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Category: Analysis Assessment

  • MIL-Evening Report: Alone Australia is back. An expert explains what happens to your body and mind when you’re starving

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Therese O’Sullivan, Associate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics, Edith Cowan University

    SBS Publicity

    Alone Australia is back this week for a third season on SBS. And its ten contestants are learning what it means to be really hungry.

    They’ve been dropped alone into separate areas of the Tasmanian wilderness to film their experiences of the elements, isolation and hunger. The person who lasts the longest wins the A$250,000 prize.

    The contestants are trying various methods to find food. But not everyone’s had success in fishing, trapping and foraging. And the effects on their bodies and minds are already evident.

    Here’s what happens when hunger and starvation kick in.

    Shelter, water, food

    After shelter and water, food is a main concern for long-term survival – not just for Alone Australia contestants.

    Many of us are familiar with the feeling of hunger – discomfort caused by a lack of food. Hunger is a complex process that involves regulation of blood glucose levels and release of hormones that control appetite and how full you feel. For instance, when we are hungry, the stomach produces the hormone ghrelin, telling us it’s time to eat.

    Starvation is a much more serious state. It’s a long period without enough food that results in severe disruption to how the body normally works.

    A healthy person may be able to survive without food for around one to two months. However, the length of time is likely to be affected by many factors including age, sex, fitness, health, sleep and access to clean drinking water.

    Last year’s winner of Alone Australia made it to 64 days, much of it without enough food.

    But even successful survivalists can struggle to find and eat enough food to meet their requirements. One previous contestant lost as much as 11 kilograms over eight days.

    Hunger is already an issue for contestants, most of whom are struggling to find food.

    What happens if you don’t have enough food?

    A lack of food doesn’t just affect your body size. It also affects the way your body functions. People can experience extreme tiredness, have trouble remembering recent events, and feel colder due to a drop in body temperature.

    Prolonged starvation can also have psychological impacts and affect the way you think, reason and make decisions.

    We have some clues from a study that would be unethical to reproduce today.

    The Minnesota Starvation Experiment started in 1944 to examine the effects of starvation on the body. The idea was to replicate the degree of starvation experienced in areas of Europe during world war two.

    Thirty-six healthy young men who were conscientious objectors to war service volunteered to undergo a six-month semi-starvation phase where their calorie intake was halved, followed by a three-month rehabilitation.

    Data showed they lost an average of one-quarter of their body weight (including a reduced heart mass).

    But other impacts included depression, fatigue and irritability. One participant said:

    little things that wouldn’t bother me before or after would really make me upset.

    Participants had difficulty concentrating, and their attitudes towards food changed dramatically. They had constant thoughts about food, hoarded food and even started collecting cookbooks. Many of these attitudes and behaviours lasted even after rehabilitation back to a normal diet.

    Yes, feeling ‘hangry’ is real

    Most Australians will be fortunate to never experience the same levels of starvation as in the Minnesota experiment or in Alone Australia.

    But even skipping a meal can have an impact on our wellbeing. We become
    “hangry” – when hunger leads us to be irritable or angry.

    A study of 64 participants from Europe tracked their hunger and emotions over 21 days. The more hungry the participants were, the more hangry they felt and the more unpleasant feelings they reported (for example, feeling depressed or stressed versus feeling relaxed or excited).

    When people are hungry, they are also more likely to have intrusive, mind-wandering thoughts.

    In a complex reading and comprehension task, the minds of people who hadn’t eaten for five hours wandered more than the minds of people who had eaten recently. Those who were hungry also performed worse on the task.

    So in Alone Australia, it’s easy to see how hunger can lead people to lose focus on what they’re doing, and their minds wandering. Rather than focusing on the best spot to go fishing, contestants’ minds can wander to feelings of self-doubt.

    Muzza from Victoria caught some fish early on. But will his success continue?
    Credit Narelle Portanier/SBS

    Hunger also affects decision making

    Feeling hungry also affects how you make rational decisions, but there’s conflicting evidence.

    Hungry people are more likely to make impulsive decisions about food. In Alone Australia, this might result in a decision to eat fish raw rather than cooking it first, a more hazardous choice due to an increased risk of infection from parasites.

    However, hungry people can show better judgement when making complex decisions with uncertain outcomes – like a gambling task. So being mildly hungry (in this study, overnight fasting) might sharpen your survival instincts. In Alone Australia, hungrier contestants may make better decisions around where to place hunting traps.

    But hunger’s effect on decision making is likely to depend on the context. It may make people more impulsive in some situations, but more strategic and willing to take risks in others.

    For the contestants in Alone Australia, some risk taking will be required to secure an ongoing food supply. This will be crucial to successfully surviving in the Tasmanian wilderness.

    Therese O’Sullivan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Alone Australia is back. An expert explains what happens to your body and mind when you’re starving – https://theconversation.com/alone-australia-is-back-an-expert-explains-what-happens-to-your-body-and-mind-when-youre-starving-249937

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Glass Menagerie: the haunting beauty of Tennessee Wiliams’ play endures in this Sydney revival

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Howard, Senior Lecturer, Discipline of English and Writing, University of Sydney

    Prudence Upton

    Tennessee Williams (1911-1983) is widely regarded as one of America’s greatest playwrights. A prolific and unabashedly autobiographical writer, Williams’ career spanned four decades of the 20th century.

    The Glass Menagerie, which premiered in Chicago on December 26 1944, was the writer’s first major success. It won scores of national theatrical awards and catapulted Williams to enduring fame.

    An engrossing new production of the classic play, currently running at Sydney’s Ensemble Theatre, does more than simply revive the famous piece of theatre. It revitalises it for modern audiences.

    A troubled family from St. Louis

    The Glass Menagerie is a lyrical exploration of memory, longing and familial obligation.

    Set in the 1930s in St. Louis, the play revolves around three adult members of the Wingfield family: Tom, a restless and possibly closeted young man torn between duty and desire; Laura, his painfully shy sister, whose physical disability and introversion leave her isolated from the world; and Amanda, their domineering but fragile mother who clings to faded Southern dreams.

    The plot is simple, and draws direct inspiration from Williams’ troubled family life. The Wingfields are struggling to get by. They live in a cramped apartment, in the shadow of an absent patriarch who we hear “fell in love with long distances” a long time ago.

    Amanda is desperate to secure a future for Laura. She pins her hopes on the arrival of a “gentleman caller”, convinced that marriage is the only hope for her daughter’s security.

    The plot follow the Wingfields, a small family struggling to get by in the 1930s in St. Louis.
    Prudence Upton

    When Tom – who is also the play’s narrator (a cutout for Williams himself) – invites a colleague to dinner, the overbearing Amanda seizes the opportunity to present Laura in the best possible light. Suffice to say, things do not end well.

    Lifting lyricism to its highest level

    Potted plot summaries don’t really do The Glass Menagerie justice.

    As Liesel Badorrek, director of the new production at Sydney’s Ensemble Theatre, points out, “Williams wanted to break with the prosaic realism that he felt had dominated the American theatre” and fashion a new, more symbolic approach to theatre, where memory and emotion take precedence over conventional forms of dramatic action.

    According to Williams himself, his aim was to demonstrate

    that truth, life, or reality is an organic thing which the poetic imagination can represent or suggest, in essence, only through transformation, through changing into other forms than those which were merely present in appearance.

    To bring his vision to life, Williams combined heightened poetic dialogue, repeated musical motifs and unconventional stagecraft. In doing so, he intentionally blurred the lines between reality and memory, allowing the audience to experience the emotional truth of the characters, rather than a literal depiction of events.

    This innovative approach to dramatic form was revolutionary at the time and became a hallmark of Williams’ mature work. As Arthur Miller once wrote:

    The Glass Menagerie in one stroke lifted lyricism to its highest level in our theatre’s history, but it broke new ground in another way. What was new in Tennessee Williams was his rhapsodic insistence that form serve his utterance rather than dominating and cramping it.

    Ensemble Theatre revives Williams’ play in a way that is both timeless and transcendent.
    Prudence Upton

    A fresh take with remarkable depth

    Miller’s observations about poetic rhapsody and form are worth keeping in mind when discussing the Ensemble Theatre’s impressive take on The Glass Menagerie.

    One of the great merits of the production is how it does justice to Williams’ formal innovations while also engaging the audience on an emotional level.

    Making excellent use of expressionistic lighting (Verity Hampson) and sound design (Maria Alfonsine and Damian de Boos-Smith), Badorrek’s production strikes a fine balance between preserving the play’s delicate, dreamlike structure and grounding its characters in charged performances that feel immediate and often painfully real.

    Deftly blending humour and pathos, the cast of four delivers strong performances that ensure the play’s vivid lyricism enhances (but does not overwhelm) its emotional core.

    Blazey Best’s Amanda delivers a tour de force performance.
    Prudence Upton

    Blazey Best’s Amanda is in equal measure maddening and charming, a true tour de force. Her verbal sparring with Danny Ball’s Tom was an early high point of the evening. One particularly striking moment was staged entirely in silhouette – elongated shadows stretching across the stage’s backdrop.

    That said, to me the true standouts were Bridie McKim and Tom Rogers, whose interpretations of Laura and the gentleman caller, Jim, lifted the entire production.

    In particular, McKim, who has called for greater disability representation in Australian theatre, brings remarkable depth and dynamism to the role of Laura. She imbues Laura with vulnerability and, crucially, strength.

    McKim imbues Laura with both vulnerability and strength.
    Prudence Upton

    McKim and Rogers breathe new life into this 81-year old staple of the dramatic canon. Their performances render Williams’ work fresh and contemporary, ensuring the play feels as urgent today as it would have in its post-war heyday.

    Alexander Howard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The Glass Menagerie: the haunting beauty of Tennessee Wiliams’ play endures in this Sydney revival – https://theconversation.com/the-glass-menagerie-the-haunting-beauty-of-tennessee-wiliams-play-endures-in-this-sydney-revival-252293

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: This budget’s tax tinkering isn’t the same as meaningful tax reform. Here’s why

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kristen Sobeck, Research Fellow, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

    Miha Creative/Shutterstock

    Labor’s tax changes this week do not tackle tax reform, or why we desperately need it. They only address the amount collected from personal income tax, which is the largest source of tax revenue.

    Real tax reform would review taxes such as the GST, taxes on savings (including housing and super), and personal and corporate income tax – and ensure they are sustainable over the long term.

    Tax cuts and tax revenue relate to the amount of tax the government collects. Reform needs to tackle both the amount of tax and how we collect it.

    It involves redesigning how we collect tax revenue in a way that is efficient, equitable, simple and resilient, to improve the well-being of all Australians.

    And the quantum – how much we collect as part of tax reform – depends on the demand for government services, which is growing, with structural budget deficits forecast for the next 10 years.

    So how does the income tax system work?

    When you earn a salary from your job, every dollar earned above A$18,200 is taxed. Income earned between $18,201 to $45,000 is taxed at 16 cents per dollar. Three higher tax brackets follow, as the table below shows. This is known as a progressive tax system, where the tax rate increases as your income rises.

    Mathematically, this means that if a worker named Jane has a $130,000 salary, the first $18,200 of her income is tax free, the next $26,800 of her salary is taxed at 16 cents for each dollar and so on. Her total income tax bill is $29,788.

    In the budget, the Labor government announced from July 1 2026, it would cut the 16 cents marginal income tax rate to 15 cents and from July 1 2027 to 14 cents. As the example above shows, the proposed reductions will affect all Australian income taxpayers, not just low income earners.

    The legislation passed parliament late on Wednesday night, but the Coalition has said it will repeal the cuts if it wins the election.

    What is bracket creep?

    Workers generally receive an increase in their wage each financial year. But in recent years, the increase in wages received by some workers hasn’t been enough to keep up with inflation (changes in prices).

    This is the case for our imaginary worker, Jane. Where she lives, prices have increased by 10%. Her employer has offered her a wage increase of 5%, so now she earns $136,500. However, everything where Jane lives is now 10% more expensive, so while her salary has increased, the purchasing power of her wage has declined.

    Unfortunately for Jane, the income tax system completely disregards her decline in living standards. Since her salary has increased she owes more income tax.

    This is what’s referred to as bracket creep. It’s also known as fiscal drag. It arises when our income tax bill goes up, our take-home pay (our disposable income) goes down as a result, and our standard of living declines.

    Sometimes inflation can push a person into a higher income tax bracket. This is the case for Jane, who now pays 37 cents per dollar on $555 of her income. However it also applies if a taxpayer remains in the same income tax bracket (since their salary still goes up and they owe more income tax).

    Is bracket creep a good or a bad thing?

    For workers, bracket creep is bad news because it reduces their after-tax income while their standard of living declines.

    However, for governments it can be a useful tool.

    First, bracket creep allows governments to collect more revenue than they would in the absence of inflation. Higher inflation means more revenue. This approach enables governments to increase expenditure and/or offer tax cuts to offset bracket creep. The government is doing the latter even in a period of budget deficit.

    Second, bracket creep can be useful for governments during periods of high inflation. Governments need to rein in spending to reduce high inflation and bracket creep is one way of achieving this goal.

    Given these benefits, Australia is not alone among developed countries that opt to change their income tax thresholds on a discretionary basis. Just over half (55%) of OECD countries took this approach in 2022 for their personal income tax systems.

    The remaining OECD countries (45%) applied automatic indexation in 2022. Indexation ensures that taxpayers’ income tax bills only increase (in real terms) when their wages increase by more than inflation.

    But ensuring tax brackets keep pace with inflation is only one part of the tax picture. Neither side of politics is addressing the sort of major tax reforms needed to make the tax system more sustainable and match fit for the 21st century. But the Tax and Transfer Policy Institute is prepared with ideas when they are.

    Kristen Sobeck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. This budget’s tax tinkering isn’t the same as meaningful tax reform. Here’s why – https://theconversation.com/this-budgets-tax-tinkering-isnt-the-same-as-meaningful-tax-reform-heres-why-253121

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: When a 1-in-100 year flood washed through the Coorong, it made the vital microbiome of this lagoon healthier

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Keneally, Post-Doctoral Research Fellow in Environmental Microbiology, University of Adelaide

    Darcy Whittaker, CC BY

    You might know South Australia’s iconic Coorong from the famous Australian children’s book, Storm Boy, set around this coastal lagoon.

    This internationally important wetland is sacred to the Ngarrindjeri people and a haven for migratory birds. The lagoon is the final stop for the Murray River’s waters before they reach the sea. Tens of thousands of migratory waterbirds visit annually. Pelicans, plovers, terns and ibises nest, while orange-bellied parrots visit and Murray Cod swim. But there are other important inhabitants – trillions of microscopic organisms.

    You might not give much thought to the sedimentary microbes of a lagoon. But these tiny microbes in the mud are vital to river ecosystems, quietly cycling nutrients and supporting the food web. Healthy microbes make for a healthy Coorong – and this unassuming lagoon is a key indicator for the health of the entire Murray-Darling Basin.

    For decades, the Coorong has been in poor health. Low water flows have concentrated salt and an excess of nutrients. But in 2022, torrential rains on the east coast turned into a once-in-a-century flood, which swept down the Murray into the Coorong.

    In our new research, we took the pulse of the Coorong’s microbiome after this huge flood and found the surging fresh water corrected microbial imbalances. The numbers of methane producing microbes fell while beneficial nutrient-eating bacteria grew. Populations of plants, animals and invertebrates boomed.

    We can’t just wait for irregular floods – we have to find ways to ensure enough water is left in the river to cleanse the Coorong naturally.

    Under a scanning electron micrograph, the mixed community of microbes in water is visible. This image shows a seawater sample.
    Sophie Leterme/Flinders University, CC BY

    Rivers have microbiomes, just like us

    Our gut microbes can change after a heavy meal or in response to dietary changes.

    In humans, a sudden shift in diet can encourage either helpful or harmful microbes.

    In the same way, aquatic microbes respond to changes in salinity and freshwater flows. Depending on what changes are happening, some species boom and others bust.

    As water gets saltier in brackish lagoons, communities of microbes have to adapt or die. High salinity often favours microbes with anaerobic metabolisms, meaning they don’t need oxygen. But these tiny lifeforms often produce the highly potent greenhouse gas methane. The microbes in wetlands are a large natural source of the gas.

    While we know pulses of freshwater are vital for river health, they don’t happen often enough. The waters of the Murray-Darling Basin support most of Australia’s irrigated farming. Negotiations over how to ensure adequate environmental flows have been fraught – and long-running. Water buybacks have improved matters somewhat, but researchers have found the river basin’s ecosystems are not in good condition.

    Wetlands such as the Coorong are a natural source of methane. The saltier the water gets, the more environmentally harmful microbes flourish – potentially producing more methane.
    Vincent_Nguyen

    The Coorong is out of balance

    A century ago, regular pulses of fresh water from the Murray flushed nutrients and sediment out of the Coorong, helping maintain habitat for fish, waterbirds and the plants and invertebrates they eat. While other catchments discharge into the Coorong, the Murray is by far the major water source.

    Over the next decades, growth in water use for farming meant less water in the river. In the 1930s, barrages were built near the river’s mouth to control nearby lake levels and prevent high salinity moving upstream in the face of reduced river flows.

    Major droughts have added further stress. Under these low-flow conditions, salt and nutrients get more and more concentrated, reaching extreme levels due to South Australia’s high rate of evaporation.

    In response, microbial communities can trigger harmful algae blooms or create low-oxygen “dead zones”, suffocating river life.

    The big flush of 2022

    In 2022, torrential rain fell in many parts of eastern Australia. Rainfall on the inland side of the Great Dividing Range filled rivers in the Murray-Darling Basin. That year became the largest flood since 1956.

    We set about recording the changes. As the salinity fell in ultra-salty areas, local microbial communities in the sediment were reshuffled.

    The numbers of methane-producing microbes fell sharply. This means the floods would have temporarily reduced the Coorong’s greenhouse footprint.

    Christopher Keneally sampling for microbes in the Coorong in 2022.
    Tyler Dornan, CC BY

    When we talk about harmful bacteria, we’re referring to microbes that emit greenhouse gases such as methane, drive the accumulation of toxic sulfide (such as Desulfobacteraceae), or cause algae blooms (Cyanobacteria) that can sicken people, fish and wildlife.

    During the flood, beneficial microbes from groups such as Halanaerobiaceae and Beggiatoaceae grew rapidly, consuming nutrients such as nitrogen, which is extremely high in the Coorong. This is very useful to prevent algae blooms. Beggiatoaceae bacteria also remove toxic sulfide compounds.

    The floods also let plants and invertebrates bounce back, flushed out salt and supported a healthier food web.

    On balance, we found the 2022 flood was positive for the Coorong. It’s as if the Coorong switched packets of chips for carrot sticks – the flood pulse reduced harmful bacteria and encouraged beneficial ones.

    While the variety of microbes shrank in some areas, those remaining performed key functions helping keep the ecosystem in balance.

    From 2022 to 2023, consistent high flows let native fish and aquatic plants bounce back, in turn improving feeding grounds for birds and allowing black swans to thrive.

    A group of black swans cruise the Coorong’s waters.
    Darcy Whittaker, CC BY

    Floods aren’t enough

    When enough water is allowed to flow down the Murray to the Coorong, ecosystems get healthier.

    But the Coorong has been in poor health for decades. It can’t just rely on rare flood events.

    Next year, policymakers will review the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, which sets the rules for sharing water in Australia’s largest and most economically important river system.

    Balancing our needs with those of other species is tricky. But if we neglect the environment, we risk more degradation and biodiversity loss in the Coorong.

    As the climate changes and rising water demands squeeze the basin, decision-makers must keep the water flowing for wildlife.

    Christopher Keneally receives funding from the Australian Government Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. His research is affiliated with The University of Adelaide and the Goyder Institute for Water Research. Chris is also a committee member and former president of the Biology Society of South Australia, and a member of the Australian Freshwater Sciences Society.

    Matt Gibbs receives funding from the Australian Government Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.

    Sophie Leterme receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC). Her research is affiliated with Flinders University, with the ARC Training Centre for Biofilm Research & Innovation, and with the Goyder Institute for Water Research.

    Justin Brookes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. When a 1-in-100 year flood washed through the Coorong, it made the vital microbiome of this lagoon healthier – https://theconversation.com/when-a-1-in-100-year-flood-washed-through-the-coorong-it-made-the-vital-microbiome-of-this-lagoon-healthier-252633

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Foreign aid cuts could mean 10 million more HIV infections by 2030 – and almost 3 million extra deaths

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rowan Martin-Hughes, Senior Research Fellow, Burnet Institute

    CI Photos/Shutterstock

    In January, the Trump administration ordered a broad pause on all US funding for foreign aid.

    Among other issues, this has significant effects on US funding for HIV. The United States has been the world’s biggest donor to international HIV assistance, providing 73% of funding in 2023.

    A large part of this is the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which oversees programs in low- and middle-income countries to prevent, diagnose and treat the virus. These programs have been significantly disrupted.

    What’s more, recent funding cuts for international HIV assistance go beyond the US. Five countries that provide the largest amount of foreign aid for HIV – the US, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the Netherlands – have announced cuts of between 8% and 70% to international aid in 2025 and 2026.

    Together, this may mean a 24% reduction in international HIV spending, in addition to the US foreign aid pause.

    We wanted to know how these cuts might affect HIV infections and deaths in the years to come. In a new study, we found the worst-case scenario could see more than 10 million extra infections than what we’d otherwise anticipate in the next five years, and almost 3 million additional deaths.

    What is HIV?

    HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) is a virus that attacks the body’s immune system. HIV can be transmitted at birth, during unprotected sex or thorough blood-to-blood contact such as shared needles.

    If left untreated, HIV can progress to AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome), a condition in which the immune system is severely damaged, and which can be fatal.

    HIV was the world’s deadliest infectious disease in the early 1990s. There’s still no cure for HIV, but modern treatments allow the virus to be suppressed with a daily pill. People with HIV who continue treatment can live without symptoms and don’t risk infecting others.

    A sustained global effort towards awareness, prevention, testing and treatment has reduced annual new HIV infections by 39% (from 2.1 million in 2010 to 1.3 million in 2023), and annual deaths by 51% (from 1.3 million to 630,000).

    Most of that drop happened in sub-Saharan Africa, where the epidemic was worst. Today, nearly two-thirds of people with HIV live in sub-Saharan Africa, and nearly all live in low- and middle-income countries.

    HIV can be diagnosed with a simple blood test.
    MaryBeth Semosky/Shutterstock

    Our study

    We wanted to estimate the impact of recent funding cuts from the US, UK, France, Germany and the Netherlands on HIV infections and deaths. To do this, we used our mathematical model for 26 low- and middle-income countries. The model includes data on international HIV spending as well as data on HIV cases and deaths.

    These 26 countries represent roughly half of all people living with HIV in low- and middle income countries, and half of international HIV spending. We set up each country model in collaboration with national HIV/AIDS teams, so the data sources reflected the best available local knowledge. We then extrapolated our findings from the 26 countries we modelled to all low- and middle-income countries.

    For each country, we first projected the number of new HIV infections and deaths that would occur if HIV spending stayed the same.

    Second, we modelled scenarios for anticipated cuts based on a 24% reduction in international HIV funding for each country.

    Finally, we modelled scenarios for the possible immediate discontinuation of PEPFAR in addition to other anticipated cuts.

    With the 24% cuts and PEPFAR discontinued, we estimated there could be 4.43 million to 10.75 million additional HIV infections between 2025 and 2030, and 770,000 to 2.93 million extra HIV-related deaths. Most of these would be because of cuts to treatment. For children, there could be up to an additional 882,400 infections and 119,000 deaths.

    In the more optimistic scenario in which PEPFAR continues but 24% is still cut from international HIV funding, we estimated there could be 70,000 to 1.73 million extra new HIV infections and 5,000 to 61,000 additional deaths between 2025 and 2030. This would still be 50% higher than if current spending were to continue.

    The wide range in our estimates reflects low- and middle-income countries committing to far more domestic funding for HIV in the best case, or broader health system dysfunction and a sustained gap in funding for HIV treatment in the worst case.

    Some funding for HIV treatment may be saved by taking that money from HIV prevention efforts, but this would have other consequences.

    The range also reflects limitations in the available data, and uncertainty within our analysis. But most of our assumptions were cautious, so these results likely underestimate the true impacts of funding cuts to HIV programs globally.

    Sending progress backwards

    If funding cuts continue, the world could face higher rates of annual new HIV infections by 2030 (up to 3.4 million) than at the peak of the global epidemic in 1995 (3.3 million).

    Sub-Saharan Africa will experience by far the greatest effects due to the high proportion of HIV treatment that has relied on international funding.

    In other regions, we estimate vulnerable groups such as people who inject drugs, sex workers, men who have sex with men, and trans and gender diverse people may experience increases in new HIV infections that are 1.3 to 6 times greater than the general population.

    The Asia-Pacific received US$591 million in international funding for HIV in 2023, which is the second highest after sub-Saharan Africa. So this region would likely experience a substantial rise in HIV as a result of anticipated funding cuts.

    Notably, more than 10% of new HIV infections among people born in Australia are estimated to have been acquired overseas. More HIV in the region is likely to mean more HIV in Australia.

    But concern is greatest for countries that are most acutely affected by HIV and AIDS, many of which will be most affected by international funding cuts.

    Rowan Martin-Hughes receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. He has previously received funding to conduct HIV modelling studies from the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care, Gates Foundation, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, UNAIDS, UNFPA, UNICEF, World Bank and World Health Organization.

    Debra ten Brink has previously received funding to conduct HIV modelling studies from the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care, Gates Foundation, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, UNAIDS, UNFPA, UNICEF, World Bank and World Health Organization.

    Nick Scott receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. He has previously received funding to conduct HIV modelling studies from the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care, Gates Foundation, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, UNAIDS, UNFPA, UNICEF, World Bank and World Health Organization.

    – ref. Foreign aid cuts could mean 10 million more HIV infections by 2030 – and almost 3 million extra deaths – https://theconversation.com/foreign-aid-cuts-could-mean-10-million-more-hiv-infections-by-2030-and-almost-3-million-extra-deaths-253017

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Do any non-drug treatments help back pain? Here’s what the evidence says

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rodrigo Rossi Nogueira Rizzo, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Neuroscience Research Australia

    Monika Wisniewska/Shutterstock

    Jason, a 42-year-old father of two, has been battling back pain for weeks. Scrolling through his phone, he sees ad after ad promising relief: chiropractic alignments, acupuncture, back braces, vibrating massage guns and herbal patches.

    His GP told him to “stay active”, but what does that even mean when every movement hurts? Jason wants to avoid strong painkillers and surgery, but with so many options (and opinions), it’s hard to know what works and what’s just marketing hype.

    If Jason’s experience sounds familiar, you’re not alone. Back pain is one of the most common reasons people visit a doctor. It can be challenging to manage, mainly due to widespread misunderstandings and the overwhelming number of ineffective and uncertain treatments promoted.

    We assessed the best available evidence of non-drug and non-surgical treatments to alleviate low back pain. Our review – published today by the independent, international group the Cochrane Collaboration – includes 31 Cochrane systematic reviews, covering 97,000 people with back pain.

    It shows bed rest doesn’t work for back pain. Some of the treatments that do work can depend on how long you’ve been in pain.

    Is back pain likely to be serious?

    There are different types of low back pain. It can:

    • be short-lived, lasting less than six weeks (acute back pain)
    • linger for a bit longer, for six to twelve weeks (sub-acute)
    • stick around for months and even years (chronic, defined as more than 12 weeks).

    In most cases (90-95%), back pain is non-specific and cannot be reliably linked to a specific cause or underlying disease. This includes common structural changes seen in x-rays and MRIs of the spine.

    For this reason, imaging of the back is only recommended in rare situations – typically when there’s a clear suspicion of serious back issues, such as after physical trauma or when there is numbness or loss of sensation in the groin or legs.

    Many people expect to receive painkillers for their back pain or even surgery, but these are no longer the front-line treatment options due to limited benefits and the high risk of harm.

    International clinical guidelines recommend people choose non-drug and non-surgical treatments to relieve their pain, improve function and reduce the distress commonly associated with back pain.

    So what works for different types of pain? Here’s what our review found when researchers compared these treatments with standard care (the typical treatment patients usually receive) or no treatment.

    What helps for short-term back pain

    1. Stay active – don’t rest in bed

    If your back pain is new, the best advice is also one of the simplest: keep moving despite the pain.

    Changing the way you move and use your body to protect it, or resting in bed, can seem like to right way to respond to pain – and may have even been recommended in the past. But we know know this excessive protective behaviour can make it harder to return to meaningful activities.

    This doesn’t mean pushing through pain or hitting the gym, but instead, trying to maintain your usual routines as much as possible. Evidence suggests that doing so won’t make your pain worse, and may improve it.

    2. Multidisciplinary care, if pain lingers

    For pain lasting six to 12 weeks, multidisciplinary treatment is likely to reduce pain compared to standard care.

    This involves a coordinated team of doctors, physiotherapists and psychologists working together to address the many factors contributing to your back pain persisting:

    • neurophysiological influences refer to how your nervous system is currently processing pain. It can make you more sensitive to signals from movements, thoughts, feelings and environment

    • psychological factors include how your thoughts, feelings and behaviours affect your pain system and, ultimately, the experience of pain you have

    • occupational factors include the physical demands of your job and how well you can manage them, as well as aspects like low job satisfaction, all of which can contribute to ongoing pain.

    It’s important to keep up your normal routines when you have low back pain.
    Raychan/Unsplash

    What works for chronic back pain

    Once pain has been around for more than 12 weeks, it can become more difficult to treat. But relief is still possible.

    Exercise therapy

    Exercise – especially programs tailored to your needs and preferences – is likely to reduce pain and help you move better. This could include aerobic activity, strength training or Pilates-based movements.

    It doesn’t seem to matter what type of exercise you do – it matters more that you are consistent and have the right level of supervision, especially early on.

    Multidisciplinary treatment

    As with short-term pain, coordinated care involving a mix of physical, occupational and psychological approaches likely works better than usual care alone.

    Psychological therapies

    Psychological therapies for chronic pain include approaches to help people change thinking, feelings, behaviours and reactions that might sustain persistent pain.

    These approaches are likely to reduce pain, though they may not be as effective in improving physical function.

    Acupuncture

    Acupuncture probably reduces pain and improves how well you can function compared to placebo or no treatment.

    While some debate remains about how it works, the evidence suggests potential benefits for some people with chronic back pain.

    Some people may find relief from accupuncture.
    Katherine Hanlon/Unsplash

    What doesn’t work or still raises uncertainty?

    The review found that many commonly advertised treatments still have uncertain benefits or probably do not benefit people with back pain.

    Spinal manipulation, for example, has uncertain benefits in acute and chronic back pain, and it likely does not improve how well you function if you have acute back pain.

    Traction, which involves stretching the spine using weights or pulleys, probably doesn’t help with chronic back pain. Despite its popularity in some circles, there’s little evidence that it works.

    There isn’t enough reliable data to determine whether advertised treatments – such back braces, vibrating massage guns and herbal patches – are effective.

    How can you use the findings?

    If you have back pain, start by considering how long you’ve had it. Then explore treatment options that research supports and discuss them with your GP, psychologist or physiotherapist.

    Your health provider should reassure you about the importance of gradually increasing your activity to resume meaningful work, social and life activities. They should also support you in making informed decisions about which treatments are most appropriate for you at this stage.

    Rodrigo Rossi Nogueira Rizzo receives funding from the Australian Government’s Medical Research Future Fund (MRFF).

    Aidan Cashin receives funding from a National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator Grant

    – ref. Do any non-drug treatments help back pain? Here’s what the evidence says – https://theconversation.com/do-any-non-drug-treatments-help-back-pain-heres-what-the-evidence-says-253122

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Defence spending: our research shows how Australia can stop buying weapons for the wars of the past

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pi-Shen Seet, Professor of Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Edith Cowan University

    Department of Defence

    Australia’s defence spending is on the rise. The future defence budget has already been increased to 2.4% of GDP. There is pressure from the new Trump administration in the United States to raise this further to at least 3%.

    The Albanese government has brought forward A$1 billion in defence spending for the 2025 federal budget. The Coalition in turn has promised to spend even more if elected.

    However, it is unclear whether the money will be spent wisely. Our recent research found that current defence planning may leave the Australian Defence Force (ADF) poorly prepared for future conflicts.

    To keep up, Australia must develop capabilities for contemporary “grey zone” operations (coercive statecraft activities that blur the line between peace and war, or fall short of war), as well as future 21st-century conflicts. Priority areas are cyber, information and space technologies.

    Positive signs and missteps

    In the past two years, we have seen a slew of announcements about the current and future capabilities of the ADF.

    Some have been positive. A new Defence Space Command has been set up. The 2023 Defence Strategic Review and 2024 Defence Industry Development Strategy were both promising.

    There have also been missteps. The MRH90 helicopters have been stood down. A $7 billion military satellite project was cancelled. And the Collins class submarines face ongoing problems.

    Defence experts have complained of “a lack of clear purpose and intent, a lack of direct connection between strategic objectives and industry policy, and a continuing project-by-project approach”.

    The ADF acknowledges the need for advanced technological capabilities. However, in practice it is still too focused on platforms and hardware suited more for the conflicts of the past.

    The current context and challenges

    Several Defence reviews over the past 50 years have found that the ADF procurement and acquisition system lacks the agility and resources to adapt to changes in the strategic environment.

    Defence spending as a share of GDP has been declining in Australia since the end of the Vietnam War. Notably, the ADF has focused on reducing costs, lowering errors in defence procurement, outsourcing to industry, and speeding up acquisition.



    Read more:
    FactCheck: is Defence spending down to 1938 levels?

    Despite the recent plans to increase defence budgets, critics argue the strategy is too little, too late. It delays the acquisition of most new capabilities to beyond five years from now.

    On October 30 2024, Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy announced a major acquisition of missiles, other guided weapons and explosive ordnance. Many of these acquisitions were simply plugging existing gaps, and would not be ready until at least 2029.

    Many of the acquisitions (such as missiles, 155mm ammunition and submarines) did not quite align with the government’s Defence Innovation, Science and Technology Strategy (DISTS) launched the previous month.

    The hard task of planning ahead

    Making plans for defence procurement is a difficult task. The strategic environment changes quickly, and technology can move even faster. As a result, planned acquisitions may be irrelevant by the time they arrive.

    However, there are ways to get better at forecasting. These include horizon scanning, to spot potentially important developments early, and systemic design for a big-picture approach. These approaches can also be combined with AI-supported analysis tools including scientometrics (which analyses the amount of research in different areas and how it is all linked) and natural language processing.

    We used these tools in recent research funded by the Australian Defence Department to explore the impact of emerging technologies on ADF capabilities.

    Scanning the horizon

    In our first project, we conducted a comprehensive horizon scan of emerging technologies, focusing on cyber, internet of things (or networked smart devices), AI, and autonomous systems.

    We used scientometric research methods, which provide a bird’s-eye view of research into disruptive and converging technologies.

    This was supplemented by a survey asking industry professionals and experts to evaluate emerging technologies. In particular, we asked about their potential impact, likelihood of deployment or utilisation, extensiveness of use, and novelty of use in future conflicts.

    The survey data was analysed using a qualitative, machine-driven, AI-based, data analysis tool. We used it for text mining, thematic and content analyses.

    We found the likelihood of deployment and utilisation of cyber technologies in conflict is very high in the near term, reflecting the growing challenges in this area. Similarly, AI technologies were also singled out for their immediate potential and urgency.

    We concluded that to maintain a competitive edge, the ADF must invest significantly in these priority areas, particularly cyber, network communications, AI and smart sensors.

    Designing better systems

    Our second project was a systemic design study evaluating Australia’s opportunities and barriers for achieving a technological advantage in light of regional military technological advancement.

    The study highlighted ten specific technologies or trends as potential force multipliers for the ADF. We found three areas with immediate potential and urgency: cybersecurity of critical infrastructure, optimisation and other algorithmic technologies, followed by space technologies.

    These findings were reinforced in further research supported by the Army Research Scheme. It found the ADF’s capabilities for operating effectively in the “grey zone” will be strongly facilitated by ensuring it is maintaining its technological edge in the integration of its cyber capabilities and information operations.

    A widespread challenge

    The ADF is not alone in these challenges. For example, successive UK governments have also identified persistent challenges in defence acquisition. These have included issues with budgetary planning due to limited competition, significant barriers to entry for new enterprises, and the constantly evolving geopolitical landscape.

    However, this should not be an excuse. Instead, in line with the Defence Innovation, Science and Technology Strategy, and as our research has found, it should serve as a catalyst for action.

    The ADF should focus on fostering emerging technologies and enabling the development of disruptive military capabilities to deliver asymmetric advantage for the ADF. As Australia’s Chief Defence Scientist notes, this will help get emerging technologies into the hands of our war fighters faster.

    The authors would like to acknowledge the following people from Edith Cowan University who contributed to the research: Helen Cripps, Jalleh Sharafizad, Stephanie Meek, Summer O’Brien, David Suter and Tony Marceddo.

    Pi-Shen Seet received funding from the Australian Department of Defence’s Strategic Policy Grant Program and the Australian Army Research Scheme.

    Anton Klarin receives funding from the Australian Department of Defence’s Strategic Policy Grant Program and the Australian Army Research Scheme.

    Janice Jones receives funding from the Australian Department of Defence’s Strategic Policy Grant Program and the Australian Army Research Scheme

    Mike Johnstone receives funding from the Australian Department of Defence’s Strategic Policy Grant Program and the Australian Army Research Scheme.

    Violetta Wilk receives funding from the Australian Department of Defence’s Strategic Policy Grant Program and the Australian Army Research Scheme.

    – ref. Defence spending: our research shows how Australia can stop buying weapons for the wars of the past – https://theconversation.com/defence-spending-our-research-shows-how-australia-can-stop-buying-weapons-for-the-wars-of-the-past-242788

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: New sentencing laws will drive NZ’s already high imprisonment rates – and budgets – even higher

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Linda Mussell, Senior Lecturer, Political Science and International Relations, University of Canterbury

    Paremoremo Maximum Security Prison near Auckland. Getty Images

    With the government’s Sentencing (Reform) Amendment Bill about to become law within days, New Zealand’s already high incarceration rate will almost certainly climb even higher.

    The new legislation essentially limits how much judges can reduce a prison sentence for mitigating factors (such as a guilty plea, young age or mental ability). A regulatory impact statement from the Ministry of Justice estimated it would result in 1,350 more people in prison.

    This and other law changes are effectively putting more people in prison for longer. By 2035, imprisonment numbers are expected to increase by 40% from their current levels, with significant cost implications. Last year, the Corrections budget was NZ$1.94 billion, up $150 million from the previous year.

    In sheer numbers, the Ministry of Justice projects the prison population will increase from 9,900 to 11,500 prisoners over the next decade. But Minister of Corrections Mark Mitchell recently said government policies could see a peak of 13,900 prisoners over that period.

    New Zealand’s imprisonment rate is already high at 187 per 100,000 people. That’s double the rate of Canada (90 per 100,000), and well above Australia (163 per 100,000) and England (141 per 100,000).

    Accounting for imprisonment and population projections, New Zealand’s prisoner ratio could be between 238 and 263 per 100,000 by 2035. That is higher than the current imprisonment rate in Iran (228 per 100,000).

    The role of remand

    Much of this increase is driven by the number of people awaiting trial or sentencing on remand. This has risen substantially in the past ten years and is expected to keep rising.

    Remand prisoner numbers are projected to nearly equal sentenced prisoners in 2034. Among women and young people, remand numbers are already higher than for sentenced prisoners.

    In October 2024, 89% of imprisoned youth were on remand, a 15% increase in seven years. In December 2024, 53% of women prisoners were on remand, more than double the 24% rate a decade ago. Men on remand comprise 41% of prisoners, nearly double the 21% rate a decade ago.

    Māori are affected most by these increases, making up 81% of imprisoned youth, 67% of imprisoned women and 53% of imprisoned men.

    Some 30% of those on remand are not convicted. Of those who are, data released to RNZ last year showed 2,138 people (15% of remand prisoners) were not convicted of their most serious change, almost double the 2014 figure of 1,075 people.

    Significant court delays can mean people are remanded for a long time. By 2034, it is projected the average remand time will be 99 days, compared with 83 days in February 2024. As well as being a human rights concern, this is very expensive.

    Minister of Corrections Mark Mitchell: prisoner numbers could reach 13,900 over the next decade.
    Getty Images

    Putting more people away for longer

    Crime and imprisonment rates fluctuate independently of each other, as the former Chief Science Advisor acknowledged in a 2018 report. Increasing imprisonment rates are the result of political decisions, not simple arithmetic.

    The Bail Amendment Act 2013 reversed the onus of proof in certain cases, meaning the default rule is that an accused person will not be granted bail. This results in more people being sent to prison while awaiting a hearing, trial or sentencing.

    When this week’s changes to the Sentencing Act come into effect, they will further constrain judges’ discretion, capping sentence reductions for mitigating factors at 40% (unless it would be “manifestly unjust”).

    At the same time, it has become more difficult for prisoners to return to the community. For example, some are kept in prison or recalled because they do not have stable housing. (Dean Wickliffe, currently on a hunger strike over an alleged assault by prison staff, was arrested for breaching parole by living in his car.)

    Last year, Corrections received $1.94 billion in operating and capital budget, a $150 million increase to account for rising imprisonment numbers and prison expansion. There was no meaningful increase in funding for rehabilitation programmes or investment in legal aid.

    Imprisoning people is expensive. The cost of a person on custodial remand has almost doubled since 2015, from $239 a day to $437. For sentenced prisoners, it is $562 per day. This comes to between $159,505 and $205,130 per year to confine one person.

    The Waikeria expansion and beyond

    Corrections has developed a Long-Term Network Configuration Plan to meet anticipated prison population growth. This year’s budget in May will fund 240 high-security beds and 52 health centre beds at Christchurch men’s prison, at a cost of approximately $700-800 million.

    Those 240 beds will fit within 160 cells, meaning “double-bunking”. This is known to have a significant impact to prisoner health and rehabilitation, and can also add to staffing costs.

    Former corrections minister Kelvin Davis acknowledged this before the first 600-bed expansion of Waikeria prison, costed at $750 million in 2018. By June 2023, that had increased by 22% to $916 million.

    The second Waikeria expansion will deliver another 810 beds for an estimated $890 million, although the exact budget has been unclear. These projects will involve public private partnership, a model known for not always delivering the cost savings and service quality initially promised.

    There will be other costs for facilities maintenance, asset management services and financing. And there can be unanticipated costs, too. For example, the government’s partner in the Waikeria expansion, Cornerstone, claimed $430 million against Corrections in 2022 for “time and productivity losses” due to COVID-19.

    These overall trends are happening while the government is also cutting funding for important social services. Shifting resources to improve social supports would be a better option – and one that has worked in Finland – than pouring more money into expanding prisons.

    Linda Mussell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. New sentencing laws will drive NZ’s already high imprisonment rates – and budgets – even higher – https://theconversation.com/new-sentencing-laws-will-drive-nzs-already-high-imprisonment-rates-and-budgets-even-higher-253119

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia may no longer be a ‘deputy sheriff’, but its reliance on the US has only grown deeper since 2000

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Andrews, Senior Manager, Policy & Engagement, Australian National University

    The year 2000 marked an inflection point for many Western countries, including Australia, in their outlook towards the world.

    The focus began to shift away from the peacekeeping interventions that had dominated the previous decade to one shaped by counter-terrorism operations and deployments to the Middle East.

    The threat of terrorism hasn’t gone away. But Australia is much more preoccupied by threats of a different nature 25 years later, largely emanating from China. These include cyber attacks, economic coercion, political interference, and the harassment of Australian Defence Force (ADF) ships, aircraft and personnel.

    Though our international outlook has changed a lot over the past quarter century, Australia’s alliance with the US has remained a constant throughout.

    However, as our militaries have grown closer, the US-China competition has also intensified. Combined with the array of unpredictable and destabilising decisions coming from the second Trump administration, this closeness has caused some unease in Australia.

    Evolving threats and challenges

    In December 2000, the Howard government released its first Defence White Paper. This marked the beginning of a period of major change in Australia’s international outlook and presence.

    It emphasised that “two interrelated trends seem likely to shape our strategic environment most strongly – globalisation and US strategic primacy”. It also noted that “military operations other than conventional war [were] becoming more common.”

    The paper was prescient in respect to China’s rise, as well. It said:

    The United States is central to the Asia-Pacific security system […] It will be in Asia that the United States is likely to face the toughest issues in shaping its future strategic role – especially in its relationship with China.

    There is a small but still significant possibility of growing and sustained confrontation between the major powers in Asia, and even of outright conflict. Australia’s interests could be deeply engaged in such a conflict, especially if it involved the United States.

    Yet, nine months after that document’s release, the terrorist attacks of September 11 2001, followed by the Bali bombings of 2002, began to dramatically reshape the global security outlook.

    A few days after the September 11 attack, Howard invoked the ANZUS Treaty for the first and only time, joinging US President George W. Bush’s “war on terror”. Australian forces then deployed to Afghanistan as part of the US-led invasion in October 2001.

    By the time the 2003 Foreign Policy White Paper was released, it highlighted “terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, regional disorder and transnational crimes such as people smuggling” as the key features of Australia’s “more complex security environment”.

    A month later, Australia joined the US-led “coalition of the willing” to invade Iraq to overthrow the regime of Saddam Hussein and locate and destroy stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction believed to be there. (It later emerged that evidence of the existence of these weapons was erroneous.)

    Australia contributed 2,000 troops to the mission. Our soldiers remained actively engaged in training, reconstruction and rehabilitation work in Iraq until July 2009.

    Both of these events tied Australia’s foreign policy interests to the US to a greater degree than any time since the Vietnam War.

    Although the relationship with the US had been critical to Australian defence and foreign policy for decades, it had become less prominent in Australia’s strategic planning in the years following the end of the Cold War.

    US support – and diplomatic pressure on Indonesia – had been vital in securing the post-referendum presence of Australian peacekeepers in East Timor in 1999. However, it was the “war on terror” that really re-centred the relationship as core to Australian foreign policy.

    In fact, Australia was even referred to as the US’ “deputy sheriff” in the Asia-Pacific – a nickname used by Bush in 2003 that caused some unease at home and in the region.

    This image has since gone on to have significant staying power, and it’s proved difficult for Australia to dislodge.

    History repeating?

    Though the accusations of war crimes levelled against Australian special forces in Afghanistan continue to reverberate, our foreign policy focus has shifted firmly back to our own region.

    This change was driven in large part by the perceived threat posed by a rising China. While the need to focus more on China was acknowledged as early as the 2009 Defence White Paper, this emphasis became most pronounced under Scott Morrison’s leadership.

    The 2024 National Defence Strategy portrayed Australia as facing “its most challenging strategic environment since the Second World War”.

    It advocated for a significant change in the ADF’s strategic objectives and structure, noting the optimism of the 1990s had been “replaced by the uncertainty and tensions of entrenched and increasing strategic competition between the US and China”.

    Today, the military ties between the US and Australia are arguably as close as they have ever been.

    The ADF operates top-tier US platforms like the F-35 combat aircraft, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, M1 Abrams tanks, and AH-64 Apache helicopters. Defence Minister Richard Marles has gone so far as to say the ADF should not only interoperable with the US, but interchangeable.

    If all goes to plan, Australia will also build and operate its own fleet of nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS partnership in the coming decades.

    At the same time, US President Donald Trump’s “America First” positioning has made the US’ closest allies nervous.

    His early moves have put paid to the notion that globalisation is the goal all major states are pursuing. In fact, some argue that deglobalisation may be taking hold as the US aggressively enacts tariffs against its allies, pursues economic onshoring and withdraws from key international bodies.

    These actions have led to many to question whether Australia has become too dependent on its major ally and if we need to emphasise a more self-reliant defence posture. However, this is much easier said than done.

    Looking back, the year 2000 represented the beginning of a period of major change for Australian foreign policy. Such is the pace of change now, we may view 2025 in the same light in another quarter century.

    Whether Australia’s alliance with the US will face long-term harm is yet to be seen. No matter how the bilateral relationship may change, the Indo-Pacific region will continue to be at the core of Australia’s foreign policy outlook, much as it was at the turn of the century.

    This piece is part of a series on how Australia has changed since the year 2000. You can read other pieces in the series here.

    David Andrews has not personally received funding from any relevant external bodies, but he has previously worked on projects funded by the Departments of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Home Affairs, and Defence. David is a member of the Australian Labor Party and Australian Institute of International Affairs, and previously worked for the Department of Defence.

    – ref. Australia may no longer be a ‘deputy sheriff’, but its reliance on the US has only grown deeper since 2000 – https://theconversation.com/australia-may-no-longer-be-a-deputy-sheriff-but-its-reliance-on-the-us-has-only-grown-deeper-since-2000-252501

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Happy dogs make happy humans, and 9 other reasons science says dogs need to chew

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul McGreevy, Professor, School of Veterinary Science, University of Sydney

    Chernika 888/Shutterstock

    In the wild, dogs spend a lot of their time chewing on bones, carcasses, sticks and kernels. For example, Australian dingoes can feed for up to 108 minutes in a single session.

    But most domestic dogs chew far less than their free-roaming counterparts. This is largely because of the introduction of easy-to-eat, processed pet foods such as kibble, which now comprises the majority of domestic dogs’ diet.

    This is a problem because although chewing carries some risks, overall it has significant benefits for dogs.

    As our new review, published in Frontiers in Veterinary Science, demonstrates, it enriches the physical, psychological and emotional health of dogs in many interconnected ways.

    1. Food acquisition and nourishment

    Dogs chew primarily to nourish themselves.

    Their large canine, premolar and molar teeth and wide gape help them to capture and dismember prey. Chewing whole carcasses provides them access to marrow, fibre and minerals that would otherwise be inaccessible.

    When they are not chowing down on body parts, free-ranging dogs forage on nuts, berries, and insects – a portion of which are also hidden in kernels, shells or exoskeletons and require chewing.

    Wild dogs such as dingoes can feed for up to 108 minutes in a single session.
    Cynthia A Jackson/Shutterstock

    2. Clean teeth and oral hygiene

    Dental disease is one of the most common health issues in companion and kennelled dogs. It is more common in smaller and older dogs.

    The abrasive action of chewing on hard and fibrous materials helps to remove and prevent the formation of plaque.

    This reduces bad breath, gum disease, tooth loss and therefore the requirement for dental procedures at the vet clinic.

    Of course, dogs with existing dental issues might find it impossible to chew. And it is recognised that some dental fractures may arise from chewing.

    3. Gastrointestinal health

    Chewing between meals can help facilitate digestion in all mammals.

    It can also prevent stomach inflammation and stimulate peristalsis (waves of contractions) in the gastrointestinal tract.

    This helps maintain regular bowel movements and stool consistency.

    4. Healthy microbiome

    The action of chewing promotes resident bugs that comprise a healthy microbiome and reduces harmful microbes, both in the oral cavity and in the lower intestine.

    The microbes of the microbiome work for their own survival and also for that of their dog host, for whom they help maintain healthy oral hygiene and gut health.

    5. Stress management

    Chewing stimulates the rest-and-digest elements of a dog’s life and can reduce acute stress.

    This gives dogs a potential mechanism to manage some of the challenges of both boredom and over-arousal.

    In this way, providing long-lasting chewables can help to alleviate anxiety associated with challenging situations such as being home alone.

    6. Bone density

    Stress is common to all mammals. It causes a release of cortisol, a hormone that can reduce bone density and, over time, lead to osteoporosis.

    Because chewing makes dogs less stressed, it can help to prevent some forms of osteoporosis by reducing corticosteroid concentrations in the blood.

    Chewing helps dogs destress and relax – especially when they’re at home alone.
    Olga Popko/Shutterstock

    7. Performance and focus

    Dogs can moderate their own arousal levels if they have the opportunity to chew.

    This appears to be bidirectional in that chewing can be stimulating for a bored dog or calming for an unsettled dog.

    As such, chewing may be a unique means of bringing dogs into the Goldilocks zone of arousal, also known as “eustress”. This zone improves a dog’s ability to focus, learn and perform complex tasks.

    8. Ageing well

    Dogs are living longer than they have in the past. Because of this, more are experiencing cognitive decline.

    Chewing on a bone or even a stick can help facilitate digestion in dogs and other mammals.
    Drew Rooke, CC BY-NC

    Research has shown that in other mammals, such as humans and rodents, chewing can protect cognitive function.

    For dogs already suffering some loss of cognitive function, chewing, with its variety and manipulative challenges, may be a valuable management tool to help sustain quality of life.

    9. Positive welfare

    The pet industry supplies myriad chewable products ranging from toys, dried or fresh animal products and commercially made chews.

    They are meeting the market populated by carers who’ve noticed their dogs relish chewing.

    Dogs usually become enlivened when offered chews, seeking them out and playing with them.

    Some even find a chew so highly valuable that they risk breaking bonds with dog or human family members by exhibiting resource-guarding behaviours.

    When we fail to provide chewables, dogs will instead select other less appropriate articles to serve their purpose. In the smorgasbord of potential targets in our homes, leather shoes are often toward the top of the menu.

    Providing dogs with healthy chewables will help stop them chewing on our shoes instead.
    Reddogs/Shutterstock

    10. Happy dogs make happy humans

    The very latest study on dog-human relationships has revealed a correlation between dogs’ cardiac responses to positive interactions and those of their human guardians.

    Although this study focussed on co-operative breed types, such as herding dogs, known to be highly responsive to humans, it demonstrated that cardiac activity of dogs and their owners mirrored each other. It also indicated cross-species connections comparable to those found in attachment relationships between humans.

    So, providing your dog with a way to de-stress can have the same benefits for your own emotional and physiological state.

    Incorporating chewing into the daily lives of our dogs may be one simple yet important way to ensure they are living happy and healthy lives. Note that chewing ability is individual and advice on the type of chew and its suitability for your dog should be sought from your veterinarian.

    We would like to acknowledge the enormous contribution of Rimini Quinn to this article.

    Paul McGreevy has received funding from the Australian Research Council, RSPCA Australia and animal welfare focussed philanthropy. He is a member of the British Veterinary Association and currently sits on the NSW Veterinary Practitioners Board.

    Kathryn Mills is affiliated with University of Sydney School of Veterinary Science

    – ref. Happy dogs make happy humans, and 9 other reasons science says dogs need to chew – https://theconversation.com/happy-dogs-make-happy-humans-and-9-other-reasons-science-says-dogs-need-to-chew-244028

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 60-day scripts were supposed to save time and money. So why are we still waiting for cheaper medicines?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Breadon, Program Director, Health and Aged Care, Grattan Institute

    adriaticfoto/Shutterstock

    Labor has committed A$690 million over four years to cut the maximum cost of medicines on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) to $25. The Coalition has matched the promise, which is estimated to save Australians $200 million a year.

    But consumers could save even more if an existing policy met its potential.

    In 2023, the federal government introduced 60-day prescribing. This meant consumers could get twice as many pills per script, with fewer trips to the pharmacist (and to the doctor for a script).

    The government announced that consumers would save up to $190 a year for a single medicine, and up to $46 for a concession card holder, compared to the costs of a 30-day script.

    But after a tough fight to get this policy, it isn’t living up to its promise.

    A hard-won policy

    It took political courage, and government spending, to get this change.

    Data on political donations show pharmaceutical interests make up the vast bulk of donations from the health sector. The Pharmacy Guild, which represents pharmacy owners, spent the most by far. These donations are an attempt to wield influence behind the scenes. When that fails, the guild isn’t afraid to attack governments in public.

    The federal government stared down a histrionic scare campaign against 60-day prescribing. The guild claimed pharmacies would close due to reduced dispensing fees. It also claimed medicines would run out, and children would overdose due to pill hoarding.

    The government pushed through the policy, but directly compensated rural pharmacies with ongoing payments worth $20 million a year.

    The government also brought forward negotiation of the eighth Community Pharmacy Agreement, which sets how much the government pays pharmacists for dispensing, medication management, and other services. The agreement was signed last year and added $3 billion in new spending.

    A long wait for longer scripts

    After all that conflict and cost, our analysis of PBS data shows the uptake of longer scripts has been painfully slow.

    About 300 drugs for chronic health conditions have been added to the eligibility list in three stages.

    For the first stage of medicines, the 60-day option became available in late 2023. This included common medications such as statins for high cholesterol, perindopril for high blood pressure, and alendronate for osteoporosis.

    More than a year later, in November 2024, only 30% of eligible stage one medicines dispensed were from a 60-day script.

    That’s well short of expectations. The Department of Health and Aged Care predicted 60-day uptake would reach 45% in 2023–24, 58% in 2024–25, and 63% in 2026–27, if fully implemented.

    Across all medicines eligible for 60-day prescribing, including those added in the second and third stages, just 21% of medicines dispensed were from a 60-day script.

    Even at these low rates, we estimate the policy has saved consumers more than $110 million so far. Higher uptake, closer to the rates the department predicted, would mean even more savings.

    Millions of people are missing out. In 2024, there were about 28 million 30-day scripts for statins, compared to about 5 million 60-day scripts. If half of these patients had a 60-day script, they would have saved an extra $27 million a year.

    If half of all eligible medicines were dispensed for 60 days, we estimate patients would have saved an extra $310 million a year. That’s more than the $200 million in expected savings from the $25 medicines promise.

    And while the government spends money on the $25 medicines policy, it saves money from 60-day scripts, by paying pharmacists fewer dispensing fees.

    We estimate the government has already saved $141 million from 60-day prescribing. It could save an extra $297 million a year if uptake increased to 50%.

    So why aren’t more GPs writing longer scripts?

    Despite the Pharmacy Guild’s efforts to undermine the reform, low uptake is more about doctors than pharmacists: the GP who writes the script determines its duration, not the pharmacist.

    Risks for patients aren’t the problem. While 60-day prescribing won’t be right for all patients, experts selected the eligible drugs because prescribing them for 60 days is usually appropriate and safe.

    While there’s some variation in 60-day prescribing rates for different medicines, it’s low across the board. That suggests the problem isn’t about GPs being much more cautious with some drugs than with others.

    The GP determines the duration of the script, not the pharmacist.
    Stephen Barnes/Shutterstock

    The culprit is probably inertia. GP practice software generates default prescriptions when a patient has had a drug before. With most people still getting 30-day prescriptions, that will be the default for most repeat scripts. And many patients might not be aware the new 60-day option is available.

    It’s time to get results

    With cost-of-living and health system pressures never far from the headlines, making progress on 60-day prescribing should be a priority.

    The benefits for patient and government budgets are obvious. But the benefits of freeing up time for busy clinicians shouldn’t be overlooked. Longer scripts means less GP time to write them, and less pharmacist time to fill them.

    As Australia gets older and sicker, the need for GP and pharmacist care grows, and there are severe primary care shortages in many parts of the country.

    Every second of GP time that can be freed up for diagnosis, treatment, and to help patients manage their conditions is precious.

    There is also good evidence pharmacists can provide cost-effective medication reviews, chronic disease management advice and other services. Shifting their time from retail to services is a great way to take pressure off the health system.

    So what can be done?

    Fortunately, there are some easy shortcuts to longer scripts.

    Providers of GP software should make 60-day prescribing the default for relevant medicines.

    The Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, the professional body for GPs, should continue to encourage GPs to write longer scripts.

    Primary Health Networks, the regional bodies responsible for improving primary care, should tell GPs how they compare with their peers, giving a nudge to GPs with low rates of 60-day prescribing.

    Finally, the federal government and consumer groups should run campaigns to inform patients about their options.

    Longer scripts are a triple win: savings on medicines for patients, budget savings for the government, and more time for GPs and pharmacists. Few reforms tick all those boxes, so it’s important this one makes its way from good policy to standard practice.

    Grattan Institute has been supported in its work by government, corporates, and philanthropic gifts. A full list of supporting organisations is published at www.grattan.edu.au.

    – ref. 60-day scripts were supposed to save time and money. So why are we still waiting for cheaper medicines? – https://theconversation.com/60-day-scripts-were-supposed-to-save-time-and-money-so-why-are-we-still-waiting-for-cheaper-medicines-250061

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Early exposure to air pollution could affect brain development and mental health later in life: new research

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Hobbs, Associate Professor and Transforming Lives Fellow in Spatial Data Science and Planetary Health, Sheffield Hallam University

    Getty Images

    Exposure to air pollution in early life could have lasting effects on child development and mental health in adolescence, according to our recent study.

    We integrated air pollution data with existing longitudinal data from the Christchurch Health and Development Study (CHDS). The CHDS has followed more than 1,200 children born in the city in 1977, with a strong focus on developmental and mental health outcomes.

    Our aim was to examine how exposure to air pollution shapes development and mental health in later childhood and adolescence. We found an increased risk of attention problems, conduct issues, lower educational attainment and substance abuse in adolescence associated with higher exposure.

    Existing evidence often focuses on adulthood. However, by tracking air pollution exposure from the prenatal period to the age of ten, and linking this data to subsequent cognitive and mental health outcomes, we were able to highlight the long-term consequences of growing up in polluted environments.

    Air pollution is one of the leading environmental contributors to disease, especially respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. Children are especially vulnerable to air pollution because their brains and bodies are developing.

    A growing body of evidence suggests air pollution could affect brain development, educational attainment and mental health, contributing to depression, anxiety and conduct or attention problems. Despite this, few studies have tracked long-term exposure to air pollution from early childhood.

    Patterns of exposure

    We chose to conduct this research in Christchurch because the city is a historical air-pollution hotspot, with a documented history of measurements, and because of its long-running birth cohort study.

    The CHDS collects detailed information on participants’ health, development, education and family backgrounds from prenatal into adulthood.

    The city of Christchurch now enjoys much better air quality, but it was an air-pollution hotspot in the past.
    Flickr/Larry Koester, CC BY-SA

    For this study, we linked historical air-pollution data, measured as the concentration of black smoke from 1977 to 1987, to residential locations of birth cohort members. This allowed researchers to estimate each child’s annual exposure to air pollution during key developmental periods.

    We found four distinct patterns of air-pollution exposure across childhood (see graph below):

    • consistently low (these children had the lowest levels of air pollution throughout childhood)

    • consistently high (this groups had the highest levels of air pollution from birth to the age of ten)

    • elevated preschool (exposure peaked between ages three to six and then declined)

    • high prenatal and postnatal (high exposure before and immediately after birth, but declining later).

    We then examined whether children in the higher exposure groups were more likely to experience adverse impacts on cognition, educational achievement and mental health in later childhood and adolescence.

    We adjusted for a range potential confounders such as socioeconomic status, neighbourhood disadvantage and parental characteristics.

    We found children with elevated pre-school exposure had poorer educational attainment and a higher likelihood of conduct disorders and substance abuse problems. High prenatal and postnatal exposure was linked to a greater risk of attention problems as well as substance abuse in adolescence.

    Children with persistently high air-pollution exposure were more likely to develop attention problems and had higher odds of substance abuse issues in adolescence.

    Researchers identified four different trajectory patterns of exposure to air pollution from the prenatal period through to the age of ten.
    Author provided, CC BY-SA

    What these findings mean

    The effects of air pollution on several outcomes were small at an individual level, but they could be highly important at a population level.

    This is because even small shifts in cognitive and mental health outcomes, when applied to entire populations of children exposed to poor air quality, could have major consequences affecting future educational achievement, workforce productivity and public health burdens.

    These findings support previous research suggesting air pollution could affect brain function by causing inflammation, oxidative stress and affecting neurodevelopmental pathways. Importantly, they reinforce the idea that certain developmental periods, such as the prenatal period and early childhood, may be especially sensitive to pollution exposure.

    We need further research to confirm our findings but potential considerations include reducing children’s exposure to air pollution and improving urban air quality by cutting emissions from vehicles, industry and residential heating.

    We should also promote cleaner energy sources to decrease exposure to harmful pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide and fine particulate matter. Providing better access to green spaces may mitigate the impact of air pollution.

    To strengthen public health and policy measures, we need stricter air quality regulations, particularly around schools and childcare centres. We should also implement air-quality monitoring in urban areas to identify high-risk zones for children.

    Better public information is crucial to minimise indoor and outdoor pollution exposure. This could include the use of air purifiers for indoor activies or limiting outdoor exposure during peak pollution periods.

    Further research and action

    Our study highlights the need for more research on air pollution’s effects on children’s mental health and cognition, particularly in different environmental and socioeconomic contexts.

    Policymakers, educators and healthcare professionals must consider air pollution as a potential risk factor for developmental challenges, not just a physical health concern.

    Air pollution may not be visible in the same way as poor housing or inaccessible healthcare, but its impact on child development could be important at a population level.

    Given the rising prevalence of mental ill health in young people and adults, tackling air pollution could be an overlooked but essential public health strategy for protecting future generations.

    Associate Professor Matthew Hobbs receives funding from Health Research Council of New Zealand and the Clare Foundation, New Zealand.

    Joseph Boden receives funding from the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Enterprise, and the Health Research Council of New Zealand.

    Lianne Jane Woodward and Susie (Bingyu) Deng do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Early exposure to air pollution could affect brain development and mental health later in life: new research – https://theconversation.com/early-exposure-to-air-pollution-could-affect-brain-development-and-mental-health-later-in-life-new-research-252644

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tiny robot tools powered by magnets could one day do brain surgery without cutting open the skull

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Changyan He, Lecturer, School of Engineering, University of Newcastle

    Photo supplied.

    Most brain surgery requires doctors to remove part of the skull to access hard-to-reach areas or tumours. It’s invasive, risky, and it takes a long time for the patient to recover.

    We have developed new, tiny robotic surgical tools that may let surgeons perform “keyhole surgery” on the brain. Despite their small size, our tools can mimic the full range of motion of a surgeon’s wrist, creating new possibilities for less-invasive brain surgery.

    Tiny tools for brain surgery

    Robotic surgical tools (around 8 millimetres in diameter) have been used for decades in keyhole surgery for other parts of the body. The challenge has been making a tool small enough (3mm in diameter) for neurosurgery.

    In a project led by the University of Toronto, where I was a postdoctoral fellow, we collaborated with The Hospital for Sick Children (SickKids) in Canada to develop a set of very small neurosurgery tools.

    The tools are only about 3mm in diameter. In a paper published in Science Robotics, we demonstrated these tools could grip, pull and cut tissue.

    Their extremely small size is possible as they are powered not by motors but by external magnetic fields.

    Three magnetic tools: a cutter, a gripper and forceps.
    Changyan He

    Current robotic surgical tools are typically driven by cables connected to electric motors. They work in much the same way as human fingers, which are manipulated by tendons in the hand connected to muscles in the wrist.

    However, pulleys smaller than several millimetres wide to control the instruments are weak and prone to friction, stretch and fracture. This creates challenges in scaling down the instruments, because of difficulties in making the parts of the system, assembling the mechanisms and managing friction in the cables.

    Magnetic controls

    The new robotic system consists of two parts. The first is the tiny tools themselves: a gripper, a scalpel and a set of forceps. The second part is what we call a “coil table”, which is a surgical table with several electromagnetic coils embedded inside.

    In this design, the patient would be positioned with their head on top of the embedded coils, and the robotic tools would be inserted into the brain via a small incision.

    Patients would lie on a ‘coil table’ containing magnets which are used to control the surgical tools.
    Changyan He

    By altering the amount of electricity flowing into the coils, we can manipulate the magnetic fields, causing the tools to grip, pull or cut tissue as desired.

    In open brain surgery, the surgeon relies on their own dexterous wrist to pivot the tools and tilt their tips to access hard-to-reach areas, such as removing a tumour inside the central cavity of the brain. Unlike other tools, our robotic neurosurgical tools can mimic this with “wristed” movements.

    Surprising precision

    We tested the tools in pre-clinical trials where we simulated the mechanical properties of the brain tissue they would need to work with. In some tests, we used pieces of tofu and raspberry placed inside a model of the brain.

    We compared the performance of these magnetically operated tools with that of standard tools handled by trained surgeons.

    We found the cuts made with the magnetic scalpel were consistent and narrow, with an average width of 0.3–0.4mm. That was even more precise than those from traditional hand tools, which ranged from 0.6 to 2.1mm.

    The magnetic scalpel, shown slicing some tofu inside a model of the brain, can make cuts more precise than those done with traditional tools.
    Changyan He

    As for the grippers, they could pick up the target 76% of the time.

    The magnetic grippers (shown here picking up some raspberry) were successful 76% of the time.
    Changyan He

    From the lab to the operating room

    We were surprised by how well the robotic tools performed. However, there is still a long way to go until this technology could help patients. It can take years, even decades, to develop medical devices, especially surgical robots.

    This study is part of a broader project based on years of work led by Eric Diller from the University of Toronto, an expert on magnet-driven micro-robots.

    Now, the team wants to make sure the robotic arm and magnetic system can fit comfortably in a hospital operating room. The team also wants to make it compatible with imaging systems such as fluoroscopy, which uses x-rays.
    After that, the tools may be ready for clinical trials.

    We’re excited about the potential for a new era of minimally invasive neurosurgical tools.

    Changyan He does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tiny robot tools powered by magnets could one day do brain surgery without cutting open the skull – https://theconversation.com/tiny-robot-tools-powered-by-magnets-could-one-day-do-brain-surgery-without-cutting-open-the-skull-253042

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Every 3 years, we play the election date waiting game. Are fixed terms the solution?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jill Sheppard, Senior Lecturer, School of Politics and International Relations, Australian National University

    With another election campaign unofficially underway, voters may feel it hasn’t been long since they were last at the voting booth.

    Australia’s Constitution dictates:

    every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first meeting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General.

    This allows the sitting government to call an election sooner than three years after taking office, but recent norms are for governments to use the full term length available to them.

    But how do politicians and the public feel about this format, and could this change anytime soon?

    Early elections

    In 1998, the John Howard Liberal government called an early election seeking voters’ support for its ambitious plans to introduce a goods and service tax. It came very close to defeat, but clawed its way to victory and nine more years of power.

    In 2016, the Malcolm Turnbull Liberal government took a similar punt, calling an early double dissolution election ostensibly on the issue of union corruption. Again, it came very close to defeat but clawed its way to victory (and six more years of power).

    Despite their reasons for calling early elections, both Howard and Turnbull faced declining global economic conditions and arguably moved tactically to avoid campaigning in the worst of the headwinds.

    Most governments have less appetite for capitalising on external events – like interest rate cuts – when calling an election. Voters already largely distrust politicians, and cynical early elections will only confirm their beliefs.

    Fixed versus non-fixed parliamentary terms

    The ability of a government to unilaterally decide the election date is unusual.

    The political systems most similar to Australia – New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom, the United States – all have fixed election dates. Australian states and territories have also increasingly moved to fixed dates, where the government of the day has no discretion over election timing.

    As prime minister, Julia Gillard effectively relinquished her right to manipulate the 2013 election date in her favour. She announced it more than seven months ahead of time. Her government lost the subsequent election.

    Unsurprisingly, there is little political will to move to fixed dates for federal elections. Only current Special Minister of State Don Farrell has expressed even passing support for the idea (and then, only if voters were clearly in favour).

    Fixed terms would undoubtedly benefit voters, who could plan their calendars well in advance. They would also benefit non-government parties and independent candidates, who could budget and plan campaigns around a known election date.

    Who wants longer terms?

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese supports four-year terms, reflecting long-term Labor Party policy.

    The Liberal Party has generally been more ambivalent. Howard was supportive but “not mad keen” in 2005 and supportive, but resigned to failure in 2024.

    Current leader Peter Dutton also backs longer terms, but observes that, among voters, “generally, there is a reluctance to do anything that makes the life of a politician easier”.

    Beyond voters’ reluctance to grant a one-year extension to politicians’ tenure, the issue of senate term lengths is an obstacle to reform.

    Current tradition sets senate terms twice the length of House of Representatives terms, however, Penny Wong has argued that eight-year terms are too long.

    Both New South Wales and South Australia have experience with eight-year terms in their upper houses, but no other states have yet followed.

    How could (and will) terms be changed?

    Any change to federal parliamentary terms would require a successful referendum. The question has been put to Australians once before, in 1988. Only 33% of voters supported the proposal, and no state achieved majority support.

    Polling from April 2024 finds only 38% support, with 18% unsure. Independent and minor party voters – the fastest growing group in Australian politics – were also the most strongly opposed to longer terms.

    As Dutton noted, voters have been reluctant to support “politician-friendly” referendums in the past. There seems almost no chance the 48th parliament would consider a referendum on the issue.

    Would 4-year terms make politics better?

    David Coleman, recently promoted to the Liberal Party’s frontbench, has confidently declared “businesses and consumers tend to hold off on investment during election periods and the phoney war that precedes them”, and so longer terms would improve the domestic economy.

    The business sector seems to agree.

    Are they right? And what about non-economic outcomes?

    Academic research backs up the assumption governments are less likely to announce major tax reforms in the months leading into an election. Shorter terms might also make governments less likely to introduce austerity (strict cost-cutting) measures.

    The weight of academic evidence suggests that whichever party is in power matters far more than the length of the electoral cycle.

    Researchers have struggled to find differences in how politicians with longer terms (usually four years) behave from those with shorter terms (usually two years). Activity levels for the shorter-term politicians appear slightly more frenetic – more fundraising and expenditure, more campaigning – but the outcomes are similar.

    Longer terms do not seem destined to fix Australia’s political malaise.

    Jill Sheppard receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Every 3 years, we play the election date waiting game. Are fixed terms the solution? – https://theconversation.com/every-3-years-we-play-the-election-date-waiting-game-are-fixed-terms-the-solution-250273

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Peter Dutton promises $6 billion 12-month halving of petrol and diesel excise

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Opposition leader Peter Dutton will promise in his Thursday budget reply that a Coalition government would immediately halve the fuel excise on petrol and diesel.

    The cut, which would take the excise from 50.8 cents a litre to 25.4 cents, would be for a year, at a cost of A$6 billion.

    The opposition says the measure would mean a household with one vehicle filling up once a week would save about $14 weekly, on average. This would amount to about $700 to $750 over the year, based on a 55 litre tank.

    A two-car household would save about $28 a week on average – nearly $1500 over the year.

    Legislation for the excise cut would be introduced on the first parliamentary sitting day after the election so it could come into effect “as quickly as possible”.

    Dutton contrasted the immediate relief with the longer time frame before people received the tax cuts announced in the budget.

    Under the tax changes, taxpayers will receive a tax cut of up to $268 from July 1 next year and up to $536 every year from July 1 2027.

    The $17.1 billion income tax package was being rushed through the Senate on Wednesday night, as the parliament readies to rise for the election, that could be called as early as Friday for May 3.

    The government wanted to pass the legislation immediately to put the Coalition, which opposed the bill and voted against it in parliament, on the spot.

    Also, having the tax cuts in law gives greater certainty to them, as Labor promotes them in the coming campaign.

    Dutton said of his proposed excise cut: “If elected, we will deliver this cost of living relief immediately – whereas people have to wait 15 months for Labor’s 70 cent a day tax tweak.”

    “This cost of living relief will make a real difference to families and small businesses – everyone from tradies, to mums and dads, to older Australians, and to transport delivery workers,” he said.

    “The commute to work, taking the kids to school or sport, the family drive, or the trip to the shops will all cost less under the Coalition. Our plan will save many hundreds of dollars for families across Australia.

    “Lowering costs to small businesses, means lower costs for goods and services at the checkout.”

    The Morrison government introduced a six-month cut to fuel excise in 2022. The Albanese government declined to extend it when it expired.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Peter Dutton promises $6 billion 12-month halving of petrol and diesel excise – https://theconversation.com/peter-dutton-promises-6-billion-12-month-halving-of-petrol-and-diesel-excise-250896

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics with Michelle Grattan: Jim Chalmers and Angus Taylor on tax top-ups and budget bottom lines

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    As the election starter’s gun is about to be fired, Tuesday’s budget announced modest income tax cuts as the government’s latest cost-of-living measure. The Coalition has opposed the tax relief, with Peter Dutton’s Thursday budget reply to put forward his policy counters on the cost of living.

    Meanwhile, the domestic economic debate is being conducted as President Donald Trump prepares to unveil more tariffs, which are likely to produce further uncertainty in the world economy.

    On this podcast we are joined by Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor.

    Chalmers says the government is making every last-minute effort to argue against Australia being hit with more US tariffs. He’s ready to make personal representations if that’s thought useful.

    I’ve been discussing that with Don Farrell, the minister for trade, whether or not that would be helpful to some of the efforts that he’s currently engaged in. So we’re working as a team on it. We’re working out the best [and] most effective ways to engage with the Americans. Again, speaking up for and standing up for our national interest.

    We’re not uniquely impacted by the tariffs either already imposed or proposed. But we’ve got a lot of skin in the game here. We’re a trading nation, we generate a lot of prosperity on global markets.

    A criticism from some about the budget was that climate change wasn’t mentioned explicitly. Chalmers takes issue with that.

    I would have thought that an extra A$3 billion for green metals, which is about leveraging our traditional strengths and resources, our developing industries and the energy transformation to create something that the world needs, I think that’s a climate change policy.

    And also the Innovation Fund, another $1.5 billion or so for the Innovation Fund in terms of sustainable aviation fuels, that’s a climate policy and also we’re recapitalising another couple of billion for the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

    So in every budget, we’ve made new investments in climate change and in energy and this week’s budget was no different in that regard.

    Angus Taylor is scathing about Labor’s “top-up” tax cuts, which were the budget’s centrepiece, saying:

    A government that has overseen an unprecedented collapse in our living standards, unrivalled by any other country in the world, and they’re trying to tell Australians that 70 cents a day, more than a year from now, is a solution to that problem?

    It’s laughable, it is not even going to touch the sides, it’s Band-Aid on a bullet wound. It’s a cruel hoax. And frankly, the idea that this is good government is absolutely laughable.

    On what change of approach a Coalition government would take, Angus Taylor points to the “fiscal rules that we adhered to when we were last in government”.

    They were on the back of the rules that were established in the Charter of Budget Honesty that was established by Peter Costello in the 1990s to make sure your economy grows faster than your spending. That doesn’t mean spending doesn’t grow, it just means your economy grows faster.

    So both of those things matter, a faster growing economy and managing your spending so that it’s not growing faster. Jim Chalmers doesn’t get that.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Jim Chalmers and Angus Taylor on tax top-ups and budget bottom lines – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-jim-chalmers-and-angus-taylor-on-tax-top-ups-and-budget-bottom-lines-253112

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘The bush calls us’: the defiant women who demanded a place on the walking track

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ruby Ekkel, PhD student in Australian History, Australian National University

    Fairfax Corporation (1932)

    ➡️ View the full interactive version of this article here.

    Ruby Ekkel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘The bush calls us’: the defiant women who demanded a place on the walking track – https://theconversation.com/the-bush-calls-us-the-defiant-women-who-demanded-a-place-on-the-walking-track-241126

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Going to the dentist is expensive. Here are 3 things you can do to protect your oral health – and 3 things to avoid

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dileep Sharma, Professor and Head of Discipline – Oral Health, University of Newcastle

    Jiri Hera/Shutterstock

    Around one in three Australians delayed their visit to a dentist in the last financial year – or didn’t go at all – due to cost.

    Given it doesn’t look like dental treatment is being added to Medicare any time soon, what can you do?

    Most oral and dental diseases are preventable, if you take care of your teeth and mouth. In-between visits to the dentist, here’s what you can do to avoid preventable issues – and blow-out costs.

    What causes diseases in your mouth?

    More than 1,000 species of microbes live in the mouth. Most dental and oral diseases are due to an imbalance or overgrowth in these microbes within the plaque (or “biofilm”).

    Plaque gathers on the hard surfaces inside the mouth (your teeth), as well as soft surfaces (such as your tongue). Removing plaque manually with brushing and flossing is the most effective way to maintain oral health.

    Plaque starts to form immediately after brushing, which is why you should remove it regularly.

    Things to do

    1. Brush twice a day

    Use a toothbrush with soft bristles (either electric or manual). Soft bristles remove plaque without damaging the teeth or gums. A fluoridated toothpaste will help strengthen the teeth.

    Brush for at least two minutes, using a sweeping and scrubbing motion, away from the gums. It’s a good idea to start at the back teeth and work your way through to the front teeth. Don’t forget to scrub the biting surface of the teeth.

    2. Floss

    Don’t skip this step – it’s crucial to clean in-between the teeth where a toothbrush can’t reach. Once a day should be enough.

    Whether you use floss, a pick, a bottle brush or other devices may depend on the space between your teeth.

    3. Clean your tongue

    To completely remove the microbes, it’s also important to clean your tongue regularly (twice daily). You can use a toothbrush while you’re already brushing, or a special tongue scraper – just don’t brush or scrape too hard.

    Brushing twice a day is important to remove bacteria in the mouth and on the teeth.
    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    Things to avoid

    1. Sugary drinks and refined food

    What we eat and drink can affect the mouth’s pH.

    When bacteria in the mouth break down sugars, they produce acids. The acidity can dissolve minerals in the teeth and lead to decay.

    Refined foods – such as white bread, cakes and pastries – can easily be broken down by the mouth’s bacteria. So, having a lot of them, as well as sugary drinks, can damage the teeth and cause cavities.

    Water is the best choice to drink with your meals. Sparkling and soda water are acidic and can lead to mineral loss from the teeth, even when they are unflavoured. There is evidence flavoured sparkling water can be as harmful as orange juice.

    2. Tobacco and vaping

    Smoking or using smokeless tobacco (such as chewed tobacco or snuff pouches) is linked to oral cancer.

    Nicotine is also known to increase the severity of gum diseases – even when inflammation isn’t visible.

    This is true for both smoking and smokeless tobacco (such as chewed tobacco or snuff pouches).

    Vaping also increases your risk of developing cavities and gum disease.

    3. Too much alcohol, tea and coffee

    Drinking a lot of coffee, tea or red wine can stain your teeth. So if you’re concerned about your teeth appearing yellow or brown, it’s best to limit your intake.

    Drinking alcohol is also linked to an increased risk of developing oral cancers, which most commonly affect the tongue, floor of the mouth, cheek and palate.

    Drinks that are fizzy and sugary can damage the teeth.
    Svetlana Foote/Shutterstock

    Your mouth’s health is linked to your overall health

    Leaving oral diseases untreated (such as gum disease) has been linked to developing other conditions, such as liver disease, and pre-existing conditions getting worse.

    This is particularly evident if you have diabetes. Evidence shows it’s easier to manage blood sugar levels when gum diseases are properly treated.

    You can keep an eye on symptoms, such as bleeding gums which may be an early sign of gum disease. If symptoms that worry you, talk to your GP or diabetes educator. They may be able to refer you to a dentist if needed.

    Dileep Sharma receives funding from Dental Council of NSW, International Association for Dental, Oral, and Craniofacial Research, Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, International College of Dentists and Tropical Australian Academic Health Centre for his dental research projects. He is affiliated with The International Association for Dental, Oral, and Craniofacial Research and Australian Dental Association.

    – ref. Going to the dentist is expensive. Here are 3 things you can do to protect your oral health – and 3 things to avoid – https://theconversation.com/going-to-the-dentist-is-expensive-here-are-3-things-you-can-do-to-protect-your-oral-health-and-3-things-to-avoid-250786

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Non-compete clauses make it too hard to change jobs. Banning them for millions of Australians is a good move

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William van Caenegem, Professor of Law, Bond University

    Zivica Kerkez/Shutterstock

    The Labor government used this week’s budget to announce it plans to ban non-compete agreements for employees on less than A$175,000 per year, a move that will affect about 3 million Australian workers.

    Describing them as “unfair”, a media release by federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers said non‑compete clauses “are holding back Australian workers from switching to better, higher‑paying jobs”. Banning non-compete clauses could lift the wages of affected workers by up to 4%, the government has said.

    The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry quickly called the measure “heavy-handed”, arguing that very few employees, according to businesses, turn down employment due to non-compete clauses.

    However, research I did with colleagues from Melbourne and Monash universities showed very few employees signing a new job contract ever think about the end of the relationship and what might happen after.

    Workers often accept non-compete clauses with little understanding or regard for their practical implications.

    What the law currently says

    The current law says contractual clauses that stop departing workers from taking a new job in their preferred line of work, often for long periods of time, are – in principle – unenforceable.

    That is, however, unless a court says a particular non-compete clause is “reasonably required” to protect a “legitimate interest”.

    Therein lies the problem: it is hard to predict when, where or under what circumstances a court will find a particular clause is “reasonably required”.

    Our research concluded this uncertainty favoured employers with greater nous and resources.

    These employers have the advantage over employees, who are rarely willing or able to go to court arguing their non-compete clause is invalid.

    This has a chilling effect on the mobility of employees. In other words, these clauses make it harder for workers to change jobs.

    That’s detrimental to labour market competition and can hold back knowledge-sharing and economic growth.

    Global efforts to ban non-compete clauses

    In California, non-compete clauses have long been banned. Many economists have identified this as among the key reasons for the success of the Californian knowledge economy. This example also featured in a submission I made (with researcher Caitlyn Douglas) to a 2024 Treasury review into non-compete clauses in Australia.

    US research from 2021 also found non-compete clauses can hinder labour mobility. They can impede fundamental freedoms such as freedom of employment and freedom of general competition.

    In 2024, under President Biden, the US Federal Trade Commission banned non-competes clauses across the US.

    However, the ban has been blocked due to legal challenges in the US Federal Court. It’s also been reported the Trump administration may kill off these reforms altogether.

    The UK government proposed in 2023 limiting non-competes to a maximum of three months.

    Holding employees back

    Unlike in some countries, Australian law does not require employers to compensate their ex-employee for loss of income during their non-compete period.

    This means that if workers comply and do not work in the field they’re most skilled for, they will take a serious financial hit for months or more.

    This is another detrimental effect of non-compete clauses. They really hurt if the worker in question is lower paid and has very specific skills (such as hairdressers or dental assistants).

    In that respect, Labor’s mooted ban on such clauses for employees on less than $175,000 is well conceived.

    Courts will usually only enforce a non-compete clause if its terms are reasonable to protect a legitimate interest, such as trade secrets an employee has learned during their employment.

    However, it’s mostly higher-ranked employees that have access to really significant trade secrets, such as technical information, confidential business plans or pricing structures.

    Higher paid employees are also more often the “public face of the business”. A court might decide it’s fair to say such workers can’t leave and the next day turn up as the main face of a competing business.

    And the new government proposal won’t leave employers without any recourse against employees who take their genuine trade secrets and pass them on to their new employers. They will still be able to sue for breach of confidence.

    Non-competes really hurt if the worker in question is lower paid and has very specific skills (such as hairdressers or dental assistants).
    Dorde Krstic/Shutterstock

    Challenges for reform

    The proposed reforms are well supported by authoritative legal and economic research.

    The federal government will have to consider carefully how to make sure the prohibition cannot be easily circumvented.

    And they’ll have to ensure these reforms don’t make it more likely judges will find restraints valid for those on more than A$175,000. Labour and knowledge mobility remain crucially important for them too.

    Another key challenge will be ensuring a ban doesn’t encourage practices or clauses restricting competition to emerge or become too prevalent.

    That could include “garden leave” clauses. These give a departing employee a long notice period, during which they are paid but do not work and are isolated from their employment (and instead “doing the gardening” at home).

    The risk is that if employers can no longer include non-compete clauses in contracts, they might use long garden leave provisions more often.

    Although it is good that “garden leave” employees get paid during that period (unlike during a non-compete term), they are still isolated from their work, stagnating in their skills and unable to move to new employment.

    William van Caenegem received funding from the Australian Research Council a decade ago for some of the research referred to in this article.

    – ref. Non-compete clauses make it too hard to change jobs. Banning them for millions of Australians is a good move – https://theconversation.com/non-compete-clauses-make-it-too-hard-to-change-jobs-banning-them-for-millions-of-australians-is-a-good-move-253101

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The 2025 federal budget fails the millions of voters who want action on Australia’s struggling environment

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Neal, Senior lecturer in Economics / Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney

    Commentators have branded last night’s federal budget as an attempt to win over typical Australian voters concerned about the cost of living, ahead of what is expected to be a tightly fought federal election.

    The budget’s big-ticket items included tax cuts and energy bill relief, plus measures to make childcare and healthcare cheaper.

    There was little in the budget dedicated to stemming Australia’s environmental crises. Given this, one might assume the average voter cares little for action on conservation and curbing climate change. But is this true?

    Polling suggests the clear answer is “no”. Voters consistently say they want more government action on both conservation and climate change. As the federal election looms, Labor is running out of time to show it cares about Australia’s precious natural environment.

    What environmental spending was in the budget?

    The main spending on the environment in last night’s budget had been announced in the weeks before. It includes:

    These measures are welcome. However, the overall environment spending is inadequate, given the scale of the challenges Australia faces.

    Australia’s protected areas, such as national parks, have suffered decades of poor funding, and the federal budget has not rectified this. It means these sensitive natural places will remain vulnerable to harms such as invasive species and bushfires.

    More broadly, Australia is failing to stem the drivers of biodiversity loss, such as land clearing and climate change. This means more native species become threatened with extinction each year.

    Experts say conserving Australia’s threatened species would cost an extra $2 billion a year. Clearly, the federal budget spending of an extra $50 million a year falls well short of this.

    And global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase. This contributes to ever-worsening climate change, bringing heatwaves, more extreme fires, more variable rainfall and rising seas.

    Contrary to what the federal budget priorities might suggest, Australians are concerned about these issues.

    What does the average voter think about the environment?

    Results from reputable polling provide insight into what the average voters want when it comes to environmental policy and spending.

    When it comes to conservation, the evidence is clear. Polling by YouGov in October last year (commissioned by two environment groups) estimated that 70% of Australians think the Labor government should do more to “protect and restore nature”. The vast majority of voters (86%) supported stronger national nature laws.

    Essential Research polling in October 2023 found 53% of voters think the government is not doing enough to preserve endangered species. About the same proportion said more government action was needed to preserve native forests, and oceans and rivers.

    On climate change, the average voter appears to have views significantly out of step with both major parties. The Australia Institute’s Climate of the Nation report last year found 50% of voters believed the government was not doing enough to prepare for and adapt to climate impacts.

    The report also found 50% of voters supported a moratorium on new coal mines in Australia, 69% support charging companies a levy for each tonne of carbon pollution they emit, and 69% are concerned about climate change.

    Also in 2024, a Lowy Institute poll found 57% of Australians supported the statement that “global warming is a serious and pressing problem, and that we should take steps now to mitigate it even if it involves significant costs”.

    There’s a caveat here. As the cost-of-living crisis has worsened, the issue has edged out all others in terms of voter concerns at the upcoming election.

    For example, in January this year, Roy Morgan polling found 57% of voters considered cost of living one of their top-three issues of concern. Only 23% considered global warming a top-three issue.

    However, global warming was still more of a concern for voters than managing the economy (22%), keeping interest rates down (19%) and reducing taxes (15%). It was tied with reducing crime (23%).

    It’s also important to note that climate change and cost-of-living pressures are not separate issues. Research suggests that as climate change worsens, it will cause inflation to worsen.

    Labor’s unmet election promises

    The singular focus on the cost of living in last night’s federal budget means environmental spending has been neglected.

    Context matters here. Labor has utterly failed to deliver its 2022 election promise to rewrite federal environmental protection laws and create an environmental protection agency.

    The government could have used this budget to repair its environmental credentials going into the next election – but it didn’t. The many voters concerned about the environment might well wonder if Labor considers the environment a policy priority at all.

    The upcoming election result may show whether minor parties and independents better reflect the Australian electorate’s views on this important issue.

    Timothy Neal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The 2025 federal budget fails the millions of voters who want action on Australia’s struggling environment – https://theconversation.com/the-2025-federal-budget-fails-the-millions-of-voters-who-want-action-on-australias-struggling-environment-253099

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Our work and home lives are blending more than ever – how do we navigate this new ‘zigzag’ reality?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Candice Harris, Professor of Management, Auckland University of Technology

    Black Salmon/Shutterstock

    For decades, researchers examined work and home life as separate domains. If they were taken together it was usually to study so-called work-life balance.

    But these days, the reality is more complex. Our work and home lives are more seamlessly integrated than ever, largely because of communications technology and the work-from-home trend.

    This can mean we deal with a work matter and a bit of domestic or family business virtually simultaneously, shifting attention and focus from one to the other within seconds.

    We’ve dubbed this phenomenon “zigzag working” to describe how employees blend work and family roles within times and spaces that might once have been separate.

    During and in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, this became more common as many working parents had to perform their paid work at home. But as workers increasingly return to the office, has zigzag working become the new normal?

    In our research, we studied zigzag working beyond COVID to test support for it, and to understand its effects on conflict and happiness. Our study used a survey with two samples: 318 employees and 373 managers.

    Zigzag working in action

    Zigzag working provides a unique way to examine the blending of work and life. Frequent interspersing of family and work happens regularly. But what does it look like?

    Consider Raj, a senior banking professional and solo parent of a 14-year-old. Here’s how a couple of hours of interspersing work and family while in the office unfold:

    11:02 am. While listening to the CEO’s update, Raj messages his son, encouraging him to play basketball in the school break instead of gaming. His son responds with “whatever”.

    11:09 am. Raj replies: “Yes, whatever – go have a run.”

    11:48 am. He dashes out to buy lunch, remembering school camp fees are due by 5 pm.

    11:54 am. Heading back to his office, he takes a call from a colleague.

    12:02 pm. Back at his desk, Raj checks his diary while on the call, realising it’s his mother’s birthday.

    12:11 pm. Raj orders flowers for her, remembering he often said “whatever” as a teenager. He starts a message to his son but is interrupted when pulled into an urgent meeting.

    12:27 pm. As the meeting unfolds, Raj realises it has minimal impact on his division. Multitasking, he messages his son, replies to an email and mentally reviews his to-do list, including the camp fees.

    12.43 pm. Working on a product proposal, he notices no replies from his son or the florist, but his mother has messaged telling him not to bring anything for dinner since he’s so busy.

    Technology has allowed employees to blend work and family roles simultaneously.
    GaudiLab/Shutterstock

    Zigzag working results

    After speaking with employees and managers, we were able to identify several key points.

    • Zigzag working, characterised by frequent small transitions between work and family responsibilities, occurs throughout the workday.

    • Both men and women regularly zigzag between work and family responsibilities during the day. Gender differences were tested for, finding no significant variation in zigzagging behaviour. This contrasts with prior research that often finds gender differences in work-family conflict.

    • Managers zigzag more than employees.

    • Zigzag working is more prevalent for those working from home. This aligns with the idea that remote work environments make it easier for employees to switch rapidly between work and personal responsibilities.

    • Even those not working from home still reported moderate levels of zigzag working, suggesting this phenomenon is not limited to remote work.

    • Zigzag working was linked to both work-family conflict and happiness, underscoring its unique impact. While managing multiple responsibilities can be challenging, it can also be rewarding – especially when individuals feel a sense of control over their time and tasks.

    The key takeaway? Zigzagging exists, and it is practised across genders, levels of seniority and locations. While it makes workers busier, our research found it also makes them happier.

    Employers should embrace zigzag working

    Recognising zigzagging as a normal work dynamic can foster a more supportive workplace, enhancing employee wellbeing, focus and overall performance. Employers can promote discussions about zigzagging to challenge rigid work-life boundaries.

    Encouraging men to share their zigzagging experiences broadens the conversation beyond the assumption that openly juggling work and family is primarily a women’s issue. Normalising work-family intersections can make them feel more manageable and even gratifying.

    Zigzagging is not a one-size-fits-all approach. Employers should recognise that zigzagging can vary by job role, time constraints and caregiving responsibilities, differing across professions and individuals.

    Technology can further support zigzag working, enabling staff to efficiently manage both work and family responsibilities.

    Zigzagging provides a fresh perspective on the blend of work and family, revealing the interplay between work and family can be simultaneously both beneficial and detrimental. Zigzaggers may be busy, but they are also happy – working as masters of their own universes.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Our work and home lives are blending more than ever – how do we navigate this new ‘zigzag’ reality? – https://theconversation.com/our-work-and-home-lives-are-blending-more-than-ever-how-do-we-navigate-this-new-zigzag-reality-251601

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia stands firm behind its foreign aid in the budget, but the future remains precarious

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Melissa Conley Tyler, Honorary Fellow, Asia Institute, The University of Melbourne

    This week’s budget will come as a relief to Australia’s neighbours in the Indo-Pacific that rely on development assistance. The Albanese government did not follow the lead of US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in cutting its foreign aid.

    The Trump administration froze foreign assistance and dismantled the US Agency for International Development (USAID) when it came into office. Meanwhile, the UK announced 40% aid cuts of its own.

    It is to Australia’s credit this has not happened here. Australia’s development budget remains intact this year and in forward estimates.

    Sensible policymakers seem to recognise that Australia’s strategic circumstances are different. As a nation surrounded by low- and middle-income countries, Australia cannot vacate the field on development issues without enormous reputational, diplomatic and strategic damage.

    This budget shows Australia is committed to its region – with 75% of the foreign assistance budget flowing to the Indo-Pacific – and sees development partnerships as a way to solve shared problems.

    What’s in the budget for aid and development

    The details of the development budget show Australia has been listening to its partners to identify critical gaps and reprioritise funds.

    In the Pacific, funding has risen to a historic high, with no country receiving less aid. There have been changes in focus to respond to the US funding cuts, including programs on HIV/AIDS in Papua New Guinea and Fiji and gender-based violence in the Pacific.

    This fits with Australia’s desire to be a partner of choice – and to prevent an increased Chinese presence in the region.

    In Southeast Asia, Australia has increased its aid to all countries and has shifted funding, particularly in health where the US was a major donor.

    This is in Australia’s interest. A new program on Indonesian human and animal health, for example, will help prevent health system failures in areas such as tuberculosis and polio elimination on Australia’s doorstep.

    Funds have also been reallocated to support civil society organisations working in vital areas like media freedom and human rights, which would have been a casualty in the US cuts.

    There was also a shift in humanitarian funding to Myanmar and Bangladesh, where the US aid withdrawal has left Rohingya refugees in a desperate state.

    Importantly, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade is helping local organisations survive US cuts by allowing temporary flexibility in the use of grant funding to help them continue to deliver essential services.

    Beyond these reprioritisations, the other heartening thing about the budget is its normality.

    It maintains funding for assistive technology for people with disabilities and an Inclusion and Equality Fund to support LGBTQIA+ civil society organisations and human rights defenders. There are programs on maternal health, including reproductive rights.

    The future is still precarious

    However, it would be wrong to think this budget will fill the gaps left by the US withdrawal.

    The ANU Development Policy Centre estimates that traditional OECD donors will cut at least 25% of their aid by 2027. It said, “when that much of a thing goes missing, it’s clearly at risk of collapse”.

    Some development organisations will close their doors, potentially including household names that Australians have donated to for years. This is a time of huge transformation for the sector.

    Another future problem will be maintaining multilateral institutions that rely on US funding – including the World Health Organization, World Food Programme, World Bank and Asian Development Bank. This will require a concerted effort with other countries.

    So, while the Australian budget shows a government deploying current funding as intelligently as possible, there will eventually be limits to this approach.

    In the “new world of uncertainty” described in the treasurer’s budget speech, it simply won’t be possible to meet Australia’s strategic aims and keep development spending at its current rate. It is still far away from 1% of the federal budget.

    At some point, Australia must rethink the trajectory of its international commitments.

    Analysis by the Development Intelligence Lab, a think tank working on development cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, has shown that over the last 25 years, the international parts of the federal budget – defence, intelligence, diplomacy and development – have held steady at around 10%.

    In a time of disruption, this might need to change. In 1949, for example, Australia invested almost 9% of the federal budget on development and diplomacy alone – not including defence.

    Those in the foreign aid sector can celebrate Australia has not pulled back on its commitments like the US and UK. At the same time, we should expect the next government will inevitably be called on to do more.

    Melissa Conley Tyler is Executive Director at the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy & Defence Dialogue (AP4D), an initiative funded by the foreign affairs and defence portfolios and hosted by the Australian Council for International Development..

    – ref. Australia stands firm behind its foreign aid in the budget, but the future remains precarious – https://theconversation.com/australia-stands-firm-behind-its-foreign-aid-in-the-budget-but-the-future-remains-precarious-253028

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Leak of US military plans on Signal is a classic case of ‘shadow IT’. It shows why security systems need to be easy to use

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Toby Murray, Professor of Cybersecurity, School of Computing and Information Systems, The University of Melbourne

    Yesterday, The Atlantic magazine revealed an extraordinary national security blunder in the United States. Top US government officials had discussed plans for a bombing campaign in Yemen against Houthi rebels in a Signal group chat which inadvertently included The Atlantic’s editor in chief, Jeffrey Goldberg.

    This is hardly the first time senior US government officials have used non-approved systems to handle classified information. In 2009, the then US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton fatefully decided to accept the risk of storing her emails on a server in her basement because she preferred the convenience of accessing them using her personal BlackBerry.

    Much has been written about the unprecedented nature of this latest incident. Reporting has suggested the US officials involved may have also violated federal laws that require any communication, including text messages, about official acts to be properly preserved.

    But what can we learn from it to help us better understand how to design secure systems?

    A classic case of ‘shadow IT’

    Signal is regarded by many cybersecurity experts as one of the world’s most secure messaging apps. It has become an established part of many workplaces, including government.

    Even so, it should never be used to store and send classified information. Governments, including in the US, define strict rules for how national security classified information needs to be handled and secured. These rules prohibit the use of non-approved systems, including commercial messaging apps such as Signal plus cloud services such as Dropbox or OneDrive, for sending and storing classified data.

    The sharing of military plans on Signal is a classic case of what IT professionals call “shadow IT”.

    It refers to the all-too-common practice of employees setting up parallel IT infrastructure for business purposes without the approval of central IT administrators.

    This incident highlights the potential for shadow IT to create security risks.

    Government agencies and large organisations employ teams of cybersecurity professionals whose job it is to manage and secure the organisation’s IT infrastructure from cyber threats. At a minimum, these teams need to track what systems are being used to store sensitive information. Defending against sophisticated threats requires constant monitoring of IT systems.

    In this sense, shadow IT creates security blind spots: systems that adversaries can breach while going undetected, not least because the IT security team doesn’t even know these systems exist.

    It’s possible that part of the motivation for the US officials in question using shadow IT systems in this instance might have been avoiding the scrutiny and record-keeping requirements of the official channels. For example, some of the messages in the Signal group chat were set to disappear after one week, and some after four.

    However, we have known for at least a decade that employees also build shadow IT systems not because they are trying to weaken their organisation’s cybersecurity. Instead, a common motivation is that by using shadow IT systems many employees can get their work done faster than when using official, approved systems.

    Usability is key

    The latest incident highlights an important but often overlooked lesson in cybersecurity: whether a security system is easy to use has an outsized impact on the degree to which it helps improve security.

    To borrow from US Founding Father Benjamin Franklin, we might say that a system designer who prioritises security at the expense of usability will produce a system that is neither usable nor secure.

    The belief that to make a system more secure requires making it harder to use is as widespread as it is wrong. The best systems are the ones that are both highly secure and highly usable.

    The reason is simple: a system that is secure yet difficult to use securely will invariably be used insecurely, if at all. Anyone whose inbox auto-complete has caused them to send an email to the wrong person will understand this risk. It likely also explains how The Atlantic’s editor-in-chief might have been mistakenly added by US officials to the Signal group chat.

    While we cannot know for certain, reporting suggests Signal displayed the name of Jeffrey Goldberg to the chat group only as “JG”. Signal doesn’t make it easy to confirm the identity of someone in a group chat, except by their phone number or contact name.

    In this sense, Signal gives relatively few clues about the identities of people in chats. This makes it relatively easy to inadvertently add the wrong “JG” from one’s contact list to a group chat.

    Signal is one of the most secure messaging apps, but should never be used to store and send classified information.
    Ink Drop/Shutterstock

    A highly secure – and highly usable – system

    Fortunately, we can have our cake and eat it too. My own research shows how.

    In collaboration with Australia’s Defence Science and Technology Group, I helped develop what’s known as the Cross Domain Desktop Compositor. This device allows secure access to classified information while being easier to use than traditional solutions.

    It is easier to use because it allows users to connect to the internet. At the same time, it keeps sensitive data physically separate – and therefore secure – but allows it to be displayed alongside internet applications such as web browsers.

    One key to making this work was employing mathematical reasoning to prove the device’s software provided rock-solid security guarantees. This allowed us to marry the flexibility of software with the strong hardware-enforced security, without introducing additional vulnerability.

    Where to from here?

    Avoiding security incidents such as this one requires people following the rules to keep everyone secure. This is especially true when handling classified information, even if doing so requires more work than setting up shadow IT workarounds.

    In the meantime, we can avoid the need for people to work around the rules by focusing more research on how to make systems both secure and usable.

    Toby Murray receives funding from the Department of Defence. He is Director of the Defence Science Institute, which is funded by the Victorian, Tasmanian and Commonwealth Governments. He previously worked for the Department of Defence.

    – ref. Leak of US military plans on Signal is a classic case of ‘shadow IT’. It shows why security systems need to be easy to use – https://theconversation.com/leak-of-us-military-plans-on-signal-is-a-classic-case-of-shadow-it-it-shows-why-security-systems-need-to-be-easy-to-use-253036

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What makes a good search engine? These 4 models can help you use search in the age of AI

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Simon Coghlan, Senior Lecturer in Digital Ethics, Centre for AI and Digital Ethics, School of Computing and Information Systems, The University of Melbourne

    beast01/Shutterstock

    Every day, users ask search engines millions of questions. The information we receive can shape our opinions and behaviour.

    We are often not aware of their influence, but internet search tools sort and rank web content when responding to our queries. This can certainly help us learn more things. But search tools can also return low-quality information and even misinformation.

    Recently, large language models (LLMs) have entered the search scene. While LLMs are not search engines, commercial web search engines have started to include LLM-based artificial intelligence (AI) features into their products. Microsoft’s Copilot and Google’s Overviews are examples of this trend.

    AI-enhanced search is marketed as convenient. But, together with other changes in the nature of search over the last decades, it raises the question: what is a good search engine?

    Our new paper, published in AI and Ethics, explores this. To make the possibilities clearer, we imagine four search tool models: Customer Servant, Librarian, Journalist and Teacher. These models reflect design elements in search tools and are loosely based on matching human roles.

    The four models of search tools

    Customer Servant

    Workers in customer service give people the things they request. If someone asks for a “burger and fries”, they don’t query whether the request is good for the person, or whether they might really be after something else.

    The search model we call Customer Servant is somewhat like the first computer-aided information retrieval systems introduced in the 1950s. These returned sets of unranked documents matching a Boolean query – using simple logical rules to define relationships between keywords (e.g. “cats NOT dogs”).

    Librarian

    As the name suggests, this model somewhat resembles human librarians. Librarian also provides content that people request, but it doesn’t always take queries at face value.

    Instead, it aims for “relevance” by inferring user intentions from contextual information such as location, time or the history of user interactions. Classic web search engines of the late 1990s and early 2000s that rank results and provide a list of resources – think early Google – sit in this category.

    Librarians don’t just retrieve information, they strive for relevance.
    Tyler Olson/Shutterstock

    Journalist

    Journalists go beyond librarians. While often responding to what people want to know, journalists carefully curate that information, at times weeding out falsehoods and canvassing various public viewpoints.

    Journalists aim to make people better informed. The Journalist search model does something similar. It may customise the presentation of results by providing additional information, or by diversifying search results to give a more balanced list of viewpoints or perspectives.

    Teacher

    Human teachers, like journalists, aim at giving accurate information. However, they may exercise even more control: teachers may strenuously debunk erroneous information, while pointing learners to the very best expert sources, including lesser-known ones. They may even refuse to expand on claims they deem false or superficial.

    LLM-based conversational search systems such as Copilot or Gemini may play a roughly similar role. By providing a synthesised response to a prompt, they exercise more control over presented information than classic web search engines.

    They may also try to explicitly discredit problematic views on topics such as health, politics, the environment or history. They might reply with “I can’t promote misinformation” or “This topic requires nuance”. Some LLMs convey a strong “opinion” on what is genuine knowledge and what is unedifying.

    No search model is best

    We argue each search tool model has strengths and drawbacks.

    The Customer Servant is highly explainable: every result can be directly tied to keywords in your query. But this precision also limits the system, as it can’t grasp broader or deeper information needs beyond the exact terms used.

    The Librarian model uses additional signals like data about clicks to return content more aligned with what users are really looking for. The catch is these systems may introduce bias. Even with the best intentions, choices about relevance and data sources can reflect underlying value judgements.

    The Journalist model shifts the focus toward helping users understand topics, from science to world events, more fully. It aims to present factual information and various perspectives in balanced ways.

    This approach is especially useful in moments of crisis – like a global pandemic – where countering misinformation is critical. But there’s a trade-off: tweaking search results for social good raises concerns about user autonomy. It may feel paternalistic, and could open the door to broader content interventions.

    The Teacher model is even more interventionist. It guides users towards what it “judges” to be good information, while criticising or discouraging access to content it deems harmful or false. This can promote learning and critical thinking.

    But filtering or downranking content can also limit choice, and raises red flags if the “teacher” – whether algorithm or AI – is biased or simply wrong. Current language models often have built-in “guardrails” to align with human values, but these are imperfect. LLMs can also hallucinate plausible-sounding nonsense, or avoid offering perspectives we might actually want to hear.

    Staying vigilant is key

    We might prefer different models for different purposes. For example, since teacher-like LLMs synthesise and analyse vast amounts of web material, we may sometimes want their more opinionated perspective on a topic, such as on good books, world events or nutrition.

    Yet sometimes we may wish to explore specific and verifiable sources about a topic for ourselves. We may also prefer search tools to downrank some content – conspiracy theories, for example.

    LLMs make mistakes and can mislead with confidence. As these models become more central to search, we need to stay aware of their drawbacks, and demand transparency and accountability from tech companies on how information is delivered.

    Striking the right balance with search engine design and selection is no easy task. Too much control risks eroding individual choice and autonomy, while too little could leave harms unchecked.

    Our four ethical models offer a starting point for robust discussion. Further interdisciplinary research is crucial to define when and how search engines can be used ethically and responsibly.

    Damiano Spina has received funding from the Australian Research Council and is an Associate Investigator of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society (ADM+S).

    Falk Scholer has received funding from the Australian Research Council and is an Associate Investigator of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society (ADM+S).

    Hui Chia and Simon Coghlan do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What makes a good search engine? These 4 models can help you use search in the age of AI – https://theconversation.com/what-makes-a-good-search-engine-these-4-models-can-help-you-use-search-in-the-age-of-ai-252927

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: PSNA calls on NZ govt to condemn renewed Israel air strikes on Gaza – 320 killed

    Asia Pacific Report

    A national Palestinian advocacy group has called on the Aotearoa New Zealand government to immediately condemn Israel for its resumption today of “genocidal attacks” on the almost 2 million Palestinians trapped in the besieged Gaza enclave.

    Media reports said that more than 320 people had been killed — many of them children — in a wave of predawn attacks by Israel to break the fragile ceasefire that had been holding since mid-January.

    The renewed war on Gaza comes amid a worsening humanitarian crisis that has persisted for 16 days since March 1.

    This followed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s decision to block the entry of all aid and goods, cut water and electricity, and shut down the Strip’s border crossings at the end of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement.

    “Immediate condemnation of Israel’s resumption of attacks on Gaza must come from the New Zealand government”, said co-national chair John Minto of the Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA) in a statement.

    “Israel has breached the January ceasefire agreement multiple times and is today relaunching its genocidal attacks against the Palestinian people of Gaza.”

    Israeli violations
    He said that in the last few weeks Israel had:

    • refused to negotiate the second stage of the ceasefire agreement with Hamas which would see a permanent ceasefire and complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza;
    • Issued a complete ban on food, water, fuel and medical supplies entering Gaza — “a war crime of epic proportions”; and
    • Cut off the electricity supply desperately needed to, for example, operate desalination plants for water supplies.

    ‘Cowardly silence’
    “The New Zealand government response has been a cowardly silence when the people of New Zealand have been calling for sanctions against Israel for its genocide,” Minto said.

    “The government is out of touch with New Zealanders but in touch with US/Israel.

    “Foreign Minister Winston Peters seems to be explaining his silence as ‘keeping his nerve’.

    Minto said that for the past 17 months, minister Peters had condemned every act of Palestinian resistance against 77 years of brutal colonisation and apartheid policies.

    “But he has refused to condemn any of the countless war crimes committed by Israel during this time — including the deliberate use of starvation as a weapon of war.

    “Speaking out to condemn Israel now is our opportunity to force it to reconsider and begin negotiations on stage two of the ceasefire agreement Israel is trying to walk away from.

    “Palestinians and New Zealanders deserve no less.”

    A Netanyahu “Wanted” sign at last Saturday’s pro-Palestinian rally in “Palestinian Corner”, Auckland . . . in reference to the International Criminal Court arrest warrants issued last November against the Israeli Prime Minister and former defence minister Yoav Gallant. Image: APR

    ‘Devastating sounds’
    Al Jazeera reporter Maram Humaid said from Gaza: “We woke up to the devastating sounds of multiple explosions as a series of air attacks targeted various areas across the Gaza Strip, from north to south, including Jabalia, Gaza City, Nuseirat, Deir el-Balah and Khan Younis.”

    Protesters picket outside the US Consulate in Auckland today in protest against Israel resuming air strikes on the besieged Gaza enclave. Image: Kathy Ross/APR

    “The strikes hit homes, residential buildings, schools sheltering displaced people and tents, resulting in a significant number of casualties, including women and children, especially since the attacks occurred during sleeping hours.

    The Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza said at least 232 people had been killed in today’s Israeli raids.

    The Palestinian resistance group Hamas called on people of Arab and Islamic nations — and the “free people of the world” — to take to the streets in protest over the devastating attack.

    Hamas urged people across the world to “raise their voice in rejection of the resumption of the Zionist war of extermination against our people in the Gaza Strip”.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How Netflix has shaped (and shattered) our content landscape over the past decade – and what comes next

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexa Scarlata, Research Fellow, Media & Communication, RMIT University

    Shutterstock

    To mark 10 years since Netflix began operating in Australia, we and our colleagues at the Streaming Industries and Genres Network have published a report that looks at the state of Australia’s streaming industry today – and back at the platforms that have failed over the years.

    It once seemed like Netflix was the be-all and end-all of streaming in Australia. But a decade of competition with other streamers, and stress on local content, paint a very different picture.

    The streaming wars rage on

    Australia’s “streaming wars” kicked off in early 2015 with the arrival of Stan and Netflix, joining smaller players already on the scene. At the time, some industry insiders predicted the new streaming video-on-demand services would quickly consolidate – that there was room for only two major players: Netflix and one other.

    These early assumptions were proven wrong. Instead, Australia has sustained numerous streamers of different sizes, audiences and ownership. The larger, more generalist services such as Netflix, Prime Video and Disney+ compete directly with each other for exclusive content.

    Other niche genre players such as Shudder (horror) and Hayu (reality TV) have managed to stay afloat by catering to a specific audience segment and keeping their prices low.

    There have also been a few fatalities along the way. Quickflix and Presto were early to the market. Both services had gained considerable ground by 2014, with Quicklix leading the way. But they were eventually viewed as sluggish and limited in comparison to Netflix.

    Netflix always on top

    Netflix has always been the most popular streaming service in Australia. One million users had access to the platform within just three months of its arrival in 2015.

    In 2020, analytics firm Ampere Analysis identified Australia as the most highly-penetrated Netflix market in the world, then available in 63% of Australian homes, compared to 50% in the United States.

    In the first half of 2024, it was used by 67% of Australian adults, including some 800,000 people with an ad-tier subscription.

    The global behemoth has produced some notable local titles.

    In January of last year, the series adaptation of Boy Swallows Universe became Netflix’s most successful Australian-made show in its first two weeks on the platform.

    Later in April, the second season of the Heartbreak High reboot debuted at number one in Australia and stayed on the Global Top 10 English TV Series list for three consecutive weeks.



    Read more:
    Streaming, surveillance and the power of suggestion: the hidden cost of 10 years of Netflix

    Collectively, Netflix, Prime Video, Disney+, Paramount+ and Stan spent A$225.2 million on 55 commissioned or co-commissioned Australian programs in the 2023–24 financial year.

    That said, their commitment to the local production sector over the last decade has been limited, as they have no obligation to invest in local content.

    A lack of regulation decimates local genres

    The lack of streaming regulation in Australia, alongside the gradual watering-down of commercial broadcaster obligations, has resulted in the collapse of investment in local content.

    Children’s TV, documentary, drama TV programming and Australian film have all suffered as a result.

    The introduction of multi-national streamers has radically shifted financing practices in Australia, leaving our production sector in distress.

    Last year, we partnered with ACMI to pull together a symposium where streaming industry insiders discussed the deeper implications of streaming on local genres, as well as the opportunities and challenges ahead.

    We heard from Andy Barclay, manager of business and legal affairs at Screen Producer Australia, who said the traditional “jigsaw puzzle” of finance planning based on international territories was all but gone in favour of major streamers offering full funding and “a little premium” upfront.

    But this comes at a cost, as the streamers then control global distribution and hold a tight grip on viewership data. It also means local production can become beholden to the whims of US business interests. As Barclay explain:

    These huge [streaming] companies, their Australian businesses […] we don’t drive their business decisions. It’s what happens over in the United States that drives their business decisions.

    Nonetheless, having fresh, cash-rich and risk-taking players in the Australian content market has led to opportunities for some local creators.

    As Sam Lingham of Australian comedy group Aunty Donna remarked on the same panel:

    Netflix, creatively, were pretty hands-off. We pitched them the show and they were like, ‘yeah, go do that’.

    What’s on the horizon?

    The streaming sector in Australia is now poised to splinter even further.

    Warner Bros Discovery will launch its streaming platform, Max, next week. It will be a real blow to the Foxtel-owned streamer, Binge, which has long touted its exclusive rights to much of the Warner catalogue.

    There are also concerns about the access and affordability of sport. This year, a new AFL broadcast agreement with Fox Sports and Channel Seven saw Saturday night games move behind a paywall. People will now need Kayo Sports or Foxtel to watch these games live.

    Big streamers have also entered the fray. Back in 2016, Netflix said it had no intention of investing in live sport. But we’re now seeing it and other players such as Prime Video, Apple TV+ and YouTube buy into sports rights around the world.

    According to Free TV Chief Executive Bridget Fair

    we saw it [in 2023] with Amazon hoovering up the whole of the World Cup cricket and it’s going to keep happening […] people who previously got a lot of stuff for free are going to have to start paying.

    Finally, many streamers – Netflix, Binge, Prime Video and Stan – have introduced or announced that they will introduce ad-tier subscriptions. Streamers can expect to see better profit margins on their advertising-supported offerings, compared to the monthly subscription model.

    Cheaper, ad-supported subscriptions may prove to be a popular option for viewers stacking multiple subscriptions. Already, 800,000 Australians have signed up to Netflix’s A$7.99 + ads option. But this does make for a disrupted, broadcast-like viewing experience (and one you still have to pay for).

    As the last 10 years of streaming in Australia has shown, the future can be hard to predict when it comes to new players entering established markets. One thing seems certain though – Netflix is here to stay.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Netflix has shaped (and shattered) our content landscape over the past decade – and what comes next – https://theconversation.com/how-netflix-has-shaped-and-shattered-our-content-landscape-over-the-past-decade-and-what-comes-next-251471

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: PNG’s Marape and NZ’s Luxon sign new partnership marking 50 years

    RNZ News

    The prime ministers of New Zealand and Papua New Guinea have signed a new statement of partnership marking 50 years of bilateral relations between the two countries.

    The document — which focuses on education, trade, security, agriculture and fisheries — was signed by Christopher Luxon and James Marape at the Beehive in Wellington last night.

    It will govern the relationship between the two countries through until 2029 and replaces the last agreement signed by Marape in 2021 with then-Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

    Marking the signing, Luxon announced $1 million would be allocated in response to Papua New Guinea’s aspirations to strengthen public sector institutions.

    “That funding will be able to support initiatives like strengthen cooperation between disaster preparedness institutions and also exchanging expertise in the governance of state owned enterprises in particular,” Luxon said.

    In his response Marape acknowledged the long enduring relationship between the government and peoples of New Zealand and Papua New Guinea.

    He said the new statement of partnership was an important blueprint on how the two countries would progress their relationship into the future.

    “Papua New Guinea brings to the table, as far as our relationship is concerned, our close proximity to Asia. We straddle the Pacific and Southeast Asia, we have an affinity to as much as our own affinity with our relations in the Pacific,” Marape said.

    “Our dual presence at APEC continues to ring [sic] home the fact that we belong to a family of nations and we work back to back on many fronts.”

    Meeting Peters
    Today, Marape will meet with Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters and leader of the opposition Chris Hipkins.

    Later in the week, Marape is scheduled to travel to Hamilton where he will meet with the NZ Papua New Guinea Business Council and with Papua New Guinea scholarship recipients at Waikato University.

    James Marape is accompanied by his spouse Rachael Marape and a ministerial delegation including Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko, Trade Minister Richard Maru, Minister for Livestock Seki Agisa and Higher Education Minister Kinoka Feo.

    This is Marape’s first official visit to New Zealand following his re-election as prime minister in the last national elections in 2022.

    According to the PNG government, the visit signals a growing relationship between the two countries, especially in trade and investment, cultural exchange, and the newly-added Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) scheme that New Zealand has extended to Papua New Guineans to work in Aotearoa.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Budget delivers cheaper medicines and more bulk billing but leaves out long-term health reform

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Henry Cutler, Professor and Director, Macquarie University Centre for the Health Economy, Macquarie University

    Less than two months from an election, the Albanese government last night presented a budget that aims to swing the voting pendulum its way.

    Headline health expenditure includes:

    • $8.5 billion to encourage more GP bulk billing and to train doctors and nurses
    • $1.7 billion to help public hospitals reduce their waiting lists
    • $644 million to establish 50 more urgent care clinics
    • $689 million to reduce the price of prescriptions to $25 for non-concessional patients
    • $793 million for women’s health, to provide greater access to contraception, treatment for urinary tract infections and greater access to perimenopause and menopause care.

    These announcements were already strategically made over the past month to maximise media coverage and build election momentum.

    Australians want more access to affordable health care – and the budget delivers this for many. But it doesn’t push the process of health reform forward, which is needed to secure the health system’s long-term sustainability.

    How does this compare to previous health budgets?

    While the budget contains large health expenditure items, a significant amount was not strictly new funding, but already provided for by the government.

    Consequently, the budget only allocates an additional $7.7 billion to health compared to actual spending for 2024-25.

    This increase aligns with steady long-term spending trends from previous years. It reflects a 6.6% increase in nominal spending (when inflation is included), but only a 3.9% increase in real spending (when inflation is taken out).

    Actual and estimated expenditure from the health portfolio

    Health spending as a proportion of the budget is reducing.
    Treasury

    The proportion of the budget spent on health could be considered historically low, projected to be 15.9% for 2025-26.

    It’s unclear whether Australians want more of the budget allocated to health, but there is certainly a need for greater investment.

    Will this health budget improve Australians’ health?

    The Albanese government is trying to kill three birds with one stone with this health budget. It wants to reduce the cost of living, improve health outcomes, and win an election.

    Keeping the cost of living down and improving health services are the top two most important issues for this election. Headline health announcements directly address these two issues.

    However, they also deliver a political benefit by shifting the media spotlight away from Opposition leader Peter Dutton. He was unable to legitimately counter attack headline health announcements given his unpopularity when he was a health minister. Instead, he promised to match some health announcements if elected.

    Increasing bulk-billing rates and reducing prescription prices will directly reduce out-of-pocket costs for many Australians. This will mostly be for people without a concession card.

    Increasing access to urgent care clinics will also help reduce cost of living pressures because they deliver services free of charge.

    Making health care cheaper for patients will also improve health outcomes. Many Australians sometimes choose not to access health care because of its cost, which can lead to worse health outcomes and expensive hospital care.

    The magnitude of any health improvement will depend on how patients respond to cheaper health care.

    More health benefit will go to patients who start seeing their GP rather than staying at home and trying to manage their condition themselves.

    The health benefit will be less for patients who start seeing their GP instead of an emergency department or urgent care clinic, because they are substituting one place of care for another.

    Is this good health policy?

    There is an “opportunity cost” every time the government spends money. Using the health budget to reduce the cost of living means less money to improve the health system elsewhere.

    In that context, this health budget has missed an opportunity to build a more sustainable health system.

    Medicare is not the best way to fund community care from GPs, nurses and allied health providers. It imposes barriers to establishing seamless multidisciplinary team-based care. These include restricting the types of services non-GP clinicians deliver, and not funding enough care coordination. People with chronic disease, such as diabetes and heart disease, often fall through the cracks and become sicker.

    A review of general practice incentives submitted to the health department last year recommended transition towards new funding models. This could include funding models that pay for a bundle of services delivered together as a team, rather than a fee for every service delivered by each team member.

    But payment reform is extremely hard. Medicare has not substantially changed since 1984 when it was first introduced.

    Given this budget allocated $7.9 billion to increase bulk billing alone, and $2.4 billion ongoing, this budget has a missed opportunity to start the payment reform process. This extra funding will reinforce current payment structures, and could have been used as leverage to get GPs over the line on reforming Medicare.

    The government also missed an opportunity to start reforming the health workforce. An independent review, also submitted last year, sought to improve access to primary care, improve care quality, and improve workforce productivity.

    It outlined 18 recommendations, including payment reform, to remove barriers to increase access to care delivered by multidisciplinary teams of doctors, nurses and allied health providers such as psychologists and physiotherapists.

    Again, there was nothing in this budget to suggest this will be pursued in 2025-26.

    What happens next?

    What next usually depends on which party wins the election.

    In this case, Dutton has agreed to match the health budget spending on bulk billing and price reductions for PBS scripts. But the Coalition has not committed to 50 more urgent care clinics.

    Whichever party wins, there is an urgent need to substantially reform health care if our health system is to remain one of the world’s best.



    Read more:
    At a glance: the 2025 federal budget

    Henry Cutler was a member of the Expert Advisory Panel that delivered its final review of general practice incentives mentioned in this article. He received remuneration from the Department of Health and Aged Care for this role.

    – ref. Budget delivers cheaper medicines and more bulk billing but leaves out long-term health reform – https://theconversation.com/budget-delivers-cheaper-medicines-and-more-bulk-billing-but-leaves-out-long-term-health-reform-251921

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What works to prevent violence against women? Here’s what the evidence says

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kristin Diemer, Associate Professor of Sociology, The University of Melbourne

    Journalist and activist Jess Hill’s Quarterly Essay argues Australia’s primary prevention framework to end violence against women isn’t working.

    Hill says the framework focuses too much on addressing gender inequality and changing attitudes, while overlooking crucial opportunities to address drivers of violence such as child maltreatment, alcohol and gambling.

    So what does the evidence say works to prevent violence against women?

    Australia’s plan to reduce and prevent violence

    The World Health Organisation RESPECT framework guides most global intervention programs and includes seven specific strategies to prevent violence against women:

    • Relationship skills strengthening
    • Empowerment of women
    • Services ensured
    • Poverty reduced
    • Environments (schools, workplaces, public spaces) made safe
    • Child and adolescent abuse prevented
    • Transformed attitudes, beliefs and norms.

    These are embedded in the 12 actions of Australia’s prevention framework, called Change the Story, but are not explicitly listed.

    The RESPECT strategies are also included in Australia’s National Plan to End Violence against Women and Children 2022-2032.

    Interventions are usually separated into three complementary, but overlapping approaches: primary (prevention), secondary (early intervention) and tertiary (responses).

    Primary prevention in Change the Story is aimed at addressing the underlying drivers of violence before it occurs. But most interventions have dual purposes of reducing or preventing current and future violence, as we transform into a violence-free community.

    Australia’s national plan includes reducing the harmful use of alcohol, support for children to live free from violence, holding perpetrators to account, changing the law, and promoting gender equality in public and private lives.

    Together, these strategies chip away at harmful underlying attitudes that drive domestic violence.

    Australia’s strategy for preventing violence against women includes holding perpetrators to account.
    Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock

    What does the evidence say works?

    Systematic reviews of interventions to prevent or reduce violence against women and girls find that sufficient investment into the right programs can address the core drivers of violence and lead to a significant reduction and prevention of violence.

    The reviews identify that most successful interventions do not typically separate out prevention from early intervention and response. They focus on gender dynamics, power and control, and locally relevant social structures that disempower women and girls.

    The global program What Works to Prevent Violence against Women and Girls, for example, reviewed 96 evaluations of interventions. Of these, seven interventions had positive effects across all three domains of responding to, reducing and preventing domestic violence.

    None of the effective interventions were the same, but they had common features.

    One of the common indicators of success was that they addressed multiple drivers of violence while being relevant to what was important in the participants’ lives, such as an intervention to reduce HIV or couples counselling. These two interventions were designed to challenge gender inequity and the use of violence, while empowering couples with improved communications skills.

    Effective interventions also commonly included support for survivors, for things such as mental health support, safe spaces, empowerment activities and mediation skills.

    Effective interventions incldue support for survivors and empowerment activites.
    Oleg Elkov/Shutterstock

    Equally important was including work with perpetrators or key influencers, such as other family members or local leaders. One example developed in Tajikistan involved in-laws, which enabled young women to attend and implement ideas from the program into their family life.

    The final two key components of successful interventions were related to implementation of the programs: having the ability to deliver the program with sufficient, well-trained and supported staff, and for a length of time allowing reflection and learning through experience.

    The Transforming Masculinities program in the Democratic Republic of Congo promoted gender equality and positive masculinity within faith communities. Careful selection of staff and volunteers was crucial to the intervention’s success.

    Effective interventions were delivered over 15 to 30 months. They included a combination of community activities and weekly workshops, allowing facilitators to build on content from previous sessions.

    Putting this all together, the most effective programs were rigorously planned and suitable to the client group. They focused on multiple core drivers of violence against women and girls. They worked with perpetrators and community influencers. They also worked with and supported survivors.

    Elements which prevented programs from being effective included short-term or inadequate funding, and a lack of sufficient planning to ensure the intervention was adapted to the client’s context.

    We have clear evidence about they types of programs that can prevent and reduce violence against women and girls, both internationally and in Australia. We also have service providers and program leaders who have been sharing evidence with governments for more than five decades. What we need now is the will and commitment for intensive programming.



    Read more:
    Despite some key milestones since 2000, Australia still has a long way to go on gender equality

    Kristin Diemer has received funding from the Australian Research Council, ANROWS, the Department of Social Services, the Victorian Government and is on the Advisory Group for the Australian National Community Attitudes towards Violence against Women Survey.

    – ref. What works to prevent violence against women? Here’s what the evidence says – https://theconversation.com/what-works-to-prevent-violence-against-women-heres-what-the-evidence-says-252873

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Is this the right budget for these economic times? We asked 5 experts

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matt Garrow, Editorial Web Developer

    Treasurer Jim Chalmers has described the income tax cuts in this week’s federal budget as a “top-up”. They will amount to roughly one cup of coffee a week for every taxpayer in the first year.

    But they will add another A$17 billion to the deficit over coming years, in addition to a raft of previously announced spending measures and very little savings.

    That is against a backdrop of the most uncertain global economic outlook since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–08. Australia may face a real economic shock if trade wars trigger recessions in our major trading partners.

    We asked five experts if this is the right budget for these economic times. Only two agreed, with three saying much more is needed to address long-term structural debt and meaningful economic reform.

    – ref. Is this the right budget for these economic times? We asked 5 experts – https://theconversation.com/is-this-the-right-budget-for-these-economic-times-we-asked-5-experts-252922

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –