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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why predicting battery performance is like forecasting traffic − and how researchers are making progress

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Emmanuel Olugbade, Ph.D. Candidate in Mechanical Engineering, Missouri University of Science and Technology

    How much charge is left? It can be hard to know for sure. Olemedia/E+ via Getty Images

    Lithium-ion batteries are quietly powering large parts of the world, including electric vehicles and smartphones. They have revolutionized how people store and use energy. But as these batteries become more central to daily life, they bring more attention to the challenges of managing them and the energy they store safely, efficiently and intelligently.

    I’m a mechanical engineer who studies these nearly ubiquitous batteries. They have been around for decades, yet researchers like me are still trying to fully understand how these batteries behave – especially when they are working hard.

    Batteries may seem simple, but they are as complicated as the real-world uses people devise for them.

    The big picture

    At their core, lithium-ion batteries rely on the movement of charged particles, called ions, of the element lithium between two electric poles, or electrodes. The lithium ions move from the positive electrode to the negative one through a conductive substance called an electrolyte, which can be a solid or a liquid.

    The basics of how a lithium-ion battery works.

    How much energy these batteries store and how well they work depends on a tangle of factors, including the temperature, physical structure of the battery and how the materials age over time.

    Around the world, researchers are trying to answer questions about each of these factors individually and in concert with each other. Some research focuses on improving lifespan and calculating how batteries degrade over time. Other projects are tackling safety under extreme conditions, such as fast-charging use in extreme climates – either hot or cold. Many are exploring entirely new materials that could make batteries cheaper, longer-lasting or safer. And a significant group – including me – are working with computer simulations to improve real-time battery monitoring.

    Real‑time monitoring in your electric vehicle’s battery system functions like a health check: It tracks voltage, current and temperature to estimate how much energy remains so you won’t be stranded with a dead battery.

    But it’s difficult to precisely measure how well each of the energy cells within the battery is performing as they age or as the weather changes from cold in winter to hotter in summer. So the battery management system uses a computer simulation to estimate those factors. When combined with real-time monitoring, the system can prevent overusing the battery, balance charging speed with long-term health, avoid power failures and keep performance high. But there are a lot of variables.

    The traffic analogy

    One of the best ways to understand this challenge is to think about city traffic.

    Let’s say you want to drive across town and need to determine whether your car has enough charge to travel the best route. If your navigation simulator accounted for every stoplight, every construction zone and every vehicle on the road, it would give you a very accurate answer. But it might take an hour to run, by which time the circumstances would have changed and the answer would likely be wrong. That’s not helpful if you’re trying to make a decision right now.

    A simpler model might assume that every road is clear and every car is moving at the speed limit. That simulation delivers a result instantly – but its results are very inaccurate when traffic is heavy or a road is closed. It doesn’t capture the reality of rush hour.

    While you’re driving, the battery management system would do a similar set of calculations to see how much charge is available for the rest of the trip. It would look at the battery’s temperature, how old it is and how much energy the car is asking for, like when going up a steep hill or accelerating quickly to keep up with other cars. But like the navigation simulations, it has to strike a balance between being extremely accurate and giving you useful information before your battery runs out in the middle of your trip.

    The most accurate models, which simulate every chemical reaction inside the battery, are too slow for real-time use. The faster models simplify things so much that they miss key behaviors – especially under stress, such as fast charging or sudden bursts of energy use.

    Managing the flow of electrons to and from a battery is as complicated as managing the flow of traffic on local streets.
    AP Photo/Julio Cortez

    How researchers are bridging the gap

    This trade-off between speed and accuracy is at the heart of battery modeling research today. Scientists and engineers are exploring many ways to solve it.

    Some are rewriting modeling software to make the physics calculations more efficient, reducing complexity without losing the key details. Others, like me, are turning to machine learning – training computers to recognize patterns in data and make fast, accurate predictions without having to solve every underlying equation.

    In my recent work, I used a high-accuracy battery simulator – one of the ones that’s really accurate but very slow – to generate a massive amount of data about how a battery functions when charging and discharging. I used that data to train a machine learning algorithm called XGBoost, which is particularly good at finding patterns in data.

    Then I used software to pair the XGBoost system with a simple, fast-running battery model that captures the basic physics but can miss finer details. The simpler model puts out an initial set of results, and the XGBoost element fine-tunes those to make corrections on the fly, especially when the battery is under strain.

    The result is a hybrid model that is able to respond both quickly and accurately to changes in driving conditions. A driver who floors the accelerator with just the simple model wouldn’t get enough energy; a more detailed model would give the right amount of energy only after it finished all its calculations. My hybrid model delivers a rapid boost of energy without delays.

    Other teams are working on similar hybrid approaches, blending physics and artificial intelligence in creative ways. Some are even building digital twins – real-time virtual replicas of physical batteries – to offer sophisticated simulations that update constantly as conditions change.

    Battery storage pods like these in Arizona can store electricity between when it is generated and when it is needed.
    AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

    What’s next

    Battery research is moving quickly, and the field is already seeing signs of change. Models are becoming more reliable across a wider range of conditions. Engineers are using real-time monitoring to extend battery life, prevent overheating and improve energy efficiency. Machine learning lets researchers train battery management systems to optimize performance for specific applications, such as high power demands in electric vehicles, daily cycles of home electricity use, short power bursts for drones, or long-duration requirements for building-scale battery systems.

    And there’s more to come: Researchers are working to include other important factors into their battery models, such as heat generation and mechanical stress.

    Some teams are taking hybrid models and compiling their software into lightweight code that runs on microcontrollers inside battery hardware. In practice, that means each battery pack carries its own brain on-board, calculating state-of-charge, estimating aging and tracking thermal or mechanical stress in near-real time. By embedding the model in the device’s electronics, the pack can autonomously adjust its charging and discharging strategy on the fly, making every battery smarter, safer and more efficient.

    As the energy landscape evolves – with more electric vehicles on the road, more renewable energy sources feeding into the grid, and more people relying on batteries in daily life – the ability to understand what a battery is doing in real time becomes more critical than ever.

    Emmanuel Olugbade receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. Why predicting battery performance is like forecasting traffic − and how researchers are making progress – https://theconversation.com/why-predicting-battery-performance-is-like-forecasting-traffic-and-how-researchers-are-making-progress-253572

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence’ − an astronomer explains how much evidence scientists need to claim discoveries like extraterrestrial life

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Chris Impey, University Distinguished Professor of Astronomy, University of Arizona

    The universe is filled with countless galaxies, stars and planets. Astronomers may find life one day, but they will need extraordinary proof. ESA/Euclid/Euclid Consortium/NASA, image processing by J.-C. Cuillandre (CEA Paris-Saclay), G. Anselmi

    The detection of life beyond Earth would be one of the most profound discoveries in the history of science. The Milky Way galaxy alone hosts hundreds of millions of potentially habitable planets. Astronomers are using powerful space telescopes to look for molecular indicators of biology in the atmospheres of the most Earth-like of these planets.

    But so far, no solid evidence of life has ever been found beyond the Earth. A paper published in April 2025 claimed to detect a signature of life in the atmosphere of the planet K2-18b. And while this discovery is intriguing, most astronomers – including the paper’s authors – aren’t ready to claim that it means extraterrestrial life exists. A detection of life would be a remarkable development.

    The astronomer Carl Sagan used the phrase, “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” in regard to searching for alien life. It conveys the idea that there should be a high bar for evidence to support a remarkable claim.

    I’m an astronomer who has written a book about astrobiology. Over my career, I’ve seen some compelling scientific discoveries. But to reach this threshold of finding life beyond Earth, a result needs to fit several important criteria.

    When is a result important and reliable?

    There are three criteria for a scientific result to represent a true discovery and not be subject to uncertainty and doubt. How does the claim of life on K2-18b measure up?

    First, the experiment needs to measure a meaningful and important quantity. Researchers observed K2-18b’s atmosphere with the James Webb Space Telescope and saw a spectral feature that they identified as dimethyl sulfide.

    On Earth, dimethyl sulfide is associated with biology, in particular bacteria and plankton in the oceans. However, it can also arise by other means, so this single molecule is not conclusive proof of life.

    Second, the detection needs to be strong. Every detector has some noise from the random motion of electrons. The signal should be strong enough to have a low probability of arising by chance from this noise.

    The K2-18b detection has a significance of 3-sigma, which means it has a 0.3% probability of arising by chance.

    That sounds low, but most scientists would consider that a weak detection. There are many molecules that could create a feature in the same spectral range.

    The “gold standard” for scientific detection is 5-sigma, which means the probability of the finding happening by chance is less than 0.00006%. For example, physicists at CERN gathered data patiently for two years until they had a 5-sigma detection of the Higgs boson particle, leading to a Nobel Prize one year later in 2013.

    The announcement of the discovery of the Higgs boson took decades from the time Peter Higgs first predicted the existence of the particle. Scientists, such as Joe Incandela shown here, waited until they’d reached that 5-sigma level to say, ‘I think we have it.’

    Third, a result needs to be repeatable. Results are considered reliable when they’ve been repeated – ideally corroborated by other investigators or confirmed using a different instrument. For K2-18b, this might mean detecting other molecules that indicate biology, such as oxygen in the planet’s atmosphere. Without more and better data, most researchers are viewing the claim of life on K2-18b with skepticism.

    Claims of life on Mars

    In the past, some scientists have claimed to have found life much closer to home, on the planet Mars.

    Over a century ago, retired Boston merchant turned astronomer Percival Lowell claimed that linear features he saw on the surface of Mars were canals, constructed by a dying civilization to transport water from the poles to the equator. Artificial waterways on Mars would certainly have been a major discovery, but this example failed the other two criteria: strong evidence and repeatability.

    Lowell was misled by his visual observations, and he was engaging in wishful thinking. No other astronomers could confirm his findings.

    Mars, as taken by the OSIRIS instrument on the ESA Rosetta spacecraft during its February 2007 flyby of the planet and adjusted to show color.
    ESA & MPS for OSIRIS Team MPS/UPD/LAM/IAA/RSSD/INTA/UPM/DASP/IDA, CC BY-SA

    In 1996, NASA held a press conference where a team of scientists presented evidence for biology in the Martian meteorite ALH 84001. Their evidence included an evocative image that seemed to show microfossils in the meteorite.

    However, scientists have come up with explanations for the meteorite’s unusual features that do not involve biology. That extraordinary claim has dissipated.

    More recently, astronomers detected low levels of methane in the atmosphere of Mars. Like dimethyl sulfide and oxygen, methane on Earth is made primarily – but not exclusively – by life. Different spacecraft and rovers on the Martian surface have returned conflicting results, where a detection with one spacecraft was not confirmed by another.

    The low level and variability of methane on Mars is still a mystery. And in the absence of definitive evidence that this very low level of methane has a biological origin, nobody is claiming definitive evidence of life on Mars.

    Claims of advanced civilizations

    Detecting microbial life on Mars or an exoplanet would be dramatic, but the discovery of extraterrestrial civilizations would be truly spectacular.

    The search for extraterrestrial intelligence, or SETI, has been underway for 75 years. No messages have ever been received, but in 1977 a radio telescope in Ohio detected a strong signal that lasted only for a minute.

    This signal was so unusual that an astronomer working at the telescope wrote “Wow!” on the printout, giving the signal its name. Unfortunately, nothing like it has since been detected from that region of the sky, so the Wow! Signal fails the test of repeatability.

    ‘Oumuamua is the first object passing through the solar system that astronomers have identified as having interstellar origins.
    European Southern Observatory/M. Kornmesser

    In 2017, a rocky, cigar-shaped object called ‘Oumuamua was the first known interstellar object to visit the solar system. ‘Oumuamua’s strange shape and trajectory led Harvard astronomer Avi Loeb to argue that it was an alien artifact. However, the object has already left the solar system, so there’s no chance for astronomers to observe it again. And some researchers have gathered evidence suggesting that it’s just a comet.

    While many scientists think we aren’t alone, given the enormous amount of habitable real estate beyond Earth, no detection has cleared the threshold enunciated by Carl Sagan.

    Claims about the universe

    These same criteria apply to research about the entire universe. One particular concern in cosmology is the fact that, unlike the case of planets, there is only one universe to study.

    A cautionary tale comes from attempts to show that the universe went through a period of extremely rapid expansion a fraction of a second after the Big Bang. Cosmologists call this event inflation, and it is invoked to explain why the universe is now smooth and flat.

    In 2014, astronomers claimed to have found evidence for inflation in a subtle signal from microwaves left over after the Big Bang. Within a year, however, the team retracted the result because the signal had a mundane explanation: They had confused dust in our galaxy with a signature of inflation.

    On the other hand, the discovery of the universe’s acceleration shows the success of the scientific method. In 1929, astronomer Edwin Hubble found that the universe was expanding. Then, in 1998, evidence emerged that this cosmic expansion is accelerating. Physicists were startled by this result.

    Two research groups used supernovae to separately trace the expansion. In a friendly rivalry, they used different sets of supernovae but got the same result. Independent corroboration increased their confidence that the universe was accelerating. They called the force behind this accelerating expansion dark energy and received a Nobel Prize in 2011 for its discovery.

    On scales large and small, astronomers try to set a high bar of evidence before claiming a discovery.

    Chris Impey receives funding from the Natonal Science Foundation and the Howard Hughes Medical Institute.

    – ref. ‘Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence’ − an astronomer explains how much evidence scientists need to claim discoveries like extraterrestrial life – https://theconversation.com/extraordinary-claims-require-extraordinary-evidence-an-astronomer-explains-how-much-evidence-scientists-need-to-claim-discoveries-like-extraterrestrial-life-254914

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘I were but little happy, if I could say how much’: Shakespeare’s insights on happiness have held up for more than 400 years

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Cora Fox, Associate Professor of English and Health Humanities, Arizona State University

    Joanna Vanderham as Desdemona and Hugh Quarshie as the title character in a Royal Shakespeare Company production of ‘Othello.’ Robbie Jack/Corbis via Getty Images

    What is “happiness” – and who gets to be happy?

    Since 2012, the World Happiness Report has measured and compared data from 167 countries. The United States currently ranks 24th, between the U.K. and Belize – its lowest position since the report was first issued. But the 2025 edition – released on March 20, the United Nations’ annual “International Day of Happiness” – starts off not with numbers, but with Shakespeare.

    “In this year’s issue, we focus on the impact of caring and sharing on people’s happiness,” the authors explain. “Like ‘mercy’ in Shakespeare’s ‘Merchant of Venice,’ caring is ‘twice-blessed’ – it blesses those who give and those who receive.”

    Shakespeare’s plays offer many reflections on happiness itself. They are a record of how people in early modern England experienced and thought about joy and satisfaction, and they offer a complex look at just how happiness, like mercy, lives in relationships and the caring exchanges between people.

    Contrary to how we might think about happiness in our everyday lives, it is more than the surge of positive feelings after a great meal, or a workout, or even a great date. The experience of emotions is grounded in both the body and the mind, influenced by human physiology and culture in ways that change depending on time and place. What makes a person happy, therefore, depends on who that person is, as well as where and when they belong – or don’t belong.

    Happiness has a history. I study emotions and early modern literature, so I spend a lot of my time thinking about what Shakespeare has to say about what makes people happy, in his own time and in our own. And also, of course, what makes people unhappy.

    From fortune to joy

    Shakespeare’s birthplace in Stratford-upon-Avon, England.
    Tony Hisgett/Flickr via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    “Happiness” derives from the Old Norse word “hap,” which meant “fortune” or “luck,” as historians Phil Withington and Darrin McMahon explain. This earlier sense is found throughout Shakespeare’s works. Today, it survives in the modern word “happenstance” and the expression that something is a “happy accident.”

    But in modern English usage, “happy” as “fortunate” has been almost entirely replaced by a notion of happiness as “joy,” or the more long-term sense of life satisfaction called “well-being.” The term “well-being,” in fact, was introduced into English from the Italian “benessere” around the time of Shakespeare’s birth.

    The word and the concept of happiness were transforming during Shakespeare’s lifetime, and his use of the word in his plays mingles both senses: “fortunate” and “joyful.” That transitional ambiguity emphasizes happiness’ origins in ideas about luck and fate, and it reminds readers and playgoers that happiness is a contingent, fragile thing – something not just individuals, but societies need to carefully cultivate and support.

    For instance, early in “Othello,” the Venetian senator Brabantio describes his daughter Desdemona as “tender, fair, and happy / So opposite to marriage that she shunned / The wealthy, curled darlings of our nation.” Before she elopes with Othello she is “happy” in the sense of “fortunate,” due to her privileged position on the marriage market.

    Later in the same play, though, Othello reunites with his new wife in Cyprus and describes his feelings of joy using this same term:

    …If it were now to die,
    ‘Twere now to be most happy, for I fear
    My soul hath her content so absolute
    That not another comfort like to this
    Succeeds in unknown fate.

    Desdemona responds,

    The heavens forbid
    But that our loves and comforts should increase
    Even as our days do grow!

    They both understand “happy” to mean not just lucky, but “content” and “comfortable,” a more modern understanding. But they also recognize that their comforts depend on “the heavens,” and that happiness is enabled by being fortunate.

    “Othello” is a tragedy, so in the end, the couple will not prove “happy” in either sense. The foreign general is tricked into believing his young wife has been unfaithful. He murders her, then takes his own life.

    The seeds of jealousy are planted and expertly exploited by Othello’s subordinate, Iago, who catalyzes the racial prejudice and misogyny underlying Venetian values to enact his sinister and cruel revenge.

    James Earl Jones playing the title role and Jill Clayburgh as Desdemona in a 1971 production of ‘Othello.’
    Kathleen Ballard/Los Angeles Times/UCLA Library via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Happy insiders and outsiders

    “Othello” sheds light on happiness’s history – but also on its politics.

    While happiness is often upheld as a common good, it is also dependent on cultural forces that make it harder for some individuals to experience. Shared cultural fantasies about happiness tend to create what theorist Sara Ahmed calls “affect aliens”: individuals who, by nature of who they are and how they are treated, experience a disconnect between what their culture conditions them to think should make them happy and their disappointment or exclusion from those positive feelings. Othello, for example, rightly worries that he is somehow foreign to the domestic happiness Desdemona describes, excluded from the joy of Venetian marriage. It turns out he is right.

    Because Othello is foreign and Black and Desdemona is Venetian and white, their marriage does not conform to their society’s expectations for happiness, and that makes them vulnerable to Iago’s deceit.

    Similarly, “The Merchant of Venice” examines the potential for happiness to include or exclude, to build or break communities. Take the quote about mercy that opens the World Happiness Report.

    The phrase appears in a famous courtroom scene, as Portia attempts to persuade a Jewish lender, Shylock, to take pity on Antonio, a Christian man who cannot pay his debts. In their contract, Shylock has stipulated that if Antonio defaults on the loan, the fee will be a “pound of flesh.”

    “The quality of mercy is not strained,” Portia lectures him; it is “twice-blessed,” benefiting both giver and receiver.

    It’s a powerful attempt to save Antonio’s life. But it is also hypocritical: Those cultural norms of caring and mercy seem to apply only to other Christians in the play, and not the Jewish people living alongside them in Venice. In that same scene, Shylock reminds his audience that Antonio and the other Venetians in the room have spit on him and called him a dog. He famously asks why Jewish Venetians are not treated as equal human beings: “If you prick us, do we not bleed?”

    Actor Henry Irving as Shylock in a late 19th-century performance of ‘The Merchant of Venice.’
    Lock & Whitfield/Folger Shakespeare Library via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Shakespeare’s plays repeatedly make the point that the unjust distribution of rights and care among various social groups – Christians and Jews, men and women, citizens and foreigners – challenges the happy effects of benevolence.

    Those social factors are sometimes overlooked in cultures like the U.S., where contemporary notions of happiness are marketed by wellness gurus, influencers and cosmetic companies. Shakespeare’s plays reveal both how happiness is built through communities of care and how it can be weaponized to destroy individuals and the fabric of the community.

    There are obvious victims of prejudice and abuse in Shakespeare’s plays, but he does not just emphasize their individual tragedies. Instead, the plays record how certain values that promote inequality poison relationships that could otherwise support happy networks of family and friends.

    Systems of support

    Pretty much all objective research points to the fact that long-term happiness depends on community, connections and social support: having systems in place to weather what life throws at us.

    And according to both the World Happiness Report and Shakespeare, contentment isn’t just about the actual support you receive but your expectations about people’s willingness to help you. Societies with high levels of trust, like Finland and the Netherlands, tend to be happier – and to have more evenly distributed levels of happiness in their populations.

    Shakespeare’s plays offer blueprints for trust in happy communities. They also offer warnings about the costs of cultural fantasies about happiness that make it more possible for some, but not for all.

    Cora Fox has received funding from an NEH grant for activities not directly related to this research.

    – ref. ‘I were but little happy, if I could say how much’: Shakespeare’s insights on happiness have held up for more than 400 years – https://theconversation.com/i-were-but-little-happy-if-i-could-say-how-much-shakespeares-insights-on-happiness-have-held-up-for-more-than-400-years-198583

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s ‘Garden of American Heroes’ is a monument to celebrity and achievement – paid for with history funding that benefits everyday Americans

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jennifer Tucker, Professor of History, Wesleyan University

    Donald Trump speaks in front of a wax statue of John Wayne at the John Wayne Museum in Winterset, Iowa, during the 2016 GOP primaries. Al Drago/CQ Roll Call via Getty Images

    Donald Trump first came up with his plan for a “National Garden of American Heroes” at the end of his first term, before President Joe Biden quietly tabled it upon replacing Trump in the White House.

    Now, with Trump back in the Oval Office – and with the country’s 250th anniversary fast approaching – the project is back. The National Endowment for the Humanities is seeking to commission 250 statues of famous Americans from a predetermined list, to be displayed at a location yet to be determined.

    It isn’t clear who compiled the list of 250 to be honored. It includes names that are largely recognizable and whose accomplishments are well-known: politicians like Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy; jurists Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Antonin Scalia; activists such as Martin Luther King, Jr. and Harriet Tubman; celebrities such as John Wayne and Julia Child; and sports stars like Kobe Bryant and Babe Ruth.

    Donald Trump announces some famous Black Americans he plans to include in his ‘National Garden of American Heroes’ during a Black History Month event on Feb. 20, 2025, at the White House.

    The statue garden coincides with an executive order from March 2025 in which the Trump administration denounced what it saw as historical revisionism that had recast the country’s “unparalleled legacy of advancing liberty, individual rights, and human happiness.” Instead, it had constructed a story of the nation that portrayed it “as inherently racist, sexist, oppressive, or otherwise irredeemably flawed,” which “fosters a sense of national shame.”

    “We don’t need to overemphasize the negative,” explained Lindsey Halligan, a 35-year-old insurance lawyer who is named in the order as one of the people tasked with reforming museums that receive government funds.

    Trump often casts himself as a man of the people. But as historians, we don’t see a garden of heroes as a populist effort. To us, it represents a top-down approach to U.S. history, akin to the hagiography that Americans already regularly get from movies, television and professional sports.

    And it comes at a cost: It’s going to be paid for with funds that had been previously allotted to tell stories about people and places that may be less familiar than the proposed figures for Trump’s garden. But they’re nonetheless meaningful to countless communities across the nation.

    Only the movers and shakers matter

    Trump’s fixation on America’s luminaries is adjacent to the “great man” theory of history.

    In 1840, Scottish philosopher and historian Thomas Carlyle published “On Heroes, Hero-Worship, and the Heroic in History,” in which he argued that “The History of the world is but the Biography of great men.”

    American biologist and eugenicist Frederick Adams Woods embraced the great man theory in his 1913 work, “The Influence of Monarchs: Steps in a New Science of History.” In it, he investigated 386 rulers in Western Europe from the 12th century until the French Revolution. He proposed a scientific measurement to quantify the relative impact these rulers had on the course of civilization.

    Then and now, many other historians and sociologists have pushed back, arguing that the “Great Man” view of history oversimplifies the past by attributing major historical events to the actions of a few influential individuals, while ignoring broader social, economic and cultural forces.

    Nonetheless, it continues to have broad appeal. It’s very popular among corporate leaders, for example, many of whom like to portray themselves as visionaries, with their business successes proof of their genius.

    Trump’s garden of heroes reflects his penchant for celebrating wealth, champions and successes, akin to what Walt Disney tried to capture with his Disney World ride Carousel of Progress, which highlights American technological advances.

    A national redundancy?

    However, the U.S. already has a national statuary hall, which opened in the U.S. Capitol in 1870. Each state has contributed two statues; for example, Massachusetts honors Samuel Adams and John Winthrop, while Ohio celebrates James Garfield and Thomas Edison.

    Today there are 102 statutes, though just 14 women.

    Importantly, the roster is fluid – not set in stone – and reflects debates over whom the nation ought to celebrate.

    Over time, the representation has become slightly more inclusive. The first woman, Illinois educator Frances Willard, was added in 1905. Only in 2022 did a Black American appear, when educator Mary Bethune replaced a Confederate general from Florida. And in 2024, Johnny Cash replaced James Paul Clarke, a former governor and senator from Arkansas with Confederate sympathies.

    Family members and elected officials attend the unveiling of the statue of Johnny Cash at the U.S. Capitol on Sept. 24, 2024.
    Kent Nishimura/Getty Images

    What about everyday Americans?

    We don’t think there’s anything wrong with celebrating and honoring popular figures in American history. But we do think there’s an issue when it comes at the expense of other historical and archival projects.

    The New York Times reported that US$34 million for the project would come from funds formerly allocated to the National Endowment for the Arts and National Endowment for the Humanities, whose budget has been cut by 85%.

    Many of the grants that have been slashed explore, celebrate and preserve history in ways that stand in stark contrast to a statue garden. They involve, as Gal Beckerman writes in the Atlantic, efforts that “are about asking questions, about uncovering hidden or overlooked experiences, about closely examining texts or adding to the public record.”

    They include one that supports the digitization of local newspapers and archival records; another to collect and preserve oral histories of local communities; a grant that funds the production of documentaries and podcasts about local communities; traveling exhibitions that bring items from the Smithsonian’s collection to small towns and rural areas; and a grant to fund the collection of first-person accounts of Native Americans who attended U.S. government-run boarding schools.

    These and countless similar history projects serve millions of people far from Washington, and they have broad support from lawmakers and citizens of all political stripes.

    In 1938, as forces of fascism gathered in Europe, a Connecticut high school social science teacher said, “The greatest need of America, on the threshold of the greatest epoch of its history, is citizens who understand the past out of which the nation has grown. … Let us look into the souls of the leaders and the common people who have made America great.”

    In his 2016 campaign, Trump promised to work on behalf of everyday Americans – the “forgotten man and woman.” But the proposed statue garden of famous figures cuts out the common people from America’s story – not just as subjects of history, but as its stewards for future generations.

    With funds slashed from organizations dedicated to local history, we wonder how many more stories will go untold.

    Jennifer Tucker has received funding from the National Endowment for the Humanities for research that examines the social and cultural role of modern technology, such as facial recognition, through a historical lens.

    Peter Rutland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump’s ‘Garden of American Heroes’ is a monument to celebrity and achievement – paid for with history funding that benefits everyday Americans – https://theconversation.com/trumps-garden-of-american-heroes-is-a-monument-to-celebrity-and-achievement-paid-for-with-history-funding-that-benefits-everyday-americans-254564

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Colors are objective, according to two philosophers − even though the blue you see doesn’t match what I see

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Elay Shech, Professor of Philosophy, Auburn University

    What appear to be blue and green spirals are actually the same color. Akiyoshi Kitaoka

    Is your green my green? Probably not. What appears as pure green to me will likely look a bit yellowish or blueish to you. This is because visual systems vary from person to person. Moreover, an object’s color may appear differently against different backgrounds or under different lighting.

    These facts might naturally lead you to think that colors are subjective. That, unlike features such as length and temperature, colors are not objective features. Either nothing has a true color, or colors are relative to observers and their viewing conditions.

    But perceptual variation has misled you. We are philosophers who study colors, objectivity and science, and we argue in our book “The Metaphysics of Colors” that colors are as objective as length and temperature.

    Perceptual variation

    There is a surprising amount of variation in how people perceive the world. If you offer a group of people a spectrum of color chips ranging from chartreuse to purple and asked them to pick the unique green chip – the chip with no yellow or blue in it – their choices would vary considerably. Indeed, there wouldn’t be a single chip that most observers would agree is unique green.

    Generally, an object’s background can result in dramatic changes in how you perceive its colors. If you place a gray object against a lighter background, it will appear darker than if you place it against a darker background. This variation in perception is perhaps most striking when viewing an object under different lighting, where a red apple could look green or blue.

    Of course, that you experience something differently does not prove that what is experienced is not objective. Water that feels cold to one person may not feel cold to another. And although we do not know who is feeling the water “correctly,” or whether that question even makes sense, we can know the temperature of the water and presume that this temperature is independent of your experience.

    Similarly, that you can change the appearance of something’s color is not the same as changing its color. You can make an apple look green or blue, but that is not evidence that the apple is not red.

    Under different lighting conditions, objects take on different colors.
    Gyozo Vaczi/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    For comparison, the Moon appears larger when it’s on the horizon than when it appears near its zenith. But the size of the Moon has not changed, only its appearance. Hence, that the appearance of an object’s color or size varies is, by itself, no reason to think that its color and size are not objective features of the object. In other words, the properties of an object are independent of how they appear to you.

    That said, given that there is so much variation in how objects appear, how do you determine what color something actually is? Is there a way to determine the color of something despite the many different experiences you might have of it?

    Matching colors

    Perhaps determining the color of something is to determine whether it is red or blue. But we suggest a different approach. Notice that squares that appear to be the same shade of pink against different backgrounds look different against the same background.

    The smaller squares may appear to be the same color, but if you compare them with the strip of squares at the bottom, they’re actually different shades.
    Shobdohin/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    It’s easy to assume that to prove colors are objective would require knowing which observers, lighting conditions and backgrounds are the best, or “normal.” But determining the right observers and viewing conditions is not required for determining the very specific color of an object, regardless of its name. And it is not required to determine whether two objects have the same color.

    To determine whether two objects have the same color, an observer would need to view the objects side by side against the same background and under various lighting conditions. If you painted part of a room and find that you don’t have enough paint, for instance, finding a match might be very tricky. A color match requires that no observer under any lighting condition will see a difference between the new paint and the old.

    Is the dress yellow and white or black and blue?

    That two people can determine whether two objects have the same color even if they don’t agree on exactly what that color is – just as a pool of water can have a particular temperature without feeling the same to me and you – seems like compelling evidence to us that colors are objective features of our world.

    Colors, science and indispensability

    Everyday interactions with colors – such as matching paint samples, determining whether your shirt and pants clash, and even your ability to interpret works of art – are hard to explain if colors are not objective features of objects. But if you turn to science and look at the many ways that researchers think about colors, it becomes harder still.

    For example, in the field of color science, scientific laws are used to explain how objects and light affect perception and the colors of other objects. Such laws, for instance, predict what happens when you mix colored pigments, when you view contrasting colors simultaneously or successively, and when you look at colored objects in various lighting conditions.

    The philosophers Hilary Putnam and Willard van Orman Quine made famous what is known as the indispensability argument. The basic idea is that if something is indispensable to science, then it must be real and objective – otherwise, science wouldn’t work as well as it does.

    For example, you may wonder whether unobservable entities such as electrons and electromagnetic fields really exist. But, so the argument goes, the best scientific explanations assume the existence of such entities and so they must exist. Similarly, because mathematics is indispensable to contemporary science, some philosophers argue that this means mathematical objects are objective and exist independently of a person’s mind.

    The color of an animal can exert evolutionary pressure.
    Paul Starosta/Stone via Getty Images

    Likewise, we suggest that color plays an indispensable role in evolutionary biology. For example, researchers have argued that aposematism – the use of colors to signal a warning for predators – also benefits an animal’s ability to gather resources. Here, an animal’s coloration works directly to expand its food-gathering niche insofar as it informs potential predators that the animal is poisonous or venomous.

    In fact, animals can exploit the fact that the same color pattern can be perceived differently by different perceivers. For instance, some damselfish have ultraviolet face patterns that help them be recognized by other members of their species and communicate with potential mates while remaining largely hidden to predators unable to perceive ultraviolet colors.

    In sum, our ability to determine whether objects are colored the same or differently and the indispensable roles they play in science suggest that colors are as real and objective as length and temperature.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Colors are objective, according to two philosophers − even though the blue you see doesn’t match what I see – https://theconversation.com/colors-are-objective-according-to-two-philosophers-even-though-the-blue-you-see-doesnt-match-what-i-see-234467

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: These 4 tips can make screen time good for your kids and even help them learn to talk

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Erika Squires, Assistant Professor, Wayne State University

    Getting involved when your kids are watching digital media can make it an educational experience, rather than just entertainment. damircudic/E+ via Getty Images

    Screen time permeates the lives of toddlers and preschoolers. For many young children, their exposure includes both direct viewing, such as watching a TV show, and indirect viewing, such as when media is on in the background during other daily activities.

    As many parents will know, research points to several negative effects of screen time. As scholars who specialize in speech pathology and early childhood development, we are particularly interested in the recent finding that too much screen time is associated with less parent-child talk, such as fewer conversational turns between parents and children.

    As a result, the American Academy of Pediatrics and World Health Organization suggest limiting screen time for children.

    Beyond quantity, they also emphasize the quality of a child’s engagement with digital media. Used in moderation, certain kinds of media can have educational and social benefits for children – and even contribute to language development.

    These tips may help parents structure and manage screen time more effectively.

    No. 1: Choose high-quality content

    Parents can enhance their children’s screen-time value by choosing high-quality media – that is, content with educational benefit. PBS Kids has many popular shows, from “Nature Cat” to “Sid the Science Kid,” that would qualify as educational.

    Two other elements contribute to the quality of screen time.

    First, screen content should be age-appropriate – that is, parents should choose shows, apps and games that are specifically designed for young children. Using a resource such as Common Sense Media allows parents to check recommended ages for television shows, movies and apps.

    Second, parents can look for shows that use evidence-based educational techniques, such as participatory cues. That’s when characters in shows break the “third wall” by directly talking to their young audience to prompt reflection, action or response. Research shows that children learn new words better when a show has participatory cues – perhaps because it encourages active engagement rather than passive viewing.

    Many classic, high-quality television shows for young children feature participatory cues, including “Mickey Mouse Clubhouse,” “Dora the Explorer,” “Go Diego Go!” and “Daniel Tiger’s Neighborhood.”

    No. 2: Join in on screen time

    The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends that parents and children watch media together whenever possible.

    Screen time doesn’t have to look like this.
    kbeis/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

    This recommendation is based on the evidence that increased screen media use can reduce parent-child conversation. This, in turn, can affect language development. Intentionally discussing media content with children increases language exposure during screen time.

    Parents may find the following joint media engagement strategies useful:

    • Press pause and ask questions.
    • Point out basic concepts, such as letters and colors.
    • Model more advanced language using a “think aloud” approach, such as, “That surprised me! I wonder what will happen next?”

    No. 3: Connect what’s on screen to real life

    Learning from media is challenging for young children because their brains struggle to transfer information and ideas from screens to the real world. Children learn more from screen media, research shows, when the content connects to their real-life experiences.

    To maximize the benefits of screen time, parents can help children connect what they are viewing with experiences they’ve had. For example, while watching content together, a parent might say, “They’re going to the zoo. Do you remember what we saw when we went to the zoo?”

    This approach promotes language development and cognitive skills, including attention and memory. Children learn better with repeated exposure to words, so selecting media that relates to a child’s real-life experiences can help reinforce new vocabulary.

    No. 4: Enjoy screen-free times

    Ensuring that a child’s day is filled with varied experiences, including periods that don’t involve screens, increases language exposure in children’s daily routines.

    Two ideal screen-free times are mealtimes and bedtime. Mealtimes present opportunities for back-and-forth conversation with children, exposing them to a lot of language. Additionally, bedtime should be screen-free, as using screens near bedtime or having a TV in children’s bedrooms disrupts sleep.

    Alternatively, devoting bedtime to reading children’s books accomplishes the dual goals of helping children wind down and creating a language-rich routine.

    Having additional screen-free, one-on-one, parent-child play for at least 10 minutes at some other point in the day is good for young children. Parents can maximize the benefits of one-on-one play by letting their children decide what and how to play.

    Even in small doses, parent-child playtime is important.
    Vera Livchak/Moment via Getty Images

    A parent’s role here is to follow their child’s lead, play along, give their child their full attention – so no phones for mom or dad, either – and provide language enrichment. They can do this by labeling toys, pointing out shapes, colors and sizes. It can also be done by describing activities – “You’re rolling the car across the floor” – and responding when their child speaks.

    Parent-child playtime is also a great opportunity to extend interests from screen time. Including toys of your child’s favorite characters from the shows or movies they love in playtime transforms that enjoyment from screen time into learning.

    Lucy (Kathleen) McGoron receives funding from Michigan Health Endowment fund and SAMHSA.

    Erika Squires does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. These 4 tips can make screen time good for your kids and even help them learn to talk – https://theconversation.com/these-4-tips-can-make-screen-time-good-for-your-kids-and-even-help-them-learn-to-talk-242580

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Hotter and drier climate in Colorado’s San Luis Valley contributes to kidney disease in agriculture workers, new study shows

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Katherine Ann James, Associate Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus

    Agricultural workers exposed to a hotter and drier climate are at an increased risk of kidney damage. George Rose/via Getty Images

    Heat and humidity contributed to kidney damage and disease in the San Luis Valley in Colorado between 1984 and 1998, according to our recently published work in the peer-reviewed journal Weather, Climate, and Society.

    The San Luis Valley is the largest high valley desert in North America. Many of its residents work in agriculture and are exposed to worsening air quality. That decline is due to increased wildfires, dust and temperatures, in combination with low humidity. This change was in part caused by the region’s climate becoming more arid due to a 23-year drought.

    I’m an environmental epidemiologist with an engineering background. For nearly two decades, I have partnered with the San Luis Valley community to investigate how water systems affect human health. Over the past eight years, my team’s research has focused on the far-reaching human health effects of the drought in the area.

    In this study, we used data from a cohort of people in the San Luis Valley who were originally recruited for research on the risk factors for Type 2 diabetes. Researchers often look to established datasets to evaluate new hypotheses because it avoids the need to recruit new study participants. This dataset includes 15 years of clinical, behavioral, demographic, genetic and environmental exposure data. Using it in our recent study allowed us to evaluate the impacts of drought conditions on kidney health.

    Our study suggests that a 10% decline in humidity is associated with a 2% increase in risk for acute kidney injury, while accounting for known risk factors for kidney disease. Those risk factors include age, sex, diabetes and hypertension.

    These findings are supported by our previous study that examined the effects of drought and heat on emergency and urgent care visits for kidney-related issues between 2003 and 2017 in the San Luis Valley.

    The two studies align with growing evidence that climate-related changes, particularly heat and humidity, are contributing to kidney injury. Over time, this means that more people are developing chronic kidney disease.

    Why it matters

    Globally, 10% of the population has kidney disease. In 2021, kidney diseases were the ninth leading cause of death worldwide, according to the World Health Organization. People experiencing poverty or limited access to health care are disproportionately affected.

    In the U.S., more than 1 in 7 adults has chronic kidney disease. That does not account for those with undiagnosed kidney disease.

    Extended exposure to drought conditions coupled with inadequate water intake has been linked to kidney stones, acute kidney injury and chronic kidney disease.

    Dehydration, especially in outdoor workers who labor in hot or dry conditions, is a known contributor to both acute kidney injury and chronic kidney disease.

    Acute kidney injury is characterized by a reduction in kidney function that is reversible.

    Chronic kidney disease is kidney damage that is progressive and may not be reversible.

    Studies in Florida and California have shown declining kidney health in agriculture workers as working conditions are becoming hotter and drier.

    Outdoor workers in agriculture, forestry, mining, ranching and construction are susceptible to the effects of changing outdoor conditions coupled with physical labor. This combination exacerbates dehydration and leads to acute and chronic kidney disease.

    What other research is being done

    In addition to these studies, our research team is involved in other projects aimed at addressing the health impacts of a changing climate.

    One such initiative is the Mountain West Climate-Health Engagement Hub, which focuses on reducing exposure to decreased air quality. This includes the deployment of do-it-yourself air filters and development of low-cost, point-of-use water filters to mitigate exposure to the secondary effects of drought.

    Do-it-yourself air filters can reduce exposure to decreased air quality.
    The Washington Post/Getty Images

    In the Centers for Health, Work & Environment, where I am affiliated, multiple national and international studies are focused on agriculture workers, farm owners and ranchers.

    These studies examine how heat, air quality and drought affect kidney, cardiovascular and mental health. These broader studies aim to inform policy and interventions to safeguard the health of workers globally and particularly in regions most vulnerable to climate change.

    The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

    Katherine Ann James receives funding from National Institutes of Health and CDC-National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health

    – ref. Hotter and drier climate in Colorado’s San Luis Valley contributes to kidney disease in agriculture workers, new study shows – https://theconversation.com/hotter-and-drier-climate-in-colorados-san-luis-valley-contributes-to-kidney-disease-in-agriculture-workers-new-study-shows-248402

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Florida, once considered a swing state, is firmly Republican – a social anthropologist explains what caused this shift

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Alexander Lowie, Postdoctoral associate in Classical and Civic Education, University of Florida

    Florida has attracted new residents since the pandemic, as well as a growth in conservative politics. iStock / Getty Images Plus

    Florida has undergone a dramatic political transformation over the past decade from a swing state to Republican stronghold.

    Florida’s recent congressional special election on April 1, 2025, showcased the state’s increasingly conservative identity, when Republicans won both congressional seats.

    Still, Democrats felt hopeful about these results, since the two Democratic contenders lost by slimmer margins in the 1st and 6th districts than in other recent elections.

    As a political anthropologist who has conducted fieldwork in central Florida, I’ve spent over five years tracking the growth of conservative political groups like the Proud Boys and Moms for Liberty, whose leaderships are based in Florida.

    I’ve seen firsthand how conservative activist networks and the growth of culture war politics, among other factors, have reshaped Florida’s political identity.

    Florida’s Republican state Sen. Randy Fine holds a victory party on April 1, 2025, in Ormond Beach, Fla.
    Joe Raedle/Getty Images

    The state that stopped swinging

    Although political strategists have historically considered Florida a swing state in presidential elections, it has consistently voted Republican since 1948.

    It has only voted for Democratic presidential candidates five times since 1964, for Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and twice for Barack Obama. President Donald Trump has won Florida three times in a row, most recently winning the 2024 election in all but six of Florida’s 67 counties.

    The main battleground since 2000 has been the I-4 Corridor, which connects Tampa, Orlando and Daytona. In 2000, President George W. Bush won the corridor by 4,400 votes. Since Bush only won Florida by 537 votes, and thus the presidency, the area became a top priority for both political parties.

    Some Democrats have said Florida’s political evolution happened gradually and then all at once.

    In 2012, there were almost 1.5 million more registered Democratic voters than Republicans in Florida. In 2020, Democrats’ advantage dropped to about 97,000. And by September 2024, there were almost 1 million more registered Republicans than Democrats.

    Steve Schale, the head of Obama’s 2008 campaign in Florida, argues that this shift happened because the Democratic Party lost the support of some white voters.

    Republicans have also actively courted Hispanic voters, while Democrats falsely believed that young Hispanics would inherently lean toward their party.

    This assumption has hurt the Democratic cause because, for example, some Hispanic voters in Florida, like many Cuban Americans, have long favored Republican. In fact, Trump performed so well with Hispanics in Florida in 2024 that it was the only state in which he received more of the Hispanic vote than Kamala Harris.

    State-level conservative success

    Florida has also had a Republican governor since 1998, a state Senate Republican majority since 1995 and a state House majority since 1997. This Republican dominance has only grown since Trump’s 2016 election.

    In 2018, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis received Trump’s endorsement and went from being relatively unknown in the gubernatorial primaries to the Republican nominee. He ultimately assumed office in 2019.

    Since then, DeSantis has successfully passed a slew of laws and policies reflecting the conservative values of what he saw as the new Floridian electorate.

    For example, DeSantis passed a six-week abortion ban measure into law in 2023.

    With DeSantis’ approval, Florida’s state Legislature also blocked diversity, equity and inclusion programs in state colleges in 2023 and banned lessons on sexual orientation and gender identity for public grade school students that same year.

    In 2023, the Florida governor also signed a law that allowed people to carry concealed weapons without a permit.

    The pandemic factor

    Some conservative political pundits and DeSantis supporters say that the governor’s COVID-19 policies are among the factors that have attracted newcomers to the state.

    Almost 300,000 people moved from out of state to Florida between April 2020 and April 2021, equal to roughly 903 people relocating to the state each day.

    The governor ordered Floridians to stay at home during April 2020, but many of his restrictions were lifted at the end of the month.

    DeSantis did not enforce mask mandates, vaccine requirements and other measures that were common in other states.

    During my fieldwork in Florida from 2022 through 2024, I met multiple people who moved to rural parts of the state because they did not want their lives to be severely restricted during the pandemic.

    One man in his early 50s stated, “During COVID my wife and I realized how screwed we were if things got really bad. We hated the lockdowns and got scared about not having enough food. If things got really bad, we didn’t want to trust other people, we wanted to be self-sufficient. So, we decided to get a place in the middle of the woods, on our own property, that we could go to if everything went to hell.”

    This couple settled on moving from out of state to a rural area of Florida, where they thought they had the best chance of avoiding future lockdown restrictions.

    DeSantis’ policy successes and his “freedom first” response to the pandemic have been celebrated by conservatives nationally.

    Moms for Liberty members in Viera, Fla., protest student face mask mandates in 2023.
    Paul Hennessy/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Gety Images

    Florida’s home for the alt-right

    As Florida lawmakers have continued to push conservative policies since the pandemic, Florida-based activist groups like Moms for Liberty have mobilized to support and expand them.

    Moms for Liberty was founded in 2021 by three Florida former school board members who opposed COVID-19 regulations during the pandemic.

    Moms for Liberty is headquartered in Melbourne, Florida, and is focused on reshaping public school curriculum to exclude what its members see as “woke” themes, like sexual orientation.

    The group lobbied for the 2022 Parental Rights in Education Act and the Stop-Woke Act, referred to by critics as the “Don’t Say Gay” law. This law restricts Florida classrooms from teaching kids in kindergarten through third grade about sexual orientation and gender identity, and also limits instruction on these subjects in higher grades.

    Florida has increasingly become a stronghold for other kinds of political activists, some of whom were instrumental in the Capitol riots on Jan. 6, 2021. Florida was home to 11.5% of the 716 people who were initially charged with participating in the Capitol riots.

    The most notable of these Jan. 6 arrests is Enrique Tarrio, a Miami native who has served as the symbolic leader of the Proud Boys, an alt-right “Western chauvinist” group.

    Alt-right activists are a minority of Florida’s conservative population. In my fieldwork, I have spoken to many Florida conservatives who did not identify with the Proud Boys or other alt-right groups – but were still sympathetic to many of their populist and conservative causes.

    No longer in play?

    Florida is now a major Republican stronghold with Floridians becoming increasingly prominent in national politics. Trump’s Cabinet has 23 people – 16 of them are connected to Florida.

    These include Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who served as a senator in Florida, and Attorney General Pam Bondi, who served as Florida’s state attorney general.

    Though some Democrats may feel optimistic about the special election results, they have lost the Sunshine State, at least for now.

    Alexander Lowie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Florida, once considered a swing state, is firmly Republican – a social anthropologist explains what caused this shift – https://theconversation.com/florida-once-considered-a-swing-state-is-firmly-republican-a-social-anthropologist-explains-what-caused-this-shift-253905

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Iran nuclear deal: future stability of Middle East hangs on its success but initial signs are not good

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Simon Mabon, Professor of International Relations, Lancaster University

    For the second week in a row, senior officials from the United States and Iran will get together to take part in talks about the Iranian nuclear programme. It’s the second round in the latest negotiations – the first having taken place in Oman on April 12.

    But recent statements from both the White House and senior Iranian officials, including a difference of opinion on where the talks should be held, suggest that rapid diplomatic successes may not be forthcoming.

    Donald Trump’s stance on Iran has been unsurprisingly belligerent. It was the first Trump administration that withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and imposed the policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran. Since returning to the Oval Office, Trump has reimposed this policy of maximum pressure.



    Read more:
    Donald Trump backs out of Iran nuclear deal: now what?

    Posting on X, the US special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, declared that “Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program”. He also called for verification of any missiles stockpiled in the Islamic republic.

    Iranian officials vociferously rejected these US demands, with the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, asserting that the missile programme is not for discussion.

    Tehran needs a deal

    There is little doubt that Iran wants a deal, perhaps even needs a deal. It has been hit hard by sanctions over the past decade, which have hollowed out the country’s middle class.

    Israel’s military strikes on Iran and its allies over the past year have eroded the ideological and military clout of the Islamic Republic and wider “axis of resistance”. With the weakening of many of its allies, Iran’s missiles possess even greater importance as a deterrence.

    The strong line taken by the Trump administration leaves little room for manoeuvre. It risks further emboldening hardline elements in Iran, who are perhaps less willing to engage diplomatically. But any belligerent rhetoric from voices in Iran risks pouring fuel on an already incendiary situation.

    At the same time, the Islamic Republic faces a range of serious pressures domestically, such as that seen in the Woman, Life, Freedom movement, as well as increasingly vocal opposition from abroad – notably from the self-proclaimed Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Shah who was ousted in 1979.

    Though Iran may want a deal, it cannot capitulate – particularly after the events of the last year. And nor should it.

    US weighs its strategy

    Hawks in the US, Israel and elsewhere have, of course, heralded the Trump administration’s stance. Fears of an Iranian nuclear programme continue to drive the actions of Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and others – although reports have just emerged that proposed Israeli strikes on targets in Iran were vetoed by Trump in favour of more negotiation.

    While the Gulf states would once have celebrated a tough stance on Iran, the situation is different now. Iran’s long-time rival, Saudi Arabia, has put aside decades of animosity in the hope of a more prosperous shared future.

    In a 2023 agreement mediated by China, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to normalise relations, reopening embassies and embarking on a series of coordinated military exercises. For Saudi Arabia, and in particular its crown prince and de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman, regional stability is essential in realising the ambitious Vision2030 programme – which leans heavily into global investor confidence and trust.

    As a result, the kingdom undertook a pragmatic shift in its regional affairs, embarking on a process of diplomatic rapprochement that surprised many observers. Riyadh has also taken steps towards normalisation with Israel, though the ongoing destruction of Gaza has paused such moves, at least for now.

    At the same time as the nuclear negotiations take place, Israeli strikes on targets in Syria continue. The fall of the Assad regime at the end of 2024 – and the back seat taken by its long-time supporter, Russia – has dramatically altered the political landscape of Syria.

    Though its former president, Bashar al-Assad, has found refuge in Russia, Moscow has taken a watching brief, eager not to antagonise Syria’s new regime and jeopardise its strategically important military bases on the Mediterranean coast. Members of groups previously favoured by the Assad regime, notably the Alawi communities, have fled to the Russian naval base at Latakia in search of protection.

    But thousands of others have been killed amid increasing violence as the forces of the new regime, led by Ahmad al-Shara, seek to extinguish all remnants of the Assad regime – a series of events that looks eerily similar to what occurred in Iraq 20 years ago, when the process of “de-Ba’athification” attempted to remove all traces of Saddam Hussein’s regime from public life.

    Fragile regional order

    The situation across the region is precarious, with the actions of global powers continuing to reverberate. While Washington puts pressure on Tehran and Moscow waits, the scope for Chinese influence in the region increases.

    Ironically, Trump’s tariffs on China may push Beijing further into the Middle East, seeking to capitalise on available opportunities. Its Belt and Road Initiative positions the Middle East firmly within China’s strategic interests. This is likely to open up a new front in the rivalry between Washington and Beijing.

    All the while, it is the people of the Middle East who continue to pay the heaviest price. Ongoing wars and insecurity, fears of a regional conflict, and precarious political conditions – as well as rising food prices and healthcare pressures – are creating a perfect storm that heightens the pressures and challenges of daily life.

    Simon Mabon receives funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. He is a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

    – ref. Iran nuclear deal: future stability of Middle East hangs on its success but initial signs are not good – https://theconversation.com/iran-nuclear-deal-future-stability-of-middle-east-hangs-on-its-success-but-initial-signs-are-not-good-254817

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: MRP poll puts Reform ahead of Labour and the Tories – here’s why the finding should be treated with caution

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex

    Thinktank More in Common recently published an MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll which appears to show that if there was a general election in the near future, Reform would win 180 seats. According to the analysis, Labour and the Conservatives would win 165 seats each and the Liberal Democrats 67. The modelling suggests that Labour could lose 246 seats including 153 to Reform and 64 to the Conservatives.

    More in Common claims that this is not a prediction of the result of the next election, writing: “With four and a half years before the next general election must be called this model is unlikely to represent anything close to the ultimate result and should not be seen as a projection of the election.” Despite this health warning, the poll has spooked some political journalists.

    It is worth remembering how MRP surveys work. Agencies ask a very large sample of electors about their voting intentions – enough to have an average sample size of about 25 respondents in each of the 632 constituencies in Great Britain. This allows them to use data from the census and other sources to identify constituency characteristics which influence individual voting decisions, such as social class, age and income.

    These are then combined with the survey data to get a prediction of how people are likely to vote in each constituency. This can then be used to predict seats won or lost by the parties in the election.

    More in Common did well in forecasting the results of the 2024 general election. Just prior to polling day it conducted a regular poll alongside an MRP poll, and it turned out that the regular one was more accurate in predicting the result than the MRP poll.

    A general problem with MRP polls

    This appears to be a general problem when MRP poll estimates are compared with traditional polls. The difficulty is that the MRP estimates can vary widely depending on the details of the modelling. In addition, the conditions required for MRP to work well are not always met by practitioners.

    To illustrate this last point, the models rely on demographic variables such as social class, gender and age at the constituency level to work well. If the relationship between these variables and constituency voting is strong, this will help to explain individual voting behaviour identified in the survey.

    But if the relationships are weak, the demographics will not be much help. This is a problem because the relationship between demographics, particularly social class, and voting, has been weakening over time.

    Social class and voting

    The chart below shows the relationship between the size of the working class in constituencies across Britain and voting Labour in the 1964 general election. Each dot represents a constituency, and social class is measured in the 1961 census by occupational status with, for example, labourers defined as working class and doctors as middle class.

    Labour leader, Harold Wilson, did a good job in mobilising working class voters in constituencies across Britain and went on to win in 1964. This was possible because of the strong positive relationship between the size of the working class and Labour voting apparent in the chart.

    Working class electors and Labour votes, 1964:

    The relationship between working class electors and Labour voting in 1964.
    P Whiteley, CC BY-ND

    Fast forward 55 years to the 2019 election and we see something completely different. By then the relationship between the size of the working class and Labour voting at the constituency level had largely disappeared.

    This means that in the 1964 election, constituency information about class would have been very helpful in conducting an MRP survey. However, by 2019 it would have been of little use.

    To understand voting behaviour, we need a clear theory of why people vote the way they do. In 1967, political sociologist Peter Pulzer wrote: “In British party politics, social class is everything, all else is embellishment and detail.” This is no longer true.

    Working class electors and Labour votes, 2019:

    The relationship between working class electors and Labour voting in 2019.
    P Whiteley, CC BY-ND

    Now we are in an age of performance politics with parties judged on their ability to deliver the things that people want, like economic growth, low inflation and efficient public services. Class ties are increasingly irrelevant to this because electors will change their votes if they think another party will do a better job.

    In relation to the upcoming local elections, this means that potholes are likely to be more important to voters than their social class identities. If the 2021 census had asked about attitudes to potholes that would be very useful in constructing an MRP, but unfortunately it did not.

    This means that the constituency data used in MRP polling often comes from other surveys rather than from the census, which has the advantage of interviewing everyone. More in Common explains that it used post-election polling to approximate the demographics needed at the constituency level, which of course is an additional source of potential error.

    MRPs are now a feature of the polling landscape, and they are useful in the run-up to a general election. But it’s questionable whether it is worth spending a lot of money to acquire the large samples needed to make them work when the election is years into the future.

    Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC.

    – ref. MRP poll puts Reform ahead of Labour and the Tories – here’s why the finding should be treated with caution – https://theconversation.com/mrp-poll-puts-reform-ahead-of-labour-and-the-tories-heres-why-the-finding-should-be-treated-with-caution-255296

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The ski-jumping cheating scandal: how suits were illegally altered for unfair advantage

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Bryce Dyer, Associate Professor of Sports Technology, Bournemouth University

    In this age of artificial intelligence, data tampering and genetic manipulation, it seems that the nature of fraud and deception in competitive sport is becoming increasingly sophisticated. So, it seems almost surprising to see cheating in sport take a relatively old-fashioned form of late: tampering with equipment.

    Yet that’s precisely what unfolded last month in ski jumping, a winter sport whereby athletes soar down a ramp, take flight and aim to maximise both distance and technique. Over the last few months, several ski jumpers and their management have been suspended from the sport due to the intentional illegal tampering and modification of the suits they wear.

    The case first came to light during the 2025 FIS Nordic World Ski Championships held in Trondheim in March. Two Norwegian athletes, Marius Lindvik and Johann Andre Forfang, were subsequently disqualified from the men’s large hill event due to allegations of illegal ski jump suit manipulation with the intention of improving their performance.

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    A subsequent investigation revealed that their ski suits had been illegally altered. In response, the International Ski and Snowboard Federation (FIS) provisionally suspended the two athletes, along with three Norwegian national team officials – including the head coach and their equipment manager. Both athletes ultimately admitted the illegal alterations.

    The scandal then intensified as FIS expanded its investigation which then subsequently led to the suspension of three other Norwegian ski jumpers. Several members of the team were all found to have been involved in the decision to modify the suits for the championships.

    This wasn’t the sport’s first brush with controversy surrounding its suits. At the 2022 Winter Olympics, several jumpers there were disqualified for wearing suits that were deemed too large, again raising concerns about fairness.

    What did the cheating intend to achieve?

    A successful ski jump can be divided into several phases: in-run, take-off, early flight, stable flight, landing preparation, and landing. The suit contributes to enhancing the performance in all of these phases by directly affecting the aerodynamics and flight characteristics of the athlete. As a result, the size and shape of the suit is heavily regulated.

    In the case of this scandal, the Norwegian Ski Federation general manager told a news conference that a reinforced thread or an extra seam had been put in the jumpsuits of the first two athletes that were suspended.

    This additional material was inserted into the crotch area of the suits, increasing the surface area and stiffness, potentially providing extra lift during a jump’s flight phases. This extra lift would essentially translate into an increase in flight time and therefore a potential increase in the jumping distance. These modifications were not detectable through standard visual inspection and were only discovered upon detailed examination of the suits by then tearing them open.

    Of course, cheating in sport is not a new phenomenon. However, in some cases, such controversies are not cheating per se, but merely new technologies emerging that challenge our perceptions of a sport and its values.

    Some examples of this were the use of full-body swimsuits at the Sydney Olympics in 2000, or the potential use of prosthetic legs in track athletics at the Beijing Olympics in 2008.

    However, sometimes cheating can occur whereby sports equipment is intentionally modified physically to provide a competitive advantage. A recent example of this is the Australian cricket ball tampering scandal in 2018 where balls were intentionally scuffed by players to change their behaviour when bowled.

    Improving a piece of sports equipment to increase its performance is the field of mechanical ergogenics, or, when illicitly performed, colloquially known as “technodoping”.

    Some consider that the physical capabilities of athletes in some sports have now plateaued to the extent that any future improvements in performance will need to rely predominantly on technological innovation. So perhaps it can be understood why the suits were targeted in this particular sport.

    In April 2025, the FIS decided to lift the provisional suspensions of the five Norwegian athletes under investigation for suspected involvement in suit tampering because it is the competitive off-season.

    However, the ban for the officials involved remains in place. In the wake of the scandal, FIS has now implemented stricter regulations to prevent future instances of equipment manipulation. These key measures included limiting athletes to a single, pre-approved suit for the year’s competitions, and the FIS storing and inspecting all suits.

    These reforms aim to uphold the integrity of ski jumping and will hopefully restore confidence in the sport itself. The 2025 scandal stands as a clear reminder that in the pursuit of victory, sports must remain vigilant – because when innovation outpaces fair play, integrity is the first casualty.

    Bryce Dyer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The ski-jumping cheating scandal: how suits were illegally altered for unfair advantage – https://theconversation.com/the-ski-jumping-cheating-scandal-how-suits-were-illegally-altered-for-unfair-advantage-254854

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Popcorn lung: how vaping can scar your lungs for life

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Donal O’Shea, Professor of Chemistry, RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences

    Pixel-Shot/Shutterstock

    A US teenager was recently reported to have developed the oddly named medical condition “popcorn lung” after vaping in secret for three years. Officially known as bronchiolitis obliterans, popcorn lung is a rare but serious and irreversible disease that damages the tiny airways in the lungs, leading to persistent coughing, wheezing, fatigue and breathlessness.

    The term “popcorn lung” dates back to the early 2000s when several workers at a microwave popcorn factory developed lung problems after inhaling a chemical called diacetyl – the same ingredient used to give popcorn its rich, buttery taste.

    Diacetyl, or 2,3-butanedione, is a flavouring agent that becomes a toxic inhalant when aerosolised. It causes inflammation and scarring in the bronchioles (the smallest branches of the lungs), making it increasingly difficult for air to move through. The result: permanent, often disabling lung damage.

    While diacetyl is the most infamous cause, popcorn lung can also be triggered by inhaling other toxic chemicals, including volatile carbonyls like formaldehyde and acetaldehyde – both of which have also been detected in e-cigarette vapours.

    The scariest part? There’s no cure for popcorn lung. Once the lungs are damaged, treatment is limited to managing symptoms. This can include bronchodilators, steroids, and in extreme cases, lung transplantation. For this reason, prevention – not treatment – is the best and only defence.

    And yet, for young vapers, prevention isn’t so straightforward.

    The vaping trap

    Vaping is especially popular among teenagers and young adults, possibly due to the thousands of flavoured vape products available – from bubblegum to cotton candy to mango ice. But those fruity, candy-like flavours come with a chemical cost.

    E-liquids may contain nicotine, but they also include a chemical cocktail designed to appeal to users. Many of these flavouring agents are approved for use in food. That doesn’t mean they’re safe to inhale.

    Here’s why that matters: when chemicals are eaten, they go through the digestive system and are processed by the liver before entering the bloodstream. That journey reduces their potential harm. But when chemicals are inhaled, they bypass this filtration system entirely. They go straight into the lungs – and from there, directly into the bloodstream, reaching vital organs like the heart and brain within seconds.

    That’s what made the original popcorn factory cases so tragic. Eating butter-flavoured popcorn? Totally fine. Breathing in the buttery chemical? Devastating.

    Vaping’s chemical complexity

    With vaping, the situation is even murkier. Experts estimate there are over 180 different flavouring agents used in e-cigarette products today. When heated, many of these chemicals break down into new compounds – some of which have never been tested for inhalation safety. That’s a major concern.



    Read more:
    Flavoured vapes may produce many harmful chemicals when e-liquids are heated – new research

    Diacetyl, though removed from some vape products, is still found in others. And its substitutes – acetoin and 2,3-pentanedione – may be just as harmful. Even if diacetyl isn’t the sole culprit, cumulative exposure to multiple chemicals and their byproducts could increase the risk of popcorn lung and other respiratory conditions.

    This was tragically echoed in the story of the American teen who developed the disease. Her case is reminiscent of the 2019 Evali crisis (e-cigarette or vaping product use-associated lung injury), which saw 68 deaths and over 2,800 hospitalisations in the US. That outbreak was eventually linked to vitamin E acetate – a thickening agent in some cannabis vape products. When heated, it produces a highly toxic gas called ketene.

    More recent studies are raising alarm bells about vaping’s impact on young people’s respiratory health. A multi-national study found that adolescents who vape report significantly more respiratory symptoms, even when adjusting for smoking status. Certain flavour types, nicotine salts, and frequency of use were all linked to these symptoms.

    So, what does this all mean?

    It’s clear that history is repeating itself. Just as workplace safety rules were overhauled to protect popcorn factory workers, we now need similar regulatory urgency for the vaping industry – especially when it comes to protecting the next generation.

    Learning from the past, protecting the future

    Popcorn and vaping might seem worlds apart, but they’re connected by a common thread: exposure to inhaled chemicals that were never meant for the lungs. The danger lies not in what these chemicals are when eaten, but in what they become when heated and inhaled.

    If we apply the lessons from industrial safety to today’s vaping habits – particularly among young people – we could avoid repeating the same mistakes. Regulations, clear labelling, stricter ingredient testing, and educational campaigns can help minimise the risks.

    Until then, stories like that of the American teen serve as powerful reminders that vaping, despite its fruity flavours and sleek designs, is not without consequence. Sometimes, what seems harmless can leave damage that lasts a lifetime.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Popcorn lung: how vaping can scar your lungs for life – https://theconversation.com/popcorn-lung-how-vaping-can-scar-your-lungs-for-life-254414

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How human connections shaped the spread of farming among ancient communities

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Javier Rivas, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Bath

    Yuangeng Zhang/Shutterstock

    If you’ve ever wondered how farming spread far and wide, our research on past human societies offers one explanation: contact between different groups often drives change.

    In a recent paper, together with our colleagues Enrico R. Crema, Stephen Shennan and Oreto García-Puchol among others, we used a mathematical model to analyse what happens when communities with different cultures interact.

    We used a model from predator-prey equations that usually describe how animal populations compete. Our results, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, showed that when one group of foragers and another group of farmers share the same space, their interaction can determine the speed at which agriculture is adopted.

    In many parts of the world, people lived by hunting, fishing and gathering until groups of farmers arrived. This date varies depending on region. For instance, farming arrived at around 1000BC in Japan but at around 5600BC in Iberia.

    Archaeologists have long debated whether farming spread because local foragers took it up themselves or because farmers from elsewhere moved in and outnumbered or replaced them.

    Our model builds on the view that in some cases locals might have adopted farming from newcomers either through exchange or intermarriage but in other cases they might have been displaced or killed by the incoming farmers.

    We tested simulated data against real data from Eastern Iberia, Denmark and the island of Kyushu (Japan) to see which explanations fit best. Considering a period of 1,000 years, we combined equations for population growth, mortality resulting from species’ competition, migration and something called an assimilation parameter, which represents how many foragers became farmers in each time step.

    This allowed us to assess the role of competition and collaboration between groups during the transition to farming.

    To check whether this theory makes sense in real life, we looked at three regions where farming was introduced to local foragers.

    1. Eastern Iberia (Spain)

    Agriculture seems to have arrived around 5600-5500BC in this area and took hold relatively quickly, within about 300-400 years. Small groups of farmers probably arrived by sea, which meant weaker ties to their original communities.

    As a result, they had only two options: perish or expand, since they could not rely all that much on the support of their original groups. Their attempt to expand farming may have failed if they didn’t integrate with or eliminate locals.

    This opens the door to potential “failed attempts”, not captured by the archaeological record. There are recorded “failed” attempts at farming in other areas throughout the world in the archaeological record.

    2. Denmark

    Further north, the process was slower, taking up to 600-800 years. Farmers and foragers appear to have lived close to one another for centuries before the rapid turnover, with a stable “frontier” between the two groups for centuries.

    3. Kyushu (Japan)

    Wet rice farming was introduced by multiple waves of migrants from the Korean peninsula around 1,000BC. We found that, although the farming population grew at a modest rate, mixing with locals was limited. Foragers did, however, decline faster and grow slower than in the other two areas.

    Farming was introduced to Japan around 1000BC.
    Chatrawee Wiratgasem/Shutterstock

    Why contact matters

    Our findings show how human interaction can drive the adoption of farming. Our approach considers that small-scale human relationships can have big consequences.

    Imagine a small community of farmers setting up near a river that local hunter-gatherers frequently visit. Soon they start trading, and a few foragers learn how to cultivate plants. Over time, more people see the benefits of a stable crop supply and switch from hunting to farming.

    Likewise, picture groups of farmers clearing woods to create spaces for husbandry and agriculture. In doing so, they can (even inadvertently) ruin hunting spots during the process, forcing the hunter-gatherers to move elsewhere.

    These scenarios might seem obvious, but considering them pushes us to look for more nuanced explanations further than environmental drivers. While such drivers can play a role, our findings suggest that the demographic makeup, how many farmers there are compared to foragers, and how likely foragers are to jump ship, can be crucial in the spread of farming.

    The same dynamics might explain other moments in human history where two groups interacted. For instance, sometimes early humans migrating into Neanderthal territory mixed with the local populations.

    On the other hand, the spread of horse-riding groups over Eurasia from 3000BC provoked a major demographic turnover. People adapt to their ever-changing contexts, which causes a snowball effect.

    Perhaps the biggest takeaway is that human connectivity is key for cultural and technological change. Our approach isn’t meant to exclude other explanations like climate fluctuations. But it does remind us to think about how simple social exchanges; marriages, friendships or alliances, as well as conflicts, can shape communities.

    Today we think nothing of adopting a new app or gadget once enough people around us use it, in the same way that we often stick to our good ol’ way of doing things, despite being aware of better alternatives.

    Ancient groups might have shown similar patterns on a massive scale during the spread of farming. Seeing these parallels helps us understand how humans behave in groups, whether in a prehistoric village, or a modern metropolis.

    Alfredo Cortell receives funding from the European Commission: MSCA-IF ArchBiMod project H-2020-MSCA-IF-2020 actions (Grant No. 101020631) and The Humboldt Foundation (Grant ID: 1235670). This work has received funding from the following projects: ERC-StG project ENCOUNTER (Grant No. 801953); Synergy Grant project COREX: From Correlations to Explanations: towards a new European Prehistory (Grant Agreement No. 95138). The projects PID2021-127731NB-C21 EVOLMED “Evolutionary cultural patterns in the contexts of the neolithization process in the Western Mediterranean,” MCIN/AI/10.13039/ 501100011033 ERDF A way of making Europe are funded by the Spanish Government, and Prometeo/2021/007 NeoNetS “A Social Network Approach to Understanding the Evolutionary Dynamics of Neolithic Societies (C. 7600–4000 cal. BP)” is funded by the Generalitat Valenciana. Open access funding has been provided by the Max Planck Society.

    Javier Rivas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How human connections shaped the spread of farming among ancient communities – https://theconversation.com/how-human-connections-shaped-the-spread-of-farming-among-ancient-communities-254852

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Endometriosis: our research shows changing your diet may reduce pain symptoms

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Philippa Saunders, Professor of Reproductive Health, University of Edinburgh

    In our study, the majority of participants had tried changing their diet to improve endometriosis pain. Perfect Wave/ Shutterstock

    Endometriosis affects nearly 200 million people worldwide. This chronic condition is characterised by tissue resembling the lining of the womb growing outside of the uterus.

    This common condition has devastating impacts on patients’ wellbeing. It causes chronic pain (particularly during their periods), infertility and symptoms similar to irritable bowel syndrome, including bloating, constipation, diarrhoea and pain during bowel movements.

    While there are ways of managing endometriosis, these treatments can be invasive and often don’t work for everyone. This is why many patients seek out their own ways of managing their symptoms.

    A frequent question we get from patients is, “Can you recommend a diet that will help me manage my pain and gut symptoms?” While ample advice exists online, there’s little information from clinical studies to adequately answer whether or not diet can have an effect on endometriosis symptoms.

    So, we conducted an international online survey, inviting people with endometriosis to share their experiences of how diet has affected their endometriosis pain symptoms.

    Diet and pain

    Before publishing the survey online, we collaborated with a local Scottish endometriosis patient support group to come up with appropriate questions.

    The final survey included multiple-choice and free-text questions about the participant’s demographics, their pain, their use of diet in managing symptoms and their sources of dietary advice. It was promoted online through social media and patient support groups. The survey received 2,599 responses from 51 countries. The age of participants ranged from 16-71.

    Most respondents reported experiencing pelvic pain (97%) and frequent abdominal bloating (91%). This highlighted how common these symptoms are in people with endometriosis.

    Participants were also asked to rate the average level of their abdominal and pelvic pain over the past month, on a scale from zero to ten. The responses highlighted a wide range of pain experiences, though the majority of respondents either rated their average pain a four (can mostly be ignored but with difficulty) or a seven (makes it difficult to concentrate, interferes with sleep and takes effort to function as normal).

    The majority (83%) of respondents also reported making dietary changes to control symptoms. Around 67% noted this had a positive effect on pain.

    The survey listed 20 different diets (plus “other”), allowing participants to select all the diets they’d tried and explain which had affected their pain symptoms. Some of the most popular diets patients had tried included: reducing alcohol intake, going gluten-free, going dairy-free, drinking less caffeine and reducing intake of processed foods and sugar.

    Giving up processed and sugary foods was a common diet change many women with endometriosis made.
    Tatjana Baibakova/ Shutterstock

    Around half of participants reported improvements in their pain after adopting at least one of these diets. For the most popular diets, a reduction in pain was reported by 53% who reduced alcohol consumption, 45% who went gluten-free and dairy-free and 43% who reduced caffeine intake.

    Reducing inflammation

    This survey, which was the largest of its kind to date, was only conducted in English. This might have limited participation. Additionally, the observed changes were all self-reported, meaning we cannot confirm that the dietary modifications directly caused the changes in pain.

    Still, our findings show diet may be an important tool in managing the pain caused by endometriosis. Importantly, no specific diet benefits everyone, so it may take some trial and error to figure out what works best. It’s also worth noting that diet changes appeared to be less beneficial for those with the most severe symptoms.

    Research into why people with endometriosis experience pain has identified excess inflammation as a key factor. Inflammation is the body’s mechanism for fighting off an infection or recovering from an injury. In people with endometriosis, it’s thought that the inflammatory response is overstimulated – triggering sensitisation of nerves and amplifying the perception of pain.

    Certain foods may also promote inflammation in the body. For instance, it’s thought that gluten and dairy could promote inflammation due to the way they interact with the cells lining the gut and the by-products they produce when broken down by the gut microbes. These by-products have the potential to move around the body and cause more widespread inflammation. Alcohol is also known to be pro-inflammatory.

    Reducing intake of certain foods may therefore help reduce overall inflammation levels in people with endometriosis. This may explain why the participants in our study, and others, reported seeing improvements in their symptoms as a result of cutting out inflammatory foods.

    Moving forward, we need properly controlled clinical studies that monitor food intake, real-time recording of pain and IBS-like symptoms, and precise measurement of inflammation in the body, in order to understand the reasons why diet may help people with endometriosis.

    This is something our research team is already working on. We’re launching a large-scale study with more than 1,000 people who have endometriosis. Each participant will donate stool and blood samples, record food intake details and report on the use of pain medications, supplements, prebiotics, probiotics and dietary modifications. The long-term goal with this project is to support a more holistic and personalized approach to caring for people with endometriosis.

    Philippa Saunders has received funding from The Medical Research Council. She is a Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences and sits on the Scientific Advisory Group of the Royal College of Obstetrics and Gynaecology.

    Andrew Horne reports receiving grants from the National Institute for Health and Care Research, Chief Scientist Office, Wellbeing of Women, Roche Diagnostics, and European Union, receiving consultancy and lecture fees from Theramex, Roche Diagnostics and Gedeon Richter, and having patents issued for a UK patent application No. 2217921.2 and international patent application No. PCT/GB2023/053076 outside the submitted work. He is President-elect of the World Endometriosis Society and Trustee to Endometriosis UK. He is Specialty Advisor to the Scottish Government’s Chief Medical Officer for Obstetrics and Gynaecology.

    Francesca Hearn-Yeates does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Endometriosis: our research shows changing your diet may reduce pain symptoms – https://theconversation.com/endometriosis-our-research-shows-changing-your-diet-may-reduce-pain-symptoms-254424

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘Piracy’ to legitimacy: how companies like French ride-hailing platform Heetch can make their mark

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Maxime Massey, Docteur en Sciences de Gestion & Innovation – Chercheur affilié à la Chaire Improbable, ESCP Business School

    The 2024 arrest and subsequent release of activist Paul Watson, the founder of the NGO Sea Shepherd that fights to protect ocean biodiversity, highlighted a division between two opposing camps. There are those who want to stay true to the NGO’s DNA by continuing to practice strong activism against poaching states, and those who believe there is too much at stake in remaining confrontational and advocate instead for more measured actions to institutionalize the NGO. This opposition reflects the dilemma faced by many “pirate organizations”, a concept introduced by scholars Rudolph Durand and Jean-Philippe Vergne.

    What are pirate organizations?

    Pirate organizations are defined by three key characteristics.

    • they develop innovative activities by exploiting legal loopholes

    • they defend a “public cause” to support neglected communities, who in turn support them

    • by introducing innovations that address specific social needs, they disrupt monopolies and contribute to transforming economic and social systems


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    However, to do these things effectively, pirate organizations must become legitimate. An organization is considered legitimate when its various audiences (customers, media, the state, etc.) perceive its actions as desirable according to prevailing values, norms and laws. Legitimacy is built through a process known as legitimation. For pirate organizations, this is particularly challenging, as they are often viewed as both illegal and illegitimate by the state and established industry players. These actors apply pressure to hinder legitimation. So how do pirate organizations build their legitimacy? We examined this question through the emblematic case of Heetch.

    A case study of a pirate organization

    Heetch is a French urban transport start-up launched in 2013 when its founders observed that “young people in Paris and its suburbs struggle to travel at night due to a lack of suitable options”. They decided to create a ride-hailing platform connecting private drivers with passengers.

    This business model, based on the principles of the “sharing economy”, encroached on the monopoly of taxis and the regulated sector of professional chauffeur-driven vehicles (VTCs). Despite challenges, Heetch gradually built its legitimacy through three distinct phases, responding to pressures in different ways.

    Stage 1: ‘clandestine pragmatism’ (2013-2015)

    When Heetch launched in 2013, a conflict was brewing in the urban transport sector. On one side, there were new applications for VTC services (such as Uber) and for private driver platforms (such as UberPop and Heetch); on the other, there were traditional taxis and their booking departments (such as G7). The latter, along with government authorities, began exerting pressure to shut down the apps, with Uber receiving most of the media attention.

    During this phase, Heetch adopted a strategy of “clandestine pragmatism”. The start-up avoided direct confrontations and stayed “under the radar” of the media. This approach is similar to “bootlegging” – concealing an innovative activity during its early stages. Heetch built a pragmatic legitimacy among its immediate audience using informal techniques such as word-of-mouth. However, its legitimacy remained limited, because it operated outside media scrutiny and without state approval.

    Stage 2: ‘subversive activism’ (2015-2017)

    In June 2015, taxi drivers organized massive protests against the “unfair competition” posed by new ride-hailing apps. The Paris police issued a ban on UberPop-like applications, including Heetch’s.

    While Uber shut down UberPop, Heetch exploited a legal loophole – its name was not explicitly mentioned in the ban – and continued operations. In response, the state cracked down on Heetch: around 100 drivers were placed in police custody and the founders were summoned to court, facing charges of “illegal facilitation of contact” with drivers, “complicity in unlawful taxi operations” and “misleading commercial practices”.

    Heetch reacted by engaging in “subversive activism”. The founders spoke out in the media to defend their service, emphasizing its public utility, particularly for young suburban residents needing nighttime mobility. The start-up generated buzz by releasing a satirical video featuring altered images of political figures in their youth. Heetch leveraged its pragmatic legitimacy, already established within its community, to gain media legitimacy among a broader audience of people, including journalists and policymakers. The organization gained public recognition, but also faced increasing legal battles.

    Stage 3: ‘tempered radicalism’ (2017-present)

    In March 2017, a court ruled against Heetch, deeming its operations illegal. Heetch temporarily suspended its service but relaunched two weeks later with a new business model employing professional drivers. Two months later, Heetch attempted to reintroduce private drivers, but, after facing additional legal action, it abandoned this approach after six months to focus exclusively on legal transportation services.

    During this phase, Heetch practised “tempered radicalism”. The company integrated into the system while continuing its “fight” in a more moderate manner, avoiding direct confrontation with the state and industry players. It adopted three key strategies:

    • compliance – respecting the law

    • compromise – balancing its transportation service with its public mission

    • manipulation – lobbying to influence regulations

    Through this approach, Heetch secured regulatory legitimacy while strengthening its existing pragmatic and media legitimacy. The company was recognized by the French government and included in the French Tech 120 and Next 40 programmes for the country’s most promising start-ups. It also became the first ride-hailing platform to attain “mission-driven company” status.

    Is ‘piracy’ a growth accelerator?

    Ultimately, our study highlights the value of piracy as a strategy for kickstarting the growth of an organization that serves a public cause. By embracing this approach, a pirate organization can drive systemic change to address social or environmental challenges.

    That said, piracy carries an inherent risk: at some point, it will likely face a legitimacy crisis triggered by resistance from monopolies or public authorities. The recent struggles of Paul Watson serve as testament. As he aptly puts it: “You can’t change the world without making waves”.

    Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.

    – ref. ‘Piracy’ to legitimacy: how companies like French ride-hailing platform Heetch can make their mark – https://theconversation.com/piracy-to-legitimacy-how-companies-like-french-ride-hailing-platform-heetch-can-make-their-mark-253079

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Far-right AfD tops German poll for first time – just weeks after Friedrich Merz’s election win

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ed Turner, Reader in Politics, Co-Director, Aston Centre for Europe, Aston University

    The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has topped a national poll for the first time, prompting the popular Bild newspaper to carry the headline: “AfD breaks the magic barrier”. The poll put the AfD on 26% and the Christian democratic CDU/CSU on 25%.

    This is just one opinion poll, but since February’s early federal election, the direction of travel has been clear. Governments sometimes become unpopular mid-term, but Germany isn’t mid-term. The federal election was just two months ago, and the new government hasn’t yet been formed (this routinely takes months in Germany). Nor has CDU leader Friedrich Merz become chancellor; the date pencilled in for that is May 6.

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    So these clear polling shifts (with the CDU/CSU down about 3% on the federal election, the AfD up about 5%) are striking. They owe little to any finesse by the party that has taken the lead, the AfD, and much more to the unusual circumstances in which Germany’s mainstream parties have found themselves. They also pose a salutary warning about possible future developments.

    Following the recent election, the AfD has a record 152 parliamentarians and is currently embroiled in an argument about whether, given its expanded size, it can take over a meeting room currently occupied by the SPD – a sensitive topic as it is named after Otto Wels, a social democrat who opposed Hitler’s seizure of power.

    So far, its approach has been to attack the political mainstream it brands “cartel parties”. In the new Bundestag’s first meeting, the AfD’s Stephan Brandner took to insulting other parties (the SPD and Greens were “political dwarf Germans”, mainstream parties were “lying” and “cheating”). None of this seems likely to have driven the party’s poll surge – although the AfD does find some traction when accusing Merz of betraying conservative voters.

    What has, however, affected the polls is Merz himself. The CDU leader presented himself as a fiscal hawk during the federal election campaign, but within days of his win, he performed a volte-face. He agreed to relax Germany’s constitutional restrictions on debt so defence spending above 1% of GDP would no longer be counted, likewise a new €500 billion fund for infrastructure.

    The change also meant Germany’s states could also run a modest deficit. These moves owed much to pressure from the social democrat SPD – the infrastructure demand in particular was a key condition from Merz’s only possible coalition partner. But there was also a clear need to spend more on defence (given global developments) and infrastructure, with no other funds being available.

    Early April’s Politbarometer poll showed just 36% thinking it “good” if Merz became chancellor (59% “not good”). On a scale of 5 to -5, respondents rate Merz -0.8. Even though the public backs the changes to debt rules he has made, there is a sense that Merz was not honest with them in the election campaign.

    These poor ratings are in spite of coalition talks between CDU/CSU and SPD having gone reasonably well. Not only did they agree on the debt rule reform, but a coalition treaty is now being voted on by SPD members. The CDU will agree it at the end of the month while the Bavarian CSU has already given the green light.

    It includes significant tightening of migration policy (at the outer reaches of what the SPD would agree to), some cuts to VAT and corporation tax, and nods in the direction of income tax cuts for lower and middle earners and a higher minimum wage. That said, there has already been public argument between CDU/CSU and SPD about how binding these commitments are – not a good omen for future co-operation.

    Pressure on both sides

    So while this poll doesn’t change the fact that Merz will almost certainly be voted in as chancellor leading a CDU/CSU coalition with the SPD, it does show that the coalition is already facing an age-old problem for “grand coalitions” between centre-left and centre-right parties.

    The risk is always that they will end up strengthening support for parties to their left and right. The SPD faces a serious threat from the Greens and the resurgent Left Party amongst those who would favour a more open attitude to immigration and higher taxes for top earners, for example.

    No matter how far Merz goes on immigration and tax cuts, the AfD will accuse him of betraying core conservative values and may continue to gain ground as a result. Some leading CDU politicians have suggested treating the AfD as a more “normal” opponent (for instance in allowing it to chair parliamentary committees). But that would hardly be a game-changer.

    Merz’s difficulties are heightened by the global economic situation: Germans are already deeply pessimistic about economic developments, and the impacts and instability generated by US tariffs, whether implemented or potential, put the country in the eye of the storm, making the job of governing more difficult still.

    A clear majority of German voters still rejects any prospect of the AfD joining the government, but they may have to get used to it being ahead in opinion polls.

    Ed Turner receives funding from the German Academic Exchange Service.

    – ref. Far-right AfD tops German poll for first time – just weeks after Friedrich Merz’s election win – https://theconversation.com/far-right-afd-tops-german-poll-for-first-time-just-weeks-after-friedrich-merzs-election-win-255254

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What will the UK Supreme Court gender ruling mean in practice? A legal expert explains

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alexander Maine, Senior Lecturer in Law, City St George’s, University of London

    jeep2499/Shutterstock

    The Supreme Court’s decision in For Women Scotland Ltd v The Scottish Ministers will mean changes in how trans people in the UK access services and single-sex spaces.

    In the highly anticipated judgment announced April 17, the court ruled that the definition of “sex”, “man” and “woman” in the Equality Act refers to “biological sex”. It found that this does not include those who hold a gender recognition certificate (trans people who have had their chosen gender legally recognised). In simple terms, “women” does not include transgender women.

    It is important to note that the court’s remit was focused on interpretation of existing laws, not creating policy. The court affirmed that trans people should not be discriminated against, nor did they intend to provide a definition of sex or gender outside of the application of the Equality Act.

    The prime minister has said he welcomes the “real clarity” brought by the ruling. But while it may bring some legal clarity, questions remain about the practical implementation. The judgment also raises new questions about the operation of the Gender Recognition Act, and what it now means to hold a gender recognition certificate.

    What was the court case?

    The gender-critical feminist group For Women Scotland challenged the Scottish government’s guidance on the operation of the Equality Act in relation to a Scottish law that sets targets for increasing the proportion of women on public boards.

    The definition of a “woman” for the purposes of that law included trans women who had undergone, or were proposing to undergo, gender reassignment.

    The issue that the court had to address was whether a person with a full gender recognition certificate (GRC) which recognises that their gender is female, is a “woman” for the purposes of the Equality Act 2010. The act gives protection to people who are at risk of unlawful discrimination.

    The court’s decision was that the meaning of “sex” was biological and so references in the act to “women” and “men” did not, therefore, apply to trans women or trans men who hold GRCs.

    What has changed with this ruling?

    Prior to the ruling, there were contested views as to whether trans people could access certain single-sex spaces – some of the most contentious being prisons, bathrooms and domestic abuse shelters.

    The ruling does not require services to exclude trans people from all single-sex spaces. It does, however, clarify that if a service operates a single-sex space, for example a gym changing room, then exclusion is based on biological sex and not legal sex. Neither the court nor the government has said how “biological sex” would be defined or proven.

    A service provider may operate a single-sex space on the basis of privacy or safety of users. To base this on biological sex must be a proportionate means of achieving a legitimate aim – for example, the safety of women in a group for abuse survivors. This means that service providers may still operate trans-inclusive policies, but they may open themselves to legal challenge.



    Read more:
    What does the UK Supreme Court’s gender ruling mean for trans men?

    What does this mean for the Gender Recognition Act?

    The Gender Recognition Act 2004 introduced gender recognition certificates (GRCs), which certify that a person’s legal gender is different from their assigned gender at birth. A trans person can apply for a GRC in order to change their gender on their birth certificate. For legal purposes, they are then recognised as their acquired gender.

    The ruling does not strike down or affect the operation of the Gender Recognition Act. But it does give the impression that the GRA – and holding a GRC – is now less effective.

    The ruling clarifies that a trans woman who has a GRC and is recognised legally in her acquired gender can be excluded from single-sex spaces on the ground of biological sex, as would a trans woman without a GRC. Before the ruling, a trans person with a GRC would have been able to access many single-sex spaces and services that match the gender on their GRC.

    In order to be granted a GRC, a person must show that they have lived in their acquired gender for at least two years and that they intend to live in that gender until death. Their application must be approved by two doctors, but – in what was a world-first at the time it was introduced – does not require any medical transition.

    The Supreme Court states that trans people (with or without a GRC) will still be protected from discrimination. Sex and gender reassignment are both protected characteristics under the Equality Act. This means that trans people may still rely on the law to protect them from direct or indirect discrimination levelled at them on the basis of being trans, or because of their perceived sex.

    The court uses the example that a trans woman applying for a job being denied that job on the basis of being trans would still be entitled to sue for discrimination.

    How will single-sex services operate?

    The key question now, both for service providers and trans people, is what spaces trans people will be able to use. It is not the Supreme Court’s job to issue guidance on this – and the judgment is notably silent on the practical implementation of the ruling.

    Service providers may choose to offer unisex spaces, for example gender neutral bathrooms. British Transport Police have already confirmed that strip searches of those arrested on the network would be conducted based on biological sex, and other services will likely follow.

    It is up to service providers, employers and healthcare providers to interpret the ruling and decide how to apply it. The government has said that further guidance will be issued by the Equality and Human Rights Commission. But how the ruling is implemented in practice, and what it means for other laws like the Gender Recognition Act, will likely be debated for some time.

    Alexander Maine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What will the UK Supreme Court gender ruling mean in practice? A legal expert explains – https://theconversation.com/what-will-the-uk-supreme-court-gender-ruling-mean-in-practice-a-legal-expert-explains-255043

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: When rock music met ancient archeology: the enduring power of Pink Floyd Live at Pompeii

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Craig Barker, Head, Public Engagement, Chau Chak Wing Museum, University of Sydney

    Sony Music

    The 1972 concert film Pink Floyd Live at Pompeii, back in cinemas this week, remains one of the most unique concert documentaries ever recorded by a rock band.

    The movie captured the band on the brink of international stardom, released seven months before their breakout album Dark Side of the Moon, which would go on to sell 50 million copies and spend 778 weeks on the Billboard charts.

    The film was the first time a rock concert took place in the ruins of an archaeological site. This intermingling of art and archaeology would change the way many thought of Pompeii.

    The amphitheatre of Pompeii

    The amphitheatre of Pompeii has quite a history as a venue for spectacles.

    Constructed around 70 BCE, it was one of the first permanent constructed amphitheatres in Italy, designed to hold up to 20,000 spectators.

    From graffiti and advertisements, we know it was used in antiquity for gladiatorial fights and displays and hunts of wild beasts and athletic contests.

    The Amphitheatre of Pompeii was constructed around 70 BCE.
    Marco Ober/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Famously we are told by Roman historian Tactius in 59 CE a deadly brawl occurred between Pompeiians and residents of the nearby town of Nuceria during games, resulting in a ten-year ban on gladiatorial contests at the venue. The amphitheatre was destroyed by the eruption of Vesuvius in 79 CE.

    There is a long tradition of authors, artists, filmmakers and designers taking inspiration from the site and its destruction. A 13-year-old Mozart’s visit to the Temple of Isis at the site inspired The Magic Flute in 1791.

    This fresco depicts the amphitheatre riots of 59 CE, which would lead to gladiatorial contests being banned at the venue for a decade.
    National Archaeological Museum of Naples/Wikimedia Commons

    In the rock music era, Pompeii has inspired numerous artists, especially around themes of death and longing. Cities in Dust (1985) by Siouxsie and the Banshees was perhaps the most famous until Bastille’s 2013 hit Pompeii. In The Decemberists’ Cocoon (2002), the destruction of Pompeii acts as a metaphor for the guilt and loss in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks.

    Since 2016, the amphitheatre has hosted concerts – with audiences this time. Appropriately, one of the first was a performance by Pink Floyd’s guitarist David Gilmour. His show over two nights in July 2016 took place 45 years after first playing at the site.

    But how did Pink Floyd come to play at Pompeii in 1972?

    Rethinking rock concert movies

    It was the peak era of rock concert documentaries. Woodstock (1970) and The Rolling Stone’s Gimme Shelter (1970), and other documentaries of the era, placed the cameras in the audience, giving the cinema-goer the same perspective as the concert audience.

    As a concept, it was getting stale.

    Filmmaker Adrian Maben had been interested in combining art with Pink Floyd’s music. He initially pitched a film of the band’s music over montages of paintings by artists such as Rene Magritte. The band rejected the idea.

    Maben returned to them after a holiday in Naples, realising the ambience of Pompeii suited the band’s music. A performance without an audience provided the antithesis of the era’s concert films.

    Roger Waters during the film Pink Floyd Live at Pompeii.
    Sony Music

    The performance would become iconic, particularly the scenes of Roger Waters banging a large gong on the upper wall of the amphitheatre, and the cameras panning past the band’s black road case to reveal the band in the ancient arena.

    It was as far away from Woodstock as possible.

    The performance was filmed over six days in October 1971 in the ancient amphitheatre, with the band playing three songs in the ancient venue: Echoes, A Saucerful of Secrets, and One of These Days.

    Ancient history professor Ugo Carputi of the University of Naples, a Pink Floyd fan, had persuaded authorities to allow the band to film and to close the site for the duration of filming. Besides the film crew, the band’s road crew – and a few children who snuck in to watch – the venue was closed to the public.

    In addition to the performance, the four band members were filmed walking over the volcanic mud around Boscoreale, and their performances in the film both were interspersed with images of antiquities from Pompeii.

    The movie itself was fleshed out with studio performances in a Paris TV studio and rehearsals at Abbey Road Studios.

    Marrying art and music

    Famously the Pink Floyd film blends images of antiquities from the Naples Archaeological Museum with the band’s performances.

    Roman frescoes and mosaics are highlighted during particular songs. Profiles of bronze statues meld with the faces of band members, linking past and present.

    Later scenes have the band backdropped by images of frescoes from the famed Villa of the Mysteries and of the plaster casts of eruption victims.

    The band’s musical themes of death and mystery link with ancient imagery, and it would have been the first time many audience members had seen these masterpieces of Roman art.

    The Memento mori mosaic features significantly during the performance of the song Careful with that Axe, Eugene.
    Naples National Archaeological Museum/Wikimedia Commons

    Pink Floyd Live at Pompeii marked a brave experiment in rock concert movies.

    Watching it more than 50 years later, it is a timepiece of early 70s rock and a remarkable document of a band on the brink of fame.

    Because of their progressive rock sound, sonic experimentation and philosophical lyrics, it was often said by Pink Floyd’s fans that they were “the first band in space”. They even eventually had a cassette of their music played in space.

    But many are not aware of their earlier roots in the dust of ancient Pompeii. The re-release of the film gives an opportunity to enjoy the site’s unlikely role in music history.

    Pink Floyd at Pompeii – MCMLXXII is in cinemas from Thursday.

    Craig Barker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. When rock music met ancient archeology: the enduring power of Pink Floyd Live at Pompeii – https://theconversation.com/when-rock-music-met-ancient-archeology-the-enduring-power-of-pink-floyd-live-at-pompeii-252744

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Inside the elaborate farewell to Pope Francis

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Carole Cusack, Professor of Religious Studies, University of Sydney

    ➡️ View the full interactive version of this article here.

    Carole Cusack does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Inside the elaborate farewell to Pope Francis – https://theconversation.com/inside-the-elaborate-farewell-to-pope-francis-255020

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The UK’s social security system falls way below international human rights standards: new report

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Koldo Casla, Senior Lecturer, Essex Law School, University of Essex

    9to9studio/Shutterstock

    The right to social security is enshrined in several international agreements on human rights. But the UK’s system – even before the disability benefits cuts announced earlier this year – falls way below these standards.

    For a new report published today, Amnesty International asked my colleague Lyle Barker and me to review the evidence about the state of the UK’s social security in relation to international human rights law.

    The UK has signed and ratified a number of international agreements on human rights. One of these is the 1966 International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR), which lays out the right to social security. An accompanying document defines the three key principles of this right as:

    • Availability A social security system established in law, administered publicly, and materially reachable by those who need it.

    • Adequacy Benefits must be suitable, both in amount and in duration, to realise essential socioeconomic rights.

    • Accessibility Everyone should be covered by the social security system, paying particular attention to disadvantaged and marginalised individuals and groups.

    The conclusion of our study for Amnesty International is crystal clear: even disregarding the cuts announced in March, the UK’s social security system does not meet these standards.

    Availability

    Our review of the literature shows a widespread underclaiming of benefits. It has been estimated that in 2024, £22.7 billion in income-related benefits went unclaimed, a £4 billion increase from the previous year.

    Gaps in official data hinder a clear understanding of why many people are missing out on the support they are entitled to. But qualitative evidence suggests this is largely due to fear, stigma, bureaucratic and digital hurdles, and eligibility cliff edges for means-tested benefits.

    In recent years, the UK government has adopted a contentious and punitive stance toward benefit recipients. Media and political rhetoric have portrayed those who claim benefits as idle or undeserving scroungers.

    This stigma harms the mental health and self-esteem of people experiencing poverty. It can result in shame and secrecy, and create barriers to people accessing support they are entitled to.

    Our research for Amnesty International concludes that UK claimants do not get enough information and support about their rights to benefits. Combined with the stigma of claiming, the UK is falling far short of making benefits “available” in line with international standards.

    Adequacy

    Since the austerity policies of the 2010s, the UK’s social security system has become significantly less adequate in supporting vulnerable people and families. The basic rate of universal credit (the main benefit for working-age people on a low income) is at 40-year low in real terms amid a cost of living crisis.

    Restrictive policies, such as the benefit cap (introduced in 2013 to set a maximum limit to the total benefits received by a household) and the two-child limit have curtailed access to essential benefits. Although inflation adjustments in the last two years provided some relief, many benefits still fail to keep up with rising living costs.

    The two-child limit is the cruellest expression of the inadequacy of the UK’s social security system. Introduced by the Conservative government in 2017, the two-child limit restricts financial support through universal credit to two children. It is likely to be the most significant single cause of child poverty in the UK, including in families where adults work but do not earn enough to make ends meet.

    When Labour returned to power, there was much speculation about whether they would reverse the two-child limit. But despite pleas from experts and people with direct experience, the government has persisted in retaining it.



    Read more:
    Our research shows the harm the two-child limit on benefits is doing. Only scrapping it can end this

    Accessibility

    Our study lays out the many barriers to accessibility in the UK’s system. For example, the bureaucratic hurdles in the assessment process, and the disproportionate impact of punitive sanctions on lone mothers and on minority ethnic claimants.

    The UK operates a benefits sanction regime, which imposes penalties on claimants who fail to meet certain conditions. These include attending jobcentre appointments or accepting job offers. In general, sanctions and the fear of sanctions erode the trust between benefit claimants and the social security system.

    Benefits sanctions are just one of the barriers to accessing social security.
    1000words/Shutterstock

    As it did in its previous review in 2016, in February the UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights recommended that the UK review the use of benefit sanctions to ensure they are used proportionately and are subject to prompt and independent dispute resolution mechanisms.

    Another accessibility concern is the shift to a digital-by-default system in the 2010s. While intended to make accessing benefits more efficient, it has become an administrative barrier.

    Many people, particularly the elderly and others who are less digitally literate, struggle to navigate the benefits system. It excludes people without reliable internet access, underscoring a digital divide that prevents meaningful access to social security.

    Meeting standards

    Given the evidence, it is no surprise that earlier this year, the UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights urged the UK government to assess the cumulative effects of the austerity measures introduced in the 2010s.

    In particular, the committee recommended reversing the two-child limit, the benefit cap and the five-week delay for the first universal credit payment, and increasing the budget allocated to social security. These recommendations were made before the changes announced in the spring statement.

    To live up to the internationally recognised right to social security, the UK should recognise in law, policy and practice that social security is a human right. And, that it is essential to the fulfilment of other human rights.

    Amnesty International recommends the government set up a commission with statutory powers, to produce a strategy for “wholesale reform” of the social security system. The UK must establish a minimum support level and an essentials guarantee, to ensure beneficiaries can consistently meet their basic needs. A good way to start would be abolishing the two-child limit once and for all.

    Koldo Casla and Lyle Barker wrote the study underpinning Amnesty International’s report on the state of the right to social security in the UK.

    – ref. The UK’s social security system falls way below international human rights standards: new report – https://theconversation.com/the-uks-social-security-system-falls-way-below-international-human-rights-standards-new-report-254528

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Malaria scorecard: battles have been won and advances made, but the war isn’t over

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Shüné Oliver, Medical scientist, National Institute for Communicable Diseases

    Sub-Saharan Africa continues to bear the brunt of malaria cases in the world. In this region 11 countries account for two-thirds of the global burden.

    World Malaria Day is marked on 25 April. What progress has been made against the disease, where are the gaps and what’s being done to plug them?

    As scientists who research malaria in Africa, we believe that the continent can defeat the disease. New, effective tools have been added to the malaria toolbox.

    Researchers and malaria programmes, however, must strengthen collaborations. This will ensure the limited resources are used in ways that make the most impact.

    The numbers

    Some progress has been made, but in some cases there have been reverses.

    • Between 2000 and 2015 there was an 18% reduction in new cases from 262 million in 2000 to 214 million in 2015. Since then, progress has stalled.

    • The World Health Organization estimates that approximately 2.2 billion cases have been prevented between 2000 and 2023. Additionally, 12.7 million deaths have been avoided. In 2025, 45 countries are certified as malaria free. Only nine of those countries are in Africa. These include Egypt, Seychelles and Lesotho.

    • The global target set by the WHO was to reduce new cases by 75% compared to cases in 2015. Africa should have reported approximately 47,000 cases in 2023. Instead there were 246 million.

    • Almost every African country with ongoing malaria transmission experienced an increase in malaria cases in 2023. Exceptions to this were Rwanda and Liberia.

    So why is progress stagnating and in many cases reversing?

    The setbacks

    Effective malaria control is extremely challenging. Malaria parasite and mosquito populations evolve rapidly. This makes them difficult to control.

    Africa is home to malaria mosquitoes that prefer biting humans to other animals. These mosquitoes have also adapted to avoid insecticide-treated surfaces.

    It has been shown in South Africa that mosquitoes may feed on people inside their homes, but will avoid resting on the sprayed walls.

    Mosquitoes have also developed mechanisms to resist the effects of insecticides. Malaria vector resistance to certain insecticides used in malaria control is widespread in endemic areas. Resistance levels vary around Africa.

    Resistance to the pyrethroid class is most common. Organophosphate resistance is rare, but present in west Africa. As mosquitoes become resistant to the chemicals used for mosquito control, both the spraying of houses and insecticide treated nets become less effective. However, in regions with high malaria cases, nets still provide physical protection despite resistance.

    An additional challenge is that malaria parasites continue to develop resistance to anti-malarial drugs. In 2007 the first evidence began to emerge in south-east Asia that parasites were developing resistance to artemisinins. These are key drugs in the fight against malaria.

    Recently this has been shown to be happening in some African countries too. Artemisinin resistance has been confirmed in Eritrea, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. Molecular markers of artemisinin resistance were recently detected in parasites from Namibia and Zambia.

    Malaria parasites have also developed mutations that prevent them from being being detected by the most widely used rapid diagnostic test in Africa.

    Countries in the Horn of Africa, where parasites with these mutations are common, have changed the malaria rapid diagnostic tests used to ensure early diagnosis.

    The progress

    Nevertheless, the fight against malaria has been strengthened by novel control strategies.

    Firstly, after more than 30 years of research, two malaria vaccines – RTS,S and R21 – have finally been approved by the WHO. These are being deployed in 19 African countries.

    These vaccines have reduced disease cases and deaths in the high-risk under-five-years-old age group. They have reduced cases of severe malaria by approximately 30% and deaths by 17%.

    Secondly, effectiveness of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets has been improved.

    New insecticides have been approved for use. Chemical components that help to manage resistance have also been included in the nets.

    Thirdly, novel tools are showing promise. One option is attractive toxic sugar baits. This is because sugar is what mosquitoes naturally eat. Biocontrol by altering the native gut bacteria of mosquitoes may also prove effective.

    Fourthly, reducing mosquito populations by releasing sterilised male or genetically modified mosquitoes into wild mosquito populations is also showing promise. Trials are currently happening in Burkina Faso. Genetically sterilised males have been released on a small scale. This strategy has shown promise in reducing the population.

    Fifthly, two new antimalarials are expected to be available in the next year or two. Artemisinin-based combination therapies are standard treatment for malaria. An improvement to this is triple artemisinin-based combination therapy. This is a combination of this drug with an additional antimalarial. Studies in Africa and Asia have shown these triple combinations to be very effective in controlling malaria.

    The second new antimalarial is the first non-artemisinin-based drug to be developed in over 20 years. Ganaplacide-lumefantrine has been shown to be effective in young children. Once available, it can to be used to treat parasites that are resistant to artemisinin. This is because it has a completely different mechanism of action.

    The end game

    It has been several years since the malaria control toolbox has been strengthened with novel tools and strategies that target both the vector and the parasite. This makes it an ideal time to double down in the fight against this deadly disease.

    In 2020, the WHO identified 25 countries with the potential to stop malaria transmission within their borders by 2025. While none of these countries eliminated malaria, some have made significant progress. Costa Rica and Nepal reported fewer than 100 cases. Timor-Leste reported only one case in recent years.

    Three southern African countries are included in this group: Botswana, Eswatini and South Africa. Unfortunately, all these countries showed increases in cases in 2023.

    With the new tools, these and other countries can eliminate malaria, getting us closer to the dream of a malaria-free world.

    Shüné Oliver receives funding from the National Research Foundation of South Africa and the South African Medical Research Council. She is associated with both the National Institute for Communicable Diseases and the Wits Research Institte for Malaria.

    Jaishree Raman receives funding from the Gates Foundation, Global Fund, Wellcome Trust, National Research Foundation, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, South African Medical Research Council, and the Research Trust. She is affiliated with the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, the Wits Institute for Malaria Research, University of Witwatersrand, and the Institute for Sustainable Malaria Control, University of Pretoria.

    – ref. Malaria scorecard: battles have been won and advances made, but the war isn’t over – https://theconversation.com/malaria-scorecard-battles-have-been-won-and-advances-made-but-the-war-isnt-over-255230

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Election Diary: Dutton tops list of most distrusted, amid deepening voter cynicism about political leaders

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    In this election, voters are more distrustful than ever of politicians, and the political heroes of 2022 have fallen from grace, swept from favour by independent players.

    A Roy Morgan survey has found, for the first time, that Australians are driven more by who they distrust than who they trust.

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is the most distrusted figure, outranking even US President Donald Trump. He’s three times more distrusted than Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

    Nor are any federal ministers or opposition frontbenchers in the top five trusted figures.

    In March 2022, before the election of May that year, federal Labor figures, then in opposition, were riding a wave. Federal Labor frontbenchers occupied the top three “net trust” spots. Now, they have dropped out entirely from the top five.

    The five political leaders with the highest net trust in 2022 were, in order: Penny Wong, Albanese, Tanya Plibersek, then Western Australian Labor premier Mark McGowan, and Jacqui Lambie, an outspoken crossbench senator from Tasmania.

    in 2025, all but Lambie have disappeared from the top five. (McGowan has retired from politics.)

    The new list is headed by ACT independent Senator David Pocock, who has been a key figure in negotiations with the government on a number of issues. Lambie has risen to second place. She’s followed by three premiers: Queensland’s David Crisafulli (LNP), Chris Minns (Labor, NSW) and Roger Cook (Labor, WA).

    Both Pocock and Lambie recorded almost no distrust.

    Pocock was seen by respondents as genuine and principled, and someone who listened to constituents. He was praised for championing the vulnerable and the environment and approaching politics with humility, according to the survey.

    Lambie won points for being a straight talker. One respondent described her as “crude but honest”.

    The Morgan survey asks people open-ended questions: to nominate the political leaders they trust and distrust and say why.

    Dutton heads the 2025 list of those with the highest net distrust scores. Clive Palmer is second and Trump next. Albanese and Energy Minister Chris Bowen follow.

    The list is rounded out by Victorian Labor Premier Jacinta Allan, Greens Leader Adam Bandt, One Nation Senator Pauline Hanson, Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor, Nationals Barnaby Joyce and Shadow Attorney-General Michaelia Cash.

    In 2022 there were no Labor politicians in the most distrusted list; now there are three, two from the federal government and one premier.

    In 2022 the distrust list, in order, was: Palmer, Scott Morrison, Dutton, Joyce, Hanson, Vladimir Putin, Craig Kelly, Dominic Perrottet, Taylor, Cash and Josh Frydenberg.

    Condemnation of neo-Nazi disruption unites leaders on campaign truce day

    Anzac Day brought a truce in campaigning, as political players prepare for a final frantic week before the poll.

    But ugliness broke out at Melbourne’s Shrine of Remembrance, when a small group of neo-Nazis heckled during the Welcome to Country by Bunurong and Gunditjmara elder Uncle Mark Brown.

    The Age reported that convicted neo-Nazi Jacob Hersant led the men. Hersant last year was found guilty of performing an illegal Nazi salute.

    Police escorted Hersant from the service.

    Later Victoria Police said a 26-year-old man had been intervidewed over offensive behaviour and police would proceed via summons.

    At the service, Victorian Governor Margaret Gardner was also booed when acknowledging the traditional owners of the land.

    In Perth at the dawn service, a heckler shouted obscenities during the Welcome to Country.

    Albanese responded, saying: “The disruption of Anzac Day is a disgraceful act and the people responsible must face the full force of the law. This was an act of low cowardice on a day when we honour courage.”

    Dutton said neo-Nazis were “a stain on our national fabric”. He said the Welcome to Country was “an important part of official ceremonies and it should be respected”.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Election Diary: Dutton tops list of most distrusted, amid deepening voter cynicism about political leaders – https://theconversation.com/election-diary-dutton-tops-list-of-most-distrusted-amid-deepening-voter-cynicism-about-political-leaders-254995

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: AI policies in Africa: lessons from Ghana and Rwanda

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Thompson Gyedu Kwarkye, Postdoctoral Researcher, University College Dublin

    Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasing productivity and pushing the boundaries of what’s possible. It powers self-driving cars, social media feeds, fraud detection and medical diagnoses. Touted as a game changer, it is projected to add nearly US$15.7 trillion to the global economy by the end of the decade.

    Africa is positioned to use this technology in several sectors. In Ghana, Kenya and South Africa, AI-led digital tools in use include drones for farm management, X-ray screening for tuberculosis diagnosis, and real-time tracking systems for packages and shipments. All these are helping to fill gaps in accessibility, efficiency and decision-making.

    However, it also introduces risks. These include biased algorithms, resource and labour exploitation, and e-waste disposal. The lack of a robust regulatory framework in many parts of the continent increases these challenges, leaving vulnerable populations exposed to exploitation. Limited public awareness and infrastructure further complicate the continent’s ability to harness AI responsibly.

    What are African countries doing about it?
    To answer this, my research mapped out what Ghana and Rwanda had in place as AI policies and investigated how these policies were developed. I looked for shared principles and differences in approach to governance and implementation.

    The research shows that AI policy development is not a neutral or technical process but a profoundly political one. Power dynamics, institutional interests and competing visions of technological futures shape AI regulation.

    I conclude from my findings that AI’s potential to bring great change in Africa is undeniable. But its benefits are not automatic. Rwanda and Ghana show that effective policy-making requires balancing innovation with equity, global standards with local needs, and state oversight with public trust.

    The question is not whether Africa can harness AI, but how and on whose terms.

    How they did it

    Rwanda’s National AI Policy emerged from consultations with local and global actors. These included the Ministry of ICT and Innovation, the Rwandan Space Agency, and NGOs like the Future Society, and the GIZ FAIR Forward. The resulting policy framework is in line with Rwanda’s goals for digital transformation, economic diversification and social development. It includes international best practices such as ethical AI, data protection, and inclusive AI adoption.

    Ghana’s Ministry of Communication, Digital Technology and Innovations conducted multi-stakeholder workshops to develop a national strategy for digital transformation and innovation. Start-ups, academics, telecom companies and public-sector institutions came together and the result is Ghana’s National Artificial Intelligence Strategy 2023–2033.

    Both countries have set up or plan to set up Responsible AI offices. This aligns with global best practices for ethical AI. Rwanda focuses on local capacity building and data sovereignty. This reflects the country’s post-genocide emphasis on national control and social cohesion. Similarly, Ghana’s proposed office focuses on accountability, though its structure is still under legislative review.

    Ghana and Rwanda have adopted globally recognised ethical principles like privacy protection, bias mitigation and human rights safeguards. Rwanda’s policy reflects Unesco’s AI ethics recommendations and Ghana emphasises “trustworthy AI”.

    Both policies frame AI as a way to reach the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. Rwanda’s policy targets applications in healthcare, agriculture, poverty reduction and rural service delivery. Similarly, Ghana’s strategy highlights the potential to advance economic growth, environmental sustainability and inclusive digital transformation.

    Key policy differences

    Rwanda’s policy ties data control to national security. This is rooted in its traumatic history of identity-based violence. Ghana, by contrast, frames AI as a tool for attracting foreign investment rather than a safeguard against state fragility.

    The policies also differ in how they manage foreign influence. Rwanda has a “defensive” stance towards global tech powers; Ghana’s is “accommodative”. Rwanda works with partners that allow it to follow its own policy. Ghana, on the other hand, embraces partnerships, viewing them as the start of innovation.

    While Rwanda’s approach is targeted and problem-solving, Ghana’s strategy is expansive, aiming for large-scale modernisation and private-sector growth. Through state-led efforts, Rwanda focuses on using AI to solve immediate challenges such as rural healthcare access and food security. In contrast, Ghana looks at using AI more widely – in finance, transport, education and governance – to become a regional tech hub.

    Constraints and solutions

    The effectiveness of these AI policies is held back by broader systemic challenges. The US and China dominate in setting global standards, so local priorities get sidelined. For example, while Rwanda and Ghana advocate for ethical AI, it’s hard for them to hold multinational corporations accountable for breaches.

    Energy shortages further complicate large-scale AI adoption. Training models require reliable electricity – a scarce resource in many parts of the continent.

    To address these gaps, I propose the following:

    Investments in digital infrastructure, education and local start-ups to reduce dependency on foreign tech giants.

    African countries must shape international AI governance forums. They must ensure policies reflect continental realities, not just western or Chinese ones. This will include using collective bargaining power through the African Union to bring Africa’s development needs to the fore. It could also help with digital sovereignty issues and equitable access to AI technologies.

    Finally, AI policies must embed African ethical principles. These should include communal rights and post-colonial sensitivities.

    Thompson Gyedu Kwarkye does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. AI policies in Africa: lessons from Ghana and Rwanda – https://theconversation.com/ai-policies-in-africa-lessons-from-ghana-and-rwanda-253642

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor takes large leads in YouGov and Morgan polls as surge continues

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    With just eight days until the May 3 federal election, and with in-person early voting well under way, Labor has taken a seven-point lead in a national YouGov poll and an 11-point lead in a Morgan poll. An exit poll of early voters is also encouraging for Labor.

    A national YouGov poll, conducted April 17–22 from a sample of 1,500, gave Labor a 53.5–46.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the April 11–15 YouGov poll. This is Labor’s biggest lead in YouGov this term.

    Primary votes were 33.5% Labor (up 0.5), 31% Coalition (down two), 14% Greens (up one), 10.5% One Nation (up 3.5), 2% Trumpet of Patriots (steady), 5% independents (down four) and 4% others (up one). In this poll, the Coalition has lost votes on its right to One Nation.

    Using 2022 election preference flows would give Labor about a 55–45 lead from these primary votes. YouGov is applying preference flows from its previous MRP poll that was conducted from late February to late March.

    However, recent polls that use respondent preferences suggest the gap in the Coalition’s favour between respondent and 2022 preference flows has dropped to nearly zero. This means YouGov’s current preference assumptions may be too pro-Coalition. The Poll Bludger expects another YouGov MRP poll this weekend.

    While the gap between Morgan and YouGov’s headline voting intentions is two points, Morgan is using respondent preferences for all their polls, while YouGov uses respondent preferences from its last MRP poll. By 2022 election flows, the gap is only 0.5 points.

    Here is the poll graph of Labor’s two-party vote in national polls. If YouGov and Morgan are right, Labor is likely headed for a landslide re-election. The only recent poll that has had the Coalition in a decent position was the April 14–16 Freshwater poll.

    Both the YouGov and Morgan polls were taken after candidate nominations were declared on April 11. Both are now using seat-specific candidate lists in their polls. Support for independents fell as many seats don’t have viable independent candidates.

    Anthony Albanese’s net approval in YouGov slid one point to -7, with 49% dissatisfied and 42% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval slumped eight points to a record low in this poll of -18. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 50–35 (48–38 previously).

    Labor takes double-digit lead in Morgan poll

    A national Morgan poll, conducted April 14–20 from a sample of 1,605, gave Labor a 55.5–44.5 lead by headline respondent preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the April 7–13 Morgan poll.

    Primary votes were 34.5% Labor (up 2.5), 34% Coalition (up 0.5), 14.5% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (steady), 0.5% Trumpet of Patriots (down 0.5), 7.5% independents (down 2.5) and 3% others (steady). By 2022 election flows, Labor led by 55.5–44.5, a one-point gain for Labor.

    By 48–34, voters thought Australia was headed in the wrong direction (48.5–34.5 previously). Morgan’s consumer confidence index increased 1.3 points to 85.5.

    Exit polls of early voting in 19 seats encouraging for Labor

    The News Corp tabloids on Thursday released results of exit polls of pre-poll voters from the first two days of in-person early voting (Tuesday and Wednesday). A total of 4,000 voters were surveyed across 19 seats (just over 200 per seat). The swings in these polls were compared against all votes in these seats in 2022, not just the early votes.

    In Australia, Labor does better on election day booths than in pre-poll voting booths. ABC election analyst Antony Green said Labor’s two-party vote was 2.8 points higher at election day booths compared with pre-poll votes in 2022.

    I also believe relatively few young people will vote very early based on US experience, so the demographic mix of these early votes will skew older and less Greens-friendly than the final early vote.

    Comparing these very early exit polls with the final vote from pre-poll centres in 2022, The Poll Bludger had Labor gaining primary vote swings in all seats that are likely to be Labor vs Coalition contests, while the Coalition was down except in Victoria. The Greens also dropped, but not in the Brisbane Greens-held seats.

    If these very early pre-poll votes skew older than the final pre-poll votes and these exit polls are representative of people who have already voted, the Coalition is in big trouble.

    Newspoll aggregate data from late March to mid-April

    The Australian on Tuesday released aggregate data for the four Newspolls conducted during the election campaign. These polls were conducted from late March to mid-April from an overall sample of 5,033.

    The Poll Bludger said Labor led by 52–48 in New South Wales, a two-point gain for Labor since the January to March Newspoll aggregate. Labor led by 53–47 in Victoria, a two-point gain for Labor. The Coalition led by 54–46 in Queensland, a three-point gain for Labor. Labor led by an unchanged 54–46 in Western Australia. Labor led by 55–45 in South Australia, a five-point gain for Labor.

    The Poll Bludger’s poll data has Labor leading with the university-educated by 55–45, a three-point gain for Labor. Among those with a TAFE/technical education, there was a 50–50 tie, a two-point gain for Labor. Among those without tertiary education, there was a 50–50 tie, a two-point gain for Labor.

    The Poll Bludger’s BludgerTrack now gives Labor a national 53.0–47.0 lead, a 0.9% swing to Labor since the 2022 election. In NSW, Labor leads by 53.4–46.6, a 2.0% swing to Labor. In Victoria, Labor leads by 52.8–47.2, a 2.0% swing to the Coalition. In Queensland, the Coalition leads by 52.5–47.5, a 1.5% swing to Labor. In WA, Labor leads by 57.6–42.4, a 2.6% swing to Labor. In SA, Labor leads by 56.8–43.2, a 2.8% swing to Labor.

    DemosAU poll of Greens-held Brisbane seats

    The Poll Bludger reported Tuesday that DemosAU collectively polled the three Greens-held Brisbane seats (Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith) in mid-April from a sample of 1,087. Labor led the Liberal National Party by 56–44 while the Greens led by 55–45. The LNP had 36% of the primary vote across these three seats, with the Greens and Labor tied at 29%.

    In 2022, primary votes across these seats were 35.7% LNP, 30.7% Greens and 26.2% Labor. The small swing to Labor and against the Greens implies Labor would gain Brisbane from the Greens, with the Greens retaining Ryan and Griffith.

    This poll is far more plausible than the JWS polls that had huge swings to the LNP in all these seats and the Greens a distant third in Brisbane and Ryan.

    NSW Resolve poll: Labor gains from low

    A New South Wales state Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the late March and mid-April federal Resolve polls from a sample of 1,123, gave the Coalition 36% of the primary vote (down two since February), Labor 33% (up four), the Greens 11% (down three), independents 14% (up three) and others 6% (down two).

    No two-party estimate was provided, but The Poll Bludger said Labor had about a 52–48 lead. Labor incumbent Chris Minns led the Liberals’ Mark Speakman as preferred premier by 40–15 (35–14 previously).

    Asked about NSW government services, by 42–27 voters thought public schools good, by 43–32 they thought public transport good and by 37–36 they thought road infrastructure good. But public hospitals were thought poor by 42–38.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Labor takes large leads in YouGov and Morgan polls as surge continues – https://theconversation.com/labor-takes-large-leads-in-yougov-and-morgan-polls-as-surge-continues-255026

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Beating malaria: what can be done with shrinking funds and rising threats

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Taneshka Kruger, UP ISMC: Project Manager and Coordinator, University of Pretoria

    Healthcare in Africa faces a perfect storm: high rates of infectious diseases like malaria and HIV, a rise in non-communicable diseases, and dwindling foreign aid.

    In 2021, nearly half of the sub-Saharan African countries relied on external financing for more than a third of their health expenditure. But donor fatigue and competing global priorities, such as climate change and geopolitical instability, have placed malaria control programmes under immense pressure. These funding gaps now threaten hard-won progress and ultimately malaria eradication.

    The continent’s healthcare funding crisis isn’t new. But its consequences are becoming more severe. As financial contributions shrink, Africa’s ability to respond to deadly diseases like malaria is being tested like never before.

    Malaria remains one of the world’s most pressing public health threats. According to the World Health Organization there were an estimated 263 million malaria cases and 597,000 deaths globally in 2023 – an increase of 11 million cases from the previous year.

    The WHO African region bore the brunt, with 94% of cases and 95% of deaths. It is now estimated that a child under the age of five dies roughly every 90 seconds due to malaria.

    Yet, malaria control efforts since 2000 have averted over 2 billion cases and saved nearly 13 million lives globally. Breakthroughs in diagnostics, treatment and prevention have been critical to this progress. They include insecticide-treated nets, rapid diagnostic tests, artemisinin-based combination therapies (drug combinations to prevent resistance) and malaria vaccines.

    Since 2017, the progress has been flat. If the funding gap widens, the risk is not just stagnation; it’s backsliding. Several emerging threats such as climate change and funding shortfalls could undo the gains of the early 2000s to mid-2010s.

    New challenges

    Resistance to drugs and insecticides, and strains of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum that standard
    diagnostics can’t detect, have emerged as challenges. There have also been changes in mosquito behaviour, with vectors increasingly biting outdoors, making bed nets less effective.

    Climate change is shifting malaria transmission patterns. And the invasive Asian mosquito species Anopheles stephensi is spreading across Africa, particularly in urban areas.

    Add to this the persistent issue of cross-border transmission, and growing funding shortfalls and aid cuts, and it’s clear that the fight against malaria is at a critical point.

    As the world observes World Malaria Day 2025 under the theme “Malaria ends with us: reinvest, reimagine, reignite”, the call to action is urgent. Africa must lead the charge against malaria through renewed investment, bold innovation, and revitalised political will.

    Reinvest: Prevention is the most cost-effective intervention

    We – researchers, policymakers, health workers and communities – need to think smarter about funding. The economic logic of prevention is simple. It’s far cheaper to prevent malaria than to treat it. The total cost of procuring and delivering long-lasting insecticidal nets typically ranges between US$4 and US$7 each and the nets protect families for years. In contrast, treating a single case of severe malaria may cost hundreds of dollars and involve hospitalisation.

    In high-burden countries, malaria can consume up to 40% of public health spending.

    In Tanzania, for instance, malaria contributes to 30% of the country’s total disease burden. The broader economic toll – lost productivity, work and school absenteeism, and healthcare costs – is staggering. Prevention through long-lasting insecticidal nets, chemoprevention and health education isn’t only humane; it’s fiscally responsible.

    Reimagine: New tools, local solutions

    We cannot fight tomorrow’s malaria with yesterday’s tools. Resistance, climate-driven shifts in transmission, and urbanisation are changing malaria’s patterns.

    This is why re-imagining our approach is urgent.

    African countries must scale up innovations like the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine and next-generation mosquito nets. But more importantly, they must build their own capacity to develop, test and produce these tools.

    This requires investing in research and development, regional regulatory harmonisation, and local manufacturing.

    There is also a need to build leadership capacity within malaria control programmes to manage this adaptive disease with agility and evidence-based decision-making.

    Reignite: Community and collaboration matters

    Reigniting the malaria fight means shifting power to those on the frontlines. Community health workers remain one of Africa’s greatest untapped resources. Already delivering malaria testing, treatment and health education in remote areas, they can also be trained to manage other health challenges.

    Integrating malaria prevention into broader community health services makes sense. It builds resilience, reduces duplication, and ensures continuity even when external funding fluctuates.

    Every malaria intervention delivered by a trusted, local health worker is a step towards community ownership of health.

    Strengthened collaboration between partners, governments, cross-border nations, and local communities is also needed.

    The cost of inaction is unaffordable

    Africa’s malaria challenge is part of a deeper health systems crisis. By 2030, the continent will require an additional US$371 billion annually to deliver basic primary healthcare – about US$58 per person.

    For malaria in 2023 alone, US$8.3 billion was required to meet global control and elimination targets, yet only US$4 billion was mobilised. This gap has grown consistently, increasing from US$2.6 billion in 2019 to US$4.3 billion in 2023.

    The shortfall has led to major gaps in the coverage of essential malaria interventions.

    The solution does not lie in simply spending more, but in spending smarter by focusing on prevention, building local innovation, and strengthening primary healthcare systems.

    The responsibility is collective. African governments must invest boldly and reform policies to prioritise prevention.

    Global partners must support without dominating. And communities must be empowered to take ownership of their health.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Beating malaria: what can be done with shrinking funds and rising threats – https://theconversation.com/beating-malaria-what-can-be-done-with-shrinking-funds-and-rising-threats-255126

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Pope Francis became a climate change influencer

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Will de Freitas, Environment + Energy Editor, UK edition

    “The Earth, our home, is beginning to look more and more like an immense pile of filth.” These aren’t the words of a radical sociologist or rogue climate scientist. They aren’t the words of a Conversation editor either. Nor are these:

    “A selfish and boundless thirst for power and material prosperity leads both to the misuse of available natural resources and to the exclusion of the weak and disadvantaged.”

    These are in fact quotes from Pope Francis, who died last weekend.

    This roundup of The Conversation’s climate coverage comes from our award-winning weekly climate action newsletter. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed.

    I never thought this job would have me writing newsletters in praise of a papal climate influencer, but here we are. You can read various obits and interesting takes on Pope Francis and what’s next for the Catholic church elsewhere on The Conversation. But here I want to focus on his thoughts on climate change and the impact he had.

    Our common home

    In 2015, two years after becoming pope, Francis published Laudato Si (Praise Be to You), a 183-page papal letter sent to all Catholic bishops on “care for our common home”. It was a significant intervention made just a few months before the climate summit that led to the Paris agreement.

    Writing at the time, sustainability professor Steffen Böhm said that what made it so radical “isn’t just [Pope Francis’s] call to urgently tackle climate change. It’s the fact he openly and unashamedly goes against the grain of dominant social, economic and environment policies.”

    For Böhm, who was then at the University of Essex but now works at Exeter, this radical message “puts him on a confrontation course with global powerbrokers and leaders of national governments, international institutions and multinational corporations”.

    He quotes a section where the Pope says “those who possess more resources [and] power seem seem mostly to be concerned with masking the problems or concealing their symptoms, simply making efforts to reduce some of the negative impacts of climate change”. The Pope warns that “such effects will continue to worsen if we continue with current models of production and consumption”.

    Böhm points out the Pope “might be the only person with both the clout and the desire to meaningfully deliver a message like this”.



    Read more:
    Pope’s climate letter is a radical attack on the logic of the market

    Bernard Laurent of EM Business School in Lyon, says that in France the Pope’s message “managed to bring together both conservative currents – such as the Courant pour une Écologie Humaine (Movement for a Human Ecology), created in 2013 – and more open-minded Catholic intellectuals such as Gaël Giraud, a Jesuit and author of Produire Plus, Polluer Moins : l’Impossible Découplage? (Produce more, Pollute Less: the Impossible Decoupling?)”



    Read more:
    Pope Francis and Laudato Si’: an ecological turning point for the Catholic Church

    Clearly, this was a unique figure able to reach people who might not listen to a Greta Thunberg or an Al Gore.

    But, while it’s great the Paris agreement was signed, it was still filled with the exact sort of market logic and buck-passing – carbon credits, “emit now, clean up later”, and so on – the Pope had criticised a few months previously. And climate change itself only got worse. In the years following, Pope Francis spoke at the UN and published a series of other “exhortations” related to climate change.

    Did any of this make any difference?

    Celia Deane-Drummond is a theology professor at the University of Oxford and director of a research institute named after the 2015 papal letter. In a piece published the same day Pope Francis’s death was announced, she looked at his influence on the global climate movement.

    Deane-Drummond notes Pope Francis’s emphasis on listening to Indigenous people for instance in his lesser-known exhortation Querida Amazonia, which means “beloved Amazonia”, from February 2020.

    “This exhortation resulted from his conversations with Amazonian communities and helped put Indigenous perspectives on the map. Those perspectives helped shape Catholic social teaching in the [papal letter] Fratelli Tutti, which means ‘all brothers and sisters’, published on October 3 2020.”

    A key influencer

    Perhaps the Pope’s biggest influence was on activists rather than policymakers. Deane-Drummond says he was often mentioned by participants in a research project on religion, theology and climate change she was part of.

    “When we asked more than 300 [religious] activists representing six different activist groups who most influenced them to get involved in climate action, 61% named Pope Francis as a key influencer.”

    The 2015 papal letter also gave rise to the Laudato Si movement which Deane-Drummond points out “coordinates climate activism across the globe. It has 900 Catholic organisations as well as 10,000 of what are known as Laudato Si ‘animators’, who are all ambassadors and leaders in their respective communities.”



    Read more:
    Three ways Pope Francis influenced the global climate movement

    There are specific religious arguments he was able to make to appeal to these groups, note Joel Hodge and Antonia Pizzy of Australian Catholic University.

    They write that: “Francis argued combating climate change relied on the ‘ecological conversion’ of the human heart, so that people may recognise the God-given nature of our planet and the fundamental call to care for it. Without this conversion, pragmatic and political measures wouldn’t be able to counter the forces of consumerism, exploitation and selfishness.”



    Read more:
    Pope Francis has died, aged 88. These were his greatest reforms – and controversies

    It’s not an argument that will particularly work on me. But then addressing the climate crisis will require all sorts of people to be persuaded of the need for serious action, including policy wonks, tech bros, radical activists, worried parents and, yes, people motivated by their religion.

    The last pope didn’t have to say anything about the climate crisis. It’s not necessarily in the job description. But it’s a good thing that Pope Francis did speak about it and, as Deane-Drummond says: “We can only hope [the next pope] will build on his legacy and influence political change for the good, from the grassroots frontline right up to the highest global ambitions.”

    – ref. How Pope Francis became a climate change influencer – https://theconversation.com/how-pope-francis-became-a-climate-change-influencer-255086

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: It’s World Immunization Week. How prepared is Canada if vaccines are needed for a new pandemic?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kelley Lee, Professor and Tier 1 Canada Research Chair in Global Health Governance; Scientific Co-Director, Bridge Research Consortium, Simon Fraser University

    With the global resurgence of many vaccine-preventable diseases, World Immunization Week (April 24-30) provides a timely opportunity for Canadians to reflect on the goal of “Immunization for All.”

    The World Health Organization (WHO) raises awareness each year of the importance of equitable access to lifesaving and health-protecting vaccines. More than 154 million lives worldwide over the past 50 years have been saved by vaccines, excluding vaccines for COVID-19, malaria, influenza, human papilloma virus, and other deadly diseases.

    Immunization programs underpin 14 of the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The global eradication of smallpox, 99 per cent reduction of wild polio cases since 1988, and 40 per cent reduction in infant mortality are why vaccines are celebrated among public health’s greatest achievements

    Continued benefits from vaccines under threat in Canada

    Supported by a universal health-care system, strong public health infrastructure, and publicly funded programs, Canada has enjoyed a century of decline in diseases such as measles, diphtheria and pertussis thanks to vaccines.

    Recent trends, however, are cause for concern. A decline in vaccine confidence, worsening since the COVID-19 pandemic, challenges of access and the inclusion of vaccines in partisan political rhetoric have led to reduced vaccine uptake.

    In 2024, 17 per cent of Canadian parents were “really against” vaccinating their children, up from four per cent in 2019. The measles outbreak in Ontario, with more than 800 cases and 61 hospitalizations, are real consequences of these choices. The Council of Canadian Academies estimated that COVID-19 misinformation cost Canada more than 2,800 lives and $300 million in additional health-care and economic losses.

    Vaccines for future pandemics

    The spectre of a new pandemic looms with the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1). In the United States, infections in dairy cattle and on poultry farms continue.

    With vaccination likely playing a critical role in any public health response, the dismantling of parts of the American public health infrastructure, defunding of vaccine research and ramping up of political rhetoric against vaccines is highly concerning. The United States’s withdrawal from global health, including the termination of funding to GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance and WHO, is likely to profoundly harm global immunization programs and pandemic preparedness.

    Canada must take stock of this changing landscape. Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam’s 2024 report, Realizing the Future of Vaccination for Public Health, sets out a clear framework for realizing the full potential of vaccination in Canada.
    In addition to major investments in new vaccine development and biomanufacturing in Canada, this public health framework is designed to support a better co-ordinated national immunization system, concerted efforts to address public trust, and efforts to improve equitable access.

    Need for a national immunization registry

    The lack of integration of Canada’s fragmented immunization data across provinces and territories makes it more challenging to plan vaccine rollouts, identify coverage gaps or rapidly track adverse events after immunization. The Canadian Public Health Association and others have long called for a comprehensive and harmonized immunization registry as essential for a modern and responsive system.

    A national framework for vaccine data collection would allow policymakers and practitioners to make evidence-informed decisions in real time.

    Supporting public trust

    Sustaining high vaccination coverage begins with public trust in science, government and public health. While most people still trust science and scientists, what constitutes trustworthy sources of information has become a serious problem.

    Insufficient transparency around vaccine development, regulation and monitoring of adverse reactions needs addressing. Concerns about the rapid pace of scientific advances, including the 100-days mission to produce an effective vaccine for a future pandemic, must be recognized.

    With so many new vaccines expected to roll out in coming years, including new frontiers in neurodegenerative disorders and vaccines for certain cancers, a harmonized vaccine schedule would foster public trust. In this context, vaccine misinformation has become a serious problem.

    Centring equitable access and design

    The COVID-19 pandemic showed how structural inequalities reduced the ability to access vaccines.

    Initiatives during the pandemic to support equitable access — such as mobile clinics, culturally appropriate information and community-led initiatives — increased uptake. These approaches need to be extended to routine vaccination.

    Moreover, building supportive environments means incorporating an “equity by design” approach, which applies regulatory tools and systems design to support vaccine equity, from discovery to rollout means that the ability to keep vaccines refridgerated cold chains or needle delivery, for example, do not contribute to disparities of access.

    Bridge Research Consortium

    The Bridge Research Consortium (BRC) is a multidisciplinary team of social scientists and humanities scholars established in 2024 to understand the social and behavioural factors that influence new vaccine uptake in Canada.

    Bridging understandings across the “pipeline” for developing new vaccines and therapeutics, and the public health system, the BRC supports tailored and equity-informed strategies that enhance public trust and equitable access. We will hear directly from communities across the country, identify concerns in real-time, and co-develop approaches that reflect diverse perspectives. We plan to achieve this through demystifying how vaccines are developed and produced, holding deliberative dialogues that bring together diverse perspectives on challenging topics, and creating a travelling science exhibit. World Immunization Week is a timely reminder of the importance of this work to enable Canada to realize the potential benefits of vaccines.

    Immunity and Society is a new series from The Conversation Canada that presents new vaccine discoveries and immune-based innovations that are changing how we understand and protect human health. Through a partnership with the Bridge Research Consortium, these articles — written by academics in Canada at the forefront of immunology and biomanufacturing — explore the latest developments and their social impacts.

    Kelley Lee receives funding from the Canada’s Biomedical Research Fund, Canada Foundation for Innovation, and British Columbia Knowledge Development Fund to support the work of the Bridge Research Consortium. The BRC is one of 19 projects funded to support Canada’s Biomanufacturing and Life Sciences Strategy. She also receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and New Frontiers in Research Fund to conduct research on pandemic preparedness and response. She currently serves as a Commissioner on the National University of Singapore-The Lancet Pandemic Readiness, Implementation, Monitoring and Evaluation (PRIME) Commission.

    Ève Dubé receives funding from the Canada’s Biomedical Research Fund, Canada Foundation for Innovation, to support the work of the Bridge Research Consortium. The BRC is one of 19 projects funded to support Canada’s Biomanufacturing and Life Sciences Strategy. She also receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Fonds de recherche du Québec to conduct research on vaccine acceptance.

    Janice E. Graham receives funding from CIHR and PHAC.

    Noni MacDonald receives funding from CIHR, CIRN grants related to immunization as well as PHAC and CPHA consultation fees related to immunization. She is a member of the Canadian Paediatric Society and the International Pediatric Society, a donor to Canadian Public Health Association and WHO, and on board of the journal Vaccine.

    – ref. It’s World Immunization Week. How prepared is Canada if vaccines are needed for a new pandemic? – https://theconversation.com/its-world-immunization-week-how-prepared-is-canada-if-vaccines-are-needed-for-a-new-pandemic-254186

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s aggressive actions against free speech speak a lot louder than his words defending it

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Daniel Hall, Professor of Justice and Community Studies & Political Science, Miami University

    Free speech in the U.S. is being curtailed by the Trump administration. Malte Mueller, fStop/Getty Images

    Harvard University took the extraordinary step of suing the Trump administration on April 21, 2025, claiming that the pressure campaign mounted on the school by the president and his Cabinet to force viewpoint diversity on campus violated the Constitution’s guarantees of free speech.

    “Defendants’ actions are unlawful,” Harvard’s lawsuit states. “The First Amendment does not permit the Government to ‘interfere with private actors’ speech to advance its own vision of ideological balance.’”

    Yet in his first term, President Donald J. Trump declared that free speech mattered.

    Trump issued the “Executive Order Restoring Free Speech and Ending Federal Censorship” on March 21, 2019. In it, he expressed the importance of free inquiry and open debate to education and directed federal officials to use the federal government’s funding of higher education to ensure that universities promote free inquiry.

    Channeling free-speech champions Benjamin Franklin and James Madison, Trump wrote that “free inquiry is an essential feature of our Nation’s democracy.”

    As a professor of constitutional, criminal and comparative law, and as a citizen who enjoys his liberty, I agree.

    Free speech is fundamental to human progress. Scientific, medical, technological and social advancements all rely on the free flow of information. Robust discussion and disagreement are equally important to maintaining a healthy constitutional republic.

    In the words of the late U.S. Supreme Court Justice Robert Jackson, “If there is any fixed star in our constitutional constellation, it is that no official, high or petty, can prescribe what shall be orthodox in politics, nationalism, religion, or other matters of opinion or force citizens to confess by word or act their faith therein.”

    The First Amendment’s free speech and press clauses protect all forms of expression – oral, print, digital and artistic – from governmental interference or punishment.

    Of the many types of speech, political speech is the most protected.

    On the first day of his second term in office, Trump issued another free speech executive order. It affirms the administration’s commitment to free speech, directs that tax money is not used to abridge free speech and instructs federal employees to “identify and take appropriate action to correct past misconduct by the Federal Government related to censorship of protected speech.”

    In a vacuum, Trump’s orders appear to bode well for free speech.

    But what is important is free speech reality, not rhetoric. Three months into his second term, where does Trump stand?

    The many interconnected orders, letters, statements and actions of Trump’s White House make an assessment of any positive effects difficult. On the other hand, the Trump administration has clearly violated and chilled free speech on many occasions.

    At his second inauguration, Donald Trump promised to ‘stop all government censorship’ and ‘bring back free speech.’

    Repression and retaliation

    Attempts to silence the president’s adversaries are developing as a pattern.

    Law firms and attorneys who have sued or prosecuted Trump, or represented his adversaries, have been targeted for retribution and concessions. It began with an executive order on March 6, 2025, directed at the U.S.-based global law firm Perkins Coie, which had once represented Trump’s opponent in the 2016 presidential race, Hillary Clinton. A second order was issued on March 14, 2025, against Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison because it once employed an attorney who investigated Trump. Subsequently, at least six other prominent law firms were also targeted.

    Several law firms acceded to the president’s demands, agreeing to accept clients without regard to political beliefs, to eliminate DEI practices, and to perform pro bono work valued in the hundreds of millions of dollars for causes Trump supports.

    The firms that didn’t accede to the president’s demands had their security clearances removed, access to federal buildings restricted, and were banned from working for federal agencies. A few of the firms that didn’t relent have won temporary injunctions barring the administration’s actions against them.

    The nonpartisan free speech advocacy organization Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression decried the orders as threatening the foundations of justice and free speech. In one of several challenges to these orders, U.S. District Judge Beryl Howell wrote on March 12, 2025, that Trump’s order appeared motivated by “retaliatory animus” and concluded that it “runs head on into the wall of First Amendment protections.” Two other federal courts reached similar conclusions.

    In the first three months of his second term, Trump withdrew Secret Service protection of several prominent critics who are former federal government officials, including John Bolton, a former Trump national security adviser. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, his top aide, Brian Hook, and former high-level health official Anthony Fauci also lost their security protection.

    It is hard to imagine that these decisions won’t have a profoundly chilling effect on potential critics of the president, especially since the revocations were publicly announced and each individual has been the subject of credible threats resulting from their governmental service.

    Targeting the press

    A similar pattern exists for journalists, where Trump is using his power to punish organizations whose reporting he doesn’t like.

    AP journalists were banned from the White House and Air Force One on Feb. 11, 2025, for refusing to refer to the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America, the new name Trump had ordered for the body of water. On April 9, 2025, this ban was found to violate the First Amendment by a judge nominated by Trump during his first term.

    Denouncing CNN and MSNBC as “illegal” and claiming they are paid political operatives, Trump suggested they should be investigated during a speech at the U.S. Department of Justice.

    Trump effectively closed Voice of America, after 83 years of continuous broadcasting, for being “anti-Trump” and radical in its views. By charter, the broadcaster represents “America, not any single segment of American society,” with “accurate, objective, and comprehensive” news and “a balanced and comprehensive projection of significant American thought and institutions” through television, radio, internet, social media and satellite broadcasts to peoples around the world.

    The Federal Communications Commission has initiated regulatory actions against the licenses of several television stations for broadcasts that have been accused by the President of being anti-Trump or biased in favor of Kamala Harris. Early in the process, the outcomes of these actions are to be determined.

    Protesters in Somerville, Mass., on March 26, 2025, demand the release of Rumeysa Ozturk, a Turkish student at Tufts University, whose recent arrest by federal agents is seen as an assault on free speech.
    AP Photo/Michael Casey

    Pressuring universities and students

    Other administration actions, I believe, raise serious free speech issues.

    Harvard isn’t the only university feeling pressure.

    The administration is threatening to withhold federal money from universities as a way to coerce many of them to comply with administration policies in ways that implicate free speech and in some instances violate legal processes for the withholding of federal support.

    Some of the Trump administration’s recent immigration enforcement efforts have targeted international students who are in the U.S. lawfully but who participated in Palestinian rights protests and disagreed with Israel’s actions during the war in Gaza.

    The administration claims that some students whose visas have been revoked were either Hamas supporters or violated criminal laws. The administration has also said that many students are being deported under broad authority the secretary of state has to deport those deemed a danger to national security.

    Democracy and free speech

    In the past decade, the U.S. has fallen in press freedom, rule of law and democratic governance, resulting in the classification of a “flawed democracy” by the Economist Intelligence Unit, a democratic watchdog. Unsurprisingly, there has been a simultaneous rise in public support for authoritarianism. These changes make support for free speech increasingly important.

    On March 4, 2025, Trump declared in a speech before a joint session of Congress that he “stopped all government censorship and brought free speech back to America.”

    The record doesn’t support this claim.

    Daniel Hall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump’s aggressive actions against free speech speak a lot louder than his words defending it – https://theconversation.com/trumps-aggressive-actions-against-free-speech-speak-a-lot-louder-than-his-words-defending-it-252706

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Physician spending trends in Canada: Why increased costs may not mean more primary care services

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ruolz Ariste, Adjunct Professor, Industrial Relations, Université du Québec en Outaouais, and Adjunct Professor, School of Public Policy and Administration, Carleton University

    In 2023, Canada ranked last in access to primary health care among 10 high-income countries.
     (Shutterstock)

    Access to physician services remains a challenge in Canada, particularly in primary care. Though this reality has been often eclipsed by the tariffs issue during the 2025 federal election, it continues to be a fundamental concern for Canadians.

    In 2023, Canada ranked last in access to primary health care among 10 high-income countries. Yet, Canada ranked among the highest for health spending as a percentage of GDP, significantly outranked only by the United States.

    Moreover, public spending on physicians has systematically risen during the first quarter of this century. The two most common proposals to improve this access are: increasing the number of physicians and/or the payment per service to physicians.

    As a health economist researcher, my focus is on health workforce planning and efficiency. Given limited resources and budget constraints, what is the best way for policymakers to improve access to heath care: Paying our physicians more, or increasing their numbers?

    Minding physician spending

    Total spending on physicians increased to $47.5 billion in 2023, from $13.2 billion in 2000, growing an average of 5.7 per cent per year (known as the average annual growth rate (AAGR)). This includes physicians on fee-for-service (FFS) plan — those who bill for each individual service or procedure they provide to a patient — and non-FFS plan, such as salary or capitation (payment per each enrolled patient) in which physicians don’t have to bill for each individual service or procedure to get paid.

    The key policy question is whether this additional spending was used to buy more services (medical consultations, visits and procedures). It is important to understand if Canada paid more for the same number of medical services or if Canadians are getting more bang for their buck.

    Using an accounting approach, this increase in spending can be broken down into increase in number of services, and increase in unit cost of service.
    In the 2022-23 fiscal year, physicians provided a total of 359.1 million services versus 263.8 million in 2000 (assuming that physicians on non-FFS plans have similar productivity to those on FFS plans). This translates to an average growth rate of 1.4 per cent per year.

    Meanwhile, cost per service increased to $90.42 in 2023 compared to $36.66 in 2000 — an average increase of four per cent per year. This suggests that most of the increase in spending (70 per cent) was used to cover increasing costs per service.

    It should be noted that average annual growth in unit cost represents sector-specific inflation. As such, it includes two components: general inflation and a “health premium” defined as inflation above and beyond general inflation. Considering that general inflation for the period (as measured by the CPI-all items) was on average 2.2 per cent per year, growth in inflation-adjusted unit cost for physicians was 1.8 per cent per year. That would be the “health premium” for physicians.

    Still, some of the increase in spending was used to buy more services throughout this period. How could the access issue be explained? That’s where one needs to factor in population growth and aging: two demographic factors responsible for increases in number of services.

    During this period spanning over two decades, Canada’s population grew at 1.1 per cent per year; this results in a mere 0.3 per cent growth in number of services per person per year (9.16 in 2023 from 8.65 in 2000).

    Because aging impact is estimated to be at least 0.8 per cent annually, factoring it in a full demographic adjustment would result in a decline of 0.5 per cent in number of services per capita over this period; which would explain a poorer access to medical services in Canada.

    Does the number of doctors affect the equation?

    We consistently learn that the number of physicians has been increasing. In fact, there were 82,184 physicians providing clinical services in 2023 as opposed to 49,281 in 2000, which represents average growth of 2.2 per cent per year.

    However, possibly due to shifts in the demographic composition of the workforce and better work-life balance, each of these physicians provides fewer services. For example, the number of services per physician per year in 2023 was 4,370 compared to 5,353 in 2000, a decline of 0.9 per cent per year.

    Other sources have reported that trends in weekly worked hours of Canadian physicians has declined from about 53 hours before 2000 to 46 hours in recent years.

    Why access seems more challenging for primary care services

    Family physicians are the gatekeepers and first point of contact of the Canadian health-care system. Over the 2000-2023 period, their numbers have increased less than specialists (AAGR of 2.1 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively). In other words, while in 2000, slightly more than half of physicians were family physicians, in 2023 the situation reversed, and slightly more than half of physicians were specialists.

    Nurse practitioners emerged in the primary care setting in the last decade. This workforce grew from 3,768 in 2014 to 8,302 in 2023, increasing by an average of 9.2 per cent per year. Still, they are not enough to fully make up for the deficit.

    An important consideration is that family physicians tend to benefit less from medical technological improvement than specialists. A few specific specialties, for example ophthalmology, profit the most from the huge productivity gains in the medical field. They could work fewer hours and still increase the number of services they provide and their income, which family physicians can do to a lesser extent.

    In fact, for physicians who received at least $100,000 in fee-for-service payments per year, average gross FFS payments per ophthalmologist have grown almost three times more than that for a family physician between 2013 and 2023.

    Implications for decision makers

    Simply throwing more money into the system will not be enough to address the primary care access issue. It is important to ensure this additional money will buy mostly additional services, contrary to what we have shown in the past.

    On the supply side, projections for the number of required physicians will need to account for the reduced number of hours worked. That means that more family physicians are needed just to provide the same number of services, let alone increase it.

    On the demand side, the aging population translates into more services used per capita, but also increased severity of cases. The medical workforce itself is also aging, impacting both the supply and the demand sides. Policymakers need to work with institutions involved in physicians planning and training such as the Association of Faculties of Medicine of Canada, the Medical Council of Canada to ramp up training of family physicians. Extending training and scope of practice of nurse practitioners would also help.

    Finally, the family physician category could be made more attractive by offering a more balanced payment scheme between family physicians and specialists.

    Ruolz Ariste does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Physician spending trends in Canada: Why increased costs may not mean more primary care services – https://theconversation.com/physician-spending-trends-in-canada-why-increased-costs-may-not-mean-more-primary-care-services-253675

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine’s path to peace appears to be rapidly disappearing

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor

    It’s getting hard to figure out who all the US-sponsored talks over ending the conflict in Ukraine are supposed to benefit. Listening to Donald Trump over recent weeks, you could be forgiven for thinking it’s all about him.

    In the past 48 hours, the US president has berated both the Ukrainian president, Volodymr Zelensky, and Russia’s Vladimir Putin for apparently dragging their heels over an agreement.

    At present it’s Putin who is on the naughty step (although as we know this can change quite rapidly). After Russia launched strikes against Kyiv overnight on Wednesday, killing eight people and injuring dozens more, Trump used his TruthSocial platform to give the Russian president a piece of his mind.


    TruthSocial

    But hours previously, the US president had been giving Zelensky both barrels after he rejected a peace proposal that included the US recognising Crimea as part of Russia. Trump wrote: “It’s inflammatory statements like Zelenskyy’s that makes it so difficult to settle this War. He has nothing to boast about! The situation for Ukraine is dire — He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country.”

    For the past week or so, US officials, including the president and his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, have been warning that if a deal isn’t done “in a matter of days” they could just decide to walk away.

    Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.

    It’s hard to see how there is a credible pathway to peace at the moment, write Stefan Wolff and Tetyana Malyarenko, international security experts at the University of Birmingham and the National University Odesa Law Academy, respectively. They point out that even if all sides can agree to a formula for a ceasefire (remembering that Russia couldn’t even hold to the agreed truce over the Easter holiday) then a lasting peace deal that is supposed to follow is even more difficult to imagine.

    And, as the abortive attempts to end the war drag on and Russia’s attritional tactics continue, at a massive cost – both economically and in human lives – there are signs that western resolve and unity is coming under pressure. Partly it’s because many of Ukraine’s allies, particularly in Europe, are already scrambling to work out how they might adjust their own security arrangements in the eventuality of a new world order developing, dominated by the US, China and Russia, in which Washington’s friends find themselves on the outside.

    Then there’s the inescapable question of whether Putin can be trusted to hold to any deal he strikes, given the likelihood of the US president’s attention wandering once he has been able to boast of brokering an “end” to the war. As Wolff and Malyarenko put it: “Given Russia’s track record of reneging on the Minsk ceasefire agreements of September 2014 and February 2015, investing everything in a ceasefire deal might turn out not just a self-fulfilling but a self-defeating prophecy for Ukraine and its supporters.”



    Read more:
    Ukraine war: path to peace looks increasingly narrow as Kyiv’s western backers scramble to focus on their own interests

    As Trump 2.0 nears the 100-day mark (more of which next week), it’s worth pausing to ask what the American public thinks about the war in Ukraine. Paul Whiteley of the University of Essex has been looking at polling on the issue over the past six months or so and concludes that the US president looks out of step with the people when it comes to what Whiteley construes as Trump’s apparently Russia-friendly approach. Whiteley quotes a recent Economist/YouGov poll which finds that far more people see Ukraine as an ally that view Russia in the same light.

    Meanwhile a much larger poll taken at the time of the US election last year, found that significant numbers of people support sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine and only a slightly smaller proportion of respondents backed providing military aid.

    American attitudes to policy alternatives for dealing with the Ukraine War:


    Cooperative Election Survey, CC BY-SA

    “A key point is that only 23% said the US should not get involved,” Whiteley concludes. “There is not much support among Americans for abandoning Ukraine.”



    Read more:
    Do Americans support Trump’s attitudes to Ukraine and Russia? Here’s what recent data shows

    India reels from terror attack

    Tensions are high between India and Pakistan after at least 26 people were killed in the bitterly contested Kashmir region. The atrocity in a the picturesque resport of Pahalgam, targeted tourists – specifically Hindu men. Victims were told to recite verses from the Qur’an before being killed if they couldn’t.

    A hitherto relatively unknown group, the Resistance Front (TRF) has claimed responsibility for the attack. But Sudhir Selvaraj, a specialist in religious nationalism at the University of Bradford, says that TRF is actually associated with, or a front for, the notorious Lashkar-e-Taiba (lET) which carried out the 2008 Mumbai massacre in which at least 176 people were murdered.

    Selvaraj says TRF has deliberately chosen a non-Islamist sounding name. “By doing so,” he writes “it supposedly aims to project a “neutral” (read as non-religious) front, rather emphasising the fight for Kashmiri nationalism.“



    Read more:
    What is the Resistance Front? An expert explains the terror group that carried out the latest Kashmir attack?

    Coming just as the tourist season is getting under way in Kashmir, the attack has undermined the strategy of the Modi government to portray the region as a major attraction for visitors. Nitasha Kaul, an expert in Hindu nationalism at the University of Westminster, says this is mainly aimed at the Indian public as a propaganda coup to show the success of the 2019 decision to split Kashmir in two and reduce it to the status of a “union territory” run from New Delhi.

    In reality, she writes Kashmiris – especially Kashmiri Muslims – have little say in their own affairs and are vulnerable to reprisals in response to any attacks by Pakistani or Pakistani-backed militants. Kashmir’s chief minister, Omar Abdullah, was actually excluded from security briefings when India’s home minister, Amit Shah, visited Kashmir after the attack.

    Meanwhile some of the noisier Hindutva (Hindu nationalist) voices in politics and the media are demanding reprisals against Pakistan. It’s a very dangerous moment, Kaul concludes.



    Read more:
    Kashmir attacks: Kashmiris trapped between tourism and terrorism as an insecure nation looks to Modi for accountability

    Remembering Pope Francis I

    We’ve had some standout stories about the life and times of Jorge Mario Bergoglio, better known to the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics as Pope Francis I. We’ve covered his burning ambition to modernise the Catholic church, as well as his achievements in promoting women to more senior church positions than any potiff before him.

    And we’ve considered his influence on the global environmental movement which, as Oxford theologian Celia Deane-Drummond writes, made her feel as if “something momentous was happening at the heart of the church”.

    But the anecdote about the late pope which moved me the most was related by Sara Silvestri of City, who recalls meeting Pope Francis back in 2019. It was as part of a symposium at the Vatican at which migration, an issue she’d been deeply engaged with in her work, was the central issue for discussion. Silvestri recalls delivering a research paper and then being invited with to meet Francis in a room next to the Sistine Chapel.

    “Francis made a speech and we greeted him one by one,” she recalled this week. “I had my 21 month-old daughter with me that day, thinking of the rare opportunity we would both enjoy. But I’d underestimated the length of the formalities involved. My daughter screamed ‘Open the doors, let me out!’ through the whole of the pope’s speech. I was distraught, but Francis responded very gently to the disruption.”

    Francis she says, stopped what he was saying and “commented how sweet and lovely it was to hear the voice of a child. I could feel it was not just a platitude – he meant it.”



    Read more:
    Pope Francis: ‘ethical helmsman’ whose feel for international relations steered church in turbulent times

    World Affairs Briefing from The Conversation UK is available as a weekly email newsletter. Click here to get updates directly in your inbox.

    – ref. Ukraine’s path to peace appears to be rapidly disappearing – https://theconversation.com/ukraines-path-to-peace-appears-to-be-rapidly-disappearing-255272

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –