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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: AI-generated images can exploit how your mind works − here’s why they fool you and how to spot them

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Arryn Robbins, Assistant Professor of Psychology, University of Richmond

    A beautiful kitchen to scroll past – but check out the clock. Tiny Homes via Facebook

    I’m more of a scroller than a poster on social media. Like many people, I wind down at the end of the day with a scroll binge, taking in videos of Italian grandmothers making pasta or baby pygmy hippos frolicking.

    For a while, my feed was filled with immaculately designed tiny homes, fueling my desire for minimalist paradise. Then, I started seeing AI-generated images; many contained obvious errors such as staircases to nowhere or sinks within sinks. Yet, commenters rarely pointed them out, instead admiring the aesthetic.

    These images were clearly AI-generated and didn’t depict reality. Did people just not notice? Not care?

    As a cognitive psychologist, I’d guess “yes” and “yes.” My expertise is in how people process and use visual information. I primarily investigate how people look for objects and information visually, from the mundane searches of daily life, such as trying to find a dropped earring, to more critical searches, like those conducted by radiologists or search-and-rescue teams.

    With my understanding of how people process images and notice − or don’t notice − detail, it’s not surprising to me that people aren’t tuning in to the fact that many images are AI-generated.

    We’ve been here before

    The struggle to detect AI-generated images mirrors past detection challenges such as spotting photoshopped images or computer-generated images in movies.

    But there’s a key difference: Photo editing and CGI require intentional design by artists, while AI images are generated by algorithms trained on datasets, often without human oversight. The lack of oversight can lead to imperfections or inconsistencies that can feel unnatural, such as the unrealistic physics or lack of consistency between frames that characterize what’s sometimes called “AI slop.”

    Despite these differences, studies show people struggle to distinguish real images from synthetic ones, regardless of origin. Even when explicitly asked to identify images as real, synthetic or AI-generated, accuracy hovers near the level of chance, meaning people did only a little better than if they’d just guessed.

    In everyday interactions, where you aren’t actively scrutinizing images, your ability to detect synthetic content might even be weaker.

    Attention shapes what you see, what you miss

    Spotting errors in AI images requires noticing small details, but the human visual system isn’t wired for that when you’re casually scrolling. Instead, while online, people take in the gist of what they’re viewing and can overlook subtle inconsistencies.

    Visual attention operates like a zoom lens: You scan broadly to get an overview of your environment or phone screen, but fine details require focused effort. Human perceptual systems evolved to quickly assess environments for any threats to survival, with sensitivity to sudden changes − such as a quick-moving predator − sacrificing precision for speed of detection.

    This speed-accuracy trade-off allows for rapid, efficient processing, which helped early humans survive in natural settings. But it’s a mismatch with modern tasks such as scrolling through devices, where small mistakes or unusual details in AI-generated images can easily go unnoticed.

    People also miss things they aren’t actively paying attention to or looking for. Psychologists call this inattentional blindness: Focusing on one task causes you to overlook other details, even obvious ones. In the famous invisible gorilla study, participants asked to count basketball passes in a video failed to notice someone in a gorilla suit walking through the middle of the scene.

    If you’re counting how many passes the people in white make, do you even notice someone walk through in a gorilla suit?

    Similarly, when your focus is on the broader content of an AI image, such as a cozy tiny home, you’re less likely to notice subtle distortions. In a way, the sixth finger in an AI image is today’s invisible gorilla − hiding in plain sight because you’re not looking for it.

    Efficiency over accuracy in thinking

    Our cognitive limitations go beyond visual perception. Human thinking uses two types of processing: fast, intuitive thinking based on mental shortcuts, and slower, analytical thinking that requires effort. When scrolling, our fast system likely dominates, leading us to accept images at face value.

    Adding to this issue is the tendency to seek information that confirms your beliefs or reject information that goes against them. This means AI-generated images are more likely to slip by you when they align with your expectations or worldviews. If an AI-generated image of a basketball player making an impossible shot jibes with a fan’s excitement, they might accept it, even if something feels exaggerated.

    While not a big deal for tiny home aesthetics, these issues become concerning when AI-generated images may be used to influence public opinion. For example, research shows that people tend to assume images are relevant to accompanying text. Even when the images provide no actual evidence, they make people more likely to accept the text’s claims as true.

    Misleading real or generated images can make false claims seem more believable and even cause people to misremember real events. AI-generated images have the power to shape opinions and spread misinformation in ways that are difficult to counter.

    Beating the machine

    While AI gets better at detecting AI, humans need tools to do the same. Here’s how:

    1. Trust your gut. If something feels off, it probably is. Your brain expertly recognizes objects and faces, even under varying conditions. Perhaps you’ve experienced what psychologists call the uncanny valley and felt unease with certain humanoid faces. This experience shows people can detect anomalies, even when they can’t fully explain what’s wrong.
    2. Scan for clues. AI struggles with certain elements: hands, text, reflections, lighting inconsistencies and unnatural textures. If an image seems suspicious, take a closer look.
    3. Think critically. Sometimes, AI generates photorealistic images with impossible scenarios. If you see a political figure casually surprising baristas or a celebrity eating concrete, ask yourself: Does this make sense? If not, it’s probably fake.
    4. Check the source. Is the poster a real person? Reverse image search can help trace a picture’s origin. If the metadata is missing, it might be generated by AI.

    AI-generated images are becoming harder to spot. During scrolling, the brain processes visuals quickly, not critically, making it easy to miss details that reveal a fake. As technology advances, slow down, look closer and think critically.

    Arryn Robbins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. AI-generated images can exploit how your mind works − here’s why they fool you and how to spot them – https://theconversation.com/ai-generated-images-can-exploit-how-your-mind-works-heres-why-they-fool-you-and-how-to-spot-them-246867

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Tiny cut marks on animal bone fossils reveal that human ancestors were in Romania 1.95 million years ago

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Briana Pobiner, Research Scientist and Museum Educator, Smithsonian Institution

    Several fossils with possible cut marks from Grăunceanu, Romania. Briana Pobiner

    Looking again through the magnifying lens at the fossil’s surface, one of us, Sabrina Curran, took a deep breath. Illuminated by a strong light positioned nearly parallel to the surface of the bone, the V-shaped lines were clearly there on the fossil. There was no mistaking what they meant.

    She’d seen them before, on bones that were butchered with stone tools about 1.8 million years ago, from a site called Dmanisi in Georgia. These were cut marks made by a human ancestor wielding a stone tool. After staring at them for what felt like an eternity − but was probably only a few seconds − she turned to our colleagues and said, “Hey … I think I found something.”

    What she’d spotted in 2017 was our team’s first evidence that hominins butchered several animals at the site of Grăunceanu, in Romania, at least 1.95 million years ago. Before this discovery, those other cut marks from Dmanisi were the oldest well-dated evidence in Eurasia of the presence of hominins − our direct human ancestors.

    Other scientists have reported sites in Eurasia and northern Africa with either hominin fossils, stone tools or butchered animal bones from around this time. Our recently published research adds to this story with well-dated, verified evidence that hominins of some kind had spread to this part of the world by around 2 million years ago.

    Romanian site with fossilized animal bones

    A 1960s photo of fossil bones before they were excavated from the ground at Grăunceanu, Romania.
    Emil Racoviță Institute of Speleology

    A little background on Grăunceanu: This open-air site was originally excavated in the 1960s, and researchers found thousands of fossil animal bones there. It’s one of the best-known Early Pleistocene sites in East-Central Europe. Many of the fossil animal bones are quite complete and at the time of excavation lay together as they were positioned in life. The original deposition was called a “bone nest” because of how densely packed the bones were.

    If you were to stand on the hillside surrounding Grăunceanu almost 2 million years ago, it would likely have seemed familiar: a river channel surrounded by a forest that fades into more open grasslands to the foothills. Occasionally that river floods its banks, inundating the valley with rich soils, providing nutrients for the plants that the resident animals feed on. All pretty familiar, until you look more closely at those animals: ostriches, pangolins, giraffes, saber-toothed cats and hyenas − in Europe!

    It’s the fossil bones of these ancient animal inhabitants that were excavated at Grăunceanu. Unfortunately, most of the excavation records and provenance data for the site have been lost. Even without those, though, the Grăunceanu fossils are so remarkably preserved that they offer up a wealth of paleontological information.

    A few years after finding those first cut marks, our team, including biological anthropologist Claire Terhune, zooarchaeologist Samantha Gogol, and paleoanthropologist Chris Robinson, spent several weeks carefully studying all 4,524 Grăunceanu fossils, looking for more marks.

    We examined all surfaces of every fossil bone with a magnifying lens and low-angled light. Most of these fossils have root etching on them − sinuous, shallow, overlapping marks made by plant roots that grew nearby. But whenever we saw a linear mark that looked interesting, we took an impression of that mark with dental molding material.

    Briana Pobiner and Claire Terhune take molds of marks of interest on Grăunceanu fossils.
    Sabrina Curran

    Confirming they’re cut marks

    We can’t go back in a time machine to watch when these marks were made. Yes, ancient human butchers wielding stone tools would leave marks on bone. But mammalian predators or crocodiles could also leave marks with their sharp teeth. Sediments in rivers could scratch any bones rolling around in the water. Large animals walking across the landscape could move and scrape bones with their steps.

    So how can we be confident that they’re cut marks? That’s where our zooarchaeologist collaborators Michael Pante and Trevor Keevil came in.

    Close-up of a cut-marked bone from Grăunceanu, Romania.
    Sabrina Curran

    Within the past decade, Pante developed a novel method for identifying the source of marks left on bones. The first step is capturing precise 3D measurements of the mark impressions using an advanced microscope called a noncontact 3D optical profiler.

    Then they compare the 3D shape data from the ancient marks with a reference set of 898 marks on modern bones made by known processes, including stone tool butchery, carnivore feeding and sedimentary abrasion.

    This new method adds to the more qualitative, descriptive criteria many researchers, including our team, use to make mark identifications. For instance, we consider things such as mark location: Is the mark near a muscle attachment site, where you might expect to find a cut mark if a hominin were removing meat from a bone?

    Based on our analyses, we determined that 20 Grăunceanu fossils are marked by cuts, with eight displaying high-confidence cut marks. Most of those marks are on fossils of hoofed animals, including a few deer; one is a small carnivore leg bone. When we could identify the type of bone, the cut marks are always in anatomical locations consistent with cutting meat off bones.

    Dating the site

    While the fossil species present can give us a rough age estimate of the site, we used uranium-lead (U-Pb) dating to get more precise age information. This technique relies on the fact that naturally occurring uranium decays over long but well-known periods of time to eventually transform into lead. Geologists use the ratio of these two elements like a radiometric clock to determine how old something is.

    When one of us, Virgil Drăgușin, asked geochemist Jon Woodhead to use U-Pb dating to estimate the age of the Grăunceanu fossils based on several small tooth fragments, he was reluctant. Teeth do not usually work well for this dating technique. But he agreed to a test run, and to his surprise the teeth he tried worked very well.

    Together with his colleague John Hellstrom, they calculated a much more precise date for the site. We now know the Grăunceanu site is older than 1.95 million years.

    All of this data together − the very well-calibrated and tightly clustered dates of the specimens plus at least 20 cut-marked bones verified both by qualitative and quantitative methods − provides very reliable evidence that hominins were indeed in Eurasia by at least 1.95 million years ago, even though there are no hominin fossils from Grăunceanu.

    An artist’s reconstruction of the Early Pleistocene landscape around Grăunceanu.
    Emi Olin

    Sometimes when we look through our magnifying lenses, it almost feels like we can peer into the past. That’s impossible − but we can piece together lines of evidence to paint a clearer picture of what happened in the past at Grăunceanu.

    Now, imagining the view 1.95 million years ago, we see scenes of deer cautiously drinking from the river, majestic mammoths in the distance, a herd of horses grazing, a saber-toothed cat stalking a large monkey, a bear teaching her cubs to hunt … and a small group of hominins butchering a deer.

    Briana Pobiner has received funding from the National Science Foundation, the Leakey Foundation, and the Wenner-Gren Foundation.

    Sabrina Curran has received funding from The Leakey Foundation, National Science Foundation, and Ohio University.

    Virgil Drãgușin received funding from CNCS-UEFISCDI (Department of Education, Romanian Government).

    – ref. Tiny cut marks on animal bone fossils reveal that human ancestors were in Romania 1.95 million years ago – https://theconversation.com/tiny-cut-marks-on-animal-bone-fossils-reveal-that-human-ancestors-were-in-romania-1-95-million-years-ago-249838

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Keir Starmer’s psychological profile is different from other prime ministers – and what it means for his dealings with Donald Trump

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Consuelo Thiers, Lecturer in International Relations, University of Edinburgh

    Flickr/10 Downing Street, CC BY-NC-ND

    The question “Who is Keir Starmer?” echoed across headlines before and after he took office in 2024. Despite leading the Labour party for years, his personality, leadership style and core motivations remained something of a mystery. Now in office, that question matters more than ever. In moments of crisis, a national leader’s psychology plays a decisive role.

    The UK faces a difficult foreign policy landscape. Post-Brexit Britain is still rebuilding alliances amid economic strain and Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency has put a more transactional, Russia-friendly approach in the White House. The UK’s balancing act has become even more precarious. Starmer must back Ukraine, strengthen ties with the EU and manage an unpredictable relationship with Trump. For any leader, it’s a high-stakes task.

    Traditional international relations theories often treat states as rational actors, with little attention paid to who is making the decisions. In this view, leaders are interchangeable; internal traits are “black-boxed” and considered irrelevant.

    But political psychology challenges this. Leaders are not all the same. How they perceive and respond to constraints – be they economic, institutional, or geopolitical – varies dramatically.

    Faced with similar conditions, different leaders make different choices. Their decisions are shaped by traits, motivations, emotions and deeply held beliefs.

    Starmer: psychologically different to other PMs

    Political psychology provides tools for assessing leaders by analysing their public statements. Since traditional psychological assessments are rarely feasible, researchers rely on at-a-distance methods, based on the premise that the way leaders speak and the language they use can reveal underlying traits, motivations and beliefs.

    One of the most widely used approaches is leadership trait analysis (LTA), developed by psychologist Margaret Hermann. It employs computational content analysis to systematically code language and produce comparable personality profiles.

    To reduce the influence of speechwriters, the analysis focuses on spontaneous material such as interviews and press conferences. The framework identifies seven core traits that are particularly relevant to foreign policy decision-making.

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    Applying this framework to Starmer’s public appearances since taking office reveals notable differences between his profile and that of the average UK prime minister.

    Of the seven core traits measured by the framework, Starmer scores within the typical range on task orientation, in-group bias, self-confidence, and conceptual complexity. But he stands out in three areas: distrust, belief in his ability to control events, and need for power. In these, he scores significantly above average.

    These traits suggest a leader who is confident in his influence, driven to shape outcomes, and inclined to assert control when faced with obstacles. Leaders high in belief in their ability to control events tend to be proactive and view challenges as manageable. When paired with a high need for power, this reflects a strong drive to steer the political environment, often through strategic manoeuvring and behind-the-scenes influence.

    These leaders test boundaries and thrive in direct, high-stakes negotiations. This combination has been seen in figures like Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair.

    Compared with his most recent predecessors – Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Boris Johnson – Starmer shares certain traits but also diverges in meaningful ways. Like Johnson and Sunak, he shows a strong belief in his ability to control political events and a high need for power.

    However, what sets him apart most clearly is his elevated level of distrust, which surpasses even Sunak’s. Research links this trait to risk-prone, uncooperative leadership styles.

    Distrustful leaders often view others as potential threats, are less inclined to compromise, and fall back on control rather than collaboration. It’s a hallmark of hawkish leadership and has been associated with costly policy errors, such as George W. Bush’s misjudgement of Iraq’s weapons capabilities.

    At the same time, Starmer differs from Johnson and Sunak in his greater cognitive complexity. He sees nuance, tolerates ambiguity and avoids black-and-white thinking.

    He appears more open to new information and more flexible in adapting his approach. While Johnson and Sunak were more people-focused and scored low on task orientation, Starmer brings a balanced leadership style, combining interpersonal awareness with a clear focus on results. He can build relationships while staying goal-driven – an essential combination in today’s global landscape.

    Starmer and Trump

    What does this suggest about Starmer’s potential relationship with Trump? While research on leader-to-leader dynamics is still developing, Trump’s leadership profile is well-established.

    He scores high in self-confidence, low in task orientation, places a strong emphasis on loyalty, and shows high levels of distrust. His self-confidence means he rarely seeks disconfirming information, often filtering reality to fit his beliefs.

    His low task focus reflects a preference for group loyalty over detailed policy. Combined with a deep suspicion of others, this results in a transactional, uncompromising leadership style centred on personal allegiance.

    This presents challenges for Starmer, whose high distrust and tendency to defy constraints could complicate efforts to build mutual understanding. Yet his adaptability, pragmatism, and balanced focus on people and tasks, combined with confidence in his ability to shape outcomes, may help him navigate this volatile relationship.

    His assertive style, however, could still surprise or alienate some supporters as he makes bold moves beyond expectations.

    Starmer’s leadership may lack the charisma or flair of his predecessors, but his personality profile reveals a distinct and consequential approach to power. Confident, strategic, and distrustful, he is not a passive figurehead but a leader likely to assert control, challenge limits, and drive his vision.

    When the stakes are this high, Starmer’s psychology may not just influence Britain’s path – it could determine it.

    Consuelo Thiers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Keir Starmer’s psychological profile is different from other prime ministers – and what it means for his dealings with Donald Trump – https://theconversation.com/why-keir-starmers-psychological-profile-is-different-from-other-prime-ministers-and-what-it-means-for-his-dealings-with-donald-trump-254242

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How insects and the smallest animals survive Antarctica

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alex Dittrich, Senior Lecturer in Zoology, Nottingham Trent University

    Ruslan Suseynov/Shutterstock

    In Antarctica’s freezing depths, tiny creatures have mastered survival tactics that could unlock secrets to extreme cold resistance, with implications for science and medicine. Some of the most intense battles against the environment are waged by the smallest of creatures.

    When it’s cold, we, as warm-blooded (endothermic), animals simply put on a coat. Other endotherms, can be large, fat or furry to insulate their body from the cold.

    Generating your own body heat, however, requires a lot of energy. Insects do not do not do this. The heat they need for metabolism and growth comes from the environment. This is partly how they are so abundant around the world. They need less energy to grow compared with warm-blooded animals like mammals and are great at exploiting this advantage.

    Not being able to generate your own body heat is a problem for insects in cold places. They are at the mercy of the environmental temperature and can only grow, develop and feed when it is warm enough. Typically this optimum temperature is around 20°C.

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    Yet some insects survive when temperatures drop below freezing. Generally, when the temperature goes below 0°C this causes damage to animal cells and even death. This cell damage is what causes frostbite.

    Many insects use one of two simple strategies. Freeze tolerance or freeze avoidance.

    For example, they produce cryoprotectants, such as glycerol, which lower their freezing point. This allows the animal to undergo supercooling without freezing. Some generate antifreeze proteins that stop ice crystals from forming in their tissue.

    Mites are common in the Antarctic – there are hundreds of species. Some even live in the nasal cavities of penguins. Penguin noses provide not only a source of food for the mites that feed on the penguins’ dead skin cells, but also a warm environment.

    However, some Antarctic mites, which don’t rely on a host, such as Halozetes belgicae, are freeze-avoiding, using antifreeze compounds to lower the freezing point of their body to well below 0°C.

    One of the smallest land animals in Antarctica are the springtails, related to primitive insects but lacking some of the features we see in modern insects. For example, their mouthparts are internal whereas insects have external mouthparts. One springtail, Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni, can reach a temperature of -38°C before it freezes. It is a small species of only 1-2 millimetres in length but important for the Antarctic soil ecosystem, fulfilling an important function as a decomposer of organic matter.

    The midge species Belgica Antarctica, however, is the only true insect found in Antarctica. It endures many periods of sub-zero temperatures throughout its life and has some unique strategies to deal with the hostile Antarctic climate. This species takes two years to reach adulthood – which in insect time is quite the long while. Some insects such as aphids have multiple generations in a year.

    Belgica Antarctica can tolerate ice crystals forming in its body by minimising the damage they do to tissue. It can also lose water from its body through a semi-permeable outer membrane, removing molecules that could form into ice crystals.

    Perhaps among the most dominant animals in the Antarctic, and indeed anywhere on the planet, are the nematodes. This is a small worm-like animal, that lives in and on top of the soil. Some species like Panagrolaimus davidi can tolerate their body cells freezing. They can also undergo a dormant state called diapause by dehydrating themselves (cryptobiosis), which prevents ice crystals forming in their cells.

    Water bears can wait out the cold for decades.
    Oleh Liubimtsev/Shutterstock

    Another group that uses this method for dealing with the cold Antarctic climate are the tardigrades (also known as water bears). Freezing can extend the life of this animal. In fact, one tardigrade species known as Acutuncus antarcticus was frozen at -20°C and defrosted 30 years later with no ill effects.

    Invertebrates, make up an enormous proportion of all life on earth. There are so many species yet to be discovered, which could help us unlock more secrets to survival in the most extreme environments and how this can benefit humans.

    Freeze tolerance and avoidance strategies, can enhance our knowledge of cryopreservation for medicine and organ transplants, improve food storage, aid climate adaptation and drive innovation in biotechnology and materials science. Studying how these microscopic life forms endure extreme conditions could reveal secrets about the evolution of life on Earth and even offer insights into the future of cryopreservation.

    Alex Dittrich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How insects and the smallest animals survive Antarctica – https://theconversation.com/how-insects-and-the-smallest-animals-survive-antarctica-250314

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US tariffs will squeeze the UK economy. Could the government buy itself some breathing space?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Linda Yueh, Fellow in Economics/Adjunct Professor of Economics, University of Oxford

    William Barton/Shutterstock

    “Iron-clad” and “non-negotiable” is how UK prime minister Keir Starmer recently described the country’s fiscal rules. The government has been coming under pressure to relax the rules and cut itself some financial slack. But according to the PM, these self-imposed restrictions are vital for maintaining UK economic stability.

    What Starmer is referring to is notably the “stability” rule, which says that the UK will balance day-to-day public spending with tax receipts, rather than by borrowing, over the course of the parliament.

    But the volatility unleashed by US president Donald Trump’s tariff plans has challenged this rule. US tariffs could have a significant economic impact on the UK and the world economies.

    Indeed, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that 10% across-the-board tariffs, if they ultimately result in retaliation from China and the EU, could cut global economic growth by 0.5% in 2026.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences. Join The Conversation for free today.

    Unsurprisingly, the UK’s independent economic forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), estimates a similar impact on the UK. It predicts that if the trade wars result in 20% tariff rates between the US and the rest of the world, it could reduce economic growth by as much as 1%. This, it says, could slash the expected UK budget surplus in 2029-30 to “almost zero”.

    And herein lies the challenge for the UK’s fiscal rules. Due to the stability rule, a cut to GDP growth would reduce the tax take. That would require either raising taxes or cutting public spending, due to the rule that this cannot be funded by borrowing.

    Fear that the government’s nearly £10 billion spending buffer will disappear by the end of the parliament puts pressure on the government to say how it would continue to stick to its fiscal rule. If it did result in spending cuts or tax rises, this could dampen economic growth and negatively affect people’s lives. And the decisions would have been taken on the basis of economic forecasts that may not come to pass.

    This is particularly true when the forecasts are based on US tariffs that were imposed and then paused in the space of just a week.



    Read more:
    Hopes of a ‘Brexit benefit’ from tariffs were short-lived. Here’s what Trump’s pause means for the UK

    This problem was also evident in the spring statement in March, when the chancellor of the exchequer, Rachel Reeves, announced spending cuts because the GDP growth forecast had been halved from 2% to 1% for this year.

    And the vast swaths of tariffs later announced by US president Donald Trump could have a similar impact on the UK’s growth rate.

    If the UK were to relax or abolish its fiscal rules, that may ease the pressure to react to a potential growth downgrade – which may or may not happen given the volatile nature of the US tariffs announced so far.

    The debt burden

    But the prime minister and the chancellor have both resisted this change. They are concerned about the UK’s credibility in the eyes of its creditors, who buy government debt in the bond markets based on their assessment of the fiscal position of the British government.

    The UK, like other advanced economies, borrows from bond markets to fund its budget deficits. The government is concerned that with a debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 95%, creditors may be reluctant to lend to the UK. To do so, they might want to charge more.

    A higher interest rate on the UK’s national debt would of course reduce the amount available for public spending.

    The UK spends more than £100 billion a year on debt interest payments. This is more than it spends on education or investment.

    The amount increased rapidly in recent years due to the global financial crisis and the COVID pandemic. And, relatively speaking, the UK spends more money on paying interest on its debt than other G7 economies (3.3% of its GDP compared with the G7 average of 1.7% in 2022).

    Part of this is due to the UK having more inflation-linked debt than comparable economies. About one-quarter of the UK’s debt repayment is linked to inflation, which is double that of Italy, the next highest in the G7, at 12%. And, as everyone in the UK has experienced, inflation has been high in the past few years.

    High inflation over the past few years has squeezed consumers – as well as the government.
    Edinburghcitymom/Shutterstock

    This makes the UK particularly susceptible to movements in bond markets. For instance, if the UK’s borrowing costs were to decline by one percentage point, that would save £21 billion over five years. That’s double the current “fiscal headroom” (effectively the government’s spending buffer) that is at risk from US tariffs.

    Without knowing for sure how bond markets would react, it would be challenging for the government to change its fiscal rules. But it’s also challenging to apply the stability rule during times of high volatility like this. Given the unpredictable nature of the US tariff regime, this debate is likely to go on for some time.

    Linda Yueh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. US tariffs will squeeze the UK economy. Could the government buy itself some breathing space? – https://theconversation.com/us-tariffs-will-squeeze-the-uk-economy-could-the-government-buy-itself-some-breathing-space-254347

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Two key ingredients cause extreme storms with destructive flooding – why these downpours are happening more often

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Shuang-Ye Wu, Professor of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of Dayton

    A powerful storm system that stalled over states from Texas to Ohio for several days in early April 2025 wreaked havoc across the region, with deadly tornadoes, mudslides and flooding as rivers rose. More than a foot of rain fell in several areas.

    As a climate scientist who studies the water cycle, I often get questions about how extreme storms like these form and what climate change has to do with it. There’s a recipe for extreme storms, with two key ingredients.

    Recipe for a storm

    The essential conditions for storms to form with heavy downpours are moisture and atmospheric instability.

    First, in order for a storm to develop, the air needs to contain enough moisture. That moisture comes from water evaporating off oceans, lakes and land, and from trees and other plants.

    The amount of moisture the air can hold depends on its temperature. The higher the temperature, the more moisture air can hold, and the greater potential for heavy downpours. This is because at higher temperatures water molecules have more kinetic energy and therefore are more likely to exist in the vapor phase. The maximum amount of moisture possible in the air increases at about 7% per degree Celsius.

    Floodwaters rise in downtown Hopkinsville, Ky., on April 4, 2025.
    AP Photo/George Walker IV

    Warm air also supplies storm systems with more energy. When that vapor starts to condense into water or ice as it cools, it releases large amount of energy, known as latent heat. This additional energy fuels the storm system, leading to stronger winds and greater atmospheric instability.

    That leads us to the second necessary condition for a storm: atmospheric instability.

    Atmospheric instability has two components: rising air and wind shear, which is created as wind speed changes with height. The rising air, or updraft, is essential because air cools as it moves up, and as a result, water vapor condenses to form precipitation.

    As the air cools at high altitudes, it starts to sink, forming a downdraft of cool and dry air on the edge of a storm system.

    When there is little wind shear, the downdraft can suppress the updraft, and the storm system quickly dissipates as it exhausts the local moisture in the air. However, strong wind shear can tilt the storm system, so that the downdraft occurs at a different location, and the updraft of warm moist air can continue, supplying the storm with moisture and energy. This often leads to strong storm systems that can spawn tornadoes.

    Extreme downpours hit the US

    It is precisely a combination of these conditions that caused the prolonged, extensive precipitation that the Midwest and Southern states saw in early April.

    The Midwest is prone to extreme storms, particularly during spring. Spring is a transition time when the cold and dry air mass from the Arctic, which dominates the region in winter, is gradually being pushed away by warm and moist air from the Gulf that dominates the region in summer.

    This clash of air masses creates atmosphere instability at the boundary, where the warm and less dense air is pushed upward above the cold and denser air, creating precipitation.

    The Storm Prediction Center’s one-day convective outlooks from March 30 through April 5, 2025, and the tornado, wind and hail reports over that period reflect the damage when severe storms flooded communities in the Midwest and South.
    National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center

    A cold front forms when a cold air mass pushes away a warm air mass. A warm front forms when the warm air mass pushes to replace the cold air mass. A cold front usually moves faster than a warm front, but the speed is related to the temperature difference between the two air masses.

    The warm conditions before the April storm system reduced the temperature difference between these cold and warm air masses, greatly reducing the speed of the frontal movement and allowing it to stall over states from Texas to Ohio.

    The result was prolonged precipitation and repeated storms. The warm temperatures also led to high moisture content in the air masses, leading to more precipitation. In addition, strong wind shear led to a continuous supply of moisture into the storm systems, causing strong thunderstorms and dozens of tornadoes to form.

    What global warming has to do with storms

    As global temperatures rise, the warming air creates conditions that are more conducive to extreme precipitation.

    The warmer air can mean more moisture, leading to wetter and stronger storms. And since most significant warming occurs near the surface, while the upper atmosphere is cooling, this can increase wind shear and the atmospheric instability that sets the stage for strong storms.

    Polar regions are also warming two to three times as fast as the global average, reducing the temperature gradient between the poles and equator. That can weaken the global winds. Most of the weather systems in the continental U.S. are modulated by the polar jet stream, so a weaker jet stream can slow the movement of storms, creating conditions for prolonged precipitation events.

    All of these create conditions that make extreme storms and flooding much more likely in the future.

    Shuang-Ye Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Two key ingredients cause extreme storms with destructive flooding – why these downpours are happening more often – https://theconversation.com/two-key-ingredients-cause-extreme-storms-with-destructive-flooding-why-these-downpours-are-happening-more-often-254123

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: White House plans for Alaskan oil and gas face some hurdles – including from Trump and the petroleum industry

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Scott L. Montgomery, Lecturer in International Studies, University of Washington

    A pumping station and oil pipeline north of Fairbanks, Alaska, are part of the existing fossil fuel industry in the state. AP Photo/Al Grillo

    The second Trump administration has launched the next stage in the half-century-long battle between commerce and conservation over Alaskan oil and gas development. But its moves are delivering a mixed message to the petroleum industry.

    The administration has opened – or reopened – large swaths of government land in Alaska to oil and gas drilling, though only some of those opportunities have drawn much commercial interest in recent years. And an 800-mile pipeline across Alaska that the administration says it supports is not yet funded, and other administration policies risk turning off prospective partners.

    President Donald Trump says he wants to grow oil and gas production and advance the goal of what he calls U.S. “energy dominance.” The White House says that term means both reducing the amount of energy imported from other countries and increasing the amount of energy exported from the U.S., especially to allies.

    The U.S. is already the world’s largest producer and exporter of natural gas as well as the largest producer of crude oil. And the nation’s oil industry boomed under the Biden administration. However, the U.S. does import an average of over 6 million barrels per day of crude oil, most of it from Canada.

    Trump’s efforts seek to boost U.S. production to still greater heights by expanding access to areas for drilling and building related infrastructure. But as a former petroleum geoscientist and industry observer, I would suggest his various actions, taken as a whole, may have more limited effects than he seems to hope.

    Returned to leasing

    In one of his first executive orders after retaking office on Jan. 20, 2025, Trump declared that the U.S. would develop Alaska’s petroleum resources “to the fullest extent possible.”

    The Biden administration had banned oil leasing in three areas of Alaska. One was all but 400,000 acres in the coastal plain portion of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Another was a 13-million-acre swath of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, a massive parcel of federal land west of the refuge. The third area was 44 million acres of the offshore coastal portion of the northern Bering Sea, based on concerns for tribal rights and the migration routes of marine mammals.

    Trump moved quickly to reverse all these bans, describing them as an “assault on Alaska’s sovereignty and its ability to responsibly develop (its) resources for the benefit of the Nation.” And Trump went farther, expanding the available land by an additional 6 million acres in the petroleum reserve and another 1.1 million acres of the wildlife refuge.

    All those areas are home to many different types of wildlife, as well as Indigenous groups.

    Caribou migrate onto the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in northeast Alaska.
    U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service via AP

    The view of industry

    For the petroleum industry, I expect these actions are both welcome and irrelevant. Reopening the northeastern portion of the petroleum reserve creates a real opportunity: Exploration has found a significant amount of oil and gas in that area, and indications are that there may be more yet to discover.

    But prospects on the land in the wildlife refuge and the shallow waters of the Bering Sea are not likely of much interest to drilling companies unless oil prices rise significantly from their levels in early 2025. There is no established production in either area at present. And, though the refuge has oil and gas potential, there are no roads or pipelines, and Arctic drilling is especially expensive.

    In fact, the last two attempts by the government to lease oil development rights in the wildlife refuge drew very little interest. In 2020, the first Trump administration teamed with Republicans in Congress to overcome long-standing legal and political opposition to leasing in the refuge. But the 2021 lease sale was a bust, with none of the top oil producers in the state participating.

    A second round of bidding, in January 2025, received no interest at all from oil companies.

    The Trans-Alaska Pipeline runs 800 miles from the North Slope to the port of Valdez, Alaska.
    Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Pipe dreams that could come true

    A strong gain for the petroleum industry would be a major new pipeline to carry natural gas more than 800 miles south from the Prudhoe Bay area on the Arctic coast to a port near Anchorage on south-central Alaska’s Cook Inlet.

    The idea has its own decades-long history, and has been both pushed forward and set back over the years by changing economics, government plans, and tribal interest and opposition.

    The main challenge is that there is no way to transport natural gas off the North Slope. Since drilling began in the late 1970s, some has been used locally for heating and running equipment, with the vast majority being reinjected into oil reservoir rock to help maintain oil production.

    Rising demand and elevated prices in Asia, however, suggest the project could be profitable, despite the current cost estimate of US$44 billion. Project plans indicate most of it would go to build a liquefied natural gas export terminal near Anchorage, with the rest spent to construct an 807-mile pipeline paralleling the existing Trans-Alaska Pipeline, and a plant at Prudhoe Bay that would capture carbon from the atmosphere, compress it and inject it into oil-producing reservoirs to boost production.

    The pipeline is designed to carry 3.3 billion cubic feet of natural gas each day, which would make it one of the largest pipelines in North America. The export terminal, to be built near the town of Nikiski on Cook Inlet, would have a capacity of roughly 1 trillion cubic feet per year, enough to heat about 15 million homes for a year.

    The pipeline could take as little as two to three years to build, but the terminal and carbon-capture plant would take longer – five years or so. The exports from Alaska could go to other ports in the U.S., but they could also fetch higher prices in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and possibly China.

    An artist’s rendering of what a natural gas export terminal would look like on Cook Inlet, near Nikiski, Alaska.
    Alaska Gasline Development Corporation

    A wrench in the works

    Most of the permits needed for the pipeline-and-export-terminal project have been secured by the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation, a company created by the state of Alaska to build the project.

    However, no company or foreign government has yet agreed to foot the bill, and despite the support of the Trump White House, there’s no indication the federal government will do so either.

    The Trump administration has also created a new barrier to the project. Its sweeping tariffs and the resulting trade war crashed prices in the global oil and gas market in early April 2025.

    In addition, uncertainty about the permanence of tariffs or other restrictions on international trade are now widespread and directly affect the oil industry. Lower gas and oil prices and less stability make any project less attractive.

    It’s true that Trump exempted oil and gas from his most recent tariffs. But that matters less than the broader effect the trade war is already having, with analysts projecting it is driving the global economy toward recession. Less economic activity means less demand for oil and gas, and therefore less incentive for companies to drill new wells and build new pipelines.

    To top everything off, the White House slapped heavy tariffs on Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, the very countries that might be inclined to help fund the pipeline project. Even before the trade war, they were hesitant about supporting it. The potential suspension, or reinstatement, or adjustment of tariffs is not likely to help them view the situation as more stable.

    Those who favor oil and gas development in Alaska may be wondering whether the president is truly on their side. It remains to be seen whether their hopes might end up a casualty of White House economic policy.

    Scott L. Montgomery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. White House plans for Alaskan oil and gas face some hurdles – including from Trump and the petroleum industry – https://theconversation.com/white-house-plans-for-alaskan-oil-and-gas-face-some-hurdles-including-from-trump-and-the-petroleum-industry-254040

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Companies will still face pressure to manage for climate change, even as government rolls back US climate policy

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ethan I. Thorpe, Fellow at Private Climate Governance Lab, Vanderbilt University

    Amazon partnered with Dominion Energy to build solar farms in Virginia to power its cloud-computing service. Drew Angerer/Getty Images

    As the federal government moves to eliminate U.S. climate rules, companies still face pressure to be better stewards of the planet from their customers, investors, employees, local communities, lenders, insurers, global trading partners and many states.

    Each of those groups knows it will face increasing costs from rising temperatures and extreme weather if corporations don’t rein in their greenhouse gas emissions.

    Many companies will find that returning to past polluting ways isn’t in their best interest. Over 60% of chief financial officers surveyed by global management firm Kearney in December 2024 signaled that they intended to invest at least 2% of their revenue in sustainability in 2025.

    These companies may maintain a low profile about climate change while the Trump administration is in power, but they have strong financial incentives to continue to reduce their emissions and their own climate risks.

    We study private environmental governance – the ways companies and organizations work outside government to improve the nation’s sustainability and reduce environmental damage. Our work finds that, in this polarized era, addressing climate and sustainability challenges is not just a matter of government action. That’s because a lot of climate and sustainability progress is underway in the private sector.

    Sustainability matters to companies’ bottom lines

    Businesses have used climate and sustainability initiatives for years to make their operations and supply chains more efficient and to reduce their long-term costs.

    When McDonald’s faced public pressure to reduce waste in the late 1980s, the company teamed up with the Environmental Defense Fund to analyze the problem. It was able to reduce its waste by 30% over the following decade, saving the company US$6 million a year. This early risk-taking by McDonald’s opened the door for other environmental groups to help businesses understand how to reduce their environmental impact, including emissions, while boosting the companies’ profitability.

    The shipping company Maersk expects to cut emissions and boost productivity at the same time with better logistics and low-emissions ships like this one, which runs on methanol.
    Axel Heimken/picture alliance via Getty Images

    Maersk, the logistics giant responsible for nearly a quarter of global shipping, has responded to pressure from its corporate customers with a plan to reduce carbon emissions by one-third from 2022 to 2030 and reach net-zero emissions by 2045. It expects the combination of low-emissions vessels and a more efficient delivery network with hubs and shuttles to help meet its climate goals while increasing productivity.

    Companies have also helped drive the expansion of renewable energy, motivated by the competitive economics of renewables and business opportunities. Facebook’s parent company Meta and Google invested nearly $2 billion in projects to provide renewable energy in the Tennessee Valley Authority service area, even though no government required them to do so. And major companies continued
    signing renewable energy power purchase agreements in 2025.

    Microsoft and Amazon are responding to massive new power demand by trying to locate data centers near existing nuclear power plants for cleaner energy supplies.

    Thousands of companies report emissions via private systems

    Another sign of companies’ continuing commitment to sustainability is how many of them measure and report their greenhouse gas emissions even when governments do not require them to do so.

    Nearly 25,000 companies representing two-thirds of total global market capitalization and 85% of the S&P 500 report their emissions to the nonprofit CDP. Disclosing emissions is like keeping a fitness journal with a personal trainer. It helps a company track its progress and plan for future financial and environmental risks. More than 12,500 small- and medium-size companies also disclosed emissions to CDP in 2024.

    Many of these companies were initially motivated by pressure from environmental groups or corporate customers. Today, they have more reason to continue paying attention to emissions.

    California has its own formal reporting requirements designed to encourage companies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. And other states are considering setting climate disclosure rules. The Trump administration has promised to challenge them, and announced that it also plans to cut federal greenhouse gas reporting standards, but companies will likely still face reporting rules in the future.

    The European Union also approved reporting requirements. It delayed their start date in April 2025 to give companies more time to comply.

    Cleaner supply chains can also be more efficient

    Managing supply chains with climate and environmental risks in mind can also help businesses increase their efficiency and reduce the risk that climate change will disrupt their operations.

    The supply chain is the largest source of the average company’s emissions and may be particularly vulnerable to climate shocks. A storm can easily disrupt vital production or shipping, and droughts or heat waves can damage crops, stop work and increase costs. Companies estimate climate-related supply chain risks at $162 billion, nearly three times the cost of mitigating those risks. Many companies therefore have incentives to reduce emissions and their exposure to related hazards.

    Nearly 80% of the largest companies across seven global economic sectors had set environmental requirements for suppliers within their value chains as of 2023. These requirements include reporting carbon emissions, reducing emissions and using sustainable forestry practices.

    Walmart eliminated 1 billion tons of carbon emissions from its supply chain in less than seven years by sharing its expertise with suppliers and working with them to reduce their emissions. Walmart’s global director of sustainable retail noted in 2024 that the effort made its suppliers more efficient, too.

    Keeping employees and customers happy

    Companies also face pressure from average people − both employees and customers.

    More than two-thirds of Americans support action to address climate change. Even companies that are not consumer-facing need retail customer and employee support. Pro-climate actions have been found to improve employee and customer loyalty.

    The outdoor clothing company Patagonia ranked third out of over 300 brands in a 2024 customer experience survey, in part because of its reputation for sustainable practices. Many of the over 10,000 respondents cited the company’s sustainable practices as the leading reason for their support.

    Many companies also face pressure from lenders and insurers who want to reduce climate risks to their own bottom lines. Dozens of insurers have committed to ending or restricting underwriting for new fossil fuel projects. Others use incentives, such as lower premiums for companies that reduce emissions or invest in climate adaptation.

    Climate change may accelerate the current 5% to 7% annual increase in insured losses, according to estimates from insurer Swiss Re. That has led some insurance leaders to recommend insurance companies take bigger steps to reduce emissions through their investments and policy underwriting.

    Private climate governance can help buy time

    Media attention and interest group advocacy is often focused on government actions, but decisions made in boardrooms and through initiatives with nonprofits have created an important kind of private climate governance.

    As companies respond to their own economic risks and incentives, they help buy time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change until the political system recognizes the financial risks posed to the entire country.

    Zdravka Tzankova receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    Ethan I. Thorpe and Michael Vandenbergh do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Companies will still face pressure to manage for climate change, even as government rolls back US climate policy – https://theconversation.com/companies-will-still-face-pressure-to-manage-for-climate-change-even-as-government-rolls-back-us-climate-policy-251580

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Manuscript sold for €300 is now attributed to Cyrano de Bergerac – but questions remain about the play’s authorship

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alisa van de Haar, Assistant Professor in Historical French Literature, Leiden University

    Cyrano de Bergerac illustrated by Zacharie Heince (circa 1654). Gallica Digital Library/Canva, CC BY-SA

    French researchers recently published an edition of a previously unknown 17th-century French play that they argue could be attributed to the French satirist and dramatist Savinien de Cyrano de Bergerac.

    Bibliophiles and literary historians like myself are rejoicing at this discovery, which sheds new light on 17th-century literary, political and libertine culture. However, questions remain regarding the authorship of the comedy.

    Cyrano de Bergerac is best known as the big-nosed protagonist in a 19th-century eponymous play by Edmond Rostand. Adapted for the screen most recently in 2021, Rostand’s play portrays Cyrano de Bergerac as a flamboyant young man who combines the arts of duelling and poetry and is tormented by love for his cousin, Roxane. It caricatures the real Cyrano, who led a tumultuous life that ended tragically when he was only 35.

    Contrary to what Rostand’s play suggests, historians have argued that Cyrano de Bergerac was homosexual. While he enlisted as a musketeer serving the French king for some time, he quit after suffering several wounds. He is often associated with libertine culture, questioning the core dogmas of Christianity and the moral, sexual and political values of 17th-century France.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Cyrano de Bergerac wrote a variety of plays, letters and novels, often in a satirical vein. Few were published during his lifetime and his most famous works, Les États et Empires de la Lune (The States and Empires of the Moon) and a sequel on the Sun, were both published posthumously.

    These novels have been characterised as early forms of science fiction. They describe voyages to the Moon and Sun, where the protagonist encounters utopian societies inspired by some aspects of libertine thought. While Cyrano de Bergerac became the object of ridicule by some contemporaries, others – including the acclaimed French playwright Molière – were inspired by his works.

    The 17th-century manuscript now tentatively attributed to Cyrano de Bergerac was brought to the attention of lead researcher Guy Fontaine by the previous owners, who asked him to determine its possible author.

    However, in 2022, before Fontaine and his research team were able to draw any conclusions, the manuscript was sold at an auction for the low sum of €300 (£257). The auction catalogue attributed it to the minor playwright Gabriel Gilbert.

    But Fontaine and his team later concluded that the attribution to Gilbert was unlikely. According to them, the manuscript, which contains a comedy written out over 70 pages, points in the direction of Cyrano de Bergerac.

    Cyrano, a film based on the Edmond Rostand play Cyrano de Bergerac, was released in 2021.

    The play, entitled L’Art de Persuader (The Art of Persuasion), tells the story of two young men seeking to marry two women, incidentally both named Julie, in a traditional structure in five acts. The play shows an experienced playwright at work, aware of both classical and contemporary models.

    Set against the backdrop of Paris during the political upheavals involving Cardinal Mazarin and the thirty years’ war, the political events described in the play allowed the researchers to situate its creation in the final years of the 1640s or first half of the 1650s. These dates are corroborated by physical evidence. The play is written in a mid-17th-century handwriting style, and watermarks found in the paper were only in use until 1656.

    This timeline corresponds to the the active years of Cyrano de Bergerac, who emerged as a potential author because of the combined presence of a number of elements in the comedy. The play’s references to libertine ideas and Epicurean philosophy, a topic with which Cyrano de Bergerac was familiar, point in his direction.

    L’Art de Persuader’s style, including many Latin influences, and division into acts and scenes bear similarity to Cyrano de Bergerac’s known plays, as does the pairing of its characters, who often appear in duos. The locations mentioned in the play all have some connection to the historical Bergerac – and the author’s most famous theme, the Moon, is also mentioned.

    Reason for caution

    Despite the clear similarities with the style and themes preferred by Cyrano de Bergerac, the researchers remain cautious with their claim – and rightly so. Many of the elements that correspond with his style, such as the pairing of characters, were in fashion in the mid-17th century and can be found in the works of other writers, too.

    No single element connects the play irrefutably to this particular libertine author. An additional problem is that an expert in 17th-century handwriting who was consulted by the research team was unable to definitively match the writing of the manuscript to Cyrano de Bergerac’s.

    The edition of L’Art de Persuader published by the research team will enable other experts of Cyrano de Bergerac to shed their light on the authorship question. But whoever the author is, this play is of interest to literary historians as it provides new insights into the interplay between political history and theatre culture, as well as into libertine writing and the influence of Latin comedy – in particular Plautus – on baroque literature.

    For any bibliophile or historian, finding such an important text at an auction is a dream come true. And though rare, this is not the only major literary find of recent years. Take, for example the handwritten poems by Emily Brontë and the sole surviving copy of an early edition of the Bay Psalm Book, both of which came up for auction in 2021.

    When part of a private collection, however, these materials are difficult for researchers to access. It is therefore all the more valuable when owners contact specialists themselves, which is how Fontaine and his team first learned about this precious French play. For now, their edition is the only way to study this manuscript as, following the auction, it is in private hands.

    Alisa van de Haar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Manuscript sold for €300 is now attributed to Cyrano de Bergerac – but questions remain about the play’s authorship – https://theconversation.com/manuscript-sold-for-300-is-now-attributed-to-cyrano-de-bergerac-but-questions-remain-about-the-plays-authorship-254315

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What lies ahead for South Korea after the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Yoon Walker, PhD Candidate in the School of Languages, Cultures and Linguistics, SOAS, University of London

    South Korea’s constitutional court upheld the parliament’s decision to impeach the country’s suspended president, Yoon Suk Yeol, on April 4. The court stated that, by declaring martial law in December, Yoon had taken actions that were beyond the powers granted by South Korea’s constitution.

    Yoon is also facing criminal charges for allegedly leading an insurrection with the martial law attempt. While the criminal trial is separate from the impeachment, the court’s ruling that the martial law decree was unconstitutional could undermine Yoon’s defence of presidential authority.

    Separate to this charge, Yoon is being investigated for obstructing arrest after his security team blocked attempts by the police to detain him at his residence in January. His security service refused police warrants for search and seizure, citing national security concerns.

    Yoon has been stripped of his presidential rights, including the privilege of staying in the newly built presidential residence in Seoul and being buried at the national cemetery when he passes away.

    South Koreans will now elect a new president. But, in a country beset by deep societal division, the new leader will face an uphill battle to return the nation to stability.

    Get your news from actual experts, direct to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences. Join The Conversation for free today.

    Since parliament approved Yoon’s impeachment over 100 days ago, South Korea has been divided between Yoon’s supporters, who see him as the victim of a political establishment that has been overrun by “communists”, and those in favour of his removal. There have been weekly protests from both camps.

    Most conservative politicians from Yoon’s People Power party (PPP) stood by him throughout the political upheaval. But many have started to distance themselves from him now that he has been dismissed, especially as any criminal conviction could be a setback for the party in the upcoming snap election.

    Shortly after the constitutional court’s ruling was delivered, Kwon Young-se, the PPP’s interim leader, issued an official statement declaring that the party “solemnly accepts and humbly respects” the decision. This marked a sharp contrast to the position the party had previously taken during the crisis. Many PPP members had been involved in protests organised by supporters of Yoon.

    The political stance of far-right figures is also changing. Jeon Kwang-hoon, a Protestant pastor at the forefront of the anti-impeachment movement and an advocate for the “right to resist”, has rejected the court’s ruling on Yoon’s impeachment. He has also urged his followers to resist.

    On the other hand, another prominent far-right figure called Jeon Han-gil swiftly changed his stance after the judgment. He expressed his respect for the court’s decision and announced that he would now focus on supporting the upcoming presidential election.

    Electing Yoon’s successor

    With South Korea’s need for a new president confirmed, the date for the snap presidential election has been set for June 3. Both political camps are gearing up for the race.

    Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main opposition Democratic party (DPK), has been Yoon’s most formidable rival. Lee was the DPK’s candidate in the last presidential election in 2022, where he narrowly lost to Yoon by less than 1% of the vote.

    Few others from his party have shown interest in the primary race, including former member of the National Assembly Kim Kyung-soo and the governor of Gyeonggi province, Kim Dong-yeon.

    The situation in the ruling party is more chaotic. With no clear frontrunner, a number of candidates are expected to enter the race.

    These include labour minister Kim Moon-soo, former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon, Daegu mayor Hong Joon-pyo, and Ahn Cheol-soo, a politician who made his name in the tech industry. Experts predict there could be ten candidates in the ruling party’s primary.

    South Korea’s polarisation across political, social, gender and generational lines has intensified in recent years. Lee Jae-myung was even stabbed in the neck in 2024 by a man hoping to prevent him from “becoming president”, resulting in Lee undergoing emergency surgery.

    This division has become even more pronounced since Yoon’s declaration of martial law, with tensions spilling over online and on the streets. The crisis has provided both ends of the political spectrum with an opportunity to solidify their positions, further entrenching this divide.

    During the street protests following the martial law decree, the majority of women in their 20s and 30s took the lead in advocating for Yoon’s impeachment, while many men in the same age group rallied against it.

    As South Korea prepares to elect its next leader, the urgency of uniting a deeply fractured society has never been greater. National unity has long been a central goal for South Korean political leaders, but heightened social divisions are threatening the country’s wellbeing.

    This is being compounded by a range of other pressing issues, including the world’s lowest birth rate, a high suicide rate and soaring housing prices. These paint a sobering picture of the challenges ahead.

    Yoon Walker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What lies ahead for South Korea after the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol? – https://theconversation.com/what-lies-ahead-for-south-korea-after-the-impeachment-of-president-yoon-suk-yeol-254082

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sudan’s war isn’t nearly over – armed civilian groups are rising

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Mohamed Saad, Researcher, Charles University

    Sudan’s war, now entering its third year, has taken another unexpected turn. In March 2025, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), also known as the Janjaweed, withdrew from Khartoum, abandoning the presidential palace and airport.

    This retreat marks a significant contrast to the paramilitary group’s earlier victory when troops stormed the capital in April 2023.

    The fall of Khartoum is a turning point. But, based on my research into Sudan’s political turmoil over the past three decades, I don’t believe recent developments mark the war’s final chapter.

    What began as a power struggle between two military factions is now transforming into a much wider conflict, marked by deepening fragmentation and the rise of armed civilian groups. Across the country, new militias are emerging, many formed by civilians who once had no part in the war.

    The army encouraged civilians to fight, but now it faces a growing number of independent armed groups. In cities and rural areas alike, civilians have taken up arms.

    Some are fighting alongside the army, answering calls from the military leadership, including army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, to defend their neighbourhoods and families. Others have formed self-defence units to protect against looting and violence. Some have joined breakaway militias that have their own agendas.

    These groups don’t share a single goal. Some fight for self-defence, others for political power. Some for revenue and wealth. Others are seeking ethnic control – Sudan’s population has 56 ethnic groups and 595 sub-ethnic groups. This is what makes Sudan’s war even more dangerous: fragmentation is creating multiple mini-wars within the larger conflict.

    How the Rapid Support Forces lost Khartoum

    Several key factors forced the RSF to retreat from Khartoum after it claimed control of the Sudanese capital city two years earlier.

    • Internal fractures: The RSF, built on tribal loyalty, struggled to hold together as the war dragged on. Many factions felt sidelined by its leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti.

    • Civilian resistance: The RSF’s reliance on brutality backfired, alienating even those who might have supported them. Instead of consolidating control, they turned civilians into enemies. The RSF relied on terror – looting, mass killings and sexual violence. Instead of gaining control, they provoked fierce resistance. Armed civilians, originally taking up arms in self-defence, have become an informal militia network working against the RSF.

    • Foreign intervention: Reports suggest Egyptian airstrikes and tactical support helped the army take Khartoum. Additionally, Turkish-made Bayraktar drones weakened RSF positions. With supply lines cut, the RSF had no choice but to retreat.

    Khartoum was not just a battlefield defeat for the RSF. It was a turning point in how the war is fought – it’s no longer a military struggle but a battle involving armed civilians across Sudan.

    Based on reports from humanitarian organisations, conflict monitors and local testimonies, a clearer picture has emerged of a growing number of armed groups operating across Sudan. These groups have formed in response to the escalating conflict.

    Recent analyses highlight that arms trafficking and intensified community mobilisation have accelerated within the past two years.



    Read more:
    Omar al-Bashir brutalised Sudan – how his 30-year legacy is playing out today

    Neighbourhood defence units have emerged in urban areas like El-Gezira in central Sudan, El-Fasher in North Darfur, Al-Dalang in South Kordofan, El-Obeid in North Kordofan, Babanusa in West Kordofan and Khartoum. They were initially formed to protect residential zones from the RSF but have since expanded their roles and increasingly operate outside the oversight of the army.

    Tribal and regional militias have also become more prominent, particularly in Darfur and Kordofan. In these regions, entrenched ethnic and political rivalries have intertwined with the current war. Some of these militia groups have aligned with the army. Others remain independent, pursuing their own agendas, which include securing territory.

    In Darfur, growing anger at Hemedti’s favouritism towards his own tribe (Rizeigat) led to defections. Internal divisions within the RSF have played a major role in its recent losses. Some former RSF fighters have formed their own militias. The RSF was never a unified force, but a tribal alliance dominated by the Dagalo family and Rizeigat elites. Initially, gold revenues secured loyalty, but as the war has dragged on, internal fractures have deepened.

    Another ethnic-linked group is the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North. It has expanded its control in Kordofan and Blue Nile, two resource-rich regions in southern Sudan. The group allied with the RSF to push its own agenda, which includes securing greater autonomy for these regions and promoting a secular political framework that challenges Khartoum’s Islamist-leaning governance. Other ethnic militias also operate in eastern Sudan, supported by neighbouring countries such as Eritrea, further escalating the situation.

    Islamist-linked militias are also on the rise. The main example of these groups is El Baraa Ibn Malik Brigade, which emerged as a key player supporting the army against the RSF. Reports link the group to remnants of the Omar al-Bashir regime (1993-2019) – the dissolved Popular Defence Forces. This was a paramilitary group established in the mid-1980s to defend Arab tribes and support the military. It flourished under the al-Bashir regime.

    What next?

    While the RSF’s retreat from Khartoum is a major victory for the Sudanese army, it doesn’t mean stability is returning. Instead, Sudan is now facing a dangerous new reality: the rise of civilian militarisation.

    If not reined in, these groups could evolve and establish de facto warlord-run territories where local commanders wield unchecked power. This would undermine any prospects for centralised governance in Sudan.



    Read more:
    Sudan is burning and foreign powers are benefiting – what’s in it for the UAE

    With militias multiplying and no clear political solution, Sudan risks becoming a battlefield of warring factions.

    Meanwhile, international mediators are struggling to find a solution while foreign interference continues. The United Arab Emirates, a major RSF backer, still supports Hemedti financially, ensuring he remains active in Sudan’s gold trade.

    Mohamed Saad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Sudan’s war isn’t nearly over – armed civilian groups are rising – https://theconversation.com/sudans-war-isnt-nearly-over-armed-civilian-groups-are-rising-254100

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Election Diary: Labor breaks practice of preferencing Greens to protect Jewish MP Josh Burns

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    It takes a bit for Labor not to preference the Greens but on Friday it was announced that in the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where Jewish MP Josh Burns is embattled, the ALP will run an open ticket.

    Macnamara, which includes the suburbs of Balaclava, Albert Park and South Melbourne, has the second largest Jewish constituency – 10% of voters – of any electorate. Only Wentworth in Sydney has more.

    Burns has held the seat since 2019. At the last election he had a primary vote of 31.77%, with the Greens second on 29.65%, just ahead of the Liberals on 29%. After preferences were distributed, this turned into a substantial two-party win for him over the Liberals.

    The political dynamics have changed since then. There is anger in the Jewish community about the Albanese government’s attitude to Israel and criticism that it hasn’t done enough to combat antisemitism. The expectation is that Burns’ primary vote will go down and the Liberal vote will go up.

    ABC election analyst Antony Green says the seat “will be a battle for the order of exclusion” – it will all depend on who comes in third on primary votes.

    If the Liberals or the Greens come third, Burns will be elected. If Burns is third on primaries, he is eliminated and the Greens are favorite, even with an open ticket. But the leakage of preferences from an open ticket would give an opportunity to the Liberals, Green says.

    Green points out that given how close the three parties were on primaries last election, a very small shift in votes could change the order of the top three.

    Burns has benefitted from the Friday draw for order on the ballot paper. He is in the top spot, giving him the so-called “donkey vote”, with the Greens third, ahead of the Liberals.

    Burns warned an election forum this week, sponsored by the Australian Jewish News and various Jewish groups, “If we do not win enough number one votes, then the Greens will obviously come into second place. That is the biggest concern that I’ve got.”

    He dismissed the prospects of the Liberals being able to win the seat. “The only people who can win this seat from me are the Greens.”

    He told the audience, “If the Greens form into the top two, then think about the people who make up this electorate – the young progressive people from Elwood, from St Kilda, from Windsor, from South Melbourne, from South Bank.

    “We are a proud and large Jewish community, but we’re only 10% of the electorate of Macnamara.

    “The preferences, regardless of what the Labor Party says, are not going to the Liberal Party from those young people.”

    Burns faced some heckling from a small number of people in the audience – they were told to be quiet by other audience members.

    The forum was attended by Liberal candidate Benson Saulo, who recounted his Indigenous heritage, and strongly condemned the scenes at the pro-Palestinian rally outside the Sydney Opera House in the wake of the October 7 2023 Hamas attacks in Israel.

    The Greens candidate was not invited onto the panel but was in the audience.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Election Diary: Labor breaks practice of preferencing Greens to protect Jewish MP Josh Burns – https://theconversation.com/election-diary-labor-breaks-practice-of-preferencing-greens-to-protect-jewish-mp-josh-burns-254202

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: South Africa’s coalition government is crumbling: why collapse would carry a heavy cost

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Vinothan Naidoo, Associate Professor of Public Policy and Administration, University of Cape Town

    South Africa’s multi-party government of national unity (GNU), which emerged in the wake of the May 2024 elections, marked a turning point in the country’s political history. It took South Africans back to the 1990s, when the country showed that political opponents could find common cause.

    The formation of the government of national unity expressed the hope that the country could do it again.

    But just nine months into its term, the good will and pragmatism which marked its formation have worn thin. A major budget impasse between the two major actors, the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA), threatens the coalition.

    South Africans have long been accustomed to viewing the world of politics, governance and bureaucracy through the lens of a top-down “strong” state – a vicious apartheid state, an East Asia style developmental state, or a collusive “predatory state”.

    But as recent analyses we co-authored with others have detailed,
    the vision of a top-down politically cohesive state no longer fits South Africa’s realities.

    The government of national unity promised the hope that the country was embracing an approach that is key to success for almost all inclusive constitutional democracies. That is – abandon “all or nothing” confrontation, and instead pursue pragmatic bargains to achieve mutually agreeable policy outcomes.

    At the most basic level, the government of national unity achieved this, at least for a while. The sharing of cabinet ministries between multiple parties created a diverse platform for executive power-sharing that was not dictated by a single dominant party, and which prevented the risks of parties building institutional fiefdoms.

    In our view, failure to overcome deeply ingrained political differences could set off a downward spiral in the country.

    Achievements on the governance front

    On governance, the government of national unity created the space to pursue two sets of gains.

    The first comprises the potential benefit of bringing together unlikely bedfellows.

    The former opposition parties brought into a power-sharing arrangement were bound to be performance-driven, given the country’s long deteriorating government performance and ethical integrity. They had made “good governance” and criticism of the ANC central to their political brands.

    New “outsider” eyes brought into formerly cloistered and factionalised ANC-run departments created the possibility of a new urgency to perform.

    It’s too soon to tell whether this is happening, but anecdotal evidence suggests there are some green shoots.

    The second governance gain comprises the crucial task of building a capable and professional state bureaucracy. The challenges include being able to pay the public sector wage bill, fostering a culture of delivery, and consolidating the bloated network of government departments.

    Based on their party manifestos and public utterances, members of the government all aim to professionalise the public service.

    Detailed technical work is already happening on issues such as training and competency assessment, transferring powers of appointment from politicians to senior public servants, and instituting checks in the recruitment and selection process. The National Assembly’s recent adoption of the Public Service Commission Bill forms part of this agenda.

    But a prolonged legal dispute between the DA and ANC over the latter’s policy of “deploying” party members into state employment risks scuppering progress. It also leaves a key question unanswered: what role, if any, should political parties have in the recruitment and selection of public servants?

    Policy

    The government of national unity has struggled to create effective mechanisms to translate agreement on a broad agenda of policy priorities into specific outcomes. This came at a higher cost than expected.

    Still, it has made gains in challenging policy areas. These gains have repeatedly been undermined by the perverse determination of sections within both the ANC and the DA to engage in brinkmanship.

    On health, both parties agree on the principle of universalising access. They differ on how to achieve this. But at least one seemingly intractable sticking point has been resolved. Both sides agree that private medical aid schemes need to be retained as part of a broader strategy of pursuing health system reform.

    On basic education, the public spat over the Basic Education Laws Amendment Bill overshadows the potential to agree on balancing the autonomy of school governing bodies with the oversight role of provincial departments.



    Read more:
    South Africa has a new education law: some love it, some hate it – education expert explains why

    On land expropriation, the emotive rhetoric which followed the signing of the Expropriation Bill and the unwelcome and toxic intervention of international actors has overshadowed technical concerns which can be resolved.

    On pro-growth policies: Operation Vulindlela, a joint Presidency and National Treasury initiative to unblock constraints in targeted economic sectors, has made significant strides. It has laid the groundwork for new rounds of growth-supporting infrastructural reforms and has the potential to build cohesion in the government of national unity. However, the DA’s attempt to lobby for a greater role in the strategic oversight of Operation Vulindlela in exchange for supporting the budget risks souring relations with the ANC.

    What now?

    A thriving inclusive society depends on powerful actors visibly committed to co-operation.

    For all of the challenges confronting the government of national unity, it was built on a foundation of pragmatism. For the sake of South Africa’s future, it remains vital to build on this foundation. Obsolete top-down governing approaches must go. Pathways to performance must be lifted above political grandstanding. Constructive solutions should supersede ideological rigidity. South Africa has done it before. It can do it again.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. South Africa’s coalition government is crumbling: why collapse would carry a heavy cost – https://theconversation.com/south-africas-coalition-government-is-crumbling-why-collapse-would-carry-a-heavy-cost-254302

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Peter Dutton’s climate policy backslide threatens Australia’s clout in the Pacific – right when we need it most

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wesley Morgan, Research Associate, Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney

    Australia’s relationship with its regional neighbours could be in doubt under a Coalition government after two Pacific leaders challenged Opposition Leader Peter Dutton over his weak climate stance.

    This week, Palau’s president Surangel Whipps Jr suggested a 2015 gaffe by Dutton, in which he joked about rising seas lapping at the door of Pacific islanders, had not been forgotten. Speaking at a clean energy conference in Sydney, Whipps said the Pacific’s plight was “not a metaphor or a punchline. It’s our fear and reality.”

    And Tuvalu’s Climate Change Minister, Maina Talia, this month criticised Dutton for suggesting a joint Australia–Pacific bid to host global climate talks next year was “madness”. Talia said Dutton’s comments caused Pacific leaders to “question the nature of our friendship” with Australia.

    Both Labor and Coalition governments have worked hard this decade to cement Australia as a security partner of choice for Pacific nations, as China seeks to expand its influence. Australia’s next government must continue this work by signalling an unwavering commitment to strong climate action.

    What are the major parties offering on climate policy?

    Worsening climate change – with associated sea-level rise and other harms – is the greatest threat to Pacific island nations.

    Pacific leaders have long criticised Australia for its climate policy shortcomings, including its continued reliance on fossil fuels. As Palau’s president Whipps told the ABC this week:

    We are urging Australia – and whoever forms the next government – to take the next steps and stop approving new fossil fuel projects and accelerate the phase-out of coal and gas.

    The Labor government has not agreed to the phase-out. But it has sought to improve Pacific ties through more ambitious climate action.

    In 2022, it introduced a stronger emissions-reduction target – a 43% cut this decade, based on 2005 levels. The same year, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese joined Pacific leaders to declare a climate emergency.

    In 2023, Australia signed a climate migration deal with Tuvalu. It also prevents Tuvalu from pursuing a security deal with China.

    A Coalition government would review Australia’s 43% cut to emissions. It would also expand gas production, and slow the shift to renewables while building seven nuclear reactors. Dutton is also considering weakening Australia’s signature climate policy, the safeguard mechanism, which aims to reduce industry emissions.

    And last month, Dutton suggested the Coalition would ditch the Australia–Pacific bid to host the next United Nations climate summit, known as COP31.

    How will this go down in the Pacific?

    Australia has dramatically stepped up engagement with Pacific island countries in recent years. This has been guided by the foreign policy goal of integrating Pacific countries into Australia’s economy and security institutions.

    But Pacific island leaders also expect Australia – the largest member of the Pacific Islands Forum – to seriously tackle the climate crisis. Should Australia fail on this measure, securing our place in the region during a time of growing strategic competition will become increasingly difficult.

    Pacific leaders welcomed Australia’s plans to host the COP31 climate talks and agreed to work with this nation on the joint bid. If Dutton wins power and abandons the COP31 push, he could face a frosty reception when he meets with Pacific island leaders.

    Palau, in particular, could embarrass Dutton on the global stage. It will host the Pacific Islands Forum meeting next year, weeks before the COP31 talks. This year, Palau also takes over as chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, an important negotiating bloc in global climate talks.

    Countering China’s influence

    Australia’s leadership in the Pacific is considered key to our national defence and security. But China’s growing power in the Pacific has weakened Australia’s standing.

    In 2022, for example, Solomon Islands signed a security deal with China to allow naval vessels to be based there – effectively allowing a Chinese military base on Australia’s doorstep. As recently as February this year, the Cook Islands signed a series of agreements with China to enhance cooperation.

    At the same time, the Trump administration has all but abandoned the United States’ overseas aid program. This leaves Australia with even more work to counter China’s creep into the region.

    In last month’s federal budget, Labor redirected aid money to the Pacific to counteract Trump’s cuts. However, Liberal backbenchers reportedly fear Dutton would cut the foreign aid budget and warn a reduction in Pacific aid would strengthen Beijing’s hand.

    Climate policy is key to Australia-Pacific goodwill

    Australia’s past failures on climate policy have hurt our standing in the Pacific – a point conceded by senior Coalition figure Simon Birmingham.

    A Coalition government is likely to continue some diplomatic measures initiated by the Albanese government, such as security agreements with Tuvalu and Nauru, and negotiating a new defence treaty with Papua New Guinea.

    But the depth of feeling among Pacific leaders on climate action cannot be overstated. As global geopolitical tensions sharpen, Australia’s next moves on climate policy will be vital to the future of our Pacific relationship.

    Wesley Morgan is a fellow with the Climate Council of Australia

    – ref. Peter Dutton’s climate policy backslide threatens Australia’s clout in the Pacific – right when we need it most – https://theconversation.com/peter-duttons-climate-policy-backslide-threatens-australias-clout-in-the-pacific-right-when-we-need-it-most-254385

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Coalition plan to dump fuel efficiency penalties would make Australia a global outlier

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Mortimore, Lecturer, Griffith Business School, Griffith University

    The Coalition has announced it would, if elected to government, weaken a scheme aimed at cutting car emissions.

    The scheme, known as the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES), was introduced by the Albanese government and was due to take effect in July. It involved issuing penalties to automakers that breach an emissions ceiling on their total new car sales.

    The new Coalition plan, announced this week, would see such penalties abolished.

    But the penalties are crucial. Without penalties, automakers have limited incentive to supply fuel efficient, low or zero-CO₂ emitting vehicles to the Australian market.

    If this plan became government policy, it would make Australia an international outlier – and put at risk Australia’s ability to meet its obligations under the Paris climate agreement.

    An international outlier

    More than 85% of the international car market is covered by fuel efficiency standards.

    Without a robust New Vehicle Efficiency Standard scheme, complete with penalties for automakers that break the rules, Australia would join Russia in the tiny minority of developed countries without strong fuel efficiency standards for new vehicles.

    Abolishing the penalties embedded in the scheme also risks making Australia the world’s dumping ground for inefficient vehicles.

    That’s because the penalties embedded in the scheme are there to incentivise automakers to sell more efficient vehicles in Australia.

    The current scheme, as it is, is not particularly punitive. Automakers that breach their cap of emissions are given up to two years to fix their mistakes before being issued with a financial penalty.

    Weakening the scheme won’t help make it easier for Australians to buy fuel-efficient cars.

    Decarbonising Australian roads

    The 2015 Paris Agreement, to which Australia is a signatory, requires developed nations to decarbonise their transport by as much as 80% by 2050.

    Carbon emissions from Australian transport accounts for 21.1% of the nation’s emissions (to June 2023).

    It represents the third largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Australia.

    Without measures aimed at making cars more fuel efficient, Australia’s CO₂ emissions will continue to rise. It will be harder to meet our commitments under the Paris Agreement.

    It’s regulation, not a tax

    The Coalition, which is hoping to pick up votes in outer-ring suburbs, has called the penalties embedded in the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard scheme a “car tax”.

    Liberal leader Peter Dutton said this week:

    This is a tax on families who need a reliable car and small businesses trying to grow. Instead of making life easier, Labor is making it harder and more expensive […] We want cleaner, cheaper cars on Australian roads as we head towards net zero by 2050, but forcing unfair penalties on carmakers and consumers is not the answer.

    But these penalties are not a tax; they are a form of regulation. Automakers that meet the rules wouldn’t have to pay penalties, under the current scheme.

    If the goal is to reduce people’s hip-pocket pain at the bowser, the focus should be on ensuring Australians can buy fuel-efficient vehicles.

    That means incentivising automakers to bring fuel-efficient vehicles to the Australian market. It also means avoiding any policy that encourages carmakers to see Australia as a dumping ground for gas-guzzling vehicles.

    Anna Mortimore receives funding from Reliable Affordable Clean Energy Cooperative Research Centre for 2030 (RACE for 2030).

    – ref. Coalition plan to dump fuel efficiency penalties would make Australia a global outlier – https://theconversation.com/coalition-plan-to-dump-fuel-efficiency-penalties-would-make-australia-a-global-outlier-254386

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Kids cheering ‘chicken jockey!’ at A Minecraft Movie isn’t antisocial – it creates a chance for us to connect

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sophia Staite, Lecturer in Humanities, University of Tasmania

    Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures

    Social media is ablaze with reports of kids going wild at screenings of A Minecraft Movie.

    Some cinemas are cracking down. There are reports of cinemas calling in police to deal with rowdy theatregoers and making special announcements before the film, warning of consequences for “anti-social behaviour” including “clapping and shouting”.

    But these kids are engaging in a kind of communal experience. Rather than being antisocial behaviour – couldn’t we label it as prosocial?

    The global fandom of Minecraft

    Minecraft was first released in 2011 and has sold over 350 million copies, making it the best-selling video game of all time.

    Minecraft is an unstructured game that provides mineable resources and leaves players to create whatever they want with them. Creations can be as basic as stacking blocks of wood to make a wall, or as complex as a working computer.

    It has become the nexus of a vast online community of people with an interest in the game.

    Players connect to one-another digitally and share certain social norms and knowledge, including a memeified vernacular. Minecraft-playing Youtubers have also become popular, and are the source of many memes.

    The community is dominated by children and young adults and the incomprehensibility of their vernacular for other generations is possibly part of its appeal.

    Within child and youth fan communities the usual hierarchies of communication are reversed. Instead of kids having to learn to speak according to adults’ rules, in this community the kids maintain a knowledge system that excludes a lot of adults.

    Enter A Minecraft Movie

    A Minecraft Movie opened last weekend to enormous box office success, bringing in US$313.2 million globally. The film follows four humans who stumble through a portal into the Overworld (Minecraft). Their only way home involves teaming up with fellow human Steve (Jack Black) to save the Overworld from the creativity-hating Piglins.

    Almost immediately, social media conversations sprang up about the behaviour of audiences. One bemused parent described the atmosphere of the cinema as “like [when] The Beatles came to America”.

    Many of the videos shared of audiences during screenings show joyful scenes of communal pleasure, similar to other responses to highly anticipated films such as Avengers: Endgame.

    But while the response to Avengers: Endgame was celebrated, the behaviour of children and teens at A Minecraft Movie has been framed by news outlets in negative terms.

    Journalist Keith Stuart suggests the different responses are a result of parents feeling excluded by A Minecraft Movie’s frequent references to memes.

    Negative news reports link audience behaviour to existing moral panics about social media challenges and are particularly focused on popcorn being thrown.

    The use of the same two or three videos of popcorn throwing to illustrate multiple news articles highlights how relatively few reports of popcorn throwing there currently are.

    Instead, most of the debate on social media has been about the etiquette of noisiness during screenings, including cheering and clapping.

    Finding community

    A Minecraft Movie speaks the memeified vernacular of its online community.

    The film incorporates references to longstanding memes, popular Minecraft YouTubers (and some cameos) and, of course, to the game itself.

    The film is speaking directly to Minecraft fans, and audiences are responding by displaying their mastery of this vernacular and strengthening their sense of belonging.

    By clapping and cheering when they recognise a meme, or saying lines of dialogue in sync with the actors, kids are identifying themselves as members of a community.

    When a whole cinema full of young people does this simultaneously, they are identifying themselves to and with one another.

    This is prosocial, strategic communication – not the antisocial pandemonium and chaos some reports would have us believe. Instead, fans are reporting the cheering and clapping happens at specific moments: they are enjoying both the film, and reacting to it.

    During the brief (but meaningful for knowledgeable audience members) tribute to beloved YouTuber Technoblade, who died of cancer in 2022, there have been reports of whole theatres falling silent as a mark of respect.

    An online community of kids and teens has suddenly become hyper visible to adults because it has intersected with the traditional media space of the cinema.

    Online games such as Minecraft are a crucial part of kids’ social lives and play.

    Perhaps adults can seize this moment as an opportunity to learn more about something that clearly matters deeply to a lot of kids.

    Sophia Staite does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Kids cheering ‘chicken jockey!’ at A Minecraft Movie isn’t antisocial – it creates a chance for us to connect – https://theconversation.com/kids-cheering-chicken-jockey-at-a-minecraft-movie-isnt-antisocial-it-creates-a-chance-for-us-to-connect-254287

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Could changing your diet improve endometriosis pain? A recent study suggests it’s possible

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Evangeline Mantzioris, Program Director of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Accredited Practising Dietitian, University of South Australia

    ovchinnikova_ksenya/Shutterstock

    Endometriosis affects around 10% of women of reproductive age. It’s a chronic inflammatory condition that occurs when tissue similar to the lining of the uterus (the endometrium) grows outside the uterus.

    Endometriosis can cause chronic pain, bloating, bowel and bladder dysfunction, pain during sex and infertility. These symptoms can lead to reduced quality of life and mental health challenges.

    Although endometriosis pain can be treated with medication or surgery, these options are not suitable for everyone, and a significant number of women experience recurrent symptoms even after surgery.

    Many women with endometriosis look to complementary therapies to manage their symptoms, which can include dietary changes and taking supplements.

    A recent study sought to understand different dietary strategies women with endometriosis use and how these affect their pain levels. The researchers found cutting down on things like dairy, gluten, caffeine and alcohol could improve endometriosis pain.

    Let’s take a closer look.

    What the researchers did and found

    The study, which was led by researchers from the University of Edinburgh, involved an online survey. It asked women with endometriosis questions about any dietary changes they made and any supplements they used, and whether they found these useful for managing pain.

    A total of 2,388 women with a confirmed diagnosis of endometriosis completed the survey. Some 84% of respondents had made at least one dietary change, 67% of whom reported these changes improved their pain. Meanwhile, 59% had used supplements, 43% of whom considered these changes improved their pain.

    The following are some of the most popular dietary changes women had tried, and how they thought these changes affected their pain:

    • drinking less alcohol (improved pain in 53% of women)

    • eating less gluten (45%)

    • consuming less dairy (45%)

    • consuming less caffeine (43%)

    • eating less processed sugar, which can be found in foods and drinks such as lollies, cakes, biscuits and soft drinks (41%)

    • eating less processed foods, which include deli meats, savoury snacks such as chips and sausage rolls, and chocolate (38%)

    • following a low FODMAP diet, which involves avoiding short-chain carbohydrates (certain types of sugars) to reduce gas, bloating, pain and discomfort (32%)

    • adopting a Mediterranean diet, which is a diet high in plant foods (including fruit and green leafy vegetables), extra virgin olive oil, breads, fish, fermented dairy, and cereals and low in red meat, and processed meats and foods (29%).

    For supplements:

    • turmeric or curcumin, the active ingredient in turmeric (improved pain in 48% of women)

    • magnesium (32%)

    • peppermint (26%)

    • ginger (22%).

    Around one in ten women of reproductive age have endometriosis.
    Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock

    Some limitations

    There are some weaknesses in this study to consider when interpreting the results. First, it’s an observational study, which means we cannot say these dietary changes and supplements cause decreased pain, just that there appears to be an link.

    To be more confident about the effects of dietary changes or supplements, we would need to do randomised studies with control groups.

    Also, the participants self-reported dietary changes they had made in the past and past pain levels. This relies on memory, which can be unreliable.

    All that said, this sort of research does provide us with clues about what may work, especially when we combine it with our knowledge of the actions these foods and supplements have in the body.

    So how would they work?

    Given the inflammatory component in endometriosis, the findings of this study are not entirely surprising. Many of the dietary changes and supplements this study looked at have anti-inflammtory properties.

    For example, reducing alcohol consumption, reducing processed foods, adopting a Mediterranean diet and using turmeric or curcumin may reduce inflammation.

    It’s possible certain dietary changes could improve endometriosis symptoms by reducing inflammation.
    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    Some of the findings of this study seem to align with other evidence, while others don’t.

    For example, a recent review showed the Mediterranean diet can lead to reductions in pain, however the relevant studies did not have control groups. This same review showed a low FODMAP diet reduced pain and improved quality of life in people with endometriosis.

    Meanwhile, a 2024 paper concluded there’s a lack of evidence to support a gluten-free diet for endometriosis symptoms. The authors argued avoiding gluten to manage the condition should be discouraged.

    Peppermint has been reported to reduce period pain and nausea. But I couldn’t find any specific evidence for endometriosis.

    So what should you do?

    If you have endometriosis, this study and existing evidence suggests following a Mediterranean diet or a low FODMAP diet may reduce pain. This current study also indicates reducing your intake of alcohol, sugar and processed foods may help.

    Importantly, these changes won’t do any harm to your overall health. In fact, the Australian dietary guidelines recommend drinking alcohol and consuming processed foods in moderation, given links to a range of chronic diseases. So these changes may have other benefits too.

    However, some of the dietary changes reported in this study may be problematic.

    For example, eliminating dairy will significantly reduce your calcium intake which is important for building healthy bones and reducing the risk of osteoporosis in later life. However, there are other ways of ensuring an adequate intake of the nutrients found in dairy products.

    Reducing caffeine won’t lead to any health or nutritional concerns, but may affect quality of life for people who enjoy drinking coffee or tea.

    Women with endometriosis can try supplements such as turmeric or curcumin and ginger, but it’s best to try them one at a time, so you can identify which one works for you.

    If you’re looking to change your diet to try to manage endometriosis symptoms, it may be best to see a registered or accredited practising dietitian to ensure you’re following a nutritionally balanced diet.

    Evangeline Mantzioris is affiliated with Alliance for Research in Nutrition, Exercise and Activity (ARENA) at the University of South Australia. Evangeline Mantzioris has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, and has been appointed to the National Health and Medical Research Council Dietary Guideline Expert Committee.

    – ref. Could changing your diet improve endometriosis pain? A recent study suggests it’s possible – https://theconversation.com/could-changing-your-diet-improve-endometriosis-pain-a-recent-study-suggests-its-possible-253945

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Traded like assets, expected to be loyal: the unique double standard of being an Australian footy player

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hunter Fujak, Senior Lecturer in Sport Management, Deakin University

    Few issues in Australian sport generate as much media noise or emotional fan reactions as player movement, especially in our major winter codes the National Rugby League (NRL) and Australian Football League (AFL).

    Contract negotiations, trade whispers and club defections dominate headlines, talkback radio, social media and fan forums — often eclipsing the on-field action itself.

    In the past month, the sport news cycle has been dominated by player movement controversies involving the NRL’s Dylan Brown and Daly Cherry-Evans and the AFL’s Oscar Allen.

    The scrutiny these athletes face is one feature of a workplace defined by expectations rarely found in other industries.

    In a world where professional athletes are simultaneously financial investments and human beings, can fans, athletes and leagues strike a truly fair balance when it comes to player movement?

    A unique legal status

    Professional sport is exempted from several commercial laws that otherwise apply to typical industries. This is due to its peculiar economics.

    Crucially, leagues such as the AFL and NRL are permitted to operate as cartels, whereby clubs act collectively in ways that petrol stations or supermarkets legally cannot.

    One outcome of sport cartels has been the implementation of various restrictive practices on the recruitment, transfer and remuneration of professional athletes.

    Drafts, trade windows and salary caps are all anti-competitive mechanisms with two general aims: fostering “competitive balance” between teams and suppressing player wages to maintain leaguewide financial viability.

    These mechanisms remain in place mostly due to co-operation between leagues and their player associations (the AFLPA and RLPA), as their underlying legal standing is in fact ambiguous.

    Whether the AFL’s draft would survive a court challenge is debatable.

    Australia’s varied player movement rules

    National Rugby League

    The NRL operates a salary cap model with free agency. This affords athletes strong freedom of movement, including the potential to switch clubs mid-season. Some consider this to be a negative, given constant media conjecture over player movements. However, it keeps the NRL perpetually in the headlines.

    In the absence of a draft, individual NRL clubs are responsible for their own junior development and talent identification. The Penrith Panthers’ historic premiership four-peat was underpinned by successfully leveraging their immense junior catchment to develop NRL superstars.

    A benefit of this model is it maximises the opportunity for local juniors to play for their local team. This pathway from local junior to hometown hero authentically contributes to embedding NRL clubs within local communities.

    Australian Football League

    The AFL operates both a draft and salary cap, and players have considerably less autonomy.

    Player movement occurs almost exclusively in the post-season. Despite this, clubs sweet talk rival players in the shadows outside this window, hoping to make signings official in the off-season.

    This practice came into view this week by the controversy surrounding West Coast captain Allen’s meeting with a rival coach.

    The AFL draft takes place after the trade period and is the primary way for athletes to enter the competition.

    The draft order is inverted, linked to clubs’ on-field performance (the team that finishes last receives the first pick).

    Clubs are largely removed from the process of developing junior athletes, which is centralised through the AFL’s national talent pathway.

    The athlete perspective

    While professional athletes are often portrayed as privileged, there are few other professions that impose such severe restraints on the rights of workers.

    The Allen controversy is a reminder the AFL operates a system where the clubs are masters and players well-remunerated servants.

    For the crime of meeting another coach in considering his future, albeit clumsily, Allen was described as “selfish”, “a sell-out,”, “utterly disgusting” and compelled into a press conference apology.

    Criticisms of athletes as selfish scarcely acknowledge that, unlike doctors or lawyers, they have uniquely short timespans to exploit their sporting careers.

    In many sports, as is the case in rugby league, athletes are disproportionately from lower socio-economic settings, where the money is life changing.

    The fan perspective

    Professional sport thrives because fans are emotionally attached to their teams. Fans rarely switch the team they support, so they often expect the same from players.

    Fan attitudes on player loyalty are therefore largely driven by emotion rather than rationality. Few fans employed in contract work would reject meeting a potential future employer because of a sole dedication to their current employer, as was the case for Allen.

    Even fewer fans would reject the ten-year, $13 million contract accepted by Dylan Brown to depart the Parramatta Eels, yet many booed him for doing so, as Melbourne fans did in 2012 after the departure of former No.1 AFL draft pick Tom Scully to Greater Western Sydney.

    In 2007, Parramatta Eels fans even threw coins at departed player Jamie Lyon. Thankfully for Brown, Australia has since become a mainly cashless society.

    Is there a fair balance?

    Player movement in Australian footy codes is a system of regulations that attempts to balance the competing demands of various stakeholders.

    In recent times, the NRL has explored the introduction of trade windows, and drafts, seemingly in response criticism over player movement and competitive imbalance.

    Such proposals have received strong
    pushback from the RLPA.

    Responding to the Allen fallout, AFLPA boss Paul Marsh conceded the AFL ecosystem remains immature to player movement:

    There shouldn’t be outrage about this stuff but there is. As much as I think we should be mature enough to deal with this, it is the industry we are in.

    The challenge for these codes therefore isn’t just regulating player movement but confronting the double standard placed upon athletes that expects loyalty in a system designed to control.

    Hunter Fujak has served as an external advisor to several Australian player associations on a pro-bono basis, including the Rugby League Players Association.

    Joshua McLeod does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Traded like assets, expected to be loyal: the unique double standard of being an Australian footy player – https://theconversation.com/traded-like-assets-expected-to-be-loyal-the-unique-double-standard-of-being-an-australian-footy-player-253618

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: We study ‘planktivores’ – and found an amazing diversity of shapes among plankton-feeding fishes

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Isabelle Ng, PhD candidate, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University

    A couple of whip coral goby (_Bryaninops yongei_). randi_ang/Shutterstock

    Swim along the edge of a coral reef and you’ll often see schools of sleek, torpedo-shaped fishes gliding through the currents, feeding on tiny plankton from the water column.

    For decades, scientists assumed these plankton-feeding fishes – or planktivores – shared specialised traits: forked tails and streamlined body forms for speed, large eyes for spotting small prey, and small extendable jaws for suction-feeding.

    But our new study, published in Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, shows there is more nuance to this story. We found plankton-feeding fishes don’t follow a single uniform design. To our surprise, they display the widest range of body forms of any feeding group among reef fishes.

    Evolving similar traits

    A core idea in evolutionary theory since Charles Darwin is that species facing the same problem often evolve similar traits. This is a process known as convergent evolution. It explains the pattern we see among dolphins, sharks, and tunas – distantly related lineages unified in their streamlined body shape used for fast swimming.

    We set out to test whether the same phenomenon was true for plankton-feeding reef fishes. Planktivores are an ideal group to study in this case.

    For one, plankton-feeding is the most common feeding group among reef fishes – giving us many distantly related species to compare. For another, they all share the same challenge of having to spot and suck out small prey from the water column.

    Yellowtail Fusilier (Caesio cuning).
    Subphoto.com/Shutterstock

    So we asked: do plankton-feeding fishes have a distinct body shape? And do patterns of convergence hold true across a diversity of plankton-feeding reef fishes?

    The broadest range of body shapes

    To answer these questions, we collected shape data from nearly 300 species of reef fishes from 12 globally distributed families – including surgeonfishes, wrasses, snappers, and damselfishes. We measured 15 feeding, swimming, and vision-related traits such as jaw length, tail shape, and pupil size.

    By combining these measurements with evolutionary trees, we tested whether plankton-feeding fishes were distinct in shape to their counterparts.

    But what we found surprised us. Plankton-feeding fishes aren’t converging on a specific body shape. It is quite the opposite – they display the broadest range of body shapes among reef fishes. Some species – such as the schooling fusiliers – truly fit the typical “plankton-feeding” model. They exhibit traits such as a forked tail, torpedo-shaped body, large eyes, and small, extendable jaws.

    But most others break the mould entirely. For example, tiny gobies – just three centimetres long – cling onto whip corals and adopt a sit-and-wait approach for plankton to pass by.

    Other deep-bodied damselfishes depart a small distance from their coral hosts to feed on plankton. But how can we explain this diversity of planktivore body shapes?

    Blotcheye soldierfish (Myripristis berndti).
    Jnichanan/Shutterstock

    An innate ability

    The answer lies in the vast diversity of their behaviours and environments.

    Their body shape isn’t dictated by plankton-feeding alone – it’s shaped by where, when and how they feed. Some planktivores feed during the day, others at night. Some inhabit deep reefs, others are mere metres below the surface of the water. Some are restricted to rubble slopes while others prefer the reef edge. Some even target specific sizes and types of the plankton itself.

    This diversity in activity patterns, habitat use, and prey preferences places different demands on their body forms – explaining why we see such a range of shapes and sizes among plankton-feeding fishes.

    Even species we don’t typically think of as planktivores will feed on plankton when the chance arises. Just last year, while on Lizard Island, we watched yellowmask surgeonfishes – normally feeding on algae and detritus – swimming high above the reef, targeting plankton.

    Perhaps this flexibility shouldn’t surprise us. After all, all reef fishes begin their lives as plankton feeders, floating in the open ocean before settling on the reef. The ability for fishes to feed on plankton is likely innate.

    Yellow mask surgeonfish (Acanthurus mata).
    Marco Lissoni/Shutterstock

    Challenging a longstanding assumption

    Our findings challenge the longstanding assumption that planktivorous reef fishes are distinct in form and are converging towards an optimum body type.

    Instead, plankton-feeding is a highly accessible and flexible feeding strategy on coral reefs – available to fishes of many shapes, sizes, evolutionary histories, and even different feeding groups.

    This has important implications for how we think about reef fish ecology and evolution. It shows that broad feeding categories like “planktivore” can mask the diversity of other behavioural and ecological traits.

    Rather than converging on a single solution, reef fishes highlight something different: that there is more than one way to be a planktivore.

    Isabelle Ng receives funding from the James Cook University Postgraduate Research Scholarship.

    Alexandre Siqueira receives funding from Edith Cowan University as a Vice-Chancellor’s Research Fellow.

    – ref. We study ‘planktivores’ – and found an amazing diversity of shapes among plankton-feeding fishes – https://theconversation.com/we-study-planktivores-and-found-an-amazing-diversity-of-shapes-among-plankton-feeding-fishes-254296

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Do Inuit languages really have many words for snow? The most interesting finds from our study of 616 languages

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Charles Kemp, Professor, School of Psychological Sciences, The University of Melbourne

    Shutterstock

    Languages are windows into the worlds of the people who speak them – reflecting what they value and experience daily.

    So perhaps it’s no surprise different languages highlight different areas of vocabulary. Scholars have noted that Mongolian has many horse-related words, that Maori has many words for ferns, and Japanese has many words related to taste.

    Some links are unsurprising, such as German having many words related to beer, or Fijian having many words for fish. The linguist Paul Zinsli wrote an entire book on Swiss-German words related to mountains.

    In our recently-published study we took a broad approach towards understanding the links between different languages and concepts.

    Using computational methods, we identified areas of vocabulary that are characteristic of specific languages, to provide insight into linguistic and cultural variation.

    Our work adds to a growing understanding of language, culture, and the way they both relate.

    Japanese has many words related to taste. One of these is umami, which is often used to describe the rich taste of matcha green tea.
    Shutterstock

    Our method

    We tested 163 links between languages and concepts, drawn from the literature.

    We compiled a digital dataset of 1574 bilingual dictionaries that translate between English and 616 different languages. Since many of these dictionaries were still under copyright, we only had access to counts of how often a particular word appeared in each dictionary.

    One example of a concept we looked at was “horse”, for which the top-scoring languages included French, German, Kazakh and Mongolian. This means dictionaries in these languages had a relatively high number of

    1. words for horses. For instance, Mongolian аргамаг means “a good racing or riding horse”
    2. words related to horses. For instance, Mongolian чөдөрлөх means “to hobble a horse”.

    However, it is also possible the counts were influenced by “horse” appearing in example sentences for unrelated terms.

    Not a hoax after all?

    Our findings support most links previously highlighted by researchers, including that Hindi has many words related to love and Japanese has many words related to obligation and duty.

    ‘Silk’ was one of the most popular concepts for Mandarin Chinese.
    Shutterstock

    We were especially interested in testing the idea that Inuit languages have many words for snow. This notorious claim has long been distorted and exaggerated. It has even been dismissed as the “great Eskimo vocabulary hoax”, with some experts saying it simply isn’t true.

    But our results suggest the Inuit snow vocabulary is indeed exceptional. Out of 616 languages, the language with the top score for “snow” was Eastern Canadian Inuktitut. The other two Inuit languages in our data set (Western Canadian Inuktitut and North Alaskan Inupiatun) also achieved high scores for “snow”.

    The Eastern Canadian Inuktitut dictionary in our dataset includes terms such as kikalukpok, which means “noisy walking on hard snow”, and apingaut, which means “first snow fall”.

    The top 20 languages for “snow” included several other languages of Alaska, such as Ahtena, Dena’ina and Central Alaskan Yupik, as well as Japanese and Scots.

    Scots includes terms such as doon-lay, meaning “a heavy fall of snow”, feughter meaning “a sudden, slight fall of snow”, and fuddum, meaning “snow drifting at intervals”.

    You can explore our findings using the tool below, which allows you to identify the top languages for any given concept, and the top concepts for a particular language.

    Language and environment

    Although the languages with top scores for “snow” are all spoken in snowy regions, the top-ranked languages for “rain” were not always from the rainiest parts of the world.

    For instance, South Africa has a medium level of rainfall, but languages from this region, such as Nyanja, East Taa and Shona, have many rain-related words. This is probably because, unlike snow, rain is important for human survival – which means people still talk about it in its absence.

    For speakers of East Taa, rain is both relatively rare and desirable. This is reflected in terms such as lábe ||núu-bâ, an “honorific form of address to thunder to bring rain” and |qába, which refers to the “ritual sprinkling of water or urine to bring rain”.

    Our tool can also be used to explore various concepts related to perception (“smell”), emotion (“love”) and cultural beliefs (“ghost”).

    The top-scoring languages for “smell” include a cluster of Oceanic languages such as Marshallese, which has terms such as jatbo meaning “smell of damp clothing”, meļļā meaning “smell of blood”, and aelel meaning “smell of fish, lingering on hands, body, or utensils”.

    Prior to our research, the smell terms of the Pacific Islands had received little attention.

    Some caveats

    Although our analysis reveals many interesting links between languages and concepts, the results aren’t always reliable – and should be checked against original dictionaries where possible.

    For example, the top concepts for Plautdietsch (Mennonite Low German) include von (“of”), den (“the”) and und (“and”) – all of which are unrevealing. We excluded similar words from other languages using Wiktionary, but our method did not filter out these common words for Plautdietsch.

    Also, the word counts reflect both dictionary definitions and other elements, such as example sentences. While our analysis excluded words that are especially likely to appear in example sentences (such as “woman” and “father”), such words could have still influenced our results to some extent.

    Most importantly, our results run the risk of perpetuating potentially harmful stereotypes if taken at face value. So we urge caution and respect while using the tool. The concepts it lists for any given language provide, at best, a crude reflection of the cultures associated with that language.

    Charles Kemp was supported by a Future Fellowship (FT190100200) awarded by the Australian Research Council.

    Temuulen Khishigsuren was supported by a Future Fellowship (FT190100200) awarded by the Australian Research Council.

    Ekaterina Vylomova and Terry Regier do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Do Inuit languages really have many words for snow? The most interesting finds from our study of 616 languages – https://theconversation.com/do-inuit-languages-really-have-many-words-for-snow-the-most-interesting-finds-from-our-study-of-616-languages-252522

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What the Supreme Court’s ruling on man wrongly deported to El Salvador says about presidential authority and the rule of law

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jean Lantz Reisz, Clinical Associate Professor of Law, Co-Director, USC Immigration Clinic, University of Southern California

    People hold signs on April 4, 2025, supporting Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who was mistakenly deported to El Salvador. AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

    The Supreme Court on April 10, 2025, unanimously upheld the lower court order directing the Trump administration to “facilitate” the return of Kilmar Abrego García, a Maryland man who was wrongly deported to a maximum security prison in El Salvador.

    The Supreme Court also directed the lower court to clarify aspects of the order.

    “The order properly requires the Government to ‘facilitate’ Abrego García’s release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent to El Salvador,” the Supreme Court order states.

    It is undisputed that the Trump administration made a mistake.

    The Justice Department admitted to deporting Abrego García to a maximum security prison in El Salvador even though an immigration judge in 2019 ordered that he not be deported. The judge did so under an immigration law called “withholding of removal,” which is a protection, like asylum, for people facing persecution in their home country.

    But the Trump administration has said a court cannot order it to fix its mistake and bring Abrego García back to the United States.

    According to the Trump administration, such an order would be “constitutionally intolerable.” The government has compared the court order to return Abrego García to an order to “‘effectuate’ the end of the war in Ukraine or return hostages from Gaza.”

    Abrego García should not have been deported

    Abrego García received this protective legal status six years ago. That’s when he proved to the court he was highly likely to be persecuted by the government or gangs in El Salvador due to a specific reason, as required under immigration law.

    Unlike asylum or refugee status, the status known as “withholding of removal” is not a pathway to citizenship. It allows a person to live and work in the U.S. indefinitely and not be deported to their country of nationality if they face persecution there.

    The government states it arrested and deported Abrego García on March 15 because he is a gang member. When Abrego García appealed his deportation, the federal district and appellate courts determined that the government provided no credible evidence of gang membership.

    That’s important, because the government failed to follow proper procedure to deport Abrego García based on gang membership. When someone is in “withholding of removal” status, the law requires the government to reopen immigration proceedings based on new evidence and seek to formally terminate the legal withholding status.

    Abrego García should have been notified of the government’s desire to deport him, and he should have had the opportunity to make his case at a court hearing. His summary deportation to El Salvador likely violated his right to due process under immigration law and the Constitution.

    Balance of powers are at stake

    The government did not follow the law, but it argues that the court cannot do anything about it.

    The crux of the government’s position is that a court does not have the power to order the release of a person in a foreign prison. That would interfere with the separation of powers among the executive and judicial branches. The president has the sole power to conduct foreign relations with El Salvador, and the government has argued that ordering the return of Abrego García interferes with that power.

    Prisoners watch as U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem visits the Terrorist Confinement Center in Tecoluca, El Salvador, on March 26, 2025.
    Alex Brandon/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

    The court cannot order the Salvadoran government to do anything, but it can order the U.S. government to take steps to return García Abrego if he was unlawfully arrested and deported. That’s because the judiciary has the power to determine whether the president’s actions are lawful.

    The district court’s order was based on its determination that the president has likely violated immigration law and the Constitution in arresting and deporting Abrego García. The appellate court agreed.

    The Supreme Court has now said the order to facilitate Abrego García’s return is proper. But the high court also said the district court judge should further clarify its order, being mindful of the president’s authority when it comes to conducting foreign relations.

    Who is detaining Abrego García?

    The Salvadoran government seems to be imprisoning Abrego García at the request of the U.S. government.

    Trump administration lawyers have suggested in their briefing to the Supreme Court that there could be reasons under El Salvador law for Abrego García’s imprisonment. The government has not identified any reasons and has not provided any evidence that Abrego García is charged with a crime in El Salvador, or that he is being held under Salvadoran law.

    The Department of Homeland Security routinely contracts with local jails and for-profit prison corporations to temporarily house immigrant detainees in the U.S. The government has reportedly agreed to pay El Salvador US$6 million to imprison certain U.S. immigrant detainees for one year. The details of this agreement are not known.

    Kristi Noem, the Homeland Security secretary, has said that the Salvadoran megaprison is “one of the tools in our tool kit that we will use.”

    The district and appellate courts determined in this case that the U.S. is using the Salvadoran prison like any other detention facility. Under those circumstances, the U.S. government, not El Salvador, has ultimate control over Abrego García.

    The Supreme Court ruled that the government should facilitate Abrego García’s return.
    Drew Angerer/Getty Images

    As an immigration law scholar, I believe that the government can take steps to return Abrego García.

    In fact, other appellate courts have ordered the government to return immigrants who had been removed from the U.S. but later won their appeals of their removal orders. Those people were not in foreign prisons.

    U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has created a formal policy for aiding the return of immigrants who were deported while their appeals were pending and then subsequently won their appeals.

    The government has argued that those situations are different. Here, it claims the court cannot demand the return of Abrego García, who is imprisoned in another country. The problem with the government’s argument is that it is the Trump administration that put Abrego García in a foreign prison.

    The Trump administration has also argued that Abrego García is not entitled to return to the U.S.. It has argued that even though it was a mistake to deport him to El Salvador under his withholding of removal status, Abrego García could have been removed to another country and has no right to return to the U.S..

    This would be true if Abrego García voluntarily left the U.S. or was deported to a country other than El Salvador, but that is not what happened. The government removed Abrego García to El Salvador in violation of U.S. law.

    The White House’s position in this matter is troubling because the president is supposed to enforce the law, not circumvent it.

    As Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote in a separate statement published with the order and joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson: “The Government’s argument, moreover, implies that it could deport and incarcerate any person, including U.S. citizens, without legal consequence, so long as it does so before a court can intervene.”

    What steps the government will take to return Abrego García is unclear. The Supreme Court’s decision leaves open the question of how far the court can go to enforce his return.

    Jean Lantz Reisz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What the Supreme Court’s ruling on man wrongly deported to El Salvador says about presidential authority and the rule of law – https://theconversation.com/what-the-supreme-courts-ruling-on-man-wrongly-deported-to-el-salvador-says-about-presidential-authority-and-the-rule-of-law-254037

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor gains 5-point lead in a YouGov poll, taken during Trump tariff chaos

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    A national YouGov poll, conducted April 4–10 from a sample of 1,505, gave Labor a 52.5–47.5 lead, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the March 28 to April 3 YouGov poll. This is Labor’s best result in YouGov for 18 months, and slightly better for Labor than the 2022 election result (52.1–47.9 to Labor).

    Primary votes were 33.5% Coalition (down 1.5), 32% Labor (up two), 13% Greens (steady), 8.5% One Nation (up 1.5), 1% Trumpet of Patriots (down one), 9% independents (down one) and 3% others (steady). By 2022 election preference flows, Labor would lead by over 53.5–46.5.

    Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved four points to -2, with 47% dissatisfied and 45% satisfied. In the last two weeks, Albanese has gained seven points on net approval. Peter Dutton’s net approval was steady at -15. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 48–37 (45–38 previously).

    The only other national poll since last Sunday’s article was a Morgan poll that also had Labor extending its lead. The poll graph below shows Labor has kept improving in the polls since early March. With three weeks to go until the May 3 election, Labor is the likely winner.

    The YouGov poll was taken during the period after Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2, leading to a week of chaos on the stock markets. While US markets had their biggest one-day gain since 2008 on Wednesday after Trump suspended some of his tariffs for 90 days, they slumped again Thursday owing to the very high tariffs on China.

    I believe the more Trump is in the news for doing things that potentially damage the US and world economies, the more Labor will be assisted in the polls by not being the more pro-Trump major party.

    Candidate nominations for the federal election will be declared today after they closed Thursday. If candidates now embarrass their party, they can’t be replaced but only disendorsed; their names will still appear on the ballot paper.

    Morgan poll: Labor increases solid lead

    A national Morgan poll, conducted March 31 to April 4 from a sample of 1,481, gave Labor a 53.5–46.5 lead by headline respondent preferences, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the March 24–30 Morgan poll.

    Primary votes were 33% Coalition (down two), 32.5% Labor (up 0.5), 13.5% Greens (up 0.5), 6% One Nation (up 0.5), 1.5% Trumpet of Patriots (new for this pollster), 9% independents (down 1.5) and 4.5% others. By 2022 election flows, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a one-point gain for Labor.

    By 52–33, voters said the country was going in the wrong direction (51.5–32 previously). Morgan’s consumer confidence index increased 1.5 points to 86.8; this poll was taken before the stock market falls.

    Politicians’ net favourable ratings and seat polls

    I previously covered a national Redbridge poll for the News Corp tabloids that gave Labor a 52–48 lead. This poll asked about net favourable ratings for various politicians. Jacqui Lambie was at net -1 favourable, Albanese at -4, Dutton at -15, Greens leader Adam Bandt at -17, Pauline Hanson at -23 and Clive Palmer at -49.

    The Poll Bludger reported on Thursday a seat poll of McMahon by right-wing pollster Compass had Labor incumbent Chris Bowen on just 19% of the primary vote (48.0% in 2022). Bowen trailed the Liberals on 20% and right-wing independent Matt Camenzuli on 41%. The Poll Bludger was very sceptical of this poll.

    A uComms seat poll of Teal-held Wentworth for Climate 200 had teal Allegra Spender leading the Liberals by 58–42 (55.9–44.1 at the 2022 election adjusted for a redistribution). Neither of the polls above gave fieldwork dates, with both having a sample over 1,000. Seat polls are unreliable.

    Canadian and South Korean elections

    The Canadian election is on April 28, and it’s increasingly likely the governing centre-left Liberals will win a seat majority after they were 24 points behind the Conservatives in early January. There hasn’t been much movement from the Trump tariff chaos in the last week, but Trump’s US ratings are down.

    On April 4, South Korea’s Constitutional Court upheld the right-wing president’s impeachment by parliament in December after he declared martial law. A new presidential election was required and will be held on June 3. The centre-left Democrats are very likely to win, and they already have a big parliamentary majority. I covered these elections for The Poll Bludger on Thursday.

    Victorian state Redbridge poll: Coalition narrowly ahead

    A Victorian state Redbridge poll, reported in The Herald Sun, was conducted March 24 to April 2 from a sample of 2,013. It gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since November. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (down two), 29% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (down one) and 17% for all Others (up four). This poll is not as bad for Labor as other recent Victorian polls.

    Liberal leader Brad Battin was at +2 net favourable while Labor Premier Jacinta Allan was at a dismal -35. By 52–27, voters did not think the Labor government had the right priorities. By 46–29, voters supported the Suburban Rail Loop. Over 50% thought the government’s changes to machete and bail laws too lenient.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Labor gains 5-point lead in a YouGov poll, taken during Trump tariff chaos – https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-5-point-lead-in-a-yougov-poll-taken-during-trump-tariff-chaos-253738

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Sorry gamers, Nintendo’s hefty Switch 2 price tag signals the new normal – and it might still go up

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Egliston, Senior Lecturer in Digital Cultures, Australian Research Council DECRA Fellow, University of Sydney

    Last week, Nintendo announced the June 5 release of its long anticipated Switch 2. But the biggest talking point wasn’t the console’s launch titles or features. At US$449 in the United States, and A$699 in Australia, many were struck by the steep cost.

    However, this price doesn’t seem quite as high once you compare it to the broader history of hardware pricing. And it may still go up.

    History of Nintendo pricing

    The original NES (Nintendo Entertainment System) console cost US$179 when it was released in 1985. That’s US$525, or A$590, adjusted for 2025 inflation.

    But other consoles have been even pricier. The PlayStation 3 launched in North America in 2006 at around US$499 (US$782 today). When it launched in Australia the next year, it retailed at A$999 (upwards of A$1500 today).

    Nintendo’s main competitors are Sony (Xbox) and Microsoft (PlayStation). Both are subsidised by their broader media and technology businesses, which means they can afford to make higher-cost consoles, and even take losses on console sales.

    The Xbox Series X and Playstation 5 both launched in Australia for A$749 in 2020.
    Shutterstock

    Compared to Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft depend more heavily on licensing third-party content and offering subscription services, such as Xbox Game Pass, to drive recurring revenue.

    Nintendo’s business model, by contrast, revolves around selling both its consoles and original “first-party” titles.

    Nintendo also takes a different approach to console development, by prioritising lower-spec, lower-cost hardware aimed at a broader and often more casual audience. The company has typically made profits on both its hardware and software (particularly its first-party games).

    Our research suggests many players appreciate this strategy. Rather than competing directly with Sony and Microsoft on technical performance, they felt Nintendo focused on delivering fun and accessible experiences through affordable technology.

    Still, the current economic conditions make the Switch 2’s price hard to swallow. With the rising cost of living and stagnant wages, even historically “normal” prices can feel out of reach.

    The tariff question

    Why is Nintendo increasing the price of Switch 2 – especially given the enormous commercial success of the original 2017 Switch at its lower price point of US$299 and A$469?

    The Switch 2 release was announced on the same day the Trump administration unveiled plans for sweeping new tariffs, including a proposed minimum 10% tariff on all imports (and higher on Vietnam, China and Cambodia, where Nintendo manufactures its consoles).

    Doug Bowser, president at Nintendo of America, has claimed tariffs “weren’t factored into the pricing” of the Switch 2.

    But it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Nintendo simply absorbs those costs. The company has historically maintained positive margins on hardware. It is also famously conservative when it comes to its pricing strategy.

    Not just tariffs — and not just Nintendo

    The Switch 2’s price tag is a window into broader shifts in the business of games. Games are more popular than ever. And apart from a small dip in 2022, they’re making more money than ever.

    But they’re also more expensive to make. Reports claim Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War had a combined development and marketing budget of around US$700 million.

    Low interest rates, particularly during the pandemic, meant rising production costs could be offset by cheap money from big publishing, technology, and entertainment conglomerates investing in videogame companies.

    Venture capital firms and tech giants alike piled in. The result was huge growth for the industry, as well as some blockbuster mergers.

    But the era of near-zero interest rates is no more – and the flow of money that once covered soaring development costs is slowing down.

    Gaming companies have responded with mass layoffs, further exacerbated by exuberance (largely from management) for artificial intelligence to increase efficiency. Beyond this, they are turning to more aggressive monetisation strategies.

    Games such as Fortnite and Call of Duty don’t just make money from sales. They keep players inside their ecosystems, spending money over time.

    Research has shown developers are increasingly designing games for ongoing user monestisation,
    whether through micro-transactions, battle passes, extra downloadable content, subscriptions or in-game advertising.



    Read more:
    ‘Literally just child gambling’: what kids say about Roblox, lootboxes and money in online games

    What happens next?

    Between tariffs, inflation and rising game development costs, the US$450 Switch 2 (and its US$80/A$110 games) may just be the beginning. In the short term, we’re likely to see higher prices for both consoles and games.

    The effects of US tariffs on Switch 2 pricing in Australia remain unclear. However, the Australian dollar’s recent roller coaster ride, partly driven by uncertainty over US tariffs, could mean further price hikes to offset increased import costs.

    We saw Sony adjust prices for the PS5 mid-generation in response to production costs. There’s no reason to assume the Switch 2 price will remain static.

    In the longer term, we’re entering a market where the line between “freemium” and “premium” continues to blur. Premium games now often come with built-in expectations of ongoing monetisation, moving away from one-off sales.

    Platform holders such as Nintendo remained notable exceptions, favouring upfront pricing and self-contained experiences. Although they, too, may gradually shift away from this.

    Ben Egliston is a recipient of funding from the Australian Research Council (DE240101275, DP250100343). He has previously received funding from Meta and TikTok.

    Taylor Hardwick is employed under funding by the Australian Research Council (FF220100076; DE240101275). She is a board member of both Freeplay, a Melbourne-based independent games festival, and the Digital Games Research Association of Australia.

    Tianyi Zhangshao does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Sorry gamers, Nintendo’s hefty Switch 2 price tag signals the new normal – and it might still go up – https://theconversation.com/sorry-gamers-nintendos-hefty-switch-2-price-tag-signals-the-new-normal-and-it-might-still-go-up-254063

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Yes, government influences wages – but not just in the way you might think

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Peetz, Laurie Carmichael Distinguished Research Fellow at the Centre for Future Work, and Professor Emeritus, Griffith Business School, Griffith University

    doublelee/Shutterstock

    Can the government actually make a difference to the wages Australians earn?

    A lot of attention always falls on the government’s submission to the Fair Work Commission’s annual wage review, which this year called for a real boost to award wages, above the rate of inflation.

    The commission’s decision has a big impact on wages received by at least a quarter of employees, many among the lowest paid. While the government’s submission must make some difference to the outcome, it’s hard to quantify how much of a difference that is.

    My new research for the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work focuses on another, possibly bigger impact the government can have on wages – certainly one that affects a wider range of workers. This is its effect on the bargaining power of all workers and employers.

    We had a long period of poor wages growth, against a backdrop of low power for workers, driven both by markets and policy. More recently, though, the tide has started to turn.



    Read more:
    Labor wants to give the minimum wage a real boost. The benefits would likely outweigh any downsides

    The economy and worker power

    In recent decades, trends in the economy and labour market almost all worked to reduce worker power. My research examined 16 economic or related factors that were considered to either influence or indicate power in the labour market.

    Almost all have reduced workers’ power over the medium to long term. One had ambiguous effects. Only one had the opposite effect and helped boost worker power for a while.

    Among the many factors reinforcing or reflecting less bargaining power for workers were:

    • long-term declines in union membership, collective bargaining coverage and industrial action
    • the expansion of the “gig economy”
    • the growth of casual employment, particularly between the 1980s and 2000s
    • a reduction in job switching among employees
    • growing use of outsourcing and contracting out, to do work formerly undertaken within large organisations

    A decline in the gender pay gap suggested a gradual increase in female workers’ power, relative to equivalent male workers at least.

    The only factor that could increase overall worker power was the decline in unemployment from 2010 to 2023 (setting aside the pandemic blip).

    Policies limiting workers’ power

    With the Coalition in government from 2014 to 2022, a lot of policy acted to reinforce the loss of worker power that had happened due to economic and labour market trends.

    Of the seven major federal policy changes considered in this period, five acted to reduce workers’ power (including the establishment of new bodies regulating unions and the abolition of a transport safety regulator).

    Only two increased it (including some tighter regulation of franchises).

    A change of course

    After Labor came to power in 2022, a series of (mostly legislative) changes were introduced. Out of 23 federal policies implemented by the government, 22 increased workers’ power.

    These included policies to:

    • abolish new bodies regulating unions
    • limit the use of fixed-term contracts
    • expand workers’ rights to request flexibility
    • make it harder for firms to classify workers as contractors
    • create protections for “employee-like” workers
    • expand the scope for multi-employer bargaining.

    Only one reduced worker power – clarifying certain exemptions for small business – and its impact was neither large nor controversial.

    What’s been the outcome for wages?

    So, what’s happened to Australian wages under these different policy environments?

    Some policies, such as protections for “employee-like” workers, could not yet have a measurable impact. The most recent policy, banning non-compete clauses for middle and lower-income workers, was only announced in March.

    Still, three major measures of wages growth, that performed poorly from 2014 to 2022, showed some upturn from the end of 2022.

    Overall, wages growth mostly averaged a little over 2% per year through most of the period from 2014, falling then recovering in the pandemic.

    It’s been 3%, 4%, or more since the end of 2022, against a backdrop of higher inflation.

    Wage increases under new enterprise agreements gradually declined from around 3.5% a year in 2014 to about 2.5% in 2022. However, they have grown since then and peaked at 4.8% at the end of last year.

    The data suggest wage gains associated with increased worker power are experienced by both union members and non-members – but that union members benefit the most.

    Inflation not the cause

    There’s an argument that Australia’s recent growth in wages is simply a response to a temporary surge in inflation.

    But we can look at how big a share wages make up of Australia’s total national income. From 2014 to 2022, we see the wages share of national income falling, then rising sharply until today. If inflation was the only cause of the upturn, labour’s share would not have grown like this.

    This increase occurred while inflation was falling — from over 7% at the end of 2022, to below 3% at the end of 2024. So, wages growth clearly hasn’t caused a rise in inflation.

    The verdict: do governments really make a difference?

    My research suggests the answer is yes, governments can influence wages. The direction of influence depends very much on who is in government, most importantly in the federal parliament.

    One of the biggest ways governments have affected wages over the past decade has been by taking power away from workers — and then by giving some of it back.

    Returning some of that power to workers has correlated with the fastest growth in wages for a decade, and a growing share of national income going to wages, despite falling inflation.

    As a university employee, David Peetz undertook research over many years with occasional financial support from governments from both sides of politics, employers and unions. He has been and is involved in several Australian Research Council-funded and approved projects, which included contributions from those bodies, and undertaken several private commissioned projects, including one in which he gave expert evidence commissioned by both sides in a State Wage Case.

    – ref. Yes, government influences wages – but not just in the way you might think – https://theconversation.com/yes-government-influences-wages-but-not-just-in-the-way-you-might-think-254282

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Extinctions of Australian mammals have long been blamed on foxes and cats – but where’s the evidence?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Arian Wallach, Future Fellow in Ecology, Queensland University of Technology

    michael garner/Shutterstock

    In 1938, zoologist Ellis Le Geyt Troughton mourned that Australia’s “gentle and specialized creatures” were “unable to cope with changed conditions and introduced enemies”.

    The role of these “enemies” – namely, foxes and feral cats – in driving dozens of Australia’s animals towards extinction has solidified into a scientific consensus. This is a simple and plausible story: wily new predators arrive, decimating unwary native mammals.

    In response, conservationists and governments have declared war on foxes and cats with large-scale trapping, shooting and poisoning campaigns.

    But did foxes and cats definitely cause the extinction of animals such as the desert bandicoot, lesser bilby and the central hare-wallaby? Our new research shows the evidence base is nowhere near as strong as you might assume.

    Feral cats are now found across almost all of Australia. But cats took decades to cover the continent.
    Mike Letnic/iNaturalist, CC BY-NC

    What did we do?

    We catalogued mammal species experts believe have either declined or gone extinct due to predation by foxes (57 species) and cats (80 species) and searched for primary sources linking foxes and cats to their decline. To assess the evidence, we then asked three simple questions.

    1. Did extinctions follow the arrival of new predators?

    A common claim is that extinctions followed fox and cat arrival and spread.

    But is it definitely true? To find out, we compiled the last recorded sightings of extinct mammals and compared them to maps estimating the arrival of foxes and cats in the area. We included local extinctions (extinct in an area) and full extinctions, where the species is no more.

    We found extinction records for 164 local populations of 52 species. Nearly a third (31%) of these records did not confirm the timeline that extinctions followed predator arrival. We found that 44% of the extinctions blamed on foxes and 20% on cats could have happened before predator arrival.

    Records can be inaccurate. But our findings mean we can’t authoritatively state that foxes and cats were at the scene of these crimes. For instance, banded hare-wallabies now live only on two islands in Western Australia. They were last recorded on the mainland 4–30 years before foxes are known to have arrived.

    Then there are examples of coexistence. The eastern barred bandicoot lived alongside cats on the mainland for more than 150 years before becoming extinct on the mainland, and the two species continue to live together in Tasmania.

    2. Is there evidence linking foxes and cats to extinctions?

    Our study found experts attribute predation pressure from foxes and cats as a reason why 57% of Australia’s threatened mammals are at risk of extinction.

    For this claim to be based on evidence, we would expect to find ecological studies finding these links in most cases.

    We found 331 studies and categorised each according to whether they contained predator and prey population data and if they found a link between introduced predators and a decline in the prey species.

    For 76% of threatened species attributed to foxes and 80% for cats, we found no studies supporting this with population data.

    Experts aren’t claiming foxes and cats are the main threat in all these cases. But when we analysed the data only for the species experts consider at high risk from foxes and cats, we found similar results.

    For example, foxes and cats are ranked a “high” threat to mountain pygmy possums. We found anecdotes that foxes and cats sometimes eat these possums, but no studies showing they cause population decline.

    Similarly, foxes are widely linked to the decline of black-footed rock-wallabies. But this claim came from poison-baiting studies which did not report data showing what happened to the fox population. This is important, because killing foxes does not necessarily reduce fox populations.

    In 50% of studies reporting population data, there was no negative association with these predators. This further weakens the claim that foxes and cats directly drive extinctions.

    For example, cats are considered a “high” threat to long-nosed potoroos. But population studies on these potoroos don’t support this. In fact, these small, seemingly vulnerable animals are able to live alongside feral cats.

    By contrast, we did find one species – the brush-tailed rabbit rat – which had compelling evidence across all studies linking cats to its decline.

    Long-nosed potoroos would be an appealing meal for foxes and cats. But these small marsupials have found ways to evade predators.
    Zoos Victoria, CC BY-NC

    3. Do more introduced predators mean fewer threatened mammals?

    If introduced predators cause extinctions, we would expect to find that higher predator numbers is associated with lower prey numbers (and vice versa). While correlations such as these don’t prove causation, they can give an indication.

    We conducted a meta-analysis and found a negative correlation with foxes. The more foxes, the fewer threatened mammals.

    This is the strongest evidence we found for introduced predators putting pressure on these species. But there are limitations – these findings would be typical for native predators and prey as well.

    We found no evidence for a correlation with cats.

    More lines of evidence

    These aren’t the only lines of evidence. Making the strongest case for fox and cat pressure are studies finding extinct species often fall within a critical weight range – 35 grams to 5.5 kilos – which are good-sized prey for foxes and cats.

    While this finding has been debated, it remains strong evidence.

    But these studies don’t explain why Australian animals would be uniquely vulnerable. For millennia, Australia’s mammals have lived alongside predators such as dingoes, Tasmanian devils, quolls and wedge-tailed eagles.

    Conservationists have long believed Australia’s endemic mammals are naive or poorly adapted to survive alongside ambush hunters such as foxes and cats. But there’s no current evidence for this.

    Our research has shown Australian rodents respond to foxes in the same way as do North American and Middle Eastern rodents, who evolved alongside foxes.

    One line of argument goes further to suggest that foxes, cats and dingoes have “rewired” Australian ecosystems following the loss of the thylacine, Tasmanian devil (once common on the mainland) and the long-extinct marsupial lion.

    What should we conclude?

    We didn’t set out to prove or disprove the idea that foxes and cats drive extinctions. Instead, our study lays out the available primary evidence of historic records and studies to allow readers to draw their own conclusions.

    Sweeping claims have been made about Australia’s introduced predators. But when we analyse the evidence base, we find it ambiguous, weak and – in most cases – lacking.

    Foxes and cats have been largely convicted by expert opinion which, while useful, can be prone to bias and groupthink.

    So what did cause Australia’s mammal extinctions? The honest answer is we don’t know. It could be foxes and cats – but it could also be something else.

    Arian Wallach receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Erick Lundgren receives funding from the Centre for Open Science & Synthesis in Ecology and Evolution at the University of Alberta

    – ref. Extinctions of Australian mammals have long been blamed on foxes and cats – but where’s the evidence? – https://theconversation.com/extinctions-of-australian-mammals-have-long-been-blamed-on-foxes-and-cats-but-wheres-the-evidence-253542

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: As more communities have to consider relocation, we explore what happens to the land after people leave

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christina Hanna, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Planning, University of Waikato

    Christina Hanna, CC BY-SA

    Once floodwaters subside, talk of planned retreat inevitably rises.

    Within Aotearoa New Zealand, several communities from north to south – including Kumeū, Kawatiri Westport and parts of Ōtepoti Dunedin – are considering future relocations while others are completing property buyouts and categorisations.

    Planned retreats may reduce exposure to harm, but the social and cultural burdens of dislocation from land and home are complex. Planning, funding and physically relocating or removing homes, taonga or assets – and even entire towns – is challenging.

    Internationally, research has focused on why, when and how planned retreats occur, as well as who pays. But we explore what happens to the places we retreat from.

    Our latest research examines 161 international case studies of planned retreat. We analysed what happens beyond retreat, revealing how land use has changed following withdrawal of human activities.

    We found a wide range of land use following retreat. In some cases, comprehensive planning for future uses of land was part of the retreat process. But in others we found a failure to consider these changing places.

    Planned retreats have happened in response to various climate and hazard risks, including sea-level rise and coastal erosion, tsunami, cyclones, earthquakes, floods and landslides.

    The case studies we investigated range from gradual transitions to sudden changes, such as from residential or business activities to conservation or vacant lands. In some cases, “sea change” is evident, where once dry land becomes foreshore and seabed.

    Through our research, we identified global “retreat legacies”. These themes demonstrate how communities across the world have sought similar outcomes, highlighting primary land-use patterns following retreat.

    Case studies reveal several themes in what happens to land after people withdraw.
    Hanna,C, White I,Cretney, R, Wallace, P, CC BY-SA

    Nature legacies

    The case studies show significant conversions of private to public land, with new nature and open-space reserves. Sites have been rehabilitated and floodplains and coastal ecosystems restored and reconnected.

    Open spaces are used for various purposes, including as nature, community, stormwater or passive recreational reserves. Some of these new zones may restrict structures or certain activities, depending on the risk.

    For example, due to debris flow hazard in Matatā in the Bay of Plenty, only transitory recreation or specific low-risk activities are allowed in the post-retreat environment because of the high risk to human life.

    Planning and investment in new open-space zones range from basic rehabilitation (grassed sites) to established parks and reserves, such as the Grand Forks riverfront greenway which borders rivers in the twin US cities of Grand Forks, North Dakota, and East Grand Forks, Minnesota. This area now hosts various recreational courses and connected trails as well as major flood protection measures.

    Project Twin Streams has transformed former residential sites to allow rivers to roam in the floodplain.
    Wikimedia Commons/Ingolfson, CC BY-SA

    Nature-based adaptations are a key function in this retreat legacy. For example, Project Twin Streams, a large-scale environmental restoration project in Waitakere, West Auckland, has transformed former residential sites into drainage reserves to make room for rivers in the floodplain.

    Importantly, not all retreats require significant land-use change. Continued farming, heritage preservation and cultural activities show that planned retreats are not always full and final withdrawals from a place.

    Instead, they represent an adapted relationship. While sensitive activities are relocated, other practices may remain, such as residents’ continued access to the old village of Vunidogoloa in Fiji for fishing and farming.

    Social and economic legacies

    Urban development in a small number of retreated sites has involved comprehensive spatial reorganisation, with planning for new urban esplanades, improved infrastructure and cultural amenities.

    One example is the comprehensive infrastructure masterplan for the Caño Martín Peña district in San Juan, Puerto Rico, which involves communities living along a tidal channel. The plan applied a community-first approach to retreat. It integrated infrastructure, housing, open space, flood mitigation and ecological planning.

    Alternatively, the decision to remove stopbanks and return the landscape to a “waterscape” can become a tourism feature, such as in the marshlands of the Biesbosch National Park in the Netherlands. A museum is dedicated to the transformed environment.

    The Biesbosch marshland nature reserve was created following historic flooding.
    Shutterstock/Rudmer Zwerver

    Where there was no post-retreat planning or site rehabilitation, ghost towns such as Missouri’s Pattonsburg leave eerie reminders of the costs of living in danger zones.

    Vacant and abandoned sites also raise environmental justice and ecological concerns about which retreat spaces are invested in and rehabilitated to avoid urban blight and environmental risks. Retreat sites may include landfills or contaminated land, requiring major site rehabilitation.

    The 12 case studies from Aotearoa New Zealand demonstrate a range of new land uses. These include new open-space reserves, the restoration of floodplains and coastal environments, risk mitigation and re-development, and protection measures such as stopbanks.

    Moving beyond retreat

    Our research highlights how planned retreats can create a transition in landscapes, with potential for a new sense of place, meaning and strategic adaptation.

    We found planned retreats have impacts beyond the retreat site, which reinforces the value of spatial planning.

    The definition and practices of “planned or managed retreat” must include early planning to account of the values and uses the land once had. Any reconfigurations of land and seascapes must imagine a future well beyond people’s retreat.

    Christina Hanna received funding from the national science challenge Resilience to Nature’s Challenges Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūroa and from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s Endeavour Fund.

    Iain White received funding from the national science challenge Resilience to Nature’s Challenges Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūroa, from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s Endeavour Fund and from the Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake. He is New Zealand’s national contact point for climate, energy and mobility for the European Union’s Horizon Europe research program.

    Raven Cretney received funding from the national science challenge Resilience to Nature’s Challenges Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūroa.

    Pip Wallace does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. As more communities have to consider relocation, we explore what happens to the land after people leave – https://theconversation.com/as-more-communities-have-to-consider-relocation-we-explore-what-happens-to-the-land-after-people-leave-253653

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Better cleaning of hospital equipment could cut patient infections by one-third – and save money

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brett Mitchell, Professor of Nursing and Health Services Research, University of Newcastle

    Annie Spratt/Unsplash

    Hospital-acquired infections are infections patients didn’t have when they were admitted to hospital. The most common include wound infections after surgery, urinary tract infections and pneumonia.

    These can have a big impact for patients, often increasing their time in hospital, requiring additional treatment and causing discomfort. Unfortunately, some people who sustain an infection in hospital don’t recover. In Australia, there are an estimated 7,500 deaths associated with hospital-acquired infections annually.

    It’s important to prevent such infections not only for the benefit of patients, but also because of their cost to the health system and to reduce antibiotic use.

    Even though patients don’t usually come into contact with each other directly in hospitals, there are many ways bacteria can be transmitted between patients.

    Our own and other research suggests medical equipment (such as blood pressure machines, dressing trolleys and drip stands) could be a common source of infection.

    In recent research, we’ve shown that by regularly disinfecting shared medical equipment, we can help reduce infections picked up in hospitals – and save the health system money.

    We introduced a new cleaning package

    We conducted an experiment in a New South Wales hospital where we introduced a package of extra cleaning measures onto several wards.

    The package consisted of designated cleaners specifically trained to clean and disinfect sensitive medical equipment. Normally, the cleaning of shared equipment is the responsibility of clinical staff.

    These cleaners spent three hours a day disinfecting shared medical equipment on the ward. We also provided regular training and feedback to the cleaners.

    The start date for the cleaning package on each ward was randomly selected. This is known as a “stepped wedge” trial (more on this later).

    We monitored the thoroughness of cleaning before and after introducing the cleaning package by applying a florescent gel marker to shared equipment. The gel cannot be seen without a special light, but is easily removed if the surface is cleaned well.

    We also monitored infections in patients on the wards before and after introducing the cleaning package. Over the course of the experiment, more than 5,000 patients passed through the wards we were studying.

    Finally, we looked at the economic costs and benefits: how much the cleaning package costs, versus the health-care costs that may be saved thanks to any avoided infections.

    Shared hospital equipment such as IV drip stands can harbour infections.
    Gorodenkoff/Shutterstock

    What we found

    Before the intervention, we found the thoroughness of cleaning shared equipment, assessed by the removal of the gel marker, was low. Once we introduced the cleaning package, cleaning thoroughness improved from 24% to 66%.

    After the cleaning package was introduced, hospital-acquired infections dropped by about one-third, from 14.9% to 9.8% of patients. We saw a reduction in a range of different types of infections including bloodstream infections, urinary tract infections and surgical wound infections.

    To put this another way, for every 1,000 patients admitted to wards with the cleaning package, we estimated there were 30 fewer infections compared to wards before the cleaning package was introduced. This not only benefits patients, but also hospitals and the community, by freeing up resources that can be used to treat other patients.

    Treating infections in hospital is expensive. We estimate the cost of treating infections before the cleaning intervention was around A$2.1 million for a group of 1,000 patients, arising from 130 infections. These costs come from extra time in hospital and treatment costs associated with infections.

    We estimated the 30 fewer infections per 1,000 patients reduced costs to $1.5 million, even when factoring in the cost of cleaners and cleaning products. Put differently, our intervention could save a hospital $642,000 for every 1,000 patients.

    Some limitations of our research

    Our experiment was limited to several wards at one Australian hospital. It’s possible the cleaning was particularly poor at this hospital, and the same intervention at other hospitals may not result in the same benefit.

    For various reasons, even with trained designated cleaners we didn’t find every piece of equipment was cleaned all the time. This reflects common real-world issues in a busy ward. For example, some equipment was being used and not available for cleaning and cleaners were sometimes absent due to illness.

    We don’t know whether even more cleaning might have resulted in an even greater reduction in infections, but there is often a law of diminishing returns when assessing infection control interventions.

    In the real world, hospital cleaning isn’t perfect. But we could do better.
    aguscrespophoto/Shutterstock

    A limitation of looking at infection rates before and after the introduction of an intervention is that other things may change at the same time, such as staffing levels, so not all the difference in infections may be due to the intervention.

    But the stepped wedge model, where the cleaning package was introduced at different times on different wards, increases our confidence the reduction in infections was the result of the cleaning package.

    Improving hospital cleaning is a no brainer

    Shared medical equipment harbours pathogens, which can survive for long periods in health-care settings.

    Like our study, other research has similarly suggested a clean hospital is a safe hospital. Importantly, cleaning needs to include thorough disinfection to reduce the risk of infection (not just removing visible dirt and stains).

    Our work is also consistent with other research that shows improving cleaning in hospitals is cost-effective.

    Cleaning services and products have often been subject to cuts when hospitals have needed to save money.

    But prioritising effective cleaning of medical equipment appears to be a no brainer for health system administrators. We need to invest in better cleaning practices for both the health of patients and the financial bottom line.

    Brett Mitchell receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Medical Research Future Fund. Brett is Editor-in-Chief of Infection, Disease and Health for which he is paid an honorarium by the Australasian College for Infection Prevention and Control. Brett has appointments at Avondale University, Monash University and the Hunter Medical Research Institute. GAMA Healthcare Australia provided cleaning wipes used in a study referenced in this article.

    Allen Cheng receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Australian Government. He is a member of the Infection Prevention and Control Advisory Committee advising the Australian Commission for Safety and Quality in Healthcare.

    – ref. Better cleaning of hospital equipment could cut patient infections by one-third – and save money – https://theconversation.com/better-cleaning-of-hospital-equipment-could-cut-patient-infections-by-one-third-and-save-money-251917

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A fair go for young Australians in this election? Voters are weighing up intergenerational inequity

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dan Woodman, TR Ashworth Professor in Sociology, The University of Melbourne

    Securing the welfare of future generations seems like solid grounds for judging policies and politicians, especially during an election campaign. Political legacies are on the line because the stakes are so high.

    There is a real possibility that today’s young people could become the first Australian generation to suffer lower living standards on some key measures than their parents. Unaffordable housing is the main flashpoint. But other challenges weigh heavily, including student debt, insecure work and climate change.

    No political leader would want to preside over a society that leaves younger generations worse off than those that preceded them. Yet that possibility should be on voters’ minds as they prepare to pass judgement at the ballot box on May 3.

    Young voters wield power

    In recent elections, young people have been largely overlooked. Yet, for the first time I can remember, all the major political parties have explicitly recognised that many young people are doing it tough.

    Political strategists would be mindful demographics are clearly shifting. This will be the first election where Gen Z and Millennials will outnumber Baby Boomers (and Gen X) at the ballot box.

    The good and the bad

    But intergenerational equality can be hard to pin down, as people disagree on what counts and how to count it. On many measures of living standards, young Australians are demonstrably better off than their parents.

    Many of the nice things in life, such as international travel and electronic gadgets, are much cheaper. The future may be uncertain, but unless we decide to live more sustainably as a society, today’s young people are still on track to consume more over the course of their lifetime than previous generations.

    However, the things that really matter, including housing and education, cost more than ever before. And that means crucial life transitions to secure and happy adult lives are taking longer and feel less certain.

    Our policy settings might be making this worse. Many experts argue the tax system is stacked against the young because it favours people who have already built up wealth and assets.

    Education is becoming more expensive, while converting educational credentials into employment outcomes is harder than it was. And getting together the deposit for a house is onerous, as costs increase faster than people can save.

    Policy pitch

    In this election, a swag of policy offerings to young voters has already been made.

    Labor is promising to cut student HECS debts and make housing more affordable. The Coalition will allow young home buyers to dip into their superannuation to purchase their first property, while the Greens want to cap rent increases.

    So, who is likely to win the young vote? In recent decades younger Australian voters have shifted towards the left. Unlike in some similar countries, this has also included young men, although at a slower pace than women.

    However, young voters are a diverse lot. United States President Donald Trump’s success at harvesting a greater share of the American youth vote, in part through tapping into cost-of-living concerns, suggests younger voters should not be taken for granted in Australia.

    What’s missing from the debate

    The elephant in the room in any conversation about inequality between the generations is the growing role intergenerational financial supports play in shaping young people’s lives. These transfers help reproduce, and even sharpen, economic inequalities between young people.

    As part of the Life Patterns Project, I have spent the past 20 years with colleagues tracking young people as they transition from secondary school to early adulthood.

    One of our recent findings is that parents are increasingly supporting their young adult children through crucial life events. This includes helping with bills, rent, and often a deposit for a house.

    And this has consequences for inequality over time. The ability to fall back on family resources is playing an even greater role in determining how easily a young person will navigate school and university, land a decent job and buy into the housing market.

    This is in turn increases the pressure on parents to continue supporting their children well into their adult years. The financial squeeze is being felt particularly sharply by those who can’t really afford to help, at least without changing their own plans for the future, including their retirement.

    No appetite for real reform

    So these intergenerational challenges are not just affecting young people. They also have an impact on parents, some of whom are risking their own financial security to help their adult children. They also risk making Australia a less equal society.

    Recently, Anglicare advocated an inheritance tax to reduce the role intergenerational transfers play in shaping unequal outcomes for future generations.

    But the major political parties are in no hurry to embrace such a measure. Nor any other significant reforms to the tax treatment of housing to try and improve affordability.

    Nevertheless, at this election, younger generations are on the agenda in a new way. Politicians will ignore them at their peril.

    This is the fifth article in our special series, Australia’s Policy Challenges. You care read the other articles here

    Dan Woodman receives funding from the Australian Research Council

    – ref. A fair go for young Australians in this election? Voters are weighing up intergenerational inequity – https://theconversation.com/a-fair-go-for-young-australians-in-this-election-voters-are-weighing-up-intergenerational-inequity-250782

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why are so many second-generation South Asian and Chinese Canadians planning to vote Conservative?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Emine Fidan Elcioglu, Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Toronto

    After months of political decline, the Liberal Party of Canada is showing signs of recovery, buoyed, some suggest, by a surge of national pride in the face of Donald Trump’s tariff war and threats to Canadian sovereignty.

    But this apparent rebound obscures a more surprising political shift: the growing appeal of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) among immigrants and their children.

    Traditionally, immigrant and visible minority communities have supported the centrist Liberal Party. In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), where over half of all residents identify as “visible minority” (the category used by stats can), Chinese and South Asian Canadians have long formed a key part of the Liberal base.

    Yet recent polling tells a different story. An October 2024 survey found that 45 per cent of immigrants had changed their political allegiances since arriving in Canada, with many now leaning Conservative.

    Meanwhile, another national survey from January 2025 found that a majority of East Asian (55 per cent) and South Asian (56 per cent) respondents expressed support for the Conservative Party, far outpacing support for the Liberals or the NDP.

    Nationally, racialized citizens now make up over 26 per cent of Canada’s population, with South Asians and Chinese Canadians the two largest groups.

    While detailed racial breakdowns remain rare in Canadian polling, the few available data points suggest a meaningful shift. This pattern also reflects a broader trend: South Asian and Chinese Canadians in the GTA are increasingly politically active, with rising turnout and growing partisan diversification.

    Ramping up outreach

    The Conservative Party, for its part, has taken notice. Under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, the CPC has actively recruited racialized candidates and ramped up outreach in suburban swing ridings — particularly through ethnic media advertising and messaging focused on economic self-reliance and family values.

    This rightward shift among racialized voters may seem counter-intuitive. The Conservative Party has historically represented white, affluent voters, and under Stephen Harper (who led from 2006 to 2015), implemented policies that curtailed immigration, tightened citizenship rules and cut social programs in ways that disproportionately harmed racialized communities.

    Why, then, would racialized Canadians increasingly turn to the right?

    In a study I recently published, I interviewed 50 Canadian-born children of South Asian, Chinese and white immigrants living in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). I argue that this shift is not a contradiction but provides a window into how racialized groups navigate inequality, exclusion and the search for belonging.

    While there are many reasons 2nd-generation racialized Canadians may support the Conservative Party, this study highlights one under-documented explanation. Voting for a right-wing party that represents the interests of white, wealthy citizens can be a way for second-generation South Asian and Chinese Canadians to seek acceptance when power is linked to whiteness..



    Read more:
    Why are brown and Black people supporting the far right?

    The hidden costs of fitting in

    In other words, many of these racialized Canadians don’t vote Conservative because they’re unaware of inequality. They vote Conservative because they’re trying to navigate it.

    Growing up in precariously middle-class households, the young adults I interviewed watched their immigrant parents face deskilling and downward mobility despite arriving in Canada with professional credentials.

    They saw their families pressured to “Canadianize” their names and accents, only to be sidelined by employers who still favoured whiteness.

    And they were raised in a society where multiculturalism celebrates cultural symbols but often ignores structural racism.

    In this context, support for the Conservatives reflects not ignorance of marginalization, but a way to move through it. Aligning with the right becomes a signal of belonging.

    As one young South Asian Canadian man put it:

    “You’ve arrived. You’re a Canadian. So, start voting like one.”

    This desire to belong doesn’t emerge in a vacuum. It’s shaped by racial scripts that reward conformity and penalize dissent — most notably, the model minority stereotype.



    Read more:
    Searching for anti-racism agendas in South Asian Canadian communities

    The price of acceptance

    The model minority stereotype casts Asian Canadians as hardworking and quietly successful. On the surface, it sounds like praise. But in practice, it hides inequality and demands silence in exchange for conditional belonging.



    Read more:
    Model minority blues: The mental health consequences of being a model citizen — Don’t Call Me Resilient EP 9

    That acceptance is fragile. After Sept. 11, 2001, many South Asians, particularly those perceived as Muslim, were quickly recast as dangerous outsiders.

    A similar dynamic resurfaced during the COVID-19 pandemic, when Asian Canadians faced a sharp rise in racial harassment. In both cases, those once celebrated as “model” citizens were suddenly treated as threats.



    Read more:
    The model minority myth hides the racist and sexist violence experienced by Asian women

    In some contexts, political restraint, like staying quiet or avoiding protest, can function as a survival strategy. But that’s not what I observed in this study.

    The second-generation Canadians I interviewed were not politically quiet. They were vocal in their support for the Conservative Party. For them, voting Conservative was a way to assert they already belonged, not by asking for inclusion, but by showing they did not need to. Conservatism became a marker of success, self-reliance and alignment with those at the centre of Canadian life.

    Canada’s official embrace of multiculturalism reinforces this logic. While often praised as a national strength, multiculturalism can obscure how racism really works. Structural barriers are hidden behind feel-good narratives of inclusion.

    Rethinking belonging

    In Canada, ideas about who belongs are often shaped by race, class and respectability. Racialized people must not only prove they are hardworking and law-abiding, but also demonstrate that they’ve “fit in.” For some, voting Conservative becomes a way to show they’ve done just that — a way of saying: “I’m not like them. I’m one of you.”

    But this strategy comes at a cost. In reinforcing the very structures that marginalize them, racialized voters may gain individual recognition while deepening collective exclusion. And in rejecting equity-based platforms, they may forgo the policies that could build a more just society.

    This dynamic isn’t limited to the second generation. A recent CBC survey found that four in five newcomers believe Canada has accepted too many immigrants and international students without proper planning.

    Some immigrants are increasingly expressing exclusionary views, often toward those who arrived more recently. This, too, is a form of aspirational politics. And it shows just how deeply race, precarity and belonging are entangled in Canada today.

    None of this means that racialized Conservative voters are naïve. Their decisions often reflect a clear-eyed understanding of how power works.

    But if we want a fairer political future, we must reckon with the ways race, class and nationalism shape belonging — not just at the ballot box, but in the stories we tell about who gets to be “Canadian.”

    As sociologist Ruha Benjamin reminds us, inclusion shouldn’t be treated as an act of generosity. It’s not about “helping” the marginalized — it’s about understanding that we’re all connected. When fear shapes policy and public goods are stripped away, everyone suffers.

    Emine Fidan Elcioglu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why are so many second-generation South Asian and Chinese Canadians planning to vote Conservative? – https://theconversation.com/why-are-so-many-second-generation-south-asian-and-chinese-canadians-planning-to-vote-conservative-253820

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canadian retailers are seeing a surge in domestic sales amid the ‘Buy Canadian’ movement

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Melise Panetta, Lecturer of Marketing in the Lazaridis School of Business and Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University

    In recent months, the “Buy Canadian” movement has gained significant momentum, driven by a collective push to support domestic products and services, strengthen local businesses and reduce reliance on foreign imports.

    Escalating trade tensions and tariff disputes with the United States and threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to annex Canada have played a pivotal role in fuelling this shift toward economic nationalism.

    Though still in its early stages, the movement has already gained strong support from Canadians, with both consumers and businesses prioritizing homegrown products to strengthen the local economy.

    Early results are promising

    The “Buy Canadian” movement is already delivering promising results across the retail sector. Major retailers such as Loblaws Companies have reported a 10 per cent increase in sales of Canadian-made products. Sobey’s parent company Empire also noted a decline in sales of U.S.-sourced goods.

    Importantly, the shift isn’t limited to big retailers or headline product categories. Smaller retailers and established brands are also seeing tangible benefits.

    Ice cream producer Chapman’s, long known for its strong Canadian brand identity, has seen a 10 per cent increase in sales. E-commerce platform giant Shopify has reported a spike in sales for Canadian merchants across a long list of categories including mattresses, row boats, ribbons, armchairs and more.

    Some provinces have pulled U.S. alcohol from store shelves to prioritize selling homegrown options, putting Canadian wineries, breweries and distillers in a position to grow substantially.

    Though more data will emerge in the months ahead, early indications show that Canadians are backing the “Buy Canadian” movement not just in spirit, but with their wallets.

    Helping Canadians choose Canadian

    One of the most noticeable effects of the “Buy Canadian” campaign has been a nationwide effort to make it easier for consumers to identify Canadian-made products.

    Demand for clear labelling has surged, prompting the Canadian Food Inspection Agency to issue a notice to industry urging producers to improve transparency.

    Consumers are becoming increasingly proactive in educating themselves, with searches for “Buy Canadian” related terms skyrocketing in the past few months. Websites such as Madeinca.ca have seen a large uptick in traffic, peaking at 100,000 visits in a single day.

    Retailers have been offering more in-store and online signage highlighting Canadian products. Loblaws has introduced a “Swap & Shop” tool in its Optimum app that helps users find Canadian-made alternatives for items on their shopping list. It has seen a 75 per cent week-over-week growth.

    Home improvement retailer RONA has launched the “Well Made Here” campaign that provides staff training and partners with non-profits to educate consumers about Canadian-made alternatives.

    Celebrity endorsements have also amplified the movement. Actor and comedian Mike Myers showcased the colloquial expression “elbows up” on Saturday Night Live, while Michael Bublé used his platform at the Juno Awards to deliver the message that “Canada is not for sale.”

    #TheMoment ‘Elbows Up’ became a rally cry against Trump (CBC News).

    Pushing the movement forward

    Consumers have been turning to social media to further propel the Buy Canadian movement. Hashtags like #ShopLocalCanada and #MadeInCanada have gained significant traction, with nearly three million posts across major social media channels Facebook and Instagram.

    A newly launched web browser plug-in called Support Canadian is also gaining attention. It works by bringing Canadian products to the top of search results on retailers such as Amazon. In its first week, it attracted 500 users. Although these numbers may appear small, early analytics suggest it could keep over a million dollars inside the Canadian economy.

    Mobile apps designed to help consumers determine the origin of their purchases are gaining popularity. The BuyBeaver app, which crowd-sources product origins, reached 100,000 downloads in just five weeks.

    Meanwhile, OScanAda, which uses AI and barcode scanning to provide detailed insights into Canadian ownership and sourcing, has been downloaded 160,000 times. MapleScan, which currently is ranked second in the shopping category on the Apple App Store, uses AI to scan products and suggest Canadian alternatives.

    Brands are leveraging their Canadian roots

    In response to growing national sentiment, a number of Canadian brands are using marketing strategies to underscore their national identity for consumers.

    Kicking Horse Coffee, for example, has humorously rebranded the Americano as the “Canadiano” in a nod to Canadian pride. Black Diamond recently launched a campaign with the cheeky tagline “Made with 0% American Cheese.”

    Meanwhile, Moosehead Brewery has launched a limited-edition “Presidential Pack” containing 1,961 beers — one for each day of the U.S. presidential term.

    Other companies have modified existing campaigns to better align with the movement. Sobeys recently debuted a new “So Canadian” campaign, a new iteration of its long-running “So.be.it.” campaign.

    Healthy Planet has expanded its #Healthyplanetswap campaign to include #HealthyCanadianSwap, which focuses on providing domestically sourced options.

    Whether through packaging that clearly marks country of origin or marketing campaigns that play on national pride, Canadian brands are leveraging their national identity to resonate with consumers.

    A smart choice in uncertain times

    The early momentum behind the Buy Canadian movement is promising. While Canada was largely spared from Trump’s most recent tariffs under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, the unpredictability of U.S. trade policy and broader global tensions make it more important than ever to build long-term economic resilience at home.

    The early days of the movement show a strong desire among Canadians to support local industries, protect jobs and reinforce national self-sufficiency. Even as higher costs and global disruptions remain real challenges, buying Canadian serves as both a practical and symbolic choice, one that reduces dependency on volatile foreign markets and strengthens the domestic economy.

    This is a pivotal moment. The foundations of the movement are in place, and its early success is encouraging. For the “Buy Canadian” effort to have lasting impact, it needs sustained commitment from consumers, businesses and policymakers alike.

    By continuing to prioritize homegrown goods and services, Canadians can help shield their economy from future shocks and chart a more independent, stable path forward.

    Melise Panetta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Canadian retailers are seeing a surge in domestic sales amid the ‘Buy Canadian’ movement – https://theconversation.com/canadian-retailers-are-seeing-a-surge-in-domestic-sales-amid-the-buy-canadian-movement-253502

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –