NewzIntel.com

Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: King Charles heckled in Australia: the crown’s role in Indigenous rights in the Commonwealth

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Philip Murphy, Director of History & Policy at the Institute of Historical Research and Professor of British and Commonwealth History, School of Advanced Study, University of London

    That the recent visit of King Charles to Australia – his first as the country’s sovereign – attracted protests will have come as a surprise to very few people.

    The right-wing press in the UK anticipated some kind of snub to Charles from republican, “woke leftist” Australians. The palace had prepared the ground for the visit in a letter to the non-partisan independence group the Australian Republican Movement which repeated its longstanding position that, as with any of the other Commonwealth realms, the question of whether the country became a republic was “a matter for the Australian public to decide”.

    But the message from the most prominent protester was, perhaps, less expected. At the end of a speech by the king at Parliament House in Canberra on October 21, he was heckled by Lidia Thorpe, an independent senator of Aboriginal (Djab Wurrung, Gunnai and Gunditjmara) origin.

    She told him: “You committed genocide against our people. Give us our land back. Give us what you stole from us – our bones, our skulls, our babies, our people.”

    Earlier in the day, Thorpe had issued a statement outlining her position. In it, she claimed:

    As First Peoples, we never ceded our Sovereignty over this land. The crown invaded this country, has not sought treaty with First Peoples, and committed a genocide of our people. King Charles is not the legitimate sovereign of these lands. Any move towards a republic must not continue this injustice. Treaty must play a central role in establishing an independent nation. A republic without a treaty must not happen.

    Historic treaties

    The recognition of the rights of Aboriginal peoples through a formal treaty has been a demand of Australian indigenous rights campaigners for decades. Indeed, Australia is unusual among British settler colonies in the failure of the crown to forge treaties with Indigenous peoples in the process of imperial occupation. In New Zealand and Canada these treaties continue to be invoked as an historical underpinning of indigenous rights.

    The 1840 Treaty of Waitangi between Māori leaders and the crown as well as the rights and principles that followed from it are certainly politically contentious in New Zealand. Yet the Treaty is still widely regarded as the country’s founding document and a key symbolic basis for inclusion and reconciliation.

    In Canada, the treaties signed by the crown with First Nations peoples are explicitly referenced in the country’s 1982 constitution and are cited by the Canadian government as “a framework for living together and sharing the land Indigenous peoples traditionally occupied.”

    It should not come as much of a surprise that the issue of the the absence of similar treaties in Australia has been raised during the king’s visit. The rather dull itineraries of royal visits provide activists with a perfect opportunity to have their voices heard by journalists desperate for something interesting to write about. There is a history of Aboriginal protesters using them in this way.

    In 1972, the Larrakia people, the traditional owners of the Darwin region in the Northern Territory, used a visit by Princess Margaret to draw attention to a petition asking Queen Elizabeth II to assist them in their demand for land rights and political representation.

    The palace and the governments of the Realms are keenly aware of these sensitivities and plan royal tours accordingly. During his visit to Canada in 2022, for example, while he was still Prince of Wales, Charles made a point of meeting the survivors of the country’s notorious residential schools where thousands of indigenous children suffered abuse.

    Ironically, indigenous treaties with the crown have complicated the republican issue, forcing campaigners for a republic in both New Zealand and Canada to offer assurances that the rights and obligations in those treaties would not be lost if the monarchy was to be abolished.

    The question of reparations

    Charles has followed his Australia visit by flying to Samoa for the summit of the Commonwealth Heads of Government. Again, the UK press sensed trouble ahead, predicting that as head of the Commonwealth Charles might be caught up in a row between the British government and Caribbean nations over the call for reparations for slavery.

    The UK is not the only government in the Commonwealth having to wrestle with colonial legacy issues. But there is no avoiding them.

    Britain has a monarchy steeped in imperial history, with a king who is quite separately sovereign of 14 other realms. Its government continues to profess a belief in the value of the Commonwealth, when its members have little else in common except that most of them were colonised by Britain.

    A recent report by the UK thinktank Policy Exchange, which imagined the Commonwealth playing a greater role in British diplomatic, defence and trade policy, seemed blithely unaware of the tensions within the organisation and the barriers to collective action.

    In a similar vein, UK prime minister Keir Starmer has claimed that he wants to “look forward” and focus on issues such as climate change and boosting prosperity rather than reparations.

    But the Commonwealth is simply not a logical framework for the discussion of these matters. On the other hand, it is uniquely qualified to debate the impact of colonialism and the question of reparatory justice. And even if Britain doesn’t want to have that conversation, other Commonwealth countries certainly do.

    Philip Murphy has received funding from the AHRC. He belongs to the European Movement UK.

    – ref. King Charles heckled in Australia: the crown’s role in Indigenous rights in the Commonwealth – https://theconversation.com/king-charles-heckled-in-australia-the-crowns-role-in-indigenous-rights-in-the-commonwealth-241993

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Human rights advocate Alexander Lapshin: No place to go, but still fighting for global freedom

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Frederick John Packer, Associate Professor of Law and Director of the Human Rights Research and Education Centre, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa

    Global freedom has been in decline for nearly two decades, according to Freedom House, an American non-profit organization devoted to supporting democracy around the world.

    That means the role of high-profile freedom activists, including activists in exile — people who are displaced from their countries of origin due to their activism but continue to affect change through various means — has become ever more crucial.

    A recent incident involving Alexander Lapshin, a Soviet-born Israeli travel journalist turned human rights advocate, at Armenia’s Yerevan airport highlights the ongoing persecution faced by activists even in seemingly secure environments.

    On Sept. 21, during Armenia’s Independence Day celebrations, Lapshin said he was detained at the request of Belarusian authorities, accused of insulting the honour and dignity of Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko by highlighting the authoritarian nature of his regime in social media posts.

    Though not formally expelled from any one country, Lapshin’s circumstances have effectively left him with no safe or stable place to settle. He says legal and political pressures in both Ukraine and Israel prevent him from returning.

    Armenia ultimately refused to arrest him, but Lapshin and his family were forced to endure four hours of distressing uncertainty at the Yerevan police station before his release was formally registered by Armenia’s Prosecutor General’s Office.

    This provocation underscored the persistent threats activists face even in countries offering relative safety.

    Extradited to Azerbaijan

    Just weeks before his arrest in Yerevan, we met with Lapshin in Ottawa to learn about his odyssey, and by extension, the suffering of his family resulting from his work as a travelling journalist.

    It’s not the first time Lapshin had been targeted by authoritarians. In 2016, while in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, Lapshin was detained by the authorities at the request of the Azerbaijani government. He was subsequently extradited to Azerbaijan on charges related to his travel in 2012 to the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh — an area claimed by both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

    The Azerbaijani government accused Lapshin of violating its laws by entering the enclave without permission and promoting its independence. However, at that point Lapshin had never been involved in politics nor called for the region’s independence. The Azerbaijani court dropped this charge, though convicted him of taking an unauthorized journalistic trip.

    The story of Lapshin’s arrest and extradition drew widespread condemnation from human rights organizations and various governments, who viewed it as a blatant violation of his rights to freedom of movement and expression.

    Lapshin was nevertheless found guilty and sentenced to three years in prison. However, following significant international pressure and diplomatic negotiations, he was pardoned and released in September 2017.

    Lapshin’s Azerbaijani ordeal

    In his subsequent testimony to the Centre for Truth and Justice, a U.S.-based non-profit organization, Lapshin detailed the severe abuse he endured during his imprisonment in Azerbaijan.

    Upon arrival at Kurdakhani prison — known for holding political prisoners — Lapshin was subjected to humiliating strip searches and invasive medical checks. For seven months, he was confined to a small, windowless cell, kept under constant artificial light and allowed only one hour of exercise in a similarly confined yard. His diet was minimal and of poor quality, leading to significant physical and psychological distress.

    Lapshin testifies about how he was treated in Azerbaijan. (The Centre for Truth and Justice YouTube channel)

    The most harrowing part of his imprisonment came on Sept. 10, 2017, when four masked men brutally assaulted him in his cell. Lapshin described the attack in detail:

    “I felt three of them holding my legs and chest while one strangled me. They punched my ribs, my head and my genitals. I lost consciousness within seconds.”

    He sustained severe injuries, including broken ribs, a broken wrist and multiple broken teeth. Azerbaijani authorities maintained that he had attempted suicide.

    Lapshin’s further testimony about how he was treated in Azerbaijan. (The Centre for Truth and Justice YouTube channel)

    The European Court of Human Rights eventually examined his complaints and found a violation of his “right to life.” The United Nations Human Rights Committee found multiple violations of his rights (including freedom from torture) under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.

    According to Lapshin, Azerbaijan released him not because of the European Court’s decision, but due to his near death following an attempted murder in custody. He believes the president of Azerbaijan decided to release him without formalities to avoid international tension if he’d died in prison.

    Broader implications

    Lapshin’s recent detention in Armenia is part of a continued pattern of harassment against him as he’s morphed from a travel blogger to a human rights advocate.

    Despite the ordeal, Lapshin sees these provocations as an opportunity to create greater public awareness. The media coverage generated from such incidents often works to his advantage, drawing more attention to the plight of political prisoners and the excesses of authoritarian regimes.

    Lapshin sees his ordeals as helping to raise public awareness about authoritarians.
    (WikiMedia), CC BY

    Lapshin’s collaboration with Jivan Avetisyan, a prominent film director focusing on human rights issues, exemplifies his strategic approach to advocacy — turning personal trauma into powerful narratives that reach a global audience.

    Such collaborations contribute significantly to keeping human rights abuses in the spotlight.

    Activists like Lapshin are crucial figures in the global struggle against authoritarianism. Despite enduring harsh persecution, they persist in their advocacy efforts from the relative safety of democracies, and work to raise awareness among policymakers and the public.

    Lapshin’s recent trip to Ottawa is one example of this. He met with Global Affairs Canada officials and presented them with a sanctions list targeting Azerbaijani officials he alleges are responsible for war crimes and abuses, including those involved in his prison mistreatment.

    Impact and challenges

    Activists like Lapshin employ diverse strategies to advance their causes, such as social media engagement and public mobilization, as well as partnerships with global human rights organizations.

    These efforts often result in positive changes, including the release of detained activists and the imposition of sanctions on oppressive governments. Lapshin’s resilience, along with that of notable exiled activists like Chinese-born Chen Guangcheng and Belarus’ Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, demonstrates the power and influence that individuals can wield against repressive regimes from afar.



    Read more:
    Fighting for a future: The Belarusian regiment in Ukraine is staking its claim on democracy

    Activists, in particular those in exile, face numerous challenges, including transnational repression and a lack of resources. Authoritarian regimes employ measures like surveillance, intimidation, physical assaults and even murder to target activists beyond their borders. These activists must also navigate legal, financial and cultural barriers in foreign countries when they seek asylum, find work and try to integrate into new societies, all while continuing their advocacy.

    Lapshin’s experiences illustrate these challenges. The ongoing threats and harassment against him continue even today. Nonetheless, his dedication to human rights advocacy remains unwavering.

    I am a member of various professional / academic associations and some human rights NGOs including (pro bono) the Canada Committee of Human Rights Watch. None of these would be affected by this article nor would I gain any benefit as a result.

    Philip Leech-Ngo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Human rights advocate Alexander Lapshin: No place to go, but still fighting for global freedom – https://theconversation.com/human-rights-advocate-alexander-lapshin-no-place-to-go-but-still-fighting-for-global-freedom-241550

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Want to built healthier cities? Make room for bird and tree diversity

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Buxton, Assistant Professor, Department of Biology, Carleton University

    More than five million Canadians — approximately one in eight of us — are living with a mood, anxiety or substance use disorder. The prevalence of mental disorders is on the rise, with a third of those with a disorder reporting unmet or partially met needs for mental health-care services.

    The stresses of the city, where more than 70 per cent of Canadians now live, can increase the risk of poor mental health even further.

    When most people think about caring for their mental health, they may think about getting more exercise, getting more sleep and making sure they’re eating healthy. Increasingly, research is showing that spending time in nature surrounded by plants and wildlife can also contribute to preventing and treating mental illness.

    Our research focuses on the importance of birds and trees in urban neighbourhoods in promoting mental well-being. In our study, we combined more than a decade of health and ecological data across 36 Canadian cities and found a positive association between greater bird and tree diversity and self-rated mental health.

    The well-being benefits of healthy ecosystems will probably not come as a great surprise to urban dwellers who relish days out in the park or hiking in a nearby nature reserve. Still, the findings of our study speak to the potential of a nature-based urbanism that promotes the health of its citizens.



    Read more:
    How the health of honeybee hives can inform environmental policies in Canadian cities

    Birds, trees and human connection

    Across cultures and societies, people have strong connections with birds. The beauty of their bright song and colour have inspired art, music and poetry. Their contemporary cultural relevance has even earned them an affectionate, absurdist internet nickname: “birbs”.

    There’s something magical about catching a glimpse of a bird and hearing birdsong. For many urbanites, birds are our daily connection to wildlife and a gateway to nature. In fact, even if we don’t realize it, humans and birds are intertwined. Birds provide us with many essential services — controlling insects, dispersing seeds and pollinating our crops.

    People have similarly intimate connections with trees. The terms tree of life, family trees, even tree-hugger all demonstrate the central cultural importance trees have in many communities around the world. In cities, trees are a staple of efforts to bring beauty and tranquility.

    When the Australian city of Melbourne gave urban trees email addresses for people to report problems, residents responded by writing thousands of love letters to their favourite trees. Forest bathing, a practice of being calm and quiet among trees, is a growing wellness trend.

    Birds and trees as promoters of urban wellness

    Contact with nature and greenspace have a suite of mental health benefits.

    Natural spaces reduce stress and offer places for recreation and relaxation for urban dwellers, but natural diversity is key. A growing amount of research shows that the extent of these benefits may be related to the diversity of different natural features.

    For example, in the United States, higher bird diversity is associated with lower hospitalizations for mood and anxiety disorders and longer life expectancy. In a European study, researchers found that bird diversity was as important for life satisfaction as income.

    People’s connection to a greater diversity of birds and trees could be because we evolved to recognize that the presence of more species indicates a safer environment — one with more things to eat and more shelter. Biodiverse environments are also less work for the brain to interpret, allowing restoration of cognitive resources.

    To explore the relationship between biodiversity and mental health in urban Canada, we brought together unique datasets. First, we collected bird data sourced from community scientists, where people logged their bird sightings on an app. We then compared this data with tree diversity data from national forest inventories.

    Finally, we compared both of these data sets to a long-standing health survey that has interviewed approximately 65,000 Canadians each year for over two decades.

    We found that living in a neighbourhood with higher than average bird diversity increased reporting of good mental health by about seven per cent. While living in a neighbourhood with higher than average tree diversity increased good mental health by about five per cent.

    Importance of urban birds and trees

    The results of our study, and those of others, show a connection between urban bird and tree diversity, healthy ecosystems and people’s mental well-being. This underscores the importance of urban biodiversity conservation as part of healthy living promotion.

    Protecting wild areas in parks, planting pollinator gardens and reducing pesticide use could all be key strategies to protect urban wildlife and promote people’s well-being. Urban planners should take note.



    Read more:
    Eco-anxiety: climate change affects our mental health – here’s how to cope

    We’re at a critical juncture: just as we are beginning to understand the well-being benefits of birds and trees, we’re losing species at a faster rate than ever before. It’s estimated that there are three billion fewer birds in North America compared to the 1970s and invasive pests will kill 1.4 million street trees over the next 30 years.

    By promoting urban biodiversity, we can ensure a sustainable and healthy future for all species, including ourselves.

    Rachel Buxton receives funding from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, National Institutes of Health, and Environment and Climate Change Canada.

    Emma J. Hudgins received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Fonds de Recherche du Québec – Nature et Technologies for this work. She currently receives funding from Plant Health Australia.

    Stephanie Prince Ware has received funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

    – ref. Want to built healthier cities? Make room for bird and tree diversity – https://theconversation.com/want-to-built-healthier-cities-make-room-for-bird-and-tree-diversity-235379

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How do genes shape the structures in our brains? We studied 70,000 people and found new links to ADHD and Parkinson’s

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luis M. García Marín, Postdoctoral Researcher, Brain & Mental Health Program, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute

    SeanidStudio/Shutterstock

    The human brain is a marvel of complexity. It contains specialised and interconnected structures controlling our thoughts, personality and behaviour.

    The size and shape of our brains also play a crucial role in cognitive functions and mental health. For example, a slightly smaller hippocampus, the structure responsible for regulation of memory and emotion, is commonly seen in depression. In dementia, atrophy of the hippocampus is correlated with memory loss and cognitive decline.

    Despite these insights, we have only scratched the surface of understanding the brain and its connection to mental health.

    In collaboration with scientists around the world, we have conducted the world’s largest genetic study of the volume of regional structures of the brain. This study is now published in Nature Genetics.

    We discovered hundreds of genetic variants that influence the size of structures such as the amygdala (the “processing centre” for emotions), the hippocampus and the thalamus (involved in movement and sensory signals).

    We uncovered their potential overlap with genes known to influence the risk of certain developmental, psychiatric and neurological disorders.

    More than 70,000 brains

    To understand how the brain connects to mental health, scientists like ourselves engage in large-scale scientific studies that span the globe.

    These studies, which involve thousands of volunteers, are the bedrock of modern biomedical research. They help us discover genes associated with brain size and mental health conditions. In turn, this can improve diagnostic precision and even pave the way for personalised medicine, which uses a person’s genetic test results to tailor treatments.

    We screened the DNA and closely examined magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans from more than 70,000 people across 19 countries. We wanted to find out if there are specific genetic variants influencing differences in brain size between individuals.

    What we found was stunning. Some of these genes seem to act early in life, and many genes also increase the risk for conditions like attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and Parkinson’s disease.

    What did we find out?

    Brain-related disorders are common, with an estimated 40% of Australians experiencing a mental health disorder in their lifetime.

    Our genetic findings reveal that larger regional brain volumes (the size of specific parts of the brain) are associated with a higher risk of Parkinson’s disease. In comparison, smaller regional brain volumes are statistically linked with a higher risk of ADHD.

    These insights suggest that genetic influences on brain size are fundamental to understanding the origins of mental health disorders. And understanding these genetic links is crucial. It shows how our genes can influence brain development and the risk of mental health conditions.

    By investigating shared genetic causes, we could one day develop treatments that address multiple conditions simultaneously, providing more effective support for individuals with various conditions. This is especially important in mental health, where it is common for someone to experience more than one disorder at the same time.

    Our study also revealed that genetic effects on brain structure are consistent across people from both European and non-European ancestry. This suggests that certain genetic factors have stuck around throughout human evolution.

    Bridging the gaps

    Our research also lays the groundwork for using genetic data to develop statistical models that predict disease risk based on a person’s genetic profile.

    These advancements could lead to population screening, identifying those at higher risk for specific mental health disorders. Early intervention could then help prevent or delay the onset of these conditions.

    In the future, our goal is to bridge the gaps between genetics, neuroscience, and medicine. This integration will help scientists answer critical questions about how genetic influences on brain structure affect behaviour and disease outcomes.

    Understanding the genetics of brain structure and mental health susceptibility can help us better prevent, diagnose and treat these conditions.

    The concept of the “human brain” first appeared in ancient Greece around 335 BCE. The philosopher Aristotle described it as a radiator that prevented the heart from overheating. While we now know Aristotle was wrong, the complexities of the brain and its links to mental health remain largely mysterious even today.

    As we continue to unlock the genetic secrets of the brain, we move closer to unravelling these mysteries. This type of research has the potential to transform our understanding and treatment of mental health.

    Luis M. García Marín receives funding from The University of Queensland (UQ).

    Miguel E. Rentería receives funding from the Rebecca L Cooper Medical Research Foundation, the Shake It Up Australia Foundation, The Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson’s Research & the Medical Research Future Fund.

    – ref. How do genes shape the structures in our brains? We studied 70,000 people and found new links to ADHD and Parkinson’s – https://theconversation.com/how-do-genes-shape-the-structures-in-our-brains-we-studied-70-000-people-and-found-new-links-to-adhd-and-parkinsons-231824

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Want to built healthier cities? Make room for bird and tree diversity

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Rachel Buxton, Assistant Professor, Department of Biology, Carleton University

    More than five million Canadians — approximately one in eight of us — are living with a mood, anxiety or substance use disorder. The prevalence of mental disorders is on the rise, with a third of those with a disorder reporting unmet or partially met needs for mental health-care services.

    The stresses of the city, where more than 70 per cent of Canadians now live, can increase the risk of poor mental health even further.

    When most people think about caring for their mental health, they may think about getting more exercise, getting more sleep and making sure they’re eating healthy. Increasingly, research is showing that spending time in nature surrounded by plants and wildlife can also contribute to preventing and treating mental illness.

    Our research focuses on the importance of birds and trees in urban neighbourhoods in promoting mental well-being. In our study, we combined more than a decade of health and ecological data across 36 Canadian cities and found a positive association between greater bird and tree diversity and self-rated mental health.

    The well-being benefits of healthy ecosystems will probably not come as a great surprise to urban dwellers who relish days out in the park or hiking in a nearby nature reserve. Still, the findings of our study speak to the potential of a nature-based urbanism that promotes the health of its citizens.



    Read more:
    How the health of honeybee hives can inform environmental policies in Canadian cities

    Birds, trees and human connection

    Across cultures and societies, people have strong connections with birds. The beauty of their bright song and colour have inspired art, music and poetry. Their contemporary cultural relevance has even earned them an affectionate, absurdist internet nickname: “birbs”.

    There’s something magical about catching a glimpse of a bird and hearing birdsong. For many urbanites, birds are our daily connection to wildlife and a gateway to nature. In fact, even if we don’t realize it, humans and birds are intertwined. Birds provide us with many essential services — controlling insects, dispersing seeds and pollinating our crops.

    People have similarly intimate connections with trees. The terms tree of life, family trees, even tree-hugger all demonstrate the central cultural importance trees have in many communities around the world. In cities, trees are a staple of efforts to bring beauty and tranquility.

    When the Australian city of Melbourne gave urban trees email addresses for people to report problems, residents responded by writing thousands of love letters to their favourite trees. Forest bathing, a practice of being calm and quiet among trees, is a growing wellness trend.

    Birds and trees as promoters of urban wellness

    Contact with nature and greenspace have a suite of mental health benefits.

    Natural spaces reduce stress and offer places for recreation and relaxation for urban dwellers, but natural diversity is key. A growing amount of research shows that the extent of these benefits may be related to the diversity of different natural features.

    For example, in the United States, higher bird diversity is associated with lower hospitalizations for mood and anxiety disorders and longer life expectancy. In a European study, researchers found that bird diversity was as important for life satisfaction as income.

    People’s connection to a greater diversity of birds and trees could be because we evolved to recognize that the presence of more species indicates a safer environment — one with more things to eat and more shelter. Biodiverse environments are also less work for the brain to interpret, allowing restoration of cognitive resources.

    To explore the relationship between biodiversity and mental health in urban Canada, we brought together unique datasets. First, we collected bird data sourced from community scientists, where people logged their bird sightings on an app. We then compared this data with tree diversity data from national forest inventories.

    Finally, we compared both of these data sets to a long-standing health survey that has interviewed approximately 65,000 Canadians each year for over two decades.

    We found that living in a neighbourhood with higher than average bird diversity increased reporting of good mental health by about seven per cent. While living in a neighbourhood with higher than average tree diversity increased good mental health by about five per cent.

    Importance of urban birds and trees

    The results of our study, and those of others, show a connection between urban bird and tree diversity, healthy ecosystems and people’s mental well-being. This underscores the importance of urban biodiversity conservation as part of healthy living promotion.

    Protecting wild areas in parks, planting pollinator gardens and reducing pesticide use could all be key strategies to protect urban wildlife and promote people’s well-being. Urban planners should take note.



    Read more:
    Eco-anxiety: climate change affects our mental health – here’s how to cope

    We’re at a critical juncture: just as we are beginning to understand the well-being benefits of birds and trees, we’re losing species at a faster rate than ever before. It’s estimated that there are three billion fewer birds in North America compared to the 1970s and invasive pests will kill 1.4 million street trees over the next 30 years.

    By promoting urban biodiversity, we can ensure a sustainable and healthy future for all species, including ourselves.

    Rachel Buxton receives funding from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, National Institutes of Health, and Environment and Climate Change Canada.

    Emma J. Hudgins received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Fonds de Recherche du Québec – Nature et Technologies for this work. She currently receives funding from Plant Health Australia.

    Stephanie Prince Ware has received funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

    – ref. Want to built healthier cities? Make room for bird and tree diversity – https://theconversation.com/want-to-built-healthier-cities-make-room-for-bird-and-tree-diversity-235379

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: We tried a different preschool curriculum to prevent youth crime. Checking in 20 years later, it worked

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jacqueline Allen, Senior Lecturer, Griffith University

    Shutterstock

    There’s been an increased political and media focus recently on so-called youth crime waves, particularly in Queensland and the Northern Territory.

    This has unfortunately led to crackdowns from governments and police. Young people in Alice Springs have been subject to curfews.

    Queensland Opposition Leader David Crisafulli (who’s ahead in the polls ahead of this weekend’s election) has suggested young people found guilty of some crimes should be sentenced as adults.

    But punitive youth crime policies violate children’s human rights and are an expensive way of making the community less safe. It’s much better to stop youth crime before it starts by supporting children’s positive development in early childhood.

    In a new evaluation published today, we found a preschool program reduced the amount of young people before the courts by more than 50%. When the right family support was provided too, the chances of the children committing crimes were even lower.

    Our original study

    Early community-based crime prevention strategies have been greatly neglected in Australia. This is despite international evidence and the recommendations of a widely circulated 1999 Commonwealth government report.

    Scientific evidence has been accumulating for more than 50 years that shows the root causes of serious youth crime can be addressed in early childhood through prevention initiatives. The most famous example is the Perry Preschool Project, implemented in a disadvantaged area of Michigan in the early 1960s.

    In Australia, the Pathways to Prevention Project operated in a disadvantaged, multicultural region of Brisbane from 2002 to 2011.

    It was a collaboration between Griffith University, the Queensland Department of Education, and national community agency Mission Australia.

    The children in the study learned communication skills through reading and games.
    Shutterstock

    The project aimed to improve child and youth outcomes by partnering with local preschools, schools, families and community organisations.

    In 2002 and 2003, 214 four-year-old children attending two local preschools received an enhanced program focused on communication skills. This is called an “enriched preschool program”.

    It was integrated into the standard curriculum and delivered by specialist teachers working with the children’s classroom teachers and their parents.

    Evidence at the time showed communication skills were directly linked to success at school. They were also linked to to success in life through improved behaviour and enhanced social skills.

    The communication program brought children together in small groups with similar levels of language competence. The groups were balanced in terms of gender and cultural background. They completed carefully curated activities including games, bookmaking and reading.

    Reading was a large part of the enriched preschool curriculum.
    Shutterstock

    These provided children with the opportunity to extend and practice oral language skills in ways that were personally meaningful. These activities were led by the specialist teachers who had postgraduate qualifications in communication and oral language development.

    The specialist teachers engaged parents and children in joint activities, and actively supported reading and language activities at home. By year one, children who received the communication curriculum had better language proficiency, social skills, classroom behaviour and academic achievement than children in the other preschools.

    The children’s families could also access practical support from community workers from their own cultural background. This included parenting education, advocacy with government agencies and counselling. This continued until 2011.

    What’s new?

    Earlier evaluations showed the enhanced curriculum helped improve children’s readiness for school, among a range of other benefits. Now we’ve evaluated the success of the program over the long term.

    Using anonymised data-linkage procedures, we followed up the students who received the enhanced curriculum back in 2002 to see what’s happened since.

    Children who received the enhanced curriculum had improved classroom behaviour throughout primary school. They were also 56% less likely to be involved in serious youth crime by age 17.



    Read more:
    Is Australia in the grips of a youth crime crisis? This is what the data says

    Remarkably, our evaluation found none of the children whose families also received support in the preschool years went on to offend.

    The full Pathways Program was implemented widely in the community over a ten-year period, so we thought it might have had an impact more broadly.

    We looked at the rate of youth offending in the region in the years 2008–16, when members of the 2002–03 preschool cohort were between 10 and 17 years old. It was 20% lower in this region than in other Queensland regions at the same low socioeconomic level.

    How does this lead to less youth crime?

    Programs like this work by levelling the playing field and improving the lives of children early in their developmental pathways. Developmental pathways are events and experiences that follow on from each other, or cascade, across the course of life.

    For instance, a difficult transition to school increases the likelihood of poor engagement and academic problems. These are well-known risk factors for antisocial behaviour.

    The long-term impact of Pathways to Prevention on youth offending means it could be a model for similar programs across Australia.

    This is especially the case given our nation’s chronic under-investment in community-based developmental crime prevention. We need more programs in disadvantaged communities that are open to everyone and don’t stigmatise people.

    Overwhelmingly, efforts across the country are devoted to early intervention with children identified as “at risk” in some way (such as showing disruptive behaviour), or to the treatment of young people who become enmeshed in the youth justice system.

    In Queensland, there is an over-reliance on youth detention, which is often very harmful for children and of no preventative value.

    Using Pathways as a model for other communities doesn’t necessarily mean exactly replicating what we did (though this is also important). Any early prevention initiative will have the best chance of success if it includes evidence-based strategies that improve children’s life chances.

    These can be implemented cost-effectively through existing systems including preschools, schools and primary care. Ideally, they should operate through local partnerships involved at all stages of planning, data collection, implementation and evaluation.

    Jacqueline Allen received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Institute of Criminology Research Grants.

    Kate Freiberg holds an unpaid position at RealWell and received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Institute of Criminology Research Grants.

    Emeritus Professor Ross Homel received funding from the Australian Research Council, Australian Institute of Criminology Research Grants, the Queensland Government and the John Barnes Foundation. He is affiliated with the Justice Reform Initiative as a Queensland Patron and provides honorary research support to RealWell Pty Ltd.

    – ref. We tried a different preschool curriculum to prevent youth crime. Checking in 20 years later, it worked – https://theconversation.com/we-tried-a-different-preschool-curriculum-to-prevent-youth-crime-checking-in-20-years-later-it-worked-235888

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Lee Miller helped shape our understanding of war. Her life as a photojournalist echo in those working today

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrea Jean Baker, Senior Lecturer in Journalism, Monash University

    STUDIOCANAL

    This story contains spoilers.

    Lee, the feature film debut from director Ellen Kuras, explores the rawness of authentic image making and the impact of gender in war reporting.

    Kate Winslet stars as the world weary photojournalist Elizabeth “Lee” Miller – better known for featuring in an iconic photograph, rather than taking one.

    The same day Adolf Hitler committed suicide at his Berlin bunker in 1945, photojournalist David E. Scherman took a photograph of Miller sitting in the bath in Hitler’s Munich apartment.

    But Miller was also a trailblazing, feminist photojournalist who managed to shift Vogue magazine from beauty and aesthetics to capturing the reality of the second world war. She gave us images of the frontline, fearful women and children, concentration camps, and the aftermath of war.

    Here’s what you should know about the real woman behind the film – and what we can learn about war correspondents today through her story.

    In front of and behind the camera

    Miller was born in New York in 1907, and began her bohemian life as a model for Vogue before the war, and as a muse to her surrealist mentor Man Ray.

    The film follows Miller from her work as a fashion photographer pre-war, through to her photographing the second world war and then the liberation of Paris in 1945.

    Lee explores tensions with other renowned photographers at the time, such as Cecil Beaton (Samuel Barnett); her relationship with the second husband, English artist, historian and poet, Roland Penrose (Alexander Skarsgård); and her connections to the French resistance.

    Female photojournalists of the time were usually assigned to taking portraits or working in fashion.

    Miller, second from right, with other female war correspondents who covered the U.S. Army, photographed in 1943.
    U.S. Army Official Photograph/Wikimedia Commons

    When Miller was in her 30s, her photographs for Vogue leaned towards the surreal. This was also seen in her Blitz images, where two staff from the magazine wearing creatively designed gas masks about to enter a bomb shelter was published in the London edition.

    When the war broke out, Miller was accredited as one of four American female photojournalists. Like fellow American Margaret Bourke-White, Miller was known for the horrific images of Buchenwald and Dachau concentration camps in Germany, reinforcing the fact that photojournalism tells a story that is more powerful than any other form of journalism.

    Ethics and photojournalism

    A 2019 study examined how professional photojournalists apply ethics to their work.

    Photojournalists believe photographs should be published alongside news, that photographers are key in supporting the public’s “right to know”, and they must balance “their obligation to the truth, while minimising harm”.

    You can see these ethical frameworks all at play in Miller’s work, especially in her images of Dachau just after the war.

    Lee faced similar issues around ethics that photojournalists face today.
    STUDIOCANAL

    The editor of British Vogue, Audrey Withers (played in the film by Andrea Riseborough), refused to publish the photos. But American Vogue published them in June 1945, with the headline “Believe it”, as a modern memorial to the war.

    But photojournalists also take actions that prioritise themselves. Sherman’s image of Miller sitting in Hitler’s bath, though a visual metaphor for the end of the war, has been criticised as a “look at me” moment.

    In 2006, the New York Times described the photograph as “a woman caught between horror and beauty, between being seen and being the seer”.

    The place of the woman photographer

    Contemporary research suggests female photojournalists are more empathetic and have better access to vulnerable subjects than their male counterparts.

    In the film, Miller’s gentle photo of a French woman publicly accused of being an informant to the Germans illustrates empathy, while masking the hidden contradictions of war.

    Befriending a frightened girl in a bomb shelter, Miller has flashbacks of her youth as a victim-survivor of sexual violence. “There are different kinds of wounds, not just the ones you see,” she says in the film.

    A survey in 2019 of 545 female photojournalists from 71 countries found women faced more obstacles than their male counterparts, are still considered subordinate in the profession and subject to sexism.

    During the war, Miller used the gender-neutral Lee as her first name, instead of Elizabeth, fearing press accreditation on the frontline would not be approved if she was a woman.

    The National Press Photographers Association say gender bias and assumptions still continue to hinder female photojournalists. These commonly held assumptions include women are weaker, less skilled and will eventually leave the profession to raise a child.

    Living through her archive

    Lee begins and ends with the 70-year-old Miller reflecting on her career to a young male journalist, while continuously gulping down alcohol, perhaps illustrating undiagnosed post traumatic stress syndrome, all too common among news photographers.

    Returning to London after the war, Miller gave up photojournalism.

    After her death in 1977, more than 60,000 negatives of her work were discovered in her attic at home. These images of surrealist photography, Vogue editorials, second world war photojournalism and portraits of important 20th century figures formed the basis of her 1985 biography, The lives of Lee Miller, written by her son Antony Penrose.

    Lee is a visually, brave story about a female photojournalist whose images alter and enlarge our notions of what is worth looking at – and what we have a right to observe.

    Andrea Jean Baker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Lee Miller helped shape our understanding of war. Her life as a photojournalist echo in those working today – https://theconversation.com/lee-miller-helped-shape-our-understanding-of-war-her-life-as-a-photojournalist-echo-in-those-working-today-236878

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: With 7 states deciding everything, can Trump and Harris reach the remaining swing voters – without alienating others?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Shortis, Adjunct Senior Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University

    Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina.

    In a repetitive, anxiety-inducing mantra, media coverage of the US presidential election between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris recites these seven states over and over again.

    The winner will almost certainly be decided by these states – perhaps a few of them, or maybe just one.

    Depending on your particular interpretation of the electoral map, the mantra might just be Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. Or could it be Wisconsin, Wisconsin, Wisconsin? Or perhaps it’s Georgia, Georgia, Georgia.

    Some analysts argue that to win, Harris needs to hold on to the “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three predominantly white states with large numbers of working-class voters. In 2016, Democrats were devastated by Trump’s sundering of this wall – he narrowly won all three.

    The Democratic victor in 2020, Joe Biden, rebuilt the wall with three wins in these states. (In fact, Biden won six of the seven battleground states in 2020, losing only North Carolina.)

    In this year’s campaign, Harris needs to keep it standing, while the Trump campaign is hoping to break it down again.

    But it’s also possible for some cracks to appear in the “blue wall” – if Harris can hold on in Pennsylvania, there is a path to victory for the Democrats through the remaining battleground states.

    The Trump campaign is, meanwhile, hoping it can repeat 2016 and break down the blue wall, particularly by winning the iconic rust-belt state of Michigan.

    An outsize focus on ‘swing voters’

    The critical role these seven states will play of course means they are the overwhelming focus of both campaigns and the media that covers them. Trump and Harris and their running mates have visited Pennsylvania and Michigan dozens of times, while residents of these states are being subjected to wall-to-wall television advertising.

    The other states are, effectively, stitched up for one side or the other.

    There’s no real possibility of Trump winning solidly Democratic New York or California. And no chance Harris will could win deep-red Wyoming or Tennessee.

    In the American democratic system, presidential elections are decided not via a national popular vote but the enslavement-era Electoral College (alongside widespread voter suppression). As a result, vast swathes of the American electorate are effectively disenfranchised.

    In the states that are in play, the polling margins are razor-thin, just as they have been in most elections this century.

    In 2020, for example, Biden won the popular vote by a four-point margin – seven million votes. But in the Electoral College, which is what actually decides the winner, Biden won by around 45,000 votes: 10,457 in Arizona, 11,779 in Georgia, and 20,682 in Wisconsin.

    While polls are only one indicator – and they aren’t always that reliable – they do suggest the result in the seven battleground states in 2024 may be that close again.

    That’s why both Harris and Trump have been spending so much time in those states. And it’s why their campaigns – as well as the media’s attention – are focused on finding as many voters in those places as they can.

    And because of the way the American electoral system works, this focus is disproportionately placed on certain types of voters – or “swing voters”.

    Both campaigns are chasing voters who may have gone for Trump in 2016 and then Biden four years later. They’re chasing “shy” Republicans or Democrats – voters who may be generally inclined to vote for one party or the other, but for whatever reason (usually, the particular candidate) are quiet about their choices.

    Since the role of the “blue wall” in both electoral politics and the American imagination is so pronounced, this means there’s an inordinate focus (often unconsciously) on white swing voters, in particular.

    Chasing the swing voters

    These voters may indeed turn out to be the critical deciding factor.

    But in American politics, it’s rarely one single thing that decides the outcome.

    In a system that does not have compulsory voting, in which small numbers of voters in a small number of states can change the result, voter turnout is the main game. This election cycle, it could matter a great deal.

    And that is why there is a hidden tension in both campaigns.

    In Trump land, there has been consistent pressure (and unsolicited advice) on Trump to “moderate” his stances on particular issues in order to appeal to those “shy” or swing voters.

    This is particularly the case with reproductive rights. It’s led to contradictory messaging from Trump – he’s taken full, individual credit for the overturning of Roe v. Wade while simultaneously insisting he is not supportive of extreme, right-wing positions on abortion bans.

    Trump’s pick of JD Vance as his vice presidential running mate suggests his campaign decided not to focus mostly on swing or shy voters, but on mobilising and expanding their core voter base of white men. That is reflected in much of Trump’s media strategy and his consistent presence on right-wing podcasts.

    But that is contradicted occasionally, and quite deliberately, by high-profile surrogates, including his wife.

    The Harris campaign, on the other hand, seems to be attempting to divide its focus more evenly. Harris is chasing swing voters by going on Fox News and sharing a stage with former Representative and harsh Trump critic Liz Cheney. She also appeared with 100 Republicans at an event in Pennsylvania this month.

    At the same time, the campaign is also attempting to drive turnout in key demographics for Democrats. Harris is targeting young women, particularly in the South, by going on popular podcasts like Call Her Daddy. Similarly, she is reaching out to Black men by appearing on platforms like Charlamagne tha God’s podcast in a live event in Detroit.

    Does the strategy work?

    The question for both campaigns is: does one of these tactics undermine the other?

    Might the alliance between Democrats and the Cheney family’s deeply conservative stances on foreign policy, for example, further undermine or depress turnout in a state like Michigan, where outrage and betrayal over Democratic support for Israel may well be a deciding factor?

    Alternatively, will Harris’ more hardline message on immigration depress enthusiasm amongst Black and Latino voters?

    Similarly, might the Republican Party’s position on reproductive rights, and the consequences of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, mean Trump continues to lose support with women, which might not be countered by a sizeable boost in men’s turnout?

    The answer is: we don’t know. And if the margins are indeed as close as the polling suggests, we may not know for some time after election day.

    Until then, the mantra keeps repeating:

    Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina.

    Emma Shortis is senior researcher in international and security affairs at The Australia Institute, an independent think tank.

    – ref. With 7 states deciding everything, can Trump and Harris reach the remaining swing voters – without alienating others? – https://theconversation.com/with-7-states-deciding-everything-can-trump-and-harris-reach-the-remaining-swing-voters-without-alienating-others-240670

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘We will not allow others to determine our fate’: Pacific nations dial up pressure on Australia’s fossil fuel exports

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liam Moore, Lecturer in International Politics and Policy, James Cook University

    Tuvalu’s Prime Minister Feleti Teo took to a stage in Apia, Samoa, on Thursday morning to say something pointed. Planned fossil fuel expansions in nations such as Australia represented, for his nation, a “death sentence”. The phrase “death sentence”, Teo said, had not been chosen lightly. He followed up with this: “We will not sit quietly and allow others to determine our fate.”

    Teo chose the moment for this broadside well – on the sidelines of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM), attended by both King Charles and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The speech came at the launch of a new report on moves by the “big three” Commonwealth states – the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia – to expand fossil fuel exports.

    These three states make up just 6% of the population of the Commonwealth’s 56 nations, but account for over 60% of the carbon emissions generated through extraction since 1990, the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative report shows.

    Canada and the UK are no climate angels, given their respective exports of highly polluting oil from oil sands and North Sea oil and gas. But Teo and others in the movement to stop proliferation of fossil fuels have reserved special criticism for Australia. That’s because Australia is now second only to Russia based on emissions from its fossil fuel exports and has the largest pipeline of coal export projects in the world – 61% of the world’s total.

    The elephant in the room

    Tuvalu, like many other small Pacific nations, is laser-focused on the threat of climate change. Across the Pacific, rising sea levels and saltwater intrusion are already pushing people to consider migration or retreat.

    Australia has long been influential in the Pacific, even more so as Western states try to outcompete Chinese funds and influence in the region. But fossil fuel exports are a very large elephant in the room.

    As Tuvalu’s leader points out, Australia is:

    morally obliged to ensure that whatever action it does [take] will not compromise the commitment it has provided in terms of climate impact.

    Teo pointed out the “obvious” inconsistency between Australia’s commitment to net zero by 2050 and ramping up fossil fuel exports.

    This year, Australia and Tuvalu’s groundbreaking Falepili Union treaty came into force. The treaty includes some migration rights for Tuvaluans as well as a controversial security agreement. But Teo has now flagged using this as leverage to “put pressure on Australia to align its activities in terms of fossil fuels”.

    Tuvalu’s diplomatic pressure is a small part of broader efforts by island states facing escalating climate damage to be seen not as passive victims but to emphasise, as Teo said, they are also “at the forefront of climate action”.

    Echoing these sentiments was Vanuatu’s climate envoy, Ralph Regenvanu. He called on Commonwealth nations to “not sacrifice the future of vulnerable nations for short-term gains”, and “to stop the expansion of fossil fuels in order to protect what we love and hold dear here in the Pacific”.

    Vanuatu and Tuvalu have led the campaign for a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty, committing signatories to ending expansion of fossil fuels. So far, 12 other nations have joined, including Fiji, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Republic of Marshall Islands, Colombia and the CHOGM host, Samoa.

    Australia all alone?

    It’s not surprising to see Australia facing these calls for action. The meeting is being held in Samoa, the first time a Pacific Island state has hosted Commonwealth leaders.

    Leaders of other large Commonwealth states have skipped the meeting. Notable by their absence were Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

    Climate action is one of several background issues in Apia. One of the more significant is the call for reparations for slavery from former British colonies – calls UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is keen to put to the side. But reports on the ground suggest the issues of reparations, monarchy and the future relevance of the Commonwealth are all in the shadow of the main concern – climate change.

    The meeting also serves as a precursor to November’s United Nations climate talks, the COP29 conference in Baku, Azerbaijan. Pacific nations are focused on building consensus on climate finance.

    Australia has its own concerns. The host of the 2026 COP31 conference will be announced in Baku, with a joint Australia-Pacific bid in competition with Türkiye. Observers suggest Australia is in the box seat, but it has faced consistent pressure from Pacific states to reconcile its actions with its climate rhetoric.

    There are domestic implications too. As the next federal election looms, the lure of a potential A$200 million windfall for the COP host city would be more than welcome.

    Securing an Australia-Pacific COP could also boost the government’s environmental credentials as it comes under sustained attack from the Greens over fossil fuels and the Coalition over energy security and nuclear power.

    In Apia, Pacific efforts to convince leaders of the need for greater climate action are reported to include a walk through a mangrove reserve for King Charles, guided by Samoan chief and parliamentarian Lenatai Vicor Tamapua. Tamapua told the ABC he showed leaders how king tides today were “about twice what it was 20, 30 years ago”, which he says is forcing people to “move inwards, inland now”.

    For Australia, difficult questions remain. How will it balance regional demands to phase out coal and gas exports with domestic pressures to maintain jobs, public funds and economic growth? Can it walk the tightrope and be the partner of choice in the Pacific while continuing to explore for, extract and export coal and gas?

    These questions will not be resolved in Apia. They might not even be resolved by the next federal government, or by the time COP31 arrives. But they will not go away.

    The way Australia and other exporters resolve these tensions will, as Teo says, decide whether Tuvalu stays liveable – or goes under.

    Liam Moore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘We will not allow others to determine our fate’: Pacific nations dial up pressure on Australia’s fossil fuel exports – https://theconversation.com/we-will-not-allow-others-to-determine-our-fate-pacific-nations-dial-up-pressure-on-australias-fossil-fuel-exports-242103

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Stalking rates in Australia are still shockingly high – one simple strategy might help

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Troy McEwan, Professor of Clinical and Forensic Psychology, Swinburne University of Technology

    UfaBizPhoto/Shutterstock

    New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reveals one in seven adult Australians have been stalked in their lifetime: one in five women and one in 15 men.

    While shocking to many, for those of us who work in the field, there is nothing surprising about these figures.

    The ABS has conducted similar surveys roughly every five years since 2005, which reveal basically the same results each time.

    About 3-4% of women and 1-2% of men are victims of stalking every year.

    These rates are consistent with those reported in research from the United Kingdom and United States, with small variations depending on definition.

    Stalking rates have remained stubbornly consistent despite the same ABS survey showing reductions in the rates of intimate partner violence and general violence over the past decade.

    The reasons for this are unclear, though there are obvious differences in the level of government and community investment in countering intimate partner violence versus awareness of and attention to stalking.

    What exactly is stalking?

    Stalking is a pattern of repeated and unwanted behaviour in which one person pushes their way into the life of another where they have no legitimate right to be, causing the target distress and fear.

    The most common methods are unwanted communication (by phone or digital media) and unwanted contacts (such as following someone or loitering nearby).

    Threats of violence and assault occur in at least a quarter of cases.

    Stalking that persists for more than two weeks is more likely to continue and cause significant harm.

    The impact of stalking

    Victims of persistent stalking have described it as “psychological rape”, with the stalker invading every part of their life.

    The cumulative impact of seemingly never-ending intrusions, and their social and financial toll, is probably why stalking victims report high rates of depression, anxiety and traumatic stress disorders.

    Researchers have estimated being stalked for 14 months costs victims approximately $A140,000, including direct costs from lost work and legal expenses and indirect costs of physical and mental harm.

    Who stalks?

    Most stalking is perpetrated by people who are known to the victim, either as an acquaintance or an ex-partner, with strangers responsible for about 20-25% of stalking.

    Stalking usually starts either because the person feels mistreated and stalks to take revenge or right the wrong, or they stalk to start or enact a relationship with the victim that does not exist. In a small number of cases, stalking has a sexual motivation and can sometimes be part of planning or preparation for a sexual assault.

    Regardless of motivation, most stalking is communicative – the stalker wants the victim to know they exist and to feel like they must respond.

    However, responding to a stalker is not advisable as it usually just adds fuel to the emotional fire that drives them.

    Ex-partners account for just under half of all stalking cases and many more women than men are stalked by an ex.

    Stalking in this context is a type of intimate partner violence and it receives by far the most attention and response.

    Research suggests that intimate partner stalking is more often identified as being perpetrated by former rather than current partners.

    Psychological abuse or coercive control during a relationship might be linked to increased potential for stalking after a break-up.

    Physical violence is much more common in cases of ex-partner stalking, with the ABS survey and earlier research finding half of intimate partner stalkers used physical violence.

    Thankfully, most stalking-related violence does not cause severe physical harm and homicide is extremely rare.

    Although prior stalking is common in ex-partner homicides, recent Victorian research showed that of 5,026 intimate partner violence reports to police involving stalking, only nine involved fatal or near fatal violence in the following 12 months.

    This means the presence of stalking is not a useful risk factor for trying to predict intimate partner homicide.

    Strategies against stalking

    Numerous strategies have been identified to prevent and reduce stalking-related harms. Among those tried largely outside Australia:

    The Victorian Law Reform Commission’s 2022 review of stalking laws recommended adoption of several of these strategies, though to date the state government has committed only to revising the stalking law.

    A simple but powerful strategy

    Stalking is a complicated problem and a comprehensive response needs multi-faceted systemic change that will be costly and take much effort and time.

    Currently, there doesn’t seem to be an appetite in Australia for the work required.

    However, there is one relatively straightforward thing the federal, state and territory governments could do right now to help: establish a national stalking helpline that can provide specialist information, advice and advocacy for all victims.

    Such a helpline was established in the UK in 2010 and has supported more than 65,000 people.

    The helpline provides online and telephone advice to potential stalking victims, including basic risk assessment, advocacy and links to local support services. It also provides advice to mental health professionals and others who are supporting stalking victims.

    The helpline serves all people, regardless of their gender or relationship with the stalker. Nearly half (45%) of its clients are stalked by a stranger or acquaintance, not an ex-partner. This highlights the importance of a specialised stalking response separate to existing services for family and intimate partner violence.

    An Australian equivalent would provide immediate support for victims and a focal point for necessary research and evaluation into what works to stop stalking.

    An Australian national stalking helpline would be a practical, relatively inexpensive and immediately helpful strategy that governments could implement to support the hundreds of thousands of Australians who are stalked every year.

    Troy McEwan has received funding from the Australian Research Council and Victoria Police for stalking-related research.

    – ref. Stalking rates in Australia are still shockingly high – one simple strategy might help – https://theconversation.com/stalking-rates-in-australia-are-still-shockingly-high-one-simple-strategy-might-help-241891

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why Woolworths workers can’t sleep at night: inside the supermarket giant’s controversial ‘Framework’

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lauren Kate Kelly, PhD Candidate, ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society, RMIT University

    In early 2024, Woolworths introduced a new worker performance management program across warehouses run by the company’s distribution arm, Primary Connect.

    Under the program, known as the Coaching and Productivity Framework or simply “the Framework”, workers say they face potential disciplinary action if they fail to achieve 100% adherence to a speed-related metric known as pick rates. This represents a sharp break from previous approaches in which a pick rate of 100% was a non-enforceable goal, rather than a basic requirement.

    A Primary Connect spokesperson told The Conversation the Framework is more flexible, ensuring “a fair approach to the standards is applied to any personal circumstances or abilities”, with exemptions “for when a team member is unable to perform to standards, including pregnancy, disability or injury”.

    Workers say the new system creates huge stress and leads to unsafe work practices.

    An outline of the Woolworths Coaching and Productivity Framework.
    Woolworths

    ‘Scientific management’

    Although pick rates are common across warehousing, enforcing 100% compliance is highly unusual. In a memo to warehouse staff, Woolworths justified the strict enforcement of pick rates by claiming they are based on “engineered standards”, which are “the times that a trained and competent person should take to complete a set task safely using the ‘agreed method’ for that task”.

    Engineered standards (or engineered labour standards) are also widespread in the warehousing industry. Developed in the early 20th century by US management consultants, engineered standards follow the stopwatch studies and time-and-motion methodologies of Frederick Winslow Taylor, the pioneer of “scientific management”.

    To this day, engineered standards may be developed by “putting the stopwatch” on workers to record and standardise the time taken to perform a particular task. These data sets may be used to develop and justify pick rates.

    Turning workers into data points

    The use of engineered standards integrates workers into Woolworths’ ongoing program of increased automation and surveillance across its business.

    Much like inventory, workers’ bodies also become a data point to be monitored in terms of speed and movement. Engineered standards encode the assumption that human labour can be rationalised in the same way as the activity of a machine.

    Engineered standards promise the ability to control the output of workers at every moment. In practice, the application of engineered standards is often flawed and inaccurate.

    Regardless of accuracy, engineered standards and other algorithmic systems may have other benefits for management, providing a veneer of technological objectivity for decision-making.

    Confusing and inconsistent

    Through research for my PhD and my work with the United Workers Union, I have heard many concerns from workers subjected to the Framework.

    One common concern is that, due to the algorithmic nature of the Framework, the pick rate is opaque. In practice, workers do not know what 100% compliance means, so they do not even know what is expected of them.

    Workers report that rates seem to change and are applied inconsistently across different departments.

    The psychological impact has been significant. Workers have reported lying awake at night and experiencing heightened anxiety of job loss following the introduction of the Framework.

    One worker told me:

    I can’t sleep thinking about what would happen if I lost my job because I didn’t meet the standards a few times and my average wasn’t high enough.

    Another said:

    I frequently go to sleep and dream of picking at work. I find myself thinking of work at home and dreaming of work when I’m sleeping. I’m constantly on edge whenever I see a team leader, thinking I’ve done something wrong.

    And a third:

    I have some personal issues at home with my marriage and I’m laying awake thinking about my pick rate and if I will have a job tomorrow.

    Speed and safety

    Workers have also reported they feel compelled to prioritise speed over safety to meet the pick rate, or risk losing their job. At the same time, failure to work safely can also result in disciplinary action, injury or worse.

    Failure to meet the pick rate may result in a “tap on the shoulder” from management. This may be followed by notification that “coaching” will commence as part of a 12-week performance management program.

    Coaching consists of working under the close supervision of a manager who is tasked with observing the worker’s movements and appraising their speed against a company checklist.

    In the words of another worker:

    They are watching you, following you around with a clipboard, piece of paper and a pen. Writing stuff down behind you. It feels degrading.

    Monitoring ‘gap times’ such as toilet breaks

    Distribution centres are complex and dynamic environments. Congestion builds in aisles, equipment glitches and breaks, pallets spill, and batteries go flat.

    Woolworths claims the Framework takes into account “gap times”, which include reasonable periods of unavoidable delay, worker fatigue, rest breaks and so on.

    Gap times refer to any time during a shift when a worker is not actively on task. Workers report that time pressures have resulted in breaks being skipped, and safety measures disregarded, to meet pick rate targets and avoid disciplinary action.

    A question of control

    Following widespread worker disputes, including one filed with the Fair Work Commission in April, the Framework has been temporarily placed on pause. If reinstated, it would take effect at 15 distribution centres across the country, impacting about 8,000 permanent workers and, indirectly or directly, several thousand casual labour-hire workers.

    Woolworths team members represented by the United Workers Union are currently bargaining for a new enterprise agreement. Abolition of the Framework and related disciplinary action is a key demand of the union.

    In a statement to The Conversation, a Primary Connect spokesperson said:

    We have listened to the feedback from the union on the Framework, and will engage our teams in the distribution centres and the union in due course. As the country’s largest private sector employer, we are committed to ensuring that our workplaces are safe and productive for our teams and customers.

    Beyond Woolworths, the contest over pick rates raises a broader question: to what extent should an employer be able to dictate the speed of work?

    Clearly, an employer can assign the duration of a shift and ask workers to perform their role to the best of their abilities, but should workers retain the right to control the speed at which they move their own body?

    The future of the Woolworths Framework may have widespread implications for working life in Australia.

    Lauren Kate Kelly receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society. She is affiliated with the United Workers Union, which represents workers across the supermarket supply chain.

    – ref. Why Woolworths workers can’t sleep at night: inside the supermarket giant’s controversial ‘Framework’ – https://theconversation.com/why-woolworths-workers-cant-sleep-at-night-inside-the-supermarket-giants-controversial-framework-242015

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: California’s governor blocked landmark AI safety laws. Here’s why it’s such a key ruling for the future of AI worldwide

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Irfan Mehmood, Associate Professor in Business Analytics and AI, University of Bradford

    Anggalih Prasetya / Shutterstock

    In a world where artificial intelligence is rapidly shaping the future, California has found itself at a critical juncture. The US state’s governor, Gavin Newsom, recently blocked a key AI safety bill aimed at tightening regulations on generative AI development.

    The Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act (SB 1047) was seen by many as a necessary safeguard on the technology’s development. Generative AI covers systems that produce new content in text, video, images and music – often in response to questions, or “prompts”, by a user.

    But Newsom said the bill risked “curtailing the very innovation
    that fuels advancement in favour of the public good”. While agreeing the public needs to be protected from threats posed by the technology, he argued that SB 1047 was not “the best approach”.

    What happens in California is so important because it is the home of Silicon Valley. Of the world’s top 50 AI companies, 32 are currently headquartered within the state. California’s legislature therefore has a unique role in efforts to ensure the safety of AI-based technology.

    But Newsom’s decision also reflects a deeper question: can innovation and safety truly coexist, or do we have to sacrifice one to advance the other?

    California’s tech industry contributes billions of dollars to the state’s economy and generates thousands of jobs. Newsom, along with prominent tech investors such as Marc Andreessen, believes too many regulations could slow down AI’s growth. Andreessen praised the veto, saying it supports “economic growth and freedom” over excessive caution.

    However, rapidly advancing AI technologies could bring serious risks, from spreading disinformation to enabling sophisticated cyberattacks that could harm society.
    One of the significant challenges is understanding just how powerful today’s AI systems have become.

    Generative AI models, like OpenAI’s GPT-4, are capable of complex reasoning and can produce human-like text. AI can also create incredibly realistic fake images and videos, known as deepfakes, which have the potential to undermine trust in the media and disrupt elections. For example, deepfake videos of public figures could be used to spread disinformation, leading to confusion and mistrust.

    AI-generated misinformation could also be used to manipulate financial markets or incite social unrest. The unsettling part is that no one knows exactly what’s coming next. These technologies open doors for innovation – but without proper regulation, AI tools could be misused in ways that are difficult to predict or control.

    Gavin Newsom said the bill could stifle innovation.
    Sheila Fitzgerald / Shutterstock

    Traditional methods of testing and regulating software fall short when it comes to generative AI tools that can create artificial images or video. These systems evolve in ways that even their creators can’t fully anticipate, especially after being trained on vast amounts of data from interactions with millions of people, such as ChatGPT.

    SB 1047 sought to address this concern by requiring companies to implement “kill switches” in their AI software that can deactivate the technology in the even of a problem. The law would also have required them to create detailed safety plans for any AI project with a budget over US$100 million (£77.2m).

    Critics said the bill was too broad, meaning it could affect even lower-risk projects. But its main goal was to set up basic protections in an industry that’s arguably moving faster than lawmakers can keep up with.

    California as a global leader

    What California decides could affect the world. As a global tech leader, the state’s approach to regulating AI could set a standard for other countries, as it has done in the past. For example, California’s leadership in setting stringent vehicle emissions standards through the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA), and its early regulation of self-driving cars, have influenced other states and countries to adopt similar measures.

    But by vetoing SB 1047, California may have sent a message that it’s not ready to lead the way in AI regulation. This could leave room for other countries to step in – countries that may not care as much as the US about ethics and public safety.

    Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, had cautiously supported the bill, acknowledging that while it was a “tough call”, it was probably a good idea. His stance shows that even tech insiders recognise the risks AI poses. This might be a sign the industry is ready to work with policymakers on how best to regulate this new breed of technology.

    The notion that regulation automatically stifles innovation is misleading. Effective laws can create a framework that not only protects people, but allows AI to grow sustainably. For example, regulations can help ensure that AI systems are developed responsibly, with considerations for privacy, fairness and transparency. This can build public trust, which is essential for the widespread adoption of AI technologies.

    The future of AI doesn’t have to be a choice between innovation and safety. By implementing reasonable safeguards, we can unlock the full potential of AI while keeping society safe. Public engagement is crucial in this process. People need to be informed about AI’s capabilities and risks to participate in shaping policies that reflect society’s values.

    The stakes are high and AI is advancing rapidly. It’s time for proactive action to ensure we reap the benefits of AI without compromising our safety. But California’s killing of the AI bill also raises a wider question on the increasing power and influence of tech companies, given they raised objections that subsequently led to its veto.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. California’s governor blocked landmark AI safety laws. Here’s why it’s such a key ruling for the future of AI worldwide – https://theconversation.com/californias-governor-blocked-landmark-ai-safety-laws-heres-why-its-such-a-key-ruling-for-the-future-of-ai-worldwide-240182

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: From a salty breeze to the stench of sewage, here’s how smell affects our ocean experience and reflects changing seas

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jieling Xiao, Reader in Architecture and Sensory Environments, School of Architecture and Design, Birmingham City University

    Happy Together/Shutterstock

    Apart from the breathtaking sight of vast blue waters or the rhythmic sound of crashing waves, the vivid smell of the sea ties us to the rhythms of nature and the ebb and flow of the tides. The salty freshness of a coastal breeze or the distinctive scent of seaweed can transport us back to memories of seaside holidays, fishing trips, or childhood adventures.

    A “smellscape” is the perceived smell environment which can be fleeting or may build over time, depending on our past experiences and backgrounds.

    My research investigates how smells trigger feelings, imaginations and memories in places. As geographer Paul W. Rodaway noted 30 years ago, “olfaction gives us not just a sensuous geography of places and spatial relationships, but also an emotional one of love and hate, pain and joy, attachment and alienation”.

    There’s no single ocean smell. Smellscapes of the sea are multi-layered; they are shaped by interactions between water, marine life and environmental conditions. Every time we breathe in sea air, we receive information from the marine environment – the chemicals generated from the ecological processes or contaminants produced by human activities.

    Swimming, sailing, even just building a sandcastle – the ocean benefits our physical and mental wellbeing. Curious about how a strong coastal connection helps drive marine conservation, scientists are diving in to investigate the power of blue health.

    This article is part of a series, Vitamin Sea, exploring how the ocean can be enhanced by our interaction with it.

    The main chemical that contributes to that distinctive sea smell is dimethyl sulphide. This volatile organic compound containing sulphur that’s present in air and water in all marine areas.

    Dimethyl sulphide, along with the evaporation of salty sea spray, creates that sharp, tangy smell that’s synonymous with the coastal experience. The concentration of dimethyl sulphide depends on many biological processes in the ocean. Marine algae produce a chemical called dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) which helps regulate their internal conditions during times of environmental stress. When algae die, that DMSP is released into the surrounding water where bacteria and enzymes convert it into dimethyl sulphide.

    The Moon also affects the smell of the sea because the growth of algae changes with the tides. American marine biologist Rachel Carson described the impact of moon cycle on the ocean smell in her book The Sea Around Us (1951):

    …for a time each spring, the waters may become blotched with brown, jellylike masses, and the fishermen’s nets come up dripping a brown slime and containing no fish, for the herring have turned away from these waters as though in loathing of the viscid, foul-smelling algae. But in less time than passes between the full moon and the new, the spring flowering of Phaeocystis is past and the waters have cleared again.

    Changing smells reflect the changes in dynamics between marine life, water, the atmosphere and human activities. The foul smell from algae indicates decomposition and anaerobic activity in the water. The smell of decay often accompanies oxygen-deprived environments where organic matter breaks down. Monitoring the olfactory signals of ecosystems, such as the concentration of dimethyl sulphide or the smell of decaying algae, can provide insights into the health of marine environments and signal potential problems like low oxygen levels or contamination.

    Scientists have started to explore the impact of climate change on the sea smells. Recent research by Matthew Salter, a marine biogeochemist at Stockholm University, investigates the volatile organic compounds (gaseous chemicals) emitted by cyanobacteria and other plankton that inhabit coastlines of the Baltic Sea. His team studies how these chemicals contribute to the formation of aerosols leading to climate change.

    Researchers at Stockholm University explain how the smell of the sea is linked to the climate.

    Saving healthy smellscapes

    Preserving the natural scents of the sea requires concerted efforts to reduce sewage pollution and plastic waste reaching the sea. That involves promoting sustainable fishing practices and urban development, and mitigating climate change that causes extreme weather and rising sea levels that threaten marine habitats and coastal landscapes. Oceans are becoming more acidic as more carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere.

    New findings suggest that ocean acidification may affect how sea creatures detect smells, which, in turn, affects their ability to detect predators, find food and track mates.



    Read more:
    Oceans may become too acidic for animals to smell their way around

    Melting ice caps and thawing permafrost are also releasing bacteria and other microbes that have been dormant for thousands or even millions of years. So how the sea smellscapes might change over the coming decades and centuries is unpredictable.

    Meanwhile, creatives are pioneering ways to document ocean smellscapes. In the tidalectics project, Norwegian chemist Sissel Tolaas collected oceanic smells from the Caribbean and the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica, analysed the key chemicals and reproduced them. At her exhibition, she presented smells from waves to pollution to alert people about ecological change through their noses.

    Researcher and artist Kate Mclean creates maps to illustrate smellscapes. In Newport, a seaside city on Rhode Island in the US, she documented the ocean-based smells to build a visual-olfactory catalogue. Different colour codes represent different collective responses to smells from people who joined Mclean on a smell walk. Blue lines show ocean smells spreading across the island as they are encountered frequently by residents and visitors.

    As the environment changes, documenting smellscapes of the ocean could provide insight into the state of our seas and our relationship with coastal waters. So next time you take a breath of fresh air, by the sea or otherwise, take a moment to think about scent ecology. Our relationships with smells play a crucial role in connecting us to nature and telling us more about the health of our oceans.

    Jieling Xiao does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. From a salty breeze to the stench of sewage, here’s how smell affects our ocean experience and reflects changing seas – https://theconversation.com/from-a-salty-breeze-to-the-stench-of-sewage-heres-how-smell-affects-our-ocean-experience-and-reflects-changing-seas-239022

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Research shows our understanding of ‘posh’ words is all wrong

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Natalie Braber, Professor, Linguistics, School of Arts and Humanities, Nottingham Trent University

    Language use complicates the already-complex nature of class identity. Diane Bondareff/Shutterstock

    If you live in the UK or are familiar with its wide range of accents and dialects, you can probably tell the difference between a posh or upper-class accent, (think the “King’s English”) and one more associated with the working class (such as Cockney).

    Besides accents, it is a popular view, reinforced in media and pop culture, that certain words are used specifically by people of certain classes. For example, in the book Watching the English, social anthropologist Kate Fox comments that the word “sofa” is used by upper-middle-class speakers or above.

    In the 1950s, Alan Ross, a professor of linguistics at the University of Birmingham, claimed to identify behaviour that distinguished England’s upper classes from the rest of society. These included, among other things, not playing tennis in braces and an aversion to high tea.

    He also identified features of pronunciation, grammar and use of specific words which he thought differed. This was not based on empirical research, but solely on his own perceptions (“armchair linguistics”). While Ross’s claims are often referenced in the media, there has not been much research to see if these views hold up today.

    Through two studies carried out with our colleagues George Bailey and Eddie O’Hara Brown, we tried to find out. We investigated the use of words that Ross and others have identified as indicators of class: the supposedly upper-class words loo, napkin and sofa, with their supposedly non-upper-class counterparts, toilet, serviette and settee.

    In the first study, we used spot-the-difference tasks to prompt 80 participants of different ages, genders and social classes to say these words. For example, “the sofa is a different colour in that picture” or “the toilet is green in the left picture and white in the right one”. This meant that participants were focused more on the task than the actual words, so we were able to examine their natural usage.



    Read more:
    When did class stop predicting who people vote for in Britain? Know Your Place podcast

    While the supposedly upper-class napkin and sofa were more common than serviette or settee, the supposedly non-upper-class toilet was more common than loo. For example, where napkin was used by 72 participants, only 18 used serviette (some speakers used multiple words). This challenges Ross’s claims that words distinguish the upper class from the rest of society. If most people use a word, that word cannot be a reliable indicator of upper classness.

    In terms of social variation, we found that the usage of these words varied, but not in a way associated with social class. For example, there were some interesting results relating to age. While, on the one hand, the reportedly upper-class loo is used more by older speakers, the supposedly non-upper-class serviette and settee are also more commonly used by older speakers.

    Perception of words and class

    We also wanted to examine the perception of these words, as in whether people think certain words are associated with social characteristics, such as education level, professionalism, formality and poshness, which are traits associated with class.

    So, in a second experiment, we asked 100 participants to evaluate several social media posts, asking them to judge the writers. Half of the participants read the “upper-class word” and half read the “non-upper-class” word within an otherwise identical phrase, adapted from genuine posts on social media.

    For example, one message was: “My flatmate went to a wedding and I brought takeaway, was almost done eating before I saw something that looks like a fried egg, put it in my mouth and it was a napkin/serviette. God why me!?”

    From this experiment, we found that the perception of these words is not uniform across social groups. For example, the higher socioeconomic group thought sofa to be more posh, while the lower socioeconomic group perceived settee as more posh.

    There were no perceptual differences between toilet/loo. And serviette was perceived as more posh than napkin, despite being identified by Ross and others as the non-upper-class form.

    Napkin or serviette?
    Shutterstock

    Both of our studies, as well as complementary analysis of the spoken British National Corpus (a 10 million word database of spoken English), show that there is little consistency in the way that each of the investigated variables are used and perceived.

    Of course, this is not to say that there are no class-based vocabulary markers in contemporary British English, or that the effects of such perceptions do not have an effect. As much other linguistic research shows, class-based accent and dialect discrimination are unfortunately still alive and well.

    While the view that some words are posher than others has endured, our findings show that the claims popularised by Ross in the 1950s are not reflected in the reality of England today.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Research shows our understanding of ‘posh’ words is all wrong – https://theconversation.com/research-shows-our-understanding-of-posh-words-is-all-wrong-240362

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: BFI London Film Festival 2024 – a cinema academic’s look at the year ahead on the big screen

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Louis Bayman, Associate Professor in Department of Film Studies, University of Southampton

    This year’s London Film Festival boasted 254 feature and short films, with an all-time high of 44% of the films screened by female and non-binary directors. But the festival’s most newsworthy event concerned a film that wasn’t screened at all.

    To the dismay of its director, Havana Marking, the documentary Undercover: Exposing the Far Right was cancelled at the last minute with festival staff citing safety concerns in the wake of the summer riots. The documentary seeks to expose the political influence of a shadowy US-UK network that promotes racist scientific views. Although it missed out on its opportunity for a theatrical showing, the film is now airing on Channel 4 and is receiving good reviews.

    Like all festivals, there were prizes to be won and the festival jury awarded best feature film to Memoir of a Snail. This is the first time that a stop-motion animation has won the award. Directed by Adam Elliot and featuring the voice of Succession star Sarah Snook, the jury praised it as “emotionally resonant and constantly surprising”, adding that it “tackles pertinent issues such as bullying, loneliness and grief head-on.”



    Read more:
    Overtly handmade and so very moving: Adam Elliot’s Memoir of A Snail is a stop motion triumph

    This may turn out to be an unpopular decision with critics, given how many of them complained about the emotional nature of the festival’s opening night gala film, Steve McQueen’s wartime drama Blitz. McQueen’s genius for realising the restrictive nature of particular historical moments is always achieved with a special intensity, whether with Irish political prisoners in Hunger or the pre-emancipation US of 12 Years a Slave.

    Blitz takes as its setting three days in London in 1940, featuring a child who manages to flee evacuation and has to find his way through a bombed-out London back home to his mother. The film even alludes to Charles Dickens as the boy tries to dodge the ne’er-do-wells of the city streets.

    The boy is bi-racial and the film’s representation of the Black life of the city is a corrective to more commonplace images of a monocultural wartime Britain. But its family drama conjures more pathos than is usual for McQueen. The film thus revises, if not destroys, the myth of national unity that has grown up around the blitz. It incorporates racial and class divisions but the critical consensus seemed to be that its sentimentality let the film down.

    Alternatively, The Apprentice, the true story of the rise of Donald Trump under the tutelage of cutthroat lawyer Roy Cohn, showed considerable restraint depicting its uniquely polarising protagonist. The film finds Trump dodging lawsuits in the crisis-ridden New York of the 1970s, only to prosper in the greed-is-good real estate boom of the 1980s.

    Sebastian Stan’s Trump avoids caricature, almost garnering affection before eventually becoming the babbling fountain of profound vacuity that we recognise today. With excellent performances from Jeremy Strong as Cohn and Maria Bakalova as Ivana Trump the film succeeds most as a revisitation of the iconic images of New York’s modern history through the prism of Trump. This revisitation occurs first in its retro imitation of early Martin Scorsese films and then with the grain of a boardroom melodrama shot on VHS.

    The festival also included some righteously powerful political denunciations.

    The Seed of the Sacred Fig deserves special mention as an acutely powerful portrait of a family undergoing the increasingly suspenseful stirrings of rebellion amid the “women, life, freedom” protests in Iran.

    I’m Still Here, a return to directing from City of God’s Walter Salles, presents the intersection of the personal and the political in a very different way. The film tells the true story of the leftwing congressman Rubens Paiva’s disappearance by the Brazilian military dictatorship in 1971 and the heartbreaking tension of his family’s life-long search for answers.

    Other notable returns from veteran directors included Mike Leigh’s depiction of the struggles of mental illness in Hard Truths, a blend of social realism and fairytale set in Gravesend, and Pedro Almodóvar’s first English-language film The Room Next Door. Two films that achieved a particular buzz among festival attendees and that are set to achieve a wide general release are Anora, Sean Baker’s comedy drama about a mismatched marriage between a lapdancer and a Russian oligarch’s son, and Conclave, set around the choosing of a new Pope starring Ralph Fiennes and Stanley Tucci.

    I had some personal favourites of the films that garnered fewer headlines. The first is All We Imagine As Light, an allusive portrait of the dislocating effects of modern city life among three female friends in Mumbai. Another is Four Mothers, a remake of the Italian comedy Mid-August Lunch transposed to Ireland. Featuring an aspiring writer whose friends go on holiday and leave their elderly mothers for him to look after, its blend of humour and sensitivity achieves exquisite delicacy.

    And finally, The Surfer wins my award for the cinema’s potential for delirious incoherence. Set entirely in a car park overlooking a beach, this comedy-thriller-folk horror explores suburban aspirational masculinity through a characteristically demented star turn by Nicolas Cage.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Louis Bayman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. BFI London Film Festival 2024 – a cinema academic’s look at the year ahead on the big screen – https://theconversation.com/bfi-london-film-festival-2024-a-cinema-academics-look-at-the-year-ahead-on-the-big-screen-242049

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: IMF isn’t doing enough to support Africa: billions could be made available through special drawing rights

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Kevin P. Gallagher, Professor of Global Development Policy and Director, Global Development Policy Center, Boston University

    At the 2021 UN Climate Summit, Barbados prime minister Mia Mottley called for more and better use of special drawing rights (SDRs), the International Monetary Fund’s reserve asset.

    The special drawing right is an international reserve asset created by the IMF. It is not a currency – its value is based on a basket of five currencies, the biggest chunk of which is the US dollar, followed by the euro. It is a potential claim on the freely usable currencies of IMF members. Special drawing rights can provide a country with liquidity.

    Countries can use their special drawing rights to pay back IMF loans, or they can exchange them for foreign currencies.

    As Mottley is the newest president of the Climate Vulnerable Forum and Vulnerable Group of 20 (V20) finance ministers, which represents 68 climate-vulnerable countries that are among those with the most dire liquidity needs, including 32 African countries, her call would be directly beneficial to African countries.

    In August 2021, as the shock from the COVID-19 pandemic battered their economies, African countries received a lifeline of US$33 billion from special drawing rights. This amounts to more than all the climate finance Africa receives each year, and more than half of all annual official development assistance to Africa.

    This US$33 billion did not add to African countries’ debt burden, it did not come with any conditions, and it did not cost donors a single cent to provide.

    IMF members can vote to create new issuances of special drawing rights. They are then distributed to countries in proportion to their quotas in the IMF. Quotas are denominated in special drawing rights, the IMF’s unit of account.

    Quotas are the building blocks of the IMF’s financial and governance structure. An individual member country’s quota broadly reflects its relative position in the world economy. Thus, by design, the poorest and most vulnerable countries receive the least when it comes to quotas and voting shares.

    Special drawing rights cannot solve all of Africa’s economic challenges. And their highly technical nature means they are not always well understood. But at a time when African countries are facing chronic liquidity challenges – most countries in the region are spending more on debt service payments than they are on health, education, or climate change – our new research shows that special drawing rights can play an important role in establishing financial stability and enabling investments for development.

    Financial stability includes macroeconomic stability (such as low inflation, healthy balance of payments, sufficient foreign reserves), a strong financial system and resilience to shocks.

    African leaders are approaching a critical year-long opportunity: in November, the first Group of 20 (G20) summit will convene (with the African Union in attendance as a member for the first time). Then in December South Africa assumes the G20 presidency.



    Read more:
    South Africa will be president of the G20 in 2025: two much-needed reforms it should drive

    As African leaders advocate for reforms to the international financial architecture, maximising the potential of special drawing rights should be a central component of their agenda.

    The problem

    African countries’ finances are facing tough times. External debt in sub-Saharan Africa has tripled since 2008. The average government is now spending 12% of its revenue on external debt service. The COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and rises in interest rates and the prices of commodities, like food and fertiliser, have all contributed to this trend.

    Debt restructuring mechanisms have also proved inadequate. Countries like Zambia and Ghana got stuck in lengthy restructurings. Weak institutional capacity and poor governance also impede efficient use of public resources.

    At the same time, African economies need to increase investment to advance development, support a young and growing population, develop climate resilience and take advantage of the opportunity presented by the energy transition.

    To meet the resources for a just energy transition and the attainment of the UN 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, investment in climate and development will have to increase from around 24% of GDP (the average for Africa in 2022) to 37%.

    Special drawing rights have proved to be an important tool in addressing these challenges. Research by the IMF and others shows that African countries significantly benefited from the special drawing rights they received in 2021 to stabilise their economies. And this happened without worsening debt burdens or costing advanced economies any money, particularly as they cut development aid.

    However, advanced economies exercise significant control over the availability of special drawing rights. The IMF’s quota system determines both voting power and their distribution. Advanced economies control most of the IMF’s quotas.

    The advanced economies made the right decision in 2021 and in 2009 to issue new special drawing rights and the time has come again.

    The solution

    African and other global south leaders need to make a strong case for another issuance of special drawing rights at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington.

    In addition to a new issuance of special drawing rights, advanced economies still need to be pressured to re-channel the hundreds of billions of special drawing rights sitting idle on their balance sheets into productive purposes.

    The 2021 allocation of special drawing rights amounted to US$650 billion in total. But only US$33 billion went to African countries due to the IMF’s unequal quota distribution. Meanwhile advanced economies with powerful currencies and no need for special drawing rights received the lion’s share.

    The African Development Bank has spearheaded one such proposal alongside the Inter-American Development Bank. Under this plan, countries with unused special drawing rights could re-channel them to the African Development Bank as hybrid capital, allowing the bank to lend around $4 for each $1 of special drawing rights it receives.

    The IMF approved the use of special drawing rights as hybrid capital for multilateral development banks in May. But it set an excessively low limit of 15 billion special drawing rights across all multilateral development banks.

    Even so, advanced economies have been slow to re-channel special drawing rights. The close to $100 billion that have been re-channelled – mostly to IMF trust funds – is meaningful.

    But it still falls short of what should have been re-channelled.

    In the long term, IMF governance reforms are needed to avoid a repeat of the inefficient distribution of special drawing rights.



    Read more:
    The World Bank and the IMF need to keep reforming to become fit for purpose

    As African countries rightly push to change shortcomings of the international financial architecture, new special drawing rights issuances should be at the centre of such a strategy. The IMF’s 2021 special drawing rights issuance showed the tool’s scale and importance. And special drawing rights re-channelling has had positive effects in easing debt burdens and freeing up financing to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

    With 2030 approaching and the window shrinking for climate action, global leaders should be using all the tools at their disposal, including special drawing rights, to build a more resilient future.

    Abebe Shimeles received funding from African Economic Research Consortium. He is affiliated with Institute of Labor Studies, IZA

    Kevin P. Gallagher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. IMF isn’t doing enough to support Africa: billions could be made available through special drawing rights – https://theconversation.com/imf-isnt-doing-enough-to-support-africa-billions-could-be-made-available-through-special-drawing-rights-241428

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to stay safe in cyberspace: 5 essential reads

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Natasha Joseph, Commissioning Editor

    We spend a lot of our time online, making us vulnerable to scammers. Media Lens King

    Whether we’re socialising, shopping, banking, studying or working, billions of people around the world spend hours each day online.

    This digital immersion has many benefits – and plenty of pitfalls, too. Here are just a few of the articles we’ve published by academics who specialise in various aspects of online safety. They’re packed full of cautionary tales and expert advice for keeping your digital spaces safe.

    Identifying online scams

    Think it’s only the digitally unsophisticated who get trapped by online scammers? Think again. Cybersecurity expert Thembekile Olivia Mayayise warns that even some of the most seasoned internet users she knows have fallen prey to phishing scams. They hand over sensitive information like login credentials and credit card details to “seasoned and cunning scammers who have honed their skills in the world of phishing over an extended period. Some work alone; others belong to syndicates.”



    Read more:
    Phishing scams: 7 safety tips from a cybersecurity expert

    ‘Academies’ for would-be cybercriminals

    Given that some people make a career out of running online scams, it shouldn’t be a surprise that there’s a market for training aspirant cyber crooks. Cybercrime scholars Suleman Lazarus and Mark Button shine a spotlight on west Africa’s “hustle kingdoms”, which are becoming common in Ghana and Nigeria. At these informal academies, people are taught to carry out digital scams. Sextortion – coercing victims into sharing sexually explicit content and threatening to make it public if the scammer is not paid – is one such strategy.



    Read more:
    Hustle academies: west Africa’s online scammers are training others in fraud and sextortion

    The psychology of scammers

    Luckily, researchers are developing new ways to understand the psychology of online scammers. Rennie Naidoo, a professor of information systems, explains how behavioural science and data science could join forces to combat cybercrime. While data science can be used to identify patterns that indicate potential cyber threats, he points out, it cannot recognise the human factors that drive cybercriminal behaviour. That’s where behavioural science comes in.



    Read more:
    Catching online scammers: our model combines data and behavioural science to map the psychological games cybercriminals play

    Truth and lies on the internet

    Disinformation and misinformation have become depressingly common in online spaces. Misinformation arises from people unwittingly spreading falsehoods; disinformation involves the deliberate, planned dissemination of lies. Fabrice Lollia’s experience as a disinformation expert means he’s well placed to offer handy tips for sorting lies from truth.



    Read more:
    Social media: Disinformation expert offers 3 safety tips in a time of fake news and dodgy influencers

    Keeping kids safe online

    It’s not just adults who are at risk online. Children are, in many respects, more vulnerable than their parents and caregivers even though they tend to have a better practical grasp of internet technology than previous generations. Lucy Jamieson, Heidi Matisonn and Wakithi Mabaso have researched various aspects of the ethics of new and emerging technologies, with a focus on how children are affected. The trio provide practical, simple advice for helping children navigate the risks, identify the ethical pitfalls and enjoy the benefits of social media platforms.



    Read more:
    Children and the internet: helping kids navigate this modern minefield

    – ref. How to stay safe in cyberspace: 5 essential reads – https://theconversation.com/how-to-stay-safe-in-cyberspace-5-essential-reads-240561

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Schools need a new approach in identifying special educational needs

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Penelope Hannant, Assistant Professor in Educational Inclusion, University of Birmingham

    Media_Photos/Shutterstock

    The assessment system for children and young people with additional needs in England is failing.

    More people than ever are on waiting lists for autism and specific learning difficulties. Some NHS trusts are closing waitlists for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Services are overloaded and past breaking point.

    Based on my expertise in neurodiversity and educational inclusion, I believe a different approach is needed to identify and support those with additional needs in schools.

    In the current education system, when there are concerns about a child’s progress, behaviour or wellbeing, schools follow a multi-step process to assess the child’s strengths and needs.

    This process involves trying school-based approaches such as literacy, mathematics and nurture groups, before seeking help from external specialists if this does not lead to improvement. Specialists may include educational and clinical psychologists, occupational therapists, specialist teachers and community paediatricians, among others.

    The right support

    Making accurate and timely referrals to these specialists is a complex task. A crucial role is played by the school’s special educational needs coordinators (Sencos)– qualified teachers who are responsible for the strategic development and provision of assistance for children with special educational needs and disabilities across a school.

    A Senco’s decisions are pivotal in determining which specialists to involve and when. Mistakes at this stage can have significant emotional and financial consequences. Misdirected referrals can strain school budgets and leave the child’s needs unmet.

    Despite this, current teacher training and Senco training does not adequately prepare teachers or Sencos for these complex and crucial analyses – and other responsibilities leave Sencos short of time.

    Introducing a more detailed assessment process within schools would help bridge the gap between education and specialist services. It would provide a comprehensive and holistic understanding of each child’s needs.

    I took this approach in my recent research based on tracking three cases from first referral to final conclusion. Rather than being referred directly to a specialist following the Senco’s observations, three children with different learning and development needs were referred instead to a developmental psychologist who made their own assessment of the child’s overall needs. This was unusual and occurred as part of my research.

    In each case, the developmental psychologist collected detailed background histories. They also conducted thorough observations and assessed cognition, achievement and behaviour using both standardised and “gold standard” diagnostic tools. The resulting reports offered a comprehensive overview of each child’s strengths and challenges, directing them to the most appropriate specialist.

    One assessment outcome confirmed the Senco’s initial concern of autism. One revealed additional co-occurring diagnoses of dyslexia and dyspraxia. The third identified ADHD, differing from the Senco’s initial judgment. Without the developmental psychologist’s input, some of these children’s needs would have been missed.

    Following the developmental psychologist’s thorough assessments and full profiles of each child, diagnoses were made immediately or within six months. Rapid targeted recommendations were provided in each case.

    Skilled practitioners in schools could help children get more appropriate support more quickly.
    Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock

    To address the inefficiencies of the current system, which leads to long waiting lists, I believe a skilled educational inclusion practitioner should become part of the school environment. This would be someone with expertise across various areas, and with strong connections to both educational and health services.

    This role would span a number of schools and does not necessarily require a developmental psychologist. Specialist teachers or Sencos could receive additional training in developmental psychology. By doing so, they could help promote greater understanding of neurodiversity in schools, where the foundations of relationships and learning begin.

    This educational inclusion practitioner would create a profile of the child’s strengths and difficulties. They would take on the role of diagnosing specific learning difficulties and identifying appropriate specialists for likely neurodivergence, and recommending interventions – thereby streamlining referrals and reducing guesswork.

    My research highlights the value of having a skilled practitioner in schools or trusts with expertise beyond that of what a Senco would bring. A skilled generalist who connects education, home and health services can foster better collaboration between health and education, and more thoroughly assess a child’s needs.

    The costs would be minimal compared with the significant benefits of avoiding late, missed or incorrect diagnoses in childhood. This, ultimately, would have a positive impact on children’s lives and futures.

    Penelope Hannant does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Schools need a new approach in identifying special educational needs – https://theconversation.com/schools-need-a-new-approach-in-identifying-special-educational-needs-235909

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Cuba’s power grid collapse reveals the depth of the country’s economic crisis

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nicolas Forsans, Professor of Management and Co-director of the Centre for Latin American & Caribbean Studies, University of Essex

    Cuba’s national grid collapsed four times in as many days last week, after the island’s largest power plant, Antonio Guiteras, failed. Millions of Cubans are still without power, with food rotting in powerless fridges and many lacking access to clean water.

    The Communist government closed schools on October 18 and ordered non-essential public sector activities to stop as work began on restoring the grid. But this was hindered by the arrival of Hurricane Oscar on Sunday night, which unleashed heavy rain and strong winds across eastern Cuba.

    Antonio Guiteras is now back online, and Cuban energy officials say electricity has been restored in most of the capital city, Havana, and some outlying areas. But they have warned against too much optimism.

    Cuba’s five thermoelectric power plants are obsolete and crumbling. And with oil products accounting for over 80% of power generation, the island depends on Venezuela for fuel shipments. But shipments have been cut in half this year as Venezuela struggles to ensure its own supply, forcing the Cuban government to seek far more expensive fuel on the spot market.

    The problem is that the Cuban government is running out of money as it grapples with the island’s worst economic crisis in 30 years, so power cuts of up to 20 hours a day are now common. Indeed, Lazaro Guerra, Cuba’s top electricity official, has said that Cubans “should not expect that when the system comes back online the blackouts will end”.

    How did Cuba get here?

    The roots of this crisis can be traced back to the cold war when Fidel Castro overthrew the US-backed government of Fulgencio Batista in January 1959. Convinced that the Cuban revolution was the most advanced among all far-left movements in Latin America, the former Soviet Union sided with the island and provided it with industrial goods and technical assistance.

    Cuba’s relations with the US worsened dramatically, and by July 1960 it had announced the expropriation of US industrial, banking and commercial operations on the island. Within a few months, the Cuban state had taken over all sugar mills, most industry and trade, half of the land, and every bank and communication network in the country.

    Retaliation swiftly followed. The US introduced its first embargo on all exports to Cuba in 1960, with exceptions for food and medicine. And this was followed in 1962 by a ban on all trade and financial transactions with the island. In 1964, the then US president, Lyndon B. Johnson, ordered a multilateral policy of “economic denial”, severely inhibited Cuba’s efforts to foster economic relations with other countries.

    The island would receive considerable amounts of aid from the Soviet bloc over the next 30 years. But this only deepened Havana’s dependence on a single export product: sugar, which was purchased at an inflated price as part of the aid programme. In return, Cuba purchased the crude oil it needed to operate its electricity plants.

    But, by the time the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, Cuba had failed to diversify its industrial structure and move away from its low productivity, monocultural economy. The country enjoyed limited self-sufficiency even in the production of food, with all means of production in the state’s hands.

    With the disappearance of its main oil supplier, Cuba was also forced to increase its domestic oil production and turn to Venezuela to meet its energy needs. The US embargo, which has been in place for 62 years, has cost Cuba an estimated US$130 billion (£100 billion), and has limited its access to basic goods and services.

    During Barack Obama’s second term as US president, there was a step change in relations between the two countries. Diplomatic relations resumed from 2014 and the embargo was eased, including restrictions on the ability of Cuban-Americans to travel back to the island and send remittances.

    In March 2016, Barack Obama became the first US president to visit Cuba since Calvin Coolidge in 1928.
    Kimberly Shavender / Shutterstock

    This kicked off a boom in private sector activities in Cuba and prompted reforms by the Cuban government aimed at restructuring the economy. However, the government was unwilling to reduce its grip on the centrally planned economy, and the reforms moved too slowly to produce any meaningful improvement.

    Then, in his final week in office in 2021, Donald Trump reimposed trade restrictions targeting tourism, remittances, and energy supplies, as well as adding Cuba to the list of “state sponsors of terrorism”. The move led to severe shortages and inflation, both of which were worsened by the pandemic.

    Logistical bottlenecks disrupted supplies and inflated shipping costs further. Heavily dependent on tourism, Cuba suffered a severe depletion of its foreign currency reserves.

    Patience is running out

    The economic situation has continued to decline. Export earnings in 2023 were still US$3 billion short of their pre-pandemic level, and Cuba’s economic output is not expected to return to its level before the pandemic until after 2025.

    Half a million people – most of whom were young – left the country for the US between 2021 and 2022. And thousands more have made their way to Brazil, Russia, Uruguay and elsewhere in an exodus that is unprecedented in the history of the island.

    The future outlook looks bleak, yet the government is keen to quash dissent. Speaking during the latest blackouts, Cuba’s current president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, said: “We will not accept or allow anyone to act by provoking acts of vandalism, and much less disturbing the civil tranquillity of our people … And that is a principle of our revolution.”

    Díaz-Canel was reelected by lawmakers in April 2023 for a second and final term. But the weak state of Cuba’s economy will pose significant challenges for his government, testing its strength and the legitimacy of its hold on power.

    Cuba’s relations with the US are also likely to remain strained. In an attempt to curb Cuba’s outreach to Russia and China for predominantly economic assistance, the US president, Joe Biden, has loosened some sanctions. But this could all change with a Republican victory in the upcoming US election.

    Nicolas Forsans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Cuba’s power grid collapse reveals the depth of the country’s economic crisis – https://theconversation.com/cubas-power-grid-collapse-reveals-the-depth-of-the-countrys-economic-crisis-241819

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Immunotherapy was meant to defeat cancer – what happened to the great promise?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Fisher, Associate Professor, UCL

    In 1893, the American Journal of the Medical Sciences reported on ten patients whose large and hitherto incurable cancers had been injected with bacteria taken from skin infections. In every case, striking improvement was seen, marking the birth of “cancer immunotherapy” – using the power of the immune system to attack cancer.

    The immune system is the body’s most powerful weapon against cancer and infection. For a cancer cell, surviving long enough to divide and eventually form a lump or tumour is the result of a brutal Darwinian process. To reach this point, cancer must adapt, hiding from immune detection and co-opting patients’ immune machinery to betray its original programming and instead protect the cancer.

    Immunotherapy – which really started to take off just over a decade ago – is an attempt to artificially tip the balance back in favour of tumour elimination. Sometimes this can be done by taking off the brakes from immune cells already in the cancer.

    This works because cancers have fooled the body by using its own natural safety switches, or “checkpoints”, that usually keep our immune systems under control. Blocking these switches using specially chosen antibodies – biological drugs – turns the immune response back on. This approach is called “immune checkpoint blockade”.

    Mutations are alterations in genetic code that can lead to cancer. All cancers fall on a spectrum, depending on how many mutations the cells have. Typically, cancers caused by exposure to toxic or harmful things have higher numbers of mutations than those which are not – examples include melanoma, a type of skin cancer, and some types of colon cancer.

    From the perspective of the immune system, the more mutations there are, the “hotter” the cancer is. This may make a cancer more aggressive, but it also increases the chances that the immune system will have detected it and mounted a response. This is why immune checkpoint blockade therapy works well for these high-mutation cancers, but less well for others.

    The other type of immunotherapy does not rely on the natural activity of the immune system. This approach uses immune machinery that is designed in a laboratory, a bit like biological Lego. Scientists take pieces of existing immune mechanisms and combine them to make new ones, which enhance the way the body’s defence system responds.

    When put into the patient’s T-cells (a type of immune cell that usually fights viruses), this machinery allows them to attack and kill cancer. Called cell therapy, this approach has cured patients with previously incurable leukaemia.

    The new machinery, called a “chimeric antigen receptor” or “Car”, transforms a diverse T-cell population into Car-T, where the engineered cells all respond to the same cancer-associated marker.

    Victims of their own success

    Both types of immunotherapy have been victims of their own success. This has led to the replication of existing technology rather than riskier diversification. Of 11 immune checkpoint blockade treatments approved by American regulators, nine target the same immune interaction. And of the Car-T cell treatments approved in the US since their debut in 2017, all target one of two markers found exclusively on blood cancers.

    Substantial effort has been spent on iterative developments of the existing Car concept. Examples include changing the target or tuning the signals that stimulate the T-cells.

    This has yielded important advances, but the saturation of both academic and commercial research space has contributed to a diminishing appetite for funding more cell therapy programmes.

    Success against solid cancers has also been extremely low. The Darwinian adaptiveness shown by cancer creates a suppressive environment in a cancer lump, where it is hard for Car-T to work properly. So, reliance on a single technology has not delivered on its initial promise.

    Given that Car-T costs around £282,000 per patient in the UK, and the patient’s disease often worsens in the two-to-three weeks it takes to manufacture them, confidence is waning.

    This phenomenon is not new. In the 1950s, confidence in chemotherapy was low because single drugs failed to produce lasting cures. But by the 1960s, combination chemotherapy began to deliver durable patient benefit, and multi-drug regimens now form a mainstay of cancer therapy.

    Immunotherapies that use combination approaches are now emerging. Recent research from University College London demonstrated how engineered immune cells called gamma-delta T-cells could act as delivery vehicles for anti-cancer antibodies.

    In this approach, not only did the engineered cells kill cancer in mice, they also empowered other cells to join the fight. Also, gamma-delta T-cells can be safely taken from a healthy donor and given to several patients.

    So there is hope.

    Cell therapies that can be made beforehand from healthy donor cells and then stored, ready to use, are receiving more interest. For example, the number of trials using gamma delta T-cells doubled between 2022 and 2023, the fastest-growing area of activity.

    This could remove the waiting time for treatment manufacture, reducing the chance of disease worsening in the interim. A move away from reliance on single-axis immune interventions, such as immune checkpoint blockade or Car-T in isolation, should yield better outcomes.

    The immune system is highly complex. Our attempts to manipulate it must live up to this complexity if we are to deliver lasting patient benefit.

    Jonathan Fisher works for University College London and is an inventor on patents pertaining to gamma-delta T cell immunotherapy. In the past 5 years he has received research funding from UKRI, the Academy of Medical Sciences, Cancer Research UK, CCLG, and the UCL Technology Fund.

    – ref. Immunotherapy was meant to defeat cancer – what happened to the great promise? – https://theconversation.com/immunotherapy-was-meant-to-defeat-cancer-what-happened-to-the-great-promise-241232

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Drug-related deaths have risen by record numbers in England and Wales – latest data

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ian Hamilton, Honorary Fellow, Department of Health Sciences, University of York

    Cocaine is the second most-used drug in England. PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/ Shutterstock

    Deaths from drug use in England and Wales have risen by 11%, according to the latest annual data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). In 2023, there were 5,448 fatalities (93 deaths per million people) – the highest number of drug-related deaths since records began in 1993.

    Over half these deaths involved opiates, such as heroin and morphine. The highest rate of deaths from opiate misuse was among those aged between 40 and 49 years old.

    It’s unknown how many opiate deaths last year were due to synthetic opiates, such as nitazenes. Delays in when the data on synthetic opiate deaths was published meant it could not be included in this latest report. But while these drugs remain of serious concern, and related deaths may be being under-counted, heroin remains the opiate associated with most harm.

    Those born in the 1970s (referred to as “generation X”) are more likely to die from drug misuse than any other age group. It’s not entirely clear why drug deaths are higher in this age group, but it could be due to people beginning to develop a number of physical and mental health problems in their forties that make them more vulnerable to a fatal overdose. For example, breathing problems could make someone more vulnerable to an opiate overdose, as these drugs have a depressant effect on the respiratory system.

    Men of any age outnumber women two-to-one in deaths from drug misuse – a finding which has been true since records began. Men are more likely to use drugs than women, which may account for the difference in fatalities.

    There are also stark regional differences in drug-related deaths. For example, the north-east of England continues to have much higher rates of deaths from drug misuse, compared with other parts of the country.

    There were 174.3 drug-related deaths per million people in the north-east, compared with 58.1 drug-related deaths per million people in London. The rate of drug-poisoning deaths reported in the north-east were the highest they have been for the past 11 years. In the main, these deaths will have been due to an instant fatal overdose, while other deaths will have been cumulative.

    The stark regional differences in all drug-related deaths align with socioeconomic factors, such as poverty and deprivation. There’s a strong link between socioeconomic deprivation and problematic drug use.

    As the popularity of cocaine has increased over the past decade – it is now the second-most used drug in England after cannabis – so too have fatalities. Although it’s not possible to distinguish from the data whether these fatalities were from crack or powder cocaine, the ONS recorded the 12th consecutive rise in deaths due to cocaine, with such deaths rising almost 31% year-on-year. This is a large rise, even in the context of increasing drug-related deaths over the past 20 years.

    One possible explanation for this sharp increase could be that the purity of cocaine has been increasing without the cost going up. This makes cocaine not only more potent, but more affordable to more people than it was. Yet despite high levels of cocaine use throughout England, there have been no coordinated prevention and harm reduction campaigns. Treatments also remain underdeveloped compared with other drugs.

    Many of the drug deaths deaths published in the ONS’s report involved multiple substances, including alcohol. So we can’t be certain in many cases which drug was the cause of a death.

    And some of these deaths occurred in people who had other physical health problems – such as respiratory problems, heart issues and liver disease. These health problems are exacerbated by use of drugs such as heroin and cocaine. This again makes it hard to attribute some deaths entirely to drug use.

    What can be done?

    The UK government is funding research to explore whether artificial intelligence could help reduce drug overdoses. Some of the projects that have received funding involve using wearable devices that would alert emergency services if signs of an overdose are detected.

    Existing interventions could also be more widely adopted. Naloxone, a medication that can reverse the effects of opiates, should be made more widely available. While some emergency services carry Naloxone, there’s scope to broaden this so those most at risk have timely access to this life-saving medication.

    Making Naloxone more accessible could save lives.
    Elena Berd/ Shutterstock

    There’s also a pressing need to change how health services are provided to people struggling with drug misuse – and the kind of services they can access. For example, people that use heroin daily can find it difficult to keep appointments with health services. Tailoring when and where health support is provided could help engage this group of people.

    Stigma around drug use can also prevent people seeking help – or when they do, they can feel judged by others. But there are ways of providing these necessary services that would make it easier for people who are struggling to get the help they need without judgment.

    Improving the knowledge and skills of staff in specialist drug treatment services about physical health problems would be one positive step. Being able to directly intervene by assessing and treating cardiac and respiratory issues, for instance, would eliminate the need for drug users to attend multiple appointments in different locations. This would make them more likely to continue accessing services.

    The Labour government has made it clear that it will be difficult to ensure public services receive all the resources they need. Yet every year, we are seeing record levels of drug-related deaths across the UK.

    It’s clear that what is currently being done is not enough. More money needs to be invested in specialist drug treatment services, both to save lives and improve the quality of life for all those who face problems with drugs. This will provide economic savings in the long term, and reduce the suffering that too many families experience.

    Harry Sumnall receives funding from public grant awarding bodies for alcohol and other drugs research, and fees from (international) not-for-profit organisations and government departments for consultation work. He is an unpaid member of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Mind Foundation, the Scientific Advisory Board of the International Society of Substance Use Professionals, an unpaid advisor to the UK Drug Education Forum, and an unpaid co-opted member of the UK Government Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs (ACMD) Working Groups.

    Ian Hamilton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Drug-related deaths have risen by record numbers in England and Wales – latest data – https://theconversation.com/drug-related-deaths-have-risen-by-record-numbers-in-england-and-wales-latest-data-241180

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What 12 ancient skeletons discovered in a mysterious tomb in Petra could tell us about the ancient city

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Claire Isabella Gilmour, PhD Candidate, Anthropology and Archaeology, University of Bristol

    Twelve skeletons have been found in a large, 2,000-year-old tomb directly in front of the Khazneh (“Treasury”) in the city of Petra in Jordan. Alongside them, excavators have discovered grave goods made of pottery, bronze, iron and ceramics. There is much excitement among archaeologists because of what the rare opportunity to investigate this site might tell us about Petra’s ancient people, the Nabataeans, and their culture.

    One of the most headline-grabbing discoveries has been dubbed a “holy grail” in many reports, suggesting that the vessel is similar to the fictional cup from Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, also discovered at the Khazneh. In fact, it’s a humble jug, not a cup offering the drinker eternal life.

    The similarities between the vessels aren’t a case of art imitating life, but the result of painstaking research into Nabataean pottery carried out by Deborah Fine, who was the director of archives at Lucasfilm Ltd.

    Nabataean pottery is very fine – often only 1.5mm thick – and best suited to ceremonial purposes or local use than the thicker, more robust contemporary Roman wares which could travel better. Nabataean pottery is also often painted with images such as flowers, figures and geometric motifs. These styles reflect Petra’s status as an important trading point, and the Nabataeans’ skill in creation and invention.

    We do not know anything yet about the identities of those buried, although their interment in separate sarcophagi and their placement at the Khazneh suggest high status.

    The work on analysing and interpreting these new finds is only beginning. The pottery, sediments, and skeletal material will hopefully narrow down construction dates for the site. Their discovery confirms that there is more to be found at the Khazneh.

    The history of Petra

    Petra is a Unesco World Heritage Site, and millions of people visit it each year. The city has been inhabited since 7000BC, but it really flourished in the 1st century AD.

    Home to the Nabataeans (a nomadic Arab group who called it Raqmu) for around 300 years, Petra was a hub of commercial activity and a key location for trade route, connecting Egypt, the Mediterranean and the Arabian Peninsula. The site’s many still-existing structures display this unique blending of cultures.

    The decline of the city began after the Romans took it over in AD106. Its decreasing importance followed the opening of sea routes and a devastating earthquake in the 4th century, which destroyed many buildings and led to the city eventually being abandoned.

    Petra’s desert location had allowed the Nabataeans to develop an impressive and ingenious water management infrastructure to master the arid landscape. But this also meant that after the city fell into disuse, it was effectively lost. Enclosed within moutain passages and entered via a natural cleft in the rock, it was completely unknown to the west until 1812, when it was rediscovered by the Swiss geographer Johann Ludwig Burckhardt.

    The Khazneh, where these burials were discovered, is the most recognisable part of the city. It is cut from the surrounding red sandstone and displays an intriguing fusion of eastern and Hellenistic architectural features. This decorated structure is a facade for the rock-cut space behind it, thought to have been built during the reign of Nabataean king Aretas IV Philopatris circa AD40, perhaps as a tomb.

    According to myth, the front of the decorated urn over the entrance was magically created by the pharaoh for all the gold of Egypt, during his escape when Moses parted the Red Sea. It bears the marks of bullets as people have tried over the centuries to reveal the treasure.

    Surveys and excavations have been conducted at Petra since the turn of the 20th century. The current US-Jordan expedition, led by Pearce Paul Creasman, is aiming to uncover further secrets of the city. One of the enduring mysteries is the true purpose of the Khazneh – these burials could help answer that question, while revising our understanding of this cosmopolitan ancient city.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Claire Isabella Gilmour does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What 12 ancient skeletons discovered in a mysterious tomb in Petra could tell us about the ancient city – https://theconversation.com/what-12-ancient-skeletons-discovered-in-a-mysterious-tomb-in-petra-could-tell-us-about-the-ancient-city-241850

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US election: why more men and fewer white women say they will vote for Trump

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Natasha Lindstaedt, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex

    Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris by 11 percentage points with male voters, according to a recent New York Times poll. Trump is carving out a definitive advantage with US men.

    While Trump’s core support comes from white men, he has also made notable gains with Hispanic-American and African-American men. Though Trump has repeatedly denigrated Hispanics and regularly uses anti-immigrant rhetoric, this has not been a deal breaker for the Latino community. Surveys have shown that around 50% of Hispanic men think that Trump is “tough” enough to be president.

    Trump helped ramp up disinformation around Barack Obama’s qualification to run as president by claiming that he had concerns about Obama’s birth certificate. Trump also defended white supremacists marching in Charlottesville, Virginia, but these moves have not deterred some young African American men from supporting him. About one in four African American men under the age of 50 plan to vote for Trump, polls suggest.

    Why young men like Trump

    A lot of Trump’s support comes from young men, in particular. Pollsters noted that when President Joe Biden was still in the race, he had lost one particular category of Democrats – people who liked podcaster Joe Rogan – a demographic that is mostly young men aged 18-29.

    Harris is underperforming compared with Joe Biden in 2020, and this is almost entirely due to losing support with young men. The same New York Times poll showed that Trump leads Harris among young men by 58% to 37%, more or less the same as Biden before he dropped out of the race.

    One of the reasons why some men are flocking to Trump is that young American men have moved more to the right in general.

    In 2024, young men are more likely to be Republican and more likely to see themselves as conservative than in the past, while the most progressive group in US history are young women. In fact, the gap between young men and young women and the politics they believe in has almost doubled in the past 25 years.

    Young men may be drawn to Trump because he pushes against societal pressure that men need to be apologetic for being themselves. Almost two-thirds of American men believe that men should be represented and valued more in society, according to a YouGov study.

    J.D. Vance and his childless cat ladies comment.

    Another issue may be that some men face tremendous pressure to live up to certain expectations. Past research argued that most men who found Trump appealing were finding it difficult to live up to social standards of masculinity, referred to as a fragile masculinity hypothesis.

    This connection was not associated with male support for Mitt Romney in 2012 or support for John McCain in 2008, but did correlate with support for Trump in 2016 and for Republicans in the midterm elections.

    Trump has bolstered his macho image by increasingly acting on the campaign trail as if he is speaking to a bunch of guys in a locker room. He has become more profane and vulgar, even talking about the size of pro golfer Arnold Palmer’s penis in a bizarre campaign moment.

    Trump also makes no attempt to be politically correct in the post-MeToo era, even complaining that noted sexual offender Harvey Weinstein got a raw deal .

    Though many women were repelled by Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance’s past videos where he claimed Washington was run by childless cat ladies, it did little to turn off Trump’s supporters.

    For some men, these ideas play into their fears about women becoming too powerful, and that men are facing a major threat to their social status. Some of these men that Vance has been trying to appeal to are Christian extremists who would like to overturn the 19th amendment (which gave US women the right to vote), and see women return to roles as homemakers.

    Trump also taps into the fears that some men may have about the threats posed to them by women’s advancement. One-third of men who support Trump believe that women have made gains at men’s expense, rising to 40% for men under 50 who support Trump, according to Pew Research from 2024.

    A survey from the Survey Center on American Life demonstrated that 19% of men say that women have it easier than men do, but it is men aged 18-29 who are twice as likely as men over the age of 64 to believe that this is the case.

    Indeed, some of the struggles young American men face are not just imagined. A Pew Research survey from 2023 found that young men in the US were less likely than in years gone by to be financially independent or have a full-time job by the age of 25.

    Young men are also less likely than young women to be enrolled in university, and have higher rates of suicide.

    Why do most women not like Trump?

    While Trump is doing well with some men, he has been haemorrhaging support from women. In particular, women have been mobilised by Trump and Vance’s misogynistic rhetoric, and by the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v Wade, which had given American women the right to an abortion.

    Support for reproductive rights does not differ much by gender with about 61% of men in support, compared to 64% of women, but the issue is more salient for women than men.

    Sensing the issue of abortion could be a problem for Trump with female voters, he tried to connect with women claiming that he would be their “protector” and that he was the “father of IVF”.

    But so far these strange statements, and Trump’s boorish comments may be turning off female voters – even white women – who were a core part of Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020. Trump only leads with white women by one percentage point in 2024, compared to seven points in 2020.

    In a historic election that has been defined by a notable gender gap, the two candidates’ communication styles could not be more different. However, it remains to be seen which candidate’s gender advantage will propel them to victory.

    Natasha Lindstaedt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. US election: why more men and fewer white women say they will vote for Trump – https://theconversation.com/us-election-why-more-men-and-fewer-white-women-say-they-will-vote-for-trump-241721

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: DIY musicians: how digital ‘bedroom pop’ has transformed the music industry

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Paul G. Oliver, Lecturer in Digital Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Edinburgh Napier University

    The ever-advancing technologies of our digital age have transformed many industries, including – and perhaps especially – music. One of the most significant shifts has been the rise of DIY artists. These independent musicians take on roles traditionally held by record labels and managers, such as producing, recording, promoting and distributing their music.

    The ubiquitous nature of digital platforms has enabled artists to reach their audiences more directly. According to a study by MIDiA Research, independent artists generated over US$1.2 billion (£900 million) in 2020, accounting for 5.1% of the global recorded music market, reflecting how digital transformations continue to reshape the music industry.

    The COVID pandemic further accelerated this process, forcing artists to find new ways to connect with their audiences when live performances were no longer possible. Many independent musicians turned to digital platforms as crucial tools to engage with their fans and generate income.

    Platforms such as TikTok, Twitch, Instagram Live, YouTube, Patreon and Bandcamp saw a surge in usage as artists adapted to the new reality, showcasing their music to a global audience and attracting new fans who might have never discovered them otherwise. These platforms became lifelines for visibility and growth when traditional avenues were shut down.

    As a lecturer in digital innovation and entrepreneurship, my work looks at the relationship between digital transformation and DIY culture in the music industry and how it is changing the game for fledgling musicians and the business end of music too.

    DIY and artistic integrity

    The DIY ethos, rooted in independence and resistance to mainstream commercialisation, has evolved very successfully in the digital domain. Historically associated underground cultures, this ethos emphasises creativity, self-management and sustainability.

    DIY artists are often inspired by the punk movement, which championed autonomy and a do-it-yourself approach to music production and distribution. This ethos is now applied digitally, where artists use online platforms to stay independent while reaching a global audience, that in more analogue times would just not have been possible.

    One of the significant challenges DIY artists face is balancing artistic integrity with the ability to make a living. While digital platforms offer unprecedented opportunities for exposure and direct-to-fan (D2F) engagement, they also introduce new pressures and dependencies.

    For example, the algorithms that govern visibility on platforms like YouTube and Spotify can also be unpredictable, often favouring more commercial content over niche or experimental works, forcing artists to compromise their creative vision to achieve financial viability.

    While DIY artists are known for their self-sufficiency, some commercial artists have also adopted elements of the DIY approach, particularly in their use of digital platforms to bypass traditional industry structures.

    Being discovered and making money

    There are numerous success stories of DIY artists who have used digital platforms to build their careers commercially. For example, the British singer-songwriter Arlo Parks has gained significant recognition by blending personal experiences with broader social themes.

    Her success is a testament to the power of authenticity and the ability to connect with a diverse audience through digital platforms. Similarly, artists like Billie Eilish and (her brother) Finneas have shown how bedroom pop can achieve mainstream success, showing the potential of DIY approaches in the digital age.

    Social media platforms play a vital role in the success of DIY artists by helping audiences discover new talent. Platforms like Instagram and TikTok are particularly effective for reaching younger audiences and creating viral content. TikTok, for example, has over 1 billion active users worldwide, and its algorithm can propel a song to viral status overnight – significantly boosting an artist’s visibility and reach.

    Subscription platforms like Patreon, Bandcamp and YouTube enable artists to make money from their work directly. These platforms allow fans to financially support their favourite artists, offering exclusive content, early access to new releases and other perks in exchange for a subscription fee. This D2F model helps artists generate a steady income, enabling them to focus more on their creative endeavours while maintaining a direct connection with their audience.

    Despite the vast opportunities digital platforms create, DIY artists face big challenges, for example, in terms of financial instability. A recent report by Help Musicians revealed that 98% of musicians are worried about rising costs in the UK. An inability to make a proper living has led many artists to seek alternative income sources, such as crowdfunding and exclusive content through subscription services like Patreon.

    However, the pressure to maintain a consistent online presence can also affect mental health – as One Direction’s Liam Payne spoke about in the months before his death – making it essential for artists to balance D2F engagement and personal wellbeing.

    DIY artists like Clairo, who rose to fame through her self-produced online content, have also spoken of her struggles with the pressures of maintaining a public persona and the toll it can take on mental health.

    DIY communities operating within the digital domain thrive on mutual support and collaboration because artists support each other with production, promotion and distribution. This sense of community is crucial for maintaining the DIY ethos and managing the complexities of the digital domain.

    The future of music looks promising, with this intersection between DIY culture, creativity and digital platforms continuing to evolve and offer new opportunities for artists. The DIY music market grew by 7.6% between 2021 and 2024.

    However, for this growth to continue, these platforms must remain artist-friendly and provide fair compensation for creators. Independent musicians can thrive in the digital domain by embracing the DIY ethos and using digital platforms with the potential for global reach, D2F engagement, and diversified income streams, providing a robust foundation for sustainable careers.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Paul G. Oliver does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. DIY musicians: how digital ‘bedroom pop’ has transformed the music industry – https://theconversation.com/diy-musicians-how-digital-bedroom-pop-has-transformed-the-music-industry-233364

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Bank of Canada’s latest interest rate cut: Monetary policy is not enough to address economic issues on its own

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Sorin Rizeanu, Assistant Professor, Gustavson School of Business, University of Victoria

    The Canadian and American economies are deeply intertwined. With the United States Federal Reserve cautious amid mixed signals from the labour market and rising inflation worries, the Bank of Canada has just lowered its key interest rate to 3.75 per cent – cutting it by half a percentage point.

    Strong U.S. job growth and cooling inflation could result in a smaller Fed rate cut compared to its previous cut and to Canada’s recent cut. It could also pause the rate entirely, which may change economic conditions in the U.S. and Canada in the months to come. Upcoming U.S. elections complicate the problem further.

    In Canada, cooling inflation, slowing manufacturing sales and more cautious consumer spending opens the door to another half percentage point rate cut by the end of the year.

    But does the Bank of Canada have the ability to offset shifts in U.S. monetary policies through its own monetary instruments? In fact, how much room does it have to diverge from U.S. policy at all?

    Monetary conditions are transmitted from the world’s biggest financial centres to the rest of the world through gross credit flows and leverage. Any policy differences between Canada and the U.S. immediately impact Canada, including spillover effects on the loonie exchange rates and other widespread economical and social effects.

    Canada’s double trilemmas

    Canada’s key challenges include economic growth as a potential recession looms, taming inflation, housing, managing interest rates while private and public debt is sky-high and stabilizing Canada’s commodity-linked currency in an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment. Failing to address these challenges could lead to severe systemic imbalances.

    A country cannot have an independent monetary policy, stable exchange rate and free capital flows simultaneously. It must choose one side of this triangle and give up the opposite corner.
    (Sorin Rizeanu), CC BY-ND

    The Bank of Canada has good reasons to cut the interest rate back to 2.5 to 3.5 per cent, but this could have a significant impact on the loonie.

    Canada is facing two sets of trilemmas: a monetary one for the central bank and a fiscal one for the government. On the monetary side, stable exchange rates, independent monetary policy and financial market openness are three objectives that cannot all be achieved simultaneously. European countries have sacrificed monetary independence in exchange for a strong euro and financial openness.

    It’s impossible for policymakers to pursue all three choices at the same time. For instance, a country spending more without raising taxes has to increase public debt and deficit.
    (Sorin Rizeanu), CC BY-ND

    Canada, in contrast, has opted for free capital mobility and independent monetary policy at the expense of exchange rate stability. This allows the loonie to be determined by market forces, giving the central bank the ability to adjust interest rates while capital moves freely across the border.

    On the fiscal side, the government is grappling with climate change, immigration and wealth inequality. However, there is also strong public resistance to higher taxes, and public debt and deficits are currently at alarming levels.

    If the central banks are at odds

    If the Bank of Canada were to cut interest rates while the Fed doesn’t, the loonie would likely depreciate sharply, forcing a response. Such a divergence happened in June 2024, with the Fed following with a 0.5 per cent cut only in September.

    On such short-term deviations, sterilization is typically implemented to dampen the depreciation of the loonie by acquiring Canadian dollars and selling reserves.

    If the central banks were to remain at odds in the longer term, a decrease in money supply as investors flee would likely cause a decrease in domestic bank lending, which is already under pressure from public and private debt and increased default rates.

    This could decrease longer term interest rates and put additional pressure on the economy through the capital account. If investors believe the central bank is merely delaying the inevitable depreciation of its currency, it could also reinforce carry trade dynamics — an investment strategy where money is borrowed at a low cost in one currency to earn higher returns from investments in another currency.

    The bond market would also react, with notable effects in key economic sectors and asset valuation. Long-term interest rates tend to align more across countries than short-term rates, especially if global factors are influencing real rates or if investors are seeking safer assets.

    While the Bank of Canada can set its policy rate independently of the Fed’s rate, it has less control over the long-term. Long-term rates are tied to exchange rates and reflect expectations for future short-term rates and risk factors. Mortgage rates and corporate borrowing rates would be affected as well.

    Monetary policy can’t be the only answer

    The Bank of Canada’s mandate is to “keep inflation low, stable and predictable.” While this can be fulfilled through rate cuts, diverging from U.S. policy will have widespread effects on the Canadian economy. These impacts will be uneven, with indebted investors and banks likely benefiting while the working class may bear the brunt.

    The Bank of Canada focuses on providing liquidity to the financial sector, often with little regulation or oversight. However, this approach tends to overlook challenges faced by the working class. In 2022, for instance, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem advised against employers increasing wages to match inflation over concern that a wage-price spiral would occur.

    Even if the central bank wanted to address these issues, it’s limited by the ability to manage multiple outputs with just one instrument. As a result, the central bank should report not only on inflation, but also on the overall trade-offs of rate cuts.

    The Bank of Canada has a vested interest in tampering the effects of a new rate cut, especially since it could trigger a “capital famine” in the long-term and weaken the Canadian dollar. In the short-term, divergences from the U.S. will likely be manageable, but in the longer term, currency depreciation may be unavoidable to keep the economy afloat.

    Monetary policy is vital, but it’s merely the first line of defence against inflation. To truly address Canada’s economic issues, both monetary and fiscal policies need to work together in harmony, with a broader public discussion that goes beyond inflation.

    Sorin Rizeanu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Bank of Canada’s latest interest rate cut: Monetary policy is not enough to address economic issues on its own – https://theconversation.com/bank-of-canadas-latest-interest-rate-cut-monetary-policy-is-not-enough-to-address-economic-issues-on-its-own-238396

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Harris and Trump differ widely on gun rights, death penalty and other civil liberties questions

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Donovan A. Watts, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Auburn University

    The Bill of Rights secures key liberties for U.S. citizens against the government’s power. U.S. Congress via Wikimedia Commons

    As the election nears, voters are considering the two leading presidential candidates’ records on a wide range of issues, including civil liberties – a broad term used to describe the constitutionally protected freedoms that protect citizens from excessive government power. These key freedoms are contained in the Bill of Rights, the first 10 amendments to the U.S. Constitution. For example, the protection for free speech under the First Amendment and the right to bear arms under the Second Amendment define people’s abilities to criticize the government and own weapons for private use.

    In turn, as a scholar of American politics, I have seen that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have very different records on these crucial American rights.

    First Amendment freedoms of speech and press

    As California’s attorney general, Harris indirectly found herself in a battle with the First Amendment. For many years, state law required nonprofit organizations registered in California to report names and addresses of donors of amounts over US$5,000 in a single year. In 2010, the year before Harris became attorney general, her predecessor began actually enforcing that law, which Harris continued when she took office in 2011. In 2014, several conservative groups sued Harris, saying her office’s enforcement of the law was violating their First Amendment right to give money anonymously.

    Part of Harris’ job was to oversee the defense of the law in court, arguing that soliciting donor names did not bar donor disclosure requirements like California’s. The case lasted beyond her term as California’s top law enforcement officer: The U.S. Supreme Court declared parts of the law unconstitutional in 2021, after Harris had become vice president.

    While he was president, Trump’s First Amendment record was more about the media than free speech. He repeatedly declared the press “the enemy of the people.” He has suggested that media outlets who provide coverage he dislikes lose their broadcasting licenses and has pressed to change laws about libel in ways that would make it easier for public figures to file suit against unfavorable coverage.

    As California’s attorney general, Kamala Harris worked to reduce gun violence in the state.
    Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

    Second Amendment right to bear arms

    Dating back to her tenure as a district attorney in San Francisco and as California’s attorney general, Harris has been an advocate for stricter gun control laws. However, she is not seeking to take away Americans’ guns – and recently revealed that she herself is a gun owner.

    When serving as district attorney in San Francisco, Harris worked with the city’s mayor at the time, Gavin Newsom, to develop some of the strictest local gun regulations in the country. In December 2004, Proposition H was placed on the ballot and passed by majority vote in November 2005. Proposition H banned possessing a handgun within San Francisco, with a few exceptions, and banned purchasing, possession, distribution and manufacturing of all firearms in the city. However, the proposition was overruled by the San Francisco Superior Court, which said gun ownership should be regulated at the state level.

    And in 2008, as the U.S. Supreme Court was preparing to hear a key gun control case, Harris led 18 elected prosecutors who urged the justices that a broad right to gun ownership could endanger local and state firearm laws. In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court held that the Second Amendment guarantees an individual the right to possess firearms.

    However, the Supreme Court’s ruling did not stop Harris in her continued fight for gun regulation. She pushed for additional funding to confiscate guns from thousands of people whom California law said were banned from having them. Later as a U.S. senator from 2017 to 2021, Harris continued to advocate for gun regulation by sponsoring bills that would have enacted universal background checks and ban assault rifles.

    During Harris’ term as vice president, she oversaw the White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention, which seeks to focus government attention on a wide range of policies to reduce gun violence, including restrictions on firearms, increased mental health services and new powers for prosecutors to use against people who use firearms when committing a crime.

    In 2019, while he was president, Donald Trump spoke to a National Rifle Association meeting and expressed support for the organization.
    AP Photo/Michael Conroy

    Trump’s record on firearms, meanwhile, has been mixed. As president, he signed legislation in 2017 that softened background check requirements for gun buyers with particular mental illness diagnoses. And during the COVID-19 pandemic, he objected to the fact that many local orders to close businesses to protect public health included shutting gun shops.

    Yet in 2018, he also moved to ban bump stocks – a device attached to a semiautomatic firearm that enables it to fire more rapidly. His ban was overturned by the Supreme Court in June 2024.

    Trump also supported and signed the Fix NICS Act, a bipartisan law that strengthened reporting to the federal gun background checks system by requiring federal agencies to submit semiannual certification reports to the attorney general on their compliance with recordkeeping and transmission requirements.

    Eighth Amendment protections against ‘cruel and unusual punishments’

    The Eighth Amendment’s protection against “cruel and unusual punishments” has often been used by the Supreme Court to evaluate uses of the death penalty.

    Harris has consistently pledged to refuse to seek the death penalty in criminal cases, noting a multitude of systemic flaws that result in its disproportional application based on defendants’ race and income. She also noted the cost to taxpayers of keeping prisoners on death row. Harris’ position was tested just months into her service as district attorney when a police officer was shot and killed in the line of duty in 2004. Harris declined to seek the death penalty for the shooter, who was convicted of murder and is serving a life sentence without the possibility of parole.

    While attorney general of California, however, she defended in court the state’s power to impose the death penalty. But when, in March 2024, the state’s governor – Newsom – declared a halt to executions, sparing all 737 people on California’s death row, Harris praised the action.

    Trump’s record on capital punishment dates back long before his political career. In 1989, he took out full-page newspaper ads calling for the return of the death penalty in New York. He specifically wanted it to be applied to the Central Park Five, five young Black and Hispanic men who were wrongly accused of raping and beating a woman. They pleaded not guilty but served years in prison before being exonerated by DNA evidence and the actual criminal’s confession.

    During his term as president, Trump resumed federal executions after a 17-year hiatus, executing 13 people in the last six months of his presidency, the last of which was just four days before his term ended.

    All in all, as voters decide who to vote for in the upcoming election, analyzing both candidates’ record on civil liberties is a good step in making an informed decision.

    Donovan A. Watts does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Harris and Trump differ widely on gun rights, death penalty and other civil liberties questions – https://theconversation.com/harris-and-trump-differ-widely-on-gun-rights-death-penalty-and-other-civil-liberties-questions-240762

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Netflix’s Territory is a Succession-like drama packed with family rivalry and betrayal, set in Australia’s outback

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexa Scarlata, Research Fellow, Media & Communication, RMIT University

    Netflix

    The Australian commissioning team at Netflix has had a pretty good run over the past 12 months. In January, the adaptation of Trent Dalton’s novel Boy Swallows Universe proved to be the most successful Australian-made show to that point, scoring 7.6 million views globally in its first two weeks.

    A few months later, the second season of the streamer’s Heartbreak High reboot debuted at number one in Australia, and stayed on the Global Top 10 English TV Series list for three consecutive weeks.

    Will Netflix’s latest Australian series – one without any ties to a familiar book or TV show – be as well received? Luckily for the streamer, its new six-part outback western, Territory, has already been described as “epic”, “unforgettable” and “rollicking TV”.

    Robert Taylor plays patriarch Colin Lawson.
    Netflix

    Premium bush family drama

    The series takes place in the Northern Territory, on the “world’s largest cattle station”. The fictional Marianne Station is about the size of Belgium.

    The once-great dynasty of its owners, the Lawson family, is thrown into doubt when their heir apparent dies in the first episode. The Top End’s most powerful players – billionaire miners, rival cattle barons, desert gangsters and Indigenous elders – immediately start circling.

    While this is an original concept by creators Timothy Lee and Ben Davies, you’d be forgiven for feeling a sense of déjà vu, as Territory has been described as equal parts Succession and Yellowstone. I can imagine Netflix executives running the numbers on the returns from those two hits and saying, “let’s throw some money into this”. And boy, did they.

    The show could double as a sophisticated Tourism Australia ad.
    Netflix

    No expenses spared on hats and helicopters

    Territory was directed by Wolf Creek heavyweight Greg McLean. According to him, it’s the

    biggest South Australian TV production ever. Possibly one of the biggest TV productions in Australia just in terms of the amount of crew (and) the incredible support that we had to put in place to go to the locations we went to.

    As Netflix put it, Bondi Beach this is not. While the interiors were filmed in South Australia, half of the series was filmed in stunning remote locations across the NT.

    As a result, the show looks like the most ambitious and sophisticated Tourism Australia ad you’ve ever seen. The wildlife! The panoramic drone shots! The hat budget! The rest of the world could go from thinking we ride kangaroos to work, to assuming we’ve all got our own helicopters.

    Overseas viewers watching would be forgiven for thinking the lot of us have our own helicopters.
    Netflix

    The show looks as expensive as it sounds, but is still kind of soapy. The irony in this story is that everyone’s dirty, but no one ever sweats.

    Territory was originally announced as “Desert King”. Changing the name was wise. The landscape is, for the most part, pretty lush – and not in a “look at this oasis we’ve stumbled upon” kind of way. I counted one fly.

    Desert queens

    What’s more, while the male characters are brilliant sources of humour and violence, it’s the ladies in Territory that bring the heart.

    Anna Torv leads the series as Emily Lawson. Emily is the wife to the next-in-line but perpetually drunk Graham (Michael Dorman). She’s also the girl from the property next door, belonging to the rival Hodge family – a slightly shifty bunch who’ve been known to steal the Lawson’s cattle.

    Anna Torv plays Emily Lawson with a keen sense of cunning.
    Netflix

    Torv was the perfect choice to embody Emily as the long-suffering wife, disdained daughter-in-law, loving sister and exasperated mother. Her poker face kept me guessing. She may not be a Lawson by blood, but her cunning makes her a great fit in this powerful family.

    Kylah Day plays Sharnie Kennedy, a young kid kicking (and fooling) around with a couple of Top End bandits. It was fun – if a little frustrating – to watch her figure out her loyalties and her limits.

    Finally, Sara Wiseman plays Sandra Kirby, a disgustingly wealthy and ruthless land developer who doubles as the quintessential villain. Sandra plays everyone – even her own son. Her merciless manipulation of aspiring Indigenous cattle baron Nolan Brannock (Clarence Ryan) stings, even as it feels quite heavy-handed.

    Clarence Ryan is impressive in his role as Indigenous station owner Nolan Brannock (left), who gets caught up in the drama.
    Netflix

    Whose land and whose legacy?

    Territory does a great job of establishing a simmering tension between the traditional owners of the land and the families and businesses that have taken possession of it.

    But for a show that’s so centred on the battle for power in the Top End, the plotlines that deal with the issue of dispossession move at a frustratingly slow pace.

    Perhaps this is to cater to a global audience, which will likely lack the context that local viewers have. And maybe, for Australian viewers, the enduring subordination and struggle of the original landowners is the intended takeaway.

    Ultimately, Territory is an ambitious and attractive series. It was wonderful to see so many resources poured into a new concept, filmed and set in a part of Australia that rarely sees the kind of spotlight it deserves.

    Sam Delich and Kylah Day play petty thieves Rich Petrakis and Sharnie Kennedy.
    Netflix

    Territory is streaming on Netflix from today.

    Alexa Scarlata does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Netflix’s Territory is a Succession-like drama packed with family rivalry and betrayal, set in Australia’s outback – https://theconversation.com/netflixs-territory-is-a-succession-like-drama-packed-with-family-rivalry-and-betrayal-set-in-australias-outback-241896

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Unemployment’s up, house prices are stagnating. But is the Victorian economy doing as badly as it seems?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Hayward, Emeritus Professor of Public Policy, RMIT University

    The early 1990s in Victoria were tough. The economy was contracting severely, the population was shrinking, employment was collapsing and the unemployment rate skyrocketed to the highest in the land.

    A long-term Labor government got the blame for allowing state debt to spiral out of control. Victoria, reckoned a popular joke at the time, was “Australia’s Mexico without the sunshine”.

    Is it happening all over again?

    Some reporting in national media would suggest it is.

    The Australian Financial Review has recently run a series on the state, including a piece last week quoting business leaders saying the Victorian economy was in trouble.

    Reference was made to the latest unemployment figures as supporting evidence. Victoria’s unemployment rate has risen over the last year, and at 4.4% is now the highest in the country. Rising numbers of company failures and stagnant house prices were also cited.

    Earlier in the month, data showing a falling rate of Victorian business start-ups was highlighted, while another Financial Review article examined the decline in the number of conferences. All this was referred to as evidence of a state struggling under the weight of

    $8.6 billion in levies [imposed] in [Labor’s] 2023 budget to curb a mountain of state debt that is forecast to reach $188 billion by 2028.

    The Australian also ran a feature on Victoria echoing the same themes.

    Readers were asked, “What the hell has gone wrong with Victoria?”. Public debt and taxation figured as prominent causes of an economic catastrophe in the making. The Australian deemed the state to be

    at best, trapped in stagnation, forcing it to cover falling private investment and expenditure with ever greater public largesse. And at worst […] as the spending and debt build-up sets off the alarms, a vicious spiral is triggered […] until the whole Ponzi scheme collapses.

    But are things that bad? What does the economic data actually show?

    Some positive signs

    It is true that unemployment in Victoria is rising, and is also high compared to the rest of the country. But it has been stable for the last four months, reflecting the impact of interest rate increases over the previous couple of years.

    Also, looking back over the last 40 years, the increase has been from a very low base, and remains at an historically low level – and a long way off the highs of the 1990s.

    The number of people in the labour force is continuing to grow at a healthy clip. The participation rate is now the highest on record.

    Last month, the labour force increased in seasonally adjusted terms by 20,000, and almost all of these additional people ended up in employment.

    The growth in employment since the end of the pandemic is notable.

    Since January 2023, employment has increased by 268,000, or 8% in seasonally adjusted terms. That’s 37% of the jobs added in the whole of Australia during that time.

    Yes, the share of job growth is falling, but it is still higher than the state’s population share, and it is from an unbelievably high base (55% of all jobs created nationally in July were in Victoria).

    The Australian Financial Review acknowledged that the latest jobs data were indeed “unexpectedly strong”.

    What about business insolvencies?

    Victorian insolvencies are on the rise (up 61% in September compared to the same month last year). But so too are they across Australia, with the national number rising at a higher clip (up 70%).

    What about the number of conferences in Victoria? We simply cannot be sure whether they are up or down, because there is no consistent data base to settle the matter.

    And while Victoria may have fallen behind other states in the number of new startups per 1,000 businesses, the actual number of businesses has increased by more than 31,000, or 3%, since the beginning of the year.

    How are house prices and rents holding up?

    Yes, house prices are tumbling. In real terms, they are around 20% below their pandemic peak, at least partly caused by a bundle of new property taxes introduced in the 2023/24 state budget to help pay for pandemic-related debt.

    But with housing affordability at an all-time low courtesy of high interest rates, that is no bad thing, especially for those keen to buy their first home.

    That fall in house prices stands in contrast to a boom in rents over the same time period.

    Over the last 12 months, median rents in Victoria have increased by 13.3%, and by 4.3% over the last quarter. In the March quarter, the rental stock fell for the first time on record, perhaps supporting those who see an economy in trouble.

    But that fall amounted to barely 10,000 dwellings, or only 2.7% of the stock. Those properties had to be sold to someone, and it is likely many were sold to first time buyers who, in changing tenure, had no net effect on the rental market. A redistribution of wealth like that may be no bad thing.

    Debt is high – but so is infrastructure spending

    There is no doubt the Victorian economy has been slowing, as has the rest of the country. That is exactly the outcome sought by the Reserve Bank when it pushed up interest rates last year.

    But there is little evidence to show Victoria is following the disastrous path of the early 1990s.

    Back then, state debt grew alarmingly because of a savage recession. This time round, state debt has grown strongly, but largely to fund a construction pipeline on a scale the state has not seen before.

    Infrastructure spending is now running close to $25 billion a year, almost five times what it was a decade ago. There’s a lot of jobs in those numbers, and shortly a lot of that infrastructure will come on line, boosting the state’s economic potential.

    There is one other factor driving Victoria’s surprisingly resilient economy. Net international migration increased by 152,000 in the year to March 2024 – almost 30% of the Australian total – driven partly by the return of international students.

    Very fast, migration-driven population growth is not being matched by increased output, and the state’s household income per person is continuing its long-term decline, leading some to argue it has become a “poor state”.

    Treasurer Tim Pallas will hope that the increase stock of debt-funded infrastructure provides the productivity boost sorely needed to turn that around.

    While on several indicators Victoria’s economy is slowing, this largely reflects a national trend. Drilling down into the data shows there are signs of growth, which suggest alarm at this stage is not justified.

    David Hayward does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Unemployment’s up, house prices are stagnating. But is the Victorian economy doing as badly as it seems? – https://theconversation.com/unemployments-up-house-prices-are-stagnating-but-is-the-victorian-economy-doing-as-badly-as-it-seems-241762

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: If a Year 12 student gets an early offer for uni, does it mean they stop trying?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew J. Martin, Scientia Professor and Professor of Educational Psychology, UNSW Sydney

    Ground Picture/Shutterstock

    Early entry schemes for university – where students get an offer before their final exams – are increasingly popular.

    For example, more than 27,000 students applied to the Universities Admissions Centre (which mostly deals with New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory unis) for an early offer in 2024. This was a record number and an almost 19% increase on 2023.

    On the one hand, early offers are seen as a way to reduce pressure on Year 12 students. But they are also increasingly criticised, with concerns students may stop trying once they receive an offer.

    Our new research shows applying for an early offer does not make a significant difference to how hard a student tries leading up to their final exams or their final results.

    What are early offers?

    The main round of university offers is in December-January, after students have done their final exams in the previous October and November and have their final results or ATAR.

    With early entry offer schemes, universities assess students using criteria other than (or on top of) final results.

    Amid concerns about students reducing their efforts, in February this year, federal and state education ministers agreed there would be no university offers until September. Federal Education Minister Jason Clare is pushing for a new, national approach to early entry by 2027.

    Year 12 students around Australia sit their final exams in October and November.
    Monkey Business Images/ Shutterstock



    Read more:
    ‘I don’t believe I would have gotten into university’: how early entry schemes help Year 12 students experiencing disadvantage

    Our research

    Our new study investigated the role of early entry offers on Year 12 students’ academic and personal wellbeing.

    We looked at three types of students: students applying for and receiving an early offer, students applying for but not receiving an early offer, and students who did not apply for an early offer.

    We then looked at multiple forms of academic and personal wellbeing, including:

    • the ATAR

    • motivation at school (their interest, energy, and drive to learn) and enjoyment of school

    • how students dealt with academic challenges (also called “academic buoyancy”)

    • study burnout

    • overall life satisfaction, mental health and self-esteem.

    Who did we study?

    The study involved Year 12 students in 2022 from schools in New South Wales.

    The average age for participants was 17, most (68%) were female, the majority (69%) lived in an urban area, just under a quarter (23%) were from a non-English speaking background, and just over half were from government schools (52%).

    We tracked the ATARs of 1,512 students for whom we had early offer data.

    We also surveyed a subset of 525 students from this group. We surveyed them in term 2 of Year 12 and then followed up with a second survey in term 4, about 2 weeks before their final exams.

    The surveys included questions about their academic and personal wellbeing. Both surveys were done online.

    What we found

    In terms of early entry status, 16% did not apply for an early offer, 21% applied but were unsuccessful, and 63% received an early offer.

    Using statistical modelling to control for prior differences in achievement and motivation between the groups, as well as age, gender, school type and learning difficulties, we found an early offer did not appear to have an impact on a student’s ATAR.

    We also found no impact on their motivation, effort, burnout or mental health.

    In fact, the best predictors of students’ final results were their previous results and their efforts earlier in Year 12.

    As our research showed, the findings for these predictors were statistically significant, meaning we can have confidence the results were not due to chance.

    This mirrors other research that suggests you can predict a student’s ATAR from their Year 11 results.

    Students in our study did not stop trying if they had an early offer to uni.
    Jacob Lund/ Shutterstock

    One important difference

    We did find one statistically significant effect. Those receiving an early offer scored about 10% higher in academic buoyancy than the other two groups.

    This means these students reported they were better able to overcome academic challenges, such as difficult assessment tasks and competing deadlines, as they approached their final exams.

    We found this difference even after controlling for any prior group differences in academic buoyancy.

    But we note it was only a relatively small effect.

    Why was there so little difference?

    Some possible explanations about why early offers did not appear to make much difference include:

    • Year 12 is a busy year full of activities (from formals and other events, to plans for life after school). It could be early entry status is quickly absorbed in all the demands of the final year and becomes normalised

    • the joy or relief of an early offer is short-lived and students return to their emotional equilibrium or their typical “set point” in terms of outlook on life

    • the ATAR looms large in students’ lives, so they may still want to do as well as they can – regardless of whether they get an early offer or not.

    What does this mean?

    Our study suggests receiving an early offer for university does not make much of a difference to final outcomes.

    So this suggests students can apply for an early entry offer if they want to.

    But once the application is submitted, they need to return their focus to factors that are influential in final outcomes — such as their learning, motivation, and engagement through Year 12.

    Helen Tam, Kim Paino, Anthony Manny, Mitch Smith and Nicole Swanson from the Universities Admissions Centre helped with the research on which this article is based.

    Andrew J. Martin has received funding from the Australian Research Council, International Boys’ Schools Coalition, NSW Department of Education, and Commonwealth Department of Education.

    – ref. If a Year 12 student gets an early offer for uni, does it mean they stop trying? – https://theconversation.com/if-a-year-12-student-gets-an-early-offer-for-uni-does-it-mean-they-stop-trying-241787

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Cultural burning isn’t just important to Indigenous culture – it’s essential to Australia’s disaster management

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bhiamie Williamson, Research Fellow, Monash University

    Toa55/Shutterstock

    Last month, Australia’s newly appointed minister for emergency management, Senator Jenny McAllister, and Senator Tony Sheldon, special envoy for disaster recovery, took part in a cultural burn outside Lismore in New South Wales, as part of the National Gathering on Indigenous Disaster Resilience.

    It was significant to see members of the federal government listening to and taking direction from a cultural burn expert, Oliver Costello of Jagun Alliance, before undertaking a burn.

    Cultural burning is increasingly being used in disaster management. Pictured: Oliver Costello, Senator Jenny McAllister, Bhiamie Williamson and Senator Tony Sheldon at a cultural burn held during the National Gathering.
    Gabrielle Connole, CC BY-NC-ND

    It represented a hopeful sign that cultural burning might be increasingly used as a tool for disaster mitigation. After all, McAllister isn’t the minister for Indigenous affairs or the environment – her role is emergency management. At last month’s meeting, Indigenous peoples spoke of their desire and inherent right to be involved in disaster management.

    Cultural burning is, of course, vitally important to culture. But these gentle, regular burns were one of the main ways Indigenous groups managed land. They created mosaics of burned and unburned land, reducing the chance of megafires by burning fuel loads and creating safe havens in dangerous times.

    Networks of Indigenous groups have begun using fire to once again care for Country all around Australia. These are positive signs. But there is more to do to dismantle remaining barriers to mainstreaming cultural burning – and making it possible to use these ancient techniques to reduce, or avoid, disasters.

    An ancient practice rekindled

    The evidence of Indigenous land management using fire is significant and growing.

    This evidence has emerged through formal truth-telling processes such as Yoorrook, whose commissioners heard about the deliberate suppression of Indigenous land management in Victoria. It has come from ongoing academic research stitching settler accounts of the land and observations of how Indigenous groups used fire. In 1802, for instance, the settler John Murray recorded his amazement at how Boon Wurrung people set and controlled fire in Victoria’s Western Port Bay. The fire, which “must have covered an acre of ground”, was “dous’d […] at once”.

    In Mary Gilmore’s account of 19th-century colonial life in the New South Wales Riverina, she writes:

    As to fire, it was [Indigenous people] who taught our first settlers to get bushes and beat out a conflagration […] Indeed, it was a constant wonder, when I was little, how easily [Indigenous people] would check a fire before it grew too big for close handling or start a return fire when and where it was safest.

    These historical observations are complementary to the work of passing on knowledge of fire to the next generation. Taken together, they reveal a fundamental truth about Australia – it is a land of fire, and Indigenous people are the masters.

    The return of parcels of land to Indigenous groups in recent decades means we can restart these ancient fire regimes, through Indigenous rangers and other organisations.

    The return of ancient practices

    The management of land over deep time by Indigenous groups has meant people and the land effectively co-evolved.

    Since 1788, colonisation and Indigenous dispossession have radically altered many parts of Australia. Land was cleared for farms, cities, roads and infrastructure. Rivers were dammed for irrigation.

    Grasslands and yam fields were converted to livestock farms or cropping. Forested areas in some areas were cleared and in other areas thickly regrew, replacing the park-like mix of grassland and stands of trees produced by Indigenous land management. Thirsty crops such as cotton were planted, siphoning off huge volumes of water from lakes and rivers.

    John Glover’s 1838 painting shows open savannahs and grasslands in the Surrey Hills district of north-west Tasmania. In our time, this area has become temperate rainforest.
    Art Gallery of NSW

    Even the creation of national parks transformed landscapes, as Western practices of more passive management replaced active Indigenous management.

    The suppression of cultural burning brought yet more difficult change to Australia’s plants and animals. Australia now has one of the highest extinction rates of animals in the world. But cultural burning is being applied as a method to help protect vulnerable species, such as the Corroboree Frog.

    Over years, Indigenous groups have worked diligently and strategically to rekindle this ancient practice. But they have also reimagined it. It’s time to ask the question: what would it mean to bring back cultural burning at scale?

    No longer do Indigenous groups apply fire as a normal and everyday rhythm of life, stopping to light small fires as they walk. It’s now much more deliberate, requiring careful planning, creation of fire breaks and management of fire using trucks and heavy machinery.

    Even ignition is done differently. For a ceremony, firesticks will be used, with further lighting done using drip torches. In remote areas, fires are lit from helicopters, making it possible to cover vast areas.

    Combining these ancient and contemporary practices creates something fundamentally new. We require innovative discourses to better describe these developments.

    Indigenous Yika rangers burn using drip torches.
    Rohan Carboon/Indigenous Desert Alliance, CC BY

    New fire season, new hazards

    This fire season is likely to be a dangerous one. The seasonal bushfire outlook released by the Australasian Fire and Emergency Council projects the risk of early fires and a higher-than-usual bushfire risk over vast areas of Australia.

    Large parts of Australia are forecast to have a higher fire risk this spring.
    Australasian Fire and Emergency Council, CC BY-SA

    Recent rainy La Nina years triggered rapid vegetation growth in many areas, increasing the fuel load. Fire authorities are worried about what a forecast hot, dry, windy summer will mean.

    In recent years, Indigenous ranger groups have been undertaking cool burns as much as possible. In arid areas, there are fears of fast-moving grass fires due to the spread of introduced and highly flammable buffel grass.

    As danger from climate change intensifies, making volatile and combustible landscapes safer poses challenges both complex – and urgent.

    Indigenous groups around Australia have begun the work of rekindling cultural burns, but barriers still remain. Responsibility for fire management in state forests, national parks and on private land has long been split between government authorities and landholders. It’s time this disaster management work by Indigenous groups was recognised and magnified by governments.

    To mainstream cultural burning will mean finding ways of sharing the knowledge of when and how to burn, and resourcing Indigenous groups to undertake training and burns. Doing this will not only benefit the land and Indigenous groups, but all Australians.



    Read more:
    Before the colonists came, we burned small and burned often to avoid big fires. It’s time to relearn cultural burning

    Bhiamie Williamson leads the National Indigenous Disaster Resilience Program at Monash University. He is also a Director of the environmental charity Country Needs People.

    – ref. Cultural burning isn’t just important to Indigenous culture – it’s essential to Australia’s disaster management – https://theconversation.com/cultural-burning-isnt-just-important-to-indigenous-culture-its-essential-to-australias-disaster-management-241269

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –