Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-Evening Report: Locked up for life? Unpacking South Australia’s new child sex crime laws

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Xanthe Mallett, Criminologist, CQUniversity Australia

    Melnikov Dmitriy/Shutterstock

    It’s election time, which means the age old “tough on crime” rhetoric is being heralded by many politicians aiming to score votes.

    Opposition leader Peter Dutton is pushing for a national public sex offender register. Currently only Western Australia has a registry that is open to the public.

    In South Australia, Premier Peter Malinauskas brought in tougher child sex offender laws earlier this week.

    What are these new laws in SA?

    Under these new laws, serious child sex offenders are to be permanently locked up or electronically monitored, if they reoffend.

    Automatic indefinite detention is a significant change.

    Previously, the South Australian attorney-general could apply to the Supreme Court to request an offender be indefinitely detained, if the offender was considered to remain a danger to children and could not be rehabilitated.

    The courts would then decide if they would grant the request, basing their decision on medical and other expert evidence.

    The changes in SA mean those found guilty of a second serious sexual offence against anyone younger than 17 now receive automatic indefinite detention.

    To be considered for release under the new law, an offender needs to show they can control their sexual instincts – so the onus is on them to prove they are not at risk of reoffending.

    To achieve this, two court-selected psychologists would have to provide reports demonstrating the offender was both willing and able to resist committing further sex offences.

    And if they are ever released, they will be electronically monitored for the rest of their lives.

    In addition, registered child sex offenders would be banned from working with anyone under 18.

    The new law also strengthens “Carly’s Law”, which focuses on reducing the sexual grooming of children online by adult predators.

    Inconsistencies across Australia

    The age of legal consent is 16 across Australia, except SA and Tasmania, where it is 17.

    In 2024, an Australian Institute of Criminology report highlighted many of the inconsistencies across the country, including terminology and definitions of sexual offences, despite efforts to achieve national regularity.

    Each state and territory approaches the problem of child sexual abuse differently.

    In NSW, for example, sentencing for child sexual offences has increased over time. This reflects societal expectations given what we know now about the long-term, traumatic consequences of victimisation.

    However, one consideration in sentencing in NSW is whether the sentence could have a “crushing” effect on the offender, and whether they may be entitled to an “element of mercy”.

    Certainly, a full life sentence is a significant departure from this position.

    Why now?

    There is little doubt this is a political move, as these changes were first promised by Labor in the build-up to the 2022 SA election.

    Then in January 2025, Labor announced it planned to introduce them in March – right before the federal election.

    On the face of it, toughening laws aimed at reducing sexual violence against children is a good thing. No one would argue.

    However, the legislation has been fast-tracked in the wake of a number of cases where those previously convicted of a sexual offence against a child reoffended.

    One such case is Dylan Lloyd, who is alleged to have assaulted a 12-year-old girl while she travelled alone on a train. Lloyd had previously been convicted of assaulting a 10-year-old girl in 2021, and since then more alleged victims have come forward to police.

    Cases such as Lloyd’s are preventable, as in this case Lloyd should still be imprisoned. This is one step forward. But consistency across states is needed and the long-term consequences need considering more fully.

    Whether these laws will have the desired deterrent effect has not been answered.

    We need to ensure personal and societal factors affecting crime rates, and which influence peoples’ attitudes and behaviours, are not overlooked.

    Will the laws be good for the community?

    These changes do have the potential to have a meaningful impact, but changing the behaviour of potential offenders is far more complex.

    Potential offenders usually don’t consider the law. At a micro level, their behaviour is most affected by biological and psychological factors, including alcohol, drug addiction and mental health issues, as well as social and environmental factors.

    In addition, there are numerous human rights and constitutional issues with permanent detention or lifelong monitoring, and the SA government may be walking into a legal minefield now they have removed the possibility of parole.

    It would be better to allow judges options for discretion, as the context in which the offending happened is crucial in determining the likelihood of someone being successfully rehabilitated.

    Mandatory full life sentences ignore the fact many sex offenders can be successfully rehabilitated.

    One study in Queensland, which considered local and global evidence, indicated sexual recidivism can be significant reduced when offenders complete sex offender treatment programs.

    Although it costs money to run these programs, the savings outweigh the costs of ongoing incarceration – particularly if we consider indefinite detention.

    Black-and-white laws with little room for movement produce unintended and harmful outcomes.

    It will be interesting to see how the new laws in SA play out in court and if any other states and territories follow suit.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Locked up for life? Unpacking South Australia’s new child sex crime laws – https://theconversation.com/locked-up-for-life-unpacking-south-australias-new-child-sex-crime-laws-255429

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  • MIL-OSI Global: Did ‘induced atmospheric vibration’ cause blackouts in Europe? An electrical engineer explains the phenomenon

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian, Professor of Electrical Engineering, School of Engineering, Swinburne University of Technology

    The lights are mostly back on in Spain, Portugal and southern France after a widespread blackout on Monday.

    The blackout caused chaos for tens of millions of people. It shut down traffic lights and ATMs, halted public transport, cut phone service and forced people to eat dinner huddled around candles as night fell. Many people found themselves trapped in trains and elevators.

    Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has said the exact cause of the blackout is yet to be determined. In early reporting, Portugal’s grid operator REN was quoted as blaming the event on a rare phenomenon known as “induced atmospheric vibration”. REN has since reportedly refuted this.

    But what is this vibration? And how can energy systems be improved to mitigate the risk of widespread blackouts?

    How much does weather affect electricity?

    Weather is a major cause of disruptions to electricity supply. In fact, in the United States, 83% of reported blackouts between 2000 and 2021 were attributed to weather-related events.

    The ways weather can affect the supply of electricity are manifold. For example, cyclones can bring down transmission lines, heatwaves can place too high a demand on the grid, and bushfires can raze substations.

    Wind can also cause transmission lines to vibrate. These vibrations are characterised by either high amplitude and low frequency (known as “conductor galloping”), or low amplitude and high frequency (known as “aeolian vibrations”).

    These vibrations are a significant problem for grid operators. They can place increased stress on grid infrastructure, potentially leading to blackouts.

    To reduce the risk of vibration, grid operators often use wire stabilisers known as “stock bridge dampers”.

    What is ‘induced atmospheric vibration’?

    Vibrations in power lines can also be caused by extreme changes in temperature or air pressure. And this is one hypothesis about what caused the recent widespread blackout across the Iberian peninsula.

    As The Guardian initially reported Portugal’s REN as saying:

    Due to extreme temperature variations in the interior of Spain, there were anomalous oscillations in the very high voltage lines (400 kV), a phenomenon known as “induced atmospheric vibration”. These oscillations caused synchronisation failures between the electrical systems, leading to successive disturbances across the interconnected European network.

    In fact, “induced atmospheric vibration” is not a commonly used term, but it seems likely the explanation was intended to refer to physical processes climate scientists have known about for quite some time.

    In simple terms, it seems to refer to wavelike movements or oscillations in the atmosphere, caused by sudden changes in temperature or pressure. These can be triggered by extreme heating, large-scale energy releases (such as explosions or bushfires), or intense weather events.

    When a part of Earth’s surface heats up very quickly – due to a heatwave, for example – the air above it warms, expands and becomes lighter. That rising warm air creates a pressure imbalance with the surrounding cooler, denser air. The atmosphere responds to this imbalance by generating waves, not unlike ripples spreading across a pond.

    These pressure waves can travel through the atmosphere. In some cases, they can interact with power infrastructure — particularly long-distance, high-voltage transmission lines.

    These types of atmospheric waves are usually called gravity waves, thermal oscillations or acoustic-gravity waves. While the phrase “induced atmospheric vibration” is not formally established in meteorology, it seems to describe this same family of phenomena.

    What’s important is that it’s not just high temperatures alone that causes these effects — it’s how quickly and unevenly the temperature changes across a region. That’s what sets the atmosphere into motion and can cause power lines to vibrate. Again, though, it’s still unclear if this is what was behind the recent blackout in Europe.

    Atmospheric waves can sometimes be seen in clouds.
    Jeff Schmaltz/NASA

    More centralised, more vulnerable

    Understanding how the atmosphere behaves under these conditions is becoming increasingly important. As our energy systems become more interconnected and more dependent on long-distance transmission, even relatively subtle atmospheric disturbances can have outsized impacts. What might once have seemed like a fringe effect is now a growing factor in grid resilience.

    Under growing environmental and electrical stress, centralised energy networks are dangerously vulnerable. The increasing electrification of buildings, the rapid uptake of electric vehicles, and the integration of intermittent renewable energy sources have placed unprecedented pressure on traditional grids that were never designed for this level of complexity, dynamism or centralisation.

    Continuing to rely on centralised grid structures without fundamentally rethinking resilience puts entire regions at risk — not just from technical faults, but from environmental volatility.

    The way to avoid such catastrophic risks is clear: we must embrace innovative solutions such as community microgrids. These are decentralised, flexible and resilient energy networks that can operate independently when needed.

    Strengthening local energy autonomy is key to building a secure, affordable and future-ready electricity system.

    The European blackout, regardless of its immediate cause, demonstrates that our electrical grids have become dangerously sensitive. Failure to address these structural weaknesses will have consequences far worse than those experienced during the COVID pandemic.

    Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Did ‘induced atmospheric vibration’ cause blackouts in Europe? An electrical engineer explains the phenomenon – https://theconversation.com/did-induced-atmospheric-vibration-cause-blackouts-in-europe-an-electrical-engineer-explains-the-phenomenon-255497

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Why do dogs eat poo? A canine scientist explains

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mia Cobb, Research Fellow, Animal Welfare Science Centre, The University of Melbourne

    nygi/Unsplash

    When miniature dachshund Valerie was captured after 529 days alone in the wilds of Australia’s Kangaroo Island, experts speculated she survived partly by eating other animals’ poo.

    While this survival tactic may have saved the resilient sausage dog, it highlights a behaviour that makes many dog owners cringe.

    This type of “recycling” is surprisingly common in our canine companions. But why would dogs, even those with full food bowls, choose to indulge in such a revolting habit?

    Here’s why some dogs can’t resist a faecal feast, known more technically as coprophagia.

    What is coprophagia?

    Coprophagia or coprophagy is the scientific term for eating faecal matter (poo). It’s a behaviour displayed across a number of animal species.

    Around half of all dogs try eating poo at some stage – either their own, another dog’s, or other animals’. Research suggests about one in four dogs have made it a regular habit.

    In wild canids like foxes and wolves, mothers will eat their puppies’ stools to keep dens clean and reduce scents that might attract predators.

    It’s also thought that eating fresh faeces could reduce the likelihood of intestinal parasites being spread, offering an evolutionary benefit to our dogs’ wild counterparts.

    Modern dogs still actively clean their puppies’ poo away in the first few weeks of life, a behaviour that puppies observe and can learn.

    Licking away ‘waste’ from their puppies is a normal maternal behaviour in dogs.
    Anurak Pongpatimet/Shutterstock

    Nutritional factors

    As unpalatable as it might seem to us, poo still contains considerable nutrients that offer valuable compounds as a food source when times are tough.

    Dogs do have different preferences to us in terms of texture, taste and odour of their food, so we should not be hasty to dismiss what might appeal to them.

    Medical reasons

    The links between diet, gut flora and diseases that might influence behaviours like coprophagia are still emerging. At this stage, there seems to be no apparent link with age or diet.

    There could be underlying health reasons for your dog seeking out a sneaky snack, so do mention it to your vet and get a health check if your dog is known to frequent the kitty litter box, for example.

    Punishment in toilet training, living conditions that don’t provide enough to do or room to explore (like kennel facilities), and psychological distress have all been linked to dogs eating their own poo.

    Shelters and kennel facilities are often built for hygiene and safety, not to keep dogs’ minds and bodies active.
    Evgenii Bakhchev/Shutterstock

    A strain on relationships

    Our typical response to seeing dogs eat any kind of poo ranges from disgust to concern. At best it makes us less likely to want a lick to the face, at worst it can really strain our human-animal bonds.

    One study from the United Kingdom showed that dogs eating their own poo after rehoming was in the top ten reasons for the adoption failing in the first four weeks when dogs were returned to the shelter.

    Dogs can potentially transmit parasites and bacteria to humans through licking, regardless of whether they eat poo. This serves as a good reminder to ensure your dog receives appropriate parasite control and encourage all household members to follow good hygiene practices, like washing hands before eating.




    Read more:
    Is it okay to kiss your pet? The risk of animal-borne diseases is small, but real


    Help, my dog keeps eating poo

    While Valerie’s tale of survival shows us coprophagia may be life-saving in extreme situations, most of our doggo companions aren’t facing wilderness survival challenges.

    Thankfully, coprophagia is often manageable.

    Understanding why our dogs might eat poo – whether based on evolutionary instinct, medical issues or psychological triggers – can help us address this canine behaviour with compassion rather than just disgust.

    If your dog indulges often, providing appropriate stimulation through regular exercise, social connection with people and other dogs, offering toys and safe chews can help. Sometimes, a trip to the vet might be needed to rule out any underlying health issues.

    Offering fun activities is one way to reduce the chance of your dog eating poo.
    Kojirou Sasaki/Unsplash

    Dogs reprimanded for toileting accidents might eat the evidence to avoid future punishment, creating a new problem behaviour. Instead, rewarding your puppy or dog for toileting in the right location (and giving them frequent opportunities to do so) is likely to establish toileting routines you will approve of, making coprophagia less likely.

    By the same token, dogs can’t eat what isn’t left lying around. Regular poo-pickups in your yard, dog park, kitty litter box and other likely locations will remove temptation and help set your dog up for success.

    If Valerie has taught us anything, it’s that what might be considered our dogs’ most revolting habits are actually remarkable adaptations that deserve our understanding and empathy, even if we can’t rally enthusiastic support.

    Mia Cobb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Why do dogs eat poo? A canine scientist explains – https://theconversation.com/why-do-dogs-eat-poo-a-canine-scientist-explains-234361

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Sick of eating the same things? 5 ways to boost your nutrition and keep meals interesting and healthy

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Collins, Laureate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Newcastle

    Loquellano/Pexels

    Did you start 2025 with a promise to eat better but didn’t quite get there? Or maybe you want to branch out from making the same meal every week or the same lunch for work almost every day?

    Small dietary changes can make a big difference to how you feel, how your body functions and health indicators such as blood pressure, blood sugar and cholesterol levels.

    You can meet your nutrient needs by eating a range of foods from the key food groups:

    • vegetables and fruit
    • protein (legumes, beans, tofu, meats, poultry, fish, eggs, nuts, seeds)
    • grains (mostly wholegrain and high-fibre)
    • calcium-rich foods (milk, yoghurt, cheese, non-dairy alternatives).

    But you also need a variety of foods to get enough vitamins, minerals and phytonutrients from plant foods. Phytonutrients have antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, anti-cancer and other functions that help keep you healthy.

    Use these five dietary tweaks to boost your nutrient intake and add variety to what you eat.

    1. Include different types of bran to boost your fibre intake

    Different types of dietary fibre help improve bowel function through fermentation by gut microbes in the colon, or large bowel. This creates larger, softer bowel motions that then stimulate the colon to contract, leading to more regular bowel movements.

    Add different types of dietary fibre – such as oat bran, wheat bran or psyllium husk – to breakfast cereal or add some into recipes that use white flour:

    • psyllium husk is high in soluble fibre. It dissolves in water forming viscous gel that binds to bile salts, which get excreted and your body is then not able to convert them into cholesterol. This helps lower blood cholesterol levels as well as with retaining water in your colon, making bowel motions softer. Soluble fibre also helps slow the digestive process, making you feel full and slows the normal rise in blood sugar levels after you eat

    • wheat bran is an insoluble fibre, also called roughage. It adds bulk to bowel motions, which helps keep your bowel function regular

    • oat bran contains beta-glucan, a soluble fibre, as well as some insoluble fibre.

    Try keeping small containers topped up with the different fibres so you don’t forget to add them regularly to your breakfast.

    Psyllium husk is high in soluble fibre, which dissolves in water and slows digestion.
    Shawn Hempel/Shutterstock

    2. Add a different canned bean to your shopping list

    Dried beans are a type of legume. From baked beans to red kidney beans and chickpeas, the canned varieties are easy to use and inexpensive. Different colours and varieties have slightly different nutrient and phytonutrient profiles.

    Canned beans are very high in total dietary fibre, including soluble fibre and resistant starch, a complex carbohydrate that resists digestion in the small intestine and then passes into the colon where it gets fermented.

    The body digests and absorbs the nutrients in legumes slowly, contributing to their low glycemic index. So eating them makes you feel full.

    Regularly eating more legumes lowers blood sugar levels, and total and LDL (bad) cholesterol.

    Add legumes to dishes such as bolognese, curry, soups and salads (our No Money No Time website has some great recipes).

    3. Try a different wholegrain, like buckwheat or 5-grain porridge

    Wholegrain products contain all three layers of the grain. Both the inner germ layer and outer bran layer are rich in fibre, vitamins and minerals, while the inner endosperm contains mostly starch (think white flour).

    Wholegrains include oats, corn (yes, popcorn too), rye, barley, buckwheat, quinoa, brown rice and foods made with wholegrains, like some breads and breakfast cereals such as rolled oats, muesli and five-grain porridge.

    Wholegrains aren’t just breakfast and lunch foods. Dinner recipe ideas include tuna and veggie pasta bake,
    chicken quesadillas and buckwheat mushroom risotto.

    4. Try a different vegetable or salad mix every week

    A review of the relationship between plant-based diets and dying of any cause followed more than half a million people across 12 long-term studies.

    It found people who ate the most plants had a lower risk of dying during the study and follow-up period than those who ate hardly any.

    Add a rainbow coleslaw to your meal.
    Kiian Oksana/Shutterstock

    Try adding a new or different vegetable or salad item to your weekly meals, such as rainbow coleslaw, canned beetroot, raw carrot, red onion, avocado or tomatoes.

    Or try a stir-fry with bok choy, celery, capsicum, carrot, zucchini and herbs.

    The more variety, the more colour, flavour and textures – not to mention phytonutrients.

    5. Go nuts

    Cashews, walnuts, almonds, macadamias, pecans and mixed nuts make a great snack.

    (Peanuts are technically a legume because they grow in the ground but we count them as nuts because their nutrient profile is very similar to the tree nuts.)

    You have to chew nuts well, which means your brain receives messages that you are eating and should expect to soon feel full.

    Nuts are energy-dense, due to their high fat content. A matchbox portion size (30 grams) contains about 15 grams of fat, 5 grams of protein and 740 kilojoules.

    While some people think you need to avoid nuts to lose weight, a review of energy restricted diets found people who ate nuts lost as much weight as those who didn’t.

    My colleagues and I at the University of Newcastle have created a free Healthy Eating Quiz where you can check your diet quality score, see how healthy your usual eating patterns are and how your score compares to others. You can also get some great ideas to make your meals more interesting .

    Clare Collins AO is a Laureate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics at the University of Newcastle, NSW and a Hunter Medical Research Institute (HMRI) affiliated researcher. She is a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Leadership Fellow and has received research grants from NHMRC, ARC, MRFF, HMRI, Diabetes Australia, Heart Foundation, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, nib foundation, Rijk Zwaan Australia, WA Dept. Health, Meat and Livestock Australia, and Greater Charitable Foundation. She has consulted to SHINE Australia, Novo Nordisk, Quality Bakers, the Sax Institute, Dietitians Australia and the ABC. She was a team member conducting systematic reviews to inform the 2013 Australian Dietary Guidelines update, the Heart Foundation evidence reviews on meat and dietary patterns and current Co-Chair of the Guidelines Development Advisory Committee for Clinical Practice Guidelines for Treatment of Obesity.

    ref. Sick of eating the same things? 5 ways to boost your nutrition and keep meals interesting and healthy – https://theconversation.com/sick-of-eating-the-same-things-5-ways-to-boost-your-nutrition-and-keep-meals-interesting-and-healthy-245672

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Peace in our time? Why NZ should resist Trump’s one-sided plan for Ukraine

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert G. Patman, Professor of International Relations, University of Otago

    GettyImages Getty Images

    Is it possible to reconcile increased international support for Ukraine with Donald Trump’s plan to end the war? At their recent meeting in London, Christopher Luxon and his British counterpart Keir Starmer seemed to think so.

    Starmer thanked New Zealand for its “support” for a “coalition of the willing” that would safeguard the implementation of a potential peace deal concluded by the Trump administration.

    But unless something drastically changes in the near future, all the signs point to the US president envisaging a Ukraine peace settlement on Russian president Vladimir Putin’s terms.

    According to that view, peace can only be achieved if Ukraine is prepared to accept that territories wholly or partially annexed by Russia now belong to Moscow.

    In 2014, Russia seized Crimea on the Black Sea. Following the illegal 2022 invasion, Russia claimed four parts of eastern and southern Ukraine as its own – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and the Zaporizhzhia region.

    At the same time, Trump’s peace deal includes a provision that rules out NATO membership for Ukraine. This meets a key Russian demand that seeks to deny Ukraine’s sovereign right to choose its own security arrangements.

    According to Trump, Putin’s major concession is the promise that Russia will not annex the rest of Ukraine – something Moscow has been trying to do for the past three years.

    To accept this, however, liberal democracies such as New Zealand and Britain would be tacitly signalling they share common values and interests with the Trump administration and its apparent enthusiasm for a geopolitical partnership with Putin’s dictatorship.

    And in some ways, Trump’s Ukraine peace initiative is a bigger challenge for New Zealand than it is for Britain.

    Keir Starmer and Christopher Luxon speak to the media during a visit to a UK military base training Ukrainian troops, April 22.
    Getty Images

    Lessons of the past

    Like Britain, New Zealand fought in two world wars in the 20th century to advance, among other things, certain key international principles. These included state sovereignty and a prohibition on the use of force to change borders, principles subsequently enshrined in the United Nations Charter.

    But unlike Britain, New Zealand is a relatively small state that does not have a veto in the UN Security Council to protect its interests. Consequently, it is even more dependent on an international rules-based order for its security and prosperity.

    For New Zealand, Trump’s current Ukraine peace plan is a clear and present danger because it would set such a terrible precedent.

    Under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons (left over from when it was part of the Soviet Union) in return for assurances from Russia, the US and UK that recognised Ukrainian independence and the inviolability of its existing borders.

    The Trump administration’s plan, however, insists Ukraine must accept the illegal and partial dismemberment of its territory to attain peace with Russia.

    Rewarding Russian aggression in this way is tantamount to a failure to learn the historical lessons of the 20th century. In particular, it seems to forget the period during the 1930s when Britain tried in vain to appease an expansionist Nazi regime in Germany.

    Trump’s peace plan basically endorses the idea that “might is right” and that it is fine for great powers or big countries to steal land from smaller countries.

    Adjusting NZ foreign policy

    In Trump’s top-down world view, multilateral institutions and international law are regarded as superfluous at best and an enemy at worst.

    In such a world, relatively small powers such as New Zealand, with “no cards to play” at the top table, must either submit to the dominance of great powers (including the US) or suffer the consequences.

    Moreover, there is a real risk that Trump’s stance toward Putin’s regime will be viewed as weakness by China, Russia’s most important backer. This could embolden Beijing to increasingly assert itself in the Indo-Pacific, including the Pacific Islands region, where New Zealand has core strategic interests.

    Trump’s plan for Ukraine brings into sharp focus what has already been evident from other recent trends: a domestic slide toward autocracy in Washington, the unilateral imposition of tariffs, and territorial threats against close allies Canada and Denmark.

    As European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen put it, “The West as we knew it no longer exists.”

    The transactional nature of Trump’s leadership – including that peace in Ukraine can be bought with mineral rights and territorial trade-offs – suggests the US can no longer be relied on to provide a security guarantee for liberal democracies in Europe or elsewhere.

    The current New Zealand government needs to find the self-confidence and resolve to admit Trump is backing Putin’s imperial project in Ukraine. And it needs to adjust its foreign policy accordingly.

    This does not mean Wellington should weaken its traditional friendship with the US.

    On the contrary, many Americans might expect and welcome the prospect of New Zealand clearly and publicly standing against their president’s dangerous alignment with an authoritarian regime at Ukraine’s expense.

    Robert G. Patman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Peace in our time? Why NZ should resist Trump’s one-sided plan for Ukraine – https://theconversation.com/peace-in-our-time-why-nz-should-resist-trumps-one-sided-plan-for-ukraine-255495

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  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘A living collective’: study shows trees synchronise electrical signals during a solar eclipse

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Monica Gagliano, Research Associate Professor in Evolutionary Biology, Southern Cross University

    Zenit Arti Audiovisive

    Earth’s cycles of light and dark profoundly affect billions of organisms. Events such as solar eclipses are known to bring about marked shifts in animals, but do they have the same effect on plants?

    During a solar eclipse in a forest in Italy’s Dolomites region, scientists seized the chance to explore that fascinating question.

    The researchers were monitoring the bioelectrical impulses of spruce trees, when a solar eclipse passed over. They left their sensors running to record the trees’ response to the eclipse – and what they observed was astonishing.

    The spruce trees not only responded to the solar eclipse – they actively anticipated it, by synchronising their bioelectrical signals hours in advance.

    This forest-wide phenomenon, detailed today in the journal Royal Society Open Science, reveals a new layer of complexity in plant behaviour. It adds to emerging evidence that plants actively participate in their ecosystems.

    Lead author Monica Gagliano discusses the research findings.

    Do trees respond collectively?

    The research was led by Professor Alessandro Chiolerio of the Italian Institute of Technology, and Professor Monica Gagliano from Australia’s Southern Cross University, who is the lead author on this article. It also involved a team of international scientists.

    A solar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes between the Sun and Earth, fully or partially blocking the Sun’s light.

    An eclipse can inspire awe and even social cohesion in humans. Other animals have been shown to gather and synchronise their movements during such an event.

    But scientists know very little about how plants respond to solar eclipses. Some research suggests the rapid transitions from darkness to light during an eclipse can change plant behaviour. But this research focuses on the responses of individual plants.

    The latest study set out to discover if trees respond to a solar eclipse together, as a living collective.

    Alessandro Chiolerio and Monica Gagliano at the site of the study.
    Simone Cargnoni

    What the research involved

    Charged molecules travel through the cells of all living organisms, transmitting electrical signals as they go. Collectively, this electrical activity is known as the organism’s “electrome”.

    The electrical activity is primarily driven by the movement of ions across cell membranes. It creates tiny currents that allow organisms, including humans, to coordinate their body and communicate.

    The researchers wanted to investigated the electrical signals of spruce trees (Picea abies) during a partial solar eclipse on October 25, 2022. It took place in the Costa Bocche forest near Paneveggio in the Dolomites area, Italy.

    The study took place in the Dolomites in northeast Italy.
    Monica Gagliano

    The scientists set out to understand the trees’ electrical activity during the hour-long eclipse. They used custom-built sensors and wired them to three trees. Two were healthy trees about 70 years old, one in full sun and one in full shade. The third was a healthy tree about 20 years old, in full shade.

    They also attached the sensors to five tree stumps – the remnants old trees, originally part of a pristine forest, but which were devastated by a storm several years earlier.

    For each tree and stump, the researchers used five pairs of electrodes, placed in both the inner and outer layers of the tree, including on exposed roots, branches and trunks. The electrodes were connected to the sensors.

    This set-up allowed the scientists to monitor the bioelectrical activity from multiple trees and stumps across four sites during the solar eclipse. They examined both individual tree responses, and bioelectrical signals between trees.

    In particular, the scientists measured changes in the trees’ “bioelectrical potentials”. This term refers to the differences in voltage across cell membranes.

    The scientists attached electrodes and sensors to the trees to monitor their electrical activity.
    Zenit Arti Audiovisive

    What did they find?

    The electrical activity of all three trees became significantly more synchronised around the eclipse – both before and during the one-hour event. These changes occur at a microscopic level, such as inside water and lymph molecules in the tree.

    The two older trees in the study had a much more pronounced early response to the impending eclipse than the young tree. This suggests older trees may have developed mechanisms to anticipate and respond to such events, similar to their responses to seasonal changes.

    Solar eclipses may seem rare from a human perspective, but they follow cycles which can occur well within the lifespan of long-lived trees. The scientists also detected bioelectrical waves travelling between the trees. This suggests older trees may transmit their ecological knowledge to younger trees.

    Such a dynamic is consistent with studies showing long-distance signalling between plants can help them coordinate various physiological functions in response to environmental changes.

    The two older spruce trees in the study had a much more pronounced early response to the impending eclipse than the young tree.
    Zenith Audiovisual Arts

    The researchers also detected changes in the bioelectrical responses of the stumps during the eclipse, albeit less pronounced than in the standing trees. This suggests the stumps were still alive.

    The research team then used computer modelling, and advanced analytical methods including quantum field theory, to test the findings of the physical experiment.

    The results reinforced the experimental results. That is, not only did the eclipse influence the bioelectrical responses of individual trees, the activity was correlated. This suggests a cohesive, organism-like reaction at the forest scale.

    The researchers also detected changes in the bioelectrical responses of the stumps during the eclipse.
    Zenit Arti Audiovisive

    Understanding forest connections

    These findings align with extensive prior research by others, highlighting the extent to which trees in forest ecosystems are connected.

    These behaviours may ultimately influence the forest ecosystem’s resilience, biodiversity and overall function, by helping it cope with rapid and unpredictable changes.

    The findings also underscore the importance of protecting older forests, which serve as pillars of ecosystem resilience – potentially preserving and transmitting invaluable ecological knowledge.


    This research is featured in a documentary, Il Codice del Bosco (The Forest Code), premiering in Italy on May 1, 2025.

    The findings underscore the importance of protecting older forests. Pictured: the Dolomites region.
    Zenith Audiovisual Arts

    Monica Gagliano received funding for this research from the Templeton World Charity Foundation.

    Prudence Gibson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. ‘A living collective’: study shows trees synchronise electrical signals during a solar eclipse – https://theconversation.com/a-living-collective-study-shows-trees-synchronise-electrical-signals-during-a-solar-eclipse-255499

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Global: Young bats learn to be discriminating when listening for their next meal

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Logan S. James, Research Associate in Animal Behavior, The University of Texas at Austin

    A frog-eating bat approaches a túngara frog, one of its preferred foods. Grant Maslowski

    It is late at night, and we are silently watching a bat in a roost through a night-vision camera. From a nearby speaker comes a long, rattling trill.

    Cane toad’s rattling trill call.

    The bat briefly perks up and wiggles its ears as it listens to the sound before dropping its head back down, uninterested.

    Next from the speaker comes a higher-pitched “whine” followed by a “chuck.”

    Túngara frog’s ‘whine chuck’ call.

    The bat vigorously shakes its ears and then spreads its wings as it launches from the roost and dives down to attack the speaker.

    Bats show tremendous variation in the foods they eat to survive. Some species specialize on fruits, others on insects, others on flower nectar. There are even species that catch fish with their feet.

    The calls male frogs use to attract mates also attract eavesdropping predators. Here, a frog-eating bat consumes an unlucky male túngara frog.
    Marcos Guerra, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute

    At the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama, we’ve been studying one species, the fringe-lipped bat (Trachops cirrhosus), for decades. This bat is a carnivore that specializes in feeding on frogs.

    Male frogs from many species call to attract female frogs. Frog-eating bats eavesdrop on those calls to find their next meal. But how do the bats come to associate sounds and prey?

    We were interested in understanding how predators that eavesdrop on their prey acquire the ability to discriminate between tasty and dangerous meals. We combined our expertise on animal behavior, bat cognition and frog communication to investigate.

    How do bats know the sound of a tasty meal?

    There are nearly 8,000 frog and toad species in the world, and each one has a unique call. For instance, the first rattling call that we played from our speaker came from a large and toxic cane toad. The second “whine chuck” came from the túngara frog, a preferred prey species for these bats. Just as herpetologists can tell a frog species by its call, frog-eating bats can use these calls to identify the best meal.

    Over the years, our research team has learned a great deal from frog-eating bats about how sound and echolocation are used to find prey, as well as the role of learning and memory in foraging success. In our newly published study, we focused on how associations between the sounds a bat hears and the prey quality it expects arise within the lifespan of an individual bat.

    Adult bats like the one pictured have extensive acoustic repertoires and remember specific frog calls year after year. Young bats must learn which calls to respond to – and, critically, which to ignore – over time through experience.
    Grant Maslowski

    We considered whether the associations between sound and a delicious meal are an evolved specialty that bats are born with. But this possibility seemed unlikely because the bat species we study has a large geographic distribution across Central and South America, and the species of frogs found across this range vary tremendously.

    Instead, we hypothesized that bats learn to associate different sounds with food as they grow up. But we had to test this idea.

    First, we and our collaborators spent time in the forest and at ponds to record the mating calls from 15 of the most common frog and toad species in our study area in Panama.

    Rachel Page, one of the lead authors on the study, takes a bat out of a mist net in Panama.
    Jorge Alemán, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute

    Then, we set up mist nets along streams in Soberanía National Park to capture wild bats for the study.

    Frog call, bat response

    For the testing, each bat was housed individually in a large, outdoor flight chamber. From a speaker on the ground in the center, we played calls from one frog species on loop for 30 seconds and measured the behavior of the bat, which was hanging from a cloth roost. As we expected, adult bats were generally uninterested in the sounds of species that were unpalatable, such as those with toxins or those that are too large for the bat to carry.

    But it was a different story for young bats. Juveniles responded with significantly more predatory behaviors in response to the calls of toxic toads compared with the adults. They also responded more weakly than adults to the sounds of túngara frogs, a palatable, abundant prey that adult bats prefer.

    Thus it seems that juvenile bats must learn the associations between sounds and food over the course of their lives. As they grow up, we believe they learn to ignore the calls of frogs that aren’t worth the trouble and zero in on the calls of frogs that will be a good meal.

    To better understand how sounds drive prey associations, we measured the acoustic properties of the different calls. We found that some of the most noticeable features of the calls correlated with body size: Larger frogs produce lower-frequency calls – that is, their voices are deeper. Both the adult and juvenile bats responded more strongly to larger species, which would provide larger meals.

    However, there was a clear exception in the responses of adults, where the toxic toads and very large frogs elicited much weaker responses than expected for their body size. This finding led us to hypothesize that bats have early biases to pay attention to sounds associated with larger body size. Then they must learn through experience that meal quality is not only about size. Some large meals are toxic or impossible to carry, making them unpalatable.

    Once the researchers have studied each frog-eating bat for a few days, they safely release it where it was originally captured. Footage courtesy of Léna de Framond-Bénard and Eric de Framond-Bénard, compiled by Caroline Rogan.

    After the bats spent a few days with us, we released each one back at its original site of capture. The bats departed, taking with them a small RFID tag, just like the ones pet owners use to identify their dogs and cats, in case we meet again as part of a future study.

    As the bats go on with their lives in the wild, we continue our quest to deepen our understanding of the subtleties of information discrimination. How do individuals weed through information overload to make choices that make sense and benefit them? That’s the same challenge we all face each day.

    Logan S. James receives funding from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, McGill University, and the Earth Species Project.

    Rachel Page receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute.

    Ximena Bernal receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute.

    ref. Young bats learn to be discriminating when listening for their next meal – https://theconversation.com/young-bats-learn-to-be-discriminating-when-listening-for-their-next-meal-253321

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mark Carney won: Here are the key economic priorities for his new government

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Berhane Elfu, Lecturer in Finance, Northern Alberta Institute of Technology

    The Liberal Party led by Mark Carney has secured a fourth consecutive term in government. This victory has come at a time when Canada is facing an unprecedented threat to its economic security and sovereignty from United States President Donald Trump.

    In an election defined by concerns over Trump’s erratic tariff policy and talk of making Canada a 51st state, voters decided Carney was the leader best equipped to deal with these challenges.

    Carney previously served as governor of the Bank of Canada, where he guided the country through the 2008 global financial crisis. He later became the first non-British person to head the Bank of England, helping guide the United Kingdom through Brexit, one of the biggest shocks to the British economy in decades.




    Read more:
    Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney leads Liberals to their fourth consecutive win


    Now the world is facing similar financial shocks from Trump’s trade war. The on-again, off-again nature of Trump’s tariff policy could inflict significant damage to the global economy — even more to the American economy — and cause irreparable damage to its reputation as a rational entity in international trade.

    In the face of the ill-advised and self-defeating U.S. tariffs, the new Canadian government should take prudent, urgent and bold steps to strengthen the nation’s economy. Here are major and important economic priorities for the government to reshape the economy and spur much-needed economic growth.

    Stabilize and strengthen the national economy

    As a primary act, the new government should stabilize the Canadian economy from the tariff shocks. It must continue to develop carefully calibrated retaliations to Trump’s tariffs.

    The revenue raised from the tariffs should be used to compensate those directly affected by them, using a multi-pronged mechanism that includes training, increased employment insurance benefits and additional transfers to low-income households to reduce the impact of tariffs on food costs.




    Read more:
    U.S. tariffs are about to trigger the greatest trade diversion the world has ever seen


    Currently, a series of provincial regulations restrict the goods and services that cross Canada’s provincial borders daily. The new government should urgently remove longstanding interprovincial trade barriers.

    According to a report by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, removing these impediments could boost the economy by up to $200 billion annually. Similarly, a study by the International Monetary Fund indicates the effect of these barriers is equivalent to a 21 per cent tariff.

    Removing interprovincial trade barriers would significantly offset the negative effects of Trump’s tariffs on the Canadian economy, and provide a boost to the “Buy Canadian” movement.

    Carney seems to have made this a priority already, which is promising. In March, he said he aims to have “free trade by Canada Day” among provinces and territories.

    Streamlining natural resource projects

    Canada is a natural resource superpower. However, for natural resources and critical minerals to be extracted efficiently, regulatory processes need to be streamlined by cutting red tape and duplicative assessments.

    The federal government and the provinces should agree to a single environmental assessment that meets the standards of both jurisdictions.

    Additionally and importantly, respectful, genuine and meaningful consultations must be undertaken by project proponents and governments with the relevant Indigenous communities to address their concerns, respect their rights and safeguard their economic well-being in the development of the natural resources projects.

    Carney has said he will uphold the principle of free, prior and informed consent when it comes to initiating resource extraction projects and make it easier for Indigenous communities to become owners of said projects.

    A similar approach should also guide the construction of infrastructure projects such as pipelines and ports, which play a crucial role in facilitating Canada’s exports.

    Boost Canada’s productivity through innovation

    A country’s ability to raise living standards for its people mostly depends on its capacity to improve its productivity. Economist Paul Krugman once stated, “productivity is not everything, but, in the long run, it is almost everything.”

    Canada’s productivity is lagging, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.




    Read more:
    Canada is lagging in innovation, and that’s a problem for funding the programs we care about


    The new Canadian government should take steps to boost the nation’s productivity by increasing direct expenditures on research and development. Additional funding should be allocated to higher institutions of learning, and incentivizing businesses to spend more on research and development through significant tax credits.

    Although research and development spending continues to grow in Canada, as a percentage to GDP, it is the second lowest among G7 nations. Boosting investments will drive innovation, spur economic growth and ensure Canada remains competitive on the global stage.

    Dealing with U.S. tariffs

    One of the government’s primary tasks will be preparing meticulously for trade negotiations with the U.S. to address the threat of tariffs and reach a “win-win” trade deal. Given Trump’s highly unpredictable nature, negotiations will not be easy.

    Although Trump could have withdrawn from the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), he has not done so, and zero-tariffs remain in effect for products that are certified as being North American origin under the CUSMA rules. This could be a solid starting point for future trade negotiations.

    At the same time, Carney and his team must work to stabilize the Canadian economy against the unprecedented threat of Trump’s tariffs by strengthening the domestic economy, diversifying Canada’s exports and reducing the country’s dependence on the U.S.

    Pulling away from the world’s largest economy will not be easy for Canadian businesses, given the deep integration of Canada’s economy with that of the U.S.

    Still, expanding trade with the European Union, the U.K., Africa and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — and exploring other opportunities to reducing trade barriers with nations in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America — will enlarge Canada’s export market.

    By doing all this, Canada can not only prepare for a tough round of U.S. trade talks but also position itself as a stronger, more self-reliant global trading partner.

    Berhane Elfu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Mark Carney won: Here are the key economic priorities for his new government – https://theconversation.com/mark-carney-won-here-are-the-key-economic-priorities-for-his-new-government-255477

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: The impact of strategic voting in Canada

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Terri Givens, Professor, Political Science, University of British Columbia

    Initially expected to result in a decisive Conservative victory, the Canadian federal election took a dramatic turn as Mark Carney led the Liberals to victory. It also offered an important lesson in the power of strategic voting — driven not just by domestic politics but by external pressures from the United States and a re-energized Liberal campaign.

    In December 2024, the Conservative Party was leading the Liberal Party by more than 20 points in the polls. But Justin Trudeau’s resignation, combined with U.S. President Donald Trump’s antagonistic stance towards Canada, triggered a sharp shift in public opinion.

    When Carney stepped in as prime minister and party leader, the stage was set for a Liberal comeback. But what had been seen as a referendum on the 10-year rule of the Liberal Party ended up being focused on the existential threat posed by Trump’s tariffs and his calls to turn Canada into the 51st state.

    During the campaign, many voters discussed their intention to switch from the Conservatives to the Liberals.

    The pushback against the Conservatives, and in particular their leader, Pierre Poilievre, led to him losing in his own riding, although the Conservatives gained more seats overall.

    The Liberals benefited from strategic voting, but it was the NDP that appeared to lose the most from this strategy.

    The NDP went from winning 25 seats in the previous election to only seven, while their leader Jagmeet Singh also lost in his riding, leading to his resignation as party leader.

    Strategic voting on display

    My first book, Voting Radical Right in Western Europe (2009), focused on the impact of strategic voting. At the time, I observed that political parties would often try to induce voters to vote strategically for a party or candidate that might not otherwise be their first choice.

    This type of strategic voting was clearly on display in the second round of the French presidential election in 2002, when Jean-Marie Le Pen of the far right National Front faced Jacques Chirac in the second round.

    Some left-leaning voters went to the polls with clothespins on their noses or latex gloves on to vote for Chirac and keep Le Pen out of the presidency.

    This strategy worked again in the July 2024 legislative elections in France, where the left and mainstream right-leaning parties came together to make sure that they didn’t split the vote in districts where it could lead to a win by the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally). In both cases, voters chose more moderate candidates, reducing the influence of the far right.

    Electoral systems are often designed to encourage voters to choose a more moderate candidate. This approach includes putting electoral hurdles in place. For example, parties in Germany have to win at least five per cent of the vote or win three district seats to enter the legislature.

    This approach had been successful since the Second World War in keeping far right parties out of the legislature — that is until the recent success of the Alternative for Germany party.

    The ability of that party to gain votes in the former East Germany has been the main reason for its success.

    Winners and losers in Canada

    Canada presents an interesting case for strategic voting. In the lead-up to the federal election, many voters were posting suggestions for strategic voting in districts where the vote was being split between parties, particularly on the left.

    For example, there was a close race in a riding in British Columbia between the Green and Conservative candidates. I noticed social media posts in which voters were encouraged to shift their vote from the NDP or Liberal candidates to give the Green candidate a better chance of winning the riding.

    As of April 25, Conservatives were expected to win the riding, but on election night, Elizabeth May from the Green Party won with 39 per cent of the vote, with the Conservative candidate falling to third place behind the Liberals.

    Given the fact that the Canadian electoral system is winner-take-all in each riding, it’s important that voters understand the broader impact of their vote on the national outcome.

    It’s likely that many voters switched their votes from their smaller, preferred party — particularly the NPD — to one of the main parties, depending on the kind of poll projections they might have been seeing in their ridings.

    This situation exemplifies the importance of parties providing clear information on potential outcomes to encourage voters to use their vote strategically to get a desired outcome at the national level.

    Terri Givens does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. The impact of strategic voting in Canada – https://theconversation.com/the-impact-of-strategic-voting-in-canada-255489

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Vietnam War ended 50 years ago today, yet films about the conflict still struggle to capture its complexities

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Scarlette Nhi Do, Sessional Academic, The University of Melbourne

    Scene from Apocalypse Now (1979) Prime Video

    The Vietnam War (1955–1975) was more than just a chapter in the Cold War.

    For some, it was supposed to achieve Vietnam’s right to self-determination. For others, it was an attempt to found a nation-state independent of both capitalist and communist influences.

    In the 50 years since the war ended, the stories we’ve heard about it have struggled to convey these many different views. Cinema – in Hollywood and in Vietnam – offers some insight into this struggle, which we continue to face today.

    A war by any other name

    The war is known by many names, and each one highlights the different objectives of the forces involved.

    For the United States, “The Vietnam War” was one battleground against the Soviet Union during the Cold War. To prevent communism from spreading, the US sent resources to establish the Republic of Vietnam (known informally as South Vietnam) as its proxy. It had already used this strategy with West Germany and South Korea.

    The Communist Party of Vietnam thought of US involvement as a form of colonialism.

    By calling the conflict “the sacred resistance against the US to salvage the country” (Cuộc Kháng Chiến Chống Mỹ, Cứu Nước), or “the American war” (Chiến Tranh Mỹ) for short, the communist party encouraged the perception of the war as a stepping stone towards Vietnam’s full independence following Chinese imperialism (circa 111 BCE–939 CE), French colonialism (1862–1954) and Japanese occupation (1940-45).

    The communist objective was to “liberate” South Vietnam from the US and its puppet administration, and reunify the country. This is why, in Vietnam, April 30 is called “Reunification Day” or “Independence Day”, to commemorate the communists’ victory in capturing Saigon.

    However, former citizens of South Vietnam call April 30 the “Day of National Mourning” (Ngày Quốc Hận), as it marks the Republic’s defeat and the beginning of decades of political persecution and refugee displacement. Although the South Vietnamese were pluralistic in their political beliefs, they were united in their anti-communism.

    For them, the conflict was “the Civil War” (Nội Chiến), fought between communists and anti-communists over the future of Vietnam. After the Republic fell, many grieved (and still do) the vision of what South Vietnam could have become.

    Apocalypse then

    While the US eventually lost control over South Vietnam, it continued to influence how Vietnam was thought of in the West through Hollywood.

    Francis Ford Coppola’s Apocalypse Now is loosely based on Joseph Conrad’s classic novel, Heart of Darkness.
    Shutterstock

    In the 1970-80s, Vietnam War films such as Francis Ford Coppola’s Apocalypse Now (1979), Stanley Kubrick’s Full Metal Jacket (1987) and Oliver Stone’s Platoon (1987) established these directors as household names.

    The films focus on US soldiers’ psyche and discontent with incompetent leadership, pushing the Vietnamese people and their struggles for independence into the background. They frame the war as something done to American society, rather than something the US orchestrated.

    This victimhood fostered what became known as “the Vietnam syndrome” – an unofficial condition in American mindset characterised by feelings of woundedness and a loss of trust in the capability of the US.

    In Vietnam, early communist-controlled cinema in the north depicted the Vietnamese as an oppressed people who must band together to defeat Western corruption. Wartime films such as Along the Same River (1959) and 17th Parallel, Days and Nights (1972) leaned into melodramatic love stories to allegorise the divided Vietnam as separated lovers who must be reunited.

    As directors in the north slowly gained some freedom from the communist party, films increasingly dealt with the war’s immense impact and questioned the party’s ability to bring about the classless society it had promised. The Girl on the River (1987) and Living in Fear (2005) are two good examples.

    Living in Fear (Sống trong sợ hãi) trailer.

    Meanwhile, filmmakers in the south were independents who occasionally collaborated with the state or military, as seen with the classic 1971 film Faceless Lover (also known as Warrior, Who Are You?).

    South Vietnamese people saw film as a medium to negotiate their fledgling national identity. For them, it was important to establish and safekeep an identity that was distinct from the “foreign ally” (the US) and the “domestic foe” (the communists).

    This is why films from the south often portrayed love triangles, where the hero must choose between the vessels of modern Vietnamese femininity and Western excess. Some examples include Afternoon Sun (1972) and Late Night’s Dew (1972).

    Apocalypse now

    New perspectives on the war are emerging as historically marginalised groups gain footing in Western media. And some of these challenge early portrayals.

    Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods (2020) was the first major production to show the war through Black American veterans’ eyes. Hollywood neglected to do this, despite the over-representation of Black soldiers in conscription, combat and casualties during wartime.

    Although Da 5 Bloods still fails to account for the Vietnamese’s fight for self-determination, it acknowledges Black Americans’ and the Vietnamese people’s mutual suffering under white supremacy.

    One independent feature from a son of refugees, Journey from the Fall (2006), conveys the resentment many exiled South Vietnamese people feel towards the communist party. It also explores the trauma of leaving Vietnam by boat and resettlement in the US.

    Most recently, the 2024 TV series The Sympathizer, adapted from Viet Thanh Nguyen’s novel, moved the needle by probing at complex issues such as wartime loyalty, complicity and authenticity.

    Communist narratives persist

    In Vietnam today, the scale of communist party-funded movies has grown immensely, with many films resembling Hollywood blockbusters. But the messages have become more conservative.

    Films such as The Scent of Burning Grass (2012) and The Legend Makers (2013) continue to support the communist party narrative by omitting South Vietnam’s anti-communist objective. They also undermine women’s contributions to the war efforts, whereas earlier films put women at the centre of community organisation.

    A new generation of filmmakers is challenging these narratives through collaboration with international production companies and distributors. Features such as Viet and Nam (2024) experiment with film form to show the true costs of war, including the widening wealth disparity in Vietnam, and the lengths many would go to close this gap.

    Viet and Nam trailer.

    Scarlette Nhi Do does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. The Vietnam War ended 50 years ago today, yet films about the conflict still struggle to capture its complexities – https://theconversation.com/the-vietnam-war-ended-50-years-ago-today-yet-films-about-the-conflict-still-struggle-to-capture-its-complexities-253837

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Housing affordability is at the centre of this election, yet two major reforms seem all but off-limits

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matt Garrow, Editorial Web Developer

    This federal election, both major parties have offered a “grab bag” of policy fixes for Australia’s stubborn housing affordability crisis. But there are still two big policy elephants in the room, which neither side wants to touch.

    The first is negative gearing. This can apply to business losses relating to any investment. But in the context of housing, it allows property investors to claim annual losses incurred renting out an investment property as deductions against their taxable income.

    Proponents argue this boosts the supply of rental housing by encouraging investment. Critics say it’s an unfair tax break that disproportionately benefits the wealthy while driving up house prices.

    This situation has been controversial for a long time. The Hawke government tried to implement major reforms in the 1980s but these were reversed soon afterwards.

    The second “elephant”, which some economists argue “put a rocket under” housing prices, is the 50% capital gains tax discount for assets held for longer than a year. This was introduced by the Howard government at the turn of the millennium.

    In 2019, the then Labor leader Bill Shorten learned the hard way what can happen when you bring negative gearing and capital gains tax reform to an election as part of a “big target” platform. Yet these tax concessions remain highly contentious.

    Whom do they benefit most? Are they behind the housing crisis? Is keeping them fair on the rest of us? We invited four experts to unpack this debate. Here are the elements they told us are most crucial:



    Digital Storytelling Team does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Housing affordability is at the centre of this election, yet two major reforms seem all but off-limits – https://theconversation.com/housing-affordability-is-at-the-centre-of-this-election-yet-two-major-reforms-seem-all-but-off-limits-241262

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump says diversity initiatives undermine merit. Decades of research show this is flawed

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paula McDonald, Professor of Work and Organisation, Queensland University of Technology

    Pixel-Shot/Shutterstock

    US President Donald Trump declared earlier this year he would forge a “colour blind and merit-based society”.

    His executive order was part of a broader policy directing the US military, federal agencies and other public institutions to abandon diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives.

    Framing this as restoring fairness, neutrality and strength to American institutions, Trump argued DEI programs “discourage merit and leadership” and amounted to “race-based and sex-based discrimination”.

    In Australia too, debates over gender quotas and “the war on woke” have repeatedly invoked meritocracy as a rallying cry against affirmative action.

    The narrative of rewards going to the most qualified people is compelling. Yet decades of research show this is flawed. Far from being the great equaliser, an uncritical reliance on “merit” can perpetuate bias and inequality.

    The myths of meritocracy

    The merit rhetoric invokes the ideal of a neutral, objective system rewarding talent and effort, regardless of identity.

    In theory, merit-based evaluations such as exams, performance reviews, employee recruitment processes and competitive bids, should be impartial.

    In practice however, there are several myths associated with the notion of merit.

    1. Merit is purely objective or unbiased. In the employment context for example, studies show that even so-called objective and standardised cognitive or aptitude tests can systematically favour men due to the type of questions asked.

    Decision-makers may unknowingly redefine merit to fit whoever already belongs to a favoured group. A study of elite law firms, for example, found male applicants were rated as more qualified than identical resumes from women.

    This is known as “plasticity of merit”, meaning the criteria of excellence can bend to preference, all while appearing objective.

    Supposedly merit-based judgments can reflect unconscious bias, or comfort with candidates who fit a traditional mould. Over time, preference may be given to a particular type of candidate irrespective of their actual contribution. Privilege and prejudice can be baked into merit-based evaluations.

    2. Merit can be separated from social and historical context. Meritocracy or the so-called meritocratic promise assumes a level playing field, where everyone competes under the same conditions.

    In reality however, past inequalities shape present opportunities. What counts as merit is dynamic and socially shaped, not an eternal universal standard.

    For example, during the second world war there was a shortage of male workers. Qualities women brought to jobs previously held by men such as capacity for teamwork were suddenly deemed meritorious. But these same qualities were downgraded when the men returned.

    Merit is often defined in masculine terms. For example, physicality or hyper-competitive traits have long been seen as prerequisites for military service and policing.

    Merit is often defined in masculine terms commonly associated with military, policing and firefighting services.
    Charnsitr/Shutterstock

    This alignment of masculine norms with standards of merit has been termed “benchmark man”.

    Science careers too were built in an era when women were largely excluded. They were predicated on long-hours work and total availability – requirements that clash with caregiving responsibilities. The result is women in STEM careers leave or are pushed out.

    3. Outcomes are the result of personal choice or deficiencies, not structural barriers. Meritocracy carries a moral narrative: those at the top earned their place while those left behind didn’t measure up or chose not to compete.

    Research shows, for example, that when women don’t advance, it’s explained as lifestyle choices, or they lack ambition, or have opted out to prioritise caregiving.

    This narrative wilfully overlooks the structural constraints impacting choices. When a woman “chooses” a lower-paying, flexible job, it may be less about preference than inadequate social supports.

    By accepting unequal outcomes as the natural result of individual choices, institutions can conveniently obscure disadvantage and discrimination and erase responsibility to correct inequities.

    How the merit mandate undermines equality

    Trump’s vision is to remove equity initiatives and programs that monitor or encourage fair hiring and promotion, cease training that alerts employees to hidden biases, and fire or reassign DEI staff.

    This is conceptually flawed and will actually entrench the very biases and barriers that have kept institutions unequal.

    In the military, for example – an area highlighted by Trump – leaders have recognised they need to foster more inclusive cultures.

    For years, defence forces have grappled with sexual harassment, recruitment shortfalls and retention of skilled personnel. In Australia, the Australian Defence Force undertook major reviews to identify violent and sexist subcultures, understanding a more inclusive force is a more effective force.

    Yet Trump’s order bars the Pentagon from even acknowledging historical sexism in the ranks.

    Favouring the in-group

    Removing equity measures under a banner of neutrality means hiring and promotion will increasingly rely on informal networks and subjective judgements. These can tilt in favour of the in-group – usually white, male and affluent.

    DEI initiatives can increase representation of women, or people from diverse racial or cultural backgrounds, in an organisation or occupational group.

    However, without challenging the norms of merit, or without broadening the definitions of talent and leadership, people in those groups may continue to feel like outsiders.

    Australian experts and business leaders increasingly acknowledge objective merit is mythical.

    Redefining merit

    Fair rewards for effort can improve performance. However, we need to stop pitting merit against diversity. True fairness requires acknowledgement structural inequality exists and bias affects evaluations.

    Organisations need to re-imagine merit in ways that work with inclusion, rather than against it. This includes refining hiring and promotion criteria to focus on competencies that are measurable and relevant.

    Paula McDonald currently receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    ref. Trump says diversity initiatives undermine merit. Decades of research show this is flawed – https://theconversation.com/trump-says-diversity-initiatives-undermine-merit-decades-of-research-show-this-is-flawed-255100

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Renewables, coal or nuclear? This election, your generation’s energy preference may play a surprising role

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Magnus Söderberg, Professor & Director, Centre for Applied Energy Economics and Policy Research, Griffith University

    Christie Cooper/Shutterstock

    In an otherwise unremarkable election campaign, the major parties are promising sharply different energy blueprints for Australia. Labor is pitching a high-renewables future powered largely by wind, solar, hydroelectricity and batteries. The Coalition wants more gas and coal now, and would build nuclear power later.

    So how might these two competing visions play out as Australia goes to the polls this Saturday?

    Research shows clear generational preferences when it comes to producing electricity. Younger Australians prefer renewables while older people favour coal and gas. The one exception is nuclear power, which is split much more on gender lines than age – 51% of Australian men support it, but just 26% of women.

    While many voters are focused squarely on the cost of living, energy prices feed directly into how much everything costs. Research has shown that as power prices rise, the more likely it is an incumbent government will be turfed out.

    Coal, renewables or nuclear?

    About half of young Australians (18–34) want the country powered by renewables by 2030, according to a 2023 survey of energy consumers. Only 13% of the youngest (18–24) group think there’s no need to change or that it’s impossible. But resistance increases directly with age. From retirement age and up, 29% favour a renewable grid by 2030 while 44% think there’s no need or that it’s impossible.

    On nuclear, the divide is less clear. The Coalition has promised to build Australia’s first nuclear reactors if elected, and Coalition leader Peter Dutton has claimed young people back nuclear. That’s based on a Newspoll survey showing almost two-thirds (65%) of Australians aged 18–34 supported nuclear power.

    But other polls give a quite different story: 46% support for nuclear by younger Australians in an Essential poll compared to 56% support by older Australians. A Savanta poll put young support at just 36%.

    There’s a gender component too. The demographic most opposed to nuclear are women over 55.

    Younger voters remain strongly committed to environmental goals – but they’re also wary of cost blowouts and electricity price rises. Some see nuclear as a zero emissions technology able to help with the clean energy transition.

    Older Australians are more likely to be sceptical of nuclear power. This is likely due to nuclear disasters such as Chernobyl as well as the prospect of nuclear war during the Cold War.

    It’s an open question how robust support for nuclear would be if the Coalition was elected and began the long, expensive process of construction. New findings by the National Climate Action Survey shows almost 40% of Australians would be “extremely concerned” if a nuclear power plant was built within 50 kilometres of their homes and another 16% “very concerned”.

    These energy preferences aren’t just found in Australia. In recent research my co-authors and I found a clear divide in Sweden: younger favour renewables and nuclear, older favour fossil fuels. Why the difference? Sweden already gets about 40% of its power from nuclear, while renewables now provide about 40% of Australia’s power.

    We found younger Swedes strongly favoured renewables – but also supported nuclear power, especially when electricity prices rose. That is because nuclear is perceived to stabilise the supply of electricity. They wanted clean energy, as long as it was reliable and affordable. Our study found older people were not necessarily pro-fossil fuels, but were more focused on keeping energy affordable – especially for businesses and industry.

    When electricity prices rose in Sweden, our survey respondents broadly became less concerned about climate change and more likely to be favourable to nuclear energy.

    In Australia, the cost of the clean energy transition has crept up. While solar and wind offer cheap power once built, there are hidden costs.

    If electricity prices keep rising, we should expect to see declining support for the clean energy transition.

    Overcoming the energy divide

    During Australia’s decade-long climate wars from roughly 2012 to 2022, climate change was heavily politicised and energy became a political football. Under a Coalition government in 2014, Australia became the first nation to abolish a carbon tax.

    Labor took office in 2022 pledging to end the climate wars and fast-track the clean energy transition. But the Coalition has opened up a new divide on energy by proposing nuclear power by the 2040s and more gas and coal in the meantime.

    This election, the cost of living is the single biggest issue for 25% of voters in the ABC’s Vote Compass poll. But climate change is still the main concern for about 8% of voters, energy for 4% and the environment 3.5%. Here, Coalition backing for fossil fuels and nuclear may attract some older and younger voters but repel others. Labor’s renewable transition may attract younger voters but lose older energy traditionalists.

    Energy preferences could play out through a cost of living lens. Parties pushing too hard on green policies this election risk alienating older voters concerned about rising costs. But going nuclear would be very expensive, and keeping old coal plants going isn’t cheap. Downplaying climate action or dismissing nuclear outright could alienate some younger Australians, who are climate-conscious and energy-savvy.

    Policymakers should resist framing energy as a zero-sum game. There is a path forward which can unite generations: coupling ambitious climate targets with pragmatic policies to protect consumers. Transitional supports such as energy rebates, time-of-use pricing or community-scale renewables and batteries can soften any economic impact while building public trust.

    Our research suggests electricity price rises can quickly erode support even for well-designed energy policies.

    As Australia navigates a complex and costly transition, keeping both younger and older generations on board may be the greatest political – and moral – challenge of all.

    Magnus Söderberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Renewables, coal or nuclear? This election, your generation’s energy preference may play a surprising role – https://theconversation.com/renewables-coal-or-nuclear-this-election-your-generations-energy-preference-may-play-a-surprising-role-253832

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  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘No compassion… just blame’: how weight stigma in maternity care harms larger-bodied women and their babies

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Briony Hill, Deputy Head, Health and Social Care Unit and Senior Research Fellow, Monash University

    Kate Cashin Photography

    According to a study from the United States, women experience weight stigma in maternity care at almost every visit. We expect this experience to be similar in Australia, where more than 50% of women of reproductive age live in larger bodies.

    Weight stigma can present as stereotyping, negative attitudes and discriminatory actions towards larger-bodied people.

    It occurs in other areas of health care and in society at large. But our research is focused on weight stigma in maternity care, which can cause significant harm for larger-bodied women and their babies.

    What does weight stigma look like in maternity care?

    Sometimes weight stigma is explicit, or on purpose. Explicit weight stigma includes health-care professionals having negative attitudes towards caring for larger-bodied pregnant women. This might present, for instance, when health professionals make negative comments about weight or accuse women of dishonesty when they discuss their dietary intake.

    Sometimes weight stigma is implicit, or unintentional. Implicit weight stigma includes maternity care providers avoiding physical touch or eye contact during consultations with larger-bodied women.

    Policies, guidelines and environments also contribute to weight stigma. Women in larger bodies frequently report feeling stigmatised and unable to access the type of maternity care they would prefer. Lack of availability of adequately fitting hospital clothing or delivery beds are other notable examples.

    In a review published last year, we looked at weight stigma from preconception to after birth. Our results showed larger-bodied women are sometimes automatically treated as high-risk and undergo extra monitoring of their pregnancy even when they have no other risk factors that require monitoring.

    This approach is problematic because it focuses on body size rather than health, placing responsibility on the woman and disregarding other complex determinants of health.

    Weight stigma is common in maternity care.

    How does this make women feel?

    Qualitative evidence shows women who experience weight stigma during their maternity care feel judged, devalued, shamed and less worthy. They may feel guilty about getting pregnant and experience self-doubt.

    As one research participant explained:

    One doctor told me I was terrible for getting pregnant at my weight, that I was setting up my baby to fail […] I was in tears, and he told me I was being too sensitive.

    A 2023 Australian paper written by women who had experienced weight stigma in maternity care recounted their care as hyper-focused on weight and dehumanising, robbing them of the joy of pregnancy.

    According to one woman, “there was no compassion or conversation, just blame”.

    Beyond making women feel humiliated and disrespected, weight stigma in maternity care can affect mental health. For example, weight stigma is linked to increased risk of depressive symptoms and stress, disordered eating behaviours and emotional eating.

    One of the key reasons why weight stigma is so damaging to pregnant women’s health is because it’s closely linked to body image concerns.

    Society unfairly holds larger-bodied women up to unrealistic ideals around their body shape and size, their suitability to be a mother, and the control they have over their weight gain.

    Self stigma occurs when women apply society’s stigmatising narrative – from people in the community, the media, peers, family members and health-care providers – to themselves.

    Larger-bodied pregnant women can face stigma from health-care professionals and society at large.
    antoniodiaz/Shutterstock

    Impacts on mum and baby

    Several adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes have been linked to weight stigma in maternity care. These include gestational diabetes, caesarean birth and lower uptake of breastfeeding.

    While we know these things can also be linked to higher body weight, emerging evidence shows weight stigma may have a stronger link with some outcomes than body mass index.

    There are a variety of possible reasons for these links. For example, weight stigma may result in delayed access to and engagement with health-care services, and, as shown above, poorer mental health and reduced confidence. This may mean a woman is less likely to initiate and seek help with breastfeeding, for example.

    Experiencing weight stigma also leads to a stress response in the body, which could affect a woman’s health during pregnancy.

    In turn, the adverse effects of weight stigma can also affect the baby’s health. For example, gestational diabetes has a range of potential negative outcomes including a higher likelihood of premature birth, difficulties during birth, and an increased risk of the child developing type 2 diabetes.

    But the burden and blame should not fall on women. Pregnant and postpartum women should not have to accept experiences of weight stigma in health care.

    Weight stigma in maternity care has been linked to a higher likelihood of caesarean birth.
    photosoria/Shutterstock

    What can we do about it?

    While it’s essential to address weight stigma as a societal issue, health services can play a key role in undoing the narrative of blame and shame and making maternity care more equitable for larger-bodied women.

    Addressing weight stigma in maternity care can start with teaching midwives and obstetricians about weight stigma – what it is, where it happens, and how it can be minimised in practice.

    We worked with women who had experienced weight stigma in maternity care and midwives to co-design resources to meet this need. Both women and midwives wanted resources that could be easily integrated into practice, acted as consistent reminders to be size-friendly, and met midwives’ knowledge gaps.

    The resources included a short podcast about weight stigma in maternity care and images of healthy, larger-bodied pregnant women to demonstrate the most likely outcome is a healthy pregnancy. Midwives evaluated the resources positively and they are ready to be implemented into practice.

    There is a long road to ending weight stigma in maternity care, but working towards this goal will benefit countless mothers and their babies.

    Briony Hill receives funding from the Australian Research Council. Some research reported in this article was funded by the Australian Prevention Partnership Centre. The Australian Prevention Partnership Centre was supported through the NHMRC partnership centre grant scheme with the Australian Government Department of Health, ACT Health, Cancer Council Australia, NSW Ministry of Health, Wellbeing SA, Tasmanian Department of Health, and VicHealth. It is administered by the Sax Institute.

    Haimanot Hailu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. ‘No compassion… just blame’: how weight stigma in maternity care harms larger-bodied women and their babies – https://theconversation.com/no-compassion-just-blame-how-weight-stigma-in-maternity-care-harms-larger-bodied-women-and-their-babies-252725

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  • MIL-Evening Report: State of the states: the campaign is almost over, so how has it played out across Australia?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Clune, Honorary Associate, Government and International Relations, University of Sydney

    While many Australians have already voted at pre-poll stations and by post, the politicking continues right up until May 3.

    So what’s happened across the country over the past five weeks?

    Here, six experts analyse how the campaign has looked in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria and Western Australia.

    New South Wales

    David Clune, honorary associate, government and international relations, University of Sydney

    The campaign in NSW is concluding much as it began, largely mirroring the Australia-wide trend with little evidence of localism.

    The main themes of both sides remain similar: cost-of-living alleviation, improved health care and housing affordability. Both leaders quickly matched each other’s promises: it could be described as the “Albanutton” campaign.

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s campaign continued to be hampered by slip-ups and a lack of focus, detail and discipline. Although the government’s record had given him plenty of scope, Dutton struggled to land a blow.

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had his share of gaffes, but appeared more coherent and convincing. Labor’s negative campaign to portray Dutton as a local Trump clone seems to have been effective.

    Some in the Liberal Party argue there’s pent-up resentment against the government in Western Sydney that hasn’t been picked up by opinion polls. Whether this hypothetical backlash turns into seats on polling day remains to be seen.

    Bennelong (notionally Liberal after the redistribution) and Gilmore, seem the most likely Liberal gains. Parramatta, Reid, Paterson, Robertson and Werriwa are also in play. There is speculation about an independent threat in the safe Labor seat of McMahon.

    The Coalition has a fight on its hands to retain Cowper and Bradfield, with strong independent challenges in both seats. There is a tight three-way contest in Calare between former National turned independent, Andrew Gee, a National and a Teal.

    As there is little real policy differentiation between the major parties; it seems to come down to which side the voters find more credible and trustworthy in uncertain times.

    According to a Newspoll published on April 27, Albanese led Dutton as preferred prime minister by 51% to 35%. Only 39% of those surveyed believed the government deserved to be re-elected. However, 62% believed the Coalition was not ready to govern.

    An aggregate of polling data showed in NSW, as at April 28, Labor’s two-party preferred vote was 53.0%, an increase since the March Budget of 2.8% and of 1.6% since the 2022 election.

    Queensland

    Paul Williams, associate professor of politics and journalism, Griffith University

    In the campaign’s closing week, Queensland remains largely inconsequential as to whether Albanese or Dutton will call The Lodge home.

    But that doesn’t mean the Liberal National Party (LNP) isn’t concerned about its prospects north of the Tweed.

    While the LNP still leads Labor in the two party-preferred vote, 54 to 46, across Queensland – roughly the 2022 result – last week’s YouGov poll found that result to be a three-point fall for the LNP from the previous week.

    While Labor is hardly going to blitz Queensland, some LNP seats are nonetheless more vulnerable than at any time over the past decade. These include the regional seats of Leichhardt (3.4 %) and Flynn (3.8%), the outer suburban seats of Dickson (held by Dutton by just 1.7%), Longman (3.1%), Forde (4.2%) and Petrie (4.4%), and the middle-suburb mortgage-belt seat of Bonner (3.4%).

    Independent Suzie Holt might also worry the LNP in the usually safe seat of Groom, around Toowoomba.
    But the last-minute “rescue” of the LNP by Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON) – Hanson (reciprocating the LNP’s preferencing of PHON) pulped existing how to vote cards and printed new ones placing the LNP second in most seats – might just save the opposition.

    However, the campaign has offered little clarity on the prospects in other key Queensland contests: the battles for three Greens-held inner-urban seats of Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith.

    But a mid-April DemosAU poll found the Greens’ primary vote falling by 1.7 points to 29%, a figure exactly tied with Labor’s, which has risen 2.7% since 2022.

    Problematically for Dutton, the LNP, whose primary vote remains locked at 36%, appears not to have capitalised on cost-of-living angst in inner Brisbane.

    Despite 58% of inner Brisbane leaning centre-left, these figures suggest the LNP may fail to win any Greens seats, with the contest a close one between the Greens and Labor only. The result rests on who runs third: Labor or the Greens. There could be a mere 100 votes in these must-watch seats.

    In the Northern Territory, the seat of Lingiari, which takes in Alice Springs and Katherine, is held by Labor’s Marion Scrymgour by 1.7%. In 2022, just one in three enrolled voters cast a ballot in the electorate, prompting the Australian Electoral Commission to try to increase voter turnout. In the wash-up, it will be interesting to see if this improves.

    South Australia

    Rob Manwaring, associate professor of politics and public policy, Flinders University

    Given SA is home to only a handful of marginal seats, it’s not a well-trodden part of the campaign trail. That’s typical of most federal elections.

    What’s not so typical is the overall feel of the campaign. The rhythms of Australian elections are changing. On one level, there are the familiar tropes and activities; TV debates, campaign launches and letter box blitzes in key marginal seats.

    Yet, on the other hand, voters behave differently than they used to. Data from the Australian Election Study(AES) tells us far fewer voters have made their decision “a long time ago” (55% in 2007, down to 36% in 2022).

    This means the number of “soft” voters is probably much higher as major parties have fewer “lifetime voters”. Voters are much more transactional.

    Voters are more distanced from parties, too. The study shows fewer voters use how to vote cards (51% used them in 2007, 31% in 2022). We can’t rely on traditional metrics in the same way, such as the national two-party preferred vote given the number of “non-traditional seats”.

    In short, it’s now harder to more know how the campaigns are tracking. So while the Coalition campaign has been beset by a number of mis-steps, how this is playing out is far less clear.

    Further, a strange paradox of the emergence of the Teals and other independents is there is a stronger local focus on representation, rather than broader policy debates. Again, AES data suggests most voters tend to vote for policy reasons (like the economy or health) but the current media focus on the major parties, especially through the TV debates, actually seems to narrow the broader policy discussions.

    So while the proof will be in the pudding when the votes are counted, it may be high time to reflect on what campaign strategies work best for politics in 2025.

    Tasmania

    Robert Hortle, deputy director of the Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of Tasmania

    On Australia’s South Island, most of the campaign focus has been on Lyons, Franklin and Braddon.

    In Lyons, Tassie’s most marginal electorate (ALP by 0.9%), the latest polls have swung behind the ALP’s Rebecca White. Her popularity as a state MP for the electorate has been bolstered by some crucial slip ups from Liberal candidate Susie Bower.

    One potentially vote-winning policy announcement that has gone under the radar nationally is Labor’s commitment of $24 million to guarantee the continued operation of the Boyer Paper Mill in Lyons, an important employer and regional symbol of economic activity.

    Franklin has been full of drama. 19-year-old Greens candidate Owen Fitzgerald had to withdraw his candidacy after it emerged that he is likely to still be a New Zealand citizen. It seemed like the Greens would encourage their voters to preference independent anti-salmon candidate Peter George.

    However, when the party’s how to vote cards were published, they said “Vote 1 – Owen Fitzgerald”.

    According to the Greens, this was to make sure that voters completed their ballot correctly. The Liberal Party argued the Greens were just trying to secure public funding.

    There have also been billboard shenanigans and various other dirty (or should that be clean?) tricks.

    The result is likely to rest on how Liberal voters feel about salmon farming and how this influences their preferences. Are they so anti-Labor that they will preference Peter George ahead of Julie Collins despite his anti-salmon stance? Or will they put Collins ahead of George based on Labor’s support for the industry?

    In Braddon, where salmon farming is again a key issue, Labor’s Anne Urquhart has been more visible on the campaign trail than Liberal Mal Hingston. Although the margin at the last election was 8% in favour of the Liberals, last-minute polling (albeit with a small sample size) has offered Labor hope of winning the crucial seat.

    Bridget Archer, Liberal MP for Bass, has had a solid if unspectacular campaign. She was helped by Labor selecting a low-profile first-time candidate, Jess Teesdale, who the party sees as “one for the future”. Teesdale revealed her “greenness” – in both senses of the word – by accidentally contradicting the ALP’s position on native forest logging, which is always a flashpoint in Tassie.

    Victoria

    Zareh Ghazarian, senior lecturer in politics, school of social sciences, Monash University

    With just days to go in this campaign, Victoria still looks like a key state that will determine who governs for the next three years. Many seats across the state have new boundaries following the AEC redistribution.

    Victoria is also home to the most marginal seat in the country. Deakin, which covers the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, is held by Liberal Michael Sukkar with a margin of just 0.02%, according to ABC Election Analyst Antony Green.

    Deakin will be the seat to watch on election night. If the Liberal Party can’t hold on to Deakin, it would be unlikely to be able to win government.

    There are also other seats that will provide a fascinating contest on Saturday night. Labor will face its own test in trying to retain Chisholm and Aston, both in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne.

    Chisholm is a swinging seat. It has been won by both Labor and Liberal parties over the past 40 years and is currently held by Labor with a margin of 3.3%. It has had a significant redistribution, losing strong Labor booths in the north and south parts of the electorate.

    Aston is also on a similarly slim margin of 3.6% and was famously won by Labor at the by-election in 2023. Holding onto Aston will be a crucial test for Labor. Losing this seat may threaten Labor’s chances of forming a majority government after the election.

    There are also the two seats held by the independents which promise to be tight contests. The previously safe Liberal seats of Kooyong and Goldstein, which were won by Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel respectively, have been targeted by the Liberal Party. The independents will face a significant battle and, if successful, will demonstrate a significant shift in voting behaviour has occurred in these electorates.

    Western Australia

    Narelle Miragliotta, associate professor in politics, Murdoch University

    The idea that WA would determine the outcome of government has been a persistent theme throughout the campaign, reinforced by four visits from Albanese and three from Dutton. The amount of attention WA has received from the major party leaders was more than any state or territory other than the three big population states: NSW, Victoria and Queensland. Even then, Albanese made one more visit to WA than he did Queensland at the time of writing.

    Both major parties brought their big guns on the campaign trail. Former Liberal PM John Howard visited Curtin, Tangney and Bullwinkel. The newly re-elected WA Labor Premier Roger Cook campaigned heavily with Albanese during his visits. And in the final days of the campaign, Mark McGowan, the popular former premier, was seen on the hustings with Labor candidates in four marginal seats.

    Neither major party leader ventured to places where they might receive an unwelcome reception. Dutton’s intention to steer clear of the Shire of Collie, particularly the town of Muja, the proposed site of the one of the seven nuclear power plants, was signalled early in the campaign. Albanese avoided electorates in the state’s southwest opposed to coastal wind farms.

    There were no significant candidate blunders. However, questions were raised about the whereabouts of Andrew Hastie, shadow defence minister and (putative) future Liberal leader. Hastie was also questioned about the missing party logo (as against party authorisations) on his campaign materials.

    The competition between the Nationals and Liberals in the seat of Bullwinkel was without major media incident. This includes when the Nationals’ candidate, Mia Davies, broke with the federal coalition over support for Labor’s production tax credits plan.

    The contest for Curtin attracted outsized local media attention. In the final days of the campaign, there were renewed efforts to link the independent incumbent, Kate Chaney, to the Greens. All the proof the West Australian newspaper required was Chaney’s connection to a senior Greens party official, evidenced by a 2024 donation totalling $104, a photo and an author’s credit.

    To what extent has the leader visits and the campaign moved the needle? A recent study found party leader visits make only a modest impact on the vote. Polling for Labor and the Liberals in WA has remained very steady. This doesn’t mean some seats won’t change, but to which party or candidate remains unclear.

    Paul Williams is a research associate with the T.J. Ryan Foundation.

    David Clune, Narelle Miragliotta, Rob Manwaring, Robert Hortle, and Zareh Ghazarian do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. State of the states: the campaign is almost over, so how has it played out across Australia? – https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-the-campaign-is-almost-over-so-how-has-it-played-out-across-australia-253125

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  • MIL-OSI Global: Donald Trump’s first 100 days have badly damaged trust in America both economically and as an ally

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Steve Dunne, PhD researcher, Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick

    As in life, trust matters in international politics. Vital for cooperation and reciprocation, trusting someone nevertheless leaves one vulnerable should they break faith and pursue self-serving goals. As US political scientist Andrew Kydd recognised, trust is the belief that someone “prefers mutual cooperation to exploiting and suckering others”.

    Two versions of trust matter in international relations. Strategic trust, in the form of institutionalised agreements and organisations which provide certainty – as well as material incentives – to encourage people and nations to honour their commitments. And moralistic trust, based on what social scientists call an “implicit theory of personality” that involves people making everyday judgements regarding a person’s character and integrity.

    A brief look at the liberal post-war economic order shows how trust has proved fundamental. The Bretton Woods system of multilateral institutions that developed after the second world war, including the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and World Trade Organization, created a rules-based consistency for mutual benefit.

    The WTO, for example, promised members that economic conditions between countries would not opportunistically and suddenly change. If they did, independent recourse was available through its appellate body.

    This certainty encouraged many otherwise hesitant states to engage. The collapse of the appellate body in 2019 – after the US, under then-president, Donald Trump, blocked further appointees, thus denying it the required quorum – was a critical first step towards the present crisis in trust.



    How is Donald Trump’s presidency shaping up after 100 days? Here’s what the experts think. If you like what you see, sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter.


    Across the opening 100 days of his second term, Trump has broken both these conceptions of trust. In doing so, he has devastated – perhaps irreparably – economic confidence in the US.

    In terms of strategic trust, look no further than Trump’s attacks on Canada and Mexico. On February 1, Trump threatened near-universal 25% tariffs on exports from America’s two largest trading partners. These tariffs entered into effect on March 4 and were followed by additional duties on aluminum, steel and auto parts.

    Viewed from Canada and Mexico, Trump’s actions were an unambiguous breach of trust and the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, which Trump had personally signed in 2020. Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, reacted by forewarning that “its clear the US is no longer a reliable partner” and predicted a “fundamentally different relationship” between the two countries going forwards.

    When it comes to moralistic trust, Trump was on weak ground before even becoming president. Beyond his business dealings – which have historically involved unpaid vendors and fraudulent practices – as well as serious allegations of abuse, Trump’s first term was marked by numerous reputational failings. These included a historic two impeachments, the second for his role in the January 6 insurrection that attempted to unlawfully overturn the 2020 election result.

    “Liberation Day” on April 2, which was when Trump announced the details of his tariffs, delivered a singular blow. The heavy targeting of poorer countries such as Cambodia and Lesotho – while exempting Russia – strengthened reservations about Trump’s character. Equally, the blatant idiocy of many tariffs – most prominently the Heard and McDonald Islands, which are uninhabited save for penguins – further limited confidence in his administration’s competency and judgement.

    Combined with Trump’s imperialistic bullying of other nations, from Greenland, to Panama to Ukraine, his remaining integrity in economic affairs has imploded. Although the full effects (and damage) of Trump’s actions on America’s reputation are not yet known, adverse consequences should be expected in both the short and longer terms.

    The long and the short

    In the short term, decreased economic trust will prolong market volatility. April 3-4 saw the largest-ever two-day loss, as US$6.6 trillion (£5 trillion) was erased from US stocks. Trump’s tariffs are also expected to depress growth, both at home and abroad.

    JP Morgan now rates the likelihood of a recession this year at 60% – more than double when Trump took office. Consumer confidence, meanwhile, is at its second lowest since records began.

    Increased prices for groceries – two-thirds of US vegetable imports come from Mexico – as well as energy bills – the US imports 61% of its oil from Canada – is also likely. Higher tariffs on goods from China will similarly impact domestic spending.

    In the longer-term, diminished economic trust will continue to weaken bond markets, hampering America’s ability to service its colossal national debt. The increased cost of dollar-denominated goods could also spark a debt crisis reminiscent of the 1980s, when Latin America defaulted en masse, causing widespread economic turmoil.

    Perhaps most significantly, declining global trust will accelerate processes of de-dollarisation and reduce reliance on the dollar as a reserve currency. The ending of the “exorbitant privilege” – the advantage enjoyed by the US thanks to the dollar being the global reserve currency – could spell disaster vis-à-vis borrowing costs and, ultimately, risk a balance of payments crisis. More broadly, de-dollarisation would leave the US economically marginalised in a more multipolar global economy.

    Extending beyond economics, however, Trump’s trade policy will eviscerate American soft power unless corrected. With trust in the US dwindling, an increase in coercive forms of bargaining with international trade partners over more cooperative approaches becomes inevitable. Despite the demonstrable superiority of the latter approach, mutual trust is required to facilitate successful collaboration.

    Without trust, negotiation itself becomes an impossibility. And if trust is consistently broken, even those predisposed towards cooperation will be deterred.

    The US under Trump is fast becoming untrustworthy. American reliability must now be broadly questioned, from collective security to the rule of law. The effect of this widespread loss of trust – embodied by Trump’s indiscriminate and ill-mannered economic attacks – will be the neutering of US soft power.

    The foundation of American strength for decades, its ability to attract and appeal to its allies as an alternative to coercion, is now on life support. Meanwhile, China – purportedly “the greatest threat to America today” – is actively exploiting this decline and accelerating its own soft power initiatives.

    If Trump truly wishes to make America great again, then betraying allies through coercive mistreatment is not the answer. Honest engagement that builds trust is.

    Steve Dunne receives funding from the Equality and Human Rights Commission.

    ref. Donald Trump’s first 100 days have badly damaged trust in America both economically and as an ally – https://theconversation.com/donald-trumps-first-100-days-have-badly-damaged-trust-in-america-both-economically-and-as-an-ally-255150

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: How the UK’s microchip industry is bouncing back after a quarter of a century

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Peter Gammon, Professor of Power Electronic Devices, School of Engineering, University of Warwick

    A silicon carbide wafer, from which microchips are manufactured. Peter Gammon

    Silicon microchips underpin our modern lives. They are at the heart of our smartphones and laptops. They also play critical roles in electric vehicles and renewable energy technology.

    Today, more than three-quarters of microchips, also known as semiconductors, are produced in Asia. But in the 1990s, chip production was more widely distributed across the globe – and the UK punched above its weight.

    Scotland’s central belt – the area of highest population density, including Glasgow, Edinburgh and the towns surrounding them – became known as “Silicon Glen”, employing 50,000 people in the electronics industry at its peak.

    The region exported everything from PCs to Playstation chips. Multinational companies like NEC, Motorola and Texas Instruments operated major facilities there. In the 2000s, the dotcom crash triggered industry-wide consolidation and a shift to lower-cost manufacturing facilities in east Asia. The UK’s domestic capability was almost wiped out.

    But the UK semiconductor industry is quietly bouncing back. A new wave of companies is focusing on microchips designed for clean energy technology. These chips power electric vehicles and are vital for integrating renewable energy into the grid. They’re also widely used in data centres.

    Whereas most microchips are based on the element silicon, these new chips are made from “compound” semiconductors: silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN).

    The chemical compounds SiC and GaN offer a range of attractive properties, including the ability to conduct an electrical current efficiently at high temperatures and to withstand electric fields more than nine times stronger than those silicon on its own can tolerate before breaking down.

    This allows SiC chips to be nine times thinner than equivalent silicon chips. This in turn results in lower resistance to electrical current in the devices they’re used in – translating to greater efficiency.

    If you know how hot a phone or laptop charger can get, you’ve experienced inefficient power conversion. This heat is the result of silicon chips switching thousands of times per second to transform one type of electrical current, known as AC, to another, called DC.

    In the case of chargers, 230 volts (V) in AC from the wall socket is transformed into the 19V in DC that a laptop battery needs – with some energy lost as heat. SiC and GaN devices switch faster than their silicon counterparts and dissipate less energy as waste heat.

    This makes them ideal for high-performance, compact and energy-efficient charging systems. GaN-based wall chargers are now becoming common and they’re smaller, lighter and more efficient.

    Chips used in electric car charging need to withstand high voltages.
    4045 / Shutterstock

    This efficiency boost is vital for electric vehicles too, in which a large power converter changes DC electricity coming from the batteries to AC electricity, as required by the electric motor. SiC-based power converters can reduce the energy lost by this converter by over 60%, a saving that means the car’s range can be extended by up to 5%.

    Producing SiC and GaN requires complex, expensive and energy-intensive manufacturing processes. It wasn’t until the 2010s that materials like these could be produced at the scale and cost needed for mass market adoption. Silicon carbide, for instance, must be grown under extreme temperatures and pressures over the course of a week, forming a small cylindrical crystal – or boule – often less than 5cm long.

    In contrast, to source silicon for chips, metre-long silicon ingots are pulled continuously from a vat of molten silicon, known as the melt. This fundamental difference drives the cost gap: SiC chips remain around three times more expensive than their silicon counterparts, posing a challenge for widespread adoption. Nevertheless, SiC chips remain vital for specific applications.

    New industry hubs

    In March 2024, US-based Vishay Intertechnology acquired Newport Wafer Fab – one of the UK’s last major semiconductor plants – for US$177 million (£132 million). In March 2025, it announced a further £250 million investment to expand production, modernise equipment and grow the workforce at the Welsh facility. Around 400 jobs were safeguarded.

    The focus in Newport will be on compound semiconductors, beginning with SiC chips destined for electric vehicles, data centres and industrial applications. At capacity, thousands of silicon carbide wafers, or discs, will be processed every month. It is from these wafers that the chips are cut. Measuring 200mm in diameter, each wafer will yield enough SiC chips to supply more than 15 electric vehicle power converters.

    Chip manufacturing has also returned to Silicon Glen. In Lochgelly, Fife, Clas-SiC Wafer Fab was founded in 2017 and it too produces SiC chips. The processing carried out at Lochgelly is similar to that at Vishay, except that Clas-SiC operates what’s known as a foundry model, producing devices to the designs of international customers. This model separates out the design and manufacturing aspects of the chip industry.

    Silicon carbide chips are also being used in data centres.
    VL-PhotoPro/Shutterstock

    Compound semiconductors also play a crucial role in national security. The UK Ministry of Defence recently made key investments in UK semiconductors. One of these aims to secure the domestic supply of gallium arsenide and gallium nitride chips, which are critical for radar systems and fighter jets.

    World-class research in UK universities is fundamental to success stories like these. More than a decade of coordinated public investment – particularly through the 2010s – helped build globally recognised academic expertise.

    At the University of Warwick, for example, our team leads national efforts to develop the next generation of SiC devices. We are focusing on ultra-high-voltage power devices for use in the trains and ships of the future, along with the grid and in radiation-hardened power electronics for space, with funding from the UK government’s semiconductor strategy.

    As the UK government looks to drive growth through clean energy and advanced
    manufacturing, its recent support for this sector via the UK semiconductor strategy has been significant. The forthcoming industrial strategy presents a clear opportunity to build on this momentum.

    The challenge ahead is to ensure that the next generation of compound microchip technologies – developed in UK universities and labs – can grow and scale up here in the UK, rather than abroad.

    Peter Gammon works as a Professor of Power Electronic Devices at the University of Warwick, and as the Founder of PGC Consultancy Ltd. At Warwick, he receives funding from UKRI, Horizon Europe and industrial partners. This work is supported via the Rewire Innovation and Knowledge Centre.

    ref. How the UK’s microchip industry is bouncing back after a quarter of a century – https://theconversation.com/how-the-uks-microchip-industry-is-bouncing-back-after-a-quarter-of-a-century-253772

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: UK must grow more of its own wood to meet climate goals – new research

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Healey, Professor of Forest Sciences, Bangor University

    shutterstock ShaunWilkinson/Shutterstock

    Wood is often hailed as a low-carbon hero, a natural alternative to steel, concrete and plastic. It’s a vital tool in the UK’s strategy for reaching net zero. But there’s a catch – the country don’t grow nearly enough of it.

    The UK has one of the lowest levels of forest cover in Europe, with just 14% of land forested. It is also the second-largest importer of wood in the world, meeting only 20% of its wood demand from domestic sources.

    That leaves the UK not only exposed to volatile global markets, but also facing a serious challenge of “wood security”. And our new research shows the problem goes well beyond economics.

    Relying heavily on imported timber, especially from boreal forests in Scandanavia and the Baltic States, could actually undermine the carbon-cutting benefits of using wood in place of high-emissions materials.

    Boreal forests occurring in colder northerly environments grow slowly. The carbon stored in them takes decades, sometimes centuries, to recover after harvesting through the growth of the next generation of trees.

    In contrast, conifer forests in the UK’s warmer temperate climate restock carbon through regrowth more quickly after harvesting. This makes them much better suited for higher yields of sustainable wood production.

    So, how can countries such as the UK increase wood use without making the climate crisis worse? To address this, we created a new model that tracks carbon at every stage of a tree’s journey, from how it grows in the forest to how it’s harvested, transported, processed and used. This includes temporary storage of carbon in wood products, and the avoidance of having to use high-emitting materials and energy sources that would be needed in the absence of wood.

    We combined this with models of how carbon storage changes in forests under different harvesting intensities. Our analysis showed that it is possible for rising wood demand to make a positive contribution to national and global net zero targets. But that’s only if the domestic production of wood is dramatically increased in temperate countries such as the UK.

    Even a modest annual increase in demand (1.1%) would require a 50% expansion in the area of productive forest over the next 50 years. A more ambitious approach, such as doubling productive forest area and increasing tree growth rates by 33%, could boost the overall contribution of wood use to slowing global warming by 175%. But that would require huge changes in forestry practice and land use policy.

    In contrast, under a scenario of higher demand growth (2.3% per year), we found that the climate benefit of wood use is reduced. And only a doubling of forest area and a 33% increase in growth rates would be enough to deliver a meaningful contribution to slowing global warming over the next century.

    These benefits would be at risk if forest productivity is undermined by increasing incidence of pests, disease or drought as climate change progresses.

    Challenges ahead

    Our findings point to three major challenges the UK must address if wood is to play a meaningful role in its net zero strategy.

    First, the expansion of productive conifer forest in the UK has slowed to a standstill over the past 30 years. The amount of wood available for harvest is projected to fall after 2039. This trend will have to be reversed very soon to rapidly increase the area of conifer forests. This will need a rethink of how the UK balances land for forestry, farming and nature recovery.

    Second, forest management must be improved to sustain productivity under increasing stress from pests, pathogens and drought.

    Third, wood must be used more efficiently. That includes reducing waste during processing, designing products for longevity and reusing wood products as many times as possible.

    So, the UK’s net zero policy must connect the push for using more wood with a clear plan for how it will grow and manage the forests needed to supply it. At the same time, when policymakers assess the climate effects of cutting down trees, they need to look at the whole picture. That means considering not just what’s lost from the forest, but how the wood is used, how long it stores carbon and how much it replaces more polluting materials.

    This kind of joined-up, forward-looking analysis – like the one we developed in our study – is essential if wood is to play a truly sustainable role in fighting climate change.

    John Healey receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council, the Centre for Forest Protection, and the Wildlife Trusts. He is affiliated with Woodknowledge Wales, Rainforest Builder and the Institute of Chartered Foresters.

    David Styles received funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (UK) and from the Department of Environment, Climate & Communications (Ireland) for research related to this article.

    Eilidh Forster received funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (UK) for research related to this article.

    ref. UK must grow more of its own wood to meet climate goals – new research – https://theconversation.com/uk-must-grow-more-of-its-own-wood-to-meet-climate-goals-new-research-254353

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Black style and resistance: The Met Gala, dandyism and blackface in Canada

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Cheryl Thompson, Canada Research Chair, Professor in Performance, Toronto Metropolitan University

    In her groundbreaking book, Canada and the Blackface Atlantic: Performing Slavery, Conflict and Freedom, 1812-1897, Cheryl Thompson, professor of performance at Toronto Metropolitan University, maps the transnational flow of minstrel culture and racial ideologies, revealing how blackface performance — and the racism it reflects — was not strictly an American phenomenon.

    In this interview with The Conversation Canada, Thompson shares some of her ideas on performance, politics and race, including this year’s Met Gala.


    Your book uses the term ‘Blackface Atlantic.’ Can you explain what that means, and how Canada fits into that history?

    Traditionally, when we talk about Atlantic world studies, we’re usually focused on the United States, the Caribbean, maybe parts of Europe. Canada is not often considered to be part of conversation. But blackface performance/minstrelsy was actually one of the first forms of entertainment that travelled across the Atlantic. It started in the U.S., moved to Britain and then landed in Canada. That means many of the same cultural and political issues we associate with the United States — racism, segregation, white supremacy — have been part of Canada’s narrative too, from the beginning.

    Book cover of ‘Canada and the Blackface Atlantic: Performing Slavery, Conflict and Freedom, 1812-1897’
    Wilfrid Laurier University Press

    The book draws on Paul Gilroy’s concept of the “Black Atlantic.” He defined this not just as a geographic space shaped by European colonization and Black servitude and resistance, but as an ideological space, too. Gilroy articulated how Black people disidentified with western ideas of nationhood, citizenship and freedom to forge new ways of imagining their identities and futures.

    Canada and the Blackface Atlantic asks us to stop seeing Canada as a self-contained nation-state. It places Canada within an Atlantic world context where race was traded as a currency in terms of slavery but also on the theatrical stage where it was performed. On stage, “Blackness” became a way for white audiences to make sense of Black people as performing subjects without having to contend with Black people as real political agents.


    Why do you think Canada’s role in the history of blackface performance has been so overlooked?

    I think it’s partly because writing about blackface requires such a multidisciplinary understanding of different disciplines, multiple points of view, historically and geographically disparate people and places. While as an academic, I have sometimes been discouraged from positioning myself in “too many” disciplines, my training across disciplines helped me to see the throughline in the story.

    And that throughline is about race, but also the building of cities and towns, migration and immigration, visual culture and print culture, theatre and performance.

    I also believe it has been overlooked because many white Canadian academics simply do not talk about or examine issues related to race. It’s not something they are comfortable with in the context of Canada, and to research blackface requires that you confront race and white supremacy head-on.

    And because discussions of race in Canada are still taboo in some circles, blackface remains a topic that is largely ignored or minimized.

    I think my work is changing this pattern, and my book will help to open people’s minds to a topic that has long been avoided in Canadian cultural conversations. These conversations have already been happening for decades in the U.S. and the U.K. and elsewhere.


    The Met’s big show and gala this year focuses on Black Style and dandyism as powerful forms of self expression and resistance. How do you think fashion can help challenge racist narratives?

    I love that the Met is thinking about questions of race and style, because Black dandyism is so intertwined with the question of Black freedom. What shows like this do is remind the public of how Black communities have historically used expression as a means to exercise their own agency. In the absence of political agency, Black men, in particular, used style to assert their autonomy. Clothing, hair, etc., were the few sartorial elements that could not be sanctioned or denied to Black people even if other aspects of life were restricted or denied. I think at this moment these conversations are so timely given the renewed restrictions being placed on Black, racialized, LGBTQIA+ people under the Trump administration. The Black dandy says unequivocally that we’re here, and we’re showing up to be seen. It’s a powerful statement that contradicts the deficit model that is often placed onto Black bodies as being in states of lack, and disempowerment.


    What are some of the most surprising or revealing sources you uncovered in your research?

    I was truly surprised about how much of the book required me to understand American history as it intersected with Canadian history.

    For example: the songs that came out of the War of 1812 became some of the first popular songs in America. Communities in Ontario, Québec and New Brunswick were conflicted in their allegiance to the North and South during the American Civil War. There were a lot of Confederate sympathizers in Montréal and New Brunswick. All that really surprised me because that’s not history that we learn about in school.

    I was also surprised by the number of Canadians who became stars on the American minstrel stage. There was Toronto-born Colin “Cool” Burgess (1840–1905) who performed in blackface on stages across Canada, the U.S. and Britain. There was Québec-born Calixa Lavallée (1842–91), who would become best known as the composer of “Chant national” (“O Canada”), a song he wrote after performing across the U.S., and as a blackface minstrel musician for the Union Army during the Civil War. These two figures have been written about before, but authors often excused or tried to minimize their participation in minstrel shows. It’s likely because there are no pictures.

    What I’ve been surprised about most is how so much of this history has been hidden in plain sight. The book reflects my ability to make connections, explain complex narratives across time and space, and to intertwine narratives that have, before now, been kept separate. It was quite a feat!

    Cheryl Thompson receives funding from Social Science Humanities Research Council and the Canada Research Chair Program.

    ref. Black style and resistance: The Met Gala, dandyism and blackface in Canada – https://theconversation.com/black-style-and-resistance-the-met-gala-dandyism-and-blackface-in-canada-253604

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-Evening Report: Willis warns of a ‘tight’ budget to come, but NZ should be going for productivity, not austerity

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dennis Wesselbaum, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Otago

    Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images

    Finance Minister Nicola Willis has warned her 2025 “Growth Budget” will be “one of the tightest budgets in a decade”, with plans to reduce spending by billions.

    It’s clear New Zealand is following a global trend towards austerity by focusing on reducing government spending and lowering government debt.

    Complicating the economic picture for the government are Donald Trump’s tariffs and his trade war with China. In early April, financial services company J.P. Morgan Research said there was a 60% probability of the United States experiencing a recession in 2025 — with a 40% chance of a global recession.

    Despite this uncertain economic future, the idea that New Zealand’s debt-to-GDP ratio requires immediate and drastic austerity-like measures is not supported by the evidence.

    The ratio measures the government’s debt compared to its gross domestic product (GDP). Currently, New Zealand’s ratio is about 47%. This is substantially higher than before the pandemic (32% in 2019) and higher than Australia (35%).

    But it is at the lower end compared with other advanced economies. The 2023 debt-to-GDP ratio in the US was 112%, 101% in the United Kingdom, and about 50% in Canada, Ireland and South Korea.

    Rather than tightening the belt to reduce debt and increase fiscal balance, New Zealand needs to focus on boosting productivity, investing in education, building strong and resilient infrastructure and supporting health and wellbeing.

    Lowering debt and creating fiscal space are legitimate goals. But they should be viewed as a means to an end, not an end in itself.

    A necessary medicine

    Austerity is often presented as necessary medicine during an economic crisis. The logic is seemingly straightforward: reduce government spending and debt to not overstimulate the economy, create fiscal resilience for future shocks, support low and stable inflation, and signal fiscal responsibility to international markets.

    Several countries adopted austerity measures in response to high deficits following the global financial crisis.

    Greece implemented deep spending cuts, tax hikes and pension reforms under the terms of a bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund (IMF). This reduced its deficit but caused a severe economic contraction and social unrest.

    Spain similarly cut public wages, raised taxes and reformed pensions, stabilising its finances but causing persistently high unemployment.

    Italy’s austerity measures involved pension reforms and tax hikes, achieving modest fiscal improvement but sparking political instability.

    The UK focused on reducing public spending and welfare support, significantly lowering its deficit while putting pressure on public services and increasing inequality. Research found UK’s austerity measures led to hundreds of thousands of avoidable deaths.

    While in many cases austerity helped restore fiscal balance, it often came with heavy economic and social costs, particularly in terms of unemployment, growth and public welfare.

    In March, people in the United Kingdom took to the streets to protest ongoing austerity measures.
    Mike Kemp/Getty Images

    Productivity is the key

    Research indicates that debt-to-GDP ratios above about 80% tend to be associated with lower growth. But below this threshold, the ratio tends to be associated with increases in growth.

    It is clear that deficits are neither always bad for economic growth, nor that they always lead to inflation, when combined with a credible fiscal strategy to return to surpluses in the future.

    To raise the future wellbeing of all New Zealanders we need to avoid the heavy costs of austerity and rather focus on stimulating economic growth. And this comes with a price tag.

    Using debt to finance investments into capital, which in turn increases our productivity, is key to fostering economic growth. This goes hand-in-hand with targeted industrial policies, reduction in regulation, increases in government efficiency and trade liberalisation

    Importantly, public investment boosts economic growth mainly through two channels: efficiency (how much infrastructure is actually delivered for the money spent) and productivity (how well that infrastructure supports economic activity).

    Research from the IMF suggests an increase in public investment of one percentage point of GDP is associated with an increase in output of about 0.2% in the same year and 1.2% four years later.

    All-of-government focus

    What New Zealand needs is a long-term growth strategy and an all-of-government focus on lifting productivity. This must be grounded in fiscal responsibility – one that boosts government efficiency. But not at the cost of delaying high-impact investments or leaving growth opportunities on the table.

    Maintaining discipline while strategically investing in the drivers of long-term prosperity is essential for securing New Zealand’s economic future.

    The path ahead requires careful navigation, not a rush towards austerity.

    By thoughtfully balancing the need for fiscal prudence with the importance of investing in our productivity, human capital and infrastructure, we can ensure a more resilient and prosperous future for all New Zealanders.

    Dennis Wesselbaum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Willis warns of a ‘tight’ budget to come, but NZ should be going for productivity, not austerity – https://theconversation.com/willis-warns-of-a-tight-budget-to-come-but-nz-should-be-going-for-productivity-not-austerity-254689

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canada’s Conservatives, with an assist from Donald Trump, are down — but they’re far from out

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Sam Routley, PhD Candidate, Political Science, Western University

    Canada’s Liberals have, once again, risen from the dead. Their re-election with Mark Carney at the helm is a remarkable development in Canadian federal politics — the party not only managed to reverse the dire predictions of its demise but also, despite voters expressing a desire for change, retained its control of government for a rare fourth consecutive term.

    This is a crushing disappointment for the Conservative Party of Canada. Although they have so far held the Liberals to a minority government — votes are still being counted in some ridings — their continuing role as the lead opposition, albeit a bigger one, pales in comparison to the large majority government they’d been projected to form.

    Leader Pierre Poilievre even lost his own Ottawa-area seat.

    But for all this dejection, Conservatives still had a solid and promising performance. Rather than constituting a total failure, their standing is better regarded as an inability to fully close the deal.

    The Trump factor

    Conservatives won the greatest share of the national vote by any federal centre-right party since 1988, and the popular vote remains close to a virtual tie.

    The narrow margins of many Liberal gains also suggests that a Conservative minority was within the realm of possibility. For all his success, a politically inexperienced Carney so far appears to have failed to win a majority government, and may have inherited yet another fractious and unstable minority that will probably not last long.

    While it’s still too early to get a full grasp of how voters made their decisions, it appears that the nearly 25-point swing in the polls was largely due to United States President Donald Trump’s tariffs and threats against Canada.

    From the moment he came to office for a second term, Trump’s constant threats transformed the election from a fairly routine matter of anti-incumbent backlash to one focused on leadership, national unity and crisis management. Overnight, Canadian sovereignty became the top issue, and the NDP vote collapsed as most voters decided that their choice was really been two leaders.

    Divided electorate

    Carney was able to leverage his background as governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, and his short initial tenure as prime minister, to not only depict a steady hand, but to generate a rally-around-the-flag effect.

    Poilievre, in contrast, was unable to continue with the disruptive, anti-establishment tone of much of his previous rhetoric.




    Read more:
    From dog whistles to blaring horns, Poilievre makes his case


    But even while Carney, from the moment campaign started, performed better on the Trump issue than Poilievre, it was far from the only issue that mattered to voters.

    What ultimately drove voters back to the Liberals seems to be confined to largely one aspect of the population — older and more economically established Canadians.

    Many voters still prioritized domestic issues — such as the cost of living crisis, housing affordability and economic stagnation — that had once characterized the campaign. Conservatives seemed to gain support throughout the campaign from young adults, newer Canadians, blue-collar workers and some NDP defectors.

    Rather than providing Carney with a clear mandate, the results suggest Canada continues to grow increasingly divided along the lines of age, class and region. The Liberals have been able to hold onto power with the support of Canadians wanting to defend what they have, but Conservatives are gaining ground among voters who feel increasingly disenchanted with and locked out of the Canadian project they’re now being told to embrace.

    Poilievre’s future

    Poilievre has signalled his intention to stay on as Conservative leader. In the months ahead, he’ll not only need to find a way to return to Parliament via a byelection — he’ll also need to convince his party and caucus he should remain leader.

    While the party doesn’t have an automatic leadership review following elections, there are several mechanisms to challenge Poilievre’s leadership.

    There are certainly several areas where Poilievre and his team can be faulted by Conservative party members. A loss is a loss, and there have been well-publicized reports of internal discord and frustration about his campaign strategy.

    Ultimately, however, a sustained movement to push out Poilievre seems unlikely. For all his drawbacks, Poilievre has not only brought the party its greatest electoral performance in decades, but he’s generated a unique degree of energy and enthusiasm among supporters that no obvious successor seems capable of maintaining.

    The challenge now is about determining what the Conservative party, having received just above 41 per cent of the vote, needs to do in order to gain a few more percentage points.

    Sam Routley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Canada’s Conservatives, with an assist from Donald Trump, are down — but they’re far from out – https://theconversation.com/canadas-conservatives-with-an-assist-from-donald-trump-are-down-but-theyre-far-from-out-255396

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Old growth forests in eastern Canada show that the climate started changing almost 100 years ago

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Alexandre Pace, PhD Candidate in Geography, Urban and Environmental Studies, Concordia University

    Natural archives — like tree rings in old-growth forests — can provide information on climate change over time. (A. Pace), CC BY

    The effects of climate change are complex, especially on the water cycle. As we seek to better understand human-driven climate changes, long-term baselines for environmental data are essential.

    However, records of past environmental conditions are too short to give us a robust understanding of how these systems have changed over time. One solution is to look at natural archives.

    There are many natural processes that leave behind records of past environmental conditions, including tree rings.

    Trees form a ring of wood every year, and the width of that ring can have a significant relationship with climate. We can then create a model based on the time period for which there is both recorded climate data and tree-ring widths. That model can be applied to the rings that formed before climate records began to reconstruct past conditions.




    Read more:
    Old forests are critically important for slowing climate change and merit immediate protection from logging


    The challenge is to find forests with both strong climate-growth relationships and trees over a century old — substantially older than the length of climate data. This is especially difficult in southeastern Canada, where the vast majority of forests have been clear-cut.

    Two canoes ready for salmon fishing on the Sainte-Anne River in Gaspésie National park.
    (A. Pace), CC BY

    Sensitive old growth forests

    In the Appalachian Mountains of the Gaspé Peninsula, Québec, we studied a rare old-growth cedar grove tucked into the valley between the base of Mont-Albert and the Sainte-Anne River, known for its Atlantic salmon fisheries.

    The average hiker passing this eastern white cedar grove would probably not guess that some of these relatively small diameter cedars are more than 500 years old, an age that is still relatively young for the oldest species in eastern Canada.

    The strong competition for light in this closed-canopy forest causes trees here to grow very slowly. We found they grow especially slow during years where the winter snow remained on the ground late into the spring. This late snow pack effectively shortens the trees’ growing season and leads to a thinner tree ring that same year.

    We went on to sample hundreds of trees in the valley and on the slopes at sites that had never been logged. We repeatedly found a strong relationship with snow pack and a related relationship with spring river flow. With these two closely related connections, we were able to reconstruct 195 years of climate history in the region.

    Modern climate change records

    Rings measured on a cedar tree that was over 330 years old.
    (A. Pace), CC BY

    Our recent study reconstructed spring and early summer river flow from 1822 for the Sainte-Anne River, a major river in Gaspésie National Park, the second-largest provincial park in southern Québec.

    Analysis of this tree ring/snow pack/river relationship — which was previously undocumented in eastern North America — suggests that the region was affected quite early by modern climate change. A significant shift occurred in 1937, after which individual years of extremely high river flows and high snow packs declined. Newspaper reports of floods in the greater region matched the years of high flow in our reconstruction as far back as the year 1872, further validating the results.

    The reconstruction also reveals that the short river flow records for the Gaspésie mountains under-represent the region’s susceptibility to prolonged periods of drought-like conditions. Local river flow records kept since 1968 show that the region experienced an equal amount of decade-long dry springs and wet springs. However, our reconstruction suggests that during the 1822-1968 period, long bouts of dry spring climate were substantially more frequent and prolonged than wet ones.

    Conservation impacts

    The insights from this reconstruction could have implications for wildlife and hydropower. First, low water levels contribute to the decline of threatened Atlantic salmon populations.

    Second, alpine snow pack serves as a refuge for the threatened woodland caribou populations, which used to be spread across Atlantic Canada and northern New England. Today, the caribou are in sharp decline, with less than 40 remaining south of the St. Lawrence River, all within the Gaspé Peninsula.

    A female caribou with a GPS tracking monitor around her neck.
    (A. Pace), CC BY

    The primary threat to these caribou is the extensive clear-cutting of old-growth forest habitat. Younger forests provide less food for caribou and lead to an increased abundance of moose and deer, along with their predators — mainly coyotes and black bears — which also prey on caribou.

    Changing mountain snow-pack conditions add to their peril as snow pack has important effects on the health of caribou and the ability of their calves to avoid predators.

    Given this, a better understanding of the implications of reduced snow pack on caribou urgently requires further study.

    Lastly, Québec’s billion-dollar hydroelectric industry might also benefit from a better understanding of past moisture in the region, with a dam complex located a few hundred kilometres northeast of our study site.

    Documented histories

    Our study improves our understanding of past moisture patterns across the east coast of North America. It fills a large gap in climate research based on tree rings between New York and northern Québec.

    When comparing the past 200 years of these East Coast reconstructions, important climate connections arise. The comparison suggests that the complex Atlantic climate system can synchronize, leading large portions of the coast to collectively lock into periods of very wet or very dry conditions.

    This is important for water resource managers, who often rely on help from other managers in neighbouring basins, which may not be available given this common synchrony.

    The insights from the tree rings of these forests are another reminder of the value of old growth and the many services they provide. As we try to better understand the context of human-induced environmental change, our search continues for old forests with a story to tell.

    Our ongoing research includes analyzing dead cedars preserved for almost 800 years at the bottom of lakes. The resulting tree ring chronology will extend our work with trees in the region so far, helping us further examine the environmental history of our rapidly changing planet.

    Alexandre Pace receives funding from Fonds de Recherche du Québec – Nature et Technologies and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.

    Jeannine-Marie St-Jacques receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council.

    ref. Old growth forests in eastern Canada show that the climate started changing almost 100 years ago – https://theconversation.com/old-growth-forests-in-eastern-canada-show-that-the-climate-started-changing-almost-100-years-ago-253601

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Where can Black children go in summer? Black families face disparities and need equitable options

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Juliet Bushi, Lecturer, Faculty of Education, University of Windsor

    For many Black families, summer months can be a relief and a stress. The stress is because of the precariousness of summer programming in Canada.

    Typically for families with school-aged children, summer planning usually starts in February or March, when most registration begins. The logistics around finding quality summer programming can be challenging. If you are a newcomer to Canada with financial limitations, navigating the different buffet of summer camps and affordability can be daunting.

    The stress of finding a safe space for your children while also making sure that you’re not overspending and can also provide food and shelter is a constant struggle for Canadian households, including many Black and racialized parents.

    For many Black and new immigrant families with school-aged children, the summer months pose serious mental, physical and financial challenges due to the lack of support and high costs of summer programs for school-aged children. Navigating these disparities can get complicated.

    Many Black parents are left with taking risks to ensure that they keep their jobs during the summer while juggling to find a culturally relevant program and a safe place for their children to stay during work hours.

    The cost of summer programs varies from province to province. On average, day camps can range from $35 to $500 per week, and overnight camps can range from $300 to $1,000 per week for the same period. For a family with three or more children, the cost of summer programs can total over $12,000 each year and with no tax credit, this can contribute to a negative financial investment.

    The reality is that families need accessible summer programming and education support. Prioritizing funding based on community and student needs and investment in community learning centres and programs is paramount.

    Social and economic disparities

    A lack of quality, accessible and affordable options for Black families is one reason I founded Canahari Multidisciplinary Summer Program in Regina, Sask. Canahari was designed to help address what could otherwise be the growth of social, educational and economic disparities during the summer months.

    A contrast exists between parents capable of enrolling their children in frequent literacy-enhancing activities within high-quality summer programs and those from underprivileged backgrounds.

    The latter have limited access to such high-quality resources. This is evident in their children demonstrating what educators assess as being less prepared for school and less able to engage with it than their more privileged peers.

    Studies have found that a lack of summer learning negatively impacts the educational progress of children from low socioeconomic status. These impacts further widen the achievement gap. For these reasons, implementing a national education policy to mitigate differential summer learning loss is crucial for academic success and personal development.

    Inequality gaps, complicated logistics

    Factors such as transportation, work schedules, summer programming fees, program reputation, culturally responsive summer programming and affordability are major factors contributing to educational inequality gaps. Many studies have shown social and economic status and race or ethnicity contribute to the disparities in academic achievement and summertime learning.

    In the summer, children from low-income households experience declines in reading achievement, while middle- and high-income children improve. These experiences have often been overlooked or ignored, and continue to negatively impact social connectedness, mental well-being and academic success.

    Finding an affordable summer camp is one thing. Doing so while ensuring your children feel included and safe is a top concern for Black parents (and their kids).

    Academic achievement gaps and social issues

    Scholars have examined sources of inequalities in students’ academic skills for decades, with numerous studies focusing on socioeconomic status and race or ethnicity. The complexities of these disparities challenge the meaning and intent of quality education in Canada.

    Historically, education has been a powerful tool for social, political and democratic empowerment and a means for personal growth and societal progress for Black people.

    However, Eurocentric education has been a tool that reproduces inequities and has regulated or disciplined Black students in negative ways that undermine the cultural values of Black students and parents. Not only this, these systems challenge fundamental Africentric knowledge systems and moral frameworks.

    Education scholar George Dei has argued we must disrupt the myth that mainstream education is “colour blind.”

    For Black children, schools are sites for recurring racist and traumatic encounters and summer programs are no exception. New policies are needed that disrupt and are accountable for addressing anti-Black racism and acknowledge the lived experiences and struggles of Black people.

    Nationwide policy on summer programs

    Summer programming needs to be deprivatized in Canada to ensure reimagined, consistent, equitable and accessible educational programs during summer. Summer programs are now sources of revenue, and the commercialization and marketization of summer programs make it challenging for grassroots organizations to compete in the this market.

    Recent educational reforms tend to focus on student experiences in school within the academic school calendar, while neglecting the social implications of affordable, high-quality summer programming.

    Implementing a nationwide initiative (similar to the universal child-care plan) to address these challenges appears unfeasible given current political mandates.




    Read more:
    Forgotten futures? Canada urgently needs a national discussion about young people’s futures


    With many provinces struggling with larger class sizes, underfunding and a lack of support for teachers, perhaps a more critical look at providing year-round educational support for students and teachers is the most logical thing to do.

    Planning and investment needed

    A province-wide summer program network and coalition could build accessible and culturally relevant programs that prioritize early detection of learning challenges and student needs.

    This coalition could also develop a more comprehensive policy and funding mechanism to ensure access, equity, quality and deprivatization of summer programs.

    The $10-a-day plan, introduced by the Liberal government and supported by the NDP through Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care agreements with provinces and territories, was developed to improve Canada’s long-standing inadequate childcare situation. A similar policy on summer programs should be envisioned.

    Advocating for policies that prioritize universal and comprehensive accessible education year round could help ensure women and low-income families are not penalized for having children. This practice also promotes true gender equity in the workforce.

    Collaboration between the federal, provincial, municipal and local governments and researchers on data collection and evidence-based funding is crucial in implementing a comprehensive program that considers the voices of parents, students and communities.

    I intend to continue to raise awareness on this issue, with attention to how the colonial ideology of educational reform that has avoided summer programming continues reproducing educational inequalities.

    So I ask: with all the complex social and educational inequalities maintained by colonial ideologies and privatized summer programs, where can Black children go in summer?

    Juliet Bushi receives funding from the organization.
    Canada Summer Jobs – Grants to hire youths in summer
    Multicultural Council of Saskatchewan

    I founded Canahari Multidisciplinary Summer Programs, which offers culturally relevant programs.

    ref. Where can Black children go in summer? Black families face disparities and need equitable options – https://theconversation.com/where-can-black-children-go-in-summer-black-families-face-disparities-and-need-equitable-options-253013

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Children link accents with intelligence from the age of five, says study

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ella Jeffries, Lecturer in linguistics, University of Essex

    Fh Photo/Shutterstock

    From the moment we are born (and even before that, in utero), we tune into the languages around us. This includes the accents they are spoken in.

    Studies have found that infants show a preference for a familiar accent from as young as five months old. Fast forward to adulthood and it is difficult to find anyone who doesn’t have something to say about accents.

    Opinions, criticisms and stereotypes about speakers based on their accent are rife in the UK, and can lead to serious cases of accent discrimination (“accentism”).

    But what happens between infancy and adulthood to get to this point? How are we socialised into such biases – and does this happen at an earlier age than we might have thought?

    Previous research into accent stereotypes in the US – that northern accents tend to mean “smart” and southern mean “nice” – found that children do not show these adult language stereotypes until the age of nine or ten.

    These attitudes were directly expressed in the research study by children responding to the questions “who do you think is nicer?” and “who do you think is smarter?” after hearing audio clips of the different accents. But as these attitudes had been explicitly stated in the questions, there’s a risk the children may have been saying what they thought adults wanted to hear – based on what they thought to be socially acceptable, rather than their honest views.

    Less is known about unconscious bias – the attitudes listeners might not be aware they have, but which affect their actions towards speakers with different accents. My recent research with colleagues aimed to explore how children’s more unconscious, embedded and implicit attitudes might manifest.

    We focused on the language attitudes of five-year-olds in Essex. We carried out a computer-based experiment in which 27 children were first familiarised with two characters through a short narrated video describing their characteristics.

    One was labelled “clever” and could read, write and speak very well. The other was labelled “not clever” and couldn’t read, write or speak well. The narrator of the video had an American-English accent, which did not feature in the experimental part of the study.

    The children then took part in a series of matching tasks. For each task, they heard an audio clip featuring a UK accent. Straight after, a picture of either the “clever” or “not clever” character appeared in the centre of the screen. The children were asked to match this picture with one of two smaller pictures (one of the “clever” and one of the “not clever” character) on the left- and right-hand sides of the screen.

    The experiment measured their reaction time in matching the characters. A quicker response time indicated the association between accent and character was more compatible, and that they hadn’t been surprised by a mismatch between the accent they heard and the central character on the screen.

    The experiment also measured their brain using an electroencephalogram (EEG). This computed the brain’s reaction to the compatibility between the accent and the “clever” or “not clever” character presented centrally on screen.

    Standard English

    Our results found that across the measures, the five-year-olds showed a strong association between a standard southern English accent – also known as received pronunciation or the Queen’s English – and intelligence. This accords with what we know about how children will grow up to associate standard English as the “correct” form in the UK. Our research suggests that by age five, this association is already fairly well entrenched.

    A perhaps more surprising finding from our study was that for one of the brain measures, the children were also found to associate the Essex accent – their home accent – with intelligence. This contrasts with previous research which found negative attitudes towards the Essex accent among young adults in south-east England.

    A familiarity effect may have led the children to view their home accent as intelligent.
    Prostock-studio/Shutterstock

    This finding is interesting because it tells us there is perhaps an ongoing familiarity effect from five months old – children may be more positive towards the accent they find more familiar.

    The final accent that featured in our study was the Yorkshire accent. Our results found that, for one of the brain measures, the children associated the Yorkshire accent with unintelligence.

    This corresponds with the prevalent accent prejudice against northern accents in the UK. Worryingly, this finding again suggests that bias has may have already become embedded in children who are only just starting school.

    The culminating finding of our work relates to the children’s exposure to accent diversity. Children who had been exposed to a broader range of accents at home, with one or more parents from outside Essex, were more positive towards different accents overall. They were less likely to associate any of them with unintelligence.

    Children are not born judging speakers to be uneducated based on the way they speak. It is something they are socialised into believing. Our research suggests that exposure to accent variation may be key in tackling accent discrimination from a young age.

    Ella Jeffries receives funding from the British Academy/Leverhulme Trust

    ref. Children link accents with intelligence from the age of five, says study – https://theconversation.com/children-link-accents-with-intelligence-from-the-age-of-five-says-study-255175

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: What interviews with ordinary Germans living under the Nazis can teach us about our current politics

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Melissa Butcher, Professor Emeritus, Social and Cultural Geography, Royal Holloway University of London

    “Nazi” and “fascist” are words being used a lot these days; thrown about as descriptions of contemporary populist leaders or to mark out disagreement with someone. Comparisons with 1930s Germany don’t always suit the complexity of the moment we live in, but there are resonances. The choices people are having to make in the face of authoritarianism is among them.

    Darkness Over Germany, originally published in 1943, is a collection of conversations with people having to make difficult choices as the Nazi party gradually takes control of their country. The author, Amy Buller, lived and studied in Germany between 1912 and 1914, maintaining personal and professional networks there throughout her life.

    Concerned by what she saw happening in the 1930s, she established an Anglo-German discussion group. She took academics from the UK to Germany to try to understand the country’s slide into dictatorship.


    Democracy in decline? The risk and rise of authoritarianism

    Democracy is under pressure around the world in 2025. But is this part of a larger historical cycle or does it signal a deeper, more fundamental shift? Join us for a free event in central London on May 8 to discuss these important questions. Come for a panel discussion and stay for food, drinks and conversation.

    Get tickets here


    The conversations, with teachers, priests, military officers, tradesmen, civil servants, students and lawyers, point to some of the underlying economic and emotional drivers of authoritarianism. People speak of grievances related to humiliation and poverty. This is coupled with a desire for a leader who will make the pain of these things disappear.

    Hitler promised to make Germany great again, for which some expressed gratitude, including a skilled tradesman who had spent four years in the trenches of the first world war: “I would ask you not to sneer at an honest attempt to meet a terrible situation and I might add that I am profoundly grateful to the Führer for this idea, which has saved my own sons from the destruction of unemployment.”

    As Buller remarked in a lecture in 1942: “When men are drowning they will not be very particular about the type of rope that picks them up”.

    Amy Buller’s Darkness over Germany.
    Wikipedia

    Faced with fascism, ordinary Germans had to make difficult choices, described as “agony” by a teacher in Darkness Over Germany. At times, there is no good choice available. There were those who decided it was impossible to stay and chose exile. Some became less visible, keeping their heads down and letting it blow over, fatalistically choosing to do nothing because they felt there was nothing to be done.

    There was a choice to stay but openly defy the authorities, possibly resulting in detention or worse. But also a choice to stay, pay lip service to the regime, and try to undermine it where possible, to prevent regime-aligned people taking up another place. There was also the option to join the regime.

    All these decisions reflect how an individual may imagine the future, with despair for some but for others, a mercurial hope – that a new order will take away the humiliations of the past and bring economic prosperity. Or that the current moment is just an aberration and that this too will pass.

    As a young German officer noted: “I would put up with almost anything if in my lifetime this feeling of defeat could be removed from the German army. I know much is bad in what the Nazis do, but it will not last. It is the sort of thing that happens in revolutions.”

    These descriptions of personal responses to the rise of fascism in 1930s Germany echo what I heard in my research talking to voters across the US leading up to Donald Trump’s re-election. There is economic and social rupture as a result of globalisation, financial crises, the legacies of racism, secularism and an exponentially expanding digital life.

    Emotional drivers emerge, expressed as grievance, shame and humiliation. There is a sense of “losing our country” to an enemy, while precarity and crises are accessed daily in doom-laden echo chambers.

    People try to imagine a future out of this state of perma-crises, one in which they will feel better. There are compromises and trade-offs that have to be made, at times with the added stress of having to make choices on behalf of others, such as children. These are painful struggles that require, at times, holding disparate ideas simultaneously.

    In Darkness Over Germany, Buller showed it was possible for some to “hate the Nazis and love England” while still fighting for Germany, if doing so restored pride and economic security. Likewise in the US today, it is possible to find Trump abhorrent but still vote for him, as some of my interviewees did.

    The slide into authoritarianism isn’t “madness” or “evil”. It rests on millions of individual choices made every day by ordinary people: it is the banal, as philosopher Hannah Arendt pointed out in her work on violence and totalitarianism. It is also exhausting and sometimes dangerous for those living under the strain of compromise, as Buller’s empathetic conversations show.

    Darkness Over Germany is a reminder why such conversations are necessary. Not to condone or to cooperate with authoritarianism, as some recent ill-advised attempts for rapprochement between politicians, media personalities and Maga have shown in the US, but to understand the difficult choices that have to be made at times in order to provide people with alternatives.

    This article is part of a series on democracy and the risk of totalitarianism. Join us to find out more about this topic at a free event in London on May 8. Meet the author and Conversation editors, with food and drink included. Get tickets here.

    Melissa Butcher has received funding from UKRI and the ERC. She is a member of the Green Party.

    ref. What interviews with ordinary Germans living under the Nazis can teach us about our current politics – https://theconversation.com/what-interviews-with-ordinary-germans-living-under-the-nazis-can-teach-us-about-our-current-politics-255401

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: From diet to drugs: what really works for long-term weight loss

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Reiner Jumpertz-von Schwartzenberg, Professorship for Clinical Metabolism and Obesity Research, University Hospital and Medical Faculty, University of Tübingen

    voronaman/Shutterstock

    More than 2.5 billion adults worldwide are currently overweight or obese, according to estimates from the World Health Organization. This staggering number highlights a growing global health crisis. Obesity isn’t just about weight – it’s a powerful risk factor for a range of serious diseases, including type 2 diabetes, kidney disease, heart attacks, and strokes. As awareness grows, more people are asking a critical question: how can I lose weight and stay healthy in the long run?

    Obesity is a complex condition with many contributing factors. It’s not simply a result of eating too much or exercising too little. For many people, emotional and psychological stress plays a major role. Work-related pressure, financial concerns, family issues, or social anxiety can all lead to emotional eating. Others may develop obesity as a result of depression, which often disrupts both eating patterns and motivation for physical activity.

    In addition, modern lifestyles can make it easier than ever to gain weight. Many of us spend long hours sitting – at desks, in cars, or on the couch – and highly processed, calorie-dense foods are readily available and heavily marketed. This combination of behavioural, psychological, social and environmental factors creates a situation where weight gain becomes increasingly difficult to avoid and even harder to reverse.




    Read more:
    Beyond blame: The role of malfunctioning fat tissue in the disease of obesity


    Because obesity has many causes, it also requires a multifaceted solution. The most effective treatments follow a multimodal approach, where healthcare professionals – psychologists, nutritionists, and physicians – work together to support people on their weight loss journey. This team-based approach not only addresses diet and exercise but also tackles underlying emotional and mental health challenges.

    This strategy is especially effective for people with prediabetes, a condition where blood sugar levels are elevated but not yet in the diabetic range. Research has shown that lifestyle changes guided by a multidisciplinary team can significantly reduce the risk of developing full-blown diabetes

    While losing 5–7% of body weight is a good target for reducing health risks, recent research from our team in Tübingen, Germany, shows that combining weight loss with blood sugar control is even more effective. Data from a different study indicates that focusing on both aspects goes along with fewer complications from diabetes, such as kidney damage and issues affecting small blood vessels.

    Visceral fat

    Why is this combination so powerful? It turns out that people who manage to both lose weight and lower their blood sugar levels tend to reduce visceral fat – the type of fat stored around internal organs in the abdomen.




    Read more:
    Belly fat linked to higher risk of premature death, regardless of your weight


    Visceral fat is particularly dangerous because it triggers inflammation in the body, which in turn can reduce the effectiveness of insulin, the hormone that regulates blood sugar.

    Fortunately, certain lifestyle changes specifically help reduce visceral fat. For instance, regular physical activity – especially aerobic exercise – and diets rich in polyunsaturated fatty acids (found in nuts, seeds, fish and plant oils) have been shown to be especially effective. Among various eating plans, the Mediterranean diet, which emphasises whole grains, healthy fats, vegetables and lean proteins, is particularly effective.

    Combining regular exercise with a Mediterranean-style diet is not only good for weight loss but also for long-term cardiovascular and metabolic health. However, maintaining these habits over time remains a challenge for many.

    Research shows that a significant portion of those who lose weight will regain it within a few years. As weight returns, so too do associated health risks like diabetes, high blood pressure and high cholesterol. This cycle of weight loss and regain can be frustrating and emotionally taxing, leading many to seek other options for more sustainable results.

    Medication and surgery

    In recent years, GLP-1 receptor agonists – a class of medications originally developed to treat diabetes – have shown promise in promoting weight loss. These drugs mimic the hormone GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1), which is released by the gut after eating. It helps regulate appetite by promoting feelings of fullness and also encourages the release of insulin, lowering blood sugar.

    However, GLP-1-based medications are increasingly used for cosmetic weight loss, raising ethical and safety concerns. While these drugs can be effective, their long-term impact on people without obesity is still poorly understood. Side effects can include nausea, vomiting and more serious issues, so their use should always be guided by a medical professional.

    One major limitation of GLP-1 medications is that the benefits typically wear off after stopping the medication, resulting in rapid weight regain. So, long-term or even permanent use may be required to maintain health benefits.

    For people with severe obesity, particularly those with serious health complications like type 2 diabetes or heart disease, bariatric surgery can be life-changing. Surgical procedures such as gastric bypass or sleeve gastrectomy reduce the size of the stomach and, in some cases, alter gut hormone signalling. The result is significant, sustained weight loss and a reduced risk of obesity-related diseases, including a significant reduction in the risk of heart disease and premature death. Bariatric surgery isn’t for everyone, but when appropriate, it remains one of the most effective interventions available.

    Researchers are now developing new medications that combine the effects of multiple gut hormones to enhance weight loss. Some of these drugs may achieve results comparable to bariatric surgery, but most are still being tested in clinical trials.

    Winning combination

    For people beginning their weight loss journey, a combination of physical activity and a healthy diet – such as the Mediterranean diet – is still the best place to start. These changes, if sustained, can lead to long-term improvements in weight, blood sugar and overall health.

    For those with elevated blood sugar, targeting visceral fat through combined lifestyle changes and blood sugar management is especially important. And for people who struggle with obesity and related health conditions, medical therapies and surgical options offer powerful tools to support lasting change.

    Ultimately, the key to lasting weight loss and improved health lies in understanding that there is no one-size-fits-all solution. It’s about finding the right combination of support, strategy and science that works for each person.

    Reiner Jumpertz-von Schwartzenberg works for the Institute for Diabetes Research and Metabolic Diseases of the Helmholtz Center Munich at the University of Tübignen, Germany . He receives funding from the German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), the German Diabetes Society, the Helmholtz Association and the CMFI Cluster of Excellence in Tübingen. He is receiving funds from collaborating in clinical studies with Astra Zeneca, Lilly and Boehringer which all go to the University Clinic Tübingen.

    ref. From diet to drugs: what really works for long-term weight loss – https://theconversation.com/from-diet-to-drugs-what-really-works-for-long-term-weight-loss-254551

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: IBS and SIBO have overlapping symptoms – here’s what you need to know about these different digestive conditions

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Karen Wright, Lecturer in Biomedical and Life Sciences, Lancaster University

    Low-temperature electron micrograph of a cluster of E. coli bacteria, magnified 10,000 times. Each individual bacterium is oblong shaped. Photo byfkfkrErbe, digital colorization by Christopher Pooley, both of USDA, ARS, EMU., Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

    Digestive disorders can affect us all from time to time. Symptoms such as bloating and pain, often accompanied with some change in bowel habits, can be a feature of dietary changes, infection and stress. However, when these symptoms last a long time and no clear cause is found, they can be hard to diagnose and treat.

    Debilitating symptoms, such as fatigue, brain fog, nausea, bloating, gas and flatulence and diarrhoea, can be embarrassing and a struggle to manage. And access to clinical assessment and treatment may not be swift. Googling will probably land you at irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) and self-treating may not address the root cause of the symptoms and could even exacerbate the underlying condition.

    This is especially risky with small intestinal bacterial overgrowth (SIBO) because the symptoms are often similar to IBS. SIBO has recently gained more attention through social media and celebrities talking about their experiences with the condition, so what is it and how is it different to IBS?

    The clue is in the name. With SIBO, an excessive number of bacteria colonise the small intestine. In contrast, IBS is a condition with many causes. The body becomes more sensitive to pain in the stomach and intestines. Symptoms include immune system activation, abnormal gut movement, changes in gut microbes and disruptions in the gut-brain axis.

    The gut-brain axis is the communication system between your digestive system and your brain. These two are constantly sending signals to each other through nerves, hormones and even gut bacteria – like a two-way radio line that helps manage things like digestion, mood and stress.

    Both IBS and SIBO may be associated with psychological symptoms, such as anxiety, depression, stress and reduced quality of life.

    Most of your gut bacteria should live in the large intestine (the colon). The small intestine, especially the upper part (the duodenum and jejunum), has much fewer bacteria.

    With SIBO, bacteria that are supposed to stay in the large intestine migrate up into the small intestine – particularly after surgery or if the movement of food through the intestines is slow – or bacteria in the small intestine start growing excessively.

    Coliform bacteria, usually found in the colon where they help ferment carbohydrates, can enter into the small intestine and expand their numbers. The fermentation produces gas, which gets trapped and causes bloating and pain. This can lead to belching and flatulence, along with nausea and diarrhoea.

    Most of the time, stomach acid minimises bacterial entry to the small intestine, but many people suffer from acid reflux or stomach ulcers and use proton pump inhibitors (PPI). These are medicines, such as omeprazole, lansoprazole and pantoprazole, that reduce stomach acid production.

    Prolonged use of PPIs can disrupt the digestive system’s natural defences, impair gut motility and alter the microbiome – all of which increase the risk of developing SIBO.

    Slow movement of food can be the result of disrupted nerve signalling to the muscles – sometimes seen in diabetics. Also, some medicines or narcotic drugs can slow gut motility, too. Both provide opportunities for bacteria to expand in the wrong place.

    Equally, slow movement of food from the small to large intestine, from ageing or surgery, can allow bacteria to enter the wrong place – where they’re still able to expand and ferment food causing gas, bloating and discomfort.

    Symptom overlap

    Can IBS cause SIBO or vice versa? Symptom overlap can lead to misdiagnosis and diagnostic approaches differ. The gold standard for SIBO diagnosis is a rather invasive collection of a small sample from the small intestine. This sample is then cultured to identify the culprit bacteria.

    There are two simpler breath tests, which are controversial in their reliability. IBS diagnosis requires the exclusion of other diseases – such as the inflammatory bowel diseases, Crohn’s disease or ulcerative colitis – as well an analysis of the symptoms such as frequency of bowel movements and pain recurrence, combined with blood and stool tests.

    Meta-analyses of pooled data indicates 25%-36% of IBS patients have SIBO. SIBO may contribute to IBS symptoms or be a consequence of IBS-related motility issues.

    However, underlying both of these conditions is a dysregulated gut microbiome. This is when the normal balance of microorganisms in your digestive tract – mainly bacteria, but also viruses, fungi and other microbes – gets disrupted in a way that can lead to health problems, including psychological issues.

    The gut and brain are connected through a two-way communication system known as the gut-brain axis, which is influenced by the microbes in the gut. When this microbial balance is disrupted, it can contribute to mental health issues like anxiety and depression.

    Although antibiotics are used for treating SIBO, use is not desirable because it can lead to antibiotic resistance, disruption of the gut microbiome and the condition could recur once the antibiotics are stopped.

    Long-term antibiotic use can also lead to side effects like gastrointestinal issues, yeast infections and damage to the intestinal lining. What’s more, antibiotics don’t address the underlying causes of SIBO, such as motility issues or structural problems in the small intestine.

    Drugs that increase gut motility are useful to prevent SIBO recurrence and are used in IBS where there are motility symptoms. Elemental diets, which reduce available carbohydrates for bacterial fermentation, have been shown to be effective for both IBS and SIBO.

    Modifying the gut microbiome through diet, probiotics, and other approaches may provide new ways to treat and manage these conditions. Therapeutic strategies that restore the balance of gut bacteria could also help restore a healthy gut-brain connection, potentially improving mental health.

    Karen Wright is affiliated with Cannabinoid Research and Development Group UK.

    ref. IBS and SIBO have overlapping symptoms – here’s what you need to know about these different digestive conditions – https://theconversation.com/ibs-and-sibo-have-overlapping-symptoms-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-these-different-digestive-conditions-254521

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Putin’s three-day ceasefire isn’t a genuine move towards peace, but Ukraine has to play along

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Natasha Lindstaedt, Professor in the Department of Government, University of Essex

    The Russian leader, Vladmir Putin, has announced a three-day ceasefire in Ukraine to commence on May 8, coinciding with the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory in the second world war. The Kremlin says “all hostilities will be suspended” during this period and has made it clear it expects Ukraine to follow suit.

    Ukraine responded by calling for an immediate month-long ceasefire and questioned Russia’s commitment to lasting peace. In a post on social media, Ukraine’s foreign secretary, Andrii Sybiha, wrote: “If Russia truly wants peace, it must cease fire immediately … Why wait until May 8th?”

    The ceasefire announcement followed two important developments. On April 18, the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, claimed that President Donald Trump was growing impatient and was likely to abandon peace efforts within days if there was no progress.

    Trump then made a rare rebuke of Putin on social media, writing “Vladmir, STOP” after a Russian air attack on Kyiv on April 24 killed 12 people and injured more than 80 others.




    Read more:
    Why is Donald Trump failing to bring peace to Ukraine like he promised?


    A temporary ceasefire allows Putin to do just enough to keep Trump thinking he is committed to a peace deal, hoping this will lead to eventual sanctions relief. But it also has clear benefits for Russia on the battlefield.

    Many aggressors use ceasefires to regroup, rearm and improve their positioning. Analysts have warned that Russia will use the pause to reorganise in order to pursue larger territorial ambitions, particularly in southern and eastern Ukraine.

    According to Ukraine, the broken “Easter truce” helped Russian forces in the Lyman sector of Donetsk Oblast regroup and launch a large-scale infantry assault shortly after its end. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, says the Easter ceasefire was violated by Russia around 3,000 times.

    While Trump appears frustrated by these recent developments, he has remained committed to maintaining a solid relationship with Putin. And in spite of the fact that only 2% of Americans are sympathetic to Russia, Trump has done little to hide his admiration for the Russian leader.

    Bloomberg news examined more than 300 of Trump’s public comments and over 3,000 social media posts since August 2024 and found that Trump has been echoing Russian talking points. The latest evidence of this occurred just days ago.

    When asked by a journalist on April 25 about what concessions Putin has made in the negotiation process, Trump claimed his Russian counterpart was making a “pretty big concession” by not taking over all of Ukraine.

    And while most western leaders condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Trump referred to it initially as “genius” and “savvy”.

    Trump not only respects Putin but sees their relationship as mutually beneficial. Putin has enticed Trump with potential investment opportunities in Russia, such as a Trump Tower project in Russia, and has supported his administration’s desire to take over Greenland.

    Though Putin occasionally flatters Trump, this is mostly to manipulate him. It was easy to see through Putin’s intentions with his commissioning of a laudatory portrait of Trump in the aftermath of his assassination attempt, standing triumphantly with the Statue of Liberty and American flag in the background. But, apparently, Trump was touched by it.

    This flattery seems to be working. Trump has recently announced that he supported Putin’s claims on Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014, representing a huge departure from decades of US foreign policy.

    By doing so, Trump is reneging on the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, where the US committed to support Ukraine’s sovereignty. This constitutes a breach of international law and will also make peace in Ukraine harder to achieve.

    The recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea is considered a red line for Ukraine and would be politically unpopular. Zelensky has made it clear that Crimea belongs to Ukraine, and that Russian annexation violates Ukraine’s current constitution. The constitution cannot be changed when the country is at war and under martial law.

    Ukraine’s limited options

    In spite of the unfavourable terms of any looming peace agreement, Zelensky has little choice at this point but to support a ceasefire. Nearly 90% of Ukrainians polled have faced stress due to the war and another poll, published in March, showed that 77% of Ukrainians back a ceasefire.




    Read more:
    Are Ukrainians ready for ceasefire and concessions? Here’s what the polls say


    The other issue is that Zelensky can no longer count on the US. And research from 2023 shows that for parties that have lost international support, moving towards a ceasefire is much more likely.

    With the US making clear that long-term support for Ukraine is not guaranteed, and Trump not approving a single military aid package since taking office, Zelensky has few options but to support a ceasefire agreement.

    Ceasefires are fairly common occurrences in conflict – over 230 ceasefires have taken place since 1990. But they are frequently broken. Russia in particular, has not been the most trustworthy partner in peace. According to Zelensky, Putin has broken 25 peace agreements over the past decade.

    This doesn’t leave one with much confidence that the latest ceasefire is a genuine move towards peace for Putin, or that the ceasefire will lead to anything more substantial.

    With Trump impatient to get a deal done rather than address the root cause of the conflict (Russia’s imperial ambitions), Russia will continue to manipulate the peace process and block future security guarantees for Ukraine.

    Putin is an expert at committing to agreements that he will renege on. By doing so, he can exact more concessions in the process, all the while blaming Ukraine for the breakdown in peace.

    Natasha Lindstaedt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Putin’s three-day ceasefire isn’t a genuine move towards peace, but Ukraine has to play along – https://theconversation.com/putins-three-day-ceasefire-isnt-a-genuine-move-towards-peace-but-ukraine-has-to-play-along-255463

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: What Trump’s first 100 days mean for America’s women

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amy Tatum, Lecturer in Communication and Media, Bournemouth University

    At a rally in November 2024, Donald Trump told the women of America that whether they “like it or not, I’m going to protect them”. And in his first 100 days as president, Trump has taken his role in a direction that leans into the most traditional form of patriarchy – a protector who knows what is best for women despite their demands to the contrary.

    In his leadership of the Republican party and his administration – and, crucially, in the executive orders he has issued – Trump has often tried to suggest women are at the forefront of his agenda. But rather than protecting women’s interests, these orders are setting back their rights at an alarming rate.

    On his first day back in the White House, the government website offering reproductive health information was taken offline. Since then, the Department of Health and Human Services has removed all mention of abortion protection policies and the Department of Justice has dropped the Biden administration’s lawsuit against Idaho, over its near-total abortion ban.



    How is Donald Trump’s presidency shaping up after 100 days? Here’s what the experts think. If you like what you see, sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter.


    The Trump administration has also asked to join the oral arguments currently being heard by the US Supreme Court that seek to prevent Medicaid funding for medical services offered by Planned Parenthood in the state of South Carolina.

    Such changes underline Trump’s stance on reproductive rights and suggest potential support for further legislation or legal battles aimed at limiting women’s access to such services.

    A Gallup poll found that in 2024, 63% of women in the US considered themselves pro-choice. So the Trump administration’s stance not only shows it is not listening to women; it signals that the government wants to restrict women’s agency for making their own reproductive decisions. This reinforces the patriarchal role taken by Trump and his administration.

    Limiting women’s democratic rights

    On March 25, Trump issued an executive order on voting registration. This was followed, a week later, by the House of Representatives vote on what is known as the “Save Act” (the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act). This legislation is aimed at limiting voter fraud – but has largely been seen as a way to restrict people’s ability to register to vote.

    The act, if passed by the Senate, will change the documentation that is required from a driving licence to either a birth certificate or passport. This is likely to have a detrimental effect on many women’s access to registration.

    In the US, 84% of women who marry men change their surname to that of their husband, meaning their name does not match that on their birth certificate. And it is estimated that 146 million US citizens do not hold valid passports – so many women wishing to vote may not have identification that would give them eligibility under this act.

    The draft law does not, at present, set out how married women would be able to circumvent this. The legislation has been criticised by commentators for its lack of protection for women voters, and has been seen as a way to disenfranchise and remove the rights of many women – effectively removing them from public affairs by denying their democratic rights.

    Attacking transgender rights

    Trump’s mission to “protect women” has extended to a concerted attack on gender non-conforming people. In his first day in the Oval Office, Trump signed executive order 14168 entitled: “Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government.”

    The wording of the title of this executive order focuses on the defence of women through a biological lens. But what it really does is weaken legal protections for trans, intersex and non-binary people by removing recognition of such identities in federal government policy and institutions. It also has the potential to limit these groups’ access to healthcare, leisure spaces, identity documents and education.

    A week later, the president followed this up with an executive order restricting gender care for under-19s, meaning that insurance run by the federal government could not be used to cover treatments or gender transitions.

    The first 100 days of Trump’s second term have suggested an aggressive stance towards eroding the rights of women and gender non-conforming people that has been couched in the idea of “protecting women”. In fact, limiting access to reproductive healthcare, restricting the rights of trans, intersex and non-binary people, and potentially disenfranchising large numbers of women demonstrates a lack of protection and a diminishing of their voices.

    Trump is portraying himself as the ultimate patriarch – one who knows best, and who upholds the power and privilege of men like himself.

    Amy Tatum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. What Trump’s first 100 days mean for America’s women – https://theconversation.com/what-trumps-first-100-days-mean-for-americas-women-255269

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sinners: how real stories of Irish and Choctaw oppression inform the film

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Rachel Stuart, Senior Lecturer in Criminology and Deviant Identities, Brunel University of London

    Warning: this article contains minor spoilers for Sinners.

    Sinners is a vampire film set in Jim Crow-era Mississippi, a time of harsh segregation and racial injustice. The vampire is Irishman Remmick (Jack O’Connell), who is drawn to the blues music played at the Juke Joint, a club set up by identical gangster twins, Smoke and Stack (both played by Michael B. Jordan).

    We first encounter Remmick as he is being chased by a band of indigenous Choctaw vampire hunters, who corner him in the shack of a couple who happen to be part of the Ku Klux Klan. The Choctaw’s claim that Remmick is not who he appears to be falls on deaf ears and the couple soon become Remmick’s first victims.

    Remmick is soon drawn to the Juke Joint, where the music of blues guitarist Sammy “Preacher Boy” Moore (Miles Caton) is said to reach both ancestors and future generations. Keen to feast on the club’s patrons, Remmick tries to draw them outside by singing an Irish ballad from the mid-19th century, The Rocky Road to Dublin.


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    The Rocky Road to Dublin tells the story of an Irish man leaving his hometown of Tuam to travel to Liverpool. Tuam was the location of a Catholic mother and baby home, where the bodies of over 700 babies were found in 2015.

    Remmick uses the song to invite the Black Juke Joint patrons to join him and the others he has turned into vampires, offering them the chance to escape Jim Crow Mississippi.

    If Remmick was truly offering freedom, however, he would have tried to tempt them with a song of liberation, such as Oro Se Do Bheatha ‘Bhaile, which was the rebel song sung by the republican army as they overthrew the oppression of the English during the Easter Rising in 1916.

    Instead, the music he chooses, although catchy, is a story of exchanging one form of suffering (life in Tuam during the height of English oppression) for another – life on the English mainland where the ballad tells of victimisation and violence.

    The trailer for Sinners.

    The Choctaw’s hunting of Remmick is particularly interesting. The real Choctaw sent money to the starving Irish during the English-induced famine of the 1840s, when they were themselves experiencing genocide.

    Given that the Choctaw are historical allies of the Irish, by identifying that Remmick is not who he seems, they highlight that he does not represent the Irish spirit of resistance. Instead, he represents the spirit of oppression and his choice of music underscores this.

    Choice of setting

    Sinners is set in the early 1930s, a decade after the liberation of Ireland and five years after the founding of the Tuam mother and baby home. Perhaps Remmick needed new feeding grounds since Ireland was finally throwing off the oppression of the English. Where better than the deep south of the Jim Crow era to find oppression and those desperate to escape it?

    Remmick claims to be attracted to the music of the oppressed but when hoodoo healer Annie (Wunmi Mosaku) is killed by Stack before she can be turned into a vampire, we see his true intent. Remmick is angered by her death because although it appears it is the music he is drawn to, in reality it is Annie’s strength he desires.

    Annie, who is steeped in Black culture and can see the vampire’s real intentions, symbolises the way many Black women can resist a social system that is both capitalist and racist. This system doesn’t allow them to ignore the dangers it brings.

    It is the strength and energy of Africa embodied in Annie’s traditional beliefs that Remmick truly seeks to possess, and he is distraught when she dies without being turned into a vampire.

    Unlike Preacher Boy’s family, Annie has resisted the colonisation of her spirituality by the Christian church. Preacher Boy’s father encourages him to stop playing the blues because of its ability to call the devil. Through her ancestral practices however, Annie is able to recognise and resist the temptations of escape that Remmick offers.

    Sinners is an interesting work by filmmaker Ryan Coogler that leaves a trail of crumbs for future instalments. The Choctaw vampire hunters are only on screen for two minutes, but they represent an interesting aside that needs to be explored in terms of the oppressed reaching out to each other against colonialism.

    Annie, immersed in her African spirituality, resists oppression by calling on the strength of ancestors. It’s a powerful reminder that when we know where we come from it is hard to sell us a story of redemption that is ultimately another form of oppression.

    Rachel Stuart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Sinners: how real stories of Irish and Choctaw oppression inform the film – https://theconversation.com/sinners-how-real-stories-of-irish-and-choctaw-oppression-inform-the-film-255291

    MIL OSI – Global Reports