Blog

Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Good morning, and thank you for the warm welcome.  A special thank you to Nodal for inviting me to join your annual Trader Conference again this year.  It is truly an honor to address all of you this morning.  I am more than two years into my role as a commissioner at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and I still feel humbled by the opportunity to stand on a stage with a microphone to address accomplished professionals like all of you.  My children, on the other hand, are surprised that anyone would want to hear me talk about anything, and they are even more shocked that I would need a microphone to be heard as they are convinced that the only volume I ever use when speaking is shouting.

The topic for my speech on today’s agenda is:  New Perspectives on Energy Trading and Power Markets, and I plan to focus on the road ahead for these markets.  But before discussing the road ahead, I will start with a story from my childhood about when I learned to drive.  I say this is a story from my childhood because in South Dakota, children as young as fourteen years old are allowed to obtain a driver’s license.  As much as I miss my home state, when I look at my fourteen-year-old son and think about him driving, I see the wisdom in Virginia’s approach.

At the ripe old age of twelve, my dad decided it was time for me to learn how to drive.  As a tall child, I could reach the gas and brake pedals, which was apparently the minimum criteria for beginning driving lessons on the farm.  To be honest, I was scared to death of driving.  But my parents said I should learn because if there was ever an emergency, and I was the only one home, I may need to drive for help.  That logic just made me scared of driving and being left alone on the farm.

My experience as a parent teaching two teenagers to drive involved multiple practice sessions in empty parking lots before slowly graduating to quiet side roads before paying another adult to do the really scary stuff, such as driving on highways and making left turns across oncoming traffic.  I suspect that sounds familiar to many in this room as well. 

But that suburban approach is not how I learned to drive.  My lesson – notice I said lesson, not lessons—was a little more hands-off.  On the day I learned to drive, my dad had me jump in the passenger seat of his 1977 blue Chevy pick-up truck to take a ride with him.  Oddly, my older brother jumped in another farm truck and followed close behind.

After driving a few miles away from our house, my dad drove the truck into the middle of a freshly plowed field.  Dad threw the truck into park, jumped out, and told me to slide over to the driver’s seat.  He then shut the door, leaned into the window, and told me to drive around the field until I was comfortable enough to drive myself home.  At that point, I realized why my brother had followed us in another vehicle—it was my dad’s getaway car.

Honestly, I panicked.  I screamed, pleaded, and begged.  But my dad was confident in his approach.  And he left me with this advice:  always keep your eyes on the road.  But don’t just look at the road immediately in front of the vehicle; be sure to watch the road ahead so you know where you are going—and so that you do not smash into a deer.

I’m sharing this story with you today for two reasons.  First, to offer some entertainment.

Second, I found the advice my dad gave me that day relevant to the topic for my speech today.  Specifically, I want to share with you some thoughts and observations on energy markets, the road ahead for these markets, and potential down-the-road effects on the derivatives markets that are regulated by the CFTC.

Being a derivatives regulator can feel a little like being that driver who is looking down the road to see what is ahead.  Our markets are forward looking, offering a view into points off in the distance so drivers are prepared for the path ahead.  But, just like a careful driver needs to see what is right in front of the vehicle as much as what is on the road ahead, careful regulation requires us to also keep our eyes on current market conditions, in addition to ensuring the reliability and safety of the futures markets, which reflect the road ahead.  The CFTC is always surveilling markets, spotting trends, and monitoring for risk that could impact the futures markets.

Now, here is where this speech will diverge from my story of learning to drive.  While I was left to teach myself how to drive and had no one willing to share their expertise with me, our work at the CFTC in following markets occurs with the benefit of a variety of internal resources (such as the Market Intelligence Branch of the Division of Market Oversight and the Office of the Chief Economist) as well as external resources (such as our advisory committees).

At the CFTC, we have five advisory committees, each of which is sponsored by a commissioner.  These committees are comprised of subject matter experts representing a variety of viewpoints, such as private sector stakeholders, non-profit groups, academia, and other governmental entities.  As many of you know, especially those who are members, I sponsor the Energy and Environmental Markets Advisory Committee.

Growing up on a farm in South Dakota, I always understood that the price of energy had a major impact on whether it was a good year or a bad year for the farm.  Even at a young age, I could tell you the exact cost-per-gallon of diesel because either my dad was grumbling about it as he left for the field, or it was the topic of discussion at the local café in town where the older farmers convened for their morning coffee.

The price of diesel determined the cost of running planters, tractors, combines, and trucks.  The cost of fertilizers and pesticides are also directly linked to fossil fuel input prices, and spreading those fertilizers and pesticides required hiring a spray pilot whose services were priced based on the cost of the aviation fuel.

Even after our crops were harvested, energy costs were critical.  Energy prices influenced the cost of storage at the grain elevators and transportation; barges and ships run on bunker fuel and trains need diesel.  Everything in the farm economy depends on the price of energy.  You might have perfect temperatures, exactly the right amount of rain at exactly the right time, and high yields but still see your net profit shrink due to high energy prices.

As the only Commissioner with a background in production agriculture, sponsoring the Commission’s Agriculture Advisory Committee may have seemed like the obvious choice.  But I saw the EEMAC as an opportunity to focus on sectors critical to the agricultural economy and to study those energy markets to understand their impact on the markets we regulate.  The goal is for the energy futures complex to serve end-users who need to hedge those costs and to mitigate the frequent price volatility experienced by the underlying cash markets.

As the EEMAC has held meetings and participated in discussions around energy markets, we have heard over and over that the United States has critical gaps in its energy and power infrastructure.  As those gaps widen, so do risks to the stability of these markets that become more sensitive and less resilient to forces beyond US control.  Instability and volatility in spot energy markets and prices have a direct impact on the derivative products we regulate.

Energy infrastructure’s impact on energy prices is something that cannot be ignored, and this reality has become even more apparent in the last decade.  Of course, it makes sense that energy transmission and delivery directly impact the cost to the end consumer.  However, truly understanding how energy infrastructure market fundamentals influence energy spot and derivatives prices requires hearing directly from hardworking domestic energy producers and seeing the infrastructure up close.

With that in mind, the EEMAC has held a series of meetings on the road, and members of the advisory committee have joined me in getting outside of Washington to see our energy production and infrastructure and to talk directly with the experts who manage these facilities.

In our first meeting, we visited Oklahoma and focused on more traditional energy markets such as crude oil and natural gas.[1]  We visited Cushing, Oklahoma, where the WTI Crude Oil contract settles to see the pipelines and storage facilities as well as to talk with those in charge of storing, blending, and moving the oil to locations throughout the US.  During the EEMAC meeting, a witness from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission described an anomaly in the price of natural gas in New England.[2]  Despite having one of the largest concentrations of natural gas in the Marcellus Shale just over two hundred miles away, a lack of pipeline capacity makes it impossible to fully supply New England with gas from the Marcellus Shale.[3]  This situation means that New England relies on liquified natural gas (“LNG”) supplies from tanker ships.  As a result, the price New England end users pay is based on the Henry Hub price for exported LNG, rather than the domestic production price.  This circumstance creates an unusual situation where the spot price that a natural gas-fired power plant in Massachusetts pays for its fuel is more dependent on Europe’s desire for natural gas and a global market thousands of miles away than on the price and availability of natural gas produced two states away in Pennsylvania.

To examine power markets and electrification, we held meetings in Roy, Utah; Nashville, Tennessee; and Golden, Colorado.[4]  In the course of those meetings, we had the opportunity to tour a large Ford EV production facility in Spring Hill, Tennessee, the Bingham Canyon Copper Mine in Utah, and a startup company looking to reuse mine tailings to produce critical metals and minerals in Golden, Colorado.

Here in the United States, we have some of the largest deposits of the metals necessary for power generation, transmission, and use, but large gaps in our infrastructure and policies render these advantages almost meaningless.  In Golden, Colorado, we learned that despite a startup company’s cutting-edge technology that can turn mine waste into critical metals and minerals, China’s dominance in rare earth markets means that they can manipulate prices at will and squeeze out competition and force any US production into bankruptcy.

Southwest of Salt Lake City, Utah, we toured the Bingham Canyon Copper Mine.  The Bingham County Mine is the largest man-made excavation in the world.[5]  It’s also the world’s deepest open pit mine, and it has produced more copper than any other mine in the world.[6]  As you can probably guess, the US has abundant supplies of copper; however, because of a lack of domestic smelting capacity, much of the copper mined in the US must be shipped overseas, often to China, to be processed and refined.  In fact, since 2000, China has been responsible for 75% of the global smelter capacity growth.[7]

Finally, in Spring Hill, Tennessee, we learned that car companies are increasingly concerned  about logistical challenges reducing their  ability to provide cost-competitive electric vehicles.  This is not an idle concern.  Just four weeks ago, Rivian disclosed that it will be forced to reduce production and decrease its sales target in 2024 by almost 20% because of difficulties sourcing a component used in its electric motor.[8]  And last week, to secure a steady supply of lithium, GM announced an almost $1 billion investment in the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada.[9]

For years, the problem for domestic energy policy was how to mine, drill, and import enough raw materials to satisfy America’s growing energy demand.[10]  Even after the oil glut of the 1980s and lower energy prices, we were still concerned with our reliance on foreign energy.[11]  The continuous mantra of Presidents starting with Richard Nixon was the concept of “Energy Independence” as a policy goal.[12]  Now, not because of government mandates, plans, or policies, but thanks to technological innovation, hard work, and the deployment of private capital, that goal has largely been achieved.  We have the raw materials in the ground that we need to power American energy independence; however, we need our infrastructure to catch-up with our domestic supply.

Returning to my driving lesson, when I look at the road ahead, I see the United States coming to a crossroads.  One road leads to more resilient infrastructure, lower prices, and energy abundance.  The other road leads to energy scarcity, higher prices, and a loss of energy independence.  The direction we take as a country will have a major impact on the energy markets and the futures markets we regulate at the CFTC.  Unfortunately, gaps in energy infrastructure lead to instability and volatility in energy markets, which have a direct impact on the derivatives markets.  If derivatives markets fail to offer adequate price discovery and risk mitigation, they will no longer serve producers and end users as appropriate tools to hedge their exposure.  That is a road we cannot afford to go down.

As a regulator, the CFTC is not the driver of this car, but we definitely have an interest in taking the road that leads to liquid, stable, and vibrant derivatives markets that serve as a tool for hedging against risk. We can do that by ensuring that new derivative products come to market efficiently without the fear of litigation or unreasonable staff positions, and by cultivating new market structures that minimize conflicts and instill market confidence.  Our enforcement efforts should be focused on ‘bad actors’ and not on trying to shortcut deliberative policymaking.  The CFTC should prefer “responsible regulation” over “regulation by enforcement.”  To arrive at our desired destination, we all need to keep our eyes on the road, to see what is right in front of us while simultaneously paying attention to the road ahead.

Thank you for taking this road trip with me today.  I look forward to answering your questions.

MIL OSI USA News –