||||||
|
Market rate (tala/U.S. dollar, |
2.57 |
2.61 |
2.73 |
2.76 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
|
Real |
-0.5 |
6.4 |
9.2 |
-0.6 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
|
(12-month percent change) 3/ |
|||||||||
|
Memorandum items: |
|||||||||
|
Nominal GDP |
2,169 |
2,170 |
2,562 |
2,943 |
3,200 |
3,391 |
3,568 |
3,748 |
3,938 |
|
GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) |
4,136 |
4,032 |
4,498 |
5,070 |
5,474 |
5,728 |
5,945 |
6,160 |
6,440 |
|
Sources: Data provided by the Samoan authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. |
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1/ Fiscal years July-June. |
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2/ Incorporates August 2021 SDR allocation. |
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3/ Increase signifies appreciation. |
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[1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.
[2] The Executive Board takes decisions under its lapse-of-time procedure when the Board agrees that a proposal can be considered without convening formal discussions.
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