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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-Evening Report: Diabetes during pregnancy can cause serious problems later – mothers need proper screening after birth

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Phyllis Ohene-Agyei., Doctoral Researcher in Maternal Health, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Shutterstock/Dragana Gordic

    A growing number of women experience high blood sugar levels during pregnancy which typically resolve after birth.

    Known as gestational diabetes, this is the most common metabolic disorder in pregnancy and affects one in seven women worldwide and one in sixteen in New Zealand.

    Gestational diabetes is associated with complications during pregnancy. This includes high blood pressure, giving birth to a big baby (which increases the risk of vaginal birth complications) and increased rates of Caesarean section. It can also significantly affect the mother’s mental health and wellbeing.

    Worryingly, more women are being diagnosed with gestational diabetes than ever before. Our new review of later health impacts for these women suggests they could be receiving better care after birth and in the long term.

    Recommended care

    Women who experienced gestational diabetes are ten times more likely to develop type 2 diabetes and twice as likely to experience cardiovascular disorders such as heart disease in the years following birth, compared to women who don’t develop gestational diabetes.

    These mothers may also suffer from mental health problems, including depression, particularly in high-risk groups such as women of non-European ethnicity and those with a previous history of gestational diabetes.

    For these reasons, care after birth for these women is important. This should include regular screening for blood sugar levels, cardiovascular problems and mental wellbeing after birth. It is also important women receive advice on diet and exercise.

    Support for continued breastfeeding is also important as women who get gestational diabetes may experience a delay in milk flow and generally have lower breastfeeding rates compared to others. Breastfeeding may even reduce the risk of progression to type 2 diabetes.

    Gestational diabetes can delay the flow of milk and make breastfeeding more difficult.
    Shutterstock/Pixel Shot

    Screening should continue for more than the first year after giving birth. Best practice would see women who had gestational diabetes being provided with long-term follow-up care, given their high risk for type 2 diabetes and heart problems.

    Current evidence, however, suggests this isn’t necessarily happening. In a 2018 British study across several general practice centres, women who had gestational diabetes reported their levels of care during pregnancy dropped sharply after birth – to the point where they felt abandoned by the health system.

    In a 2024 New Zealand study, mothers who had had gestational diabetes were interviewed five years after birth and expressed the need for more support from the health system.

    While this study involved mothers’ perceptions about the optimal health and wellbeing for their children who were exposed to gestational diabetes, the findings also suggest room for improvement in care for the women themselves.

    Gaps in clinical guidelines

    Following on from this, our research team reviewed existing clinical practice guidelines to see if there were any gaps. These guidelines play an important role in contributing to quality care because they summarise research findings to provide recommendations for healthcare professionals to optimise health and reduce harm.

    We looked at recommendations from 26 clinical practice guidelines published in the past decade in 22 countries, including New Zealand. The findings showed we could be doing better for women who have experienced gestational diabetes.

    A key example relates to screening for diabetes after birth. It is common practice to check the blood sugar levels of women within three months of giving birth to see if they have gone back to normal.

    This testing ensures any abnormalities (like high blood glucose, which may suggest diabetes) are detected so that appropriate management begins early on. Sadly, a nationwide study reported only about half of women receive this screening within six months after birth in New Zealand.

    Sending reminders and combining these tests with other postnatal baby health checks and care procedures might encourage more women to check their blood sugar levels. However, very few guidelines we assessed recommend ways to raise the number of women who attend this screening.

    Even fewer guidelines talk about screening for poor mental health, despite an increased chance these women could experience depression after birth.

    Research we carried out in 2022, using randomised trial data of women with a previous history of gestational diabetes, revealed that around one in five self-reported symptoms of anxiety, depression or poor mental functioning at six months after birth.

    Postnatal screening for mental health problems for all women who had gestational diabetes should be recommended to help improve quality of care.

    Encouraging women who have had gestational diabetes to attend screening tests, continue breastfeeding and adopt healthy dietary choices and physical exercise requires health professionals to provide adequate counselling on the long-term risks of this condition. This will help women stick with their care plan after birth.

    Phyllis Ohene-Agyei. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Diabetes during pregnancy can cause serious problems later – mothers need proper screening after birth – https://theconversation.com/diabetes-during-pregnancy-can-cause-serious-problems-later-mothers-need-proper-screening-after-birth-245658

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Nobody wants to talk about AI safety. Instead they cling to 5 comforting myths

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Salmon, Professor of Human Factors, University of the Sunshine Coast

    Google Deepmind / Unsplash

    This week, France hosted an AI Action Summit in Paris to discuss burning questions around artificial intelligence (AI), such as how people can trust AI technologies and how the world can govern them.

    Sixty countries, including France, China, India, Japan, Australia and Canada, signed a declaration for “inclusive and sustainable” AI. The United Kingdom and United States notably refused to sign, with the UK saying the statement failed to address global governance and national security adequately, and US Vice President JD Vance criticising Europe’s “excessive regulation” of AI.

    Critics say the summit sidelined safety concerns in favour of discussing commercial opportunities.

    Last week, I attended the inaugural AI safety conference held by the International Association for Safe & Ethical AI, also in Paris, where I heard talks by AI luminaries Geoffrey Hinton, Yoshua Bengio, Anca Dragan, Margaret Mitchell, Max Tegmark, Kate Crawford, Joseph Stiglitz and Stuart Russell.

    As I listened, I realised the disregard for AI safety concerns among governments and the public rests on a handful of comforting myths about AI that are no longer true – if they ever were.

    1: Artificial general intelligence isn’t just science fiction

    The most severe concerns about AI – that it could pose a threat to human existence – typically involve so-called artificial general intelligence (AGI). In theory, AGI will be far more advanced than current systems.

    AGI systems will be able to learn, evolve and modify their own capabilities. They will be able to undertake tasks beyond those for which they were originally designed, and eventually surpass human intelligence.

    AGI does not exist yet, and it is not certain it will ever be developed. Critics often dismiss AGI as something that belongs only in science fiction movies. As a result, the most critical risks are not taken seriously by some and are seen as fanciful by others.

    However, many experts believe we are close to achieving AGI. Developers have suggested that, for the first time, they know what technical tasks are required to achieve the goal.

    AGI will not stay solely in sci-fi forever. It will eventually be with us, and likely sooner than we think.

    2: We already need to worry about current AI technologies

    Given the most severe risks are often discussed in relation to AGI, there is often a misplaced belief we do not need to worry too much about the risks associated with contemporary “narrow” AI.

    However, current AI technologies are already causing significant harm to humans and society. This includes through obvious mechanisms such as fatal road and aviation crashes, warfare, cyber incidents, and even encouraging suicide.

    AI systems have also caused harm in more oblique ways, such as election interference, the replacement of human work, biased decision-making, deepfakes, and disinformation and misinformation.

    According to MIT’s AI Incident Tracker, the harms caused by current AI technologies are on the rise. There is a critical need to manage current AI technologies as well as those that might appear in future.

    3: Contemporary AI technologies are ‘smarter’ than we think

    A third myth is that current AI technologies are not actually that clever and hence are easy to control. This myth is most often seen when discussing the large language models (LLMs) behind chatbots such as ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini.

    There is plenty of debate about exactly how to define intelligence and whether AI technologies truly are intelligent, but for practical purposes these are distracting side issues.
    It is enough that AI systems behave in unexpected ways and create unforeseen risks.

    Several AI chatbots appear to display surprising behaviours, such as attempts at ‘scheming’ to ensure their own preservation.
    Apollo Research

    For example, existing AI technologies have been found to engage in behaviours that most people would not expect from non-intelligent entities. These include deceit, collusion, hacking, and even acting to ensure their own preservation.

    Whether these behaviours are evidence of intelligence is a moot point. The behaviours may cause harm to humans either way.

    What matters is that we have the controls in place to prevent harmful behaviour. The idea that “AI is dumb” isn’t helping anyone.

    4: Regulation alone is not enough

    Many people concerned about AI safety have advocated for AI safety regulations.

    Last year the European Union’s AI Act, representing the world’s first AI law, was widely praised. It built on already established AI safety principles to provide guidance around AI safety and risk.

    While regulation is crucial, it is not all that’s required to ensure AI is safe and beneficial. Regulation is only part of a complex network of controls required to keep AI safe.

    These controls will also include codes of practice, standards, research, education and training, performance measurement and evaluation, procedures, security and privacy controls, incident reporting and learning systems, and more. The EU AI act is a step in the right direction, but a huge amount of work is still required to develop the appropriate mechanisms required to ensure it works.

    5: It’s not just about the AI

    The fifth and perhaps most entrenched myth centres around the idea that AI technologies themselves create risk.

    AI technologies form one component of a broader “sociotechnical” system. There are many other essential components: humans, other technologies, data, artefacts, organisations, procedures and so on.

    Safety depends on the behaviour of all these components and their interactions. This “systems thinking” philosophy demands a different approach to AI safety.

    Instead of controlling the behaviour of individual components of the system, we need to manage interactions and emergent properties.

    With AI agents on the rise – AI systems with more autonomy and the ability to carry out more tasks – the interactions between different AI technologies will become increasingly important.

    At present, there has been little work examining these interactions and the risks that could arise in the broader sociotechnical system in which AI technologies are deployed. AI safety controls are required for all interactions within the system, not just the AI technologies themselves.

    AI safety is arguably one of the most important challenges our societies face. To get anywhere in addressing it, we will need a shared understanding of what the risks really are.

    Paul Salmon receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Nobody wants to talk about AI safety. Instead they cling to 5 comforting myths – https://theconversation.com/nobody-wants-to-talk-about-ai-safety-instead-they-cling-to-5-comforting-myths-249489

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Sam Kerr verdict: what it means for law in the UK and the star athlete’s soccer career

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Megan McElhone, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, Monash University

    A London court has found Sam Kerr not guilty of the racially aggravated harassment of Metropolitan Police officer Stephen Lovell.

    As captain of the Australian women’s national soccer team, Kerr was widely condemned when news broke she had used a “racial slur” against an officer during an altercation.

    The high-profile incident sparked debate across the globe.

    Initially, former Australian soccer player Craig Foster criticised Kerr’s behaviour before retracting it and publicly apologising to her.

    Meanwhile, politicians and academics argued her comments did not amount to racism given the power dynamics at play: not only is Kerr of Indian descent, but official inquiries have found the Metropolitan Police to be institutionally racist.

    Historically, police have played a role in sustaining colonialism, racism and white supremacy. Calling Kerr’s words racist overlooks that they don’t accord with an entrenched, global system of power.

    What happened that night?

    Kerr has maintained she and her partner – United States’ women’s national team player Kristie Mewis – believed they were being kidnapped by a cab driver.

    He refused to let them out of the cab after Kerr vomited, taking them to Twickenham police station instead of their destination.

    There, Mewis broke the cab window in an attempt to get out of the vehicle.

    At the station, Kerr reportedly appealed to officers to “understand the emergency that both of us felt”, referencing the 2021 abduction, rape and murder of Sarah Everard by a Metropolitan Police officer.

    The commissioned inquiry into Everard’s murder characterised the Metropolitan Police as institutionally racist, misogynistic and homophobic.

    However, Kerr soon faced an allegation of racism after becoming distressed and antagonistic towards the officers.

    Believing they were siding with the cab driver after forming negative preconceptions because of her skin colour, she repeated “you guys are stupid and white, you guys are fucking stupid and white”.

    What are the legal ramifications in the UK?

    Kerr pleaded not guilty to the offence of intentionally causing harassment, alarm, or distress to another by using threatening, abusive, or insulting words under Section 4A of the Public Order Act 1986, and to the racial aggravation of the offence per the Crime and Disorder Act 1998.

    She faced a maximum sentence of two years’ imprisonment and an unlimited fine.

    Kerr accepted she used the words “fucking stupid and white”. But it still had to be proven she intended and caused harassment, alarm, or distress to Lovell and that the offence was racially motivated.

    Initially, the Crown Prosecution Service concluded there was not enough evidence to charge Kerr.

    But after receiving a request from the Metropolitan Police to review the case, and a new statement from Lovell about Kerr’s words making him feel “belittled” and “upset”, they authorised police to charge the athlete.

    A jury found her not guilty after a seven-day trial.

    Broadly speaking, public order offences criminalise words and behaviour that might breach the peace. Police have significant discretion to use these offences as tools to regulate people’s uses of public space.

    In Australia and the UK, police have been shown to use these powers in discriminatory ways.

    Kerr has conceded her behaviour was regrettable but the charge against her is difficult to align with the purpose of public order legislation.

    What does it mean for Kerr’s soccer career?

    It is unclear what this verdict means for Kerr’s career.

    Her English club, Chelsea, is anticipating she will return from a long-term knee injury soon.

    It is possible the club was kept in the loop about Kerr’s altercation with police from the beginning, as she reportedly threatened to involve its lawyers in the body-cam footage shown at trial.

    The club is yet to make a statement about the trial or verdict.

    Football Australia is in a different position though, having been blindsided by the news Kerr had been charged by police.

    The fact Kerr is the captain of the Matildas, and the sport’s highest-profile marketing asset, adds layers of complexity to Football Australia’s decision-making.

    CEO of Football Australia James Johnson declined to weigh in on Kerr’s captaincy until her trial concluded.

    It is possible the governing body will impose a sanction, with Kerr falling afoul of clause 2.14 of their national code of conduct and ethics after being charged with a criminal offence.

    Kerr could return to the pitch later this month, but has been left out of the Matildas squad for the SheBelieves Cup in the US because of her fitness.

    With the AFC Women’s Asian Cup on the horizon, interim Matildas head coach Tom Sermanni no doubt hopes her recovery stays on track.

    Meanwhile, Kerr is yet to play under Chelsea manager Sonia Bompastor. She could prove crucial as the club chases an elusive UEFA Women’s Champions League title, but faces competition for her spot.

    Megan McElhone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Sam Kerr verdict: what it means for law in the UK and the star athlete’s soccer career – https://theconversation.com/sam-kerr-verdict-what-it-means-for-law-in-the-uk-and-the-star-athletes-soccer-career-249153

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Helping teachers learn what works in the classroom − and what doesn’t − will get a lot harder without the Department of Education’s Institute of Education Sciences

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Nicole M. McNeil, Professor of Psychology, University of Notre Dame

    A U.S. flag and an Education Department flag fly outside the U.S. Department of Education building on Feb. 4, 2025, in Washington, D.C. Alex Wong/Getty Images

    The future of the Institute of Education Sciences, the nonpartisan research arm of the Education Department, is suddenly in jeopardy. The Department of Government Efficiency, a Trump administration task force led by Elon Musk, has announced plans to cancel most of the institute’s contracts and training grants.

    The institute’s annual budget is less that US$1 billion – or less than 1% of the Department of Education’s budget – but it advances education by supporting rigorous research and sharing data on student progress. It also sets standards for evidence-based practices and formalizes the criteria for evaluating educational research.

    In short, the Institute of Education Sciences identifies what works and what doesn’t.

    As cognitive scientists who engage in educational research, we believe this often overlooked institute is key to advancing national education standards and preventing pseudoscience from entering classrooms.

    Dissatisfaction with US education

    Getting education right can help address some of the nation’s biggest challenges, such as high school dropout rates and poverty.

    But throughout U.S. history, dissatisfaction with student achievement levels has spurred major education reform efforts.

    Russia’s launch of the Sputnik space satellite, for example, triggered the 1958 National Defense Education Act. That measure attempted to strengthen science and math instruction to bolster Cold War defense efforts.

    Concerns about educational inequality led to the 1965 Elementary and Secondary Education Act, which funded schools serving students from low-income families.

    After President Jimmy Carter created the Department of Education in 1979, small-government conservatives, including Ronald Reagan, pledged to abolish it.

    As president, however, Reagan appointed former education commissioner Terrel Bell as secretary of education. Bell convened the National Commission on Excellence in Education. And in 1983 it produced A Nation at Risk, a report that warned of “a rising tide of mediocrity” in schools.

    It motivated national leaders to push for higher academic standards.

    In 1997, growing alarm over many students’ poor reading levels led to the National Reading Panel, which emphasized evidence-based reading instruction.

    In response to continuing concern about U.S. education, President George W. Bush partnered with U.S. Sen. Edward M. Kennedy to pass the No Child Left Behind Act in 2002. The law attempted to raise standards by mandating testing and interventions for low-performing schools. It provided incentives for successful schools and punishment for failing ones.

    This law significantly improved achievement, particularly in math.

    President George W. Bush appears at the bill-signing ceremony of the No Child Left Behind Act at Hamilton High School in Hamilton, Ohio, on Jan. 8, 2002.
    Tim Sloan/AFP via Getty Images

    Institute of Education Sciences

    Just months after Congress approved the No Child Left Behind Act, it established the Institute of Education Sciences to provide independent education research, becoming the first federal agency dedicated to using scientific research to guide education policy.

    Before the institute, educational research was fragmented, ideologically driven and inaccessible to parents and teachers. Findings were buried in books or locked behind paywalls.

    The institute broke that cycle. Structured with statutory independence, it is led by a director and a board composed of researchers, not political appointees.

    It produces replicable results and makes them freely available to the public.

    For example, the What Works Clearinghouse, launched in 2003, provides educators with guidance on effective practices. A school board seeking to adopt a new curriculum can find answers on the site about effective approaches.

    The clearinghouse distills research into clear recommendations. It spares local decision-makers from having to wade through complex studies. The site also references original studies and offers descriptions for local decision-makers who want to examine the evidence for themselves.

    Since 2007, it has published 30 practice guides. They cover topics such as teaching fractions, improving reading and reducing high school dropout rates.

    These guides synthesize the best available evidence, rather than relying on one study, leader or political ideology.

    Yet, the clearinghouse may be one of the parts of the Institute of Education Sciences on the chopping block.

    Evidence increases freedom

    From the 20th-century belief that instruction should be tailored to students’ skull shape to the 1970s movement promoting unstructured learning in classrooms without walls, pseudoscience and fads have obstructed improvements in education.

    The Institute of Education Sciences protects educational freedom by countering these claims.

    Some argue that free markets should dictate educational choices. They believe parents and school boards will naturally gravitate toward effective programs while ineffective ones fade away.

    But education markets often reward programs with the best marketing, not the best results. Psychologists who study scientific thinking have documented how pseudoscientific programs gain traction through compelling narratives rather than evidence.

    Meanwhile, public trust in expertise is declining, and pseudoscientific products flood the market. Programs such as Brain Balance and Learning Rx thrive in the $2 billion brain training industry.

    Marketed directly to parents of children with learning difficulties, these products use slick advertising and claim to “rewire” children’s brains to boost learning. Families pay thousands for programs that lack credible, peer-reviewed evidence of lasting benefits.

    Programs designed by university scholars also aren’t immune to the allure of anecdote over hard data.

    Former Columbia professor Lucy Calkins downplayed the importance of teaching phonics, thus harming a generation of students’ reading development. Stanford professor Jo Boaler’s controversial ideas delayed Algebra I in some California schools until ninth grade and discouraged timed arithmetic practice.

    And Drug Abuse Resistance Education thrived for decades despite overwhelming evidence that it did not work.

    These examples reveal how well-intentioned but ineffective educational products gain traction through public appeal rather than rigorous research.

    The future of IES

    In 2007 the Office of Management and Budget awarded the Institute of Education Sciences the highest score on its program assessment rating tool, a distinction earned by only 18% of federal programs.

    But most Americans probably never heard of this.

    And that highlights the institute’s major weakness: insufficient emphasis on sharing its findings and practice guides with the public and policymakers.

    The institute would do well to publicize its findings more extensively so that parents and education leaders can better access rigorous research to improve education.

    Whatever changes are made to the Department of Education, preserving the institute’s role in providing research on what works best – and ensuring continuous exchanges between research and practice – will benefit the American public.

    Nicole M. McNeil has served as an investigator on projects funded by IES, including one current project on leveraging technology to improve children’s mathematical understanding. She has given invited talks to trainees in IES predoctoral training programs and has served on IES grant review and awards panels. She regularly supports educators in engaging with IES’s What Works Clearinghouse (WWC) and its Practice Guides as part of her capacity-building efforts to connect volunteer tutors to cognitive science through an AmeriCorps VGF grant.

    Robert Stuart Siegler has received funding from IES for four grants; the most recent of which ended in 2018. He also received funds from IES for heading the Fractions Practice Guide Panel and for writing a review for IES of findings from research that the institute funded.

    – ref. Helping teachers learn what works in the classroom − and what doesn’t − will get a lot harder without the Department of Education’s Institute of Education Sciences – https://theconversation.com/helping-teachers-learn-what-works-in-the-classroom-and-what-doesnt-will-get-a-lot-harder-without-the-department-of-educations-institute-of-education-sciences-247675

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Beyond Emilia Pérez: 5 Mexican films that do justice to victims of the drug cartels

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of Wollongong

    Julieta Egurrola in _Ruido_ (Noise). Courtesy of Netflix ©2022

    Oscar frontrunner Emilia Pérez has received mixed reactions from the film industry, critics and general audiences. On Rotten Tomatoes it holds a 72% critic score – but a dismal 17% from viewers.

    Mexican audiences have been particularly harsh. On its opening weekend in Mexico, the film grossed only US$74,000. Scores of moviegoers even demanded refunds.

    French director Jacques Audiard presents Emilia Pérez as his bold yet compassionate take on Mexico’s drug war and the resulting enforced disappearances. The film, however, has been criticised for how it pities and condescends to Mexicans while lacking real understanding of the violence it claims to represent.

    Those seeking to understand the suffering caused by enforced disappearances in Mexico would do well to look beyond Emilia Pérez. Here are five films you should watch.

    Tempestad

    The 2016 documentary Tempestad (Tempest), directed by Mexican-Salvadoran filmmaker Tatiana Huezo, genuinely engages with suffering and atonement in Mexico’s violent landscape. It follows the experiences of two women with organised crime and the Mexican justice system.

    Miriam Carvajal, a former customs official and mother of a young child, is wrongfully convicted on spurious charges of human trafficking and sent to a prison run by a criminal organisation. To survive, she becomes complicit in the brutal violence inflicted on the most vulnerable inmates, such as migrants.

    Adela Alvarado is a professional clown. She has been searching for her daughter, who disappeared a decade before filming. Despite threats to her life from police officers likely involved in the disappearance, Adela continues her relentless quest to find her child against all odds.

    Both women are driven by love for their children. Miriam is heard but never seen; Adela’s life among circus folk unfolds on camera. This visually highlights that their stories mirror each other yet are not identical.

    Huezo recognises perpetrators can also be victims, but refuses to turn the harm they have caused into an instrument for their redemption.

    Devil’s Freedom

    Everardo González’s 2017 documentary La Libertad del Diablo (Devil’s Freedom) also explores the theme of atonement for perpetrators alongside the suffering of their victims.

    González presents a choral narrative of Mexico’s drug wars. Testimonies come from crime syndicate hitmen, soldiers involved in law enforcement, a mother whose children disappeared, young women whose mothers were taken, and a man tortured by police.

    Victims and perpetrators wear compression masks made for burn treatment, ostensibly to protect their identities. These masks, however, also serve as a haunting equaliser that exposes a society scarred by violence.

    In one powerful scene, a victim recalls pitying her children’s murderer after sensing his shame. She removes the mask following her account of forgiveness and hesitantly smiles at the camera – her trembling lips raising fundamental questions about Mexico’s struggle to heal from the wounds of its drug wars.

    Identifying Features

    Mexican filmmakers have long used fiction to “exorcise the pain” of enforced disappearances, as Mexican actor Giovanna Zacarías puts it. Fernanda Valadez’s debut film, Sin Señas Particulares (Identifying Features, 2020) exemplifies this powerfully.

    Valadez’s restrained narrative avoids the stereotypical passion often attributed to Latin Americans.

    Magdalena (Mercedes Hernández), a modest rural woman, searches for her missing son, Jesús (Juan Jesús Varela), who vanished en route to the United States. Magdalena’s soft voice and timid demeanour conceal quiet defiance – she refuses to be sidelined. We never see those she questions. We witness only the pain on her face and her stoic resolve.

    Mexico is no fairy tale. In the agonising final minutes, Magdalena gains a son even as she loses another – though she cannot be with any of them. Life goes on in Mexico: Magdalena has found a grave to mourn at, and we mourn with her.

    Prayers for the Stolen

    Noche de Fuego (Prayers for the Stolen, 2021) marked Tatiana Huezo’s first foray into fiction filmmaking. The film follows the story of three friends growing up together in the mountains of Mexico, amid normalised violence and enforced disappearances.

    The girls’ world is shaped by strategies for survival, with danger looming from both criminal organisations and the state, embodied by the army. Yet, even in this tense environment, they still experience the everyday joys and struggles of childhood and adolescence.

    Drug violence contextualises the girls’ world – but does not define them. Huezo does not portray them as mere victims. As they grow, we witness how their rural teachers and mothers have provided them with the necessary tools to foster critical thinking.

    Even though local criminals disappear one of the girls, we glimpse a future where her two friends may one day challenge the silence and brutality of the adult world. Despite the premature loss of many childhoods in Mexico, Huezo leaves room for hope.

    Noise

    Natalia Beristain’s Ruido (Noise, 2022) follows Julia (Julieta Egurrola), a middle-class woman in her late 60s. She is the mother of Gertrudis, “Ger,” a student who vanished while on vacation with friends. Confronted with bureaucratic inefficiency and state indifference, Julia is forced to “do the work of others” and investigate Ger’s disappearance herself.

    On her journey, she finds women willing to risk everything for the truth. Among them, she discovers compassion and solidarity, from young feminists demanding justice, to mothers who, having also lost loved ones, guide her through the legal and forensic processes involved in searching for clandestine graves.

    “You are not alone”, the women repeat like a mantra. As Pulitzer Prize-winning Mexican author Cristina Rivera Garza reminds us, grief indeed is never a solitary. We always grieve for and with someone.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Beyond Emilia Pérez: 5 Mexican films that do justice to victims of the drug cartels – https://theconversation.com/beyond-emilia-perez-5-mexican-films-that-do-justice-to-victims-of-the-drug-cartels-249160

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: There is declining trust in Australian unis. Federal government policy is a big part of the problem

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Graeme Turner, Emeritus Professor of Cultural Studies, The University of Queensland

    Matej Kastellic/ Shutterstock

    As we head towards the federal election, both sides of politics are making a point of criticising universities and questioning their role in the community.

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has accused unis of focusing on “woke” issues that “just aren’t cutting it around kitchen tables”.

    The Albanese government has also accused universities of being out of touch. A Labor-chaired Senate committee has just set up an inquiry into university governance, pointing to “an extraordinary range” of issues, including executive pay.

    Both the Coalition and Labor want to clamp down on international student numbers, arguing they drive up city rents and threaten the integrity of Australian higher education.

    The criticism goes beyond politics. Recent media coverage called the sector a “mess” and asked “is a university degree still worth it?”

    No wonder newsletter Future Campus says the “hottest topic” in Australian higher education is whether universities have lost their social licence.

    What is social licence?

    A social licence means a community has given tacit permission for an organisation to operate. It goes beyond simple laws or regulations, and extends to the idea that a community implicitly trusts and has confidence in an organisation.

    A social licence means businesses, in particular, should not ignore their responsibility to provide a social benefit to their communities. This needs to go beyond providing commodities or generating profits.

    It may be a bit of stretch to compare universities with multinational corporations. But they have come under scrutiny for systemic underpayment of staff, “excessive” vice-chancellor and senior executive salaries and a structural over-reliance on international student income.

    In December 2024, a state parliament review expressed concern the University of Tasmania was prioritising “commercial over community interests in its core functions”.

    At the same time, Australian surveys show declining levels of public trust in universities and community concerns that profits take precedence over education.

    Governments have played a role

    So there are many reasons to ask how well our universities benefit the national community, beyond their economic outputs.

    But while our politicians readily line up to express concern, it is highly disingenuous to only blame universities for their standing in the community.

    The situation politicians now lament is the result of a long-term, bipartisan political project, prosecuted by successive federal governments.

    As a 2023 Australia Institute report found, federal government funding for universities (excluding HECS/HELP) has fallen from 0.9% of GDP in 1995 to 0.6% of GDP in 2021. Both Coalition and Labor governments have sought to reduce the sector’s costs to the budget.

    Over a similar period, enrolments tripled.



    Read more:
    Tumult and transformation: the story of Australian universities over the past 30 years

    Behaving like businesses

    To compensate for this funding loss, universities have been coaxed into behaving more like businesses.

    The federal policy settings have shown them the way to go.

    Teaching foreign students is more profitable than teaching domestic students, research collaborations with business and industry are more profitable than collaboration with communities. Increasingly, in the search for new income sources, commercial, rather than academic, considerations have driven institutional decisions.

    In a competitive market, the interests of individual institutions rather than those of the nation inevitably prevail.

    There has been a succession of redundancies and knowledge, learning and personnel have been lost. The losses have wound back generations of accrued cultural and educational capital for the nation.

    It is no surprise public confidence in universities’ utility and legitimacy has diminished.

    The most significant problem

    This is not to say universities are blameless. University leaders and academics acknowledge there has been a loss of public confidence. There is also acknowledgement some of the damage is due to internal issues – such as governance failures.

    But the most significant problem is the corrosive effect of several decades of commercialisation, underpinned by a political disregard for the sector’s contribution to the public good.

    If political leaders are serious about arresting the erosion of our universities’ social licence, it would be helpful if they stopped behaving as if it has nothing to do with them.

    Graeme Turner’s book, Broken: Universities, politics and the public good, will be published by Monash University Press in July as part of its In the National Interest series.

    Graeme Turner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. There is declining trust in Australian unis. Federal government policy is a big part of the problem – https://theconversation.com/there-is-declining-trust-in-australian-unis-federal-government-policy-is-a-big-part-of-the-problem-248770

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A fierce tussle over a Northern Territory river reveals Australia’s stark choice on water justice

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Quentin Grafton, Australian Laureate Professor of Economics, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

    The Roper River Chris Ison/Shutterstock

    Water is now a contested resource around the world. Nowhere is this more evident than in the fight playing out over the Northern Territory’s Roper River – one of the last free-flowing rivers in Australia, nurtured by the enduring presence of First Nations custodians.

    The territory government recently doubled water extraction allowances from the aquifer that feeds the Roper River, making billions of litres available to irrigators, for free. The change risks permanent damage not just to the river but to world-famous springs and sacred sites fundamentally important to Traditional Owners.

    Australia has a very poor track record on maintaining healthy river systems, and on respecting First Nations rights to access and use water.

    The Roper River represents a chance to change course on decades of water policy failure. It also shows we must transform how Australia’s water is valued, who uses it, and who decides how vital rivers should be managed.

    What’s happening on the Roper River?

    The Roper River runs east for 400 kilometres from the Katherine region to the Gulf of Carpentaria.

    First Nations people comprise 73% of the population in the Roper River area. Amid socioeconomic challenges, Country sustains them as it has done for 65,000 years. It is integral to maintaining cultural knowledge, as well as ceremonial practices, environmental care and traditional food systems. Traditional Owners’ rights are recognised through Aboriginal freehold land and native title across the area.

    Irrigated crops including melons, mangoes and cotton are grown over a small part of the river catchment.

    In a string of recent decisions – mainly the designation of regional “water allocation plans” – the territory government has vastly increased potential extraction from underground aquifers. This could allow agriculture and other industries to expand.

    The Mataranka plan, which applies to the Roper River, now allows irrigators to double the amount of water extracted from an underground aquifer crucial to the river’s dry-season flows. These new extraction amounts would fill 25,000 Olympic swimming pools a year. The groundwater also feeds thermal springs at Mataranka – a sacred site and tourism drawcard.

    The groundwater also feeds thermal springs at Mataranka, a tourism drawcard.
    Martin Helgemeir/Shutterstock

    The decision came despite staunch opposition from Traditional Owners. As Northern Land Council chair Matthew Ryan told SBS:

    Both the previous and the current NT Government have ignored the voices of Traditional Owners, who have repeatedly said that the health and viability of the Roper River and the springs at Mataranka are at great risk.

    Water is life. It is our most valuable resource and Traditional Owners have an obligation to take care of the land and areas of cultural significance.

    The Baaka: a sad story of degradation

    Sadly, this story is not new to Australia. We need only look to the Baaka (Lower Darling River) in New South Wales as a cautionary tale.

    More than a century of water extraction has left the river and its wetlands degraded. This was demonstrated in 2023 when up to 30 million fish died due to low levels of dissolved oxygen, caused by, among other factors, too much water extracted upstream.

    The ecological damage has harmed the health and wellbeing of river communities – especially Traditional Owners such as the Barkandji people, who have long relied on the river for sustenance.

    The problem is getting worse. As research late last year showed, an investment of more than A$8 billion to date has failed to prevent a stark decline in the health of the Murray-Darling Basin river system.

    Martuwarra: another river in peril

    Martuwarra, or the Fitzroy River, runs through Western Australia’s Kimberley region. It is the state’s largest Aboriginal Cultural Heritage site and is on the national heritage list. Evidence indicates human occupation along the Martuwarra for at least 35,000  years.

    Traditional knowledge indicates climate change – among other harms – is threatening the Martuwarra. Ecological and ground water systems are drying up, making traditional food and medicine harder to find.

    This harms Indigenous custodians reliant on the Martuwarra for their lifeways and livelihoods.

    But there is hope. The Indigenous-led Martuwarra Fitzroy River Council has united West Kimberley people, First Peoples and others, along with stakeholders. It seeks to foster joint decision-making on planning and management to take full account of the social, cultural, spiritual and environmental impacts of water allocation across the catchment.

    This world-leading example shows what can be achieved when Traditional Owners and their partners unite to defend nature, water and Country as sources of life, not just resources to be exploited.

    Finding answers

    Many of the world’s largest rivers are suffering from neglect and destruction. Last month, on the world’s inaugural Water Justice Day, people around the globe fighting for water justice came together in Canberra.

    Community members, researchers, Elders, advocates and decision-makers gathered to share stories from Argentina, Australia, India, Kenya, Brazil and Mexico.

    Each tale described people working together to push back against water injustice, whether it involved unequal access, theft, dispossession, pollution or post-truth claims about water.

    Participants also watched the premiere screening of the short film EveryOne, EveryWhere, EveryWhen. It highlights what is at stake for Australia’s living rivers – Baaka, Roper and Martuwarra – and tells of the struggle to bring justice to these rivers and their people.

    A trailer for the film EveryOne, EveryWhere, EveryWhen.

    A fork in the river

    Clearly, the time for water reform is now. So what does this mean in practice?

    First, the precautionary principle must be deeply embedded in all government decisions. This means the potential for serious environmental damage must be properly considered, and actions taken to avoid it, even when science is not certain.

    Second, permission from First Peoples should be obtained for any activity affecting their land or waters, following the principles of “free, prior and informed consent”.

    And finally, both Indigenous knowledge and Western science must be brought together to plan, monitor and regulate all water extraction, to ensure our precious rivers are managed for both the present and the future.

    Australians face a stark choice.

    We can keep gifting valuable water resources to powerful commercial interests, while ignoring the warning signs our rivers are sending.

    Or we can follow First Nations leaders and listen to what Country is telling us: to safeguard water for everyone, including non-human kin, to secure a liveable and thriving future for all.

    In response to issues raised in this article, the NT’s Minister for Lands, Planning and Environment, Joshua Burgoyne, said the Mataranka water allocation plan provides certainty to the environment and the community and supports regional economic development.

    He said the plan was “precautionary, evidenced based, and developed with considered involvement from local community representatives” including Traditional Owners, and preserves more than 90% of dry season flows to the Roper River.

    Quentin Grafton receives funding from the Australian Research Council and is the Convenor of the Water Justice Hub.

    Anne Poelina is Chair, Martuwarra Fitzroy River Council. She is Professor, Chair and Senior Research Fellow Indigenous Knowledges and affiliated with Nulungu Research Institute, University of Notre Dame, Broome. She is Project Lead for an Australian Research Council Funded Project.

    Sarah Milne has received funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. A fierce tussle over a Northern Territory river reveals Australia’s stark choice on water justice – https://theconversation.com/a-fierce-tussle-over-a-northern-territory-river-reveals-australias-stark-choice-on-water-justice-248766

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trauma dumping: how sharing experiences on social media can cause distress for other users

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alix Woolard, Senior Research Fellow, The Kids Research Institute Australia

    Stock Unit/Shutterstock

    Have you ever asked someone how their day was, or been chatting casually with a friend, only to have them tell you a horrific story that has left you feeling distressed or emotionally exhausted yourself?

    This is called “trauma dumping”. It’s when someone shares something traumatic or distressing without checking in first if the person they’re talking to has the capacity or willingness to take on that information.

    Trauma dumping is not new, and you’ve probably experienced it (or inadvertently done it yourself) at some stage in your life.

    But now, with the rise of social media platforms such as TikTok, the risk of experiencing trauma dumping has increased exponentially.

    People often turn to TikTok for support or validation. And because TikTok’s algorithm is based on attention, it’s not uncommon for highly emotional stories to gather traction and go viral.

    My colleagues and I wanted to understand more about trauma dumping on TikTok. In a recent study, we found people often share their trauma on TikTok. And this is usually done without a trigger warning.

    TikTok and mental health

    It’s estimated around 75% of the population have experienced a traumatic event at some point in their lives. This could include exposure to abuse or neglect in childhood, violence, natural disasters, the death of a loved one, or any other event which is unexpected, distressing, and causes long-term impacts on physical or mental health.

    TikTok can be an important source of support and validation, especially for young people who have faced trauma, and who may not have sufficient support offline.

    Previous research has shown TikTok provides a platform for talking about things like body image concerns, seeking support and information about gender and sexual diversity, and tackling stigma.

    But while TikTok can be a great place for community, support and validation, at the same time it can be a hotbed for trauma dumping.

    Importantly, sharing trauma on social media runs the risk of exposing other users to vicarious traumatisation, which is when a person is traumatised by someone else’s trauma.

    Vicarious trauma is most common in people who work in “frontline” jobs, such as paramedics or therapists, who deal with trauma regularly. However, anyone can be at risk. Factors including personal experiences, personality traits (such as empathy), support systems and coping strategies all play a role in whether someone might experience vicarious trauma.

    Many people who use TikTok and other social media platforms will be exposed to ‘trauma dumping’.
    Prostock-studio/Shutterstock

    In our study, we set out to explore the top videos on TikTok with one or more of five hashtags related to trauma: #traumatok, #trauma, #traumatized, #traumatic and #traumabond.

    We looked the most viewed 50 videos from each hashtag. At the time we carried out our analysis in December 2022, these 250 videos had a total of 296.6 million likes, 2.3 million comments and 4.6 million shares.

    #TraumaTok

    We found the majority of videos (about 67%) were from people sharing their trauma. In many cases severe trauma was discussed, including child maltreatment, violence and death.

    Our study also showed some videos (about 22%) were from people who claimed to be “experts” in trauma. They were using the platform to speak about the symptoms and treatment for trauma-related mental health conditions.

    Worryingly, most “experts” (84%) did not disclose their credentials. And only a small proportion (2%) said they were licensed psychologists, counsellors or medical professionals (who are trained to provide evidence-based treatment or advice for mental health).

    The remaining videos were either more general mental health content with a mix of hashtags such as “anxiety” and “depression”, or were meant to be humorous, using memes or jokes about trauma.

    One of the most concerning things we found in our study was that only 3.7% of videos had some form of trigger warning. A trigger warning, often a verbal statement by the creator, text within the video or a caption, is meant to alert the audience that potentially distressing content is discussed in the video.

    Most videos we looked at didn’t come with trigger warnings.
    Ketut Subiyanto/Pexels

    One of the limitations of our study was that we didn’t look at users’ experiences of viewing these videos. We also didn’t explore discourse on the app, such as comments and video replies.

    We can’t say for sure what it’s like for people, especially young people or people with lived experience of trauma, to watch and interact with these videos. Exploring this should be a focus for future research.

    Trigger warnings are important

    None of this is to say that sharing stories, even traumatic ones, should never happen. In fact, we know support from others is essential for healing from trauma. This can be facilitated, among other avenues, through sharing stories on social media.

    But to make this safer for everyone, TikTok should encourage trigger warnings, and creators should use them on videos where trauma is shared. This can give users the option to “opt out” and scroll on if they think they might not have the capacity to listen at that time.

    For people consuming videos on TikTok and other platforms, it’s important to be wary of misinformation and think critically about the information they see, seeking further advice from other sources.

    If you feel distressed by content you see on social media, seek support from a health-care professional.

    If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

    Alix Woolard receives funding from Embrace at The Kids.

    – ref. Trauma dumping: how sharing experiences on social media can cause distress for other users – https://theconversation.com/trauma-dumping-how-sharing-experiences-on-social-media-can-cause-distress-for-other-users-246337

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Spacefarers may contaminate other worlds – but scientists have plans to keep the cosmos clean

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kirsten Banks, Lecturer, School of Science, Computing and Engineering Technologies, Swinburne University of Technology

    Debris on the surface of Mars from the Perseverance mission, captured on April 19 2022. NASA/JPL-Caltech

    In his inauguration speech in January, United States President Donald Trump declared the US would “plant the stars and stripes on the planet Mars”.

    This shouldn’t come as a surprise. In 2017, in Trump’s previous term of office, he promised to “establish a foundation for an eventual mission to Mars”. And his billionaire adviser Elon Musk is famously obsessed with colonising the red planet.

    The first spacecraft to successfully explore another planet was NASA’s Mariner 2 mission. It passed within 35,000km of Venus on December 14 1962. Since then, there have been many successful missions to explore various planets, moons, asteroids and comets in the Solar System.

    But in our quest to explore celestial bodies, we risk contaminating them. And if we were to inadvertently contaminate a world that has the potential to host life – either now or in the past – that could compromise all future scientific investigations. It could also affect any life that may currently exist there.

    Because of this, space agencies such as NASA take the issue of interplanetary contamination very seriously. To decrease the risk, it uses a range of methods. And scientists are developing new ways to ensure biological material from Earth doesn’t make its way onto another planet.

    Two types of contamination

    Interplanetary contamination refers to a scenario in which a spacecraft carries biological material from one planetary object to another. Research indicates previous missions to Mars may have contaminated it with bacterial spores from Earth.

    There are two types of interplanetary contamination.

    The first is when biological material from Earth is transported to another planetary object, resulting in contamination. This is known as forward contamination.

    The second type is when biological material from an extraterrestrial source is brought back to Earth and contaminates Earth’s environment. This is known as back contamination.

    An artist’s impression of Sputnik 1 in orbit.
    Gregory Todd, CC BY-SA

    Even before the first successful launch of a human-made object to space, scientists were talking about the importance of mitigating interplanetary contamination.

    For example, at the Seventh Congress of the International Astronautical Federation in Rome in September 1956, one year before the launch of Sputnik 1, concerns were raised about the possibility of contaminating the Moon and other planetary bodies in the Solar System.

    Since then, space agencies across the world have implemented strategies to safeguard missions against interplanetary contamination.

    High temperatures, clean rooms and death plunges

    There are several strategies to minimise forward contamination – for example, using high temperatures or chemicals to sterilise the components of a spacecraft.

    Scientists and engineers also assemble spacecraft in clean rooms before launching them into space.

    However, these methods have limitations. In particular, spacecraft materials can be sensitive to high temperatures. Chemicals can also tarnish metals and break down essential coatings.

    Strategies are also employed at the end of planetary missions to minimise the potential for forward contamination.

    For example, at the end of its 13-year journey exploring the environment around Saturn and its moons, the Cassini space probe plunged into the depths of Saturn’s atmosphere.

    This so-called “death plunge” alleviated the risks of contaminating moons that could potentially host life, such as Titan and Enceladus. The extreme heat experienced by Cassini essentially incinerated the probe. This likely sterilised any potential contaminants carried by the probe from Earth.

    Biological barriers

    Scientists must also reduce the risk of potential back contamination on sample return missions.

    For example, in the recent OSIRIS-REx sample return mission, a sample collected from near-Earth asteroid Bennu was sealed in an airtight container on its return to Earth.

    This ensured no extraterrestrial material could be released into Earth’s environment in an uncontrolled way. Once scientists retrieved the return capsule from the Utah desert, they carefully transported it to a specialised facility designed for handling potentially hazardous materials.

    Facilities such as these are designed with biological barriers to prevent the escape of materials or organisms into Earth’s environment.

    They also function as “cleanrooms” to prevent potential forward contamination of the samples from Earth-based organisms.

    The sample return capsule from NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission pictured at the Utah Test and Training Range shortly after returning to Earth.
    NASA/Keegan Barber

    New methods

    Scientists are also developing new methods to reduce the risk of interplanetary contamination.

    For example, a recent paper in Nature described a method known as the “active plasma steriliser”.

    This system uses plasma at low temperatures to effectively decontaminate materials in as little as 45 minutes.

    This novel technology works on short timescales. And unlike previous methods that use high temperatures, it can be used on materials and spacecraft components sensitive to temperature.

    We can learn a lot about the potential impact of interplanetary contamination from present and future space missions by looking at our own backyard here in Australia.

    European colonisation led to the introduction of numerous invasive species, such as European rabbits in the 1800s. In turn, this led to widespread environmental damage.

    Similarly, the arrival of foreign diseases following colonisation caused devastating losses among Aboriginal communities.

    This demonstrates why mitigating interplanetary contamination is so important – not only to advance our understanding of the origins of life, but to protect any extraterrestrial environments that could harbour life.

    Kirsten Banks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Spacefarers may contaminate other worlds – but scientists have plans to keep the cosmos clean – https://theconversation.com/spacefarers-may-contaminate-other-worlds-but-scientists-have-plans-to-keep-the-cosmos-clean-249135

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Jim Chalmers wants to fix Australia’s broken road tax system. Here’s what one solution might look like

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of Technology

    Taras Vyshnya/Shutterstock

    Australia’s road tax system has a problem. Revenue from the fuel excise – the primary way we tax motoring – has been declining steadily as a proportion of government revenue over the past two decades.

    Politicians, policy experts and business leaders have all long called for reform. Now, change could be on the horizon.

    The Australian Financial Review reports that at a closed-door dinner with business leaders in Canberra last week, Treasurer Jim Chalmers hinted that addressing falling fuel excise revenue would be a tax reform priority if Labor is re-elected.

    One option would be a road user charge on electric vehicles (EVs), which obviously don’t pay fuel excise. But singling them out would undermine the government’s own efforts in promoting EVs to help meet the nation’s emissions reduction targets.

    There are also other inequities in the way the current fuel excise works. Our previous research has shown Australia is ready for a rational and transparent discussion about road-user charging on all vehicles, not just electric ones.

    How we tax roads today

    Currently, Australian motorists pay several government taxes and other fees on their vehicles.

    One is the fuel excise. This tax, collected by the Commonwealth, is paid per litre of fuel purchased and is indexed every six months to account for inflation.

    Australia’s existing fuel excise is charged per litre of fuel.
    Daria Nipot/Shutterstock

    Then there are registration fees, typically paid every six or 12 months and collected by state and territory governments.

    Vehicle owners also have to pay compulsory third-party insurance, which in some states is bundled with registration fees.

    When buying or transferring ownership of a vehicle, other fees can apply. These include stamp duty as well as the luxury car tax on vehicles priced above a certain threshold.

    The system isn’t working

    As a proportion of Australian taxation revenue, revenue from the fuel excise has dwindled from 7.4% in 2000 to 3.9% in 2025.

    It might be tempting to blame electric cars for this decline. But this share began declining steadily long before EVs were introduced in Australia, and is projected to fall further.

    Falling fuel excise revenue can be attributed to a range of other factors. Improvements in engine fuel consumption have had a substantial impact on the number of litres used to travel the same distances.

    In Australia, the average fuel consumption of passenger cars in 2005 was 11.3 litres per 100 kilometres. In 2024, this figure was around 6.9 litres.

    Fuel consumption rates are expected to improve further and match those in other nations with the introduction of the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard, which came into effect at the start of this year.

    Public transport usage has also been trending upwards in many of Australia’s major cities since the turn of the millennium, reducing reliance on private cars.

    Need for an alternative

    Australia’s current road taxes are blunt instruments that don’t reflect the true societal costs of driving.

    The fuel excise, for example, does not properly account for traffic congestion or emissions. A driver who travels in regional Victoria or in an outer suburb of Sydney for local shopping or school drop-offs will pay the same excise as a driver who contributes to congestion by travelling into the city centre.

    Similarly, car registration fees are not related to the number of kilometres travelled, congestion created, or emissions produced by driving.

    One of the most widely known alternatives alternatives to a fuel excise tax is a pay-per-distance road user charge. Such charges work by charging vehicles a fee per kilometre travelled.

    This would not be a new tax on top of existing taxes – it would replace current fuel excise and car registration fees.

    Adjustments to this model can include exempting some groups from the charges (such as low-income families, taxis and emergency service vehicles), adjusting charges for different categories of vehicles, and applying congestion charges under certain conditions.

    Failed attempts

    Targeting electric vehicles with a road user charge has been an acute priority for many states, as they are currently completely exempt from paying the fuel excise.

    In 2021, the Victorian government introduced a controversial distance-based charge for EVs. But this scheme was challenged in the High Court and ruled unconstitutional.

    Victoria’s measure was found to be a form of excise, and only the Commonwealth can impose such a tax.

    Following the ruling, the treasurer asked state and territory treasurers to look into the design of a national scheme in December 2023. But this process reportedly stalled.

    Support for reform

    Today, there are about 300,000 EVs on Australian roads (including around 248,000 battery electric cars and 53,500 plug-in hybrids).

    That’s only a tiny fraction of the 21 million cars registered across the nation. Over coming decades, as EVs take a greater share of total vehicles on the road, the hit to already flagging fuel excise revenue will become acute.

    In the meantime, our own previous research and public surveys show Australia is ready for a rational and transparent discussion about road-user charging on all vehicles, not only electric vehicles.

    We found most respondents would support such charges if they were transparent, equitable and replace or reduce other road taxes.


    The Conversation, CC BY

    There have already been several Australian studies around the shape and form of road user charges that can inform the discussions and public consultations.

    We also found willingness to pay a road-user charge varies with the level of expected savings. Most respondents were willing to pay a road-user charge if it saved them on registration fees and fuel taxes.

    If well planned and implemented, a national approach to road-user charges can raise enough revenue to replace the fuel excise tax. It will also ease congestion, promote sustainable transport and help achieve Australia’s targets for cutting transport emissions.

    Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Australia Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, and Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts.

    Hadi Ghaderi receives funding from the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, IVECO Trucks Australia limited, Innovative Manufacturing Cooperative Research Centre, Victoria Department of Education and Training, Australia Post, Bondi Laboratories, Innovative Manufacturing Cooperative Research Centre, Sphere for Good, Australian Meat Processor Corporation, City of Casey, 460degrees and Passel.

    – ref. Jim Chalmers wants to fix Australia’s broken road tax system. Here’s what one solution might look like – https://theconversation.com/jim-chalmers-wants-to-fix-australias-broken-road-tax-system-heres-what-one-solution-might-look-like-249477

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Is Tesla’s sales slump down to Elon Musk?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By James Obiegbu, Lecturer in Experiential Marketing and Management, Bournemouth University

    Frederic Legrand – COMEO/Shutterstock

    Over the past couple of years, the seemingly steady rightward drift of Elon Musk has culminated in actions and statements that have sparked broad controversy. Musk – visionary CEO of Tesla, SpaceX and founder of X Corp – is a man on a mission to get humanity to Mars. He is also the wealthiest person on the planet.

    Most recently, these controversies include his endorsement and support of Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, gestures interpreted as a Nazi salute during Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration and accusations of election interference.

    In January, sales of Tesla cars slumped across five European countries – the UK, France, Sweden, Norway and the Netherlands. Sales were down too in California – the US state with the largest car market. And according to at least one survey, Musk and his politics could be a significant part of the problem.

    When CEOs are in the public eye, their personal brands and values, and those of the companies they represent, can be hard to separate. Our research has found that, often, human identity and reputation will influence the CEO’s brand identity and reputation – and vice versa. As a human being, Musk’s personal actions and statements directly affect the companies he represents. His high-profile persona makes it difficult to separate the two.

    This is why Musk’s controversial comments and political endorsements have alienated some Tesla consumers, particularly in progressive markets such as Europe and California. In these places, Tesla has historically been popular with environmentally aware consumers. When the profiles of a CEO and his or her brand are not aligned, it’s a problem that can undermine the brand value of both the CEO and the company.

    Artists, politicians, CEOs and other public figures tend to attract fans whose personal values can at times deviate from those of the figurehead. Where this happens, devoted fans might be left at an impasse on how to respond to these figures or the products of companies or businesses they are associated with.

    A common misconception is that smitten fans are too obsessed to express their distaste. Instead, they are likely to follow blindly and defend the actions of their heroes. Intense actions of “fan armies” on social media platforms have not helped with these assumptions.

    But in fact, our research has shown that devoted fans can be critical. We found they are more likely than less devoted consumers to respond in extreme opposition when they feel betrayed by the behaviour of personalities they identify with or hold in high regard.

    In the case of personalities like Musk, whose companies produce physical products, loyal fans and consumers could respond in a number of ways. A few hardcore Tesla fans and Musk loyalists might dismiss critiques against his behaviour as attacks against free speech or their own beliefs. They are likely to continue buying Teslas regardless – and may even adjust their own beliefs to align with those of their “hero”.

    Out of step

    For other consumers, owning a Tesla may no longer signal purely their beliefs about sustainability. There may be a nod to political or ideological affiliations that do not align with their own.

    Some consumers may want to dissociate with Tesla if Musk’s behaviour is seen as problematic in their social circle. However, as a purchase requiring high involvement and commitment, switching from Tesla to another EV might be difficult. The recent trend of Tesla owners placing apology stickers on their vehicles is a way of negotiating the tension between owning a Tesla and the behaviour of the CEO they do not agree with.

    The stickers provide a means of separating themselves from Musk’s actions while managing the fear of being perceived negatively within their social groups. This is likely to result in a gradual brand erosion rather than an immediate sales drop.

    On the other hand, customers of companies such as craft beer brand BrewDog – a firm that has in the past been accused of fostering a culture of fear – may be more responsive to bad CEO behaviour. They at least can switch to an alternative brand at little cost. (BrewDog, for its part, apologised and said it was “committed to doing better”.)

    And if Remain voters dislike inventor James Dyson’s stance on Brexit, they might be annoyed but still able to justify keeping a mid-value item like a vacuum cleaner (that is used privately in the home after all) until it breaks, perhaps switching for future purchases rather than abandoning outright.

    Consumers can respond in a variety of ways when a figurehead CEO disappoints them. But brands taking blind, uncritical loyalty as a given – even from devoted fans – do so at their peril.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Is Tesla’s sales slump down to Elon Musk? – https://theconversation.com/is-teslas-sales-slump-down-to-elon-musk-248727

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Even as polarization surges, Americans believe they live in a compassionate country

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Tara Sonenshine, Edward R. Murrow Professor of Practice in Public Diplomacy, Tufts University

    Most Americans responding to a survey said compassion is declining but still strong. stellalevi/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

    Compassion comes easily to me.

    As the granddaughter of immigrants from Lithuania and Poland who spoke little English, I understand what it’s like to be treated as a stranger in America.

    As a journalist, I covered stories of war and trauma in the 1990s, including the crushing of Chinese protests in Tiananmen Square and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, followed by the Soviet Union’s collapse two years later. I covered the war between Iraq and Iran. I witnessed ethnic strife in South Africa and the toll poverty takes in Mexico.

    As a professor of cultural engagement and public diplomacy, I have watched and studied how compassion can help build and strengthen civil society.

    And having worked in senior levels of the U.S. government for Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama on international conflict resolution, I have learned that compassion is a key ingredient of peacemaking.

    Especially now, as President Donald Trump seeks to deport millions of immigrants living in the U.S. without authorization and to stop funding the U.S. Agency for International Development, which has long spent billions of dollars a year helping the world’s poorest people, compassion seems lacking among U.S. leaders.

    Perhaps that all explains my curiosity about a new study on the state of compassion in America – part of the glue that holds communities together.

    Defining compassion

    Sociologists define compassion as the human regard for the suffering of others, and the notion of using action to alleviate this pain.

    The report that caught my eye was issued in January 2025 by the Muhammad Ali Center, which the late boxer co-founded 20 years ago in Louisville, Kentucky, to advance social justice.

    As the Ali Center explains, compassion starts with the individual – self-care and personal wellness. It then radiates out to the wider community in the form of action and engagement.

    You can see compassion at work in the actions of a Pasadena, California, girl, who started a donation hub for teens affected by fires that ripped through the Los Angeles region in early 2025. She began collecting sports bras, hair ties and fashionable sweaters – helping hundreds of her peers begin to recover from their losses in material and emotional ways.

    It’s also visible in the estimated 6.8 million people in the U.S. who donate blood each year, according to the American Red Cross.

    Resilience in America

    While Ali is best known for his battles in the ring and his outspoken political views, he also helped those in need in the U.S. and other countries through large charitable donations and his participation in United Nations missions to countries like Afghanistan, where he helped deliver millions of meals to hungry people.

    The researchers who worked on the Ali Center report interviewed more than 5,000 U.S. adults living in 12 cities in 2024 in order to learn more about the prevalence of compassionate behaviors such as charitable giving, volunteering and assisting others in their recovery from disasters.

    They found that the desire to help others still animates many Americans despite the nation’s current polarization and divisive politics.

    The center has created an index it calls the “net compassion score.” It approximates the degree to which Americans give their time and money to programs and activities that nurture and strengthen their communities.

    Cities with high compassion scores have more community engagement and civic participation than those with low scores. A higher-scoring community performs better when it comes to things like public housing and mental health resources, for example. Its residents report more career opportunities, better communications between local government and citizens, more community programs and more optimism around economic development where they live.

    The report provides some clues as to what drives compassionate behavior in a city: a sense of spirituality, good education, decent health care, resources for activities like sports, and opportunities to engage in local politics.

    All told, Americans rate their country as a 9 on a scale that runs from minus 100 to 100.

    The report also identified some troubling obstacles that stand in the way of what it calls “self-compassion” – meaning how volunteers and donors treat their own mental and physical health. Frequent struggles with self-care can lead to rising levels of isolation and loneliness.

    Jeni Stepanek, left, chair of the Muhammad Ali Index; Lonnie Ali, co-founder and vice chair of the Muhammad Ali Center; and DeVone Holt, the center’s president and CEO, at the launch of the Muhammad Ali Index on Jan. 16, 2025.
    Bryan Bedder/Getty Images for Muhammad Ali Center

    Doubting their own capacity

    The 2025 Compassion Report’s findings show that many Americans still want to live in a compassionate country but also that Americans view the country as less compassionate today than four years ago.

    The report delves into gaps in compassion. About one-third of those interviewed acknowledged that there are groups toward whom they feel less compassionate toward, such as people who have been convicted of crimes, immigrants living in the U.S. without authorization and the rich.

    Only 29% said they feel compassion toward everyone.

    The report also identifies gender gaps. Despite expressing greater awareness of systemic challenges, the women surveyed reported less self-compassion than men.

    It’s not the first compassion study ever done. But I believe that this one is unique due to its focus on specific cities, and how it assessed limits on the compassion some people feel toward certain groups.

    Helping health and humanity

    The Compassion Institute, another nonprofit, seeks to weave compassion training into health care education to “create a more caring and humanitarian world.” It cites the benefits of compassion for human beings, with everything from reducing stress to alleviating the effects of disease on the mind and body.

    Academic institutions, including Stanford University, have conducted many studies on how teaching compassion can guide health care professionals to both treat patients better and achieve better outcomes.

    A team of Emory University researchers examined how training people to express more compassion can reduce stress hormones levels, triggering positive brain responses that improve immune responses.

    Offering an advantage

    Although there are plenty of adorable videos of dogs and cats behaving kindly with each other or their human companions, historically compassion has differentiated humans from animals.

    Human beings possess powers of emotional reasoning that give us an edge.

    Scholars are still working to discover how much of human compassion is rooted in emotional reasoning. Another factor they’ve identified is the aftermath of trauma. Studies have found evidence that it can increase empathy later on.

    You might imagine that in a world of hurt, there’s a deficit of compassion for others. But the Ali Center’s report keeps alive the notion that Americans remain compassionate people who want to help others.

    My experiences around the world and within the U.S. have taught me that human beings both have the power to be violent and destructive. But despite it all, there is, within all of us, the innate ability and desire to be compassionate. That is a net positive for our country.

    Tara Sonenshine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Even as polarization surges, Americans believe they live in a compassionate country – https://theconversation.com/even-as-polarization-surges-americans-believe-they-live-in-a-compassionate-country-247677

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Latin America is moving fast to protect democracy from excesses of big tech

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sebastian Smart, Senior Research Fellow in Access to Justice, Law and Technology, Anglia Ruskin University

    Brazil’s president Lula da Silva is one of the Latin American leaders who are concerned about misinformation being used to undermine democracy. Focuspix/Shutterstock

    Bosses of tech giants Meta, Google and X had front row seats at Donald Trump’s recent presidential inauguration. This special treatment highlighted the increasingly cosy relationship between leaders of technology companies and the White House.

    Just a few weeks before the ceremony, Meta boss Mark Zuckerberg had pledged to “work with President Trump to push back on governments around the world that are going after American companies and pushing to censor more”.

    Zuckerberg also highlighted, and criticised, the restrictions that the European Union and Latin American nations had put in place to legally restrict the social media giants. These include liability for moderation and limiting targeted advertising.

    However, Latin America is emerging as the region which is moving fast to protect democratic institutions from misuse of social media, and other technology.

    For instance, Brazil’s proposed fake news bill (Lei das Fake News) seeks to regulate social media and curb misinformation. It has faced strong opposition from Google. The bill is still under consideration by Brazil’s Congress.



    Read more:
    Meta’s shift to ‘community notes’ risks hurting online health info providers more than ever

    Other examples include how, in August 2024, Brazil’s Supreme Court temporarily banned X for failing to comply with legal requirements, including blocking social media accounts accused of spreading misinformation linked to the 2022 election. X had also failed to appoint a local legal official.

    The platform remained suspended until October 8 2024, when X complied with the court’s orders, paid fines totalling 28 million reals (£3.9 million), and appointed a legal representative.

    Brazil temporarily banned social media network X.

    The court decision has been part of a broader effort in Brazil to protect its democracy and restrict potential disruption from use of technology or social media.

    This push intensified after allies of then president Jair Bolsonaro used social media to spread misinformation (ahead of the 2022 elections), and then attack democratic institutions, and mobilise supporters in the lead-up to the January 8 2023 attacks on government buildings.

    Digital platforms were used to spread false claims of voter fraud and discredit mainstream media as well as spread misinformation about Bolsonaro’s opponents. These efforts fuelled conspiracy theories and protests, which later turned violent. In response, Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court tightened regulations, ordering platforms to remove false election claims.



    Read more:
    Elon Musk’s feud with Brazilian judge is much more than a personal spat − it’s about national sovereignty, freedom of speech and the rule of law

    But the region’s regulatory efforts extend beyond social media into other emerging technologies. Colombia, Ecuador and Chile – among others – are currently debating regulations of artificial intelligence (AI) and looking at AI’s human rights and environmental impact.

    Chile was the first country to recognise neurorights (brain rights) in its constitution, ensuring protections against the misuse of neurotechnology, such as brain-computer interfaces that could read or manipulate thoughts, emotions or cognitive processes. These developing technologies could be used in medicine, but also raise ethical concerns about privacy and cognitive freedom.

    Political leaders across Latin America also regularly challenge global technology leaders over their effect on society. Chile’s president, Gabriel Boric, has criticised Elon Musk’s support for far-right movements. Brazil’s president, Lula da Silva, said the world did not have to put up with Musk’s “far-right free-for-all just because he is rich”. Brazil’s first lady, Janja Lula da Silva, was even more direct. During a global summit on social media regulation, she declared: “I’m not afraid of you, fuck you, Elon Musk.”

    History of authoritarianism

    Many people in Latin America remember how political power was abused in the recent past to undermine democracy. During the military dictatorships of the 1970s and 1980s in countries such as Chile, Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay, many businesses supported repressive regimes.

    After the coup in Chile in 1973, Augusto Pinochet’s authoritarian government privatised industries and cut social protections with help from the Chicago Boys, a group of US-trained Latin American economists. The regime crushed dissent through state violence, and imprisoned and tortured thousands of people.

    In the early 1970s, Chilean president Salvador Allende had tried to establish the Cybersyn Project, an ambitious initiative to create an economic planning system using networked telex machines and an early form of algorithmic decision-making. It was designed to enhance state control over the economy, while reducing dependence on foreign corporations. But Cybersyn was dismantled after the US-backed military coup that installed Pinochet’s dictatorship.

    Today, Latin America may be better positioned to counter foreign influence than it was in the 1970s. Brazil’s leadership at the recent G20 global summit, where it successfully pushed for social media and artificial intelligence regulation, showed that there is a regional will to push back against the demands, and power, of Silicon Valley’s technology giants.

    The question is whether these countries can sustain their efforts against pressure from big companies, economic pressure (such as tariffs) and shifting geopolitical alliances. If they do, Latin American nations could provide a much-needed counterweight to corporate influence, and an example to the rest of the world of what could be achieved.

    Sebastian Smart receives funding from FONDECYT-Chile

    – ref. Latin America is moving fast to protect democracy from excesses of big tech – https://theconversation.com/latin-america-is-moving-fast-to-protect-democracy-from-excesses-of-big-tech-248487

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Is it true you need to love yourself before you can find romantic love? Here’s what philosophers say

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tony Milligan, Research Fellow in the Philosophy of Ethics, King’s College London

    The Dreamer by Cecilia Beaux (1894). Wiki Commons

    Consider the popular idea that you need to love yourself first, before you can find love from others. It was set out in the German psychologist Erich Fromm’s book The Art of Loving in 1956 and has been popularised in recent years by drag queen RuPaul’s catchphrase “if you can’t love yourself, how in the hell are you gonna love somebody else?”

    But is it actually true? If we think of self-love in an extreme sense, as raging egocentricity, then the answer is a resounding “no”. Philosophers who reject self-love do so for this reason. Iris Murdoch is a case in point. She warned her readers that the proper direction of attention should always be outwards. Love others, not yourself.

    This is a very sacrificial way of thinking about love. If we think about love as the most important way of valuing anything, then of course self-love is desirable. The person who has no self-love has no proper sense of their own worth as a unique, feeling being.

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    This six-week newsletter course from The Conversation will bring you research-backed advice and tools to help improve your relationships, your career, your free time and your mental health – no supplements or skincare required. Sign up here to start your glow-up at any time.

    This is the insight captured by the idea that we must love ourselves first. It’s endorsed by the classical philosophical tradition and is especially evident in discussions of friendship by Aristotle and Cicero where a friend is “another self” – someone who is due the same love that we have for ourselves.

    They treat love for ourselves as a basic background to a good life, and hold that something has gone badly wrong when any of us lacks such an attitude. This is a far less sacrificial way of thinking. One in which being loved and loving ourselves turn out to be inseparable.

    This is the insight that the catchphrase about loving yourself first plays upon. But it puts things the wrong way around. Coming to love ourselves often happens as a result of being loved by another person. It is an outcome, not a first step.

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    In your 20s and 30s, you may find that all around you people have paired off. There is a game going on, played out with varying degrees of success. Some people find themselves always on the outside of this game. They have never had a girlfriend or boyfriend. Never even received a Valentine’s Day card. They may have wanted these things, and waited for them, but nothing has happened.

    Many people live like this, with an exclusion from romantic love that makes it feel almost impossible to form an appropriate sense of self-worth. Those in this position cannot will themselves into self-love as a way of propelling themselves into the game. And they also cannot educate themselves into self-love.

    In your 20s and 30s, you may find that all around you, people have paired off. Detail from Hesperus, the Evening Star, Sacred to Lovers by Joseph Noel Paton (1857).
    Kelvingrove Art Gallery and Museum

    Even philosophers cannot do so. Immanuel Kant argued in his Groundwork of the Metaphysics of Morals (1785) that we are all autonomous rational agents and that this makes us equally valuable. But for those without a romantic history, their experience is not one of being equally valued.

    What they need is not a special effort of will but the experience of being loved. Or of having been loved by someone that they themselves have loved. We cannot draw a sense of our own value from the love of someone we do not admire, or from the kind of abusive person who systematically undermines our sense of self-esteem. Being loved by someone dreadful, or just wildly unpleasant, is unlikely to fill any of us with warm fuzzy feelings. No matter how smitten we are. No matter what flowers and chocolate they send.

    Being loved by someone we love, someone we value, is a different matter. Nothing shows us our own value so effectively.

    A good deal of my own sense of value, for example, does not come from a recognition of my autonomy or from a self-willed effort to think nice thoughts about myself. It stems instead from being loved by my wife Suzanne. Without this experience of being loved, everything else would be diminished.

    Being lovable

    Most of us enjoy an approximation to this experience of being loved long before we ever experience actual romantic love.

    Most of us have been loved by our parents, and up to a point by our siblings and friends. We even may have been loved by our pets – or at least by the dog, if not by the cat. But at a certain point, we want love of a more intimate and grownup sort. Love from someone who could simply pass us by in the street, but who does not do so. Without it, an adult sense of self-worth may remain permanently out of reach.

    This does not mean to say that that every day must be a whirlwind of romance, or even that we have to be continuously in a relationship.

    Suzanne and myself seem to have mated for life. We still buy one another flowers and chocolates for Valentine’s Day rather than gift vouchers and lawnmowers. Suzanne gets the flowers, I get the chocolates. It is a ritual in which we both win. But many people are just as content moving from one relationship to another.

    What seems to matter in each case is seeing ourselves as lovable. Whether we are serial daters, or hibernate with a lifelong partner like two creatures in a burrow. What we really need is the experience of having been loved romantically, at some point in time. And the knowledge that it could happen again. A recognition that we may sometimes have bad romantic luck, and may have made mistakes – but that we remain fundamentally lovable.

    Tony Milligan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Is it true you need to love yourself before you can find romantic love? Here’s what philosophers say – https://theconversation.com/is-it-true-you-need-to-love-yourself-before-you-can-find-romantic-love-heres-what-philosophers-say-247298

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump tariffs: there may be silver linings in the trade war storm clouds

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Scott Mahadeo, Senior Lecturer in Macroeconomics, University of Portsmouth

    bella1105/Shutterstock

    US tariffs – both threatened and imposed – on trade partners including China, Canada, Mexico and the EU quickly set off waves of retaliatory measures. The latest commodities in the sights of president Donald Trump are steel and aluminium – with tariffs of 25% announced for all imports. But not only do these taxes disrupt well-established trade flows, they ignite concerns over the very future of globalisation.

    Yet amid this uncertainty, it’s possible that there may be a silver lining. Trump may inadvertently be paving the way for a realignment of trade relationships and the emergence of new economic blocs. Such partnerships could foster more resilient and regionally focused economic cooperation.

    Trump’s decision to levy tariffs on its major trading partners disrupts the fundamental tenets of the gravity model of trade. According to this theory, trade between two nations is largely determined by their economic size and proximity. For instance, introducing tariffs to the close economic relationship between the US and Canada, underpinned by their shared border, effectively increases the distance between the two by raising costs and reducing the volume of bilateral trade.

    However, these disruptions can inadvertently encourage diversification of trade relationships. As companies and governments seek to mitigate the risks associated with tariffs, they may begin to explore new markets and alternative supply chains. This could ultimately lead to a more dispersed and – potentially – more stable global trade system.

    Yet as Trump continues to test the limits of his power, he is learning it is not so easy to defy gravity. Already, the president has dialled down tariffs on Canada and Mexico, while China has struck back with retaliatory measures.

    One positive spin-off of the trade war may be the reinforcement of regional alliances. With traditional trade flows disrupted, countries are increasingly incentivised to strengthen ties with neighbouring economies.

    North American outlook

    Canada and Mexico, long considered natural trading partners of the US, might pivot towards deepening their economic cooperation. They may also look to bilateral agreements with other partners as well as seeking new markets, strengthening ties with China and Japan.

    The USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) provides a strong foundation for trade. But attempts to dismantle this arrangement could see Canada and Mexico accelerating efforts to build closer economic ties with other regions, reducing their exposure to the US market.

    Trump reveals his plans for sweeping steel tariffs on “everybody”.

    Trump’s planned tariffs on steel threaten to undermine the USMCA. After all, it is designed to foster integrated supply chains and low-tariff economic cooperation among the three countries. This is likely to escalate trade tensions across the bloc, forcing a reassessment of the trade agreement’s key terms and destabilising the established relationships.

    European Union outlook

    The imposition of tariffs on the EU could lead to deepening integration among its member states. Faced with new pressures from the US, the EU might accelerate initiatives aimed at consolidating internal trade, harmonising regulations and promoting intra-European supply chains.

    Member states, with France at the forefront, are already advocating for a united response to counteract US protectionism. They hope to signal a strong political commitment to resist the pressures from Trump.

    Asia-Pacific outlook

    China, as the world’s second-largest economy behind the US, may seek to expand its trade relationships in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. As China’s economic growth model is export-led, it may seek stronger partnerships with regional players and invest in new trade agreements. This could potentially give rise to an even more integrated Asian economic community.

    A new economic order

    Whatever else plays out, these tariff wars signal a reordering of the global economic landscape. Such disruptions, though painful in the short term, can create long-term changes that rebalance economic systems. The natural trading partner hypothesis reinforces this view by highlighting how countries with shared cultural, historical and geographical ties are likely to deepen their economic relationships in the face of external shocks.

    Table of US trade

    Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (2025)
    Author provided

    In this new order, traditional superpowers may find themselves challenged by unified responses from other nations. By imposing tariffs, the US risks isolating itself from these emerging alliances, while its major trading partners may become united in their efforts to counterbalance rising American protectionism.



    Read more:
    Brics: growth of China-led bloc raises questions about a rapidly shifting world order

    The ripple effects of the US tariff row extend well beyond the directly involved countries, with significant implications for global trade networks. For the UK, already coping with the aftermath of Brexit, this new environment offers both challenges and opportunities.

    With US-led protectionism disrupting traditional trade channels, the UK could seize the opportunity to diversify its export markets by forging stronger ties with the EU and digging deeper into its Commonwealth alliances. It could reinforce its position as a hub for international commerce while continuing to cultivate its relationship with the US. Managing Trump is a delicate balancing act for prime minister Keir Starmer, as both are expected to be in office for four years.

    A word of caution – negotiating international trade agreements is a complex and lengthy process. This is the hard lesson learned by the UK. Its trade with the EU (its most important commercial partner) shrank after Brexit, driving the quest for new trading partners and agreements. But these fruits are slow to materialise.

    The UK formally requested accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in February 2021, but only signed the accession protocol in July 2023.

    And we should not forget that in 2024 the UK halted its trade talks with Canada after two years of negotiations, due to disagreements over the standards on some agricultural products.

    Tariffs come with challenges, but they might also be the beginning of a slow and painful change towards a more balanced and robust global economic order.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump tariffs: there may be silver linings in the trade war storm clouds – https://theconversation.com/trump-tariffs-there-may-be-silver-linings-in-the-trade-war-storm-clouds-249526

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: With a ‘tradwife’ starring in Married at First Sight, a nostalgic vision of womanhood takes centre stage

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christina Vogels, Senior Lecturer, School of Communication Studies, Auckland University of Technology

    Da Antipina/Shutterstock

    When Married at First Sight Australia bride Lauren Hall said her main goal was to “serve” her man, the reality show contestant was reflecting a growing trend in western culture – the so-called tradwife lifestyle.

    Tradwives are women who choose to take up traditional gendered roles within the home, centred around serving their husband and children. This version of wifehood is underpinned by a deference to one’s husband.

    Because of this, tradwives tend to be financially dependent on their husbands and many also give over decision-making rights to their husbands. In essence, the tradwife lifestyle rejects the past seven decades of feminism.

    But why is being a tradwife growing in popularity in 2025, and how has it become so marketable?

    The rise (or return) of tradwives

    Social media is partly to blame. The tradwife trend has risen in visibility across platforms such as Instagram and TikTok.

    Influencer Hannah Neeleman from Ballerina Farm is one of the most prolific tradwife influencers, topping ten-million followers on her Instagram page.

    Other Instagram accounts such as Ekaterina Anderson and Aria Lewis are popular in their own right, with followers ranging from 100,000 to 200,000.

    All promote a joy of domesticity. They post about their daily tasks of baking, preparing meals, raising children and, for many, connecting to the land and living sustainably.

    However, underneath this joy of domesticity is often an advocation of subservience. Many tradwives openly promote the daily pleasure they get from serving their husbands, who they argue are the “natural” head of the household.

    Marketing a romanticised lifestyle

    Why, then, is this version of femininity so desirable?

    For one, tradwives market a romanticised lifestyle. Theirs is reminiscent of the 1950s: a golden age economically, where employment was high, consumables were affordable and the male breadwinner was supported at home by a subservient wife.

    The tradwife lifestyle also promotes a pioneering domesticity. Tradwife influencers often post about baking their own bread, make their own preserves and mending their family’s clothes.

    Many also wear pioneering-type clothing – blouses and long skirts with the signature tradwife apron. A number of tradwives such as Aria Lewis also have their own clothing and merchandise lines for their followers to buy.

    People’s need for “ontological security” (security of the self) – a term coined in 1984 by sociologist Anthony Giddens – is another reason why the tradwife lifestyle is followed by so many women today.

    Broadly speaking, ontological security denotes a desire for a stable identity. Academics Catarina Kinnvall and Jennifer Mitzen offer this explanation:

    As the world is becoming more fragile, contentious, and conflictual, we are, Giddens argues, prone to seek a sense of security, a “protective cocoon”, in established norms and routines and in beliefs about particular narratives of home and secure pasts.

    The tradwife identity offers women this security: a stable, strictly defined and seemingly uncomplicated identity that is predicated solely on serving one’s husband and children. The nostalgia for the 1950s and the pioneering “return to basics” life feeds this sense of security.

    A double entanglement

    It also seems women are desiring the tradwife lifestyle due to the damaging effects of “double entanglement”.

    Society constantly tells women they can “have it all”: sexual freedom, any career they desire and an ability to choose whether or not to become mothers.

    In reality, however, this is an empty promise. Sexually assertive women, women who appear overly dominant in the workplace, and women who choose not to mother are often heavily shamed in society.

    Herein lies the double-entanglement. Women are told they can choose how to live their lives but are then shamed for choosing ways of living that are actually seen as unfeminine.

    It is possible the tradwife identity offers women a version of femininity that provides safe haven from being shamed as “pariahs” in society.

    Sadly, though, there is no safe haven. When you strip away the romanticism of domesticity, the tradwife lifestyle only furthers the difficulties women face today by breeding a deep misogyny that is based on an intense subjugation of women.

    The new female right

    This misogyny is further entrenched by many tradwives’ association with the far-right women’s movement, which is gaining popularity within the United States.

    The BBC’s America’s New Female Right documentary explores the rise of this movement and how it further feeds into narratives that femininity ought to be based on submission to men.

    It seems this version of womanhood will only gain momentum as the world veers even farther to the far right. The uncertainty of today – with frequent economic crises, climate emergencies and other crises of humanity – will only fuel the need for a nostalgic, seemingly simpler life.

    On the surface, this is what many feel a traditional return to womanhood offers. But the costs of giving up the gains of feminism are not clear.

    Christina Vogels does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. With a ‘tradwife’ starring in Married at First Sight, a nostalgic vision of womanhood takes centre stage – https://theconversation.com/with-a-tradwife-starring-in-married-at-first-sight-a-nostalgic-vision-of-womanhood-takes-centre-stage-248861

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How smarter greenhouses could improve the UK’s food security

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sven Batke, Associate Head of Research and Knowledge Exchange – Reader in Plant Science, Edge Hill University

    A tomato greenhouse in north-west England. Sven Batke, CC BY-NC-ND

    When was the last time you walked into a supermarket and marvelled at the abundance of exotic fruits and vegetables, even in the dead of winter? This luxury, now an expectation, only became common in the mid-20th century, reaching the UK some decades later.

    Not long ago, winter produce in UK supermarkets was limited; root vegetables like carrots, potatoes, and parsnips, alongside hardy greens such as kale and cabbage. Fruits were even scarcer, mostly apples and pears. Today’s variety owes much to advances in global trade and smarter greenhouses, which help extend growing seasons and bring once seasonal produce to shelves all year round.

    Fast forward just one generation, and now supermarket shelves are stocked with dragon fruit, bananas, coconuts, avocados, and a variety of exotic nuts and vegetables. These items not only hail from the farthest reaches of the globe, but have also been bred to offer consumers unique sensory experiences or health benefits, such as higher concentrations of antioxidants. It’s no surprise that most of these exotic foods are often not grown locally or even within Europe.

    According to the latest government figures from 2023, 53% of the vegetables consumed in the UK are imported, and only 17% of fruits are grown locally. The contrast is stark when you look at exports, which remain relatively small (about 100,000 tonnes in 2023).

    UK food security could be improved by growing more produce inside smart greenhouses.
    Sven Batke, CC BY-NC-ND

    How often do you eat a UK-grown strawberry or tomato outside summer? Many such vegetables come from the Netherlands, Morocco and Spain, while most fruit comes from Colombia, Costa Rica and Brazil. No surprise, given their warmer climates. The UK averages 9-12°C annually, compared to Morocco’s 18-20°C.

    Increasing demand for exotic foods available year-round has made the UK’s food system vulnerable to external market fluctuations. Disruptions, such as trade barriers following Brexit or global hikes in energy prices due to the Ukraine war have placed supply chains under strain.

    Empty supermarket shelves could become more common if we see disruptions in supply chains, putting further pressure on the undervalued domestic growing sector. But could the UK grow more of its own food and reduce reliance on volatile global markets?

    Hi-tech solutions

    Protected horticulture (specifically in the food sector, as opposed to ornamental plants) involves growing fruits and vegetables year-round in controlled environments, such as polytunnels, greenhouses and indoor vertical farms.

    These facilities regulate temperature, humidity and light, and in some cases, even atmospheric gases like CO₂. Water and nutrient inputs are also tightly controlled, reducing waste by up to 95% compared to traditional field-grown methods. This allows year-around protection from the elements. They are often overlooked despite holding the key to solving some of the current food security challenges.



    Read more:
    Four myths about vertical farming debunked by an expert

    As part of the Greenhouse Innovation Consortium, my team of biologists, geographers and I recently mapped over 12,000 greenhouses in Britain. Estimates suggest that around 70% of these structures are more than 40 years old.

    So why haven’t we seen more UK-grown fruits and vegetables on supermarket shelves if we have the technology to produce them? One major reason is the high energy demand of indoor growing, especially in cold and cloudy weather – something we are all too familiar with in the UK. For example, 2024 has seen one of the worse years in total recorded sun hours.

    The UK’s horticulture sector has also received very little government support over the years. There are few incentives for growers to adopt new technology or upgrade infrastructure. Many UK growers still have not adopted technologies like automatic harvest robots or AI-controlled systems, and even simple upgrades like LED growing lights could boost yield by over 50%. However, resource management in this sector requires experience and making these changes is a fine balancing act.

    Most British greenhouses are more than 40 years old so investment is needed to upgrade them.
    Sven Batke, CC BY-NC-ND

    But the future can be bright – if we choose to make it so. To grow more produce all year round without compromising on flavour, the sector needs more investment in local expertise and cutting-edge facilities.

    From precision horticulture to advanced AI-controlled greenhouses, with the right drive and investment, the UK could move towards a more sustainable food production system. Sweden for example is currently investing over £700 million into horticulture.

    While achieving 100% self-sufficiency may not be feasible due to other demands on land, such as housing, conservation, and industry, creating a more resilient and less dependent food sector would benefit everyone (not to mention reducing food miles).

    The UK’s food future doesn’t have to rely on global markets. With investment and innovation, the country can build a resilient, sustainable food system. Year-round demand for exotic produce has exposed supply chain fragility, but fostering domestic growth and technology can change the narrative.

    It’s not about turning back the clock, but about making the most of what the UK has while driving forward the solutions that make sense for the country’s future. The answer is not just more local food. It’s smarter, more resilient food systems that can weather whatever challenges lie ahead.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Sven Batke works together with industry growers and manufactures in the horticulture industry. The work we are doing is part of the Greenhouse Innovation Consortium, which aims to support local growers in the UK.

    – ref. How smarter greenhouses could improve the UK’s food security – https://theconversation.com/how-smarter-greenhouses-could-improve-the-uks-food-security-248719

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why is there an increase in lung cancer among women who have never smoked?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Pinar Uysal-Onganer, Reader in Molecular Biology, University of Westminster

    Lung cancer cases are increasing in people who have never smoked, especially in women, a new study by the World Health Organization’s cancer agency has found.

    The findings, published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, reveal that lung adenocarcinoma, the most common type of lung cancer among non-smokers, accounts for nearly 60% of lung cancer cases in women compared to 45% in men.

    About 2.5 million new lung cancer cases were diagnosed worldwide in 2022 – an increase of 300,000 since 2020. The study suggests that environmental factors, particularly air pollution, along with genetic predisposition and immune responses, may be driving this rise in non-smoking-related lung cancer.

    One of the most significant risk factors for lung cancer in non-smokers is genetic mutations, especially mutations in the EGFR gene. This gene provides instructions for producing a protein on the surface of cells involved in growth and division.

    Mutations in this gene drive uncontrolled cell division and tumour growth. They are found in 50% of lung adenocarcinomas in non-smoking Asian women and 19% in non-smoking western women – compared with 10–20% in non-smoking men.

    Advances in genetic testing have made it easier to detect these mutations. However, rising exposure to air pollution, which is known to trigger EGFR mutations – may also be contributing to their increasing prevalence.

    Other genetic changes that drive tumour growth include mutations in the genes ALK and ROS1, which are found in about 5% of lung cancer cases in non-smokers. These mutations are more often seen in younger non-smoking women, particularly in Asia. Thankfully, improved screening programmes, especially in east Asian countries, have helped detect these mutations more frequently.

    Mutations in TP53, a crucial tumour-suppressing gene, also appear to be more commonly found in non-smoking women than in men. This gene prevents cells from becoming cancerous, and its mutation leads to out-of-control cell growth. The hormone oestrogen can interact with TP53 mutations, making lung cancer more likely to develop in women over time.

    Another gene that is worth mentioning is KRAS. Mutations in this gene are usually associated with smoking-related lung cancer, however, they are increasingly being found in non-smokers – particularly women.

    Recent studies suggest that exposure to tiny particles in the air, or PM2.5 (so-called because they are 2.5 micrometres or smaller) may be responsible for these mutations in non-smoker women.

    Since PM2.5 levels continue to rise in many towns and cities, exposure to these particles could be another factor not only in lung cancer but also in other types of cancers in women.

    In addition to genetic predisposition, hormone fluctuations may influence tumour growth in women. Oestrogen receptors are found in lung tissue, and experimental studies suggest that oestrogen promotes tumour growth. Studies have shown.) that women who receive hormone-replacement therapy (HRT), have a lower risk of lung cancer compared with women not on HRT, suggesting that natural oestrogen cycles may provide some level of protection.

    Chronic inflammation

    Beyond genetics and hormones, chronic inflammation could also explain why lung cancer is rising among non-smoking women.

    Women are more likely to develop autoimmune diseases than men, and problems with the immune system can play a role in cancer. Persistent inflammation can cause repeated damage to tissues, leading to changes in DNA and promote abnormal cell growth, all of which raise the risk of cancer.

    Women with autoimmune diseases like rheumatoid arthritis and lupus have a higher chance of getting lung cancer, possibly because of long-lasting inflammation in the lungs. Inflammatory molecules – like interleukin-6 and tumour necrosis factor-alpha – can exacerbate the cancer by helping tumour cells survive and spread.

    Autoimmune diseases have been increasing globally, probably because of environmental changes, changes in diet and shifts in gut microbiomes (the constellation of microorganisms that live in our guts and play an important role in our health). Because women are disproportionately affected by autoimmune conditions, they may be more vulnerable to chronic inflammation-driven cancer.

    As life expectancy increases, more women are accumulating years of immune system activation, leading to a higher risk of developing inflammation-related lung cancer. In addition, things like pollution, household chemicals and work-related exposures can make immune system problems worse, increasing the risk of cancer even more.

    Air pollution has long been recognised as a significant factor in lung cancer risk, but emerging evidence suggests that women may be particularly vulnerable. Studies show that women’s lung anatomy and function make them more susceptible to the harmful effects of pollutants. Women’s lungs are smaller than men’s, with narrower airways, which might cause more fine particles, like PM2.5, to get trapped in their lungs.

    Additionally, oestrogen has been shown to amplify inflammatory responses when exposed to pollutants, potentially making lung tissue more prone to damage that can lead to lung cancer.

    Women are more exposed to air pollution than men, but in a different way. While men often face pollution from factory work, women spend more time indoors where toxic fumes from cooking and heating are more common.

    Air pollution in the home, especially from things like wood, coal and kerosene, can raise the risk of lung cancer. Women working in places such as textile factories, beauty salons and hospitals are also more exposed to harmful chemicals that can damage the lungs. In rapidly growing cities, women are often in areas with high traffic and factory pollution.

    More significant

    Women are biologically more likely than men to develop certain genetic mutations that increase the risk of lung cancer. However, factors like rising pollution, changes in hormone levels, immune system imbalances and longer life expectancy are making these risks even more significant.

    Recent research suggests that HPV, a virus, may also contribute to lung cancer in women, underscoring the need for further study and preventative measures.

    Understanding the roles of immune, hormonal, genetic and viral factors is key to spotting lung cancer early, creating more effective treatments and developing better ways to prevent it.

    Pinar Uysal-Onganer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why is there an increase in lung cancer among women who have never smoked? – https://theconversation.com/why-is-there-an-increase-in-lung-cancer-among-women-who-have-never-smoked-249406

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Most animals have their own version of tree rings – here’s how we biologists use them to help species thrive

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anna Sturrock, Senior Lecturer, School of Life Sciences, University of Essex

    Narwhal tusks reveal how they’re affected by declining Arctic ice. Saifullahphtographer

    We have a natural fascination with time – how landscapes have been carved over millennia, how our bodies grow and sag with age, how the stars traverse the sky each night. Scientists probe the layers beneath our feet to understand the secrets of our past. Geologists and palaeontologists sample ice, rock and fossils to reconstruct past climates and species and archaeologists pick through ancient “dustbins” (middens) in excavation sites to reimagine our historical dinner time.

    Similarly, most living things produce records of their own existence in layered body tissues – often in the form of daily or yearly growth bands. The most familiar of these so-called biochronologies are tree rings, which form every year in response to seasonal cycles in temperature and rainfall.

    Dendrochronology – the art of tree-ring counting – allows us to precisely date trees. Based on the rings in its trunk, a bristlecone pine in eastern California known as Methuselah is said to be the world’s oldest living thing at 4,856 years old.

    Methuselah, the world’s oldest living tree.
    Xiaoling Sun

    It’s not just the number of rings, either – their width tells us whether the tree was thriving in a particular year, or suffering due to drought. Chemical compounds locked into the wood offer clues about atmospheric changes, including those produced by volcanic eruptions.

    Tree rings are famously detailed life records.
    Veroja

    Let’s not not stop at trees – your own tooth cement, nails and hair are forming chemical and visual records of your own life experience right now, storing traces of food, drink and drugs you have consumed. They can also produce “stress marks” during trauma or pregnancy, when a mother literally breaks her own body tissues to grow and nourish her baby.

    Elsewhere in the natural world, some of the more surprising examples of biochronologies include whale earwax, narwhal tusks, bird feathers and the bony plates (scutes) on turtle shells.

    Turtle power.
    VLADIMIR VK

    Recent studies, for instance, have applied forensic analyses of whale earwax to explore their stress levels during historic whaling days. Narwhal tusks, meanwhile, have helped explain how declining Arctic sea ice has affected their diet and exposure to pollution.

    The importance of otoliths

    In my lab, we work with aquatic animals – from fish scales and ear bones to squid eyes and beaks. Like decoding a biological black box, we analyse chemical constituents in the growth layers to reconstruct a detailed picture of the individual’s prior health, diet and movements.

    Some biochronologies are more “fickle”, forming layers at unpredictable rates, including the eye lenses of fish and turtle scutes. Others, such as bird feathers, are shorter lived due to periodic moulting. Yet they all share the important feature of serial growth, producing valuable archives that we can probe to build a picture of the animal’s life.

    Probably the best known biochronometer in the animal world – and my own personal obsession – is the fish otolith, or ear bone (Ancient Greek: oto is ear and líthos is stone). We humans have tiny ear stones (otoconia), whose primary function is to maintain balance, but fish otoliths are also crucial for hearing, as well as featuring specific properties that make them particularly valuable markers of biochronology.

    Unlike “normal” bones, fish otoliths are composed of calcium carbonate crystals and are metabolically inert, meaning they never get broken down and rebuilt. Instead they keep growing – even during periods of starvation – producing daily and annual growth bands.

    These beautiful crystalline structures are also highly resistant to degradation and vary in shape between species. This enables scientists to use a combination of “otolith atlases” and artificial intelligence to identify popular choices of fish from otoliths left behind in ancient human middens, as well as in the contemporary stomach contents or poop of predators such as seals, albatrosses and squid.

    Otoliths have driven my research for almost two decades. I’ve been fascinated by animal migration and the ecological and evolutionary processes underpinning these long and dangerous journeys ever since taking a “movement ecology” class at the University of Edinburgh with the brilliant Professor Victoria Braithwaite in 2003.

    I decided I wanted to track marine animals myself, and my lab now primarily uses otolith and eye lens chemistry to reconstruct fish habitat use and growth rates, and the temperatures they experienced through their lives. We are now also investigating how well these same structures track reproductive events, chronic stress and exposure to pollution.

    And we are working with international teams to understand how hypoxia (low oxygen zones or “dead zones”) affect fish growth and reproduction. Ultimately, this data allows us to connect stressful events in a fish’s past to its lifetime health and survival, which is important for predicting a species’ persistence.

    For example, a recent study used otolith-derived metabolic rates of Atlantic bluefin tuna to show their vulnerability to future climate change. Meanwhile in California, we used otolith chemistry to understand the impact of dams on salmon migration and survival, revealing that – on many rivers – dams have made it impossible for salmon to escape into the mountains during summer, which is essential for enabling them to resist the increasingly severe droughts afflicting the region.

    Conservation

    Fisheries managers read the rings on millions of otoliths each year to track individual cohorts and look for warning signs of overfishing, but I would argue that biochronologies are still underused in this field. For example, fisheries managers could use otoliths to track the movements of juveniles too small to be tagged (those under 4cm long), since chemical markers make it possible to identify where they grew up. This would allow these managers to earmark productive or struggling “nursery habitats” for protection or improvement, respectively.

    We consistently find that rivers and estuaries play a critical role in the survival and growth of valuable species such as salmon, sea bass and anchovies. Juvenile fish often have such high natural mortality rates – often only 1% survive to their first birthday – that even small improvements to their survival can result in large boosts in abundance and make wild fisheries more sustainable.

    Small improvements to survival of wild salmon could make a huge difference to their sustainability.
    Jakub Rutkiewicz

    As such, let’s keep up the momentum to clean and restore our rivers and beaches, and to embrace monitoring tools such as biochronologies to learn which actions produce the biggest benefits. Next time you think about banging the glass at an aquarium, just remember that the fish inside are listening – and recording you too.

    Anna Sturrock receives funding from a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship

    – ref. Most animals have their own version of tree rings – here’s how we biologists use them to help species thrive – https://theconversation.com/most-animals-have-their-own-version-of-tree-rings-heres-how-we-biologists-use-them-to-help-species-thrive-249507

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What is Sudan virus and how similar is it to Ebola?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow in Global Health, University of Southampton

    The Ugandan government and the World Health Organization recently confirmed an outbreak of Sudan virus disease. The index (first-known) case of this outbreak is thought to be a 32-year-old male nurse from a hospital in Kampala, the capital of Uganda.

    The WHO reported two main clusters, related to the patient’s family and a hospital cluster. At the time of writing, the index case is the sole recorded death. The second case was the patient’s wife, and as of February 11, there were nine confirmed cases.

    Outbreaks of this virus are relatively rare. This new outbreak is the ninth to have been recorded since 1976 when the virus was first identified and – as was practice at the time – named after the location where this first outbreak took place, southern Sudan.

    A 2022 Sudan virus outbreak also in Uganda resulted in 164 cases and 77 deaths (a fatality rate of 47%). There are no treatments or vaccines against the Sudan virus.

    Sudan virus disease is essentially a disease very similar to Ebola. The Ebola virus has caused several high-profile outbreaks. The west Africa 2014-16 outbreak was the largest with 28,600 cases and 11,325 deaths.

    The Sudan and Ebola viruses both come from the orthoebolavirus family, but they have different proteins and genetic components, so the immune response to each virus is different. As such, it’s thought that the Ebola vaccines will not be effective against the Sudan virus.

    For the current Sudan virus outbreak, there are efforts to deploy vaccine candidates and also monoclonal antibody medicines. These medicines create antibodies that aim to stop the virus from replicating.

    In 2022, the WHO recommended two monoclonal antibodies for use against Ebola. There is enthusiasm for similar research related to treatments for the Sudan virus.

    A phase 1 vaccine trial, the earliest phase of testing in humans, is underway.

    The similarities in structure between these two types of orthoebolavirus mean that the symptoms in patients are similar. The illness for both viruses may typically begin with fever, aches and fatigue with potential progression onto diarrhoea, vomiting and unexplained bleeding.

    Laboratory testing is needed to differentiate between the diseases, though the urgent need for isolation remains.

    Early supportive treatment has been shown to reduce mortality rates of Sudan and Ebola virus disease, giving the patient time for their body to recover. This usually involves replacing fluids and treating pain, fever and other possible infections, such as malaria.

    The reporting of the 2022 Sudan virus disease outbreak described how patients would first visit care facilities that were outside of the mainstream health service. There were many new infections across late August 2022 from within private health facilities that drove transmission early on in the outbreak. This suggested a low level of infection prevention and control, and quite possibly a lack of equipment and good practice to contain serious infections.

    When cases were confirmed, most known contacts who developed symptoms were referred to specialist units for testing and hospital care. These referrals typically happened in October, and the outbreak was declared over by the end of November 2022. Although we lack vital tools such as effective vaccines and drugs, contact tracing and appropriate infection control can contain serious outbreaks such as these.

    Climate change driving distribution

    Climate change will have an effect on the geographical distribution of new and emerging infections, such as Ebola and Sudan virus disease and the Crimean-Congo virus. Mosquito-borne diseases, such as malaria and yellow fever, will find new habitats while dengue and West Nile virus are already becoming more common in Europe and North America.

    International cooperation for addressing global health threats is vital. However, these efforts will be hindered by the volatility and lack of coherence from key stakeholders such as the US government. The world faces uncertain times, and these are ideal circumstances for the Sudan virus and other infectious diseases to thrive.

    Michael Head has previously received funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Research England and the UK Department for International Development, and currently receives funding from the UK Medical Research Foundation.

    – ref. What is Sudan virus and how similar is it to Ebola? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-sudan-virus-and-how-similar-is-it-to-ebola-249312

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘When you’ve got nothing in your belly, you can’t concentrate’: teachers on the food banks they run in schools

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sharon Vince, Lecturer in Education and Early Years, University of West London

    Anna Kuzmenko/Shutterstock

    Across England, schools are running food banks to help the children and their families. Research suggests that 21% of schools in England now offer some form of food charity.

    In our recently published book, we carried out research at 12 schools and nurseries with food banks across England, interviewing 30 teachers, headteachers and school staff who ran the food banks. We wanted to explore why there has been such considerable growth in the education sector offering food to families, and the impact it has on children, parents and school staff.

    Many of the schools and nurseries that we visited as part of our research initially set up the food bank in response to the COVID pandemic. This is in keeping with findings from previous research, although the cost-of-living crisis was the stimulus for others.

    Learning better

    Staff in the schools we visited told us that children could not learn if they were hungry. “You know what it’s like when you have nothing to eat and you’ve got nothing in your belly, you can’t concentrate,” one teacher said.

    Through addressing children’s hunger, the school staff we spoke to believed, schools can improve children’s concentration and motivation to learn.

    This echoed the views of almost 18,000 teachers in a 2023 National Education Union survey: 87% of school staff in the survey said that pupils they taught were unable to concentrate as a result of poverty, and over half said that they or their school were providing extra food for children during the school day.

    One headteacher in our study talked about the impact of the food bank on one of the children in their school:

    So he came in all full of beans. ‘I’ve got all gold. Look at my work. Can I have a sticker? ’ And I was like, ‘Someone’s had their Weetabix,’ and they’re like, ‘Yeah, I did. I had that special Weetabix’, … And then it turned out the dad had been into the food bank … that’s why, that’s why I’m doing this.

    The teachers believed that having a food bank at school also led to an improvement in learning and wellbeing through other means, such as reduced family stress. “If you meet the need of the parent, they’re then available to meet the need of the child,” one school staff member said.

    The food banks also helped build closer relationships between families and the school. Teachers told us that families appreciated the support and became more willing to approach the school for help with other issues.

    The caring role of schools

    Beyond the need to improve learning outcomes, however, the main justification for running a food bank was the moral imperative to support families who needed it and could not access help anywhere else. In the words of one teacher: “We’re humans and our natural instinct is to care. That’s why I came into this profession. It’s a caring profession.”

    The teachers felt a moral imperative to care for their pupils and their families.
    Irina Gutyryak/Shutterstock

    The school staff told us about the work that went into running the foodbanks. They sourced food from local food redistribution charities, companies and other families at the school. Often, food was delivered, but sometimes it required collection. In some cases, parent volunteers helped pick up donations. A headteacher told us about how she collected food from a distribution centre:

    I would have literally had to go and root around and find what I needed … At least I am not teaching all day every day. So actually, I can take an hour and a half out – even though it’s only in term – to go and drive there, park up, open my boot, get the two pallets. And it was all heavy stuff – tins – [to] get here.

    We asked the people in our research whether schools should run food banks. Most replied positively, restating the impact that the food bank had upon the learning and wellbeing of children. Others were pragmatic, accepting that right now, there is no alternative support. However, some were critical, suggesting that the government should find alternative solutions to the issue of child poverty.

    While the provision of food for children and families in education settings may be having a beneficial effect, it is not sustainable.

    The burden of child poverty does not fall evenly on schools. Those that provide food banks are disproportionately located in areas with more pupils from deprived backgrounds, and schools with more pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds are more likely to receive poor Ofsted grades. Operating a food bank requires significant time, energy and funding, none of which are recognised in education policy, or by Ofsted, the schools inspectorate.

    The work that education staff are doing to support children in this way should be celebrated and rewarded, although it is not currently recognised in measures of a school’s effectiveness. But this also risks normalising the presence of food banks in schools. One teacher argued: “Our job is to look after them and educate them and care for them while they’re at school, not to feed them at the weekends or holidays, but we can’t help but be concerned about that.”

    The government should recognise the work that schools and early years settings are doing in this area and ensure that they have the resources needed. Government action to abolish the two-child benefit cap would also support families, lifting 300,000 children out of poverty.

    The government is currently developing a child poverty strategy. These measures would be welcome inclusions.

    Sharon Vince received funding from the British Education Research Association and the Monday Charitable Trust for the projects on food banks.

    Alice Bradbury receives funding from the Helen Hamlyn Trust which funds the Helen Hamlyn Centre for Pedagogy at UCL. She has also received research funding from the British Education Research Association and the Monday Charitable Trust for the projects on food banks. She is a member of the Labour Party and the Universities and College Union.

    – ref. ‘When you’ve got nothing in your belly, you can’t concentrate’: teachers on the food banks they run in schools – https://theconversation.com/when-youve-got-nothing-in-your-belly-you-cant-concentrate-teachers-on-the-food-banks-they-run-in-schools-248507

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why annexing Canada would destroy the United States

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Aisha Ahmad, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of Toronto

    As United States President Donald Trump relentlessly threatens to annex Canada, some Canadians are worried that an American invasion could one day become a reality.

    How would that scenario play out? Looking at the sheer size of the American military, many people might believe that Trump would enjoy an easy victory.

    That analysis is wrong. If Trump ever decides to use military force to annex Canada, the result would not be determined by a conventional military confrontation between the Canadian and American armies. Rather, a military invasion of Canada would trigger a decades-long violent resistance, which would ultimately destroy the United States.

    But in this nightmare scenario, could Canadians successfully resist an American invasion? Absolutely. I know this because I have studied insurgencies around the world for more than two decades, and I have spent time with ordinary people who have fought against powerful invading armies.



    Read more:
    Attempting to annex Canada would spell disaster for the U.S. at home and abroad

    How insurgencies begin

    The research on guerrilla wars clearly shows that weaker parties can use unconventional methods to cripple a more powerful enemy over many years. This approach treats waging war as a secret, part-time job that an ordinary person can do.

    Guerrillas use ambushes, raids and surprise attacks to slowly bleed an invading army, and local communities support these fighters by giving them safe havens and material support. These supporting citizens can also engage in forms of “everyday resistance,” using millions of passive-aggressive episodes of sabotage to frustrate and drain the enemy.

    Trump is delusional if he believes that 40 million Canadians will passively accept conquest without resistance. There is no political party or leader willing to relinquish Canadian sovereignty over “economic coercion,” and so if the U.S. wanted to annex Canada, it would have to invade.

    That decision would set in motion an unstoppable cycle of violence. Even if we imagine a scenario in which the Canadian government unconditionally surrenders, a fight would ensue on the streets. A teenager might throw a rock at invading soldiers. That kid would get shot, and then there would be more rocks, and more gunfire. An insurgency would be inevitable.

    The myth of Canadian ‘niceness’

    This idea may shock Canadians today because they see themselves as friendly and affable people. However, Canada’s current self-image of “niceness” only exists because they’re at peace. War changes people very quickly, and Canadians are no more innately peaceful than any other human beings.

    When your child is dying in your arms, you become capable of violence. Once you lose what you love, resistance becomes as natural as breathing.

    Except for a few collaborators and kapos, my research suggests many Canadians would likely engage in various forms of everyday resistance against invading forces that could involve steal, lying, cutting wires and diverting funds.

    Meanwhile, the insurgents would unleash physical devastation on American targets. Even if one per cent of all resisting Canadians engaged in armed insurrection, that would constitute a 400,000-person insurgency, nearly 10 times the size of Taliban at the start of the Afghan war. If a fraction of that number engaged in violent attacks, it would set fire to the entire continent.

    Canada’s geography would make this insurgency difficult to defeat. With deep forests and rugged mountains, Canada’s northern terrain could not be conquered or controlled. That means loyalists from the Canadian Armed Forces could mobilize civilian recruits into decentralized fighting units that could strike, retreat into the wilderness and blend back into the local communities that support them.

    The Canada-U.S. border is also easy to cross, which would give insurgents access to American critical infrastructure. It costs tens of billions of dollars to build an energy pipeline, and only a few thousand to blow one up.

    What about American air strikes?

    But wouldn’t the Americans crush the rebellion with missiles and drone strikes? They would try, but that approach to counterinsurgency won’t work.

    In fact, it is a well-known booby trap of insurgent warfare. The harder more powerful nations strike, the larger and more fragmented the insurgency becomes, making it impossible to achieve either a military victory or negotiated agreement. Canada’s rugged terrain would protect insurgents from those types of attacks, while global outrage at the bombings would only boost support for the rebellion.

    Americans have already been defeated by insurgents in many parts of the world because they could not escape this trap. If they dare to invade Canada, they would create this unsolvable security problem on their own soil.

    Russia and China rise to power

    How could Canadians pay for this decades-long insurgency? The answer lies in every single historical example of the old adage: “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

    The prospect of Americans becoming trapped by an insurgency on their own continent would delight Moscow and Beijing, which could easily establish covert northern passages to send weapons to the insurgency. Financing an insurgency is an effective way to ensnare and bankrupt a rival power, as counter-insurgency operations are exponentially more expensive than the price of a few arms shipments.

    A chronic violent insurrection in North America could financially and militarily pin down the U.S. for decades, ultimately triggering economic and political collapse. Russia and China, meantime, would enjoy an uncontested rise to power.

    Forewarned

    This scenario would guarantee the destruction of both Canada and the United States. No one in their right mind would choose this gruesome future over a peaceful and mutually beneficial alliance with a friendly neighbour.

    Nevertheless, if Trump is reckless enough to think the violent annexation of Canada is an achievable goal, then let it be known that all these horrifying outcomes were predictable well in advance, and that he was forewarned.

    Aisha Ahmad has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. Why annexing Canada would destroy the United States – https://theconversation.com/why-annexing-canada-would-destroy-the-united-states-249561

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: We hear about the health impact of climate-related events. But what about the health-care workers who respond to them?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Christopher Buse, Assistant Professor, Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University

    In British Columbia, like elsewhere in Canada, the impacts of climate change on health and health services are apparent. In recent years, the province has experienced a range of climate change-related extreme weather events, with considerable negative consequences.

    The 2021 heat dome caused wide disruptions to emergency services and led to more than 600 heat-related deaths. Wildfires have resulted in increased reports of illness and the evacuation of tens of thousands of people from their homes.

    B.C.’s health system, still recovering from the staffing issues and burnout of the COVID-19 pandemic, has stepped up to respond to these emergencies.



    Read more:
    Wildfire smoke is an increasing threat to Canadians’ health

    Health systems are made up of people who are often members of the same disaster-stricken communities they serve. However, to date, existing studies have focused primarily on health service provision during climate-related emergencies, rather than their specific impacts on health system workers.

    In order to understand the unique challenges they face during these events, we interviewed health service workers from across B.C. and in a wide range of roles, including doctors, nurses, allied health professionals and emergency responders.

    Mental and physical health risks

    Although the nature of their experiences varied depending on their position, a majority of our interviewees reported experiencing some form of physical or mental health threat during and after climate-related emergencies.

    These health service workers — and particularly those in front-line positions like paramedics, home health workers and clinical staff — described being exposed to heat and poor air quality. This was the case for those working in the community as well as in health facilities, especially when facilities were not equipped with cooling and air filtration technologies.

    Health service workers also described suffering negative mental health impacts like stress, trauma and anxiety. Participants reported experiencing burnout due to the challenges related to organizing logistics during an emergency, compounded by long hours and back-to-back periods of intense activity.

    Climate-related events that overwhelmed infrastructure — such as the 2021 heat dome, during which wait times for an ambulance stretched up to 16 hours in some areas — caused trauma to health service workers, who were placed in situations where they were unable to provide sufficient care to all who needed it.

    System problems aggravate impact

    Interviewees also explained that these mental and physical health impacts were aggravated by pre-existing health system challenges, like the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and staffing shortages. As described by one interviewee, concerns about COVID-19 transmission complicated clinical decision-making and created ethical dilemmas:

    “It was really challenging during the heat dome to provide adequate cooling for people when you’re supposed to follow infection prevention and control guidelines about not having fans… How do I prioritize the acute risk of heat versus the more delayed risk of COVID infection?”

    Meanwhile, staffing shortages meant health service workers had to work longer shifts and with greater frequency during climate-related events. They also experienced challenges getting to and from work because of flooded or blocked roads, or concerns for their family and homes. All of these factors can contribute to burnout.

    Adaptations to protect workers

    The good news is that adaptations are being implemented to protect against the risks shouldered by health service workers during climate-related emergencies. In our interviews, we heard about measures like facility upgrades, emergency response training, climate change education, mental health supports and the development of occupational health and safety plans.

    However, these adaptations are not happening uniformly across B.C.’s health system. In many cases, participants knew of occupational health, safety and emergency response plans for climate-related events, but were unfamiliar with or had not received direct guidance on how to follow them.

    Moreover, while the growing focus by B.C.’s health-care leaders on reducing carbon emissions is laudable, going “all-in” on mitigation may compete with resources needed to help health service workers adapt to the ongoing climate crisis. An overly technocratic approach focused exclusively on reducing carbon emissions risks undermining necessary preparation for the people responsible for keeping health systems going in emergencies.

    Building resilience and reducing systems risk

    Recognizing health service workers as community members, and understanding how they are impacted by climate-related events in their work and personal lives, is essential to building resilience.

    Our research suggests that central to building this resilience in health service workers is an organizational culture led by transformative leadership that:

    • Fosters a sense of trust;
    • Prioritizes open communication, flexibility and training; and
    • Encourages the use of mental health supports.

    In our interviews, we were heartened to hear this type of leadership within health systems is emerging.

    But there are, of course, limits to personal resilience. It is both unrealistic and unfair to expect health service workers to shoulder alone the burden of increasingly frequent and severe climate-related emergencies in the absence of systemic change, including the energy transition required to reduce emissions.

    Ultimately, the health system must continue to shift towards a culture of risk reduction to prepare for climate-related emergencies, increasing co-ordination and collaboration within and among health regions and authorities, governments and communities. This includes addressing chronic health system issues such as work-life balance and staffing shortages.

    Creating organizational cultures that are proactive and mindful that health service workers are community members first is key to adapting health systems to climate change, in B.C. and beyond.

    Christopher Buse receives funding from the Michael Smith Health Research BC, the BC Ministry of Health, Environment and Climate Change Canada and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

    Sandra Smiley is affiliated with UBC Medical Students for Climate Action and the UBC Political Advocacy Committee.

    Tim K. Takaro receives funding from Health Canada. He is affiliated with Protect the Planet, Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment.

    – ref. We hear about the health impact of climate-related events. But what about the health-care workers who respond to them? – https://theconversation.com/we-hear-about-the-health-impact-of-climate-related-events-but-what-about-the-health-care-workers-who-respond-to-them-249267

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Living with multiple chronic conditions cuts lives short – but Africans are overlooked in research

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Isaac Kisiangani, Researcher and PhD student, African Population and Health Research Center

    When a person suffers from two or more long-term health conditions at the same time this is known as multimorbidity.

    The World Health Organization says multimorbidity puts patients at greater risk and complicates primary care. It also drives up healthcare costs.

    People with more than one condition face a higher risk of early death and poorer quality of life. They may also have to take multiple medications. Polypharmacy increases the risk of harmful drug interactions and side effects, and patients find it harder to stick to treatment.

    In African countries the situation is further complicated by several disease burdens converging. Individuals may suffer non-communicable diseases like hypertension and diabetes, as well as from infectious diseases like HIV and tuberculosis.

    Poverty and unequal access to healthcare add to the impact of multimorbidity.

    Most research on multimorbidity has focused on populations of European ancestry. When people of African descent are included, the focus is often on African-Americans. This group does not represent the diversity or health challenges faced in Africa.

    As specialists in genetic epidemiology and chronic diseases management, we set out to research the gaps in understanding multimorbidity among people with African ancestry.

    Identifying gaps

    We examined 232 medical research publications (published from 2010 to June 2022), and included those published in English and French. That’s not a lot if one considers all the different health challenges that people of African descent suffer globally.

    Of these studies, 113 focused on continental African populations and 100 on the diaspora. Nineteen included both groups.

    Our review spanned five major academic databases. We used search terms such as “multimorbidity”, “comorbidity” and “African population”. Restricting searches to titles and abstracts and relying on texts that our institutions could access may have excluded some studies.

    Heart diseases dominate

    Cardiometabolic diseases, including hypertension, heart disease and diabetes, were the most studied conditions in both populations (those in Africa and those elsewhere).

    But notable differences emerged.

    In populations on the continent, cardiometabolic diseases tended to occur along with chronic infectious diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis.

    In diaspora populations, cardiometabolic diseases more commonly occurred along with other non-communicable diseases and psychiatric conditions such as depression and post-traumatic stress disorder.

    Age, sex, poverty

    As with all populations worldwide, older people in the studies we reviewed were the group most likely to have more than one health condition.

    But on the continent, the burden of infectious diseases meant younger adults were also at risk of having more than one illness.

    Women were more likely than men to have multiple conditions, particularly in relation to conditions such as hypertension and diabetes. This likely reflects both biological factors, such as hormonal differences, and social influences like income inequalities and differences in working environments.

    Individuals with lower socioeconomic status (which often means women) would be more likely to be exposed to unhealthy lifestyles, and to have less access to preventive care.

    What can be done?

    Our review found that the way health conditions combine differs between people of African descent outside Africa and those on the continent. This means medical research should include a greater diversity of participants.

    Expanded data collection should include genetic and metabolomic data.

    It is also essential to study a wider range of chronic conditions.

    The increasing co-existence of conditions means that treatment for cardiovascular, metabolic and infectious diseases should be integrated.

    Some African countries, including South Africa and Kenya, have already introduced integrated care, with encouraging results. A patient with two or more diseases is offered treatment for the conditions at the same facility during the same visit.

    Michele Ramsay receives funding from the National Research Foundation (RSA), National Institutes of Health (USA) and Wellcome (UK). She serves on the WHO TAG-G committee.

    Isaac Kisiangani and Michelle Kamp do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Living with multiple chronic conditions cuts lives short – but Africans are overlooked in research – https://theconversation.com/living-with-multiple-chronic-conditions-cuts-lives-short-but-africans-are-overlooked-in-research-241627

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: South Africa’s history uncovered: the 1,000-year gap they don’t teach in school

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Peter Delius, Professor emeritus, University of the Witwatersrand

    Were you told that gold mining in southern Africa started after 1852? Or that the export of iron, steel, copper and gold began in the late 19th century? Or that South Africa became integrated into a global trading system only after 1652? Or that the first powerful state in South Africa was the Zulu kingdom?

    If you learned that any of these things were true, you are like most South Africans, who have missed out on at least a thousand years of the country’s history.

    Both radical and conservative historians have focused heavily on colonial history, a story starting at the Cape and playing out within colonial boundaries. As a result, South Africa’s past has been compressed into a shortened timeline and a limited geography. That shorter version is what’s taught at schools and universities.

    If we abandon 1652 – when the first Dutch settlers arrived in the Cape – as the key historical starting point, and go back a thousand years and cast our gaze 2,000km north of Table Mountain, a very different story unfolds.

    Our research is attempting to rethink South African history. As many years of work in the interior show, along with our new focus on a central southern African trading landscape, Thulamela, the formative steps in South Africa’s history began here, along the Limpopo River.

    Early cooperative relationships

    Two thousand years ago, San hunter gatherers were the primary occupants of the region around the Limpopo River valley, an area around the confluence of the Limpopo and Shashe rivers that includes Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe. Contrary to popular opinion, these groups weren’t living in isolated bands. They were connected through regional networks of exchange spanning hundreds, even thousands, of kilometres.

    At this time, South Africa was on the brink of fundamental change. From about 350 AD, Bantu-speaking, iron-using, livestock-owning farmers began to settle the Soutpansberg, south of the Limpopo River. They initially established mainly cooperative relationships with the San, especially in hunting and trading.



    Read more:
    Archaeology shows how hunter-gatherers fitted into southern Africa’s first city, 800 years ago

    These farmers introduced a key innovation into the region – the production of metal tools, weapons, currency and jewellery. These goods were for their own use and for expanding trade networks.

    At the start, iron was the most important metal but over time, copper and gold became more and more significant. The farmers were skilled in locating and extracting these ores, which, in the case of gold and copper, often involved shaft mining. Metal production also demanded pyrotechnical knowledge to smelt ores and to fashion metals into functional and decorative forms.

    Local trade, global connections

    Another crucial development took place in the 7th century AD. The Indian Ocean world connected to the expanding regional trade networks which had linked the coast and the interior. The transoceanic sailors and traders were initially motivated by the growing demand for ivory in Asia and the Middle East.



    Read more:
    South Africa risks losing rich insights into an ancient farming society

    This external demand brought exotic glass beads and cloth deep into the interior, through African traders and rulers. A node in the system was Chibuene, a large coastal trading settlement on the Mozambican coast near modern Vilanculos. From here, beads and cloth travelled south, to the vicinity of Durban in modern-day KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and across the interior, past the Okavango delta to places such as the Tsodilo hills west of the delta’s panhandle in Botswana.

    Between the 10th and 15th centuries, the market for gold boomed – especially in Egypt, Persia, India and China. Southern Africa played an important role in meeting this demand because of the rich gold reserves of the Zimbabwe plateau and the adjacent region of the Limpopo valley.

    So, it is clear that an economic and mineral revolution took place long before Europeans settled South Africa’s Cape. Colonial processes of globalisation and the mineral revolution in the 19th century trailed far in the wake of African involvement in the vast Indian Ocean economy through their hunting, mining, smelting and artisanal skills.

    Rise of states

    Indian Ocean trade contributed to major transformations in the interior. The wealth it generated led to social stratification and the emergence of a distinct ruling class. Leaders’ economic, political and spiritual power intensified. These processes found expression in the establishment in 1220 of Mapungubwe, in the middle Limpopo Valley, and the first state in southern Africa.



    Read more:
    New book on Mapungubwe Archive contests history of South African world heritage site

    Over the centuries that followed, linked but shifting patterns of demand gave rise to major states like Great Zimbabwe, Thulamela, and later the Venda Kingdom, the Pedi Kingdom and the Zulu Kingdom.

    The little-known trading state, Thulamela, was located in the north of what’s now the Kruger Park. From 1250 to 1650 it was a key node of production and exchange. But for many decades the site was ignored. When intensive research finally started in the 1990s it made very limited progress in revealing the form and nature of the state. But renewed and interdisciplinary research at the site and surrounding areas has already produced new insights into the history of Thulamela and promises to generate many more in the near future.

    New windows to a past

    Given this deep history of powerful kingdoms connected by an underlying but dynamic economic system, we have to let go of the idea that the Zulu Kingdom, which formed in the early 19th century, was the first powerful state in what was to become South Africa. In fact, it was a relatively recent example of much deeper and wider transformations.

    It was only in the 19th century that expanding colonial capitalism and settlement fuelled by the “second” mineral revolution penetrated the interior and encountered its kingdoms and trading opportunities.

    The interaction between the two worlds culminated in a hard-fought struggle over trade, land and labour. While the African kingdoms were ultimately defeated and traders and craftsmen were displaced, their impact on the shape and nature of South African society is still felt today.

    A challenge to historians now is to deepen our understanding of this missing millennium, and of pre-colonial transformations.

    Researchers need to pay greater attention to a wider range of documentary sources (beyond those in English) and to oral traditions. Collaboration with scholars working on archaeology, historical linguistics and genetics will also tell us more about the forces that have shaped our present.

    Linell Chewins received funding from the National Research Foundation for her Masters.

    Tim Forssman receives funding from the National Research Foundation.

    Peter Delius does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. South Africa’s history uncovered: the 1,000-year gap they don’t teach in school – https://theconversation.com/south-africas-history-uncovered-the-1-000-year-gap-they-dont-teach-in-school-248244

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Online romance scams: who Nigeria and Ghana’s fraudsters are, how they operate, and why they do it

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Suleman Lazarus, Visiting Fellow, Mannheim Centre for Criminology, London School of Economics and Political Science

    People find love in many ways and through diverse mediums. Online platforms have become popular meeting places for people looking to find intimate partners, making them a prime target for cybercriminals.

    Online romance fraud has become a global phenomenon. According to the Federal Bureau of Investigation in the US, romance scams accounted for losses to about 24,000 Americans, exceeding US$1 billion, in 2022.

    On the African continent, Nigeria and Ghana have emerged as hubs for internet fraud. The “Yahoo Boys” operating in Nigeria and “Sakawa Boys” in Ghana have a reputation for engaging in various fraudulent schemes, including online romance scams.

    Over the past decade, I have researched cybercrime and criminology, focusing on west African online fraudsters. Coverage of romance scams often centres on victim narratives or sensational headlines, leaving offender-focused research largely unexplored.

    In a recent paper, I studied the cases of 50 people convicted of online romance in Nigeria. A separate research study I spearheaded involved interviews with active offenders in Ghana. Rather than relying solely on fragmented media accounts, the two research papers offer a robust, evidence-based understanding of the cultural, economic and historical factors driving cybercriminal behaviour.

    My findings from both papers show that romance fraud offenders frequently present themselves as white and primarily target western societies. In framing fraud as a way to reclaim wealth they believed was unjustly taken during colonial rule, many saw their actions as a civic duty. In the case file study on Nigerian fraudsters, I found that many were driven by “socioeconomic needs”.

    My findings provide insights into offenders’ tactics and motivations. This could be useful for law enforcement officials developing targeted interventions, and for policymakers wanting to frame informed strategies.

    Who, where, how and why

    This article uses “scam” and “fraud”, as well as “scammers” and “fraudsters”, interchangeably. The media, financial institutions, and the public typically use “scams” and “scammers”. Academics often prefer “fraud” and “fraudsters” to emphasise the seriousness of these crimes, as noted in my research.

    I examined case files of 50 individuals convicted of romance fraud in Nigeria following prosecutions by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission. In a separate study I conducted interviews with active romance fraud offenders in Ghana.

    My decision to focus on Nigeria and Ghana was based on findings in research done earlier. For example, I co-authored a paper that reviewed 21 years of empirical studies (2000–2021) in which we found that many west African scammers predominantly targeted individuals in the west. Another research study I spearheaded showed how songs by Nigerian artists glamorised the actions of scammers and highlighted their preference for western victims.



    Read more:
    What Nigerian hip-hop lyrics have to say about the country’s Yahoo Boys

    Similarly, the Nigeria case file study found that over half of the romance scam victims (56%) were in the US. My interviews with offenders in Ghana further showed that romance scammers viewed their actions as “legitimate retribution for colonial injustice”. These scammers operate within a historical framework in which colonial subjugation narratives influence their motivations and societal attitudes toward cybercrime.

    Profile of an online fraudster

    The analysis of the case files of the 50 convicted romance scammers showed patterns in offender profiles and strategies. Most were young – 81.7% were under 26. Nearly 60% preferred Apple’s iPhone for their fraudulent schemes. When it came to occupation, 74% were university students.

    Offenders carefully constructed their online personas. Nearly half (46%) posed as white American males, 12% as military personnel, and 10% as white European males.

    The victims they chose were mostly women: 70% of offenders primarily targeted females, 14% targeted males, 10% targeted both genders and 6% did not specify the victim’s gender.

    Facebook was the most commonly used platform, appearing in 46% of the Nigerian cases.

    Some of the Ghanaian scammers said they saw their crimes as acts of service to a greater cause. This included loyalty to their communities or the pursuit of economic justice. They portrayed their scams as efforts to reclaim wealth from nations historically exploiting their regions.

    Policymakers and law enforcement agencies can use these findings to develop more effective prevention strategies and intervention measures.

    Suleman Lazarus does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Online romance scams: who Nigeria and Ghana’s fraudsters are, how they operate, and why they do it – https://theconversation.com/online-romance-scams-who-nigeria-and-ghanas-fraudsters-are-how-they-operate-and-why-they-do-it-247916

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: As global leaders, Canada and Norway’s co-operation is timely in the face of surging energy demand

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ian H. Rowlands, Professor, School of Environment, Resources and Sustainability, University of Waterloo

    In March 2023, Canada and Norway issued a joint statement on bilateral co-operation. Notably, the statement emphasized a commitment to “achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, to promoting research collaboration and to increasing trade and investment in clean technologies and renewables that help enable a green and just transition.”

    Co-operation on energy transitions offers a timely way to strengthen this bond from 2025 onwards, more than ever in light of unfolding events on the global stage.

    Canada and Norway have a long history of strong collaboration: they have had formal bilateral relations since 1942, were founding members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1949 and the Arctic Council in 1996 and co-signatories to the Canada-European Free Trade Association’s Free Trade Agreement since 2008.

    Canada’s and Norway’s geographical and socio-economic similarities are striking, and help explain this active kinship.

    An opportune moment

    Unfolding geopolitical developments — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s continued rise and U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term — make it desirable to deepen connections between Canada and Norway.

    As researchers in environmental policy, we argue that this collaboration should focus on advancing the energy transition. Here, both countries are faced with tremendous opportunities, but also difficult decisions that require political gumption. There are national elections that will take place in each country this year, which makes this a particularly opportune political moment to address this concern.

    Both these climate-ambitious petro-powers have great potential to co-create pathways for prosperity. Both could conceivably implement advanced energy transition strategies that focus on the use of fossil fuel reserves judiciously and purposefully to finance climate change goals.

    The National Bank of Canada envisioned something like this in a 2023 report, continuing discussions that date back at least a decade. The report concluded that:

    “Similar to Norway, Canada is well positioned to benefit from both an economic and environmental standpoint if its existing energy resources can be leveraged to finance the transition to green energy.”

    Meanwhile, Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global crossed US$1.7 trillion in 2024, bearing testament to the financial strength the country has derived from the petroleum era.

    Electrification

    The connections between fossil fuel wealth and a climate-friendly transition show much potential. However, too often those advocating for continued exploitation of carbon-based resources fail to acknowledge the accelerated phaseout timetable needed for greenhouse gas emission reductions. The use of natural gas as a transition fuel, for instance, requires a long-term plan for carbon neutrality. Without that, deployment effectively locks in decades of additional emissions.

    We are all for using national resources for wealth creation if they quicken fossil fuel phase-down. But investments that impede this — such as state support for offshore wind development to electrify offshore oil rigs in Norway — are not only counter-productive, but also hypocritical.

    The real promise these countries hold for the energy transition is in the call to electrify (almost) everything. This approach simultaneously uses two pathways: “greening” the electricity grid with low-carbon energy sources, and moving fossil fuel energy demand onto these clean electricity grids.

    Digitalization, which refers to the wider socioeconomic changes inextricably linked to the shift from analog to digital systems, should also be seen as a parallel priority to enable real-time co-ordination of electricity demand and supply across coupled sectors.

    Global leadership

    Both countries already have relatively green grids. In Canada, almost 80 per cent of electricity was generated by carbon-free sources in 2023; in Norway, the equivalent figure was greater than 98 per cent. These figures measure up favourably compared to many other countries: about 60 per cent of the world’s electricity is supplied by fossil fuels, mainly coal and natural gas.

    For context, these green and greener grids have been achieved in an era of relatively flat electricity demand in many parts of both countries. But that is changing: sector demands like mobility, heating and data centres are already proving to be significant, new consumers of electricity. Huge quantities of additional electricity have to be rapidly generated while maintaining system stability.

    Electricity demand is expected to double in both countries by 2050, reaching 1,300 TWh in Canada (more than doubling the 2023 amount of just under 600 TWh), and 260 TWh in Norway (137 TWh in 2023).

    How these two frontrunner states replace existing carbon-fuelled infrastructure and meet the anticipated growth in electricity demand is of global interest.

    Energy strategy

    In policy terms in both Canada and Norway, this strategy to electrify (almost) everything is well underway. Canada’s climate change action plan includes commitment to a green grid by 2050, and implementing Clean Electricity Regulations.

    Norway is closing in on its target of 100 per cent vehicle sales being electric. And this June, the country is hosting the United Nations-supported Internet Governance Forum, which is an area critical to the sustainable energy transition.

    Solar panels in a park in Oslo, Norway.
    (Shutterstock)

    Actions need to follow ambitions, especially in industrial processes like steel-making where deployable solutions appear further down the horizon.

    Stronger bilateral collaboration could also result in positive outcomes in geopolitical developments in the Arctic. Rapidly consolidating trade relations more broadly has rarely been so important from a political perspective. Building this collaboration along energy transition synergies presents advantages that remain gravely underexploited.

    This is likely due to the political and economic status and sway that petroleum incumbents have held. But the twin transition of low-carbon electrification and digitalization offers Canada and Norway a chance to co-operate and lead their global regions into a new era of greener energy.

    Building upon their shared geographies, structures, experiences and values, the time is ripe for collaboration on the sustainable energy transition. This could include government officials, individuals from utilities and regulators, industry representatives, members of civil society and Indigenous organizations, researchers and academics.

    Together, Canada and Norway have the potential to work in tandem to move towards a more prosperous and sustainable global future.

    Ian H. Rowlands is a member of the Board of Directors of Waterloo Region Community Energy.

    Siddharth Sareen has received funding from the Research Council of Norway, Innovation Norway, the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation and Horizon Europe, Horizon 2020, JPI Climate and JPI Urban Europe programmes of the European Commission.

    – ref. As global leaders, Canada and Norway’s co-operation is timely in the face of surging energy demand – https://theconversation.com/as-global-leaders-canada-and-norways-co-operation-is-timely-in-the-face-of-surging-energy-demand-248283

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How narrow views of romance inform which marriages are seen as legitimate

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jennifer A. Selby, Professor, Religious Studies and Political Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland

    Legislation and scrutiny of ‘fraudulent marriage’ subtly position romance as a proxy to assess narrow liberal ideals. (Shutterstock)

    Valentine’s Day is sold to us as a moment to celebrate romance: we should buy cards, roses and chocolates. Go for fancy, dimly lit dinners with our significant others. Make loving declarations.

    Romance can enhance our lives. Studies have shown the benefits of romance, from companionship to improving our physical, sexual and mental health.

    However, romance can also be mobilized to judge and surveil relationships, and determine which are valid and which are not. Numerous countries, including Canada, have laws against what they deem as fraudulent marriages.
    To consider the impact of these laws, and to study the colonial legacies within them, I conducted a study of the marriage (and for many, migration) experiences of people of Algerian origin in three contexts: Ghazaouet and Tizi Ouzou in Algeria, a Parisian suburb called Petit-Nanterre and in Montréal from 2011 to 2019. My findings drew on almost 200 personal interviews focused on the marriage partner preferences and ceremonies of my participants.

    I was particularly interested in a comparison between France and Canada, where monitoring romance has served as a way to gauge the sincerity of marriages among migrants for whom citizenship is at stake.

    Laws targeting fraudulent marriage

    In an effort to curb a seeming rise in fraudulent marriages in immigration family sponsorship requests, governments in France and Canada introduced legislation in the 2000s to promote greater surveillance of and penalties for marriage fraud.

    In France, this began in 2008 with a law to curb “love fraud with a migratory aim.” Passed in the same year, Canada’s law centred on impeding “bad faith” marriages.

    Such legislation often comes with penalties. In France, if one is found guilty of being party to a fraudulent marriage, the penalty can be annulment, five to 10 years in prison, fines or deportation. The impetus for such laws is the unquantified sense that a growing number of foreign nationals take advantage of family unification immigration pathways through disingenuous relationships.

    The state’s involvement in France is more acute because the burden of assessment falls primarily on marriage officiants and immigration officers. Civil marriages there must take place in a municipal office and prior to a religious marriage.

    A 2010 directive to French marriage officiants is especially revelatory of this surveillance. Evidence of financial and sexual intimacies act as evidence of a sincere marriage. Romance is seen as a reflection of a spontaneous and uncalculated relationship.

    Of course, there is no evidence that expressions of romance in an early marriage are signs of success; divorce occurs for almost half of marrying couples, whether couples are transnational or not. Figures in Canada indicate a slightly higher divorce rate than in France.

    In Montréal, one can be married outside of a municipal office. Still, my participants in that city shared similar stories of pressures to perform specific sexual politics in the presence of state officials.

    One man whose wife wore a hijab was interrogated by first responders about the husband’s involvement when she fainted, while pregnant, outside a grocery store. Bewildered by the situation, he answered their questions about whether theirs was a forced marriage (it was not). In retrospect, he said he would have declined this line of questioning and focused their attention on his wife.

    Arranged marriages

    One of my notable findings is that many marriages in my sample were quasi-arranged — organized with the assistance of family members (often mothers). Yet, these types of marriages often fall outside idealized ideas of romance, rendering these couples more vulnerable to being accused of fraud.

    I also found that potential scrutiny from immigration officials did not impede interest in a transnational marriage partner. Many of my interviewees liked the idea of a partner of the same religion or culture, and who spoke Arabic or Tamazight. In addition, for many, a cosmopolitan transnational life linking Algeria with France or Québec was appealing.

    Depending on their gender, social class, religiosity, families and personalities, individuals grapple with these politics differently. The social contexts of a Parisian suburb and Montréal further shaped a participant’s sense of longing and belonging. Fewer Algerian women in Montréal were interested in such arrangements. Invariably, however, individuals of Algerian origin in both contexts knew that transnational unions were highly scrutinized.

    Despite the attention granted to curbing marriage fraud, the data suggest that few marriages are annulled. The spectre of this surveillance is greater than its enforcement.

    Unfairly penalizing migrants

    Legislation and scrutiny of marriages seen as fraudulent subtly position romance as a proxy to assess narrow liberal ideals. Some scholars have called this phenomenon a push for a “sexual democracy,” where women’s bodies are subtly expected to remain visible and sexually available as signs of their putative equality.

    Perhaps unexpectedly, niqab bans in both France and Québec further reflect these values. Full-face veils are, tellingly, depicted as lacking sexual agency and individualism, and impeding a cisgender woman’s ability to attract men.

    Narrow views of what kind of romance should be legitimized and celebrated are not limited to governments. Such views also manifest in consumer culture and in the wedding industry, and are desired and performed by many of us, including among my research participants in arranged marriages. Romance’s pervasiveness, desirability and seeming spontaneity mask its politics.

    As we enjoy romantic gestures on Valentine’s Day, we should also consider the cultural specificity of these tropes and their potentially exclusionary politics in determining whose relationships are deemed legitimate. Entrenchments of patriarchal chivalry, monogamy, consumerism and narrow gender roles can run in tandem.

    Jennifer A. Selby receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. How narrow views of romance inform which marriages are seen as legitimate – https://theconversation.com/how-narrow-views-of-romance-inform-which-marriages-are-seen-as-legitimate-247085

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Online brain rot is undermining our ability to tell meaningful stories

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Masoud Kianpour, Senior Research Fellow, Canada Excellence Research Chair in Migration and Integration program, Toronto Metropolitan University

    I teach a course on the relationship between social media and society at Durham College. As part of their assessments, I ask my students to reflect on their social media use.

    A recurring theme is that they cannot be separated from their smartphones. Many admit to spending significant time daily on social media watching short videos without a clear purpose and as a way to procrastinate on more productive activities.

    There is a term for this kind of behaviour and its impact on mental health, one that was recently named Oxford Word of the Year 2024: “brain rot” — the deterioration of a person’s mental or intellectual state, especially as the result of over-consuming trivial or unchallenging online content.

    For many adults, a diffuse addiction to the internet, or what clinical psychologists call digital drugs (like online shopping, gaming, gambling, pornography), has become a widespread problem, especially since the lockdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    When social media platforms emerged at the beginning of this century, they were welcomed for their potential to empower individuals, facilitate storytelling and connect communities.

    While they do enable these possibilities, they also pose significant challenges to our relationship with truth and trust — two pillars of a functioning democracy. By spreading misinformation and creating echo chambers that polarize communities, social media platforms have become a ground for the rise of “hate and extremism.”

    As a sociologist, I study pop culture. My colleagues and I at Toronto Metropolitan University (TMU) and the University of Ottawa recently published a report on how cultural and identity narratives are evolving amid fast-developing digital technologies.

    In a culture of constant connectivity, many young people are navigating a digital world of idealized images and unrealistic comparisons.
    (Shutterstock)

    Shortened attention spans

    Among younger generations in the United States, the average daily consumption is more than five hours on screens and 237 notifications — about one notification every four minutes.

    In a culture of constant connectivity, many young people are navigating a digital world of idealized images, from beauty influencers who subject them to unrealistic comparisons that often lead to feelings of inadequacy and diminished self-worth to an online bro culture that purveys a toxic form of masculinity as a path to success.

    For cultural theorist Byung-Chul Han, this is a sign of the decline in storytelling. Modern readers have lost the ability to engage deeply with narratives. The “long, slow, lingering gaze” that allows for daydreaming and true distraction has been replaced by a hyper-focused engagement with constant streams of information. As a result, narration is in crisis.

    Recently, a team of researchers at TMU who study workplaces from the perspective of young workers created a two-minute-and-40-second video to engage students on the topic of what young workers want from their work.

    Students couldn’t follow the entire video and felt it was too long. As a result, the team had to edit it into a series of much shorter clips — some as brief as 16 seconds — so they could capture the attention of their audience. Should this come as a surprise?

    Modern media and technology constantly remind us to preserve our memory and protect our history. However, memory is paradoxical in that it involves forgetting and absence with every act of remembrance.

    Online platforms, with their ephemeral content, risk contributing to a cultural memory loss since so much of what’s shared on these platforms is transitory and geared toward superficial engagement rather than meaningful cultural expression.

    Online platforms risk contributing to a cultural memory loss as so much of what is shared on these platforms is geared toward superficial engagement rather than meaningful cultural expression.
    (Shutterstock)

    When brains rot, truth fades

    In his memoir, American writer and naturalist Henry David Thoreau lamented society’s declining capacity for deep thought and intellectual effort, favouring instead simple and superficial thinking.

    In 1854, he wrote in his book Walden:

    “While England endeavors to cure the potato-rot, will not any endeavor to cure the brain-rot, which prevails so much more widely and fatally?”

    Thoreau may have seen a future where the U.S. would be led by a president who not only lacks the capacity for deep thought and self-reflection but also disregards historical facts and moral values.

    Despite his reputation as a pathological liar, Donald Trump exemplifies what philosopher Harry Frankfurt defined as a bullshitter — a person who does not mislead in the way a liar does, by deliberately making false claims about reality, but rather by speaking without any regard for truth at all.

    Bullshitters shift the rules of conversation by making questions of truth and falsehood irrelevant. Lies and the truth simply become tools that can be used to tell their story — regardless of the facts.



    Read more:
    Bullshit is everywhere. Here’s how to deal with it at work

    The bigger picture

    Georg Simmel was one of the first social scientists who expressed concern about the impact of modern life on mental health. In 1903, writing about Berlin, he described blasé attitude as a psychological condition that arises when the brain is subjected to an overwhelming number of stimuli. To cope, it develops a defense mechanism: becoming indifferent to its surroundings.

    One century later, when our online feeds are flooded with endless digital content, it is uncanny to revisit Simmel’s observation. We must move beyond traditional diagnostic digital literacy and competency frameworks. The problem lies not only in the technology itself, but in the broader socio-economic system in which it operates — a consumer-capitalist-digital complex that is eroding our brains and cultures.

    Humans have always been fascinated by stories. We need them to understand ourselves. However, social media’s profit-driven algorithms homogenize experiences and ultimately undermine cultural diversity. We have become storysellers instead of storytellers.

    Masoud Kianpour has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. Online brain rot is undermining our ability to tell meaningful stories – https://theconversation.com/online-brain-rot-is-undermining-our-ability-to-tell-meaningful-stories-248984

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why are migrants dying trying to cross into the US? These are the 3 main risks they face

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Marni LaFleur, Assistant Professor of Anthropology, University of San Diego

    An altar set at the U.S.-Mexico border wall in Baja, Calif., in November 2024 honors migrants who died trying to reach the U.S. Guillermo Arias/AFP via Getty Images

    President Donald Trump closed much of the activity at the U.S.-Mexico border in January 2025, making it impossible for migrants who arrive at a U.S. port of entry to apply for asylum. Trump’s border policies are likely to make it far more difficult and dangerous for migrants trying to reach the U.S. – but won’t deter all people who want to cross the U.S.-Mexico border without legal authorization.

    The number of migrants crossing from Mexico into the U.S. without legal authorization dropped dramatically in 2024. But for a long time, crossing the U.S.-Mexico border by land has been the world’s deadliest migration route.

    U.S. Customs and Border Protection recovered the remains of 10,784 migrants from 1988 through 2024.

    This figure is an estimate of the total number of migrants who have died trying to cross from Mexico into the U.S. – there is no centralized system or organization that tracks migrant deaths, or any federal laws guiding authorities on how to manage the remains of migrants.

    Many other dead migrants are also never found.

    I am a professor of anthropology and have spent the past several years trying to understand how and why migrants die trying to enter the U.S.

    Stranded migrants who are now staying in Mexican border towns and others with plans to still try to illegally cross into the U.S. might pursue increasingly dangerous ways to enter the country.

    Research shows that there are three main reasons why migrants die trying to reach the U.S. from Mexico. First, migrants are often exposed to extreme weather conditions. Second, they drown in rivers or other bodies of water. Third, they could also experience blunt force trauma because of falls or motor vehicle accidents.

    A body of a man is found by the Rio Grande in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on March 28, 2024.
    David Peinado/Anadolu via Getty Images

    Environmental exposure is common and dangerous

    Migrants coming from Central and South America often travel to the U.S. in groups, typically with the help of a guide, called a coyote, they pay to help them.

    They may spend days or weeks walking through remote areas without access to shelter or fresh food and clean water. They might sleep outdoors in very cold weather and walk during extreme heat. This can cause hypothermia or hyperthermia.

    One of those remote areas is the Sonoran Desert, which spans the southwest U.S. into northwest Mexico. It is divided by the U.S.-Mexico border and is one of the hottest places on Earth. Ambient temperatures can soar to or above 118 degrees Fahrenheit, or 48 degrees Celsius.

    As part of the strategy to stop migrants from coming to the U.S., Customs and Border Protection does not place many officers in the depths of the desert along the border. The government’s 1994 migration “prevention through deterrence” strategy explains that because the desert itself poses mortal danger to individuals, it is unnecessary to guard the land.

    With border barriers, video surveillance, bright lights and many patrol agents closer to more populated areas along the U.S.-Mexico border, migrants can view the desert as a viable alternative for entering the U.S. Deterrent practices have been found to not stop migrants from trying to enter the U.S., but they do increase the number of migrants who die trying to do so.

    Even migrants who are near help or are rescued from the desert may not recover from exposure to extreme temperatures. In 2023, for example, a 9-year-old migrant boy died from organ failure after authorities found him along the Arizona border.

    Drowning poses another risk

    Drowning is another leading cause of death for migrants trying to reach the U.S.

    In California, for example, the 82-mile-long All-American Canal runs parallel to the U.S.-Mexico border. Although the canal doesn’t look particularly dangerous, it is deep, cold, fast-moving and has steep concrete edges that are difficult to scale. Migrants might not be able to swim, or others, particularly women and children, are not strong enough to withstand the force of the currents.

    Areas of the Rio Grande, a river that divides the U.S. and Mexico in some areas of Texas, have become hot spots for migrant drownings. Approximately 1,107 migrants died trying to cross this river between 2017 to 2023. The river is fast and deep and is filled with rocks and heavy vegetation that make crossing difficult.

    Additionally, in an effort to further deter migrant crossing at Eagle Pass, an area of the Rio Grande, the Texas National Guard installed more than 100 miles of razor wire along the river’s banks in 2024. They set up a large string of oversized orange buoys in the water, creating what the federal government called a navigation obstruction for migrants.

    These tactics have sparked larger debates on how to handle migration, and which government agency is responsible for preventing people from crossing into the country, or apprehending them when they do so.

    In 2024, a Mexican woman and her two children tried to cross the Rio Grande but struggled to do so. As Customs and Border Protection agents prepared to rescue the distressed and drowning individuals, the Texas National Guard prevented rescue attempts. The family died from drowning, and their bodies were later recovered.

    Blunt force trauma

    Another leading cause of death of migrants is falling from heights or experiencing car accidents.

    At the California border region alone, approximately 20% of migrant deaths were due to blunt force trauma between 2018 through 2023. This rate rose after the 2020 expansion of the border wall, which now spans 741 miles of the U.S.-Mexico border. In total, the border is nearly 2,000 miles.

    In one incident in Texas in 2020, a pregnant 19-year-old Guatemalan woman died after falling from the border wall, which ranges from 18 to 30 feet. Medical authorities were unable to save the fetus.

    In Texas, between 2021 and 2023, high-speed chases by immigration officials led to the deaths of 74 people. Some individuals were ejected from moving vehicles, while others were hit by fast-moving vehicles. Another particularly deadly accident occurred in 2021 in Holtville, California, when an SUV transporting 25 migrants collided with a semitruck. Thirteen migrants were killed.

    Migrants from Colombia sleep outside in Jacumba, Calif., after crossing into the U.S. in May 2023.
    Gregory Bull/Associated Press

    ‘Prevention through deterrence’

    For more than 30 years, the U.S. government has tried to prevent migrants from reaching the U.S. through different strategies, like deploying Border Patrol agents or building walls.

    There are many practical and policy-based interventions that would make it safer for migrants to cross through the U.S. and Mexico deserts. For example, water stations along known migration routes of the desert save lives.

    Regardless of how the Trump administration tries to stop migrants from reaching the U.S., people will likely still try to come and embark on unsafe journeys to do so – and I will continue to track their experiences and deaths.

    Marni LaFleur received funding from the National Science Foundation. I am the founder and director of a California registered 501 (c)(3) called Lemur Love (EIN 48-1174852).

    – ref. Why are migrants dying trying to cross into the US? These are the 3 main risks they face – https://theconversation.com/why-are-migrants-dying-trying-to-cross-into-the-us-these-are-the-3-main-risks-they-face-246108

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –