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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Facing annexation threats, should Canadians lament for a nation — like George Grant did in 1963?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By David Edward Tabachnick, Professor of Political Science, Nipissing University

    A decades-old lament for Canada is back on some Canadians’ minds as United States President Donald Trump makes repeated annexation threats.

    Canadian political philosopher George Grant’s Lament for a Nation was published in 1965 — the same year Canada’s iconic Maple Leaf flag was first unfurled on the Peace Tower on Parliament Hill — and unexpectedly inspired many Canadians to feel a sudden sense of pride and confidence that their country could and must stand up to its giant imperialistic neighbour to the south.

    Sixty years later, there are calls to “Bring Back Grumpy George” and renew his decades-old warning. There are also attempts to understand Grant’s continued relevance in the 21st century, as well as new volumes on his work.

    Canadian nationalist movement of 70s

    On the face of it, Grant’s slim volume may seem the perfect tonic for what ails Canada today. Consider that William Christian, Grant’s biographer, called its publication “one of the most significant factors in creating the Canadian nationalist movement of the 1970s” while esteemed journalist Charles P.B. Taylor dubbed it “a Bible for younger nationalists.”

    It “is the sun under which a generation of Canadian nationalists warm themselves,” Andrew Potter writes in his introduction to the 40th anniversary edition of Grant’s most famous work, “but it also casts the long dark shadows in which they must operate.”

    One need only wade a little into the volume to see those “the long dark shadows.” The subtitle to Grant’s book says it all: The Defeat of Canadian Nationalism. So, far from being a call to arms, Lament for a Nation was, as Grant put it, a “cry out at the death or at the dying of something loved…[to mourn] the end of Canada as a sovereign state.”

    In other words, Lament was never intended to whip Canadians into a nationalist fervour, but to spell out Canada’s unfortunate and inevitable disappearance as a nation.

    ‘Blending into the (U.S.) empire’

    By this logic, the next six decades of failed strategies to diversify the Canadian economy and stillborn plans to grow its military are symptoms of a disease that had already killed the patient; Canada is the zombie nation, an apparently democratic electoral system without real substance. Grant wrote:

    “Canada has ceased to be a nation, but its formal political existence will not end quickly. Our social and economic blending into the empire will continue apace, but political union will probably be delayed. Some international catastrophe or great shift of power might speed up this process.”

    For Grant, Canada’s original death knell was acquiescence to American demands that it accept their nuclear weapons on its soil. While Canada had both the technical ability and practical capacity to build its own bombs after the Second World War, leaders decided against it.

    Jack Mackenzie, first president of Atomic Energy Control Board, explained in a 1953 address: “Canada is the only country in the world with sizeable atomic energy establishments where no bombs are being made, and where all the thinking and planning is focused on peacetime aspects.”

    But in the context of the Cold War, this principled choice was viewed as a sign of weakness by Americans, who worried about Soviet bombers travelling unrestricted over the Arctic.

    Defence crisis

    This worry led to the so-called defence crisis that dominated the federal 1963 election campaign, fought between Conservative Prime Minister Diefenbaker and Liberal Lester B. Pearson.

    A beleaguered Diefenbaker had cancelled the vaunted Avro Arrow program a few years earlier, hesitated to commit the Navy to participate in the blockade of Cuba and then balked at accepting American warheads for the BOMARC interceptor missiles designed to stop those bombers.

    The pugnacious Pearson was once a champion of non-proliferation and had shocked his supporters during his infamous Scarborough speech when he announced his surprising agreement that U.S. nukes had to be deployed on Canadian soil in the name of our “commitments for Canada in continental and collective defence,” including NORAD and NATO.

    For Grant, Diefenbaker’s defeat to Pearson was a stake through the heart of the Canada from which it would never recover. In 1963, the Royal Canadian Air Force delivered a shipment of nuclear warheads to the BOMARC missile site near RCAF Station North Bay, Ont., just up the road from where I write today.

    End of Canadian nationalism?

    A few years before his passing in 1988, Grant made it clear in a 1985 interview with Lawrence (Larry) Schmidt, a theologian and a scholar of Grant’s work, that “people have read a little book I wrote called Lament for a Nation wrongly. I was talking about the end of Canadian nationalism. I was saying that this is over and people read it as if I was making an appeal for Canadian nationalism. I think that is just nonsense. I think they just read it wrongly.”

    Today, Canadian economic well-being and security are no more in Canada’s control then they were in 1965. Trump is merely saying the quiet part out loud in his craven desire to make Canada the 51st state.

    Was Grant wrong?

    But, as it turns out, Grant was wrong. Canada is not the zombie nation. It may have been in a bit of daze for the last while, but Canadians have their elbows up again.



    Read more:
    Why Gordie Howe’s elbows are Canada’s answer to Donald Trump

    Now out of a stupor, Canadians are reviewing the wisdom of purchasing F-35s, buying new radar systems to assert our sovereignty over the Arctic and attempting to drop interprovincial trade barriers.

    Mind you, this is nothing new. In the face of American disapproval, Canada trades with Cuba, claims the Northwest Passage as its internal waters and negotiated a successful Acid Rain Treaty. Canada led the charge to ban the use of land mines and refused to participate in the American missile shield plan.

    Canada didn’t send its young men to die in the jungles of Vietnam and refused to participate in the ill-conceived Iraq War. And it still protects its fresh water and health care.

    New policy for common cause

    Still, rather than merely reacting to American insults and pressures, Canada is long overdue to develop contemporary and responsive policy, the very thing Grant thought would allow Canada to become and stay a sovereign country, at least for a while.

    As writer and historical researcher Mark Wegierski notes, this could unite conservatives and progressives in common cause.

    While Canadians may be divided at times, they need to use this moment of unity to make sure Canada stays alive and kicking.

    David Edward Tabachnick does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Facing annexation threats, should Canadians lament for a nation — like George Grant did in 1963? – https://theconversation.com/facing-annexation-threats-should-canadians-lament-for-a-nation-like-george-grant-did-in-1963-252337

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 1.5 million-year-old bone tools discovered in Tanzania rewrite the history of human evolution

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Jackson K Njau, Associate professor, Indiana University

    The ancestors of humans started making tools about 3.3 million years ago. First they made them out of stone, then they switched to bone as a raw material. Until recently, the earliest clear evidence of bone tool making was from sites in Europe, dated to 400,000 years ago. But archaeologists have now found and dated bone tools in Tanzania that are a million years older.

    The tools are made from the bones of large animals like hippos and elephants, and have been deliberately shaped to make them useful for butchering large carcasses.

    The discovery of bone implements that are the oldest ever found, by far, casts light on human evolution. It shows that our hominin ancestors were able to think about and make this technology a lot earlier than anyone realised.

    I am a scientist who co-directs a multidisciplinary research project team at the Olduvai Gorge in Tanzania, focusing on hominin evolution. Our project’s main goal has been to investigate the changes in hominin technology and behaviour that happened between 1.66 million and 1.4 million years ago.

    We’re interested in this time period because it marks a pivotal change in human technology, from the rudimentary stone knives and cores of the Oldowan culture to the more advanced crafted stone handaxes of the Acheulean culture.

    We found the Olduvai bone tools in 2018 and recently described them in the journal Nature. They show that by 1.5 million years ago, our ancestors (Homo erectus) had already developed the cognitive abilities required to transfer skills from making stone tools to making bone tools.

    This leap in human history was a game-changer because it allowed early hominins to overcome survival challenges in landscapes where suitable stone materials were scarce.

    Tools at Olduvai

    Olduvai Gorge is a Unesco World Heritage site. It became well known in 1959 through the pioneering work of palaeontologists Louis and Mary Leakey, whose discoveries of early human remains reshaped our understanding of human evolution. The site offers an unparalleled window into human history, spanning nearly 2 million years.



    Read more:
    Finds in Tanzania’s Olduvai Gorge reveal how ancient humans adapted to change

    Aside from fossilised bones, it has yielded the most detailed record of stone tool cultures in the world. It has documented the evolution from the simple chopping tools and stone knives of the Oldowan industry (about 2 million years ago) to the more advanced Acheulean tools (1.7 million years ago), such as handaxes, cleavers, picks and spheroids and then on – through arrowheads, points and blades (about 200,000 years ago) to the micro-blades of the Later Stone Age (about 17,000 years ago).

    All these tools provide a glimpse into the ingenuity and cultural advancements of our early ancestors.

    And now the picture has new detail.

    Our team uncovered 27 ancient bone tools during excavations at the T69 Complex, FLK West site at Olduvai. We know how old they are because we found them securely embedded underground where they had been left 1.5 million years ago, along with thousands of stone artefacts and fossilised bones. We dated them using geochronological techniques.

    Unlike stone, bone shafts crack and break in a way that allows the systematic production of elongated, well-shaped artifacts. Flaking them by hitting them with another object – a process called knapping – results in pointed tools that would be ideal for butchering, chopping and other tasks.

    The knapped tools we found were made from large shaft fragments that came from the limb bones of elephants and hippos, and were found at hippo butchery sites. Hominins likely brought elephant bones to the site on a regular basis, and obtained limb bones from butchered hippos at the site itself.

    What Homo erectus knew

    The find shows that 1.5 million years ago, Homo erectus could apply knapping skills to bone. Homo erectus, regarded as the evolutionary successor to the smaller-brained Homo habilis, left a lasting imprint on history. Its fossils, found at Olduvai, offer a glimpse into a span of about a million years, stretching from 1.5 million to roughly 500,000 years ago.

    Now we know that these hominins not only understood the physical properties of bones but also knew about skeletal anatomy. They could identify and select bones suitable for flaking. And they knew which animals had skeletons large enough to craft reliable tools after the animals’ death.



    Read more:
    Large mammals shaped the evolution of humans: here’s why it happened in Africa

    We don’t know exactly why they chose bones as a raw material. It may have been that suitable stone material was scarce, or they recognised that bones provided a better grip and were more durable.

    Why haven’t such old bone tools been found before? The answer is likely that they are destroyed by weathering, abrasion from water transport, trampling and scavenger activity. Organic materials don’t always get time to fossilise. Also, analysts were not used to looking for bone tools among fossils.

    This discovery will likely encourage researchers to pay closer attention to the subtle signs of bone knapping in fossil assemblages. This way we will learn more about the evolution of human technology and behaviour.

    Jackson K Njau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 1.5 million-year-old bone tools discovered in Tanzania rewrite the history of human evolution – https://theconversation.com/1-5-million-year-old-bone-tools-discovered-in-tanzania-rewrite-the-history-of-human-evolution-251826

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Nigerian journalists are harassed by the public, the state and paid ‘data boys’ – what must change

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Temple Uwalaka, Lecturer in Communication and Media Studies, University of Canberra

    Death threats, kidnapping, unlawful detention, torture and assassination are some of the crimes being committed against journalists in Nigeria, according to a recent report. Another recent report details how the police and politicians are responsible for 70% of these harassment cases.

    They point to the increased level of threats that Nigerian journalists endure in their fourth estate role, serving as the voice of the people and holding government to account.

    This isn’t new. The harassment of journalists is baked into Nigerian history. But today journalists are also attracting online threats and harassment from members of the public.

    I teach and research media and politics, with a focus on online journalism in Nigeria. What’s clear is that the digital age has brought with it a complex relationship not just between journalists and the state, but also with citizens.

    All these parties need to turn down the heat, in the interests of free and fair information, particularly in a young democracy like Nigeria.

    A long history of violence

    The history of Nigerian journalism is characterised by violence from British colonial powers, from 1859 when the first newspaper was established, and also from indigenous politicians. There’s always been a suspicion that a free press could empower ordinary citizens and cause a shift in the power base.

    This isn’t unfounded. Journalism contributed to ending colonialism. But, after independence in 1960, the political class feared that an unfettered press would be difficult to control. Particularly when the country came under oppressive military rule from 1966 to 1999.

    There was always a fair amount of goodwill towards the press from citizens. But the ownership and control of major media houses by prominent Nigerian politicians, alongside the rise of social media, has changed the picture.

    The public used to act as the buffer for journalists, defending them from the attacks of government officials. Now some Nigerians have joined in attacking and harassing journalists in Nigeria.

    Online harassment

    We know that journalists in Nigeria under-report the harassment they receive. Many don’t view acute forms of harassment – verbal abuse, online disrespect and maltreatment – as an issue. One of our studies found they regard this as mere online banter, verbal sparring and attention seeking. But dismissing harassment doesn’t make it go away or stop. It just makes it worse in frequency and form.



    Read more:
    Threats to press freedom are taking on different forms across Africa

    Our studies indicate that online harassment of journalists is prevalent and escalating. This type of harassment is usually sustained and it often moves from one social media platform to another.

    In some cases, it spills from online to offline. The burning of the Television Continental station in Lagos in 2020 is just one example. The harassment is usually personal. Threats to the lives and safety of journalists are becoming common.

    Data Boys and corruption

    Nigerian journalists have reported that the harassers particularly target investigative and political reports, as well as perceived unethical conduct by journalists.

    The result is that political reporting is becoming difficult. A critical report about a politician makes the journalist an enemy of the politician. The politician will then unleash their supporters and paid influencers (known as “Data Boys”) to harass and hassle the journalist.

    The Data Boys phenomenon as we know it today began during Nigeria’s 2015 general elections. Data Boys are groups of young people on a politician’s payroll. They help to promote the politician’s image online and generally do their bidding. The politician sends them money to buy internet data and shares promotional “news” about themself. The Data Boys are also paid to attack any perceived enemy of the politician.

    It’s an increasingly successful political tactic in Nigeria. As a result, journalists have started censoring themselves.

    Data Boys aside, we asked ordinary Nigerians who reported engaging in online harassment why they picked on journalists. They indicated that perceived journalistic malpractice was their main reason. They accused journalists of being part of the problem because they believed many were corrupt and in the pay of politicians. Adding fuel to the fire is that Nigerian politicians are also often media owners.

    Some solutions

    One of the reasons that a culture of harassment continues is the failure of law enforcement. Those who harass journalists are not made to account for their actions. Strengthening harassment laws in Nigeria would give law enforcement the tools needed to curb it.

    There are no explicit laws around online harassment in Nigeria, just sexual and physical assault laws. This has to change if journalists are to be protected. All respondents in our studies, both journalists and the public, highlighted the law as a cardinal factor to fight harassment.

    Another solution is that journalists need to be accountable, transparent and ethical. Journalists themselves have raised these concerns about their profession.

    Yet in our studies journalists did not highlight transparency or an improved code of conduct as ways to improve the harassment situation in Nigeria.



    Read more:
    Western media outlets are trying to fix their racist, stereotypical coverage of Africa. Is it time African media did the same?

    Their detachment can come off as arrogant and has the potential to worsen hostility towards them. All the suggested solutions to online harassment made by journalists in our studies were external to them, like media sensitisation campaigns, improved workplace security and proper punishment for offenders. Their attitudes, we found, could be misconstrued as lacking self-reflection or empathy.

    Journalists, their harassers and politicians will all need to make changes or be brought to book if the problem is to be solved. Until then, online harassment is harming journalism as a profession in Nigeria. And this has the potential to have a negative impact on democracy.

    Temple Uwalaka does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Nigerian journalists are harassed by the public, the state and paid ‘data boys’ – what must change – https://theconversation.com/nigerian-journalists-are-harassed-by-the-public-the-state-and-paid-data-boys-what-must-change-252100

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Diabetic foot pain: expert tips on how to cope

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Peter Kamerman, Professor, University of the Witwatersrand

    An estimated 1 in 10 people worldwide have diabetes. Africa is the region with the fastest growth and it’s estimated that the number of people on the continent with diabetes will more than double in the next 20 years, increasing to about 55 million people by 2045.

    Having diabetes has serious consequences for health and is associated with increased risk of developing diseases related to damage to the heart (heart attacks), blood vessels (strokes, foot ulcers), kidneys (chronic kidney failure), and the nervous system (blindness, loss of sensation).

    When it comes to nerve damage, it typically affects long nerve fibres that supply the feet and can sometimes affect fibres that supply the hands too (a so-called glove and stocking distribution).

    It is the nerve fibres that detect sensations such as touch and temperature that are often worst affected, resulting in numbness. The numbness that develops can be a nightmare for people and is often described as their “feet feeling dead”.

    A peculiarity of this numbness is that it may be accompanied by intractable pain. This type of pain, resulting from damage to sensory nerve fibres, is called neuropathic pain.

    As scientists in the field of pain and pain management we work on neuropathic pain in people living with diabetes and its management. In this article we aim to draw attention to the problem and discuss how it can be managed.

    Nerve damage

    It has been estimated that up to 50% of people with diabetes will develop damage to peripheral nerves during their lifetime, and up to 50% will experience pain because of that nerve damage.

    The predictors of developing nerve damage are well established. Older age, increased duration of diabetes, and poor control of blood glucose concentration are the main culprits. What determines whether the nerve damage is associated with pain is largely unknown.

    Neuropathic pain is often described as a “burning” pain, and is frequently
    accompanied by other sensations such as “pins and needles”, and pain that feels like stabbing, shooting, electric-like shocks, and deep aching.

    In some people there is very little or no numbness. In these people pain can often be triggered by gentle touch and movement across the skin (for example, bed sheets brushing across a foot, putting on socks), and cool and warm temperatures that are not normally felt as painful.

    Sometimes my feet will hurt really badly and I can’t get up and can hardly walk. – Anonymous patient

    Having such intractable pain has devastating consequences for quality of life.

    Pain sufferers have less social interaction with family and friends, and find it much more difficult to enjoy their favourite activities. Sleep is significantly disrupted.

    Having neuropathic pain is associated with high rates of anxiety and depression. To make matters worse, the sleep disruption, anxiety and depression may feed back into a vicious cycle to worsen and maintain the pain.

    There are days when I’d really like to go somewhere or do something and just
    don’t go. I know it will hurt. There’s no point in doing it. – Anonymous patient

    Medications to manage the pain

    Neuropathic pain is not responsive to the medications used to treat conditions such as headaches and joint pains (for example, paracetamol and ibuprofen).

    Instead, neuropathic pain is responsive to medications that in some cases are also used to treat conditions such as depression and epilepsy.

    Examples include:

    • low doses of tricyclic antidepressants (for example, amitriptyline)

    • a class of antidepressants called serotonin and noradrenaline re-uptake inhibitors (for example, duloxetine)

    • anti-seizure drugs like gabapentinoids (for example, gabapentin and pregabalin).

    However, there is very little information to guide doctors to predict which drug will work best for a patient.

    So, often finding the correct treatment is a trial-and-error approach, which can be frustrating for both patients and doctors.

    Coping mechanisms

    Chronic pain management is also about teaching people to cope with their pain so that they get back to enjoying their lives and are no longer consumed by the pain.

    Such interventions include the practice of mindfulness, cognitive behavioural therapy, and other self-management activities specifically designed for people with chronic pain.

    With the rapidly growing number of individuals with diabetes, it is more important than ever that we detect and treat the pain caused by nerve fibre damage.

    Public education and increased awareness of this painful consequence of diabetes will hopefully encourage affected people to seek early medical attention, thus allowing management of the condition, maintaining well-being and restoring function.

    Peter Kamerman receives funding from the National Research Foundation of South Africa. He is the sole proprietor of Blueprint Analytics, and consults for Partners in Research.

    Andreas C Themistocleous receives funding from UK Medical Research Council.

    – ref. Diabetic foot pain: expert tips on how to cope – https://theconversation.com/diabetic-foot-pain-expert-tips-on-how-to-cope-251937

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How political leaders communicate climate policy should be a defining factor this election

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Andrew Heffernan, Climate Associate at the Information Integrity Lab and Adjunct Professor in Political Studies, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa

    Prime Minister Mark Carney has called an April 28 federal election, setting the stage for a campaign where climate policy could be a central issue.

    The current iteration of Canada’s consumer carbon rebate is dead — which many view as a casualty of effective communication — yet climate policy remains a pressing topic for voters and a major battleground for political leaders.



    Read more:
    The Canada Carbon Rebate is still widely misunderstood — here’s why

    As Canada grapples with intensifying climate-related challenges, the next government will not only need to implement evidence-based policies to meet international climate commitments, but also effectively communicate its vision to voters.

    The public remains concerned about environmental issues, yet many are worried that bold climate policies have damaged the economy. This tension between environmental responsibility and economic growth will shape how each party formulates and communicates their climate policies in the upcoming campaign.

    The Liberals: Navigating the middle ground

    For Carney and the Liberal Party, the challenge is twofold. First, the Liberals must present a new climate plan after the collapse of the consumer carbon rebate, which has faced widespread public opposition in recent years.

    While the new Liberal leader has already terminated the the carbon rebate, it still remains unclear what exactly his comprehensive climate plan will look like. Carney’s website states that his strategy will: “Provide incentives for consumers. Put more of the burden on big polluters. And help us build the strongest economy in the G7.”



    Read more:
    Big government, big trouble? Defending the future of Canada’s climate policy

    This suggests his climate policy will hinge more on positive incentives for consumers to invest in sustainable approaches rather than putting a cost on polluting.

    While the carbon rebate initially enjoyed broad support as a key tool for reducing emissions, it has become a lightning rod for political controversy.

    Climate change is no longer just an environmental issue; it’s increasingly seen as a matter of economic survival, with green energy jobs and clean technologies representing an opportunity for Canada to position itself as a global leader in the sector.

    Carney will have to make a convincing case that his policy will create jobs, stimulate innovation and provide a clear path toward a greener, more sustainable economy.

    Failing to do so could lead to the loss of centrist and moderate voters, some of whom are wary of the perceived economic risks of aggressive climate action.

    The Conservatives: Axing the rebate isn’t enough

    On the opposite end of the political spectrum, federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has made axing the carbon rebate a central part of his platform.

    Framing the carbon rebate as an economic penalty, Poilievre has played into populist sentiments by promising to “axe the tax” and relieve financial pressures on Canadian families and businesses.

    However, even if the Conservatives are successful in eliminating the carbon rebate, they still face the challenge of needing a comprehensive climate policy that lowers emissions and meets Canada’s Paris Agreement targets. Poilievre has said he would not withdraw Canada from the accord, but he hasn’t addressed how he would meet Canada’s commitments.

    Poilievre’s populist rhetoric may resonate with voters who feel economically squeezed, but it’s unlikely to be enough to win over voters concerned about the climate crisis — especially as he has voted against environmental and climate action in Parliament over 400 times in his career, a point his opponents will be sure to raise repeatedly.

    For the Conservatives, the real challenge will be how to present a climate policy that appeals to both economic conservatives, who prioritize fiscal responsibility, and environmental conservatives, who are concerned about the future of the planet.

    Poilievre will need to clearly articulate how his policies will preserve Canada’s environmental future without stifling economic growth or inflating costs for the average Canadian.

    NDP and Green Party

    A key piece of the future of climate policy in Canada will be the NDP and Green Party, who are generally considered left-of-centre parties alongside the governing Liberals.

    The NDP, which can siphon progressive votes away from the Liberals — which sometimes benefits Conservatives — have been clear as mud when it comes to their climate policy for the next election.

    NDP leader Jagmeet Singh rescinded his party’s long-standing support for the Liberal carbon rebate in April 2024, but has not yet said what his party would put in its place.

    Meanwhile, the Green Party, which has historically played a less significant role in electoral outcomes in terms of vote splitting, has generally maintained its support for the carbon rebate. Its website suggests the party supports the polluter-pays principle. However, the Greens have yet to take a clear stance on the shifting climate grounds on which this election could partially be fought.

    Political communication the key to success

    In the coming years, the future of climate policy in Canada will be less about crafting the perfect policy and more about crafting a message that addresses how people are feeling.

    The Liberal Party has been open about the demise of the carbon rebate being a combination of a lack of their own effective communication strategy, mixed with harmful disinformation campaigns that led to the demise of their signature climate policy.

    For the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Greens alike, the road to effective climate policy will lie in this communication. Political leaders will need to balance ambition and pragmatism, ensuring their policies align with Canadians’ economic interests.

    With 71 per cent of Canadians suggesting they want the next government to do more to address climate change, leaders who can articulate a vision for a sustainable, prosperous future while addressing the immediate concerns of Canadians will be the ones who have the best chance of winning the public’s trust — and the next election.

    Andrew Heffernan is affiliated with the Liberal Party of Canada.

    – ref. How political leaders communicate climate policy should be a defining factor this election – https://theconversation.com/how-political-leaders-communicate-climate-policy-should-be-a-defining-factor-this-election-251990

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to have conversations with people who fall for misinformation this election campaign

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jaigris Hodson, Associate Professor of Interdisciplinary Studies, Royal Roads University

    Canadians head to the polls on April 28. Like other recent general elections, both in Canada and around the world, this federal election campaign is sure to be characterized by polarized misinformation.

    We all have someone in our families or social circles who has political opinions grounded in false or misleading information. Whether the source of that information is Russian bots on social media, high-profile podcasters or Fox News, it’s easy to dread election-time conversations as misinformation strains our most important relationships.

    But perhaps we can approach these conversations as an opportunity to push back against growing polarization in our communities.

    My research shows that polarization and misinformation often go hand in hand, and when they do, the information being spread is strongly resistant to being corrected by way of evidence.

    But when we truly begin to listen to the people who believe misinformation, we can often help counter false claims. So in this upcoming election, how can we push back against election misinformation when we hear it? Let’s examine some strategies.



    Read more:
    5 expert tips to protect yourself from online misinformation

    The role of anxiety

    Most people think that others who believe misinformation will change their minds if provided with the right evidence, but that’s simply not true.

    People have good reasons for not wanting to change their minds, even when confronted with contradictory facts. One of the key personality traits linked to the belief in misinformation turns out to be anxiety. This can manifest in ways that resist correction.

    For example, most of us feel anxious when we have to hold two conflicting beliefs at the same time. So if we already believe misinformation and are confronted with evidence to the contrary, we may reject the evidence to avoid the dissonance of managing both beliefs.

    Additionally, people might believe something because others in their social group believe it, meaning there is social anxiety associated with rejecting the group’s belief, even if it’s wrong.

    Finally, anxiety about the future can drive people to accept misinformation that helps to relieve those fears.

    Taken together, this means that correcting political misinformation, which involves all three of the above triggers — self, social and future anxiety — cannot be accomplished solely by providing evidence. We need to mitigate these anxieties while engaging in gentle correction since outright correcting can make the anxieties worse.

    The ‘AIMS’ method

    Motivational interviewing is a proven method of pushing back against another type of polarizing misinformation: health misinformation.

    One particular approach to motivational interviewing, known as the AIMS method, has been successfully tested in Canada for countering vaccine misinformation.

    AIMS stands for Announce, Inquire, Mirror and Secure. It provides a way to address misinformation while building the sort of connection and trust that people need to reduce the anxiety that is the trigger for believing misinformation in the first place.

    The first step, Announce, is where the topic is approached. In the medical world, this usually occurs when a doctor announces that it’s time for a vaccine, but in the world of political misinformation, the announcement doesn’t have to come from a professional.

    Instead, Announce can occur when the person you are talking to announces a piece of political misinformation, like the claim that the government is vaccinating people for the purposes of controlling the population. Announce is basically where the process of addressing misinformation begins.

    Inquire is the step where motivational interviewing really begins to differ from a conventional approach of simply providing evidence to back up a false claim. In this second step, it’s important to ask questions, and approach the misinformation with a sense of curiosity.

    Basically, as you probe more and more deeply, you’re trying to understand the anxieties that are driving the misinformation belief.

    As you ask questions, you begin to also engage in the third step, Mirror. Mirroring means checking in, and repeating what you’re hearing so that the person you are talking to recognizes they’re being heard. At this stage, you can begin to introduce pieces of evidence that disprove the claims being made, but only after you truly understand the person’s concerns and can reflect them back.

    It’s also important to manage how you introduce contradictory evidence. It must be done with compassion and a gentle but reassuring manner.

    Finally, when all the concerns have been addressed, you can begin the final step, which is to Secure trust. Here you can follow up on the announcement that sparked the discussion — the original piece of misinformation — and see if the person you’re talking to now feels differently than they did before.

    Importantly, you may not be successful at securing this step in just one conversation, but if you have conducted the other steps properly, you will have built important trust that, over time, is more likely to help you counter future misinformation with the person you’re talking to.

    Preserving relationships

    Combating any misinformation, and especially political misinformation, is not a quick or easy process. It may have to take place in repeated discussions over a long period of time.

    Political misinformation is particularly difficult to counter because political views are often tied deeply to people’s self-identity, and also because political misinformation is often shared within social groups.

    But if you engage in motivated interviewing this election season, you may make a small difference. At the very least, you will help to preserve relationships with friends and loved ones that are often frayed when political misinformation enters the picture.

    Jaigris Hodson is funded through the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada’s Canada Research Chairs Program.

    – ref. How to have conversations with people who fall for misinformation this election campaign – https://theconversation.com/how-to-have-conversations-with-people-who-fall-for-misinformation-this-election-campaign-252667

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Egg prices soar as outdated supply chains crack under pressure

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jack Buffington, Associate Professor of Practice in Supply Chain Management, University of Denver

    Experts predict that egg prices will keep climbing in 2025. Lindsey Nicholson/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    There may be no kitchen table issue in America more critical than the price of food.

    So when the price of eggs rose over 40% from 2024 to 2025, it became a headline news story in Colorado and across the nation.

    Public officials and the media blamed high egg prices on bird flu outbreaks and said containing the outbreak in supply chains would lower prices. In early March 2025, egg prices fell in the U.S., but these trends are likely to reverse due to higher seasonal demand during Easter and Passover.

    Rising prices and market volatility have led to food costs climbing to 11.4% of American’s disposable income, the largest percentage since 1991.

    Arresting these rising costs, as I argue in my 2023 book, means reinventing supply chains to address the growing supply, demand and price volatility that has created uncertainty for consumers since the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020.

    I have described global supply chains, and supply chains in the U.S. in particular, as “efficiently broken.” By this I mean that they aspire to offer low prices from economies of scale but lack sufficient resiliency to create stability.

    Without addressing the systemic weaknesses in supply chains, I believe major health and economic disruptions will continue to happen in Colorado, nationally and around the world.

    Cage-free eggs

    Colorado faces a double whammy where egg prices are concerned.

    It’s one of nine states with a cage-free egg mandate, which requires all eggs sold in the state to come from cage-free facilities. The regulation has been shown to increase the price of eggs by as much as 50%.

    Over the past two decades, cage-free egg laws have been passed in states as consumers have grown more concerned with the welfare of farm animals. What that means varies from state to state because the term cage-free isn’t regulated by a federal agency. In Colorado, egg-laying hens must be housed in a cage-free system and must have a minimum of 1 square foot of usable floor space per hen.

    Colorado is the 28th largest egg producer in the U.S., far behind Midwestern states such as Iowa, Indiana and Ohio, but it has a few large producers such as Morning Fresh Farms, as well as smaller ones such as the Colorado Egg Producers Association, a collection of seven family-owned farms.

    Colorado’s cage-free egg law went into effect in January 2025 – around the same time that consumers noticed bare egg shelves at their supermarkets. Many consumers and some elected Republicans in Colorado blamed the cage-free law.

    Nevada is pulling back on its cage-free egg mandate to deal with the challenge of unaffordable egg prices.

    But cage-free laws are not the main driver of increasing egg prices, as I’ve noted in my research. Like many others, the egg supply chain needs to be reinvented to balance price, scale, resiliency and stability.

    Supply chain issues

    What is driving up the prices of eggs and other consumer goods is the concentration of producers. The COVID-19 pandemic revealed just how vulnerable prices and supply chains are.

    Five years ago this month, when the pandemic started, many products became unavailable and more expensive.

    In 2022, a major product recall of Similac led to a baby formula shortage in the U.S. The baby formula market is highly concentrated, with four companies responsible for approximately 90% of the domestic market. A large-scale facility that produced the baby formula was found to have unsanitary conditions and contaminated products. Pulling this one facility offline at the same time the nation was coping with pandemic-related supply chain issues led to the shortage.

    Supply chain issues led to a U.S. shortage of baby formula in 2022.
    Lindsey Nicholson/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    Then at the beginning of 2024, supplies of insulin ran short due to production issues at Eli Lilly, one of the three companies responsible for over 90% of the U.S. insulin market.

    And in the second half of 2024, hospitals couldn’t get enough IV fluid due to damage caused by Hurricane Helene to a Baxter factory in North Carolina that manufactures approximately 60% of IV fluids in the U.S. This factory had been relocated to North Carolina from Puerto Rico due to the supply impact from Hurricane Maria that damaged the island in 2017.

    In all of these cases, the supply chain was easily interrupted due to a reliance on a few large producers. In 2025, bird flu and eggs are just another example of America’s “efficiently broken” supply chain.

    Bird flu and cost of eggs

    In the U.S., the top five egg producers are responsible for 40% of hens, with Mississippi-based Cal-Maine Foods alone responsible for 13% of total U.S. production.

    An average-sized production facility in the U.S. can house 75,000 to 500,000 hens. Large facilities can house over 4 million. The mass production of eggs from these facilities means eggs are, in stable times, cost effective for the American consumer. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, eggs in the U.S. never surpassed $3 a dozen, and it was an affordable food solution compared with processed foods.

    But this scale and efficiency comes at the price of resiliency during something like a bird flu outbreak. Larger farms create a higher risk of viral outbreak, which leads to the need for culling millions of birds and a heightened risk of viral replication and mutation.

    The solution may increase prices

    Policymakers want to reduce the spread of disease at American egg factories to mitigate the spread of bird flu. But these measures are expensive.

    Factory farms increase the potential for viruses to spread rapidly and even mutate. Therefore, bird flu is a more serious precursor of supply chain disruption than a hurricane or product recall because it has the potential to create a public health crisis.

    One solution to limit the spread of bird flu is to regulate the number of hens allowed in a single facility. This would lead to smaller and more farms across the U.S., but also higher consumer prices.

    This solution would mirror other countries such as Canada, where the average facility size is much smaller than in the U.S. and eggs and poultry cost significantly more. That’s why – under the terms of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement – Canada has quota and tariff protection from American companies flooding its market with eggs and poultry that would cost consumers two to three times less.

    Yet in March 2025, the price of eggs in Canada is 50% cheaper than eggs in the U.S. because the country has not suffered the same damages from bird flu.

    Following Canada’s lead wouldn’t result in egg prices as low as giant factory farms, but it would protect American consumers from the periodic price shocks caused by disease or localized weather events that disrupt supplies.

    Despite the threat of a public health crisis, American consumers don’t want to pay more for eggs – and their leaders have promised they won’t have to.

    Read more of our stories about Colorado.

    Jack Buffington does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Egg prices soar as outdated supply chains crack under pressure – https://theconversation.com/egg-prices-soar-as-outdated-supply-chains-crack-under-pressure-251425

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Who gets to brand Puerto Rico: Its tourism agency or its biggest star?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Carlos A. Suárez Carrasquillo, Associate Instructional Professor in Political Science, Center for Latin American Studies, University of Florida

    The Puerto Rican rapper Bad Bunny is one of the biggest stars of the music world. After becoming Spotify’s most-streamed artist for three years in a row – the first and only artist ever to do so – he sold out all 49 dates of his 2024 U.S. tour, netting US$211 million.

    Earlier this year, after Bad Bunny co-hosted “The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon” and announced a 21-show residency in Puerto Rico, the recently reelected mayor of San Juan, Miguel Romero, quipped that the artist had done a better job of promoting Puerto Rico than the island’s official destination marketing organization.

    That agency, Discover Puerto Rico, was founded in 2017 to market the island to both tourists and investors. Established during the administration of Gov. Ricardo Rosselló, it was part of a broader effort to professionalize Puerto Rico’s place branding and underscored the importance of tourism to the island’s economy.

    As a scholar of Puerto Rican politics and place branding – and a native Puerto Rican – I think this case study raises interesting public policy questions: Who gets to brand Puerto Rico? Why does it matter if a place has a brand anyway? And if political leaders are dissatisfied with an agency whose sole purpose is to market the island, what comes next?

    It’s not just a place – it’s a brand

    Historically, place-branding campaigns have been led by governments seeking to attract tourism and investment. One of the most iconic examples was the “I Love New York” campaign, launched in 1977 as a collaboration between New York City and private partners. Similar public-private models became more common in the decades that followed.

    Puerto Rico has seen various branding efforts over the years. Early boosterism efforts emerged during the first half of the 20th century, and in 1970, the Puerto Rico Tourism Company was created to promote the island as a
    tourist destination. By the 1990s, many Puerto Rican municipalities had begun adopting different place branding strategies.

    During Puerto Rico’s deepening fiscal crisis in the 2010s, branding efforts remained a bipartisan priority. But the two dominant political parties – the pro-territory Partido Popular Democrático, and the pro-statehood Partido Nuevo Progresista – each rebranded the island every time a new administration took office, raising concerns about consistency. The last major government-led initiative before Discover Puerto Rico was the “Isla Estrella” campaign, which included a sponsorship deal with Spain’s Sevilla FC soccer team.

    The ‘Discover Puerto Rico’ era

    In 2017, Discover Puerto Rico took control over the island’s place-branding efforts. However, its performance has been polarizing, with critics pointing to significant blunders. For example, an early ad in its “Live Boricua” campaign sparked backlash for featuring a family that didn’t look like most Puerto Ricans.

    Beyond its marketing blunders, Discover Puerto Rico has struggled to navigate Puerto Rico’s politically charged place-branding landscape. In fact, it has been contested from the start, and remains so, as recently elected Gov. Jennifer González evaluates its future. It remains unclear to what extent efficiency and economic development will serve as the main criteria for evaluating its success, and to what extent party politics will influence the decision-making process.

    Just a day before Mayor Romero made his remark about Bad Bunny, Discover Puerto Rico’s CEO, Brad Dean, resigned, taking a similar role in St. Louis. Dean has argued that during his tenure, Discover Puerto Rico has driven significant increases in tourism and tourism spending. While these self-reported figures suggest success, they don’t address a critical issue – the long-standing political controversy surrounding Puerto Rico’s branding.

    Pop culture carries the weight

    At the same time the future of Discover Puerto Rico remains uncertain, the island has gained unparalleled international attention thanks to popular music.

    Reggaetón, an urban genre that originated in Puerto Rico in the 1990s, has amassed a massive global fan base, extending beyond Puerto Rico and Latin America to the rest of the world. In 2017, Daddy Yankee and Luis Fonsi’s video for the worldwide hit “Despacito” turned La Perla, a working-class barrio in Old San Juan, into a magnet for tourists from all over the world.

    “Despacito” prompted a surge of visits to La Perla, as the French news agency AFP noted.

    More recently, in January 2025, Bad Bunny released his latest album, “Debí Tirar Más Fotos,” which taps into traditional Puerto Rican music genres such as bomba, plena and música jíbara that aren’t usually associated with reggaetón. It charted at No. 1. Bad Bunny also announced a Puerto Rico-exclusive concert series, with some dates reserved for locals and others open to fans worldwide.

    The success of Puerto Rican reggaetón artists raises an important question: Why have these organic cultural movements been so effective – perhaps even more so than the official expert-driven place-marketing agency – in promoting Puerto Rico as a brand?

    I think the answer probably lies in authenticity. Unlike government-led initiatives, reggaetón’s global appeal stems from its cultural resonance and emotional connection with audiences worldwide, regardless of politics.

    At this critical juncture for the island’s tourism agency, perhaps Discover Puerto Rico should rebrand itself as “Discover the Birthplace of Reggaetón.”

    Carlos A. Suárez Carrasquillo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Who gets to brand Puerto Rico: Its tourism agency or its biggest star? – https://theconversation.com/who-gets-to-brand-puerto-rico-its-tourism-agency-or-its-biggest-star-248825

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: National monuments have grown and shrunk under US presidents for over a century thanks to one law: The Antiquities Act

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Monica Hubbard, Associate Professor of Public Policy and Administration, Boise State University

    Over 730,000 people visit Colorado National Monument each year. It was established in 1911 under the Antiquities Act. Gordon Leggett, CC BY-SA

    America’s public lands, from its majestic national parks to its vast national forests, are at the heart of the country’s identity.

    They cover more than a quarter of the nation and large parts of the West. Some are crisscrossed by hiking trails and used by hunters and fishermen. Ranchers graze cattle on others. In many areas, the government earns money through oil, gas, timber and mining leases.

    These federally managed public lands have long enjoyed broad bipartisan support, as have moves to turn them into protected national parks and monuments. Research consistently shows that a majority of Americans want their congressional representatives to protect public access to these lands for recreation. One avenue for protection is the creation of national monuments.

    But the status of national monuments can change.

    Presidents have expanded and contracted national monuments, as the U.S. saw with Bears Ears National Monument in Utah over the course of the past three presidencies. The rules for the use and maintenance of various public lands can also change, and that can affect surrounding communities and their economies.

    The U.S. is likely to see changes to public lands again under the second Trump administration. One of the new administration’s early orders was for the Department of Interior to review all national monuments for potential oil and gas drilling and mining. At least two national monuments that President Joe Biden created in California are among the new administration’s targets.

    The avenue for many of these changes is rooted in one century-old law.

    The power and vagary of the Antiquities Act

    The Antiquities Act of 1906, signed into law by President Theodore Roosevelt, gave Congress or the president the authority to establish national monuments on federal land as a means of protecting areas for ecological, cultural, historical or scientific purposes.

    From Theodore Roosevelt on, 18 of the 21 presidents have used the Antiquities Act to create, expand or contract national monuments through a presidential proclamation.

    By using the Antiquities Act to create, expand or reduce national monuments, presidents can avoid an environmental impact statement, normally required under the National Environmental Policy Act, which also allows for public input. Supporters argue that forgoing the environmental impact statement helps expedite monument creation and expansion. Critics say bypassing the review means potential impacts of the monument designations can be overlooked.

    The Antiquities Act also offers no clarity on whether a president can reduce the amount of area protected by prior presidents. The act simply states that a president designates “the smallest area compatible with the proper care and management of the objects to be protected.” This has led to the shifting of national monument boundaries based on the priorities of each administration.

    The Citadel Ruins are the remains of Anasazi cliff dwellings at Bears Ears National Monument in Utah.
    Bob Wick/Bureau of Land Management via Wikimedia Commons

    An example is Bears Ears, an area of Utah that is considered significant to several tribes but also has uranium, gas and oil resources. In 2016, President Barack Obama designated Bears Ears a national monument. In 2017, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation reducing Bears Ears by 80% of its total designated size. The monument’s size and scope shifted a third time when President Joe Biden reestablished Bears Ears to the boundaries designated by Obama.

    In the span of just over five years, the monument was created, reduced, then restored to the original monument designation.

    The uncertainty about the long-term reliability of a designation makes it challenging for federal agencies to manage the land or assure Indigenous communities that the government will protect cultural, historical and ecological heritage.

    Public lands can be economic engines

    National parks and monuments can help fuel local economies.

    A 2017 study by Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit research group, found that Western rural counties with more public land have had greater economic growth, including in jobs and personal income, than those with little public land. National monuments can also benefit neighboring counties by increasing population, income and employment opportunities.

    Even small national monuments provide economic benefits for their surrounding communities. Visitors to Fort Stanwix National Monument in Rome, N.Y., spent $5.3 million in nearby communities in 2023, according to a National Park Service report.
    National Park Service via Wikimedia Commons

    While many counties adjacent to public lands may be dependent on natural resource extraction, the establishment of a national monument can open up new opportunities by expanding tourism and recreation. For example, four national parks and monuments in southeastern Utah, including Natural Bridges, drew about 2.4 million visitors who spent nearly US$400 million in surrounding communities.

    However, when there is uncertainty over whether public lands will remain protected, communities may be hesitant to invest in that future, not knowing whether it will soon change.

    What Congress and the courts could do

    There are a few ways to increase the certainty around the future of national monuments.

    First, lawsuits could push the courts to determine whether the president has the authority to reduce national monuments. Since the Antiquities Act doesn’t directly address presidential authority to reduce monument size, that’s an open question.

    Advocacy groups sued the government over Trump’s authority to shrink Bears Ears National Monument, but their cases were put on hold after Biden expanded the monument again. The U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear other cases in 2024 that argued that a president’s authority to declare and expand national monuments should be far more limited under the law.

    Second, Congress could permanently protect designated national monuments through legislation. That would require presidential approval, and the process would likely be slow and cumbersome. Creating White Clouds Wilderness in Idaho, for example, took decades and a public campaign to have it designated a national monument before Congress approved its wilderness designation.

    Third, Congress could take new steps to protect public lands. For example, a bipartisan bill titled Public Lands in Public Hands Act could block privatization of public lands and increase and maintain access for recreation. One of the bill’s lead sponsors is U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke, a Republican from Montana who served as Interior secretary during the first Trump administration. Whether the bill will pass and gain the president’s approval remains to be seen.

    Public lands have widespread support

    The Antiquities Act has led to the creation of 163 terrestrial and marine monuments and subsequently the protection of land and waters that hold cultural, scientific or historic significance.

    These monuments tend to have broad support. During the first Trump administration, there were over 650,000 public comments on Trump’s review of national monument creation. An analysis found that 98% of the comments expressed broad support for both the creation and expansion of national monuments.

    Gold Butte National Monument covers nearly 300,000 acres of remote and rugged desert landscape in southeastern Nevada and is popular with hikers.
    Bureau of Land Management

    Public lands are more than just physical places. They are spaces where our ideals and values around public land unify us as Americans. They are quintessentially American – and in many ways define and shape the American identity.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. National monuments have grown and shrunk under US presidents for over a century thanks to one law: The Antiquities Act – https://theconversation.com/national-monuments-have-grown-and-shrunk-under-us-presidents-for-over-a-century-thanks-to-one-law-the-antiquities-act-252707

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Japanese anime draws on religious traditions to explore themes of destiny, sacrifice and the struggle between desire and duty

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ronald S. Green, Professor and Chair of the Department of Philosophy and Religious Studies, Coastal Carolina University

    Kyojuro Rengoku, also known as the Flame Hashira, is a central character in the ‘Demon Slayer’ series. Deviant Art, CC BY-ND

    I have spent years studying and teaching Japanese anime, exploring how its narratives intertwine with cultural, philosophical and religious traditions. One of the most compelling aspects of Japanese anime is its ability to merge thrilling action with deep spiritual and ethical questions.

    “Demon Slayer: Mugen Train,” which shattered Japanese box-office records for earnings and ended up as 2020’s highest-grossing film in the world, is a prime example of how anime engages with these profound themes. With “Demon Slayer” continuing its global success, it is an opportune time to examine how it intertwines Buddhist, Shinto and samurai traditions into a narrative of heroism, impermanence and moral struggle.

    Spiritual themes in anime

    Anime often explores spiritual and philosophical questions by drawing on Japan’s religious traditions to examine themes of fate, self-sacrifice and the struggle between desire and duty.

    Hayao Miyazaki’s “Princess Mononoke,” for example, follows Prince Ashitaka, who is cursed by a demon and must journey to find a cure. His quest leads him into a conflict between the industrialized Irontown, which seeks to expand by clearing forests, and the spirits of the natural world, including the Deer God, a divine being that governs life and death.

    The film reflects Shinto principles by portraying nature as sacred and inhabited by “kami,” or spiritual beings. It emphasizes harmony between humans and the environment and the consequences of disrupting this balance.

    Scholar Melissa Croteau, in her book “Transcendence and Spirituality in Japanese Cinema,” notes how Miyazaki’s films use nature spirits to critique modernity’s detachment from the sacredness of the environment.

    A still from ‘Spirited Away’ in which 10-year-old Chihiro must learn to navigate an unseen world.
    GoodFon.com, CC BY-NC

    Similarly, his 2001 animated film “Spirited Away” reflects animist ideas in Japanese culture, where spirits are believed to inhabit natural elements and even everyday objects. Set in a mysterious Japanese bathhouse filled with “kami,” 10-year-old Chihiro, once shy and afraid of change, learns to navigate this hidden world and transforms along the way.

    A key moment in the film is the arrival of a polluted river spirit, which appears as a filthy, sludge-covered creature but is revealed to be a once-pristine river god, burdened by human waste. This scene embodies the animist belief that natural entities have their own spirit and must be respected. It also reinforces an environmental message: When nature is polluted or mistreated, it loses its vitality, but with care and reverence it can be restored.

    “Neon Genesis Evangelion,” a landmark Japanese anime television series that aired from 1995 to 1996, engages with deep philosophical ideas, particularly existentialist questions of identity and purpose. Set in a postapocalyptic world, the series follows 14-year-old Shinji Ikari, who is recruited to pilot a giant biomechanical weapon called an evangelion to defend humanity against mysterious beings known as Angels.

    As Shinji and his fellow pilots struggle with their roles, the series explores themes of isolation, self-worth and the challenges of forming close, meaningful relationships. It draws from both Buddhist and Gnostic thought, which emphasize a focus on inner spiritual knowledge and the belief that clinging too tightly to the material world causes suffering. Evangelion portrays suffering as arising from attachment and the inability to form meaningful relationships.

    Rengoku: The embodiment of selfless heroism

    What sets “Mugen Train” apart is its focus on the internal conflicts of its characters, symbolized by their battles with demons. These demons represent human suffering and attachment, themes deeply influenced by Buddhist thought. At the heart of the film is Kyojuro Rengoku, a demon slayer who embodies unwavering selflessness and honor.

    Rengoku’s flame-breathing forms.

    Rengoku’s fire-based fighting style is deeply symbolic. In Japanese culture, fire represents both destruction and renewal. The Kurama Fire Festival, held annually on Oct. 22 in Kyoto, is a Shinto ritual where large torches are carried through the streets to ward off evil and purify the land.

    Similarly, Buddhist goma fire ceremonies involve priests burning wooden sticks in sacred flames to symbolize the eradication of ignorance and desire. Rengoku’s own techniques reflect this duality: His flames cleanse the world of evil while signifying his unwavering spirit.

    Goma fire ritual.

    Bushido, the samurai code of honor, underpins Rengoku’s character. Rooted in Confucian ethics, Zen Buddhism and Shinto beliefs, this code emphasizes loyalty, self-sacrifice and duty to protect others. His mother’s teaching – “The strong must protect the weak” – guides his every action, reflecting the Confucian value of filial piety and the moral obligation to serve society.

    Bushido’s connection to Zen Buddhism, with its focus on discipline and acceptance of impermanence, further shapes Rengoku’s unwavering resolve, while its Shinto influences reinforce his role as a guardian upholding a sacred duty.

    Even approaching death, Rengoku remains steadfast, accepting impermanence, or “mujō,” a fundamental Buddhist principle that sees beauty in life’s transience. His sacrifice teaches that true strength lies in selflessness and moral integrity.

    Akaza: A manifestation of attachment and suffering

    Opposing Rengoku is Akaza, a demon who embodies the destructive consequences of clinging to power and immortality. Once human, Akaza became a demon in his obsession with strength, unable to accept the impermanence of life.

    His refusal to acknowledge death aligns with Buddhist teachings that suffering arises from attachment and desire. Scholars such as Jacqueline Stone have explored how Buddhist texts portray clinging to existence as a fundamental source of suffering, a theme vividly reflected in Akaza’s character.

    Visual elements reinforce Akaza’s symbolism. His body is covered in tattoos reminiscent of “irezumi,” traditional Japanese body art historically associated with crime and hardship. In Edo-period Japan, tattoos were often used to mark criminals, branding them as outcasts from society. Even today, irezumi remains stigmatized in many parts of Japan, with some public bathhouses, gyms and swimming pools barring individuals with visible tattoos due to their historical association with the yakuza. In contemporary anime, tattooed characters frequently symbolize a troubled past or inner turmoil, reinforcing Akaza’s role as a figure trapped by his own suffering and destructive path.

    Akaza’s irezumi visually conveys his entrapment in cycles of suffering, reinforcing his contrast with Rengoku’s liberating flames.

    A battle about human struggles

    The battle between Rengoku and Akaza is more than a fight between good and evil; it is a clash between two worldviews – selflessness versus egoism, acceptance versus attachment. “Mugen Train” taps into universal human struggles, making its themes resonate far beyond Japan.

    The film’s exploration of impermanence, moral duty and the pursuit of meaning contributes to anime’s broader legacy as a medium that entertains while provoking deep philosophical reflection.

    As “Demon Slayer” continues to captivate audiences worldwide, evidenced by social media buzz around its new projects and the ongoing enthusiasm of fans, its success underscores anime’s ability to blend action with profound themes.

    Whether through Rengoku’s selfless courage or Akaza’s tragic downfall, “Mugen Train” offers a timeless meditation on what it means to live with purpose and integrity.

    Ronald S. Green does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Japanese anime draws on religious traditions to explore themes of destiny, sacrifice and the struggle between desire and duty – https://theconversation.com/how-japanese-anime-draws-on-religious-traditions-to-explore-themes-of-destiny-sacrifice-and-the-struggle-between-desire-and-duty-246960

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Poor neighborhoods, health care barriers are factors for heart disease risk in Black mothers

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Curisa M. Tucker, Assistant Professor of Nursing Science, University of South Carolina

    The study examined more than 7 million births that occurred over 22 years. supersizer/E+ via Getty Images

    Living in a disadvantaged neighborhood contributes to a rare form of heart failure known as peripartum cardiomyopathy, a potentially deadly disease that disproportionately affects Black mothers.

    That’s the key finding of my recent study, published in February 2025 in the Journal of the American Heart Association.

    Peripartum cardiomyopathy can occur in pregnant or postpartum mothers during late pregnancy up to five months after birth. The disease is difficult to identify and is often misdiagnosed. Multiple studies estimate that 7% to 20% of U.S. mothers who have it don’t survive.

    As a nurse scientist with a research focus on maternal health equity, I wanted to learn more about the factors that cause peripartum cardiomyopathy.

    My team and I examined more than 7.3 million birth records in California between 1997 and 2019. By using the neighborhood deprivation index, which measures socioeconomic disadvantage in a geographic area, we linked hospital discharge and vital records information up to 12 months postpartum follow-up on each woman. From that data, we developed a more complete picture on why women developed the illness.

    We found that living in poor neighborhoods with fewer resources was associated with a 20% to 70% increased risk of developing this disease. Those in the most under-resourced neighborhoods – areas with less access to nutritious food, stable housing and quality health care – had the highest risk. This was true even after accounting for other factors, like income, race, high blood pressure and obesity.

    But living in highly stressed neighborhoods explained only part of the reason for the higher rates of peripartum cardiomyopathy in Black women. We found that even if they lived in better neighborhoods, Black women were still more than three times as likely to develop the condition than others.

    Why it matters

    Our findings suggest deeper issues are contributing to the increase in the disease, particularly in Black women.

    Barriers to health care are critical. These include insurance gaps,
    transportation issues, the biases of doctors and other providers and inadequate access to care.

    A better understanding of these factors can help policymakers develop effective interventions for all women at risk and reallocate resources – and dollars – to prevent disparities in maternal health outcomes.

    Pregnancy itself causes increased stress on the heart.

    What still isn’t known

    Our study only points to neighborhood disinvestment and chronic high blood pressure as contributors to the risk of peripartum cardiomyopathy. Unanswered questions remain about the other causes.

    More research is needed to fully understand how social determinants of health, which are the environmental conditions where people are born, live, work and play, affect health outcomes.

    For example, these communities are often food deserts – places with limited access to healthy food and larger supermarkets. Overcrowded or poor-quality housing also contribute to stress and health problems. So does the lack of safe space for physical activity.

    What’s next

    My future work will focus on further identifying the key factors that influence peripartum cardiomyopathy risk, such as economic stability and the effects of environmental stressors, like pollution.

    I’ll also track the long-term health of peripartum cardiomyopathy survivors to understand how social factors affect recovery. My ultimate goal is to inform policies and practices that reduce disparities and improve maternal heart health for all.

    The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

    NIH provided funding to support this work.

    – ref. Poor neighborhoods, health care barriers are factors for heart disease risk in Black mothers – https://theconversation.com/poor-neighborhoods-health-care-barriers-are-factors-for-heart-disease-risk-in-black-mothers-250591

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine will need major rebuilding when war ends − here’s why the US isn’t likely to invest in its recovery with a new Marshall Plan

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Frank A. Blazich Jr., Curator of Military History, National Museum of American History, Smithsonian Institution

    Europe after World War II? No, it’s the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut in 2023, after a year of Russian bombardment. AP Photo, File

    President Donald Trump wants Ukraine to repay the United States for helping to defend the country against Russia’s invasion.

    Since 2022, Congress has provided about US$174 billion to Ukraine and neighboring countries to assist its war effort. Trump inflated this figure to $350 billion in a March 2025 White House meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron. Separately, he has suggested Ukraine could reimburse the U.S. by giving America access to its minerals.

    Ukraine is rich in titanium, graphite, manganese and other rare earth metals used to produce electric vehicle batteries and other tech devices.

    Mining and refining these critical mineral resources would require major investment in infrastructure and economic development, including in parts of Ukraine severely damaged by fighting. Some analysts are calling for a return to the European Recovery Program, commonly known as the Marshall Plan.

    The Marshall Plan used $13.3 billion in U.S. funds – roughly $171 billion in today’s dollars – to rebuild war-torn Western Europe from 1948 to late 1951. It is often evoked as a solution for reconstruction following global crises. Yet as a military historian and curator, I find that the Marshall Plan is not well understood.

    For the U.S., the economic gains of the Marshall Plan did not come from European countries’ repaying loans or allowing the U.S. to extract their raw materials. Rather, the U.S. has benefited enormously from a half-century of goodwill, democratic stability and economic success in Europe.

    European nations turn inward

    After World War II ended in 1945, Western Europe faced a staggering burden of destruction and upheaval.

    Allied bombardment of major industrial areas and German cities such as Berlin, Hamburg and Cologne had created massive housing shortages. Meanwhile, fighting through agricultural areas and a critical manpower shortage had curtailed food production. What harvest there was could not get to hungry civilians because so many of Europe’s roads, bridges and ports had been destroyed.

    The United Kingdom, Italy, France, Germany and other European governments were buried in debt after so many years of war. They could not afford to rebuild on their own. Yet rather than cooperating on their mutual economic reconstruction, European nations looked inward, focusing primarily on their own political challenges.

    The continent was politically and militarily divided, too. Europe’s western half was influenced by the democratic, capitalistic forces led by the U.S. Eastern Europe was beholden to the communist, command-economy forces of the Soviet Union.

    In a 1946 speech at Westminster College in Fulton, Missouri, former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill articulated Europe’s growing postwar divide. Over the ruins of proud nations, he said, “an iron curtain” had “descended across the continent.”

    US looks abroad

    Unlike Europe, the U.S. emerged from World War II as the wealthiest nation in the world, with its territory intact and unharmed. Its steel and oil industries were booming. By 1947, the U.S. was the clear successor to Great Britain as the world’s superpower.

    But President Harry Truman feared the ambitions of the war’s other great victor – the Soviet Union. In March 1947, he announced a new doctrine to contain communist expansion southward across Europe by giving $400 million in military and economic aid to Greece and Turkey.

    Around the same time, U.S. Secretary of State George Marshall met with Soviet officials to plan Germany’s future. Following the Nazis’ surrender in May 1945, Germany had been divided into four occupied zones administered by U.S., British, French and Soviet forces.

    Each nation had its own goals for its section of Germany. The U.S. wanted to revitalize Germany politically and economically, believing that a moribund Germany would thwart the economic reconstruction of all of Europe.

    Marshall hoped that the Soviets would cooperate, but Soviet ruler Josef Stalin preferred extracting reparations from a prostrate Germany to investing in its recovery. A vibrant German economic engine, the Soviets felt, could just as easily rearm to attack the Russian countryside for the third time that century.

    The Truman administration chose to unilaterally rebuild the three western Allied sectors of Germany – and Western Europe.

    Marshall outlined his plan at a commencement address at Harvard University in June 1947. American action to restore global economic health, he said, would provide the foundation for political stability and peace in Europe. And an economically healthy Western Europe, in turn, would inhibit the spread of communism by plainly demonstrating the benefits of capitalism.

    “Our policy is not directed against any country,” Marshall said, “but against hunger, poverty, desperation and chaos.”

    Marshall’s plan

    Marshall invited all European nations to participate in drafting a plan to first address the immediate humanitarian aid of Europe’s people, then rebuild its infrastructure. The U.S. would pay for it all.

    For nearly bankrupt European nations, it was a lifeline.

    In September 1947, the new Committee for European Economic Co-operation, composed of 16 Western – but not Eastern – European nations, delivered its proposal to Washington.

    It would take a masterful legislative strategy for the Democratic Truman administration to persuade the Republican-led Congress to pass this $13 billion bill. It succeeded thanks to the dedicated effort of Republican Sen. Arthur Vandenberg, who convinced his isolationist colleagues that the Marshall Plan would halt the expansion of communism and benefit American economic growth.

    In April 1948, Truman signed the Economic Cooperation Act. By year’s end, over $2 billion had reached Europe, and its industrial production had finally surpassed prewar levels seen in 1939.

    NATO is born

    Along with economic stability, the Truman administration recognized that Europe needed military security to defend against communist encroachment by the Soviet Union.

    In July 1949, 12 European countries, the U.S. and Canada established the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. NATO committed each member country to the mutual defense of fellow NATO members.

    Since 1947, NATO has steadily expanded eastward to include Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and other former Soviet satellite states directly bordering Russia.

    Ukraine, which declared its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, is not yet a NATO member. But it desperately wants to be.

    Ukraine applied for NATO membership in 2022 after Russia’s invasion. Its application is pending. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said any peace deal with Ukraine must bar NATO membership.

    Would a Marshall Plan work for Ukraine?

    Modern-day Ukraine mirrors the Western European countries of the Marshall Plan era in meaningful ways.

    It suffers from the physical devastation of war, with its major cities heavily damaged. The threat of military attack from hostile neighbors remains urgent. And it has a functional, democratic government that would – in peacetime – be capable of receiving and distributing aid to develop the nation’s economic growth and stability.

    U.S. global leadership, however, has changed dramatically since 1948.

    Outright American taxpayer financing of Ukraine’s reconstruction seems impossible. Any plan to reconstruct the country after war will likely require public funding from multiple nations and substantial private investment. That private investment could well include mineral extraction and refinement ventures.

    Ultimately, Ukraine’s recovery will most likely involve Ukraine and neighboring nations reaching agreement to restore its economic and military security. The European Union, which Ukraine also seeks to join, has the bureaucratic and economic resources necessary to reconstruct Ukraine, restore peace and ease tensions on the continent.

    Any future Marshall Plan for Ukraine will probably be European.

    Frank A. Blazich Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ukraine will need major rebuilding when war ends − here’s why the US isn’t likely to invest in its recovery with a new Marshall Plan – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-will-need-major-rebuilding-when-war-ends-heres-why-the-us-isnt-likely-to-invest-in-its-recovery-with-a-new-marshall-plan-251872

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How many types of insects are there in the world?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Nicholas Green, Assistant Professor of Biology, Kennesaw State University

    This is a close-up photo of an ordinary garden fly. Amith Nag Photography/Moment via Getty Images

    Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com.

    How many types of insects are there in the world? – Sawyer, age 8, Fuquay-Varina, North Carolina

    Exploring anywhere on Earth, look closely and you’ll find insects. Check your backyard and you may see ants, beetles, crickets, wasps, mosquitoes and more. There are more kinds of insects than there are mammals, birds and plants combined. This fact has fascinated scientists for centuries.

    One of the things biologists like me do is classify all living things into categories. Insects belong to a phylum called Arthropoda – animals with hard exoskeletons and jointed feet.

    All insects are arthropods, but not all arthropods are insects. For instance, spiders, lobsters and millipedes are arthropods, but they’re not insects.

    Instead, insects are a subgroup within Arthropoda, a class called “Insecta,” that is characterized by six legs, two antennae and three body segments – head, abdomen and the thorax, which is the part of the body between the head and abdomen.

    The mandibles of the ants are its jaws; the petiole is the ant’s waist.
    Vector Mine/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    Most insects also have wings, although a few, like fleas, don’t. All have compound eyes, which means insects see very differently from the way people see. Instead of one lens per eye, they have many: a fly has 5,000 lenses; a dragonfly has 30,000. These types of eyes, though not great for clarity, are excellent at detecting movement.

    What is a species?

    All insects descend from a common ancestor that lived about about 480 million years ago. For context, that’s about 100 million years before any of our vertebrate ancestors – animals with a backbone – ever walked on land.

    A species is the most basic unit that biologists use to classify living things. When people use words like “ant” or “fly” or “butterfly” they are referring not to species, but to categories that may contain hundreds, thousands or tens of thousands of species. For example, about 18,000 species of butterfly exist – think monarch, zebra swallowtail or cabbage white.

    Basically, species are a group that can interbreed with each other, but not with other groups. One obvious example: bees can’t interbreed with ants.

    But brown-belted bumblebees and red-belted bumblebees can’t interbreed either, so they are different species of bumblebee.

    Each species has a unique scientific name – like Bombus griseocollis for the brown-belted bumblebee – so scientists can be sure which species they’re talking about.

    This is what a dragonfly looks like up close.
    Dieter Meyrl/E+ via Getty Images

    Quadrillions of ants

    Counting the exact number of insect species is probably impossible. Every year, some species go extinct, while some evolve anew. Even if we could magically freeze time and survey the entire Earth all at once, experts would disagree on the distinctiveness or identity of some species. So instead of counting, researchers use statistical analysis to make an estimate.

    One scientist did just that. He published his answer in a 2018 research paper. His calculations showed there are approximately 5.5 million insect species, with the correct number almost certainly between 2.6 and 7.2 million.

    Beetles alone account for almost one-third of the number, about 1.5 million species. By comparison, there are “only” an estimated 22,000 species of ants. This and other studies have also estimated about 3,500 species of mosquitoes, 120,000 species of flies and 30,000 species of grasshoppers and crickets.

    The estimate of 5.5 million species of insects is interesting. What’s even more remarkable is that because scientists have found only about 1 million species, that means more than 4.5 million species are still waiting for someone to discover them. In other words, over 80% of the Earth’s insect biodiversity is still unknown.

    Add up the total population and biomass of the insects, and the numbers are even more staggering. The 22,000 species of ants comprise about 20,000,000,000,000,000 individuals – that’s 20 quadrillion ants. And if a typical ant weighs about 0.0001 ounces (3 milligrams) – or one ten-thousandth of an ounce – that means all the ants on Earth together weigh more than 132 billion pounds (about 60 billion kilograms).

    That’s the equivalent of about 7 million school buses, 600 aircraft carriers or about 20% of the weight of all humans on Earth combined.

    For every person on Earth, it’s estimated there are 200 million insects.

    Many insect species are going extinct

    All of this has potentially huge implications for our own human species. Insects affect us in countless ways. People depend on them for crop pollination, industrial products and medicine. Other insects can harm us by transmitting disease or eating our crops.

    Most insects have little to no direct impact on people, but they are integral parts of their ecosystems. This is why entomologists – bug scientists – say we should leave insects alone as much as possible. Most of them are harmless to people, and they are critical to the environment.

    It is sobering to note that although millions of undiscovered insect species may be out there, many will go extinct before people have a chance to discover them. Largely due to human activity, a significant proportion of Earth’s biodiversity – including insects – may ultimately be forever lost.

    Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

    And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.

    Nicholas Green does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How many types of insects are there in the world? – https://theconversation.com/how-many-types-of-insects-are-there-in-the-world-247333

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Rethinking repression − why memory researchers reject the idea of recovered memories of trauma

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Gabrielle Principe, Professor of Psychology, College of Charleston

    Memories and photos both can misrepresent the past. Westend61 via Getty Images

    In 1990, George Franklin was convicted of murder and sentenced to life in prison based on the testimony of his 28-year-old daughter Eileen. She described seeing him rape her best friend and then smash her skull with a rock.

    When Eileen testified at her father’s trial, her memory of the murder was relatively fresh. It was less than a year old. Yet the murder happened 20 years earlier, when she was 8 years old.

    How can you have a one-year-old memory of something that happened 20 years ago? According to the prosecution, Eileen repressed her memory of the murder. Then much later she recovered it in complete detail.

    Can a memory of something so harrowing disappear for two decades and then resurface in a reliable form?

    This case launched a huge debate between memory researchers like me who argue there is no credible scientific evidence that repressed memories exist and practicing clinicians who claim that repressed memories are real.

    This controversy is not merely an academic one. Real people’s lives have been shattered by newly recollected traumatic experiences from childhood. I’ve seen this firsthand as a memory expert who consults on legal cases involving defendants accused of crimes they allegedly committed years or even decades ago. Often the only evidence linking the defendant to the crime is a recovered memory.

    But the scientific community disagrees about the existence of the phenomenon of repressed memory.

    Freud was the father of repression

    Nineteenth-century psychoanalytic theorist Sigmund Freud developed the concept of repression. He considered it a defense mechanism people use to protect themselves from traumatic experiences that become too overwhelming.

    The idea is that repression buries memories of trauma in your unconscious, where they – unlike other memories – reside unknown to you. They remain hidden, in a pristine, fixed form.

    In Freud’s view, repressed memories make themselves known by leaking out in mental and physical symptoms – symptoms that can be relieved only through recovering the traumatic memory in a safe psychological environment.

    In the 1980s, increasing numbers of therapists became concerned about the prevalence of child sexual abuse and the historical tendencies to dismiss or hide the maltreatment of children. This shift gave new life to the concept of repression.

    Rise of repressed memory recovery

    Therapists in this camp told clients that their symptoms, such as anxiety, depression or eating disorders, were the result of repressed memories of childhood sexual abuse that needed to be remembered to heal. To recover these memories, therapists used a range of techniques such as hypnosis, suggestive questioning, repeated imagining, bodywork and group sessions.

    Did recovered-memory therapy work? Many people who entered therapy for common mental health issues did come out with new and unexpected memories of childhood sexual abuse and other trauma, without physical evidence or corroboration from others.

    But were these memories real?

    The notion of repressed memories runs counter to decades of scientific evidence demonstrating that traumatic events tend to be very well remembered over long intervals of time. Many victims of documented trauma, ranging from the Holocaust to combat exposure, torture and natural disasters, do not appear to be able to block out their memories.

    In fact, trauma sometimes is too well remembered, as in the case of post-traumatic stress disorder. Recurrent and intrusive traumatic memories are a core symptom of PTSD.

    No memory ≠ repressed memory

    There are times when victims of trauma may not remember what happened. But this doesn’t necessarily mean the memory has been repressed. There are a range of alternative explanations for not remembering traumatic experiences.

    Trauma, like anything you experience, can be forgotten as the result of memory decay. Details fade with time, and retrieving the right remnants of experience becomes increasingly difficult if not impossible.

    Someone might make the deliberate choice to not think about upsetting events. Psychologists call this motivated forgetting or suppression.

    There also are biological causes of forgetting such as brain injury and substance abuse.

    Trauma also can interfere with the making of a memory in the first place. When stress becomes too big or too prolonged, attention can shift from the experience itself to attempts to regulate emotion, endure what’s happening or even survive. This narrow focus can result in little to no memory of what happened.

    A forgotten memory isn’t just waiting around to be rediscovered – it’s gone.
    malerapaso/E+ via Getty Images

    False memories

    If science rejects the notion of repressed memories, there’s still one question to confront: Where do newly recollected trauma memories, such as those triggered in recovered-memory therapy, come from?

    All memories are subject to distortions when you mistakenly incorporate expectations, assumptions or information from others that was not part of the original event.

    Memory researchers contend that memory recovery techniques might actually create false memories of things that never happened rather than resurrect existing memories of real experiences.

    To study this possibility, researchers asked participants to elaborate on events that never happened using the same sorts of suggestive questioning techniques used by recovered-memory therapists.

    What they found was startling. They were able to induce richly detailed false memories of a wide range of childhood traumatic experiences, such as choking, hospitalization and being a victim of a serious animal attack, in almost one-third of participants.

    These researchers were intentionally planting false memories. But I don’t think intention would be necessary on the part of a sympathetic therapist working with a suffering client.

    Are the memory wars over?

    The belief in repressed memories remains well entrenched among the general public and mental health professionals. More than half believe that traumatic experiences can become repressed in the unconscious, where they lurk, waiting to be uncovered.

    This remains the case even though in his later work, Freud revised his original concept of repression to argue that it doesn’t work on actual memories of experiences, but rather involves the inhibition of certain impulses, desires and fantasies. This revision rarely makes it into popular conceptions of repression.

    As evidence of the current widespread belief in repressed memories, in the past few years several U.S. states and European countries have extended or abolished the statute of limitations for the prosecution of sexual crimes, which allows for testimony based on allegedly recovered memories of long-ago crimes.

    Given the ease with which researchers can create false childhood memories, one of the unforeseen consequences of these changes is that falsely recovered memories of abuse might find their way into court – potentially leading to unfounded accusations and wrongful convictions.

    Gabrielle Principe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Rethinking repression − why memory researchers reject the idea of recovered memories of trauma – https://theconversation.com/rethinking-repression-why-memory-researchers-reject-the-idea-of-recovered-memories-of-trauma-237419

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Genomic sequencing reveals previously unknown genes that make microbes resistant to drugs and hard to kill

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Nneka Vivian Iduu, Graduate Research Assistant in Pathobiology, Auburn University

    In the 20th century, when a routine infection was treated with a standard antibiotic, recovery was expected. But over time, the microbes responsible for these infections have evolved to evade the very drugs designed to eliminate them.

    Each year, there are more than 2.8 million antibiotic-resistant infections in the United States, leading to over 35,000 deaths and US$4.6 billion in health care costs. As antibiotics become less effective, antimicrobial resistance poses an increasing threat to public health.

    Antimicrobial resistance began to emerge as a serious threat in the 1940s with the rise of penicillin resistance. By the 1990s, it had escalated into a global concern. Decades later, critical questions still remain: How does antimicrobial resistance emerge, and how can scientists track the hidden changes leading to it? Why does resistance in some microbes remain undetected until an outbreak occurs? Filling these knowledge gaps is crucial to preventing future outbreaks, improving treatment outcomes and saving lives.

    Antimicrobial resistance can be deadly.

    Over the years, my work as a microbiologist and biomedical scientist has focused on investigating the genetics of infectious microbes. My colleagues and I identified a resistance gene previously undetected in the U.S. using genetic and computational methods that can help improve how scientists detect and track antimicrobial resistance.

    Challenges of detecting resistance

    Antimicrobial resistance is a natural process where microbes constantly evolve as a defense mechanism, acquiring genetic changes that enhance their survival.

    Unfortunately, human activities can speed up this process. The overuse and misuse of antibiotics in health care, farming and the environment push bacteria to genetically change in ways that allow them to survive the drugs meant to kill them.

    Early detection of antimicrobial resistance is crucial for effective treatment. Surveillance typically begins with a laboratory sample obtained from patients with suspected infections, which is then analyzed to identify potential antimicrobial resistance. Traditionally, this has been done using culture-based methods that involve exposing microbes to antibiotics in the lab and observing whether they survived to determine whether they were becoming resistant. Along with helping authorities and researchers monitor the spread of antimicrobial resistance, hospitals use this approach to decide on treatment plans.

    However, culture-based approaches have some limitations. Resistant infections often go unnoticed until antibiotics fail, making both detection and intervention processes slow. Additionally, new resistance genes may escape detection altogether.

    Genomics of antimicrobial resistance

    To overcome these challenges, researchers have integrated genomic sequencing into antimicrobial resistance surveillance. Through whole-genome sequencing, we can analyze all the DNA in a microbial sample to get a comprehensive view of all the genes present – including those responsible for resistance. With the computational tools of bioinformatics, researchers can efficiently process vast amounts of genetic data to improve the detection of resistance threats.

    Despite its advantages, integrating genomic sequencing into antimicrobial resistance monitoring presents some challenges of its own. High costs, quality assurance and a shortage of trained bioinformaticians make implementation difficult. Additionally, the complexity of interpreting genomic data may limit its use in clinical and public health decision-making.

    Bioinformatics allows researchers to analyze large biological datasets.
    hh5800/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    Establishing international standards could help make whole-genome sequencing and bioinformatics a fully reliable tool for resistance surveillance. The World Health Organization recommends laboratories follow strict quality control measures to ensure accurate and comparable results. This includes using reliable, user-friendly computational tools and shared microbial databases. Additional strategies include investing in training programs and fostering collaborations between hospitals, research labs and universities.

    Discovering a resistance gene

    Combining whole genome sequencing and bioinformatics, my colleagues and I analyzed Salmonella samples collected from several animal species between 1982 and 1999. We discovered a Salmonella resistance gene called blaSCO-1 that has evaded detection in U.S. livestock for decades.

    The blaSCO-1 gene confers resistance to microbes against several critical antibiotics, including ampicillin, amoxicillin-clavulanic acid and, to some extent, cephalosporins and carbapenems. These medications are crucial for treating infections in both humans and animals.

    Salmonella Typhimurium invading a cell.
    NIAID/Flickr, CC BY-SA

    The blaSCO-1 gene likely remained unreported because routine surveillance usually targets well-known resistance genes and it has overlapping functions with other genes. Gaps in bioinformatics expertise may have also hindered its identification.

    The failure to detect genes like blaSCO-1 raises concern about its potential role in past treatment failures. Between 2015 and 2018, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began implementing whole-genome sequencing for routine surveillance of Salmonella. Studies conducted during this period found that 77% of multistate outbreaks were linked to livestock harboring resistant Salmonella.

    These missed genes have significant implications for both food safety and public health. Undetected antimicrobial resistance genes can spread through food animals, contaminated food products, processing environments and agricultural runoff, allowing resistant bacteria to persist and reach humans. These resistant bacteria lead to infections that are harder to treat and increase the risk of outbreaks. Moreover, the global movement of people, livestock and goods means that these resistant strains can easily cross borders, turning local outbreaks into worldwide health threats.

    Identifying new resistance genes not only fills a critical knowledge gap, but it also demonstrates how genomic and computational approaches can help detect hidden resistance mechanisms before they pose widespread threats.

    Strengthening surveillance

    As antimicrobial resistance continues to rise, adopting a One Health approach that integrates human, animal and environmental factors can help ensure that emerging resistance does not outpace humans’ ability to combat it.

    Initiatives like the Quadripartite AMR Multi-Partner Trust Fund provide support for programs that strengthen global collaborative surveillance, promote responsible antimicrobial use and drive the development of sustainable alternatives. Ensuring researchers around the world follow common research standards will allow more labs – especially those in low- and middle-income countries – to contribute to global surveillance efforts.

    The health of future generations depends on the world’s ability to ensure food safety and protect public health on a global scale. In the ongoing battle between microbial evolution and human innovation, vigilance and adaptability are key to staying ahead.

    This research was supported by the USDA Agricultural Research Service Program, the FDA and the HHS.

    – ref. Genomic sequencing reveals previously unknown genes that make microbes resistant to drugs and hard to kill – https://theconversation.com/genomic-sequencing-reveals-previously-unknown-genes-that-make-microbes-resistant-to-drugs-and-hard-to-kill-250148

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How political leaders communicate climate policy c should be a defining factor this election

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Andrew Heffernan, Climate Associate at the Information Integrity Lab and Adjunct Professor in Political Studies, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa

    Prime Minister Mark Carney has called an April 28 federal election, setting the stage for a campaign where climate policy could be a central issue.

    The current iteration of Canada’s consumer carbon rebate is dead — which many view as a casualty of effective communication — yet climate policy remains a pressing topic for voters and a major battleground for political leaders.



    Read more:
    The Canada Carbon Rebate is still widely misunderstood — here’s why

    As Canada grapples with intensifying climate-related challenges, the next government will not only need to implement evidence-based policies to meet international climate commitments, but also effectively communicate its vision to voters.

    The public remains concerned about environmental issues, yet many are worried that bold climate policies have damaged the economy. This tension between environmental responsibility and economic growth will shape how each party formulates and communicates their climate policies in the upcoming campaign.

    The Liberals: Navigating the middle ground

    For Carney and the Liberal Party, the challenge is twofold. First, the Liberals must present a new climate plan after the collapse of the consumer carbon rebate, which has faced widespread public opposition in recent years.

    While the new Liberal leader has already terminated the the carbon rebate, it still remains unclear what exactly his comprehensive climate plan will look like. Carney’s website states that his strategy will: “Provide incentives for consumers. Put more of the burden on big polluters. And help us build the strongest economy in the G7.”



    Read more:
    Big government, big trouble? Defending the future of Canada’s climate policy

    This suggests his climate policy will hinge more on positive incentives for consumers to invest in sustainable approaches rather than putting a cost on polluting.

    While the carbon rebate initially enjoyed broad support as a key tool for reducing emissions, it has become a lightning rod for political controversy.

    Climate change is no longer just an environmental issue; it’s increasingly seen as a matter of economic survival, with green energy jobs and clean technologies representing an opportunity for Canada to position itself as a global leader in the sector.

    Carney will have to make a convincing case that his policy will create jobs, stimulate innovation and provide a clear path toward a greener, more sustainable economy.

    Failing to do so could lead to the loss of centrist and moderate voters, some of whom are wary of the perceived economic risks of aggressive climate action.

    The Conservatives: Axing the rebate isn’t enough

    On the opposite end of the political spectrum, federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has made axing the carbon rebate a central part of his platform.

    Framing the carbon rebate as an economic penalty, Poilievre has played into populist sentiments by promising to “axe the tax” and relieve financial pressures on Canadian families and businesses.

    However, even if the Conservatives are successful in eliminating the carbon rebate, they still face the challenge of needing a comprehensive climate policy that lowers emissions and meets Canada’s Paris Agreement targets. Poilievre has said he would not withdraw Canada from the accord, but he hasn’t addressed how he would meet Canada’s commitments.

    Poilievre’s populist rhetoric may resonate with voters who feel economically squeezed, but it’s unlikely to be enough to win over voters concerned about the climate crisis — especially as he has voted against environmental and climate action in Parliament over 400 times in his career, a point his opponents will be sure to raise repeatedly.

    For the Conservatives, the real challenge will be how to present a climate policy that appeals to both economic conservatives, who prioritize fiscal responsibility, and environmental conservatives, who are concerned about the future of the planet.

    Poilievre will need to clearly articulate how his policies will preserve Canada’s environmental future without stifling economic growth or inflating costs for the average Canadian.

    NDP and Green Party

    A key piece of the future of climate policy in Canada will be the NDP and Green Party, who are generally considered left-of-centre parties alongside the governing Liberals.

    The NDP, which can siphon progressive votes away from the Liberals — which sometimes benefits Conservatives — have been clear as mud when it comes to their climate policy for the next election.

    NDP leader Jagmeet Singh rescinded his party’s long-standing support for the Liberal carbon rebate in April 2024, but has not yet said what his party would put in its place.

    Meanwhile, the Green Party, which has historically played a less significant role in electoral outcomes in terms of vote splitting, has generally maintained its support for the carbon rebate. Its website suggests the party supports the polluter-pays principle. However, the Greens have yet to take a clear stance on the shifting climate grounds on which this election could partially be fought.

    Political communication the key to success

    In the coming years, the future of climate policy in Canada will be less about crafting the perfect policy and more about crafting a message that addresses how people are feeling.

    The Liberal Party has been open about the demise of the carbon rebate being a combination of a lack of their own effective communication strategy, mixed with harmful disinformation campaigns that led to the demise of their signature climate policy.

    For the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Greens alike, the road to effective climate policy will lie in this communication. Political leaders will need to balance ambition and pragmatism, ensuring their policies align with Canadians’ economic interests.

    With 71 per cent of Canadians suggesting they want the next government to do more to address climate change, leaders who can articulate a vision for a sustainable, prosperous future while addressing the immediate concerns of Canadians will be the ones who have the best chance of winning the public’s trust — and the next election.

    Andrew Heffernan is affiliated with the Liberal Party of Canada.

    – ref. How political leaders communicate climate policy c should be a defining factor this election – https://theconversation.com/how-political-leaders-communicate-climate-policy-c-should-be-a-defining-factor-this-election-251990

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 4 key changes you may have missed in the new school funding agreement

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Wilson, Professor of Social Impact, University of Technology Sydney

    Queensland and the federal government have reached an agreement on school funding. This means all Australian states and territories are now signed up to new arrangements, which officially began at the start of 2025.

    The agreement follows more than a year of negotiations between the federal and state governments.

    The agreements mean government schools will receive 25% of funding from the federal government, up from 20%. Cash-strapped state and territory governments now only have to find 75% (down from 80%).

    In some good news for schools, it also means there is now a firm plan to “fully fund” public schools by 2034. This means they will get 100% of the funding recommended by the schooling resource standard (or school funding mechanism) – albeit more than a decade after it was first recommended by the Gonski review in 2011.

    Much of the debate about the agreements has understandably focused on the funding split between federal and state governments.

    But the agreements also tie vital funding for schools to specific targets and reforms for the next ten years. There is plenty of fine print.

    Here are four major changes we can expect to see in schools and classrooms around Australia.



    Read more:
    Underfunded? Overfunded? How school funding works in Australia

    1. A ‘unique’ identifier for all students

    The new agreement will see all students receive a “unique student identifier” as part of a national system.

    This is a number all students will have from the time they start school. It would follow them through school to tertiary education or any other further study or training.

    The idea was first agreed to by the former Council of Australian Governments in 2009 and is already in place for university and vocational education students.

    A long time in the planning, it was included in the last school funding agreement, which expired at the end of 2024, despite little progress.

    At the moment, education systems can easily lose track of students. For example, pre-COVID an estimated 50,000 children and young people were not officially tracked by education authorities.

    The identifier number means governments will be able to track students across school systems. For example, if they move from the public system to the private system. Or if they move states or begin homeschooling.

    The identifier will also provide a greater understanding of the pathways taken by young people after school and potentially make it easier to link senior high schooling with TAFE and other vocational studies.

    Introducing a bill to set up architecture for the indentifier last year, federal Education Minister Jason Clare said it would have “robust privacy measures”, including protection under the Privacy Act.



    Read more:
    NSW has finally struck a school funding deal. What does this mean for schools and students?

    2. A new numeracy check

    Along with rolling out a well-publicised national phonics check for Year 1 (which some states are already doing), the new agreements include a numeracy check for young students.

    While numeracy is checked as part of NAPLAN in Year 3, the test was not designed to provide diagnostic data on individual students.

    The new checks will be used to identify students and schools in need of extra support.

    So far, we have few details on the design or time frames. The checks may also need significant research and development to work effectively. But existing programs (such as in South Australia) show screening checks have the potential to provide better monitoring and resourcing for student needs.

    3. A review of how school funding is calculated

    The new agreement also flags two more significant reviews.

    One will be on the way school funding is calculated – the first review since the current system was devised in 2011.

    The schooling resource standard is an estimate of how much total public funding a school needs to meet its students’ educational needs.

    In 2025, the base rates are A$13,977 for primary students and $17,565 for high school students. On top of these, there are six loadings to provide extra funding for students and schools with additional needs. This includes students with disability, Indigenous students and students in remote areas.

    But as a 2023 Productivity Commission review noted, some individual students qualify under multiple categories, and “the effects can be compounding”. This means this level of disadvantage needs more understanding and policy adjustment.

    The review will examine the methodology behind the base rate and loadings. As part of this, it will hopefully look at transparency around school funding arrangements. The Australian National Audit Office identified this as an issue as far back as 2017.

    4. A review of how schools are measured

    There will also be a review of the national Measurement Framework for Schooling in Australia. This details key performance measures for schooling, such as attendance, NAPLAN results and school completion.

    This framework usually has just minor adjustments about every couple of years. But a more significant overhaul is now in the works, with states agreeing a review will look at “possible new and updated measures”.

    These could include indicators for students’ engagement and learning growth, as well as outcomes for students with disability and the teaching workforce.

    An improved national data set holds enormous potential for addressing educational challenges, like declining participation rates, school refusal and teacher shortages.

    Elsewhere in the new agreement, states and territories also agreed to “better understand” how socioeconomic diversity and school attendance are impacting student learning. This can be seen as high-level acknowledgement the current reporting mechanisms and data on students need to improve.

    Now we need to see progress

    The new schools agreement contains some promising new measures to improve outcomes for students and teachers. But we now need to see them implemented.

    As the Productivity Commission and National Audit Office have previously noted, just because something is included in a school funding agreement, does not necessarily mean it will happen on time or as planned.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 4 key changes you may have missed in the new school funding agreement – https://theconversation.com/4-key-changes-you-may-have-missed-in-the-new-school-funding-agreement-252291

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Federal budget 2025: here’s what we know so far

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erin Cooper-Douglas, Deputy Politics + Society Editor

    The federal budget will be handed down by Treasurer Jim Chalmers at 7:30PM AEDT on Tuesday March 25.

    While the official budget papers are under lock and key until then, the government has been making spending announcements for weeks. Here’s what we know.

    Total promised spending is $29.3 billion, excluding off-budget spending on education, and over a range of forward years. Data is sourced from federal government announcements.

    – ref. Federal budget 2025: here’s what we know so far – https://theconversation.com/federal-budget-2025-heres-what-we-know-so-far-252925

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why isn’t there an opposition leader to unite Democrats in the US?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samuel Garrett, Research Associate, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney

    In just two months back in the Oval Office, President Donald Trump has tested the limits of the US Constitution, from overhauling immigration to drastically reducing the federal workforce and dismantling government agencies.

    With Republicans now in control of both the Senate and House of Representatives, Congress has so far shown little sign it will stand in Trump’s way.

    The judiciary is the other branch of government that can check the power of the president. However, the Trump administration has appeared increasingly willing to simply ignore decisions handed down by judges.

    There has also been a notable lack of unified opposition from the Democratic Party.

    Congressional Democrats are demoralised and deeply divided over how to respond to Trump. They face criticism, too, over their apparent lack of strategy.

    This has led some to ask why the United States lacks a formal political opposition leader.

    How opposition leaders operate in other countries

    In the American political system, the loser of the presidential election doesn’t retain a position as leader of the party in opposition. Instead, they tend to disappear from view.

    Kamala Harris is considering a run for governor of California — and could well attempt another run for president in 2028 or beyond. But she hasn’t remained a vocal counterpoint to Trump since he took office.

    By contrast, in countries with Westminster-style parliamentary systems, such as Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada and India, the main party not in power selects an opposition leader from among their ranks. In most countries, this position is defined by convention, not law.

    The opposition leader in many countries serves as the main face — and voice — of the party not in power. They work to keep the government accountable and are seen as the leader of an alternative government-in-waiting.

    What it takes to lead the opposition in the US

    During Trump’s first term, the Democratic speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, was widely recognised as the de facto Democratic opposition leader.

    A skilled negotiator, Pelosi was largely able to unite the Democrats behind her to lead the opposition to Trump’s legislative agenda — famously ripping up a copy of Trump’s State of the Union address on the House podium in 2020.

    As Senate majority and minority leader, Republican Senator Mitch McConnell successfully blocked swathes of legislation during Barack Obama’s presidency. He even thwarted a US Supreme Court nomination.

    In the 1980s, then-Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill led the Democratic opposition to Republican President Ronald Reagan’s domestic agenda, without resorting to obstructionism.

    However, for an opposition figure to have this level of influence, they usually need decades of experience, political skill, and a party in control of the House or Senate.

    The Democrats no longer have a majority in either chamber and are no longer led by Pelosi. Hakeem Jeffries has been the House minority leader since 2023, but without the speaker’s gavel or control of any committees, he has limited influence.

    Party discipline is typically far more unwieldy in the United States compared to other countries. In Australia, for instance, crossing the floor to vote against your own party is very rare.

    Unruly party caucuses make it significantly more difficult for a single party figurehead to emerge unless they command near-universal party loyalty and respect among their members in both chambers.

    Will Democratic cracks shatter the party?

    The Democratic caucus, already strained by Joe Biden’s late withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race, is now even more fractured.

    The Democrats continue to grapple with their resounding defeat in November, which saw the party lose ground with almost every demographic across the country. Polling shows public support for the Democrats has slumped to unprecedented lows, with just over a quarter of voters holding a positive view of the party.

    Most dramatically, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer defied fellow Democrats (including Jeffries) by voting in favour of a resolution in recent weeks to avoid a government shutdown. His decision sparked an uproar from his party colleagues.

    Visual images of the party’s disarray were also on clear display during Trump’s joint address to Congress earlier this month. While some representatives protested loudly, others followed leadership instruction to remain silent.

    Democrats were in near lock-step on almost all issues during Trump’s first term, as well as Biden’s presidency. Now, some are calling on Schumer to step aside as minority leader — and for the Democrats to coalesce behind a younger, more outspoken leader such as Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

    Where next for the party?

    In the fractious debates now consuming the party, some see parallels with the emergence of the Tea Party movement within the Republican Party during Barack Obama’s first term in office.

    The current Democratic division could result in the emergence of a stronger dissident faction within the party. And this could push a harder line in opposition to Trump, no longer toeing the line from party leadership.

    Yet, while the political outlook for Democrats may appear bleak, electoral turnarounds can happen quickly in the United States.

    Few expected a demoralised Democratic party to turn John Kerry’s heavy defeat to George W Bush in 2004 into a generational victory just four years later. Similarly, after Obama decisively won reelection against Mitt Romney in 2012, few Republicans could have predicted they’d soon be back in power with Trump.

    But, as was the case 20 years ago, the soul-searching process will be painful for the Democrats. Whether it’s Ocasio-Cortez or another figure, the 2026 midterm elections are likely to be the best opportunity for a new central leader to emerge on the national stage.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why isn’t there an opposition leader to unite Democrats in the US? – https://theconversation.com/why-isnt-there-an-opposition-leader-to-unite-democrats-in-the-us-252384

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Mystery solved: our tests reveal the tiny algae killing fish and harming surfers on SA beaches

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shauna Murray, Professor; Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney

    Anthony Rowland

    Confronting images of dead seadragons, fish and octopuses washed up on South Australian beaches – and disturbing reports of “more than 100” surfers and beachgoers suffering flu-like symptoms after swimming or merely breathing in sea spray – attracted international concern last week.

    Speculation about the likely cause ranged from pollution and algae to unusual bacterial infections or viruses. Today we can reveal the culprit was a tiny – but harmful – type of planktonic algae called Karenia mikimotoi.

    The SA government sent us water samples from Waitpinga Beach, Petrel Cove Beach, Encounter Bay Boat Ramp and Parsons Headland on Tuesday. We studied the water under the microscope and extracted DNA for genetic analysis.

    Our results revealed high numbers of the tiny harmful algal species – each just 20 microns in diameter (where one micron is one thousandth of a millimetre). While relatively common in Australian coastal waters, blooms of K. mikimotoi occur only sporadically. But similar harmful algal blooms and fish kills due to K. mikimotoi have happened in the past, such as the 2014 bloom in Coffin Bay, SA. And this latest one won’t be the last.

    Sick surfers and dead marine life from strange sea foam (ABC News)

    Harmful algal blooms

    Single-celled, microbial algae occur naturally in seawater all over the world.

    They are also called phytoplankton, because they float in the water column and photosynthesise like plants. “Phyto” comes from the Greek word for plant and “plankton” comes from the Greek word for wanderer, which relates to their floating movement with ocean currents and tides.

    Like plants on land, the microalgae or phytoplankton in the ocean capture sunlight and produce up to half the oxygen in our atmosphere. There are more than 100,000 different species of microalgae. Every litre of seawater will normally contain a mixed group of these different microalgae species.

    But under certain conditions, just a single species of microalgae can accumulate in one area and dominate over the others. If we are unlucky, the dominant species may be one that produces a toxin or has a harmful effect.

    This so-called “harmful algal bloom” can cause problems for people and for marine life such as fish, invertebrates such as crabs, and even marine mammals such as whales and seals.

    There are hundreds of different species of harmful algae. Each produces its own type of toxin with a particular toxic effect.

    Most of these toxic chemical compounds produced by harmful algae are quite well known, including neurotoxins that affect the brain. But others are more complicated, and the mechanisms of toxicity are poorly understood. This can make it more difficult to understand the factors leading to the deaths of fish and other marine life. Unfortunately, the toxins from K. mikimotoi fall into this latter category.

    Introducing Karenia mikimotoi

    Karenia mikimotoi under the microscope.
    Shauna Murray

    The species responsible for recent events in SA beaches, K. mikimotoi, causes harmful algal blooms in Asia, Europe, South Africa and South America, as well as Australia and New Zealand. These blooms all caused fish deaths, and some also caused breathing difficulties among local beachgoers.

    The most drastic of these K. mikimotoi blooms have occurred in China over the past two decades. In 2012, more than 300 square kilometres of abalone farms were affected, causing about A$525 million in lost production.

    Explaining the toxic effects

    Microalgae can damage the gills of fish and shellfish, preventing them from breathing. This is the main cause of death. But some studies have also found damage to the gastrointestinal tracts and livers of fish.

    Tests using fish gill cells clearly show the dramatic toxic effect of K. mikimotoi. When the fish gill cells were exposed to intact K. mikimotoi cells, after 3.5 hours more than 80% of the fish cells had died.

    Fortunately, the toxin does not persist in the environment after the K. mikimotoi cells are dead. So once the bloom is over, the marine environment can recover relatively quickly.

    Its toxicity is partly due to the algae’s production of “reactive oxygen species”, reactive forms of oxygen molecules which can cause the deaths of cells in high doses. K. mikimotoi cells may also produce lipid (fat) molecules that cause some toxic effects.

    Finally, a very dense bloom of microalgae can sometimes reduce the amount of dissolved oxygen in the water column, which means there is less oxygen for other marine life.

    The human health effects are not very well known but probably relate to the reactive oxygen species being an irritant.

    K. mikimitoi cells can also produce “mucilage”, a type of thick, gluey substance made of complex sugars, which can accumulate bacteria inside it. This can cause “sea foam”, which was evident on beaches last week.

    South Australia’s marine emblem, the leafy seadragon, washed up dead on the beach.
    Anthony Rowland

    Unanswered questions remain

    A question for many people is whether increasing water temperatures make blooms of K. mikimotoi more likely.

    Another concern is whether nutrient runoff from farms, cities and aquaculture could cause more harmful algal blooms.

    Unfortunately, for Australia at least, the answer to these questions is we don’t know yet. While we know some harmful algal blooms do increase when nutrient runoff is higher, others actually prefer fewer nutrients or colder temperatures.

    We do know warmer water species seem to be moving further south along the Australian coastline, changing phytoplankton species abundance and distribution.

    While some microalgal blooms can cause bioluminescence that is beautiful to watch, others such as K. mikimotoi can cause skin and respiratory irritations.

    If you notice discoloured water, fish deaths or excessive sea foam along the coast or in an estuary, avoid fishing or swimming in the area and notify local primary industry or environmental authorities in your state.

    Shauna Murray receives funding from the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation, the New South Wales Recreational Fisheries Trust, the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, and the Storm and Flood Industry Recovery Program. She is President of the Austalasian Society of Phycology and Aquatic Botany and past chair of the NSW Shellfish Committee.

    Greta Gaiani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Mystery solved: our tests reveal the tiny algae killing fish and harming surfers on SA beaches – https://theconversation.com/mystery-solved-our-tests-reveal-the-tiny-algae-killing-fish-and-harming-surfers-on-sa-beaches-252810

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Synchronised bleaching: Ningaloo and the Great Barrier Reef are bleaching in unison for the first time

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Zoe Richards, Senior Research Fellow in Marine Biology, Curtin University

    Ningaloo Reef from the air. Violeta Brosig/Shutterstock

    This summer, an intense marine heatwave struck off northwestern Australia, driving sea surface temperatures up to 4°C above the summer average. The large mass of warm water has slowly moved south from the Kimberley region and through the Pilbara, leaving a wave of underwater destruction behind. Now Ningaloo Reef is bleaching in earnest.

    The Great Barrier Reef is bleaching too in the waters from Cape York down to Townsville.

    This appears to be the first time these two World Heritage-listed reefs have bleached in unison. Bleaching may also hit the World Heritage reef at Shark Bay in Western Australia.

    How bad is it? I have just returned from Ningaloo Reef, where I saw widespread bleaching and the first signs of coral mortality. Up to 90% of the coral found in shallow areas of the northern lagoon had bleached. Bleaching doesn’t automatically mean death, but it severely weakens the coral and jeopardises survival.

    At Ningaloo and further south, the heatwave is still unfolding. In coming months, we can expect to see some coral mortality, while other corals will survive the bleaching in poor health only to succumb to disease or other threats such as Drupella (coral-eating snails). Other corals may survive but struggle to reproduce, but some particularly hardy corals with the right combination of genes for surviving this event are expected to live on.

    Why is this happening? No surprises here: our greenhouse gas emissions trap more heat in the atmosphere. Over 90% of the heat pours into the oceans, pushing surface and deep water temperatures higher for longer periods of time.

    How bad has the heat been?

    Coral can tolerate brief periods of higher temperatures. But in response to prolonged heat stress, coral polyps expel their symbiotic zooxanthellae algae. They appear to do this to avoid further tissue damage from toxic reactive oxygen molecules which build up as the coral begins to stress. But these microalgae supply sugary food to the coral polyps in exchange for a home. Without these nutrients, the coral can starve.

    Heat stress is tracked using a measure called “degree heating weeks” (DHW) – essentially, how much above-average heat has built up in an area over the previous three months. Bleaching can begin at four DWH, while eight DHW can kill some corals.

    At Ningaloo, the heat has been off the charts – levels of up to 16 DHW have been recorded, the highest on record for this location.

    On the Great Barrier Reef, bleaching is underway in the northernmost section. This is the sixth bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef this decade. Early data suggests there is severe heat in places, ranging from six to 13 DHW in intensity and alerts remain for more heat and bleaching to come.

    Bleaching is usually worst for corals growing in shallow water, such as the calm lagoons created by fringing or barrier reefs. Lagoons often have clear waters with high light penetration and limited flushing of water.

    Ningaloo in hot water

    Over ten days, we recorded the health and type of every coral we saw at 21 sites along Ningaloo Reef, from Coral Bay to the northern tip of North West Cape and into Exmouth Gulf.

    The worst affected area that we observed was a 30 km stretch at the northern end of the North West Cape, the peninsula along which Ningaloo Reef runs. Here, we saw mass bleaching – up to 90% of corals partly or fully bleaching and some corals were already dying.

    Fast-growing corals from the Acroporid and Pocilloporid families were hard hit, as often seen in other bleaching events. But we also saw slower-growing and normally hardy corals bleaching, such Lobophyllia, Favites and Goniastrea.

    Even the massive Porites corals in the lagoons were suffering. These giant boulder-like corals are the old growth and sentinels of the reef. Many of these ordinarily resilient corals are hundreds of years old and have survived past smaller bleaching events. But this time, they too are severely suffering.

    Not even ocean-facing corals exposed to more water flow were safe. We found 30 to 50% of the corals on the reef slope were bleached to some degree. Coral diseases such as white band disease were already affecting many flat plate corals. These diseases often follow marine heatwaves, as they take advantage of coral’s weakened immune systems and the disruption of the symbiotic relationship between coral polyps and their algae.

    The timing is especially bad for Ningaloo’s corals, which usually spawn around five days after the March full moon, which fell on March 19 this year. By contrast, corals on the Great Barrier Reef tend to spawn between October and December.

    For the reef to recover quickly, it needs yearly influxes of new coral recruits. But if corals are struggling to survive, there is a risk they will not be fit enough to reproduce. Corals take three to six years to become reproductively viable and if bleaching impedes reproduction, it could greatly reduce the number of larvae available to replenish the reef. In addition to that, if immature corals bleach and die, there’s a risk several generations of corals could be lost before reaching maturity.

    Fortunately we did observe healthy and reproductive corals along the outer rim of the lagoon at Coral Bay, and locals have recently reported seeing spawning near Coral Bay. This suggests some coral were indeed healthy enough to spawn.

    What will happen next?

    As the southern hemisphere heads towards winter, the oceans will begin to cool off. That doesn’t mean the threat is over – oceans are only getting hotter.

    If we continue on our current path, simultaneous east and west coast bleaching events could become the new normal – and that would be devastating for our reefs, marine biodiversity, the blue economy and the wellbeing of Australians.

    Zoe Richards receives funding from the Minderoo Foundation. This work was undertaken by the Coral Conservation and Research Group at Curtin University in partnership with the Minderoo Exmouth Research Laboratory.

    – ref. Synchronised bleaching: Ningaloo and the Great Barrier Reef are bleaching in unison for the first time – https://theconversation.com/synchronised-bleaching-ningaloo-and-the-great-barrier-reef-are-bleaching-in-unison-for-the-first-time-252906

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tennis pros rally for better pay and less punishing schedules, amid wider power struggles in world sport

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eric Windholz, Associate Professor, Faculty of Law, Monash University

    Last week, the Novak Djokovic-led Professional Tennis Players Association (PTPA) announced it was suing the sport’s governing bodies – the men’s (ATP) and women’s (WTA) tours, the International Tennis Federation (ITF) and the International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA).

    The lawsuit:

    • seeks to change the prize money formula designed by the men’s and women’s tours (the PTPA says too little of the sport’s revenue goes to players)
    • aims to improve the “unsustainable” 11-month calendar and match schedules that often keep players on court well past midnight
    • alleges a “heavy-handed approach” by the ITIA
    • criticises the sport’s rankings system
    • wants to boost the number of combined men’s-women’s events.

    The union, cofounded by Djokovic five years ago, also alleges “anti-competitive practices and a blatant disregard for player welfare”.

    The lawsuit is just one example of a battle for control of international sport – the outcome of which will shape sport for years to come.

    The power of sport governing bodies

    Sport’s international governing bodies – such the International Olympic Committee, soccer’s governing body the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) and, in the case of tennis, the ATP, WTA and ITF – are masters of their domains.

    These bodies exercise great power and autonomy over the competitions they administer. They determine who competes in their competitions, when and where, as well as rules and policies.

    These rules cover tournament schedules, player eligibility and anti-doping policies. Players, teams and even countries that breach these rules are subject to penalties including expulsion from competitions.

    Governments have largely been willing partners in this. They have respected the autonomy of these governing bodies and assisted them where necessary by, for example, hosting their mega-events such as the Olympics, World Cups and Grand Slam tournaments.

    However, this is changing.

    A changing landscape

    As shown by the PTPA lawsuit, players are seeking a greater share of sports’ economic pie, better working conditions, more freedom in selecting where and when they play, and a greater say in how their sports are run.

    Private investors also are seeking to share in the money being made from sport by establishing rival competitions.

    These include the Wall Street-backed, but ultimately ill-fated, European Super League (soccer); the International Swimming League, funded by billionaire swimming fan Konstantin Grigorishin; and the Saudi-Arabia backed LIV Golf tour.

    In response, some fans and lower-level teams are organising to protect their clubs from the influx of private money.

    In the United Kingdom, this has resulted in proposed legislation to establish an independent regulator of football.

    And all of this is occurring in the shadow of a broader geopolitical restructuring in which the West’s traditional hegemony over sport is being challenged by the wealth of the Gulf states, the assertiveness of authoritarian regimes, and the emerging economies of the Global South.

    The result is a contest for control between actors and forces, both powerful and passionate.

    The outcome of this contest is important because sport is a generator of significant economic activity (a recent study estimated the global sport industry to be the ninth largest industry on earth) and an important vehicle for driving social change – both of which also make it politically important.

    What does the future hold?

    When confronted with forces for change, sport governing bodies generally go through a three-stage process of denial (rejecting the need for change), resistance (fighting the change), and adaptation (conceding some autonomy while retaining ultimate control).

    The tennis dispute is travelling this well-worn path. Tennis’s governing bodies have denied the PTPA a seat at the table, so the PTPA is now taking the matter to court (early indications are tennis’s governing bodies will fight it vigorously).

    Predicting the outcome of litigation is fraught. However, sport governing bodies do not have a strong record defending the use of their power before the courts.

    Courts are more independent and less deferential towards sport governing bodies than the political arms of government.

    Recent decisions from the Court of Justice of the European Union offer evidence of this. It applied EU competition law to constrain the power of sport governing bodies to:

    Another example comes from the United States, where the Supreme Court struck down as an antitrust (competition) law violation, rules that limited the benefits student-athletes can receive for playing.

    This litigation led the governing body of collegiate sport, the National Collegiate Athletic Association, to propose a US$2.8 billion (A$4.45 billion) settlement that will allow colleges to pay their student-athletes.

    As for tennis, settlement of the PTPA litigation is possible, notwithstanding the current rhetoric.

    Indeed, some form of adaptation of sports’ governing bodies to accommodate the various forces and interests at play is the most likely outcome.

    Eric Windholz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tennis pros rally for better pay and less punishing schedules, amid wider power struggles in world sport – https://theconversation.com/tennis-pros-rally-for-better-pay-and-less-punishing-schedules-amid-wider-power-struggles-in-world-sport-252721

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Silicosis is ruining the lungs of construction workers. An AI-powered breath test can detect it in minutes

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William Alexander Donald, Professor of Chemistry, UNSW Sydney

    Irene Miller/Shutterstock

    Silicosis is an incurable but entirely preventable lung disease. It has only one cause: breathing in too much silica dust. This is a risk in several industries, including tunnelling, stone masonry and construction.

    Just last week, ABC reported that 13 workers from tunnelling projects in Sydney have been diagnosed with silicosis. It’s yet another reminder that current diagnostic methods are limited. They often detect the disease only after the lungs already have significant damage.

    Our new study, published in the Journal of Breath Research, provides the latest results on a breath test for detecting silicosis powered by artificial intelligence (AI). It’s non-invasive and measures dozens of molecules to identify silicosis in just minutes.

    The test we’ve developed achieved over 90% accuracy in differentiating silicosis patients from healthy individuals. This is better than traditional lung function tests.

    While our test is yet to be trialled in real-world clinics, our results so far suggest breath testing could become a crucial tool in workplace health screening. Early detection would prevent suffering and disease progression, and reduce healthcare costs.

    Silicosis is a growing problem – but hard to detect

    Currently, more workers in New South Wales, elsewhere in Australia and internationally are being diagnosed with silicosis at younger ages. The Australian government has responded by banning engineered stone, but that doesn’t address ongoing risks in other industries.

    Patients with silicosis often describe a feeling like they are slowly being strangled, with every breath becoming more difficult over time. In advanced stages, silicosis can be fatal unless patients can access a lung transplant.

    The only way to stop the progression of silicosis is removing affected workers from further silica exposure. This is why diagnosing patients in the early stages – before irreversible lung damage occurs – is critical.

    However, this isn’t easy to achieve. Lung function testing and chest X-rays only identify the problem once irreversible lung damage has occurred. In some cases, patients also need CT scans and invasive biopsy to confirm diagnosis. But CT scans, although much higher resolution, also rely on visible signs of silicosis.

    And these methods are costly and take time, making it harder to easily screen the thousands of workers who could be at risk.

    This is where breath testing comes in.

    Research team members Merryn Baker (left) and Dr Laura Capasso supervise a study participant providing a breath test sample for analysis.
    Richard Freeman/UNSW

    How breath tests can detect disease

    Human breath contains hundreds of volatile organic compounds – small gas molecules that come from metabolic processes in the body, as well as the environment.

    The composition of these molecules changes in response to physiological conditions like disease. However, volatile organic compounds are often present in extremely low concentrations – we need highly sensitive technology to detect them reliably.

    Our team has developed tools that can detect volatile organic compounds at concentrations as low as parts per trillion. This is equivalent to detecting a single drop of liquid diluted in multiple Olympic-sized swimming pools.

    This level of sensitivity allows us to identify very small biochemical changes in breath. AI is key to this approach. Our machine learning model analyses breath samples to tell apart healthy individuals and those with silicosis.

    This builds on our previous work using AI to analyse blood plasma for early Parkinson’s disease detection with high accuracy and interpretability, which allows us to determine the chemical features that contribute the most to model accuracy. Interpretability refers to the ability to understand and explain how the AI model arrives at its predictions, providing insights into which data inputs are most important.

    Now, we have applied similar methods to breath analysis. Thanks to the sensitivity of our test, we could potentially detect silicosis at very early stages.

    Breath samples could be collected at scale at workplaces to monitor the health of at-risk workers.
    Richard Freeman/UNSW

    How well does it work?

    In our new study, the breath test was trialled on 31 silicosis patients and 60 healthy controls. The AI-powered model successfully distinguished silicosis cases with over 90% accuracy.

    The test takes less than five minutes per sample, making it feasible for large-scale health screening. Additionally, the test doesn’t require subjects to fast or undergo any special preparation beforehand.

    An important question in breath analysis is whether external factors, such as diet or smoking, influence test results. Our study included smokers and non-smokers in both silicosis and healthy control groups, and the test maintained high accuracy.

    Our results show great promise, but there are challenges to overcome. The test relies on highly sensitive instrumentation that, while compact (less than a cubic metre), still requires technical expertise to operate.

    The AI-powered breath test involves specialised tools to perform the analysis.
    Richard Freeman/UNSW

    Currently, breath samples are collected in clinics and transported to a lab for analysis. We hope future iterations could allow for testing in workplace settings, creating routine screening programs. Further validation in larger, diverse worker populations is also necessary before full implementation.

    The next phase of research will involve refining the AI model and expanding real-world testing to thousands of silica-exposed workers who might be at risk.

    While routine medical evaluations will still be necessary for at-risk workers, the addition of breath analysis could enable more continuous monitoring than what is currently practical. It could help detect silicosis earlier, before the symptoms become irreversible, reducing long-term health risks.

    Acknowledgements: Aruvi Thiruvarudchelvan and Jeff Gordon also contributed to this research.

    William Alexander Donald receives funding from the Australian Research Council, iCare Dust Diseases Board, Coal Services NSW Health & Safety Trust, US National Institutes of Health and several industry research contracts. He is an advisor to Preview Health and Mass Affinity. He is president of the Australian & New Zealand Society for Mass Spectrometry.

    Deborah Yates is an occupational respiratory physician and a director of Thomas-Yates Pty Ltd, a medical services company, and an expert advisor to the Asbestos & Dust Diseases Research Institute, Concord, NSW. She is an independent director of the board of the Royal Australasian College of Physicians, a global advisor to the Royal College of Physicians of London, independent member of the NSW Mine Safety Advisory Council and Councillor to the Australian Society of Salaried Medical Officers (ASMOF) of NSW, the doctors’ union. She acts also as an advisor to Tuberous Sclerosis Australia and LAM Australasia. She receives no funding for any of these roles. She has recently received funding for investigator-initiated grants from Boehringer Ingelheim and iCare NSW as well as the Coal Services Trust, and has previously participated in several industry initiated research studies into asthma and chronic cough. She is a member of the iCare Medical Advisory Panel. She has in the past acted in an advisory capacity and given paid lectures for Glaxo Smith Klein, Astra Zeneca and Boehringer Ingelheim. She has no shares in mining companies or pharmaceutical companies and is not a member of any political parties.

    Merryn Baker’s PhD research was funded by UNSW through the Scientia Scheme.

    – ref. Silicosis is ruining the lungs of construction workers. An AI-powered breath test can detect it in minutes – https://theconversation.com/silicosis-is-ruining-the-lungs-of-construction-workers-an-ai-powered-breath-test-can-detect-it-in-minutes-252640

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is hyaluronic acid – and is it OK for kids and teens to use this common skincare ingredient?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Zoe Porter, Lecturer, Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Science, Monash University

    Sabinayro/Shutterstock

    Earlier this month, Kmart pulled a “hyaluronic acid cleansing balm” from its shelves, after a teen who used the skincare product was hospitalised, reporting eye pain and blurred vision. It’s unclear what ingredient caused this reaction.

    In a statement, Kmart said it was removing the product while conducting an investigation. The retailer also said:

    We want to assure our customers that our cosmetics are designed to ensure that they comply with both Australian and European requirements on ingredients.

    Hyaluronic acid – despite the name – is a gentle ingredient commonly used in skincare products.

    But what does hyaluronic acid do to your skin as a skincare ingredient? And is it safe for tweens and teens?

    What is hyaluronic acid?

    Hyaluronic acid is a glycosaminoglycan – a sugar-based molecule found naturally in the skin, eyes, joint fluid and connective tissue.

    It plays a key role in hydrating the skin and tissues, lubricating our joints and supporting tissue repair.

    Beyond cosmetics, hyaluronic acid is used in drug delivery, regenerative medicine, wound repair, and to treat conditions such as atherosclerosis (where the arterial walls harden and narrow) and osteoarthritis (a degenerative joint disease).

    It is also a key ingredient in many eye drops and contact lens care solutions.

    How is it used in skincare?

    While the word “acid” might suggest it is harsh and potentially damaging to the skin, hyaluronic acid is not used in its acidic form in skincare products. It is usually used in its salt form, sodium hyaluronate.

    In skincare, active acids such as salicylic acid usually lower the skin’s pH and exfoliate it by breaking the bonds between dead skin cells.

    Hyaluronic acid, in contrast, is used to hydrate the skin. It is a humectant, an ingredient that attracts and retains water molecules.

    Hyaluronic acid has three qualities that make it suitable for skincare: it’s soluble (can be dissolved in water), biocompatible (meaning it’s not harmful to the body), and biodegradable (naturally breaks down into non-toxic, simpler substances).

    It is usually safe and well-tolerated, meaning it has very few side effects.

    In skincare products, hyaluronic is used in different forms. Smaller hyaluronic molecules can penetrate deeper into the skin and hydrate the lower levels. In products this is often advertised as “anti-ageing”, because it stimulates the production of collagen (a structural protein in the skin), and helps to improve elasticity and reduce the appearance of fine lines.

    Larger hyaluronic acid molecules remain on the skin’s surface and have an immediate hydrating effect, preventing water evaporation from the skin.

    Hyaluronic acid helps the skin attract and retain water molecules for hydration.
    Art_Photo/Shutterstock

    Any risks?

    Hyaluronic acid is generally a safe ingredient, even for sensitive skin. But products advertised as “hyaluronic acid skincare” may contain other ingredients which can cause irritation.

    In particular, fragrances, preservatives and surfactants (ingredients that produce foam and help wash away oil and dirt) may be safe for skin but burn or otherwise irritate the eyes.

    This is because the cornea and conjuctiva (the thin membrane covering the eye) are much more sensitive than the skin.

    How are skincare ingredients regulated?

    Unlike medicines and products used for therapeutic reasons, which are regulated by the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), general cosmetic products do not require pre-market safety testing or approval.

    Instead, companies need to register their business with the Australian Industrial Chemicals Introduction Scheme and verify that their ingredients are not banned or restricted in Australia.

    This creates a potential gap where defective products remain on the market, only to be recalled after adverse reactions occur.

    Are these products appropriate for children?

    Most scientific research on active ingredients – including hyaluronic acid – has been evaluated in older populations. This leaves a gap in understanding how they affect teen and preteen skin.

    Many products are designed for ageing and/or specific skin types, and are largely unnecessary for children and younger people.

    In some cases, they can potentially be harmful to their skin. For example, unless prescribed by a dermatologist, it’s advisable for young people to avoid retinoid products (containing retinol or retinal) as they can cause redness, peeling and drying.

    Similarly, products with alpha hydroxy acids can cause irritation, itching, redness and may worsen acne in young skin.

    So, what should younger people look for?

    Preteens and teens should avoid products containing active ingredients such as retinol, vitamin C, alpha- and beta- hydroxy acids, and peptides, as well as those labelled with terms such as anti-ageing, wrinkle-reducing, brightening, or firming.

    To keep skin clean and protected, teenagers can use a good cleanser, a simple moisturiser and a broad spectrum SPF 30 or 50 sunscreen.

    It’s best to opt for gentle, fragrance-free cleansers and moisturisers suitable for all skin types. Consulting with a pharmacist can provide personalised recommendations based on individual skin needs.

    Laurence Orlando is a council member with the Australian Society of Cosmetic Chemists.

    Zoe Porter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is hyaluronic acid – and is it OK for kids and teens to use this common skincare ingredient? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-hyaluronic-acid-and-is-it-ok-for-kids-and-teens-to-use-this-common-skincare-ingredient-252296

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Giving rivers room to move: how rethinking flood management can benefit people and nature

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christina McCabe, PhD Candidate in Interdisciplinary Ecology, University of Canterbury

    Shutterstock/S Watson

    When we think about flood management, higher stop banks, stronger levees and concrete barriers usually come to mind. But what if the best solution – for people and nature – isn’t to confine rivers, but to give them more space?

    This alternative is increasingly being considered as an approach to mitigating flood risk. But allowing rivers room to move also delivers ecological benefits far beyond flood risk reduction. It supports biodiversity, improves water quality and stores carbon.

    As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme floods, rethinking our approach to managing floodplain rivers has never been more urgent.

    Climate change, floods and river confinement

    Climate change is amplifying flood risks worldwide, and Aotearoa New Zealand is no exception. Large floods are expected to become much more frequent and severe, threatening communities, infrastructure and ecosystems.

    Many of these risks are made worse by past management decisions that have artificially confined rivers within narrow channels, cutting them off from their natural floodplains.

    Floodplain river systems have historically been dynamic, shifting across landscapes over time. But extensive stop banks, modification of river channels and land development have restricted this natural variability.

    Strangling rivers in this way transfers and heightens flood risks downstream by forcing water through confined channels at greater speeds. It also degrades ecosystems that rely on the natural ebb and flow of river processes.

    The Waiau River, a gravel-bed braided river in the South Island, has been constrained by land development, primarily for agriculture.
    Background satellite image: Google (c) 2025 Airbus, CC BY-SA

    Giving rivers space to roam

    The idea of allowing rivers to reclaim space on their floodplains is not new.

    In the Netherlands, the Room for the River programme was a response to flooding in 1995 that led to large-scale evacuations of people and cattle. In England, predictions that economic risks associated with flooding will increase 20-fold within this century ignited the Making Space for Water strategy.

    However, these initiatives typically remain focused on flood protection, overlooking opportunities to maximise ecological benefits. Our new research shows that well-designed approaches can deliver ecological gains alongside flood protection.

    This is crucial because floodplain river systems are among the most valuable ecosystems. They provide about a quarter of all land-based ecosystem services such as water retention and pollutant filtration, as well as educational, recreational and cultural benefits.

    Managing rivers for variability

    A fundamental shift in river management involves acknowledging and accommodating natural variability. Floodplain rivers are not static: they change across landscapes and through time, responding to seasonal flows, sediment movement and ecological processes.

    Braided rivers are an example of floodplain rivers that have natural variability and diverse habitat types.
    Angus McIntosh, CC BY-SA

    Our research synthesises the ecological processes that are enabled when floodplain rivers have room to move.

    Rivers that are not unnaturally confined are typically more physically complex. For instance, along with the main river channel, they might have smaller side channels, or areas where the water pools and slows, springs popping up from below ground to re-join the surface waters, or ponds on the floodplain.

    A diverse range of habitats supports a rich variety of plant and animal life. Even exposed gravel, made available in rivers that flow freely, provides critical nesting sites for endangered birds.

    Biodiversity is not one-dimensional. Instead, it exists and operates at multiple scales, from a small floodplain pond to a whole river catchment or wider. In a dynamic, ever-changing riverscape, we might find the genetic composition of a species varying in different parts of the river, or the same species of fish varying in their body size, depending on the habitat conditions.

    These examples of natural biological variability enable species and ecosystems to be resilient in the face of uncertain future conditions.

    Rivers that have room to move on their floodplains are highly dynamic. This diagram shows the main types of ecological variability in a free-flowing river: physical variability, habitat heterogeneity and variable ecosystem processes.
    Adapted from McCabe et al. 2025 Nature Water, CC BY-SA

    At a larger scale, the type and number of species that live in different floodplain river habitats also varies. This diversity of biological communities produces variation in the functions ecosystems perform across the river, such as the uptake of nutrients or processing of organic matter. This can even help to diversify food webs.

    These variations mean not all species or groups of species in the river will be vulnerable to the same disturbances – such as droughts or floods – at the same time. This is because plants and animals in rivers have evolved to take advantage of long-term rhythms of floods and droughts in different ways.

    For instance, the cottonwood poplars of the southwest United States time their seed release with the highly predictable rhythms of snowmelt-driven spring floods in that part of the world. In Aotearoa New Zealand, whitebait fish species typically deposit their eggs during high autumn flows, which then get transported to sea as larvae during high winter flows.

    Some animals need multiple habitats within the river for different stages of life. Other creatures travel from afar to use river floodplains for only a short time. The latter includes the banded dotterel (Charadrius bicinctus), endemic to Aotearoa New Zealand. This bird travels as far as 1,700km to nest on braided-river gravels each spring. Banded dotterels are in decline, and they rely on habitats provided by rivers that have space to roam.

    The endangered black-fronted tern (Chlidonias albostriatus) uses gravel bar habitats on river floodplains for nesting.
    Angus McIntosh, CC BY-SA

    A call for more sustainable river management

    As climate change accelerates, we must rethink how we manage our waterways. Reinforcing levees and deepening channels may seem like logical responses to increased flood risk, but these approaches often exacerbate long-term vulnerabilities and transfer risk elsewhere.

    We call for practitioners to broaden the scope of values included in river management policy and programmes to include ecological variability.

    Nature-based solutions are approaches that seek to benefit both people and nature. By working with nature rather than against it, we can create landscapes that are more resilient, adaptive, and supportive of both people and biodiversity.

    It’s time to embrace a new paradigm for river management – one that sees rivers not as threats to be controlled, but as lifelines to be protected and restored.

    Christina McCabe receives funding through an Aho Hīnātore doctoral research scholarship at the University of Canterbury.

    Jonathan Tonkin receives funding from a Rutherford Discovery Fellowship and the Centre of Research Excellence Te Pūnaha Matatini. He also receives funding from the Antarctic Science Platform and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment.

    – ref. Giving rivers room to move: how rethinking flood management can benefit people and nature – https://theconversation.com/giving-rivers-room-to-move-how-rethinking-flood-management-can-benefit-people-and-nature-251225

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor gains big lead in a Morgan poll, but drops back in YouGov

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    A national Morgan poll, conducted March 10–16 from a sample of 2,097, gave Labor a 54.5–45.5 lead by headline respondent preferences, a three-point gain for Labor since the March 3–9 Morgan poll. This is Labor’s largest lead in a Morgan poll since August 2023.

    Primary votes were 34% Coalition (down three), 32.5% Labor (up 2.5), 13.5% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (steady), 10.5% independents (steady) and 4.5% others (up 0.5). By 2022 election flows, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a 2.5-point gain for Labor.

    By 50.5–35, respondents thought the country was going in the wrong direction (51.5–33 previously). However, Morgan’s consumer confidence index slid 3.1 points to 83.8, its lowest this year.

    Voters were blaming Donald Trump for the stock market falls, and this was hurting the Coalition. The stock market had a better week last week, but Trump is likely to impose more tariffs on April 2.

    Morgan is a volatile poll that reacts more to news events than other polls. This poll was taken in the week Trump imposed his steel and aluminium tariffs on Australia. It’s likely that this poll is a pro-Labor outlier, with other polls not giving Labor big leads. Here is the poll graph.

    The ABC’s Patricia Karvelas wrote on March 17 that a Talbot Mills poll, conducted March 6–12 from a sample of 1,051, asked about Trump’s ratings with Australians for his performance as US president.

    Trump was down six points since February to net -14 approval (51% disapprove, 37% approve). There was a six-point increase in strongly disapprove to 40%, with strongly approve down one to 15%. By 65–22, respondents disapproved of the US imposing tariffs on Australia.

    Coalition gains in YouGov poll for a 50–50 tie

    A national YouGov poll, conducted March 14–19 from a sample of 1,500, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the March 7–13 YouGov poll.

    Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (down 0.5), 7% One Nation (down 0.5), 1% Trumpet of Patriots (steady), 8% independents (down one) and 3% others (up one). YouGov is using weaker preference flows for Labor than occurred in 2022, and this poll would give Labor about a 51.5–48.5 lead by 2022 flows.

    Albanese’s net approval was down three points to -9, with 50% dissatisfied and 41% satisfied. Dutton’s net approval was up one point to -5. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 45–40 (45–39 previously).

    Essential poll tied at 47–47 but Albanese’s ratings jump

    A national Essential poll, conducted March 12–16 from a larger than normal sample of 2,256, had a 47–47 tie including undecided by respondent preferences (48–47 to the Coalition in early March).

    Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 29% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (down one), 8% One Nation (steady), 1% Trumpet of Patriots (steady compared with UAP), 9% for all Others (down one) and 6% undecided (up one). By 2022 preference flows, this poll would give Labor about a 50.5–49.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.

    Albanese’s net approval jumped nine points to +1, with 46% approving and 45% disapproving. This is Albanese’s first positive net approval in Essential since October 2023. Dutton’s net approval dropped two points to -5, his worst since January 2024.

    By 48–35, respondents thought Australia was on the wrong track (49–34 previously).

    On climate change, 54% (down five since October 2021) said “climate change is happening and is caused by human activity”, while 35% (up five) thought “we are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”. This is the lowest lead for human activity in Essential’s graph which goes back to 2016.

    On addressing climate change, 35% (up two since November) thought Australia is not doing enough, 34% (down three) doing enough and 19% (steady) doing too much.

    By 39–30, voters opposed the Coalition’s policy of removing working from home provisions for public service workers. By 39–33, voters opposed Australia sending troops to Ukraine.

    By 53–33, voters thought Trump’s presidency would have a negative impact on the US economy, by 62–24 negative for the global economy and by 61–20 negative for the Australian economy.

    Labor gains lead in a Redbridge poll

    A national Redbridge poll, conducted March 3–11 from a sample of 2,007, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a 2.5-point gain for Labor since the previous Redbridge poll in early February. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down three), 32% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (up one) and 19% for all Others (up one).

    By 51–29, respondents thought things were headed in the wrong direction (49–32 in November 2024).

    There has been more criticism of AUKUS from the left since Trump’s election, but by 51–19 respondents said AUKUS makes Australia safer (49–19 in July 2024). There was pro-AUKUS movement on other questions.

    Polls in Greens target seats

    The Poll Bludger reported last Tuesday on polls of seats either held by the Greens or plausible targets for them. These polls were taken by Insightfully for the right-wing Advance, and first reported by the News Corp tabloids. Sample sizes were 600 per seat with no fieldwork dates provided. Seat polls are unreliable.

    The Greens hold three Queensland federal seats (Griffith, Ryan and Brisbane), and one Victorian seat (Melbourne). On the primary votes provided, the Greens would retain Griffith, Ryan would be line-ball between the Greens and Liberal National Party. Brisbane would be gained by Labor.

    In Victoria, the Greens would hold Melbourne and gain Macnamara from Labor, while Labor would retain Wills against a Greens challenge.

    Unemployment steady despite jobs fall

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported last Thursday that the unemployment rate was 4.1% in February, unchanged from January. This was despite a 52,800 decrease in jobs that didn’t affect unemployment owing to a lower participation rate.

    The employment population ratio (the percentage of eligible Australians that are employed) was down 0.3% since a record high in January to 64.1%.

    WA election final lower house seats

    At the March 8 Western Australian election, Labor won 46 of the 59 lower house seats (down seven from the record landslide in 2021), the Liberals seven (up five) and the Nationals six (up two). Comparing this election with 2017, which was a big win for Labor, Labor is up five seats, the Liberals down six and the Nationals up one.

    In 2017, Labor won 69.5% of lower house seats, in 2021 90% and in 2025 78%. If the WA lower house had as many seats as the federal House of Representatives (150), Labor would have won over 100 seats in all three elections.

    In the upper house, 75.7% of enrolled voters has been counted, compared with 82.7% in the lower house. On current figures, Labor is likely to win 16 of the 37 seats, the Liberals ten, the Greens four, the Nationals two, and One Nation, Legalise Cannabis and Australian Christians one each.

    Two seats are unclear, with an independent group (0.47 quotas) and Animal Justice (0.45) just ahead of One Nation’s second candidate (0.40). As the count has progressed, the Liberals have dropped and the Greens have risen. ABC election analyst Antony Green said the inclusion of below the line votes could put Labor’s 16th seat in doubt, with the Greens possibly winning five seats.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Labor gains big lead in a Morgan poll, but drops back in YouGov – https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-big-lead-in-a-morgan-poll-but-drops-back-in-yougov-252380

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: I was a music AI sceptic – until I actually used it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexis Weaver, Associate Lecturer in Music Technology, University of Sydney

    Shutterstock

    With artificial intelligence programs that can now generate entire songs on demand, you’d be forgiven for thinking AI might eventually lead to the decline of human-made music.

    But AI can still be used ethically to help human musicians challenge themselves and grow their music-making abilities. I should know. As a composer and music educator, I was an AI sceptic until I started working with the technology.

    Two sides of the argument

    If you can write a text prompt, you can use AI to create a track in any genre, for almost any musical application.

    Besides generating full tracks, music AI can be used in sound analysis, noise removal, mixing and mastering, and to create entire sound palettes (such as for use in video games and podcasts). Suno, Beatoven, AIVA, Soundraw and Udio are some of the companies currently leading in the AI music space.

    In many cases, the outputs don’t have to be excellent, they just have to be good enough, and they can undercut the services of real musicians and sound designers.

    The music industry is understandably concerned. In April 2024, the US-based Artist Rights Alliance published an open letter, signed by more than 200 artists, calling for developers to stop training their AIs with copyrighted work (as this would allow companies to emulate artists’ music and image, and therefore deplete the royalties paid to artists).

    At the same time, music AI companies claim to lower the barrier to making music, such as by removing the need for physical equipment and traditional music education.

    In an interview from January, Suno’s chief executive Mikey Shulman said:

    it’s not really enjoyable to make music now. It takes a lot of time. It takes a lot of practice […] the majority of people don’t enjoy the majority of the time they spend making music.

    This is far from the message I want to send my students. However, it does unfortunately reflect the increasing pressure musicians feel to master their craft as soon as possible, in an increasingly fast-paced world that’s geared towards an intangible end goal, rather than enjoying the process of making mistakes and learning.

    From a sceptic to a reluctant advocate

    In 2023, I was commissioned by the Sydney Opera House create a new work with Sydney-based design company Kopi Su, and to develop a new generative music AI tool in the process. This tool, called Koup Music, is now in beta testing.

    I accepted the opportunity – but with quite a few hesitations, as I wasn’t really interested in working with AI. Would this be a huge waste of time, or end with my data added to some mysterious AI data pool? Or would it open up new creative directions for me?

    The tool was based on a text-to-image diffusion model called Riffusion. It takes a text prompt and generates a spectrogram, which is a visual representation of the various frequencies in an audio signal as they change through time. This is then converted to audio.

    First, I would upload my own recorded sample to the AI, and then choose a text prompt to transform it into a new five-second sample.

    For example, I could upload a short vocal melody and ask the AI to turn it into an insect, or re-contextualise it for a “hip hop” style. Sometimes the generated samples sounded very similar to my own voice (due to the vocals I uploaded).

    The following insect voice output became the subject of the musical piece below it.

    Somewhere between a voice and an insect.
    ·

    At the time of the project, the outputs could only be 5 or 10 seconds long – not long enough to make a full track. I considered this a positive, as it meant I had to incorporate the samples into my own larger work.

    Some samples were catchy. Some were funny. Others were boring. Some came out with scratchy, harsh timbres. The imperfection of it all gave me permission to have fun.

    I focused on generating separate musical elements with my text prompts, rather than fully arranged samples. A generated drum beat or melody line could be enough to inspire a completely new musical track in a style I would never have attempted otherwise.

    This output was used in the track How Things Grow.
    ·

    Sometimes, one generated sample was enough. Other times, I challenged myself to use only AI-generated sounds to create a full track. In these cases, I used techniques such as filtering and looping small snippets to tease out the sounds I wanted.

    For instance, I used the following audio samples to create the track below:

    These snippets were used in the track Boom Boom Boom.
    ·

    The process felt like a collaboration – like I was making music with a kooky colleague. This took away the pressure to make “perfect” music, and instead allowed me to focus on new creative possibilities.

    My takeaways

    I’ve concluded it’s not a bad idea to know what large music AIs are capable of. We can use them to further our own musical understanding, such as by studying how they use stylistic trends and mixing techniques, or how they translate musical ideas to suggest different genres.

    For me, the key to quashing my AI scepticism was using an AI that didn’t take over the entire working process. I remained flexible to its suggestions, while using my own knowledge to retain creative control.

    My experience isn’t isolated. Multiple studies have found that users of music AIs reported feeling satisfied with programs that allowed them to retain a sense of ownership over the composing process.

    The connecting factor across these projects was that the AI did not generate entire musical works in one go. Instead, a limited amount of musical information was generated (such as rhythms, melodies or chords), allowing the user to dictate the final result.

    The beauty in human imperfection

    Despite Shulman’s claims, the key to a meaningful relationship with music AI is to work alongside it – not to let it do all the work.

    Do I think every music student should start incorporating AI into their daily practice? No. But under the right circumstances, it can provide the tools to produce something truly creative.

    Making “imperfect” art that takes time – and hard work – is the price of being human. And I’m grateful for that.

    ·

    The author received a once-off financial commission from the Sydney Opera House to develop musical work made using the Koup Music AI, which premiered at the Sydney Opera House through a livestream broadcast on July 15th, 2023. After this initial performance the author continued to test the AI model for artistic research purposes. No funding was received to help prepare the manuscripts or research associated with this article. The author will not benefit financially from any promotion of the Koup Music tool, and has never received payment from Kopi Su.

    – ref. I was a music AI sceptic – until I actually used it – https://theconversation.com/i-was-a-music-ai-sceptic-until-i-actually-used-it-252499

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  • MIL-Evening Report: This week’s federal budget will focus on cost-of-living measures – and a more uncertain global economy

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

    Treasurer Jim Chalmers will bring down the federal budget on Tuesday.

    It’s likely most of the major spending initiatives have already been announced. An extra A$8.5 billion in spending on Medicare will aim to ensure nine out of ten GP visits will be bulk billed by 2030. Queensland’s Bruce Highway is to be upgraded with the Albanese Government providing $7.2 billion of the $9 billion cost.

    In a speech last week, Chalmers promised “meaningful and substantial” cost-of-living relief.

    He also stressed the global economy is more volatile and unpredictable. He said the budget bottom line would be little changed from the mid-year update released in December, when the deficit was forecast to be $26.9 billion this financial year.

    It was a comprehensive dress rehearsal for tomorrow evening’s budget speech.

    No rabbits out of the hat

    Australian budgets today are well signposted in advance in speeches such as this. That is deliberate. It is seen as a mark of responsible fiscal management to have few surprises, either positive or negative.

    In past decades, treasurers were prone to announcing surprise spending measures. No longer. The rationale for rejecting the “rabbit out of a hat” approach was spelled out by former treasurer Wayne Swan in his 2008 budget lockup press conference: he said the budget had to be “responsible”. Chalmers was Swan’s deputy chief of staff at the time.

    This means calls by economists such as Chris Richardson and Ken Henry for major tax reform are unlikely to be heeded.

    Bracket creep (increases in tax revenues as taxpayers move into higher tax brackets) will do most of the work in the very gradual windback of the budget deficit. In the mid-year budget update, it was projected to take a decade to return the budget to balance.



    Read more:
    If Treasury forecasts are right, it could be a decade before Australia is ‘back in black’

    Good luck rather than good management

    Not that a balanced or surplus budget is a sign of good budgeting. The driver of recent budget surpluses under both Labor and Coalition governments has not been government policy but stronger than expected commodity prices and exports. They have been accidental, not deliberate.

    While deficits add to debt, imposing costs on future generations, what matters is whether the debts can be paid. If the economy grows faster than the rate of debt, the situation is manageable. So we are likely to see a chart in Tuesday’s budget papers showing this, with debt gradually declining as a share of Gross Domestic Product over time.

    However, these forecasts for the bottom line do not include off-budget items such as special green energy funds or student debt write-offs that total close to $100 billion, according to Deloitte Access Economics.

    This is because the budget covers only the “general government sector” – public service departments and agencies and the defence force. It is not the whole of the public sector, which includes commercial or financial entities like government business enterprises, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and various funds.

    On Sunday, the government announced further cost-of-living relief with an extension of electricity rebates, giving households another $150 this year. This will avoid headline inflation rebounding above 3%, as the Reserve Bank is currently forecasting.

    The energy rebate last year cost the budget an estimated $3.5 billion in 2024-25. Extending it for six months will cost $1.8 billion. Chalmers has also promised another reduction in the maximum cost of prescription medicines to $25.

    In December’s budget update, the unemployment rate was forecast to be around 4½% in mid-2025 and stay around that level for the next couple of years. Given the unemployment rate was steady at 4.1% in February, that forecast may be lowered.

    Inflation was forecast to stay below 3%.

    The increasing risk of a global trade war will see some reduction in forecasts for global and Australian economic growth. The OECD has lowered its forecasts for global growth and emphasised the international outlook is highly uncertain.

    This means the Australian budget forecasts are more likely than usual to be wrong. We just don’t know in which direction they will be wrong – will they be too optimistic or pessimistic?

    What will it mean for interest rates?

    The Reserve Bank board is unlikely to feel it has enough additional information to cut interest rates again at the April 1 meeting.

    Nonetheless, the government will be constrained in how much support it can provide households. It does not want undermine its narrative of future interest rate cuts by stimulating household spending too much.

    Something to watch for will be “decisions taken but not yet announced”. These are additional initiatives the government will announce during the election campaign. They will be able to answer the “where’s the money coming from?” question by saying they are already included in the budget.

    Finally, will there be increases in defence spending? US President Donald Trump is pressing US allies to do this. Trouble is, defence spending does not address the political problem of cost-of-living pressures – if anything it adds to them.

    A potential way out is for government to support more defence spending, but only “in principle”, leaving the details for future budgets. That would help manage both domestic and international pressures.

    John Hawkins was a formerly a senior economist at the Treasury and Reserve Bank.

    Stephen Bartos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. This week’s federal budget will focus on cost-of-living measures – and a more uncertain global economy – https://theconversation.com/this-weeks-federal-budget-will-focus-on-cost-of-living-measures-and-a-more-uncertain-global-economy-252515

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trouble at Tesla and protests against Trump’s tariffs suggest consumer boycotts are starting to bite

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erin O’Brien, Associate Professor, School of Government and International Relations, Griffith University

    Getty Images

    When the United States starts a trade war with your country, how do you fight back? For individuals, one option is to wage a personal trade war and boycott products from the US.

    President Donald Trump has said no nation will be exempt from his tariffs, and this includes both Australia and New Zealand. His tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports, in particular, could hurt the sector in Australia, while New Zealand’s meat and wine exports to the US could also feel the effect.

    So far, political leaders have responded differently. Canada, Mexico and the European Union have imposed reciprocal tariffs on the US, while Australia has indicated it will not retaliate.

    But whether governments choose to push back or not, citizens in those and other countries are making their own stands. This includes artists such as renowned pianist András Schiff, who has cancelled his upcoming US tour.

    Most notably, collective outrage at the US president has led to a growing global boycott of Elon Musk’s Tesla due to his role in the Trump administration. Sales of new Tesla vehicles are down 72% in Australia and 76% in Germany. The share price has dropped by more than 50% since December 2024, with calls for Musk to step down as chief executive.

    Some governments are even encouraging consumer boycotts. The Canadian government, for example, has urged citizens to “fight back against the unjustified US tariffs” by purchasing Canadian products and holidaying in Canada.

    Canadians are clearly embracing this advice. Road trips to the US have dropped by more than 20% in the past month and US liquor brands have been removed from some Canadian stores altogether.

    This rise in calls for boycotts of American brands and companies is unsurprising in the Trump 2.0 era, where the lines between government and corporate America have become increasingly blurred.

    Political change by proxy

    When people want to protest a government policy, but have no political leverage because they’re not citizens of that country, boycotting corporations or brands gives them a voice. These actions are sometimes called “surrogate” or “proxy” boycotts.

    This form of “political consumerism”, where individuals align their consumption choices with their values, is now one of the most common forms of political participation in western liberal democracies.

    When France opposed the war in Iraq in 2003, US supporters of the war aimed boycotts at French imports. Consumers in the US, United Kingdom and elsewhere have boycotted Russian goods over the invasion of Ukraine, and targeted Israel over its military action and policies in Gaza and the West Bank.

    Most famously, protests against the apartheid regime in South Africa from the 1950s through to the 1990s helped isolate and eventually change its government.

    The current boycotts are not just protesting Trump’s trade war, of course. They are also about the role of unelected leaders from the corporate world, such as Musk and the heads of the Big Tech and social media companies, and their perceived self-interest and influence.

    Trump has responded angrily to consumer boycotts, calling the actions against Tesla “illegal”, which they are not. Indeed, political leaders like Trump often argue that consumer action, rather than government regulation, should be relied on to ensure corporations conform to social expectations.

    Ukrainians demonstrate in front of the Lukoil headquarters in Belgium over European imports of Russian fossil fuels, 2022.
    Getty Images

    How to wage a personal trade war

    Consumer boycotts do create change under certain conditions – typically when there is a contained problem that the targeted corporation has the power to solve.

    For example, consumer boycotts against Nestlé in the 1970s over false and dangerous marketing of powdered milk for infants led to changes in the firm’s marketing approaches. Boycotts of Nike products over sweatshop conditions for workers had a direct impact on the company’s bottom line and led to improvements.

    Things may still need to improve at Nestlé and Nike, but these boycotts show consumer pressure can catalyse corporate action. However, it is much harder – though not impossible – for boycott campaigns to succeed when the target is a government.

    Consumers boycotting American products can amplify the impact of their protest by also lobbying retailers. For example, if enough consumers stop buying a bottle of soft drink from the US, major supermarkets like Woolworths and Foodstuffs will stop buying thousands of bottles.

    There are also other ways to “vote with your wallet”. People can engage in “political investorism” by using their power as a shareholder, bank customer or pension-fund member to express their political views.

    After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for example, investors sought to divest from Russian companies, and superannuation funds were pressured by their members to do the same.

    As consumers and investors, individuals can wage a personal trade war, sending a clear message. Trump may not be willing to listen to the leaders of allied nations, but if consumer and investor pressure is sustained and spreads globally, he may yet hear the voice of corporate America.

    Erin O’Brien receives funding from the Australian Research Council to examine consumer and investor activism for social change. She is affiliated with the Australian Political Studies Association.

    Justine Coneybeer receives funding from the Australian Research Council to investigate ethical investment.

    – ref. Trouble at Tesla and protests against Trump’s tariffs suggest consumer boycotts are starting to bite – https://theconversation.com/trouble-at-tesla-and-protests-against-trumps-tariffs-suggest-consumer-boycotts-are-starting-to-bite-252489

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Adelaide Hills water crisis: a local problem is a global wake-up call

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Holland, Principal Research Scientist, Water Security, CSIRO

    A dry farm dam in Montacute, Adelaide Hills, March 2025. Ilan Sagi.

    The Adelaide Hills are experiencing severe water shortages. The root cause? A prolonged dry period and not enough water tankers to meet unprecedented demand from people not connected to the mains water supply.

    Thousands of residents and farmers are hurting as dams, tanks and streams dry up. Water tankers are becoming a common sight, carting in desperately needed water. People are waiting weeks for expensive water deliveries.

    The South Australian government has set up emergency water collection points to cope with the demand from off-grid families. More water tankers have been secured. But despite recent rain, the situation is far from over.

    We found rainfall and flows into Adelaide’s reservoirs are at their lowest levels in 40 years. Reservoir levels have dropped to 44% – the lowest for more than 20 years.

    Adelaide is not currently at risk of running out of water; the state government built a desalination plant after the Millennium Drought. Production at the desal plant is four to six times higher than usual to meet demand. Without the desal plant and water from the River Murray, the city would be under severe water restrictions.

    But the crisis shows many off-grid families, farms and businesses need new options to plan for the future.

    Over the past 12 months, rainfall in parts of South Australia has been the lowest on record.
    Commonwealth of Australia 2025, Bureau of Meteorology

    Global water stress

    This is not the first time entire communities have run out of water.

    Cape Town in South Africa nearly ran out of water in 2018. The city of nearly 4 million people was weeks away from “Day Zero”.

    In Australia, several regional and rural country towns have hit their own Day Zero. Stanthorpe in Queensland officially ran out of water in January 2020. Truckloads of water were carted into town every day to meet residential demand.

    Scientists have coined a new term, “hydroclimate whiplash”, to describe the rapid swings between intensely wet and dangerously dry weather currently occurring across the globe. This climate volatility amplifies natural hazards such as flash floods, wildfires, landslides and disease.

    The January wildfires in Los Angeles happened when two wet winters were followed by an extremely dry autumn and winter, providing plenty of dry fuel for fire.

    These aren’t isolated events. The global water crisis didn’t go away.

    The bigger picture

    What’s happening in the Adelaide Hills – and in other very dry places worldwide – demonstrates the need for careful, long-term water security planning.

    The United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6 is to “ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all”. Water stress already affects more than 2 billion people – more than a quarter of the world’s population.

    By 2030, the UN predicts 2 billion people will still be living without safely managed drinking water, 3 billion without safely managed sanitation, and 1.4 billion without basic hygiene services.

    For many, this is literally a life-or-death matter.

    Investing in water security

    CSIRO is collaborating with industry, government and research organisations on research to overcome drought and build resilience for regional Australia. Our researchers are testing how well each of these strategies might work in different regions during extended dry periods. We calculate how much water can be collected and stored during the driest periods on record.

    Rainfall over Norfolk Island, a subtropical island in the Pacific Ocean roughly 1,500km southeast of Brisbane, has declined by 11% since 1970, with long runs of dry years in recent decades. The future is likely to be drier still.

    Our Norfolk Island Water Resource Assessment explored ways to help the community determine how to adapt and build resilience to drought.

    Since this project finished in 2020, residential and commercial rainwater tanks have been upgraded and a new seawater desalination plant installed. Other options to diversify water supplies included sharing groundwater bores, capturing runoff in gully dams, managing vegetation water use, and storing water underground.

    Excess water from rainwater or recycled wastewater can sometimes be stored underground in natural reservoirs called aquifers for use during drought. This is called “water banking” or “managed aquifer recharge”. The technique has been developed over the past 20 years and used to safely store water underground across Australia and overseas.

    Brackish (salty) groundwater is a potential water source that could be unlocked during drought. A National Water Grid funded project is investigating ways to use groundwater that would normally be too salty, along with renewable energy to power inland desalination plants. The project is investigating the prospect of using brackish groundwater across Western Australia for the first time.

    Future generations are likely to face more severe water shortages.
    Rosie Sheba

    A call to action

    The Adelaide Hills water crisis is a microcosm of a global issue. It’s a reminder action is needed now to secure our water future. Not when the water runs out.

    Deeper groundwater bores, water tankers on standby and bigger water storages are all potentially part of the portfolio of emergency plans. And due to climate change, the Adelaide Hills water crisis will happen again if we are unprepared. It is a question of when, not if.

    We have also seen the catastrophic effects of drought in Los Angeles – a tinderbox waiting to burn, and insufficient water on hand to fight the fires. We can and must prepare for natural disasters today. These are not unforeseen consequences. They are not “unknown unknowns”. We know them today. We will have no excuse when this happens.

    By adopting more sustainable water management policies and practices in the longer term, we can make sure the spectre of Day Zero does not become real for more communities around the world.

    With thanks to CSIRO Senior Research Scientist and Hydrologist Matt Gibbs and Principal Experimental Scientist in Hydrogeology Andrew Taylor.

    Kate Holland receives funding from the Australian Government Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, and Department of Industry, Science and Resources.

    Craig T. Simmons has received funding for water research from various government and non-government organisations in the past. He is currently serving as Chief Scientist for South Australia.

    – ref. Adelaide Hills water crisis: a local problem is a global wake-up call – https://theconversation.com/adelaide-hills-water-crisis-a-local-problem-is-a-global-wake-up-call-251265

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –